Adopting World Health Organization Multimodal Infection Prevention and Control Strategies to Respond to COVID-19, Kenya.

The World Health Organization advocates a multimodal approach to improving infection prevention and control (IPC) measures, which Kenya adopted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Kenya Ministry of Health formed a national IPC committee for policy and technical leadership, coordination, communication, and training. During March-November 2020, a total of 69,892 of 121,500 (57.5%) healthcare workers were trained on IPC. Facility readiness assessments were conducted in 777 health facilities using a standard tool assessing 16 domains. A mean score was calculated for each domain across all facilities. Only 3 domains met the minimum threshold of 80%. The Ministry of Health maintained a national list of all laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections. By December 2020, a total of 3,039 healthcare workers were confirmed to be SARS-CoV-2-positive, an infection rate (56/100,000 workers) 12 times higher than in the general population. Facility assessments and healthcare workers' infection data provided information to guide IPC improvements.

Adapting Longstanding Public Health Collaborations between Government of Kenya and CDC Kenya in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-2021.

Kenya's Ministry of Health (MOH) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Kenya (CDC Kenya) have maintained a 40-year partnership during which measures were implemented to prevent, detect, and respond to disease threats. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the MOH and CDC Kenya rapidly responded to mitigate disease impact on Kenya's 52 million residents. We describe activities undertaken jointly by the MOH and CDC Kenya that lessened the effects of COVID-19 during 5 epidemic waves from March through December 2021. Activities included establishing national and county-level emergency operations centers and implementing workforce development and deployment, infection prevention and control training, laboratory diagnostic advancement, enhanced surveillance, and information management. The COVID-19 pandemic provided fresh impetus for the government of Kenya to establish a national public health institute, launched in January 2022, to consolidate its public health activities and counter COVID-19 and future infectious, vaccine-preventable, and emerging zoonotic diseases.

Incorporating COVID-19 into Acute Febrile Illness Surveillance Systems, Belize, Kenya, Ethiopia, Peru, and Liberia, 2020-2021.

Existing acute febrile illness (AFI) surveillance systems can be leveraged to identify and characterize emerging pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated with ministries of health and implementing partners in Belize, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, and Peru to adapt AFI surveillance systems to generate COVID-19 response information. Staff at sentinel sites collected epidemiologic data from persons meeting AFI criteria and specimens for SARS-CoV-2 testing. A total of 5,501 patients with AFI were enrolled during March 2020-October 2021; >69% underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing. Percentage positivity for SARS-CoV-2 ranged from 4% (87/2,151, Kenya) to 19% (22/115, Ethiopia). We show SARS-CoV-2 testing was successfully integrated into AFI surveillance in 5 low- to middle-income countries to detect COVID-19 within AFI care-seeking populations. AFI surveillance systems can be used to build capacity to detect and respond to both emerging and endemic infectious disease threats.

Scaling Up Testing for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Among Contacts of Index Patients - 20 Countries, 2016-2018.

In 2017, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimated that worldwide, 36.9 million persons were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the virus infection that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Among persons with HIV infection, approximately 75% were aware of their HIV status, leaving 9.4 million persons with undiagnosed infection (1). Index testing, also known as partner notification or contact tracing, is an effective case-finding strategy that targets the exposed contacts of HIV-positive persons for HIV testing services. This report summarizes data from HIV tests using index testing in 20 countries supported by CDC through the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) during October 1, 2016-March 31, 2018. During this 18-month period, 1,700,998 HIV tests with 99,201 (5.8%) positive results were reported using index testing. The positivity rate for index testing was 9.8% among persons aged ≥15 years and 1.5% among persons aged <15 years. During the reporting period, HIV positivity increased 64% among persons aged ≥15 years (from 7.6% to 12.5%) and 67% among persons aged <15 years (from 1.2% to 2.0%). Expanding index testing services could help increase the number of persons with HIV infection who know their status, are initiated onto antiretroviral treatment, and consequently reduce the number of persons who can transmit the virus.

The Relationship Between Distance and Post-operative Visit Attendance Following Medical Male Circumcision in Nyanza Province, Kenya.

To date, there is no research on voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) catchment areas or the relationship between distance to a VMMC facility and attendance at a post-operative follow-up visit. We analyzed data from a randomly selected subset of males self-seeking circumcision at one of 16 participating facilities in Nyanza Province, Kenya between 2008 and 2010. Among 1437 participants, 46.7 % attended follow-up. The median distance from residence to utilized facility was 2.98 km (IQR 1.31-5.38). Nearly all participants (98.8 %) lived within 5 km from a facility, however, 26.3 % visited a facility more than 5 km away. Stratified results demonstrated that among those utilizing fixed facilities, greater distance was associated with higher odds of follow-up non-attendance (OR5.01-10km vs. 0-1km = 1.71, 95 % CI 1.08, 2.70, p = 0.02; OR>10km vs. 0-1 km = 2.80, 95 % CI 1.26, 6.21, p = 0.01), adjusting for age and district of residence. We found 5 km marked the threshold distance beyond which follow-up attendance significantly dropped. These results demonstrate distance is an important predictor of attending follow-up, and this relationship appears to be modified by facility type.

The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare seeking in an urban informal settlement in Nairobi and a rural setting in western Kenya.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread changes and disruptions to healthcare seeking behavior. There are limited studies on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare seeking patterns in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), especially in settings with inequitable access to healthcare in rural and urban informal settlements. We investigated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported healthcare seeking at health facilities and chemists using morbidity data from participants in an ongoing population-based infectious disease surveillance platform in Asembo in Siaya County, a rural setting in western Kenya and Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi County. We described healthcare seeking patterns before (from 1st January 2016 to 12th March 2020) and during the pandemic (from 13th March 2020 to 31st August 2022) by gender and age for any reported illness and select clinical syndromes using frequencies and percentages. We used a generalized estimating equation with an exchangeable correlation structure to assess the effect of the pandemic on healthcare seeking adjusting for gender and age. Overall, there was a 19% (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 0.81; 95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.79-0.83) decline in odds of seeking healthcare at health facilities for any illness in Asembo during the pandemic, and a 30% (aOR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67-0.73) decline in Kibera. Similarly, there was a decline in seeking healthcare by clinical syndromes, e.g., for ARI, aOR: 0.76; 95% CI:0.73-0.79 in Asembo, and aOR: 0.68; 95% CI:0.64-0.72 in Kibera. The pandemic resulted in increased healthcare seeking at chemists (aOR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.20-1.27 in Asembo, and aOR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.35-1.46 in Kibera). This study highlights interruptions to healthcare seeking in resource-limited settings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic resulted in a substantial decline in seeking care at health facilities, and an increase of the same at chemists.

Estimating excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic from a population-based infectious disease surveillance in two diverse populations in Kenya, March 2020-December 2021.

Robust data on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Africa are relatively scarce. Using data from two well-characterized populations in Kenya we aimed to estimate excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The mortality data arise from an ongoing population-based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) platform, which has been operational since 2006 in rural western Kenya (Asembo, Siaya County) and an urban informal settlement (Kibera, Nairobi County), Kenya. PBIDS participants were regularly visited at home (2-3 times a year) by field workers who collected demographic data, including deaths. In addition, verbal autopsy (VA) interviews for all identified deaths are conducted. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates before and during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we compared associated mortality rates between the periods using incidence rate ratios. Excess deaths during the COVID-19 period were also estimated by modelling expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19 by applying a negative binomial regression model on historical mortality data from January 2016. Overall and monthly excess deaths were determined using the P-score metric. Spearman correlation was used to assess whether there is a relationship between the generated P-score and COVID-19 positivity rate. The all-cause mortality rate was higher during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period in Asembo [9.1 (95% CI, 8.2-10.0) vs. 7.8 (95% CI, 7.3-8.3) per 1000 person-years of observation, pyo]. In Kibera, the all-cause mortality rate was slightly lower during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period [2.6 (95% CI, 2.2-3.2 per 1000 pyo) vs. 3.1; 95% CI, 2.7-3.4 per 1000 pyo)]. An increase in all-cause mortality was observed (incidence rate ratio, IRR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04-1.31) in Asembo, unlike in Kibera (IRR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.71-1.09). The notable increase in mortality rate in Asembo was observed among persons aged 50 to 64 years (IRR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.95-3.52), persons aged 65 years and above (5.47; 95% CI, 4.60-6.50) and among females (IRR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.07-1.46). These age and gender differences were not observed in Kibera. We observed an increase in the mortality rate due to acute respiratory infection, including pneumonia (IRR, 1.45;95% CI, 1.03-2.04), and a reduction in the mortality rate due to pulmonary tuberculosis (IRR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.05-0.87) among older children and adults in Asembo. There was no statistically significant change in mortality rates due to leading specific causes of death in Kibera. Overall, during the COVID-19 period observed deaths were higher than expected deaths in Asembo (P-score = 6.0%) and lower than expected in Kibera (P-score = -22.3%).Using well-characterized populations in the two diverse geographic locations, we demonstrate a heterogenous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in Kenya. We observed more deaths than expected during the COVID-19 period in our rural site in western Kenya contrary to the urban site in Nairobi, the capital city in Kenya.

Kenya's experience implementing event-based surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Event-based surveillance (EBS) can be implemented in most settings for the detection of potential health threats by recognition and immediate reporting of predefined signals. Such a system complements existing case-based and sentinel surveillance systems. With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the Kenya Ministry of Health (MOH) modified and expanded an EBS system in both community and health facility settings for the reporting of COVID-19-related signals. Using an electronic reporting tool, m-Dharura, MOH recorded 8790 signals reported, with 3002 (34.2%) verified as events, across both community and health facility sites from March 2020 to June 2021. A subsequent evaluation found that the EBS system was flexible enough to incorporate the addition of COVID-19-related signals during a pandemic and maintain high rates of reporting from participants. Inadequate resources for follow-up investigations to reported events, lack of supportive supervision for some community health volunteers and lack of data system interoperability were identified as challenges to be addressed as the EBS system in Kenya continues to expand to additional jurisdictions.

Prevalence and functional profile of SARS-CoV-2 T cells in asymptomatic Kenyan adults.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa has been characterized by a less severe disease profile than what has been observed elsewhere, but the profile of SARS-CoV-2-specific adaptive immunity in these mainly asymptomatic patients has not, to our knowledge, been analyzed.MethodsWe collected blood samples from residents of rural Kenya (n = 80), who had not experienced any respiratory symptoms or had contact with individuals with COVID-19 and had not received COVID-19 vaccines. We analyzed spike-specific antibodies and T cells specific for SARS-CoV-2 structural (membrane, nucleocapsid, and spike) and accessory (ORF3a, ORF7, ORF8) proteins. Pre-pandemic blood samples collected in Nairobi (n = 13) and blood samples from mild-to-moderately symptomatic COVID-19 convalescent patients (n = 36) living in the urban environment of Singapore were also studied.ResultsAmong asymptomatic Africans, we detected anti-spike antibodies in 41.0% of the samples and T cell responses against 2 or more SARS-CoV-2 proteins in 82.5% of samples examined. Such a pattern was absent in the pre-pandemic samples. Furthermore, distinct from cellular immunity in European and Asian COVID-19 convalescents, we observed strong T cell immunogenicity against viral accessory proteins (ORF3a, ORF8) but not structural proteins, as well as a higher IL-10/IFN-γ cytokine ratio profile.ConclusionsThe high incidence of T cell responses against different SARS-CoV-2 proteins in seronegative participants suggests that serosurveys underestimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in settings where asymptomatic infections prevail. The functional and antigen-specific profile of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in African individuals suggests that environmental factors can play a role in the development of protective antiviral immunity.FundingUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Global Health Protection; the Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council (COVID19RF3-0060, COVID19RF-001, COVID19RF-008, MOH-StaR17Nov-0001).

Diagnostic accuracy of the Panbio COVID-19 antigen rapid test device for SARS-CoV-2 detection in Kenya, 2021: A field evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and timely diagnosis is essential in limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The reference standard, rRT-PCR, requires specialized laboratories, costly reagents, and a long turnaround time. Antigen RDTs provide a feasible alternative to rRT-PCR since they are quick, relatively inexpensive, and do not require a laboratory. The WHO requires that Ag RDTs have a sensitivity ≥80% and specificity ≥97%. METHODS: This evaluation was conducted at 11 health facilities in Kenya between March and July 2021. We enrolled persons of any age with respiratory symptoms and asymptomatic contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases. We collected demographic and clinical information and two nasopharyngeal specimens from each participant for Ag RDT testing and rRT-PCR. We calculated the diagnostic performance of the Panbio™ Ag RDT against the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) rRT-PCR test. RESULTS: We evaluated the Ag RDT in 2,245 individuals where 551 (24.5%, 95% CI: 22.8-26.3%) tested positive by rRT-PCR. Overall sensitivity of the Ag RDT was 46.6% (95% CI: 42.4-50.9%), specificity 98.5% (95% CI: 97.8-99.0%), PPV 90.8% (95% CI: 86.8-93.9%) and NPV 85.0% (95% CI: 83.4-86.6%). Among symptomatic individuals, sensitivity was 60.6% (95% CI: 54.3-66.7%) and specificity was 98.1% (95% CI: 96.7-99.0%). Among asymptomatic individuals, sensitivity was 34.7% (95% CI 29.3-40.4%) and specificity was 98.7% (95% CI: 97.8-99.3%). In persons with onset of symptoms <5 days (594/876, 67.8%), sensitivity was 67.1% (95% CI: 59.2-74.3%), and 53.3% (95% CI: 40.0-66.3%) among those with onset of symptoms >7 days (157/876, 17.9%). The highest sensitivity was 87.0% (95% CI: 80.9-91.8%) in symptomatic individuals with cycle threshold (Ct) values ≤30. CONCLUSION: The overall sensitivity and NPV of the Panbio™ Ag RDT were much lower than expected. The specificity of the Ag RDT was high and satisfactory; therefore, a positive result may not require confirmation by rRT-PCR. The kit may be useful as a rapid screening tool only for symptomatic patients in high-risk settings with limited access to rRT-PCR. A negative result should be interpreted based on clinical and epidemiological information and may require retesting by rRT-PCR.

Heterogenous transmission and seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in two demographically diverse populations with low vaccination uptake in Kenya, March and June 2021.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 has extensively spread in cities and rural communities, and studies are needed to quantify exposure in the population. We report seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in two well-characterized populations in Kenya at two time points. These data inform the design and delivery of public health mitigation measures. Methods: Leveraging on existing population based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) in two demographically diverse settings, a rural site in western Kenya in Asembo, Siaya County, and an urban informal settlement in Kibera, Nairobi County, we set up a longitudinal cohort of randomly selected households with serial sampling of all consenting household members in March and June/July 2021. Both sites included 1,794 and 1,638 participants in the March and June/July 2021, respectively. Individual seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was expressed as a percentage of the seropositive among the individuals tested, accounting for household clustering and weighted by the PBIDS age and sex distribution. Results: Overall weighted individual seroprevalence increased from 56.2% (95%CI: 52.1, 60.2%) in March 2021 to 63.9% (95%CI: 59.5, 68.0%) in June 2021 in Kibera. For Asembo, the seroprevalence almost doubled from 26.0% (95%CI: 22.4, 30.0%) in March 2021 to 48.7% (95%CI: 44.3, 53.2%) in July 2021. Seroprevalence was highly heterogeneous by age and geography in these populations-higher seroprevalence was observed in the urban informal settlement (compared to the rural setting), and children aged <10 years had the lowest seroprevalence in both sites. Only 1.2% and 1.6% of the study participants reported receipt of at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the second round of serosurvey-none by the first round. Conclusions: In these two populations, SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased in the first 16 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. It is important to prioritize additional mitigation measures, such as vaccine distribution, in crowded and low socioeconomic settings.

Factors associated with the safety of voluntary medical male circumcision in Nyanza province, Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: To determine factors associated with the incidence of adverse events associated with voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for the prevention of HIV infection in Nyanza province, Kenya. METHODS: Males aged 12 years or older who underwent VMMC between November 2008 and March 2010 in 16 clinics in three districts were followed through passive surveillance to monitor the incidence of adverse events during and after surgery. A subset of clinic participants was randomly selected for active surveillance post-operatively and was monitored for adverse events through a home-based, in-depth interview and a genital exam 28 to 45 days after surgery. Performance indicators were assessed for 167 VMMC providers. FINDINGS: The adverse event rate was 0.1% intra-operatively and 2.1% post-operatively among clinic system participants (n = 3705), and 7.5% post-operatively among participants under active surveillance (n = 1449). Agreement between systems was moderate (κ: 0.20; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.09-0.32). Providers who performed more than 100 procedures achieved an adverse event rate of 0.7% and 4.3% in the clinic and active surveillance systems, respectively, and had decreased odds of performing a procedure resulting in an adverse event. With provider experience, the mean duration of the procedure also dropped from 24.0 to 15.5 minutes. Among providers who had performed at least 100 procedures, nurses and clinicians provided equivalent services. CONCLUSION: To reduce the adverse event rate, one must ensure that providers achieve a desired level of experience before they perform unsupervised procedures. Adverse events observed by the provider as well as those perceived by the client should both be monitored.

Factors associated with the early resumption of sexual activity following medical male circumcision in Nyanza province, Kenya.

Research has established that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV acquisition in heterosexual men by approximately 60%; however, engaging in sexual activity before the wound is healed may attenuate this protective effect. This prospective study included VMMC clients who were circumcised in Kenya between November, 2008 and March, 2010, aged ≥ 18 years, and randomly selected for an interview and genital examination 28-45 days post-VMMC (N = 1,344). At the time of the interview, 91.3% participants were healed. Overall, 30.7% reported engaging in early sexual activity, usually 3-4 weeks post-VMMC. In a multivariable analysis, being married or cohabitating was the strongest predictor of engaging in early sexual activity. Strategies to reduce engaging in sexual activity during the recommended 42-day abstinence period following VMMC should be explored including re-energizing the effort to include female partners in counseling, mass education campaigns, and targeted text messaging programs for VMMC clients.

First cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection and secondary transmission in Kisumu, Kenya.

We investigated the first 152 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases (125 primary and 27 secondary) and their 248 close contacts in Kisumu County, Kenya. Conducted June 10-October 8, 2020, this study included interviews and sample collection at enrolment and 14-21 days later. Median age was 35 years (IQR 28-44); 69.0% reported COVID-19 related symptoms, most commonly cough (60.0%), headache (55.2%), fever (53.3%) and loss of taste or smell (43.8%). One in five were hospitalized, 34.4% >25 years of age had at least one comorbidity, and all deaths had comorbidities. Adults ≥25 years with a comorbidity were 3.15 (95% CI 1.37-7.26) times more likely to have been hospitalized or died than participants without a comorbidity. Infectious comorbidities included HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria, but no current cases of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, dengue fever, leptospirosis or chikungunya were identified. Thirteen (10.4%) of the 125 primary infections transmitted COVID-19 to 27 close contacts, 158 (63.7%) of whom resided or worked within the same household. Thirty-one percent (4 of 13) of those who transmitted COVID-19 to secondary cases were health care workers; no known secondary transmissions occurred between health care workers. This rapid assessment early in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic identified some context-specific characteristics which conflicted with the national line-listing of cases, and which have been substantiated in the year since. These included over two-thirds of cases reporting the development of symptoms during the two weeks after diagnosis, compared to the 7% of cases reported nationally; over half of cases reporting headaches, and nearly half of all cases reporting loss of taste and smell, none of which were reported at the time by the World Health Organization to be common symptoms. This study highlights the importance of rapid in-depth assessments of outbreaks in understanding the local epidemiology and response measures required.

Outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus in Camels and Probable Spillover Infection to Humans in Kenya.

The majority of Kenya's > 3 million camels have antibodies against Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), although human infection in Africa is rare. We enrolled 243 camels aged 0−24 months from 33 homesteads in Northern Kenya and followed them between April 2018 to March 2020. We collected and tested camel nasal swabs for MERS-CoV RNA by RT-PCR followed by virus isolation and whole genome sequencing of positive samples. We also documented illnesses (respiratory or other) among the camels. Human camel handlers were also swabbed, screened for respiratory signs, and samples were tested for MERS-CoV by RT-PCR. We recorded 68 illnesses among 58 camels, of which 76.5% (52/68) were respiratory signs and the majority of illnesses (73.5% or 50/68) were recorded in 2019. Overall, 124/4692 (2.6%) camel swabs collected from 83 (34.2%) calves in 15 (45.5%) homesteads between April−September 2019 screened positive, while 22 calves (26.5%) recorded reinfections (second positive swab following ≥ 2 consecutive negative tests). Sequencing revealed a distinct Clade C2 virus that lacked the signature ORF4b deletions of other Clade C viruses. Three previously reported human PCR positive cases clustered with the camel infections in time and place, strongly suggesting sporadic transmission to humans during intense camel outbreaks in Northern Kenya.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in standardised first few X cases and household transmission investigations: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

We aimed to estimate the household secondary infection attack rate (hSAR) of SARS-CoV-2 in investigations aligned with the WHO Unity Studies Household Transmission Investigations (HHTI) protocol. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis according to PRISMA 2020 guidelines. We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus and medRxiv/bioRxiv for "Unity-aligned" First Few X cases (FFX) and HHTIs published 1 December 2019 to 26 July 2021. Standardised early results were shared by WHO Unity Studies collaborators (to 1 October 2021). We used a bespoke tool to assess investigation methodological quality. Values for hSAR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted or calculated from crude data. Heterogeneity was assessed by visually inspecting overlap of CIs on forest plots and quantified in meta-analyses. Of 9988 records retrieved, 80 articles (64 from databases; 16 provided by Unity Studies collaborators) were retained in the systematic review; 62 were included in the primary meta-analysis. hSAR point estimates ranged from 2% to 90% (95% prediction interval: 3%-71%; I 2 = 99.7%); I 2 values remained >99% in subgroup analyses, indicating high, unexplained heterogeneity and leading to a decision not to report pooled hSAR estimates. FFX and HHTI remain critical epidemiological tools for early and ongoing characterisation of novel infectious pathogens. The large, unexplained variance in hSAR estimates emphasises the need to further support standardisation in planning, conduct and analysis, and for clear and comprehensive reporting of FFX and HHTIs in time and place, to guide evidence-based pandemic preparedness and response efforts for SARS-CoV-2, influenza and future novel respiratory viruses.

Factors associated with improved MCH epidemiology functioning in state health agencies.

This paper discusses characteristics that are associated with enhanced maternal and child health (MCH) epidemiology functioning in state health agencies. The concept of the "MCH Epidemiology Effort" is introduced as "the epidemiologic work carried out by multiple units and agencies aimed at informing program planning and policy development on behalf of women, children and families." This concept focuses attention on MCH epidemiology functioning at the organizational level rather than on individual MCH epidemiologists. The analysis used data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Each state participated in a telephone interview and submitted material that demonstrated the breadth, depth, and capacity of its MCH Epidemiology Effort. Several organizations, including the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, the Health Resources and Services Administration/Maternal and Child Health Bureau, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provided additional secondary data. The outcome for analysis was a three-category measure of MCH epidemiology functioning. The findings are consistent with, and add specificity to, those from prior assessments. In a multivariable model, agenda-setting by consensus, involvement of external stakeholders, the total of doctorally trained staff, and accessing CDC assignees or other staff were all significantly related to higher level MCH epidemiology functioning (ORs of 6.1, 6.6, 2.5, and 6.4, respectively; P<0.05). Organizational visibility of the MCH Epidemiology Effort and a data environment marked by routine data-sharing and data integration were marginally related. We provide recommendations for action at the state and federal level for advancing evidence-based decision-making in maternal and child health.

Progress Toward the 90-90-90 HIV Targets in Zimbabwe and Identifying Those Left Behind.

OBJECTIVE: We present findings from the nationally representative Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment that characterize Zimbabwe's progress toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 targets. DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional household survey. METHODS: Consenting adults and children in the household were eligible to participate in Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (October 2015-August 2016). Participants completed face-to-face interviews and provided blood for HIV, CD4, viral load, and syphilis testing. Viral load suppression (VLS) was defined as HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL. HIV-positive specimens were tested for the presence of selected antiretroviral drugs. Data were weighted. Analysis was restricted to HIV-positive adults aged 15-64 years. RESULTS: We enrolled 11,098 men and 14,033 women aged 15-64 years. HIV prevalence was 14.1%. Of those living with HIV, 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 74.9 to 78.7) were aware of their HIV status or had detectable antiretroviral levels. Of these, 88.4% (95% CI: 87.1 to 89.7) were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), and of these people, 85.3% (95% CI: 83.4 to 87.1) had VLS. Male sex age 15-34 years and having 1 or more sexual partners were associated with being unaware of one's HIV-positive status. Age <50 years and not taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being less likely to be being both aware and taking ART. Male sex, age <50 years, and taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being on ART but not having VLS. CONCLUSIONS: Zimbabwe has made great strides toward epidemic control. Focusing resources on case finding, particularly among men, people aged <35 years, and sexually active individuals can help Zimbabwe attain 90-90-90 targets.

Seroprevalence and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection in an urban informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya, December 2020.

Introduction: Urban informal settlements may be disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic due to overcrowding and other socioeconomic challenges that make adoption and implementation of public health mitigation measures difficult. We conducted a seroprevalence survey in the Kibera informal settlement, Nairobi, Kenya, to determine the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: Members of randomly selected households from an existing population-based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) provided blood specimens between 27 th November and 5 th December 2020. The specimens were tested for antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Seroprevalence estimates were weighted by age and sex distribution of the PBIDS population and accounted for household clustering. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for individual seropositivity.   Results: Consent was obtained from 523 individuals in 175 households, yielding 511 serum specimens that were tested. The overall weighted seroprevalence was 43.3% (95% CI, 37.4 - 49.5%) and did not vary by sex. Of the sampled households, 122(69.7%) had at least one seropositive individual. The individual seroprevalence increased by age from 7.6% (95% CI, 2.4 - 21.3%) among children (<5 years), 32.7% (95% CI, 22.9 - 44.4%) among children 5 - 9 years, 41.8% (95% CI, 33.0 - 51.1%) for those 10-19 years, and 54.9%(46.2 - 63.3%) for adults (≥20 years). Relative to those from medium-sized households (3 and 4 individuals), participants from large (≥5 persons) households had significantly increased odds of being seropositive, aOR, 1.98(95% CI, 1.17 - 1.58), while those from small-sized households (≤2 individuals) had increased odds but not statistically significant, aOR, 2.31 (95% CI, 0.93 - 5.74).  Conclusion: In densely populated urban settings, close to half of the individuals had an infection to SARS-CoV-2 after eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. This highlights the importance to prioritize mitigation measures, including COVID-19 vaccine distribution, in the crowded, low socioeconomic settings.

High seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 but low infection fatality ratio eight months after introduction in Nairobi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The lower than expected COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Africa has been attributed to multiple factors, including weak surveillance. This study estimated the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections eight months into the epidemic in Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: A population-based, cross-sectional survey was conducted using multi-stage random sampling to select households within Nairobi in November 2020. Sera from consenting household members were tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence was estimated after adjusting for population structure and test performance. Infection fatality ratios (IFRs) were calculated by comparing study estimates with reported cases and deaths. RESULTS: Among 1,164 individuals, the adjusted seroprevalence was 34.7% (95% CI 31.8-37.6). Half of the enrolled households had at least one positive participant. Seropositivity increased in more densely populated areas (spearman's r=0.63; p=0.009). Individuals aged 20-59 years had at least two-fold higher seropositivity than those aged 0-9 years. The IFR was 40 per 100,000 infections, with individuals ≥60 years old having higher IFRs. CONCLUSION: Over one-third of Nairobi residents had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 by November 2020, indicating extensive transmission. However, the IFR was >10-fold lower than that reported in Europe and the USA, supporting the perceived lower morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.