Clinical utility of the 4S-AF scheme in predicting progression of atrial fibrillation: data from the RACE V study.

AIMS: The recent 4S-AF (scheme proposed by the 2020 ESC AF guidelines to address stroke risk, symptom severity, severity of AF burden and substrate of AF to provide a structured phenotyping of AF patients in clinical practice to guide therapy and assess prognosis) scheme has been proposed as a structured scheme to characterize patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to assess whether the 4S-AF scheme predicts AF progression in patients with self-terminating AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed 341 patients with self-terminating AF included in the well-phenotyped Reappraisal of Atrial Fibrillation: Interaction between HyperCoagulability, Electrical remodelling, and Vascular Destabilization in the Progression of AF (RACE V) study. Patients had continuous monitoring with implantable loop recorders or pacemakers. AF progression was defined as progression to persistent or permanent AF or progression of self-terminating AF with >3% burden increase. Progression of AF was observed in 42 patients (12.3%, 5.9% per year). Patients were given a score based on the components of the 4S-AF scheme. Mean age was 65 [interquartile range (IQR) 58-71] years, 149 (44%) were women, 103 (49%) had heart failure, 276 (81%) had hypertension, and 38 (11%) had coronary artery disease. Median CHA2DS2-VASc (the CHA2DS2-VASc score assesses thromboembolic risk. C, congestive heart failure/left ventricular dysfunction; H, hypertension; A2, age ≥ 75 years; D, diabetes mellitus; S2, stroke/transient ischaemic attack/systemic embolism; V, vascular disease; A, age 65-74 years; Sc, sex category (female sex)) score was 2 (IQR 2-3), and median follow-up was 2.1 (1.5-2.6) years. The average score of the 4S-AF scheme was 4.6 ± 1.4. The score points from the 4S-AF scheme did not predict the risk of AF progression [odds ratio (OR) 1.1 95% CI 0.88-1.41, C-statistic 0.53]. However, excluding the symptoms domain, resulting in the 3S-AF (4S-AF scheme without the domain symptom severity, only including stroke risk, severity of AF burden and substrate of AF) scheme, predicted the risk of progression (OR 1.59 95% CI 1.15-2.27, C-statistic 0.62) even after adjusting for sex and age. CONCLUSIONS: In self-terminating AF patients, the 4S-AF scheme does not predict AF progression. The 3S-AF scheme, excluding the symptom domain, may be a more appropriate score to predict AF progression. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02726698 for RACE V.

A simulated maximum likelihood procedure for analyzing imprecise trade-off thresholds between the benefits and harms of medicines.

Stated preference studies in which information on the willingness to trade-off between the benefits and harms of medicines is elicited from patients or other stakeholders are becoming increasingly mainstream. Such trade-offs can mathematically be represented by a weighted additive function, with the weights, whose ratios determine how much an individual is willing to trade-off between the treatment attributes, being the response vector for the statistical analysis. One way of eliciting trade-off information is through multi-dimensional thresholding (MDT), which is a bisection-based approach that results in increasingly tight bounds on the values of the weights ratios. While MDT is cognitively less demanding than other, more direct elicitation methods, its use complicates the statistical analysis as it results in weights data that are region censored. In this article, we present a simulated maximum likelihood (SML) procedure for fitting a Dirichlet population model directly to the region-censored weights data and perform a series of computational experiments to compare the proposed SML procedure to a naive approach in which a Dirichlet distribution is fitted to the centroids of the weights boundaries obtained with MDT. The results indicate that the SML procedure consistently outperformed the centroid-based approach, with the centroid-based approach requiring three bisection steps per trade-off to achieve a similar precision as the SML procedure with one bisection step per trade-off. Using the newly proposed SML procedure, MDT can be applied with smaller sample sizes or with fewer questions compared to the more naïve centroid-based approach that was applied in previous applications of MDT.

A heart failure phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute heart failure: results from an individual participant data meta-analysis of four prospective European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models developed in general cohorts with a mixture of heart failure (HF) phenotypes, though more widely applicable, are also likely to yield larger prediction errors in settings where the HF phenotypes have substantially different baseline mortality rates or different predictor-outcome associations. This study sought to use individual participant data meta-analysis to develop an HF phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute HF. METHODS: Four prospective European cohorts were used to develop an HF phenotype stratified model. Cox model with two rounds of backward elimination was used to derive the prognostic index. Weibull model was used to obtain the baseline hazard functions. The internal-external cross-validation (IECV) approach was used to evaluate the generalizability of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: 3577 acute HF patients were included, of which 2368 were classified as having HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (HFrEF; EF < 40%), 588 as having HF with midrange EF (HFmrEF; EF 40-49%), and 621 as having HF with preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥ 50%). A total of 11 readily available variables built up the prognostic index. For four of these predictor variables, namely systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, the effect differed across the three HF phenotypes. With a weighted IECV-adjusted AUC of 0.79 (0.74-0.83) for HFrEF, 0.74 (0.70-0.79) for HFmrEF, and 0.74 (0.71-0.77) for HFpEF, the model showed excellent discrimination. Moreover, there was a good agreement between the average observed and predicted 1-year mortality risks, especially after recalibration of the baseline mortality risks. CONCLUSIONS: Our HF phenotype stratified model showed excellent generalizability across four European cohorts and may provide a useful tool in HF phenotype-specific clinical decision-making.

The Additive Prognostic Value of Serial Plasma Interleukin-6 Levels over Changes in Brain Natriuretic Peptide in Patients with Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Elevated plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations are frequently observed in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, the predictive value of serial IL-6 measurements beyond brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) remains poorly characterized. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a retrospective analysis of the PROTECT cohort (2033 patients with AHF). Plasma IL-6 and BNP levels were determined on days 1, 2, 7 and 14 after admission for AHF in 1591 (78.3%), 1462 (71.9%), 1445 (71.1%) and 1451 (71.4%) patients, respectively. The primary endpoint was 180-day all-cause mortality. The median day-1 IL-6 concentration was 11.1 pg/mL (IQR: 6.6, 20.9) and decreased to 10.1 pg/mL (IQR: 5.6-18.5) at day-7. Higher cross-sectional IL-6 concentrations at all time-points predicted the primary endpoint, independent of a risk model for this cohort and changes in BNP. Each doubling of IL-6 between day-1 and day-7 predicted the primary endpoint independent of baseline IL-6 concentrations, the risk model, baseline BNP and changes in BNP [HR (95% CI): 1.18 (1.07-1.30), p=0.0013]. Collectively, 214 (17%) patients experienced at least a doubling of their IL-6 concentrations between day-1 and day-7. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the temporal evolution patterns of IL-6 in patients with AHF have additive prognostic value independent of changes in BNP.

Antiarrhythmic drugs in patients with early persistent atrial fibrillation and heart failure: results of the RACE 3 study.

AIMS: Maintaining sinus rhythm in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) is challenging. We explored the efficacy of class I and III antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) in patients with persistent AF and mild to moderate heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In the RACE 3 trial, patients with early persistent symptomatic AF and short history of mild to moderate HF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were randomized to targeted or conventional therapy. Both groups received AF and HF guideline-driven treatment. Additionally, the targeted-group received mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, statins, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or receptor blockers, and cardiac rehabilitation. Class I and III AADs could be instituted in case of symptomatic recurrent AF. Eventually, pulmonary vein isolation could be performed. Primary endpoint was sinus rhythm on 7-day Holter after 1-year. Included were 245 patients, age 65 ± 9 years, 193 (79%) men, AF history was 3 (2-6) months, HF history 2 (1-4) months, 72 (29.4%) had HF with reduced LVEF. After baseline electrical cardioversion (ECV), 190 (77.6%) had AF recurrences; 108 (56.8%) received class I/III AADs; 19 (17.6%) flecainide, 36 (33.3%) sotalol, 3 (2.8%) dronedarone, 50 (46.3%) amiodarone. At 1-year 73 of 108 (68.0%) patients were in sinus rhythm, 44 (40.7%) without new AF recurrences. Maintenance of sinus rhythm was significantly better with amiodarone [n = 29/50 (58%)] compared with flecainide [n = 6/19 (32%)] and sotalol/dronedarone [n = 9/39 (23%)], P = 0.0064. Adverse events occurred in 27 (25.0%) patients, were all minor and reversible. CONCLUSION: In stable HF patients with early persistent AF, AAD treatment was effective in nearly half of patients, with no serious adverse effects reported.

Identifying optimal doses of heart failure medications in men compared with women: a prospective, observational, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Guideline-recommended doses of angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs), and ß blockers are similar for men and women with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), even though there are known sex differences in pharmacokinetics of these drugs. We hypothesised that there might be sex differences in the optimal dose of ACE inhibitors or ARBs and ß blockers in patients with HFrEF. METHODS: We did a post-hoc analysis of BIOSTAT-CHF, a prospective study in 11 European countries of patients with heart failure in whom initiation and up-titration of ACE inhibitors or ARBs and ß blockers was encouraged by protocol. We included only patients with left ventricular ejection fraction less than 40%, and excluded those who died within the first 3 months. Primary outcome was a composite of time to all-cause mortality or hospitalisation for heart failure. Findings were validated in ASIAN-HF, an independent cohort of 3539 men and 961 women with HFrEF. FINDINGS: Among 1308 men and 402 women with HFrEF from BIOSTAT-CHF, women were older (74 [12] years vs 70 [12] years, p<0·0001) and had lower bodyweights (72 [16] kg vs 85 [18] kg, p<0·0001) and heights (162 [7] cm vs 174 [8] cm, p<0·0001) than did men, although body-mass index did not differ significantly. A similar number of men and women reached guideline-recommended target doses of ACE inhibitors or ARBs (99 [25%] vs 304 [23%], p=0·61) and ß blockers (57 [14%] vs 168 [13%], p=0·54). In men, the lowest hazards of death or hospitalisation for heart failure occurred at 100% of the recommended dose of ACE inhibitors or ARBs and ß blockers, but women showed approximately 30% lower risk at only 50% of the recommended doses, with no further decrease in risk at higher dose levels. These sex differences were still present after adjusting for clinical covariates, including age and body surface area. In the ASIAN-HF registry, similar patterns were observed for both ACE inhibitors or ARBs and ß blockers, with women having approximately 30% lower risk at 50% of the recommended doses, with no further benefit at higher dose levels. INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that women with HFrEF might need lower doses of ACE inhibitors or ARBs and ß blockers than men, and brings into question what the true optimal medical therapy is for women versus men. FUNDING: European Commission.

Serial Measurements of N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Serum Level for Monitoring Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in Children.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between serially measured N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) serum levels and disease severity in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and to assess its predictive value for death or (heart-)lung transplantation. STUDY DESIGN: This was a longitudinal cohort study of the Dutch National Network for Pediatric Pulmonary Hypertension conducted between 2003 and 2017. Data on NT-proBNP and disease severity markers (World Health Organization Functional Class [WHO-FC], 6-minute walking distance [6MWD], and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion [TAPSE]) were collected every 3 to 6 months from 82 children with PAH. The outcome measure was death or (heart-)lung transplantation. Also, NT-proBNP levels over time were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. RESULTS: The median patient age was 8.8 years (IQR, 4.6-13.5 years), and 61% were female. The median duration of follow-up was 4.8 years (IQR, 1.9-10.0 years). At all times during the course of disease, higher NT-proBNP levels were associated with higher WHO-FC (ß = 0.526; 95% CI, 0.451-0.600), lower 6MWD z-score (ß = -0.587; 95% CI, -0.828 to -0.346), lower TAPSE z-score (ß = -0.783; 95% CI, -1.016 to -0.549), and elevated risk of death or (heart-)lung transplantation (hazard ratio 16.61; 95% CI, 7.81-35.33). Compared with survivors, nonsurvivors had NT-proBNP levels that were higher at first measurement and increased exponentially over time (P = .005). Changes in NT-proBNP serum level over time were predictive of outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Throughout the disease course of pediatric PAH, serial measurements of NT-proBNP are associated with disease severity and transplant-free survival. Monitoring NT-proBNP levels over time provides important prognostic information that can support clinical decision making in combination with other established prognostic markers.

The Genetic Epidemiology of Pediatric Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH)-associated gene mutations, and other genetic characteristics in a national cohort of children with PAH from the Dutch National registry and to explore genotype-phenotype associations and outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Children (n = 70) diagnosed with idiopathic PAH, heritable PAH, PAH associated with congenital heart disease with coincidental shunt (PAH-congenital heart disease group 3), PAH after closure of a cardiac shunt (PAH-congenital heart disease group 4), or PAH associated with other noncardiac conditions were enrolled. Targeted next-generation sequencing was performed on PAH-associated genes (BMPR2, ACVRL1, EIF2AK4, CAV1, ENG, KCNK3, SMAD9, and TBX4). Also, children were tested for specific genetic disorders in case of clinical suspicion. Additionally, children were tested for copy number variations. RESULTS: Nineteen children (27%) had a PAH-associated gene mutation/variant: BMPR2 n = 7, TBX4 n = 8, ACVRL1 n = 1, KCNK3 n = 1, and EIF2AK4 n = 2. Twelve children (17%) had a genetic disorder with an established association with PAH (including trisomy 21 and cobalamin C deficiency). In another 16 children (23%), genetic disorders without an established association with PAH were identified (including Noonan syndrome, Beals syndrome, and various copy number variations). Survival rates differed between groups and was most favorable in TBX4 variant carriers. CONCLUSIONS: Children with PAH show a high prevalence of genetic disorders, not restricted to established PAH-associated genes. Genetic architecture could play a role in risk-stratified care management in pediatric PAH.

Pragmatic rules for comparability of biological medicinal products.

Comparability is a key concept in the evaluation of both manufacturing changes and biosimilars. It constitutes a pragmatic and flexible approach which recognises that biologicals are inherently variable and that minor variations in quality attributes are often clinically irrelevant. In this discussion paper, we argue that comparability exercises rely on a number of pragmatic criteria. These criteria have been remarkably robust for 20 years of comparability exercises; however, the increased scrutiny of biosimilar applications provides an impetus for both codification and improvement of criteria for establishing comparability. Such a more rigorous, methodologically sound, approach towards comparability seems both feasible and beneficial.

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide serum levels reflect attrition of the Fontan circulation.

OBJECTIVE: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide has an established role in the diagnosis and prognosis of heart failure. In Fontan patients, this peptide is often increased, but its diagnostic value in this particular non-physiologic, univentricular circulation is unclear. We investigated whether N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide represents ventricular function or other key variables in Fontan patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five consecutive Fontan patients ≥10 years old who attended the outpatient clinic of the Center for Congenital Heart Diseases in 2012-2013 were included. Time since Fontan completion was 16 ± 9 years. Median N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide was 114 (61-264) ng/l and was higher than gender-and age-dependent normal values in 54% of the patients. Peptide Z-scores were higher in patients in NYHA class III/IV compared to those in class I/II, but did not correlate with ventricular function assessed by MRI and echocardiography, nor with peak exercise capacity. Instead, peptide Z-scores significantly correlated with follow-up duration after Fontan completion (p < 0.001), right ventricular morphology (p = 0.004), indexed ventricular mass (p = 0.001), and inferior caval vein diameter (p < 0.001) (adjusted R2 = 0.615). CONCLUSIONS: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels in Fontan patients correlate with functional class, but do not necessarily indicate ventricular dysfunction. Increased peptide levels were associated with a longer existence of the Fontan circulation, morphologic ventricular characteristics, and signs of increased systemic venous congestion. Since the latter are known to be key determinants of the performance of the Fontan circulation, these findings suggest increase in N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels to indicate attrition of the Fontan circulation, independent of ventricular function.

Conditional Financing of Drugs in the Netherlands: Past, Present, and Future-Results From Stakeholder Interviews.

BACKGROUND: Conditional financing (CF) of hospital drugs was implemented in the Netherlands as a form of managed entry agreements between 2006 and 2012. CF was a 4-year process comprising 3 stages: initial health technology assessment of the drug (T = 0), conduct of outcomes research studies, and reassessment of the drug (T = 4). OBJECTIVES: To analyze stakeholder experiences in implementing CF in practice. METHODS: Public and private stakeholders were approached for participation in stakeholder interviews through standardized email invitations. An interview guide was developed to guide discussions that covered the following topics: perceived aims of CF, functioning of CF, impact of CF, and conclusions and future perspectives. Extensive summaries were generated for each interview and subsequently used for directed content analysis. RESULTS: Thirty stakeholders were interviewed. Differences emerged among the stakeholders on the perceived aims of CF. Conversely, there was some agreement among stakeholders on the shortcomings in the functioning of CF, the positive impact of CF on the Dutch healthcare setting, and improvement points for CF. CONCLUSIONS: Despite stakeholders' belief that CF either did not meet its aims or only partially did so, there was agreement on the need for new policy to address the same aims of CF in the future. Nevertheless, stakeholders diverged on whether CF should be improved on the basis of learnings identified and reintroduced into practice or replaced with new policy schemes.

Targeted therapy of underlying conditions improves quality of life in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation: results of the RACE 3 study.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) reduces quality of life (QoL). We aim to evaluate effects of targeted therapy of underlying conditions on QoL in patients with AF and heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: The Routine versus Aggressive risk factor driven upstream rhythm Control for prevention of Early atrial fibrillation in heart failure (RACE 3) study randomized patients with early persistent AF and HF to targeted or conventional therapy. Both groups received guideline-driven treatment. The targeted group received four additional therapies: mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists; statins; angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and/or receptor blockers; and cardiac rehabilitation including physical activity, dietary restrictions, and counselling. Quality of life was analysed in 230 patients at baseline and 1 year with available Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36), University of Toronto AF Severity Scale (AFSS) questionnaires, and European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) class. Improvements in SF-36 subscales were larger in the targeted group for physical functioning (Δ12 ± 19 vs. Δ6 ± 22, P = 0.007), physical role limitations (Δ32 ± 41 vs. Δ17 ± 45, P = 0.018), and general health (Δ8 ± 16 vs. Δ0 ± 17, P < 0.001). Dyspnoea at rest improved more (Δ-0.8 ± 1.3 vs. Δ-0.4 ± 1.2, P = 0.018) and EHRA class was lower at 1-year follow-up in the targeted group. Patients with AF at 1 year, improvement in physical functioning (Δ9 ± 9 vs. Δ-3 ± 16, P = 0.001), general health (Δ7 ± 16 vs. Δ-7 ± 19, P = 0.004), and social functioning (Δ6 ± 23 vs. Δ-4 ± 16, P = 0.041) were larger in the targeted group. CONCLUSION: A strategy aiming to treat underlying conditions improved QoL more compared with conventional therapy in patients with early persistent AF and HF. Its benefit was even observed in patients in AF at 1 year. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00877643.

Targeted therapy of underlying conditions improves sinus rhythm maintenance in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation: results of the RACE 3 trial.

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a progressive disease. Targeted therapy of underlying conditions refers to interventions aiming to modify risk factors in order to prevent AF. We hypothesised that targeted therapy of underlying conditions improves sinus rhythm maintenance in patients with persistent AF. Methods and results: We randomized patients with early persistent AF and mild-to-moderate heart failure (HF) to targeted therapy of underlying conditions or conventional therapy. Both groups received causal treatment of AF and HF, and rhythm control therapy. In the intervention group, on top of that, four therapies were started: (i) mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), (ii) statins, (iii) angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and/or receptor blockers, and (iv) cardiac rehabilitation including physical activity, dietary restrictions, and counselling. The primary endpoint was sinus rhythm at 1 year during 7 days of Holter monitoring. Of 245 patients, 119 were randomized to targeted and 126 to conventional therapy. The intervention led to a contrast in MRA (101 [85%] vs. 5 [4%] patients, P < 0.001) and statin use (111 [93%] vs. 61 [48%], P < 0.001). Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers were not different. Cardiac rehabilitation was completed in 109 (92%) patients. Underlying conditions were more successfully treated in the intervention group. At 1 year, sinus rhythm was present in 89 (75%) patients in the intervention vs. 79 (63%) in the conventional group (odds ratio 1.765, lower limit of 95% confidence interval 1.021, P = 0.042). Conclusions: RACE 3 confirms that targeted therapy of underlying conditions improves sinus rhythm maintenance in patients with persistent AF. Trial Registration number: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00877643.

Comparing biomarker profiles of patients with heart failure: atrial fibrillation vs. sinus rhythm and reduced vs. preserved ejection fraction.

Aims: The clinical correlates and consequences of atrial fibrillation (AF) might be different between heart failure with reduced vs. preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF vs. HFpEF). Biomarkers may provide insights into underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of AF in these different heart failure (HF) phenotypes. Methods and results: We performed a retrospective analysis of the BIOlogy Study to TAilored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure (BIOSTAT-CHF), which was an observational cohort. We studied 2152 patients with HFrEF [ejection fraction (EF < 40%)], of which 1419 were in sinus rhythm (SR) and 733 had AF. Another 524 patients with HFpEF (EF ≥50%) were studied, of which 286 in SR and 238 with AF. For the comparison of biomarker profiles, 92 cardiovascular risk markers were measured (Proseek® Olink Cardiovascular III panel). The circulating risk marker pattern observed in HFrEF was different than the pattern in HFpEF: in HFrEF, AF was associated with higher levels of 77 of 92 (84%) risk markers compared to SR; whereas in HFpEF, many more markers were higher in SR than in AF. Over a median follow-up of 21 months, AF was associated with increased mortality risk [multivariable hazard ratio (HR) of 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-1.48, P = 0.002]; there was no significant interaction between heart rhythm and EF group on outcome. Conclusion: In patients with HFrEF, the presence of AF was associated with a homogeneously elevated cardiovascular risk marker profile. In contrast, in patients with HFpEF, the presence of AF was associated with a more scattered risk marker profile, suggesting differences in underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of AF in these HF phenotypes.

Patient-specific evolution of renal function in chronic heart failure patients dynamically predicts clinical outcome in the Bio-SHiFT study.

Renal dysfunction is an important component of chronic heart failure (CHF), but its single assessment does not sufficiently reflect clinically silent progression of CHF prior to adverse clinical outcome. Therefore, we aimed to investigate temporal evolutions of glomerular and tubular markers in 263 stable patients with CHF, and to determine if their patient-specific evolutions during this clinically silent period can dynamically predict clinical outcome. We determined the risk of clinical outcome (composite endpoint of Heart Failure hospitalization, cardiac death, Left Ventricular Assist Device placement, and heart transplantation) in relation to marker levels, slopes and areas under their trajectories. In each patient, the trajectories were estimated using repeatedly measured glomerular markers: creatinine/estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), cystatin C (CysC), and tubular markers: urinary N-acetyl-beta-D-glucosaminidase (NAG) and kidney injury molecule (KIM)-1, plasma and urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL). During 2.2 years of follow-up, we collected on average 8 urine and 9 plasma samples per patient. All glomerular markers predicted the endpoint (univariable hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] per 20% increase: creatinine: 1.18[1.07-1.31], CysC: 2.41[1.81-3.41], and per 20% eGFR decrease: 1.13[1.05-1.23]). Tubular markers, NAG, and KIM-1 also predicted the endpoint (NAG: 1.06[1.01-1.11] and KIM-1: 1.08[1.04-1.11]). Larger slopes were the strongest predictors (creatinine: 1.57[1.39-1.84], CysC: 1.76[1.52-2.09], eGFR: 1.59[1.37-1.90], NAG: 1.26[1.11-1.44], and KIM-1: 1.64[1.38-2.05]). Associations persisted after multivariable adjustment for clinical characteristics. Thus, during clinically silent progression of CHF, glomerular and tubular functions deteriorate, but not simultaneously. Hence, patient-specific evolutions of these renal markers dynamically predict clinical outcome in patients with CHF.

Twenty-eight genetic loci associated with ST-T-wave amplitudes of the electrocardiogram.

The ST-segment and adjacent T-wave (ST-T wave) amplitudes of the electrocardiogram are quantitative characteristics of cardiac repolarization. Repolarization abnormalities have been linked to ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. We performed the first genome-wide association meta-analysis of ST-T-wave amplitudes in up to 37 977 individuals identifying 71 robust genotype-phenotype associations clustered within 28 independent loci. Fifty-four genes were prioritized as candidates underlying the phenotypes, including genes with established roles in the cardiac repolarization phase (SCN5A/SCN10A, KCND3, KCNB1, NOS1AP and HEY2) and others with as yet undefined cardiac function. These associations may provide insights in the spatiotemporal contribution of genetic variation influencing cardiac repolarization and provide novel leads for future functional follow-up.

Individual Trade-Offs Between Possible Benefits and Risks of Cancer Treatments: Results from a Stated Preference Study with Patients with Multiple Myeloma.

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to elicit the preferences of patients with multiple myeloma regarding the possible benefits and risks of cancer treatments and to illustrate how such data may be used to estimate patients' acceptance of new treatments. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with multiple myeloma from the cancer charity Myeloma UK were invited to participate in an online survey based on multicriteria decision analysis and swing weighting to elicit individual stated preferences for the following attributes: (a) 1-year progression-free survival (PFS, ranging from 50% to 90%), (b) mild or moderate toxicity for 2 months or longer (ranging from 85% to 45%), and (c) severe or life-threatening toxicity (ranging from 80% to 20%). RESULTS: A total of 560 participants completed the survey. The average weight given to PFS was 0.54, followed by 0.32 for severe or life-threatening toxicity and 0.14 for mild or moderate chronic toxicity. Participants who ranked severe or life-threatening toxicity above mild or moderate chronic toxicity (56%) were more frequently younger, working, and looking after dependent family members and had more frequently experienced severe or life-threatening side effects. The amount of weight given to PFS did not depend on any of the collected covariates. The feasibility of using the collected preference data to estimate the patients' acceptance of specific multiple myeloma treatments was demonstrated in a subsequent decision analysis example. CONCLUSION: Stated preference studies provide a systematic approach to gain knowledge about the distribution of preferences in the population and about what this implies for patients' acceptance of specific treatments. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This study demonstrated how quantitative preference statements from a large group of participants can be collected through an online survey and how such information may be used to explore the acceptability of specific treatments based on the attributes studied. Results from such studies have the potential to become an important new tool for gathering patient views and studying heterogeneity in preferences in a systematic way, along with other methods, such as focus groups and expert opinions.

BiobankUniverse: automatic matchmaking between datasets for biobank data discovery and integration.

MOTIVATION: Biobanks are indispensable for large-scale genetic/epidemiological studies, yet it remains difficult for researchers to determine which biobanks contain data matching their research questions. RESULTS: To overcome this, we developed a new matching algorithm that identifies pairs of related data elements between biobanks and research variables with high precision and recall. It integrates lexical comparison, Unified Medical Language System ontology tagging and semantic query expansion. The result is BiobankUniverse, a fast matchmaking service for biobanks and researchers. Biobankers upload their data elements and researchers their desired study variables, BiobankUniverse automatically shortlists matching attributes between them. Users can quickly explore matching potential and search for biobanks/data elements matching their research. They can also curate matches and define personalized data-universes. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: BiobankUniverse is available at http://biobankuniverse.com or can be downloaded as part of the open source MOLGENIS suite at http://github.com/molgenis/molgenis. CONTACT: m.a.swertz@rug.nl. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.