Development and validation of a new prognostic model for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: Cirrhotic patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the intensive care unit (ICU) have a poor but variable prognoses. Accurate prognosis evaluation can guide the rational management of patients with ACLF. However, existing prognostic scores for ACLF in the ICU environment lack sufficient accuracy. AIM: To develop a new prognostic model for patients with ACLF in ICU. METHODS: Data from 938 ACLF patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database were used to develop a new prognostic model (MIMIC ACLF) for ACLF. Discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of MIMIC ACLF were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. MIMIC ACLF was then externally validated in a multiple-center cohort, the Electronic Intensive Care Collaborative Research Database and a single-center cohort from the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University in China. RESULTS: The MIMIC ACLF score was determined using nine variables: ln (age) × 2.2 + ln (white blood cell count) × 0.22 - ln (mean arterial pressure) × 2.7 + respiratory failure × 0.6 + renal failure × 0.51 + cerebral failure × 0.31 + ln (total bilirubin) × 0.44 + ln (internationalized normal ratio) × 0.59 + ln (serum potassium) × 0.59. In MIMIC cohort, the AUROC (0.81/0.79) for MIMIC ACLF for 28/90-day ACLF mortality were significantly greater than those of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF (0.76/0.74), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD; 0.73/0.71) and MELD-Na (0.72/0.70) (all P < 0.001). The consistency between actual and predicted 28/90-day survival rates of patients according to MIMIC ACLF score was excellent and superior to that of existing scores. The net benefit of MIMIC ACLF was greater than that achieved using existing scores within the 50% threshold probability. The superior predictive accuracy and clinical utility of MIMIC ACLF were validated in the external cohorts. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a new prognostic model with satisfactory accuracy for cirrhotic patients with ACLF hospitalized in the ICU. The model-based risk stratification and online calculator might facilitate the rational management of patients with ACLF.

Combined computational analysis and cytology show limited depth osteogenic effect on bone defects in negative pressure wound therapy.

Background: The treatment of bone defects remains a clinical challenge. The effect of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) on osteogenesis in bone defects has been recognized; however, bone marrow fluid dynamics under negative pressure (NP) remain unknown. In this study, we aimed to examine the marrow fluid mechanics within trabeculae by computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and to verify osteogenic gene expression, osteogenic differentiation to investigate the osteogenic depth under NP. Methods: The human femoral head is scanned using micro-CT to segment the volume of interest (VOI) trabeculae. The VOI trabeculae CFD model simulating the bone marrow cavity is developed by combining the Hypermesh and ANSYS software. The effect of trabecular anisotropy is investigated, and bone regeneration effects are simulated under NP scales of -80, -120, -160, and -200 mmHg. The working distance (WD) is proposed to describe the suction depth of the NP. Finally, gene sequence analysis, cytological experiments including bone mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs) proliferation and osteogenic differentiation are conducted after the BMSCs are cultured under the same NP scale. Results: The pressure, shear stress on trabeculae, and marrow fluid velocity decrease exponentially with an increase in WD. The hydromechanics of fluid at any WD inside the marrow cavity can be theoretically quantified. The NP scale significantly affects the fluid properties, especially those fluid close to the NP source; however, the effect of the NP scale become marginal as WD deepens. Anisotropy of trabecular structure coupled with the anisotropic hydrodynamic behavior of bone marrow; An NP of -120 mmHg demonstrates the majority of bone formation-related genes, as well as the most effective proliferation and osteogenic differentiation of BMSCs compared to the other NP scales. Conclusion: An NP of -120 mmHg may have the optimal activated ability to promote osteogenesis, but the effective WD may be limited to a certain depth. These findings help improve the understanding of fluid mechanisms behind NPWT in treating bone defects.

[Feasibility of multi models targeting home pain alleviation service used on 220 cases with advanced cancer].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the feasibility and effectiveness of multiple modes on home pain alleviation service used for advanced cancer patients to in prove clinical therapy services. METHODS: The study was involved with 220 patients with advanced cancers to provide them with multimodal analgesia services at home, from February 2010 to February 2013. Patients in this study had been taking both opioid treatments. They were randomly divided into two groups with the number as 112 and 108 and were given different doses of morphine or other drugs. During the period of observation, data was collected under the M. D. Anderson symptom Inventory (MDASI) score and classification of score on pain. RESULTS: Differences of pain scores in the two groups and the MDASI score were significant and presented as skewed distribution. Scores on pain score were between groups were significantly different (Z = -9.735, P < 0.001). The average rankings of A group and B group were 76.68 and 162.79 respectively. Under the application of 0.4 mg alprazolam, the degree of pain alleviation seemed to be better. The differences on comprehensive scores between different drug groups were statistically significant (Z = -13.334, P < 0.001). The average rankings of groups A and B were respectively 59.87 and 179.08. Under the use of 0.4 mg of alprazolam, the results could be considered to show better improvements in symptomatic patients. Application of 0.4 mg alprazolam on patients with advanced-cancer-induced-pain showed a better symptomatic improvement than using morphine. CONCLUSION: Patients with advanced cancers receiving multimodal analgesia short-term sedation therapies at home, showed both ideal feasibility and good effectiveness. When morphine was combined used with midazolam at home, a better outcome could be seen in pain-releasing on patients with cancer, than single morphine analgesia was used.