Neutralization profiles of HIV-1 viruses from the VRC01 Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials.

The VRC01 Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) efficacy trials conducted between 2016 and 2020 showed for the first time that passively administered broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) could prevent HIV-1 acquisition against bnAb-sensitive viruses. HIV-1 viruses isolated from AMP participants who acquired infection during the study in the sub-Saharan African (HVTN 703/HPTN 081) and the Americas/European (HVTN 704/HPTN 085) trials represent a panel of currently circulating strains of HIV-1 and offer a unique opportunity to investigate the sensitivity of the virus to broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) being considered for clinical development. Pseudoviruses were constructed using envelope sequences from 218 individuals. The majority of viruses identified were clade B and C; with clades A, D, F and G and recombinants AC and BF detected at lower frequencies. We tested eight bnAbs in clinical development (VRC01, VRC07-523LS, 3BNC117, CAP256.25, PGDM1400, PGT121, 10-1074 and 10E8v4) for neutralization against all AMP placebo viruses (n = 76). Compared to older clade C viruses (1998-2010), the HVTN703/HPTN081 clade C viruses showed increased resistance to VRC07-523LS and CAP256.25. At a concentration of 1µg/ml (IC80), predictive modeling identified the triple combination of V3/V2-glycan/CD4bs-targeting bnAbs (10-1074/PGDM1400/VRC07-523LS) as the best against clade C viruses and a combination of MPER/V3/CD4bs-targeting bnAbs (10E8v4/10-1074/VRC07-523LS) as the best against clade B viruses, due to low coverage of V2-glycan directed bnAbs against clade B viruses. Overall, the AMP placebo viruses represent a valuable resource for defining the sensitivity of contemporaneous circulating viral strains to bnAbs and highlight the need to update reference panels regularly. Our data also suggests that combining bnAbs in passive immunization trials would improve coverage of global viruses.

Durability of Protection Against COVID-19 Through the Delta Surge for the NVX-CoV2373 Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Protein-based vaccines for COVID-19 provide a traditional vaccine platform with long-lasting protection for non-SARS-CoV-2 pathogens and may complement messenger RNA vaccines as a booster dose. While NVX-CoV2373 showed substantial early efficacy, the durability of protection has not been delineated. METHODS: The PREVENT-19 vaccine trial employed a blinded crossover design; the original placebo arm received NVX-CoV2373 after efficacy was established. Using novel statistical methods that integrate surveillance data of circulating strains with post-crossover cases, we estimated placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy and durability of NVX-CoV2373 against both pre-Delta and Delta strains of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Vaccine efficacy against pre-Delta strains of COVID-19 was 89% (95% CI: 75%, 95%) and 87% (72%, 94%) at 0 and 90 days after 2 doses of NVX-CoV2373, respectively, with no evidence of waning (p=0.93). Vaccine efficacy against the Delta strain was 88% (71%, 95%), 82% (56%, 92%), and 77% (44%, 90%) at 40, 120, and 180 days, respectively, with evidence of waning (p<0.01). In sensitivity analyses, the estimated Delta vaccine efficacy at 120 days ranged from 66% (15%, 86%) to 89% (74%, 95%) per various assumptions of the surveillance data. CONCLUSION: NVX-CoV2373 has high initial efficacy against pre-Delta and Delta strains of COVID-19 with little evidence of waning for pre-Delta strains through 90 days and moderate waning against Delta strains over 180 days.

COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in participants with weakened immune systems from four randomized-controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Although the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are highly efficacious at preventing severe disease in the general population, current data are lacking regarding vaccine efficacy (VE) for individuals with mild immunocompromising conditions. METHODS: A post-hoc, cross-protocol analysis of participant-level data from the blinded phase of four randomized, placebo-controlled, COVID-19 vaccine phase 3 trials (Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax) was performed. We defined a "tempered immune system" (TIS) variable via a consensus panel based on medical history and medications to determine VE against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 cases in TIS participants versus non-TIS (NTIS) individuals starting at 14 days after completion of the primary series through the blinded phase for each of the four trials. An analysis of participants living with well-controlled HIV was conducted using the same methods. RESULTS: 3,852/30,351 (12.7%) Moderna participants, 3,088/29,868 (10.3%) Novavax participants, 3,549/32,380 (11.0%) AstraZeneca participants, and 5,047/43,788 (11.5%) Janssen participants were identified as having a TIS. Most TIS conditions (73.9%) were due to metabolism and nutritional disorders. Vaccination (versus placebo) significantly reduced the likelihood of symptomatic and severe COVID-19 for all participants for each trial. VE was not significantly different for TIS participants vs NTIS for either symptomatic or severe COVID-19 for each trial, nor was VE significantly different in the symptomatic endpoint for participants with HIV. CONCLUSIONS: For individuals with mildly immunocompromising conditions, there is no evidence of differences in VE against symptomatic or severe COVID-19 compared to those with non-tempered immune systems in the four COVID-19 vaccine randomized controlled efficacy trials.

Safety and pharmacokinetics of VRC07-523LS administered via different routes and doses (HVTN 127/HPTN 087): A Phase I randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are a promising approach for HIV-1 prevention. In the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials, a CD4-binding site targeting bnAb, VRC01, administered intravenously (IV), demonstrated 75% prevention efficacy against highly neutralization-sensitive viruses but was ineffective against less sensitive viruses. VRC07-523LS is a next-generation bnAb targeting the CD4-binding site and was engineered for increased neutralization breadth and half-life. We conducted a multicenter, randomized, partially blinded Phase I clinical trial to evaluate the safety and serum concentrations of VRC07-523LS, administered in multiple doses and routes to healthy adults without HIV. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Participants were recruited between 2 February 2018 and 9 October 2018. A total of 124 participants were randomized to receive 5 VRC07-523LS administrations via IV (T1: 2.5 mg/kg, T2: 5 mg/kg, T3: 20 mg/kg), subcutaneous (SC) (T4: 2.5 mg/kg, T5: 5 mg/kg), or intramuscular (IM) (T6: 2.5 mg/kg or P6: placebo) routes at 4-month intervals. Participants and site staff were blinded to VRC07-523LS versus placebo for the IM group, while all other doses and routes were open-label. Safety data were collected for 144 weeks following the first administration. VRC07-523LS serum concentrations were measured by ELISA through Day 112 in all participants and by binding antibody multiplex assay (BAMA) thereafter in 60 participants (10 per treatment group) through Day 784. Compartmental population pharmacokinetic (PK) analyses were conducted to evaluate the VRC07-523LS serum PK. Neutralization activity was measured in a TZM-bl assay and antidrug antibodies (ADAs) were assayed using a tiered bridging assay testing strategy. Injections and infusions were well tolerated, with mild pain or tenderness reported commonly in the SC and IM groups, and mild to moderate erythema or induration reported commonly in the SC groups. Infusion reactions reported in 3 of 20 participants in the 20 mg/kg IV group. Peak geometric mean (GM) concentrations (95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]) following the first administration were 29.0 µg/mL (25.2, 33.4), 58.5 µg/mL (49.4, 69.3), and 257.2 µg/mL (127.5, 518.9) in T1-T3 with IV dosing; 10.8 µg/mL (8.8, 13.3) and 22.8 µg/mL (20.1, 25.9) in T4-T5 with SC dosing; and 16.4 µg/mL (14.7, 18.2) in T6 with IM dosing. Trough GM (95% CIs) concentrations immediately prior to the second administration were 3.4 µg/mL (2.5, 4.6), 6.5 µg/mL (5.6, 7.5), and 27.2 µg/mL (23.9, 31.0) with IV dosing; 0.97 µg/mL (0.65, 1.4) and 3.1 µg/mL (2.2, 4.3) with SC dosing, and 2.6 µg/mL (2.05, 3.31) with IM dosing. Peak VRC07-523LS serum concentrations increased linearly with the administered dose. At a given dose, peak and trough concentrations, as well as serum neutralization titers, were highest in the IV groups, reflecting the lower bioavailability following SC and IM administration. A single participant was found to have low titer ADA at a lone time point. VRC07-523LS has an estimated mean half-life of 42 days across all doses and routes (95% CI: 40.5, 43.5), over twice as long as VRC01 (15 days). CONCLUSIONS: VRC07-523LS was safe and well tolerated across a range of doses and routes and is a promising long-acting bnAb for inclusion in HIV-1 prevention regimens. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov/ NCT03387150 (posted on 21 December 2017).

Vaccine Efficacy of ALVAC-HIV and Bivalent Subtype C gp120-MF59 in Adults.

BACKGROUND: A safe, effective vaccine is essential to eradicating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. A canarypox-protein HIV vaccine regimen (ALVAC-HIV plus AIDSVAX B/E) showed modest efficacy in reducing infection in Thailand. An analogous regimen using HIV-1 subtype C virus showed potent humoral and cellular responses in a phase 1-2a trial in South Africa. Efficacy data and additional safety data were needed for this regimen in a larger population in South Africa. METHODS: In this phase 2b-3 trial, we randomly assigned 5404 adults without HIV-1 infection to receive the vaccine (2704 participants) or placebo (2700 participants). The vaccine regimen consisted of injections of ALVAC-HIV at months 0 and 1, followed by four booster injections of ALVAC-HIV plus bivalent subtype C gp120-MF59 adjuvant at months 3, 6, 12, and 18. The primary efficacy outcome was the occurrence of HIV-1 infection from randomization to 24 months. RESULTS: In January 2020, prespecified criteria for nonefficacy were met at an interim analysis; further vaccinations were subsequently halted. The median age of the trial participants was 24 years; 70% of the participants were women. The incidence of adverse events was similar in the vaccine and placebo groups. During the 24-month follow-up, HIV-1 infection was diagnosed in 138 participants in the vaccine group and in 133 in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.81 to 1.30; P = 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The ALVAC-gp120 regimen did not prevent HIV-1 infection among participants in South Africa despite previous evidence of immunogenicity. (HVTN 702 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02968849.).

Two Randomized Trials of Neutralizing Antibodies to Prevent HIV-1 Acquisition.

BACKGROUND: Whether a broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) can be used to prevent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) acquisition is unclear. METHODS: We enrolled at-risk cisgender men and transgender persons in the Americas and Europe in the HVTN 704/HPTN 085 trial and at-risk women in sub-Saharan Africa in the HVTN 703/HPTN 081 trial. Participants were randomly assigned to receive, every 8 weeks, infusions of a bnAb (VRC01) at a dose of either 10 or 30 mg per kilogram (low-dose group and high-dose group, respectively) or placebo, for 10 infusions in total. HIV-1 testing was performed every 4 weeks. The VRC01 80% inhibitory concentration (IC80) of acquired isolates was measured with the TZM-bl assay. RESULTS: Adverse events were similar in number and severity among the treatment groups within each trial. Among the 2699 participants in HVTN 704/HPTN 085, HIV-1 infection occurred in 32 in the low-dose group, 28 in the high-dose group, and 38 in the placebo group. Among the 1924 participants in HVTN 703/HPTN 081, infection occurred in 28 in the low-dose group, 19 in the high-dose group, and 29 in the placebo group. The incidence of HIV-1 infection per 100 person-years in HVTN 704/HPTN 085 was 2.35 in the pooled VRC01 groups and 2.98 in the placebo group (estimated prevention efficacy, 26.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -11.7 to 51.8; P = 0.15), and the incidence per 100 person-years in HVTN 703/HPTN 081 was 2.49 in the pooled VRC01 groups and 3.10 in the placebo group (estimated prevention efficacy, 8.8%; 95% CI, -45.1 to 42.6; P = 0.70). In prespecified analyses pooling data across the trials, the incidence of infection with VRC01-sensitive isolates (IC80 <1 µg per milliliter) per 100 person-years was 0.20 among VRC01 recipients and 0.86 among placebo recipients (estimated prevention efficacy, 75.4%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 88.9). The prevention efficacy against sensitive isolates was similar for each VRC01 dose and trial; VRC01 did not prevent acquisition of other HIV-1 isolates. CONCLUSIONS: VRC01 did not prevent overall HIV-1 acquisition more effectively than placebo, but analyses of VRC01-sensitive HIV-1 isolates provided proof-of-concept that bnAb prophylaxis can be effective. (Supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; HVTN 704/HPTN 085 and HVTN 703/HPTN 081 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT02716675 and NCT02568215.).

Methods for the estimation of direct and indirect vaccination effects by combining data from individual- and cluster-randomized trials.

Both individually and cluster randomized study designs have been used for vaccine trials to assess the effects of vaccine on reducing the risk of disease or infection. The choice between individually and cluster randomized designs is often driven by the target estimand of interest (eg, direct versus total), statistical power, and, importantly, logistic feasibility. To combat emerging infectious disease threats, especially when the number of events from one single trial may not be adequate to obtain vaccine effect estimates with a desired level of precision, it may be necessary to combine information across multiple trials. In this article, we propose a model formulation to estimate the direct, indirect, total, and overall vaccine effects combining data from trials with two types of study designs: individual-randomization and cluster-randomization, based on a Cox proportional hazards model, where the hazard of infection depends on both vaccine status of the individual as well as the vaccine status of the other individuals in the same cluster. We illustrate the use of the proposed model and assess the potential efficiency gain from combining data from multiple trials, compared to using data from each individual trial alone, through two simulation studies, one of which is designed based on a cholera vaccine trial previously carried out in Matlab, Bangladesh.

Optimizing clinical dosing of combination broadly neutralizing antibodies for HIV prevention.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are promising agents to prevent HIV infection and achieve HIV remission without antiretroviral therapy (ART). As with ART, bNAb combinations are likely needed to cover HIV's extensive diversity. Not all bNAbs are identical in terms of their breadth, potency, and in vivo longevity (half-life). Given these differences, it is important to optimally select the composition, or dose ratio, of combination bNAb therapies for future clinical studies. We developed a model that synthesizes 1) pharmacokinetics, 2) potency against a wide HIV diversity, 3) interaction models for how drugs work together, and 4) correlates that translate in vitro potency to clinical protection. We found optimization requires drug-specific balances between potency, longevity, and interaction type. As an example, tradeoffs between longevity and potency are shown by comparing a combination therapy to a bi-specific antibody (a single protein merging both bNAbs) that takes the better potency but the worse longevity of the two components. Then, we illustrate a realistic dose ratio optimization of a triple combination of VRC07, 3BNC117, and 10-1074 bNAbs. We apply protection estimates derived from both a non-human primate (NHP) challenge study meta-analysis and the human antibody mediated prevention (AMP) trials. In both cases, we find a 2:1:1 dose emphasizing VRC07 is nearly optimal. Our approach can be immediately applied to optimize the next generation of combination antibody prevention and cure studies.

Comparing and combining data from immune assays based on left-censored multivariate normal model assuming common assay differences across settings.

In vaccine research towards the prevention of infectious diseases, immune response biomarkers serve as an important tool for comparing and ranking vaccine candidates based on their immunogenicity and predicted protective effect. However, analyses of immune response outcomes can be complicated by differences across assays when immune response data are acquired from multiple groups/laboratories. Motivated by a real-world problem to accommodate the use of two different neutralization assays in COVID-19 vaccine trials, we propose methods based on left-censored multivariate normal model assuming common assay differences across settings, to adjust for differences between assays with respect to measurement error and the lower limit of detection. Our proposed methods integrate external paired-sample data with bridging assumptions to achieve two objectives, both using pooled data acquired from different assays: (i) comparing immunogenicity between vaccine regimens, and (ii) evaluating correlates of risk. In simulation studies, for the first objective, our method leads to unbiased calibrated assay mean with good coverage of bootstrap confidence interval, as well as valid test for immunogenicity comparison, while the alternative method assuming constant calibration model between assays leads to biased estimate of assay mean with undercoverage problem and invalid test with inflated type-I error; for the second objective, in the presence of noticeable left-censoring rate, our proposed method can drastically outperform the existing method that ignores left-censoring, in terms of reduced bias and improved precision. We apply the proposed methods to SARS-CoV-2 spike-pseudotyped virus neutralization assay data generated in vaccine and convalescent samples by two different laboratories.

Risk Factors Associated with HIV Acquisition in Males Participating in HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials in South Africa.

In South Africa, HIV acquisition risk has been studied less in people assigned male at birth. We studied the associations between risk behaviors, clinical features and HIV incidence amongst males in two South African HIV preventive vaccine efficacy trials. We used Cox proportional hazards models to test for associations between demographics, sexual behaviors, clinical variables and HIV acquisition among males followed in the HVTN 503 (n = 219) and HVTN 702 (n = 1611) trials. Most males reported no male sexual partners (99.09% in HVTN 503) or identified as heterosexual (88.08% in HVTN 702). Annual HIV incidence was 1.39% in HVTN 503 (95% CI 0.76-2.32%) and 1.33% in HVTN 702 (95% CI 0.80-2.07%). Increased HIV acquisition was significantly associated with anal sex (HR 6.32, 95% CI 3.44-11.62), transactional sex (HR 3.42, 95% CI 1.80-6.50), and non-heterosexual identity (HR 16.23, 95%CI 8.13-32.41) in univariate analyses and non-heterosexual identity (HR 14.99, 95% CI 4.99-45.04; p < 0.01) in multivariate analysis. It is appropriate that prevention efforts in South Africa, although focused on the severe epidemic in young women, also encompass key male populations, including men who have sex with men, but also men who engage in anal or transactional sex.

Analysis of the HIV Vaccine Trials Network 702 Phase 2b-3 HIV-1 Vaccine Trial in South Africa Assessing RV144 Antibody and T-Cell Correlates of HIV-1 Acquisition Risk.

BACKGROUND: The ALVAC/gp120 + MF59 vaccines in the HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) 702 efficacy trial did not prevent human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) acquisition. Vaccine-matched immunological endpoints that were correlates of HIV-1 acquisition risk in RV144 were measured in HVTN 702 and evaluated as correlates of HIV-1 acquisition. METHODS: Among 1893 HVTN 702 female vaccinees, 60 HIV-1-seropositive cases and 60 matched seronegative noncases were sampled. HIV-specific CD4+ T-cell and binding antibody responses were measured 2 weeks after fourth and fifth immunizations. Cox proportional hazards models assessed prespecified responses as predictors of HIV-1 acquisition. RESULTS: The HVTN 702 Env-specific CD4+ T-cell response rate was significantly higher than in RV144 (63% vs 40%, P = .03) with significantly lower IgG binding antibody response rate and magnitude to 1086.C V1V2 (67% vs 100%, P < .001; Pmag < .001). Although no significant univariate associations were observed between any T-cell or binding antibody response and HIV-1 acquisition, significant interactions were observed (multiplicity-adjusted P ≤.03). Among vaccinees with high IgG A244 V1V2 binding antibody responses, vaccine-matched CD4+ T-cell endpoints associated with decreased HIV-1 acquisition (estimated hazard ratios = 0.40-0.49 per 1-SD increase in CD4+ T-cell endpoint). CONCLUSIONS: HVTN 702 and RV144 had distinct immunogenicity profiles. However, both identified significant correlations (univariate or interaction) for IgG V1V2 and polyfunctional CD4+ T cells with HIV-1 acquisition. Clinical Trials Registration . NCT02968849.

High Asymptomatic Carriage With the Omicron Variant in South Africa.

We report a 23% asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) Omicron carriage rate in participants being enrolled into a clinical trial in South Africa, 15-fold higher than in trials before Omicron. We also found lower CD4 + T-cell counts in persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) strongly correlated with increased odds of being SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive.

A platform trial design for preventive vaccines against Marburg virus and other emerging infectious disease threats.

BACKGROUND: The threat of a possible Marburg virus disease outbreak in Central and Western Africa is growing. While no Marburg virus vaccines are currently available for use, several candidates are in the pipeline. Building on knowledge and experiences in the designs of vaccine efficacy trials against other pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, we develop designs of randomized Phase 3 vaccine efficacy trials for Marburg virus vaccines. METHODS: A core protocol approach will be used, allowing multiple vaccine candidates to be tested against controls. The primary objective of the trial will be to evaluate the effect of each vaccine on the rate of virologically confirmed Marburg virus disease, although Marburg infection assessed via seroconversion could be the primary objective in some cases. The overall trial design will be a mixture of individually and cluster-randomized designs, with individual randomization done whenever possible. Clusters will consist of either contacts and contacts of contacts of index cases, that is, ring vaccination, or other transmission units. RESULTS: The primary efficacy endpoint will be analysed as a time-to-event outcome. A vaccine will be considered successful if its estimated efficacy is greater than 50% and has sufficient precision to rule out that true efficacy is less than 30%. This will require approximately 150 total endpoints, that is, cases of confirmed Marburg virus disease, per vaccine/comparator combination. Interim analyses will be conducted after 50 and after 100 events. Statistical analysis of the trial will be blended across the different types of designs. Under the assumption of a 6-month attack rate of 1% of the participants in the placebo arm for both the individually and cluster-randomized populations, the most likely sample size is about 20,000 participants per arm. CONCLUSION: This event-driven design takes into the account the potentially sporadic spread of Marburg virus. The proposed trial design may be applicable for other pathogens against which effective vaccines are not yet available.

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials.

Several vaccine candidates to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have entered or will soon enter large-scale, phase 3, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. To facilitate harmonized evaluation and comparison of the efficacy of these vaccines, a general set of clinical endpoints is proposed, along with considerations to guide the selection of the primary endpoints on the basis of clinical and statistical reasoning. The plausibility that vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 could be accompanied by a shift toward more SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic is highlighted, as well as the potential implications of such a shift.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated.

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.

Mathematical modeling to reveal breakthrough mechanisms in the HIV Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials.

The ongoing Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials will uncover whether passive infusion of the broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) VRC01 can protect against HIV acquisition. Previous statistical simulations indicate these trials may be partially protective. In that case, it will be crucial to identify the mechanism of breakthrough infections. To that end, we developed a mathematical modeling framework to simulate the AMP trials and infer the breakthrough mechanisms using measurable trial outcomes. This framework combines viral dynamics with antibody pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and will be generally applicable to forthcoming bNAb prevention trials. We fit our model to human viral load data (RV217). Then, we incorporated VRC01 neutralization using serum pharmacokinetics (HVTN 104) and in vitro pharmacodynamics (LANL CATNAP database). We systematically explored trial outcomes by reducing in vivo potency and varying the distribution of sensitivity to VRC01 in circulating strains. We found trial outcomes could be used in a clinical trial regression model (CTRM) to reveal whether partially protective trials were caused by large fractions of VRC01-resistant (IC50>50 µg/mL) circulating strains or rather a global reduction in VRC01 potency against all strains. The former mechanism suggests the need to enhance neutralizing antibody breadth; the latter suggests the need to enhance VRC01 delivery and/or in vivo binding. We will apply the clinical trial regression model to data from the completed trials to help optimize future approaches for passive delivery of anti-HIV neutralizing antibodies.

Therapeutic prediction of HIV-1 DNA decay: a multicenter longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Factors predicting peripheral blood total HIV-1 DNA size in chronically infected patients with successfully suppressed viremia remain unclear. Prognostic power of such factors are of clinical significance for making clinical decisions. METHODS: Two sets of study populations were included: 490 China AIDS Clinical Trial (CACT) participants (Training cohort, followed up for 144 to 288 weeks) and 117 outpatients from Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH) (Validation cohort, followed up for more than 96 weeks). All patients were chronically HIV-1-infected and achieved successful HIV-1 plasma RNA suppression within week 48. Total HIV-1 DNA in blood at baseline, 12, 24, 48, 96, 144 and 288 weeks after combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation were quantified. Generalized estimating equations and logistic regression methods were used to derive and validate a predictive model of total HIV-1 DNA after 96 weeks of cART. RESULTS: The total HIV-1 DNA rapidly decreased from baseline [median = 3.00 log10 copies/106 peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs)] to week 24 (median = 2.55 log10 copies/106 PBMCs), and leveled off afterwards. Of the 490 patients who had successful HIV-1 plasma RNA suppression by 96 w post-cART, 92 (18.8%) had a low total HIV-1 DNA count (< 100 copies/106 PBMCs) at week 96. In the predictive model, lower baseline total HIV-1 DNA [risk ratio (RR) = 0.08, per 1 log10 copies/106 PBMCs, P < 0.001] and higher baseline CD4+ T cell count (RR = 1.72, per 100 cells/µL, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with a low total HIV-1 DNA count at week 96. In an independent cohort of 117 patients, this model achieved a sensitivity of 75.00% and specificity of 69.52%. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline total HIV-1 DNA and CD4+ T cell count are two independent predictors of total HIV-1 DNA after treatment. The derived model based on these two baseline factors provides a useful prognostic tool in predicting HIV-1 DNA reservoir control during cART.

Assessing pharmacokinetic marker correlates of outcome, with application to antibody prevention efficacy trials.

The Antibody Mediated Prevention efficacy trials are the first studies to evaluate whether passive administration of a broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody can prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition. The trials randomize 4600 HIV-negative volunteers to receive 10 infusions of the monoclonal antibody VRC01 or placebo. The primary objective compares the incidence of HIV infection between the study groups. The secondary objective assesses whether and how a marker defined as the serum concentration of VRC01 over time associates with the instantaneous rate of HIV infection, using a two-phase sampling design, a pharmacokinetic model for the time-concentration curve, and an estimator of HIV infection times. While a Cox model with a time-dependent covariate constitutes an important approach to this problem, the low interindividual versus intraindividual marker variability limits its power, motivating us to develop two alternative methods that condition on outcome status: (1) an indirect method that checks whether HIV-infected cases have unexpectedly long times from the most recent infusion to the estimated infection date and (2) a direct method that checks whether the marker itself is unexpectedly low at estimated infection dates. In simulations and a pseudo Antibody Mediated Prevention application, we find that method (2) (but not (1)) has greater power than the Cox model. We also find that the quality of the infection time estimator majorly impacts method performance, and thus, incorporating details of an optimized estimator is critical. The methods apply more generally for assessing a time-dependent longitudinal marker as a correlate of risk when the marker trajectory is modeled pharmacokinetically.

A Systems Vaccinology Approach Reveals Temporal Transcriptomic Changes of Immune Responses to the Yellow Fever 17D Vaccine.

In this study, we used a systems vaccinology approach to identify temporal changes in immune response signatures to the yellow fever (YF)-17D vaccine, with the aim of comprehensively characterizing immune responses associated with protective immunity. We conducted a cohort study in which 21 healthy subjects in China were administered one dose of the YF-17D vaccine; PBMCs were collected at 0 h and then at 4 h and days 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 14, 28, 84, and 168 postvaccination, and analyzed by transcriptional profiling and immunological assays. At 4 h postvaccination, genes associated with innate cell differentiation and cytokine pathways were dramatically downregulated, whereas receptor genes were upregulated, compared with their baseline levels at 0 h. Immune response pathways were primarily upregulated on days 5 and 7, accompanied by the upregulation of the transcriptional factors JUP, STAT1, and EIF2AK2. We also observed robust activation of innate immunity within 2 d postvaccination and a durable adaptive response, as assessed by transcriptional profiling. Coexpression network analysis indicated that lysosome activity and lymphocyte proliferation were associated with dendritic cell (DC) and CD4+ T cell responses; FGL2, NFAM1, CCR1, and TNFSF13B were involved in these associations. Moreover, individuals who were baseline-seropositive for Abs against another flavivirus exhibited significantly impaired DC, NK cell, and T cell function in response to YF-17D vaccination. Overall, our findings indicate that YF-17D vaccination induces a prompt innate immune response and DC activation, a robust Ag-specific T cell response, and a persistent B cell/memory B cell response.

Mobile Phone Questionnaires for Sexual Risk Data Collection Among Young Women in Soweto, South Africa.

Recall and social desirability bias undermine self-report of paper-and-pencil questionnaires. Mobile phone questionnaires may overcome these challenges. We assessed and compared sexual risk behavior reporting via in-clinic paper-and-pencil and mobile phone questionnaires. HVTN 915 was a prospective cohort study of 50 adult women in Soweto, who completed daily mobile phone, and eight interviewer-administered in-clinic questionnaires over 12 weeks to assess sexual risk. Daily mobile phone response rates were 82% (n = 3486/4500); 45% (n = 1565/3486) reported vaginal sex (median sex acts 2 (IQR: 1-3)) within 24 h and 40% (n = 618/1565) consistent condom. Vaginal sex reporting was significantly higher via mobile phone across all visits (p < 0.0001). There was no significant difference in condom use reporting by mobile phone and in-clinic paper-based questionnaires across all visits (p = 0.5134). The results show high adherence and reporting of sex on the mobile phone questionnaire. We demonstrate feasibility in collecting mobile phone sexual risk data.