Predicting chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer at the county scale using machine learning.

Continued spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) through wild cervid herds negatively impacts populations, erodes wildlife conservation, drains resource dollars, and challenges wildlife management agencies. Risk factors for CWD have been investigated at state scales, but a regional model to predict locations of new infections can guide increasingly efficient surveillance efforts. We predicted CWD incidence by county using CWD surveillance data depicting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in 16 eastern and midwestern US states. We predicted the binary outcome of CWD-status using four machine learning models, utilized five-fold cross-validation and grid search to pinpoint the best model, then compared model predictions against the subsequent year of surveillance data. Cross validation revealed that the Light Boosting Gradient model was the most reliable predictor given the regional data. The predictive model could be helpful for surveillance planning. Predictions of false positives emphasize areas that warrant targeted CWD surveillance because of similar conditions with counties known to harbor CWD. However, disagreements in positives and negatives between the CWD Prediction Web App predictions and the on-the-ground surveillance data one year later underscore the need for state wildlife agency professionals to use a layered modeling approach to ensure robust surveillance planning. The CWD Prediction Web App is at https://cwd-predict.streamlit.app/ .

Anticoagulant Rodenticides in Red-Tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) from New York City, New York, USA, 2012-18.

Anticoagulant rodenticides (AR), principally difethialone, brodifacoum, and bromadiolone, were detected in the livers of 89% of 72 Red-tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) from New York City, New York, US examined for cause of death over a 7-yr period (January 2012-December 2018). Fatal hemorrhage likely attributable to AR exposure was diagnosed in 41% (30/74) of cases, and 46% (18/39) of the cases analyzed with no gross evidence of AR-mediated hemorrhage had liver concentrations of AR that overlapped those with an AR-poisoning diagnosis. Although urban areas like New York City can support surprisingly dense populations of Red-tailed Hawks, the threat posed by extensive use of AR can be large.