Evaluation of undetected cases during the COVID-19 epidemic in Austria.

BACKGROUND: Knowing the number of undetected cases of COVID-19 is important for a better understanding of the spread of the disease. This study analyses the temporal dynamic of detected vs. undetected cases to provide guidance for the interpretation of prevalence studies performed with PCR or antibody tests to estimate the detection rate. METHODS: We used an agent-based model to evaluate assumptions on the detection probability ranging from 0.1 to 0.9. For each general detection probability, we derived age-dependent detection probabilities and calibrated the model to reproduce the epidemic wave of COVID-19 in Austria from March 2020 to June 2020. We categorized infected individuals into presymptomatic, symptomatic unconfirmed, confirmed and never detected to observe the simulated dynamic of the detected and undetected cases. RESULTS: The calculation of the age-dependent detection probability ruled values lower than 0.4 as most likely. Furthermore, the proportion of undetected cases depends strongly on the dynamic of the epidemic wave: during the initial upswing, the undetected cases account for a major part of all infected individuals, whereas their share decreases around the peak of the confirmed cases. CONCLUSIONS: The results of prevalence studies performed to determine the detection rate of COVID-19 patients should always be interpreted with regard to the current dynamic of the epidemic wave. Applying the method proposed in our analysis, the prevalence study performed in Austria in April 2020 could indicate a detection rate of 0.13, instead of the prevalent ratio of 0.29 between detected and estimated undetected cases at that time.

Use of DALYs in economic analyses on interventions for infectious diseases: a systematic review.

A systematic literature review was performed on full economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions using disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as outcome measure. The search was limited to the period between 1994 and September 2011 and conducted in Medline, SciSearch and EMBASE databases. We included 154 studies, mostly targeting HIV/AIDS and malaria with most conducted for African countries (40%) and <10% in high-income countries. Third-payer perspective was applied in 29% of the studies, 25% used the societal perspective and 12% used both. Only 16% of the studies took indirect effects (i.e. herd immunity) of interventions into account. Intervention, direct healthcare and indirect non-healthcare costs were taken into account in respectively 100%, 81% and 36% of the studies. The majority of the studies followed the Global Burden of Disease method for DALY estimations, but most studies deviated from WHO cost-effectiveness guidelines. Better adherence to freely accessible guidelines will improve generalizability between full economic evaluations.

Cost-effectiveness of a multidimensional post-discharge disease management program for heart failure patients-economic evaluation along a one-year observation period.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the telemedically assisted post-discharge management program (DMP) HerzMobil Tirol (HMT) for heart failure (HF) patients in clinical practice in Austria. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis along a retrospective cohort study (2016-2019) of HMT with a propensity score matched cohort of 251 individuals in the HMT and 257 in the usual care (UC) group and a 1-year follow-up. We calculated the effectiveness (hospital-free survival, hospital-free life-years gained, and number of avoided rehospitalizations), costs (HMT, rehospitalizations), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We performed a nonparametric sensitivity analysis with bootstrap sampling and sensitivity analyses on costs of HF rehospitalizations and on costs per disease-related diagnosis (DRG) score for rehospitalizations. RESULTS: Base-case analysis showed that HMT resulted in an average of 42 additional hospital-free days, 40 additional days alive, and 0.12 avoided hospitalizations per patient-year compared with UC during follow-up. The average HMT costs were EUR 1916 per person. Mean rehospitalization costs were EUR 5551 in HMT and EUR 6943 in UC. The ICER of HMT compared to UC was EUR 4773 per life-year gained outside the hospital. In a sensitivity analysis, HMT was cost-saving when "non-HF related costs" related to the DMP were replaced with average costs. CONCLUSIONS: The economic evaluation along the cohort study showed that the HerzMobil Tirol is very cost-effective compared to UC and cost-saving in a sensitivity analysis correcting for "non-HF related costs." These findings promote a widespread adoption of telemedicine-assisted DMP for HF.

Rubidium-strontium and potassium-argon age of lunar sample 15555.

The lunar mare basalt 15555 from the edge of Hadley Rille has been dated at 3.3x10(9) years by both rubidium-strontium and potassium-argon techniques. Age and trace element abundances closely resemble those of the Apollo 12 mare basalts. Data from lunar basalts obtained thus far indicate that they cannot be derived by simple fractionation from a homogeneous source.

Differential expression of Ia antigens by rheumatoid synovial lining cells.

The differential expression of Ia antigens was studied in freshly isolated rheumatoid nonlymphoid synovial lining cells (SLC) and rheumatoid synovial fibroblast cell lines cultured in the presence of Interferon-gamma, using a large panel of anti-Ia reagents with monomorphic or polymorphic specificities. All the HLA-DR or -DQ specificities detectable on the corresponding peripheral blood B cells were also expressed in freshly isolated SLC. However, in all instances, the number of DR-positive SLC exceeded the percentage of cells expressing DQ antigens. In addition, the epitope expression of Ia antigens varied within the DR or DQ populations of Ia molecules as revealed by polymorphic reagents. Double-label experiments or using the ingestion of Latex particles as a marker demonstrated that the synovial macrophages (type I SLC) primarily bear the DR+DQ+ phenotype, while there is an additional population of nonphagocytic SLC (previously termed type II SLC) that has a DR+ and monocyte marker negative phenotype but did not have detectable levels of DQ antigens as analyzed by both fluorescence microscopy and cell sorter analysis. This latter population frequently had a morphology showing dendritic processes and rapidly lost the expression of Ia antigens upon culture. Cells with a similar, primarily DR+ phenotype were readily obtained in synovial fibroblast cultures after treatment with Interferon-gamma. These data suggest that there are two populations of Ia+ synovial lining cells: the synovial macrophages (type I cells) with the DR+DQ+ phenotype, and cells probably related to fibroblasts with a DR+ phenotype without detectable DQ antigens (type II cells). The fact that the latter phenotype could be induced by Interferon-gamma treatment of cultured synovial fibroblasts suggests that this mediator may have a similar role in vivo in the activation of certain synovial cell populations.

Peroxidative membrane damage in human erythrocytes induced by a concerted action of iodoacetate, vanadate and ferricyanide.

Human erythrocytes incubated without substrate in the presence of iodoacetate (0.2 mM), vanadate (0.5 mM) and ferricyanide (5 mM) form aqueous membrane leaks of equivalent radii of 0.5-0.8 nm leading to complete colloid-osmotic lysis within 180 min. All three components are indispensable for the effect. Inosine but not glucose markedly enhances the rate of hemolysis. These effects are due to oxidative damage, as indicated by concomitant destruction of polyunsaturated fatty acids and suppression of both effects by radical scavengers. Hemoglobin is not oxidized under these conditions. GSH and membrane SH levels remain almost normal, and no crosslinking or irreversible aggregation of membrane proteins is observed. In the absence of O2 no membrane damage can be observed. It is proposed that radical formation originates from reduction of O2 by NADPH, analogous to processes described in microsomal membranes. NADH seems not to be involved, since leak formation occurs in spite of the blockage of NADH formation by iodoacetate. Vanadate and ferricyanide are probably required to amplify the peroxidative reaction sufficiently to overcome the cellular antioxidative capacity.

Cost effectiveness of personalized treatment in women with early breast cancer: the application of OncotypeDX and Adjuvant! Online to guide adjuvant chemotherapy in Austria.

A Breast Cancer Outcomes model was developed at the ONCOTYROL research center to evaluate personalized test-treatment strategies in Austria. The goal was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a new 21-gene assay (ODX) when used in conjunction with the Adjuvant! Online (AO) decision aid to support personalized decisions about use of adjuvant chemotherapy in early-stage breast cancer patients in Austria. We applied a validated discrete-event-simulation model to a hypothetical cohort of 50 years old women over a lifetime horizon. The test-treatment strategies of interest were defined using three-letter acronyms. The first (second, third) letter indicates whether patients with a low (intermediate, high) risk according to AO were tested using ODX (Y yes, N no). The main outcomes were life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and cost effectiveness. Robustness of the results was tested in sensitivity analyses. Results were compared to a Canadian analysis conducted by the Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment Collaborative (THETA). Five of eight strategies were dominated (i.e., more costly and less effective: NNY, NYN, YNN, YNY, YYN). The base-case analysis shows that YYY (ODX provided to all patients) is the most effective strategy and is cost effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 15,700 EUR per QALY gained. These results are sensitive to changes in the probabilities of distant recurrence, age and costs of chemotherapy. The results of the base-case analysis were comparable to the THETA results. Based on our analyses, using ODX in addition to AO is effective and cost effective in all women in Austria. The development of future genetic tests may require alternative or additional test-treatment strategies to be evaluated.

Decision-analytic modeling studies: An overview for clinicians using multiple myeloma as an example.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to provide a clinician-friendly overview of decision-analytic models evaluating different treatment strategies for multiple myeloma (MM). METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search to identify studies evaluating MM treatment strategies using mathematical decision-analytic models. We included studies that were published as full-text articles in English, and assessed relevant clinical endpoints, and summarized methodological characteristics (e.g., modeling approaches, simulation techniques, health outcomes, perspectives). RESULTS: Eleven decision-analytic modeling studies met our inclusion criteria. Five different modeling approaches were adopted: decision-tree modeling, Markov state-transition modeling, discrete event simulation, partitioned-survival analysis and area-under-the-curve modeling. Health outcomes included survival, number-needed-to-treat, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years. Evaluated treatment strategies included novel agent-based combination therapies, stem cell transplantation and supportive measures. CONCLUSION: Overall, our review provides a comprehensive summary of modeling studies assessing treatment of MM and highlights decision-analytic modeling as an important tool for health policy decision making.

Collagen sandwich culture affects intracellular polyamine levels of human hepatocytes.

Extracellular matrices, like collagen layers, play an important role in preventing dedifferentiation of hepatocytes in long-term culture experiments. It has also been shown that polyamines are crucial for cell growth and liver differentiation - regeneration. Primary cultured hepatocytes with their low mitotic activity might be a valuable tool in studying the role of polyamines in differentiation. Here, our goal was to investigate whether an extracellular cell culture matrix can influence intracellular polyamine levels in human hepatocytes during long-term culture. Primary human hepatocytes were isolated from surgical tissue resections and were maintained either in single collagen (SG) or double collagen gel (DG) layer (sandwich) culture systems. Cell viability and function were examined and intracellular polyamine levels were measured using a highly sensitive high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method. Hepatocytes showed high viability in both culture systems used, but albumin secretion was diminished in SG cultured hepatocytes after 14 days. In general, total intracellular polyamine levels of hepatocytes decreased markedly in both SG and DG within the first days of culture, but remained constant until day 21 with a SG/DG ratio of about 1.4. Individual polyamines levels were dependent on the culture time and system, where spermine decreased and putrescine increased in both SG and DG over time (day 14), but spermidine increased only in DG. Our results suggest that polyamine levels, in particular putrescine, might be important regulators of hepatocyte specific function in vitro and therefore serve as a marker of differentiation for cultivated human hepatocytes.

Bone marrow-derived T-cell clones obtained from untreated acute myelocytic leukemia exhibit blast directed autologous cytotoxicity.

The eradication of minimal residual blast populations by activation of autologous cytotoxic cells with interleukin 2 (IL-2) is a new promising tool in the treatment of acute myelocytic leukemia (AML). However, the immunological effector cells are not yet clearly defined. The present study was designed to investigate the presence of cytotoxic precursor cells in active AML and to identify phenotypical and functional characteristics of autologous anti-leukemic cytotoxic effector cells. For this purpose, mononuclear cells (MNC) containing at least 70% leukemic blasts were isolated from bone marrow of untreated AML and cultured in the presence of 3000 IU/ml recombinant IL-2 (rIL-2) for 6-8 weeks. Under these conditions, T-cells were selected in the bone marrow cultures and overgrew the leukemic blasts. The resulting T-cell populations were cloned by limiting dilution and the clones obtained were characterized for their phenotypical and functional patterns. Totally, cloning resulted in 68 clones and a few cell lines. The clonality was verified by RT PCR analysis of TCR V beta gene expression. All clones obtained stained positive for CD2, CD3, DR and CD56. The vast majority (68%) of T-cell clones/lines was CD4+, a few clones expressed CD8 (19%) or CD4 and CD8, and four clones were of TCR gamma delta origin. Seven of 15 clones tested, including three CD4+, two CD8+ and two TCR gamma delta(+)-clones were found to be cytotoxic against autologous leukemic blast cells. All except one clone expressed oncolytic activities against allogeneic blasts too. One of the TCR gamma delta(+)-clones demonstrated NK activity by lysis of K562 targets. The majority of the T-cell-clones released IL-2, IL-8, TNF-alpha, GM-CSF but only a few IFN gamma and expressed high levels of mRNA for IL-2, TGF-beta and IL-10. None of the clones was found to produce IL-3, IL-4, IL-7 and TNF-beta. The data provide evidence of the existence of T-cell precursors in untreated AML bone marrow differentiating to cytotoxic cells with activity against autologous and allogeneic AML blast cells.

A rapid assay for evaluation of antiviral activity against coxsackie virus B3, influenza virus A, and herpes simplex virus type 1.

In order to identify new potential antiviral drugs, small amounts of extracts or compounds have to be examined for cytotoxicity and antiviral activity in primary screening using a rapid, easy, inexpensive, and highly standardised test system. In this study, high-throughput cytopathic effect (CPE) inhibitory assays were established for coxsackie virus B3 on HeLa Ohio cells, influenza virus A on Madin-Darby canine kidney cells, and herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) on green monkey kidney cells that meet these requirements. The cytotoxic and the antiviral effects were quantified using a crystal violet uptake assay allowing automated handling of large numbers of candidate agents. To ensure comparable results with plaque reduction assays, the 50 and 90% plaque inhibitory concentrations of guanidine, amantadine, and phosphonoformic acid were used to standardise the anti-coxsackie virus B3, anti-influenza virus A, and anti-HSV-1 tests, respectively. The strong correlation between the antiviral activity determined by CPE-inhibitory assays and plaque reduction assay was further proved for other antivirals. In summary, low amounts of large numbers of compounds may be tested inexpensively and standardised within 24 h (coxsackie virus B3 and influenza virus A) or 48 h (herpes simplex virus type 1) post-infection using CPE inhibitory assays.

Duration versus degree of hypotension as critical conditions of brain infarction in the albino rat.

In 41 anesthetized, spontaneously breathing male adult albino rats, cerebral hypotension of precisely defined duration and magnitude was induced by means of controlled arterial hemorrhage. One common carotid artery was occluded throughout the hypotensive period, and the target pressure was monitored in the ipsilateral internal carotid artery. Regional brain infarcts developed in all 16 animals with a target pressure of 14 mm Hg maintained for 90 minutes and in all five animals with a target pressure of 12 mm Hg maintained for 70 minutes. However, the brains of all 10 rats with a target pressure of 17 mm Hg maintained for 80 minutes remained intact. In two further groups of five animals each with target pressures of 15 mm Hg for 80 minutes and 16 mm Hg for 90 minutes the incidence of infarct was about 30%. There were no marked differences between the five groups of rats in body weight, body temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, PaO2, PaCO2, arterial pH, or hematocrit. The data suggest that, in the rat, the clear-cut threshold for the induction of brain infarcts is a function of the severity and duration of arterial hypotension. Evidence is presented indicating that this function is distinctly species-dependent, due to species differences in the dilatory capacity of the arteries supplying the brain rather than species differences in brain vulnerability.

A computational study of potential molecular switches that exploit Baird's rule on excited-state aromaticity and antiaromaticity.

A series of tentative single-molecule conductance switches which could be triggered by light were examined by computational means using density functional theory (DFT) with non-equilibrium Green's functions (NEGF). The switches exploit the reversal in electron counting rules for aromaticity and antiaromaticity upon excitation from the electronic ground state (S0) to the lowest ππ* excited singlet and triplet states (S1 or T1), as described by Hückel's and Baird's rules, respectively. Four different switches and one antifuse were designed which rely on various photoreactions that either lead from the OFF to the ON states (switches 1, 2 and 4, and antifuse 5) or from the ON to the OFF state (switch 3). The highest and lowest ideal calculated switching ratios are 1175 and 5, respectively, observed for switches 1 and 4. Increased thermal stability of the 1-ON isomer is achieved by benzannulation (switch 1B-OFF/ON). The effects of constrained electrode-electrode distances on activation energies for thermal hydrogen back-transfer from 1-ON to 1-OFF and the relative energies of 1-ON and 1-OFF at constrained geometries were also studied. The switching ratio is strongly distance-dependent as revealed for 1B-ON/OFF where it equals 711 and 148 when the ON and OFF isomers are calculated in electrode gaps with distances confined to either that of the OFF isomer or to that of the ON isomer, respectively.