RESUMEN
Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with respect to data requirements, as disease spread is influenced by numerous factors, including the pathogen's underlying transmission parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and population connectivity, and environmental conditions. Here, using data from Sierra Leone, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of recent cholera and Ebola outbreaks and compare and contrast the spread of these two pathogens in the same population. We develop a simulation model of the spatial spread of an epidemic in order to examine the impact of a pathogen's incubation period on the dynamics of spread and the predictability of outbreaks. We find that differences in the incubation period alone can determine the limits of predictability for diseases with different natural history, both empirically and in our simulations. Our results show that diseases with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, where infected individuals can travel farther before becoming infectious, result in more long-distance sparking events and less predictable disease trajectories, as compared to the more predictable wave-like spread of diseases with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera.
Asunto(s)
Cólera/epidemiología , Simulación por Computador , Brotes de Enfermedades , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Enfermedades Transmisibles/epidemiología , Epidemias , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Predicción , Humanos , Sierra Leona/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of pediatric death, with >99% of mortality occurring in low- and lower middle-income countries. At least half of RSV-related deaths are estimated to occur in the community, but clinical characteristics of this group of children remain poorly characterized. METHODS: The RSV Global Online Mortality Database (RSV GOLD), a global registry of under-5 children who have died with RSV-related illness, describes clinical characteristics of children dying of RSV through global data sharing. RSV GOLD acts as a collaborative platform for global deaths, including community mortality studies described in this supplement. We aimed to compare the age distribution of infant deaths <6 months occurring in the community with in-hospital. RESULTS: We studied 829 RSV-related deaths <1 year of age from 38 developing countries, including 166 community deaths from 12 countries. There were 629 deaths that occurred <6 months, of which 156 (25%) occurred in the community. Among infants who died before 6 months of age, median age at death in the community (1.5 months; IQR: 0.8-3.3) was lower than in-hospital (2.4 months; IQR: 1.5-4.0; Pâ <â .0001). The proportion of neonatal deaths was higher in the community (29%, 46/156) than in-hospital (12%, 57/473, Pâ <â 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: We observed that children in the community die at a younger age. We expect that maternal vaccination or immunoprophylaxis against RSV will have a larger impact on RSV-related mortality in the community than in-hospital. This case series of RSV-related community deaths, made possible through global data sharing, allowed us to assess the potential impact of future RSV vaccines.
Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio , Vacunas contra Virus Sincitial Respiratorio , Virus Sincitial Respiratorio Humano , Distribución por Edad , Niño , Hospitalización , Humanos , Lactante , Muerte del Lactante , Recién Nacido , Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory tract infections are a leading cause of death in young children, but few studies have collected the specimens needed to define the role of specific causes. The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) platform aims to investigate causes of death in children aged <5 years in high-mortality rate settings, using postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling and other advanced diagnostic techniques. We examined findings for deaths identified in CHAMPS sites in 7 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to evaluate the role of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). METHODS: We included deaths that occurred between December 2016 and December 2019. Panels determined causes of deaths by reviewing all available data including pathological results from minimally invasive tissue sampling, polymerase chain reaction screening for multiple infectious pathogens in lung tissue, nasopharyngeal swab, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid samples, clinical information from medical records, and verbal autopsies. RESULTS: We evaluated 1213 deaths, including 695 in neonates (aged <28 days), 283 in infants (28 days to <12 months), and 235 in children (12-59 months). RSV was detected in postmortem specimens in 67 of 1213 deaths (5.5%); in 24 deaths (2.0% of total), RSV was determined to be a cause of death, and it contributed to 5 other deaths. Younger infants (28 days to <6 months of age) accounted for half of all deaths attributed to RSV; 6.5% of all deaths in younger infants were attributed to RSV. RSV was the underlying and only cause in 4 deaths; the remainder (nâ =â 20) had a median of 2 (range, 1-5) other conditions in the causal chain. Birth defects (nâ =â 8) and infections with other pathogens (nâ =â 17) were common comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: RSV is an important cause of child deaths, particularly in young infants. These findings add to the substantial body of literature calling for better treatment and prevention options for RSV in high-mortality rate settings.
Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio , Virus Sincitial Respiratorio Humano , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio , Niño , Salud Infantil , Mortalidad del Niño , Preescolar , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio/epidemiología , Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio/prevención & control , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The current burden of >5 million deaths yearly is the focus of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) to end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years old by 2030. To accelerate progression toward this goal, data are needed that accurately quantify the leading causes of death, so that interventions can target the common causes. By adding postmortem pathology and microbiology studies to other available data, the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network provides comprehensive evaluations of conditions leading to death, in contrast to standard methods that rely on data from medical records and verbal autopsy and report only a single underlying condition. We analyzed CHAMPS data to characterize the value of considering multiple causes of death. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined deaths identified from December 2016 through November 2020 from 7 CHAMPS sites (in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa), including 741 neonatal, 278 infant, and 241 child <5 years deaths for which results from Determination of Cause of Death (DeCoDe) panels were complete. DeCoDe panelists included all conditions in the causal chain according to the ICD-10 guidelines and assessed if prevention or effective management of the condition would have prevented the death. We analyzed the distribution of all conditions listed as causal, including underlying, antecedent, and immediate causes of death. Among 1,232 deaths with an underlying condition determined, we found a range of 0 to 6 (mean 1.5, IQR 0 to 2) additional conditions in the causal chain leading to death. While pathology provides very helpful clues, we cannot always be certain that conditions identified led to death or occurred in an agonal stage of death. For neonates, preterm birth complications (most commonly respiratory distress syndrome) were the most common underlying condition (n = 282, 38%); among those with preterm birth complications, 256 (91%) had additional conditions in causal chains, including 184 (65%) with a different preterm birth complication, 128 (45%) with neonatal sepsis, 69 (24%) with lower respiratory infection (LRI), 60 (21%) with meningitis, and 25 (9%) with perinatal asphyxia/hypoxia. Of the 278 infant deaths, 212 (79%) had ≥1 additional cause of death (CoD) beyond the underlying cause. The 2 most common underlying conditions in infants were malnutrition and congenital birth defects; LRI and sepsis were the most common additional conditions in causal chains, each accounting for approximately half of deaths with either underlying condition. Of the 241 child deaths, 178 (75%) had ≥1 additional condition. Among 46 child deaths with malnutrition as the underlying condition, all had ≥1 other condition in the causal chain, most commonly sepsis, followed by LRI, malaria, and diarrheal disease. Including all positions in the causal chain for neonatal deaths resulted in 19-fold and 11-fold increases in attributable roles for meningitis and LRI, respectively. For infant deaths, the proportion caused by meningitis and sepsis increased by 16-fold and 11-fold, respectively; for child deaths, sepsis and LRI are increased 12-fold and 10-fold, respectively. While comprehensive CoD determinations were done for a substantial number of deaths, there is potential for bias regarding which deaths in surveillance areas underwent minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), potentially reducing representativeness of findings. CONCLUSIONS: Including conditions that appear anywhere in the causal chain, rather than considering underlying condition alone, markedly changed the proportion of deaths attributed to various diagnoses, especially LRI, sepsis, and meningitis. While CHAMPS methods cannot determine when 2 conditions cause death independently or may be synergistic, our findings suggest that considering the chain of events leading to death can better guide research and prevention priorities aimed at reducing child deaths.
Asunto(s)
Causas de Muerte/tendencias , Salud Infantil/tendencias , Mortalidad del Niño/tendencias , Salud del Lactante/tendencias , Mortalidad Infantil/tendencias , África , Factores de Edad , Asia , Autopsia , Preescolar , Femenino , Carga Global de Enfermedades , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Vigilancia de la Población , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: In low-resource settings, a social autopsy tool has been proposed to measure the effect of delays in access to healthcare on deaths, complementing verbal autopsy questionnaires routinely used to determine cause of death. This study estimates the contribution of various delays in maternal healthcare to subsequent neonatal mortality using a social autopsy case-control design. METHODS: This study was conducted at the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Sierra Leone site (Makeni City and surrounding rural areas). Cases were neonatal deaths in the catchment area, and controls were sex- and area-matched living neonates. Odds ratios for maternal barriers to care and neonatal death were estimated, and stratified models examined this association by neonatal age and medical complications. RESULTS: Of 53 neonatal deaths, 26.4% of mothers experienced at least one delay during pregnancy or delivery compared to 46.9% of mothers of stillbirths and 18.6% of control mothers. The most commonly reported delay among neonatal deaths was receiving care at the facility (18.9%). Experiencing any barrier was weakly associated (OR 1.68, CI 0.77, 3.67) and a delay in receiving care at the facility was strongly associated (OR 19.15, CI 3.90, 94.19) with neonatal death. DISCUSSION: Delays in healthcare are associated with neonatal death, particularly delays experienced at the healthcare facility. Heterogeneity exists in the prevalence of specific delays, which has implications for local public health policy. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Asunto(s)
Salud Infantil , Mortalidad Infantil , Autopsia , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Causas de Muerte , Niño , Femenino , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Embarazo , Sierra Leona/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Ebola virus has been detected in the semen of men after their recovery from Ebola virus disease (EVD). We report the presence of Ebola virus RNA in semen in a cohort of survivors of EVD in Sierra Leone. METHODS: We enrolled a convenience sample of 220 adult male survivors of EVD in Sierra Leone, at various times after discharge from an Ebola treatment unit (ETU), in two phases (100 participants were in phase 1, and 120 in phase 2). Semen specimens obtained at baseline were tested by means of a quantitative reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay with the use of the target sequences of NP and VP40 (in phase 1) or NP and GP (in phase 2). This study did not evaluate directly the risk of sexual transmission of EVD. RESULTS: Of 210 participants who provided an initial semen specimen for analysis, 57 (27%) had positive results on quantitative RT-PCR. Ebola virus RNA was detected in the semen of all 7 men with a specimen obtained within 3 months after ETU discharge, in 26 of 42 (62%) with a specimen obtained at 4 to 6 months, in 15 of 60 (25%) with a specimen obtained at 7 to 9 months, in 4 of 26 (15%) with a specimen obtained at 10 to 12 months, in 4 of 38 (11%) with a specimen obtained at 13 to 15 months, in 1 of 25 (4%) with a specimen obtained at 16 to 18 months, and in no men with a specimen obtained at 19 months or later. Among the 46 participants with a positive result in phase 1, the median baseline cycle-threshold values (higher values indicate lower RNA values) for the NP and VP40 targets were lower within 3 months after ETU discharge (32.4 and 31.3, respectively; in 7 men) than at 4 to 6 months (34.3 and 33.1; in 25), at 7 to 9 months (37.4 and 36.6; in 13), and at 10 to 12 months (37.7 and 36.9; in 1). In phase 2, a total of 11 participants had positive results for NP and GP targets (samples obtained at 4.1 to 15.7 months after ETU discharge); cycle-threshold values ranged from 32.7 to 38.0 for NP and from 31.1 to 37.7 for GP. CONCLUSIONS: These data showed the long-term presence of Ebola virus RNA in semen and declining persistence with increasing time after ETU discharge. (Funded by the World Health Organization and others.).
Asunto(s)
Ebolavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Semen/virología , Adulto , Estudios de Cohortes , Estudios Transversales , Ebolavirus/genética , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/terapia , Humanos , Masculino , ARN Viral/aislamiento & purificación , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa Inversa , Sierra Leona , Sobrevivientes , Factores de Tiempo , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network aims to generate reliable data on the causes of death among children aged <5 years using all available information, including minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS). The sensitive nature of MITS inevitably evokes religious, cultural, and ethical questions influencing the feasibility and sustainability of CHAMPS. METHODS: Due to limited behavioral studies related to child MITS, we developed an innovative qualitative methodology to determine the barriers, facilitators, and other factors that affect the implementation and sustainability of CHAMPS surveillance across 7 diverse locations in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. We employed a multimethod grounded theory approach and analytical structure based on culturally specific conceptual frameworks. The methodology guided data interpretation and collective analyses confirming how to define dimensions of CHAMPS feasibility within the cultural context of each site while reducing subjectivity and bias in the process of interpretation and reporting. RESULTS: Findings showed that the approach to gain consent to conduct the MITS procedure involves religious factors associated with timing of burial, use of certain terminology, and methods of transporting the body. Community misperceptions and uncertainties resulted in rumor surveillance and consistency in information sharing. Religious pronouncements, recognition of health priorities, attention to pregnancy, and advancement of child health facilitated community acceptability. CONCLUSIONS: These findings helped formulate program priorities, guided site-specific adaptations in surveillance procedures, and verified inferences drawn from CHAMPS epidemiological and formative research data. Results informed appropriate community sensitization and engagement activities for introducing and sustaining mortality surveillance, including MITS.
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Mortalidad del Niño/tendencias , África del Sur del Sahara/epidemiología , Asia/epidemiología , Causas de Muerte/tendencias , Niño , Estudios de Factibilidad , Femenino , Humanos , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Embarazo , Investigación Cualitativa , Reproducibilidad de los ResultadosRESUMEN
We note the reemergence of human monkeypox in Sierra Leone following a 44-year absence of reported disease. The persons affected were an 11-month-old boy and, several years later, a 35-year-old man. The reappearance of monkeypox in this country suggests a need for renewed vigilance and awareness of the disease and its manifestations.
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Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/diagnóstico , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/epidemiología , Mpox/diagnóstico , Mpox/epidemiología , Adulto , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/virología , Notificación de Enfermedades , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Mpox/virología , Vigilancia en Salud Pública , Vigilancia de Guardia , Sierra Leona/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Ebola virus (EBOV) can persist in immunologically protected body sites in survivors of Ebola virus disease, creating the potential to initiate new chains of transmission. From the outbreak in West Africa during 2014-2016, we identified 13 possible events of viral persistence-derived transmission of EBOV (VPDTe) and applied predefined criteria to classify transmission events based on the strength of evidence for VPDTe and source and route of transmission. For 8 events, a recipient case was identified; possible source cases were identified for 5 of these 8. For 5 events, a recipient case or chain of transmission could not be confidently determined. Five events met our criteria for sexual transmission (male-to-female). One VPDTe event led to at least 4 generations of cases; transmission was limited after the other events. VPDTe has increased the importance of Ebola survivor services and sustained surveillance and response capacity in regions with previously widespread transmission.
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Brotes de Enfermedades , Ebolavirus , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Sobrevivientes , Adolescente , Adulto , África Occidental/epidemiología , Ebolavirus/clasificación , Ebolavirus/genética , Ebolavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Femenino , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Vigilancia en Salud Pública , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa was the largest Ebola epidemic to date. Contact tracing was a core surveillance activity. Challenges with paper-based contact tracing systems include incomplete identification of contacts, delays in communication and response, loss of contact lists, inadequate data collection and transcription errors. The aim of this study was to design and evaluate an electronic system for tracing contacts of Ebola cases in Port Loko District, Sierra Leone, and to compare this with the existing paper-based system. The electronic system featured data capture using a smartphone application, linked to an alert system to notify the District Ebola Response Centre of symptomatic contacts. METHODS: The intervention was a customised three-tier smartphone application developed using Dimagi's CommCare platform known as the Ebola Contact Tracing application (ECT app). Eligible study participants were all 26 Contact Tracing Coordinators (CTCs) and 86 Contact Tracers (CTs) working in the 11 Chiefdoms of Port Loko District during the study period (April-August 2015). Case detection was from 13th April to 17th July 2015. The CTCs and their CTs were provided with smartphones installed with the ECT app which was used to conduct contact tracing activities. Completeness and timeliness of contact tracing using the app were compared with data from April 13th-June 7th 2015, when the standard paper-based system was used. RESULTS: For 25 laboratory-confirmed cases for whom paper-based contact tracing was conducted, data for only 39% of 408 contacts were returned to the District, and data were often incomplete. For 16 cases for whom app-based contact tracing was conducted, 63% of 556 contacts were recorded as having been visited on the app, and the median recorded duration from case confirmation to first contact visit was 70 h. CONCLUSION: There were considerable challenges to conducting high-quality contact tracing in this setting using either the paper-based or the app-based system. However, the study demonstrated that it was possible to implement mobile health (mHealth) in this emergency setting. The app had the benefits of improved data completeness, storage and accuracy, but the challenges of using an app in this setting and epidemic context were substantial.
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Trazado de Contacto/métodos , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/diagnóstico , Adolescente , Adulto , África Occidental , Niño , Preescolar , Brotes de Enfermedades , Femenino , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Aplicaciones Móviles , Sierra Leona/epidemiología , Telemedicina , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The Ministry of Health and Sanitation (MOHS) in Sierra Leone partially rolled out the implementation of Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) in 2003. After the Ebola virus disease outbreak in 2014-2015, there was need to strengthen IDSR to ensure prompt detection and response to epidemic-prone diseases. We describe the processes, successes and challenges of revitalizing public health surveillance in a country recovering from a protracted Ebola virus disease outbreak. METHODS: The revitalization process began with adaptation of the revised IDSR guidelines and development of customized guidelines to suit the health care systems in Sierra Leone. Public health experts defined data flow, system operations, case definitions, frequency and channels of reporting and dissemination. Next, phased training of IDSR focal persons in each health facility and the distribution of data collection and reporting tools was done. Monitoring activities included periodic supportive supervision and data quality assessments. Rapid response teams were formed to investigate and respond to disease outbreak alerts in all districts. RESULTS: Submission of reports through the IDSR system began in mid-2015 and by the 35th epidemiologic week, all district health teams were submitting reports. The key performance indicators measuring the functionality of the IDSR system in 2016 and 2017 were achieved (WHO Africa Region target ≥80%); the annual average proportion of timely weekly health facility reports submitted to the next level was 93% in 2016 and 97% in 2017; the proportion of suspected outbreaks and public health events detected through the IDSR system was 96% (n = 87) in 2016 and 100% (n = 85) in 2017. CONCLUSION: With proper planning, phased implementation and adequate investment of resources, it is possible to establish a functional IDSR system in a country recovering from a public health crisis. A functional IDSR system requires well trained workforce, provision of the necessary tools and guidelines, information, communication and technology infrastructure to support data transmission, provision of timely feedback as well as logistical support.
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Atención a la Salud , Planificación en Desastres , Brotes de Enfermedades , Instituciones de Salud , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/prevención & control , Vigilancia en Salud Pública , Salud Pública , África/epidemiología , Recolección de Datos , Recursos en Salud , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/diagnóstico , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Humanos , Informe de Investigación , Sierra Leona/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Background: Knowing risk factors for household transmission of Ebola virus is important to guide preventive measures during Ebola outbreaks. Methods: We enrolled all confirmed persons with Ebola who were the first case in a household, December 2014-April 2015, in Freetown, Sierra Leone, and their household contacts. Cases and contacts were interviewed, contacts followed prospectively through the 21-day incubation period, and secondary cases confirmed by laboratory testing. Results: We enrolled 150 index Ebola cases and 838 contacts; 83 (9.9%) contacts developed Ebola during 21-day follow-up. In multivariable analysis, risk factors for transmission included index case death in the household, Ebola symptoms but no reported fever, age <20 years, more days with wet symptoms; and providing care to the index case (P < .01 for each). Protective factors included avoiding the index case after illness onset and a piped household drinking water source (P < .01 for each). Conclusions: To reduce Ebola transmission, communities should rapidly identify and follow-up all household contacts; isolate those with Ebola symptoms, including those without reported fever; and consider closer monitoring of contacts who provided care to cases. Households could consider efforts to minimize risk by designating one care provider for ill persons with all others avoiding the suspected case.
Asunto(s)
Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa , Composición Familiar , Salud de la Familia , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Entrevistas como Asunto , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Prospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Sierra Leona/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Background: The international impact, rapid widespread transmission, and reporting delays during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted the need for a global, centralized database to inform outbreak response. The World Health Organization and Emerging and Dangerous Pathogens Laboratory Network addressed this need by supporting the development of a global laboratory database. Methods: Specimens were collected in the affected countries from patients and dead bodies meeting the case definitions for Ebola virus disease. Test results were entered in nationally standardized spreadsheets and consolidated onto a central server. Results: From March 2014 through August 2016, 256343 specimens tested for Ebola virus disease were captured in the database. Thirty-one specimen types were collected, and a variety of diagnostic tests were performed. Regular analysis of data described the functionality of laboratory and response systems, positivity rates, and the geographic distribution of specimens. Conclusion: With data standardization and end user buy-in, the collection and analysis of large amounts of data with multiple stakeholders and collaborators across various user-access levels was made possible and contributed to outbreak response needs. The usefulness and value of a multifunctional global laboratory database is far reaching, with uses including virtual biobanking, disease forecasting, and adaption to other disease outbreaks.
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Bancos de Muestras Biológicas/normas , Bases de Datos Factuales/normas , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Ebolavirus/fisiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/virología , África Occidental/epidemiología , Salud Global , Humanos , Laboratorios , Organización Mundial de la SaludRESUMEN
Events such as the 2014-2015 West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus disease highlight the importance of the capacity to detect and respond to public health threats. We describe capacity-building efforts during and after the Ebola epidemic in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea and public health progress that was made as a result of the Ebola response in 4 key areas: emergency response, laboratory capacity, surveillance, and workforce development. We further highlight ways in which capacity-building efforts such as those used in West Africa can be accelerated after a public health crisis to improve preparedness for future events.
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Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Vigilancia en Salud Pública , Programas Médicos Regionales , África Occidental/epidemiología , Creación de Capacidad , Brotes de Enfermedades , Urgencias Médicas , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/historia , Historia del Siglo XXI , Humanos , Evaluación de Resultado en la Atención de Salud , Salud Pública , Mejoramiento de la CalidadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern." METHODS: By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa--Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14. RESULTS: The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.
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Epidemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , África Occidental/epidemiología , Niño , Ebolavirus , Femenino , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/diagnóstico , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Humanos , Incidencia , Periodo de Incubación de Enfermedades Infecciosas , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Mortality surveillance and vital registration are limited in Sierra Leone, a country with one of the highest mortality rates among children aged <5 years worldwide, approximately 120 deaths per 1,000 live births (1,2). To inform efforts to strengthen surveillance, stillbirths and deaths in children aged <5 years from multiple surveillance streams in Bombali Sebora chiefdom were retrospectively reviewed. In total, during January 2015-November 2016, 930 deaths in children aged <5 years were identified, representing 73.3% of the 1,269 deaths that were expected based on modeled estimates. The "117" telephone alert system established during the Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic captured 683 (73.4%) of all reported deaths in children aged <5 years, and was the predominant reporting source for stillbirths (n = 172). In the absence of complete vital events registration, 117 call alerts markedly improved the completeness of reporting of stillbirths and deaths in children aged <5 years.
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Mortalidad del Niño , Epidemias , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Mortalidad Infantil , Vigilancia de la Población , Preescolar , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Notificación Obligatoria , Sierra Leona/epidemiología , Mortinato/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
In 2015, community event-based surveillance (CEBS) was implemented in Sierra Leone to assist with the detection of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases. We assessed the sensitivity of CEBS for finding EVD cases during a 7-month period, and in a 6-week subanalysis, we assessed the timeliness of reporting cases with no known epidemiologic links at time of detection. Of the 12,126 CEBS reports, 287 (2%) met the suspected case definition, and 16 were confirmed positive. CEBS detected 30% (16/53) of the EVD cases identified during the study period. During the subanalysis, CEBS staff identified 4 of 6 cases with no epidemiologic links. These CEBS-detected cases were identified more rapidly than those detected by the national surveillance system; however, too few cases were detected to determine system timeliness. Although CEBS detected EVD cases, it largely generated false alerts. Future versions of community-based surveillance could improve case detection through increased staff training and community engagement.
Asunto(s)
Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Vigilancia de la Población , Adulto , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Sierra Leona/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Sierra Leone has the most cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) ever reported. Trends in laboratory-confirmed EVD, symptom presentation, and risk factors have not been fully described. METHODS: EVD cases occurring from 23 May 2014 to 31 January 2015 are presented by geography, demographics, and risk factors for all persons who had laboratory-confirmed EVD, which was identified by Ebola virus-specific reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction-based testing. RESULTS: During the study period, 8056 persons had laboratory-confirmed EVD. Their median age was 28 years; 51.7% were female. Common symptoms included fever (90.4%), fatigue (88.3%), loss of appetite (87.0%), headache (77.9%), joint pain (73.7%), vomiting (71.2%), and diarrhea (70.6%). Among persons with confirmed cases, 47.9% reported having had contact with someone with suspected EVD or any sick person, and 25.5% reported having attended a funeral, of whom 66.2% reported touching the body. The incidence of EVD was highest during 1-30 November 2014, at 7.5 per 100 000 population per week, and decreased to 2.1 per week during 1-31 January 2015. Between 23 May and 30 August 2014, two districts had the highest incidence of 3.8 and 7.0 per 100 000 population per week which decreased >97% by 1-31 January 2015. In comparison, the districts that include the capital city reported a 10-fold increase in incidence per week during the same time periods. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of patients with EVD in Sierra Leone reported physical contact with a person ill with EVD or a dead body, highlighting prevention opportunities.
Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Niño , Diarrea/epidemiología , Epidemias , Femenino , Fiebre , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/diagnóstico , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/prevención & control , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa Inversa , Factores de Riesgo , Sierra Leona/epidemiología , Factores de Tiempo , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
The Ebola virus disease (Ebola) outbreak in West Africa began in late 2013 in Guinea (1) and spread unchecked during early 2014. By mid-2014, it had become the first Ebola epidemic ever documented. Transmission was occurring in multiple districts of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, and for the first time, in capital cities (2). On August 8, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (3). Ministries of Health, with assistance from multinational collaborators, have reduced Ebola transmission, and the number of cases is now declining. While Liberia has not reported a case since July 12, 2015, transmission has continued in Guinea and Sierra Leone, although the numbers of cases reported are at the lowest point in a year. In August 2015, Guinea and Sierra Leone reported 10 and four confirmed cases, respectively, compared with a peak of 526 (Guinea) and 1,997 (Sierra Leone) in November 2014. This report details the current situation in Guinea and Sierra Leone, outlines strategies to interrupt transmission, and highlights the need to maintain public health response capacity and vigilance for new cases at this critical time to end the outbreak.
Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Ebolavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/prevención & control , Adulto , Femenino , Guinea/epidemiología , Humanos , Sierra Leona/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Health care workers (HCWs) are at increased risk for infection in outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (Ebola). To characterize Ebola in HCWs in Sierra Leone and guide prevention efforts, surveillance data from the national Viral Hemorrhagic Fever database were analyzed. In addition, site visits and interviews with HCWs and health facility administrators were conducted. As of October 31, 2014, a total of 199 (5.2%) of the total of 3,854 laboratory-confirmed Ebola cases reported from Sierra Leone were in HCWs, representing a much higher estimated cumulative incidence of confirmed Ebola in HCWs than in non-HCWs, based on national data on the number of HCW. The peak number of confirmed Ebola cases in HCWs was reported in August (65 cases), and the highest number and percentage of confirmed Ebola cases in HCWs was in Kenema District (65 cases, 12.9% of cases in Kenema), mostly from Kenema General Hospital. Confirmed Ebola cases in HCWs continued to be reported through October and were from 12 of 14 districts in Sierra Leone. A broad range of challenges were reported in implementing infection prevention and control measures. In response, the Ministry of Health and Sanitation and partners are developing standard operating procedures for multiple aspects of infection prevention, including patient isolation and safe burials; recruiting and training staff in infection prevention and control; procuring needed commodities and equipment, including personal protective equipment and vehicles for safe transport of Ebola patients and corpses; renovating and constructing Ebola care facilities designed to reduce risk for nosocomial transmission; monitoring and evaluating infection prevention and control practices; and investigating new cases of Ebola in HCWs as sentinel public health events to identify and address ongoing prevention failures.