Stroke genetics informs drug discovery and risk prediction across ancestries.

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of stroke - the second leading cause of death worldwide - were conducted predominantly in populations of European ancestry1,2. Here, in cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of 110,182 patients who have had a stroke (five ancestries, 33% non-European) and 1,503,898 control individuals, we identify association signals for stroke and its subtypes at 89 (61 new) independent loci: 60 in primary inverse-variance-weighted analyses and 29 in secondary meta-regression and multitrait analyses. On the basis of internal cross-ancestry validation and an independent follow-up in 89,084 additional cases of stroke (30% non-European) and 1,013,843 control individuals, 87% of the primary stroke risk loci and 60% of the secondary stroke risk loci were replicated (P < 0.05). Effect sizes were highly correlated across ancestries. Cross-ancestry fine-mapping, in silico mutagenesis analysis3, and transcriptome-wide and proteome-wide association analyses revealed putative causal genes (such as SH3PXD2A and FURIN) and variants (such as at GRK5 and NOS3). Using a three-pronged approach4, we provide genetic evidence for putative drug effects, highlighting F11, KLKB1, PROC, GP1BA, LAMC2 and VCAM1 as possible targets, with drugs already under investigation for stroke for F11 and PROC. A polygenic score integrating cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific stroke GWASs with vascular-risk factor GWASs (integrative polygenic scores) strongly predicted ischaemic stroke in populations of European, East Asian and African ancestry5. Stroke genetic risk scores were predictive of ischaemic stroke independent of clinical risk factors in 52,600 clinical-trial participants with cardiometabolic disease. Our results provide insights to inform biology, reveal potential drug targets and derive genetic risk prediction tools across ancestries.

Multi-ancestry polygenic risk scores for venous thromboembolism.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality, with large disparities in incidence rates between Black and White Americans. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) limited to variants discovered in genome-wide association studies in European-ancestry samples can identify European-ancestry individuals at high risk of VTE. However, there is limited evidence on whether high-dimensional PRS constructed using more sophisticated methods and more diverse training data can enhance the predictive ability and their utility across diverse populations. We developed PRSs for VTE using summary statistics from the International Network against Venous Thrombosis (INVENT) consortium genome-wide association studies meta-analyses of European- (71 771 cases and 1 059 740 controls) and African-ancestry samples (7482 cases and 129 975 controls). We used LDpred2 and PRS-CSx to construct ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSs and evaluated their performance in an independent European- (6781 cases and 103 016 controls) and African-ancestry sample (1385 cases and 12 569 controls). Multi-ancestry PRSs with weights tuned in European-ancestry samples slightly outperformed ancestry-specific PRSs in European-ancestry test samples (e.g. the area under the receiver operating curve [AUC] was 0.609 for PRS-CSx_combinedEUR and 0.608 for PRS-CSxEUR [P = 0.00029]). Multi-ancestry PRSs with weights tuned in African-ancestry samples also outperformed ancestry-specific PRSs in African-ancestry test samples (PRS-CSxAFR: AUC = 0.58, PRS-CSx_combined AFR: AUC = 0.59), although this difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.34). The highest fifth percentile of the best-performing PRS was associated with 1.9-fold and 1.68-fold increased risk for VTE among European- and African-ancestry subjects, respectively, relative to those in the middle stratum. These findings suggest that the multi-ancestry PRS might be used to improve performance across diverse populations to identify individuals at highest risk for VTE.

Polygenic risk scores for prediction of breast cancer risk in Asian populations.

PURPOSE: Non-European populations are under-represented in genetics studies, hindering clinical implementation of breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRSs). We aimed to develop PRSs using the largest available studies of Asian ancestry and to assess the transferability of PRS across ethnic subgroups. METHODS: The development data set comprised 138,309 women from 17 case-control studies. PRSs were generated using a clumping and thresholding method, lasso penalized regression, an Empirical Bayes approach, a Bayesian polygenic prediction approach, or linear combinations of multiple PRSs. These PRSs were evaluated in 89,898 women from 3 prospective studies (1592 incident cases). RESULTS: The best performing PRS (genome-wide set of single-nucleotide variations [formerly single-nucleotide polymorphism]) had a hazard ratio per unit SD of 1.62 (95% CI = 1.46-1.80) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.635 (95% CI = 0.622-0.649). Combined Asian and European PRSs (333 single-nucleotide variations) had a hazard ratio per SD of 1.53 (95% CI = 1.37-1.71) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.621 (95% CI = 0.608-0.635). The distribution of the latter PRS was different across ethnic subgroups, confirming the importance of population-specific calibration for valid estimation of breast cancer risk. CONCLUSION: PRSs developed in this study, from association data from multiple ancestries, can enhance risk stratification for women of Asian ancestry.

Bilirubin and Stroke Risk Using a Mendelian Randomization Design.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Circulating bilirubin, a natural antioxidant, is associated with decreased risk of stroke. However, the nature of the relationship between the two remains unknown. We used a Mendelian randomization analysis to assess the causal effect of serum bilirubin on stroke risk in Koreans. METHODS: The 14 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (<10-7) including rs6742078 of uridine diphosphoglucuronyl-transferase were selected from genome-wide association study of bilirubin level in the KCPS-II (Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II) Biobank subcohort consisting of 4793 healthy Korean and 806 stroke cases. Weighted genetic risk score was calculated using 14 SNPs selected from the top SNPs. RESULTS: Both rs6742078 (F statistics=138) and weighted genetic risk score with 14 SNPs (F statistics=187) were strongly associated with bilirubin levels. Simultaneously, serum bilirubin level was associated with decreased risk of stroke in an ordinary least-squares analysis. However, in 2-stage least-squares Mendelian randomization analysis, no causal relationship between serum bilirubin and stroke risk was found. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence that bilirubin level is causally associated with risk of stroke in Koreans. Therefore, bilirubin level is not a risk determinant of stroke.

Effect of obesity on the association between MYL2 (rs3782889) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol among Korean men.

High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels are associated with a decreased risk of coronary artery disease. Several genome-wide association studies that have examined HDL cholesterol levels have implicated myosin light chain 2 regulatory cardiac slow (MYL2) as a possible causal factor. Herein, the association between the rs3782889 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the MYL2 gene and HDL cholesterol levels was tested in the Korean population. A total of 4294 individuals were included in a replication study with MYL2 SNP rs3782889. SNP rs3782889 in the MYL2 gene was associated with mean HDL cholesterol level (effect per allele, -1.055 mg dl(-1), P=0.0005). Subjects with the CT/CC genotype had a 1.43-fold (range 1.19-1.73-fold) higher risk of an abnormal HDL cholesterol level (<40 mg dl(-1)) than subjects with the TT genotype. When analyzed by sex, the MYL2 association was stronger in men than that in women. When analyzed by body mass index (BMI), the MYL2 association was much stronger in male subjects with BMI ⩾26.44 kg m(-2) (odds ratio (OR)=2.68; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.87-3.84; P<0.0001) than that in male subjects with BMI <26.44 kg m(-2). When compared with subjects having the TT genotype and BMI <26.44 kg m(-2), ORs (95% CI) were 3.30 (2.41-4.50) in subjects having the CT/CC genotype and BMI ⩾26.44 kg m(-2) (P for interaction <0.0001). Our results clearly demonstrate that genetic variants in MYL2 influence HDL cholesterol levels in Korean obese male subjects.

Genome-wide association studies in a large Korean cohort identify novel quantitative trait loci for 36 traits and illuminates their genetic architectures.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been predominantly conducted in populations of European ancestry, limiting opportunities for biological discovery in diverse populations. We report GWAS findings from 153,950 individuals across 36 quantitative traits in the Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II (KCPS2) Biobank. We discovered 616 novel genetic loci in KCPS2, including an association between thyroid-stimulating hormone and CD36. Meta-analysis with the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, Biobank Japan, Taiwan Biobank, and UK Biobank identified 3,524 loci that were not significant in any contributing GWAS. We describe differences in genetic architectures across these East Asian and European samples. We also highlight East Asian specific associations, including a known pleiotropic missense variant in ALDH2, which fine-mapping identified as a likely causal variant for a diverse set of traits. Our findings provide insights into the genetic architecture of complex traits in East Asian populations and highlight how broadening the population diversity of GWAS samples can aid discovery.

Multi-trait and multi-ancestry genetic analysis of comorbid lung diseases and traits improves genetic discovery and polygenic risk prediction.

While respiratory diseases such as COPD and asthma share many risk factors, most studies investigate them in insolation and in predominantly European ancestry populations. Here, we conducted the most powerful multi-trait and -ancestry genetic analysis of respiratory diseases and auxiliary traits to date. Our approach improves the power of genetic discovery across traits and ancestries, identifying 44 novel loci associated with lung function in individuals of East Asian ancestry. Using these results, we developed PRSxtra (cross TRait and Ancestry), a multi-trait and -ancestry polygenic risk score approach that leverages shared components of heritable risk via pleiotropic effects. PRSxtra significantly improved the prediction of asthma, COPD, and lung cancer compared to trait- and ancestry-matched PRS in a multi-ancestry cohort from the All of Us Research Program, especially in diverse populations. PRSxtra identified individuals in the top decile with over four-fold odds of asthma and COPD compared to the first decile. Our results present a new framework for multi-trait and -ancestry studies of respiratory diseases to improve genetic discovery and polygenic prediction.

Multi-ancestry polygenic risk scores for venous thromboembolism.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality, with large disparities in incidence rates between Black and White Americans. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) limited to variants discovered in genome-wide association studies in European-ancestry samples can identify European-ancestry individuals at high risk of VTE. However, there is limited evidence on whether high-dimensional PRS constructed using more sophisticated methods and more diverse training data can enhance the predictive ability and their utility across diverse populations. We developed PRSs for VTE using summary statistics from the International Network against Venous Thrombosis (INVENT) consortium GWAS meta-analyses of European- (71,771 cases and 1,059,740 controls) and African-ancestry samples (7,482 cases and 129,975 controls). We used LDpred2 and PRSCSx to construct ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSs and evaluated their performance in an independent European- (6,261 cases and 88,238 controls) and African-ancestry sample (1,385 cases and 12,569 controls). Multi-ancestry PRSs with weights tuned in European- and African-ancestry samples, respectively, outperformed ancestry-specific PRSs in European- (PRSCSXEUR: AUC=0.61 (0.60, 0.61), PRSCSX_combinedEUR: AUC=0.61 (0.60, 0.62)) and African-ancestry test samples (PRSCSXAFR: AUC=0.58 (0.57, 0.6), PRSCSX_combined AFR: AUC=0.59 (0.57, 0.60)). The highest fifth percentile of the best-performing PRS was associated with 1.9-fold and 1.68-fold increased risk for VTE among European- and African-ancestry subjects, respectively, relative to those in the middle stratum. These findings suggest that the multi-ancestry PRS may be used to identify individuals at highest risk for VTE and provide guidance for the most effective treatment strategy across diverse populations.

Polygenic risk scores for prediction of breast cancer in Korean women.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for breast cancer, developed using European and Asian genome-wide association studies (GWAS), have been shown to have good discrimination in Asian women. However, prospective calibration of absolute risk prediction models, based on a PRS or PRS combined with lifestyle, clinical and environmental factors, in Asian women is limited. METHODS: We consider several PRSs trained using European and/or Asian GWAS. For each PRS, we evaluate the discrimination and calibration of three absolute risk models among 41 031 women from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS)-II Biobank: (i) a model using incidence, mortality and risk factor distributions (reference inputs) among US women and European relative risks; (ii) a recalibrated model, using Korean reference but European relative risks; and (iii) a fully Korean-based model using Korean reference and relative risk estimates from KCPS. RESULTS: All Asian and European PRS improved discrimination over lifestyle, clinical and environmental (Qx) factors in Korean women. US-based absolute risk models overestimated the risks for women aged ≥50 years, and this overestimation was larger for models that only included PRS (expected-to-observed ratio E/O = 1.2 for women <50, E/O = 2.7 for women ≥50). Recalibrated and Korean-based risk models had better calibration in the large, although the risk in the highest decile was consistently overestimated. Absolute risk projections suggest that risk-reducing lifestyle changes would lead to larger absolute risk reductions among women at higher PRS. CONCLUSIONS: Absolute risk models incorporating PRS trained in European and Asian GWAS and population-appropriate average age-specific incidences may be useful for risk-stratified interventions in Korean women.