Mapping IPF helps identify geographic regions at higher risk for disease development and potential triggers.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The relationship between IPF development and environmental factors has not been completely elucidated. Analysing geographic regions of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) cases could help identify those areas with higher aggregation and investigate potential triggers. We hypothesize that cross-analysing location of IPF cases and areas of consistently high air pollution concentration could lead to recognition of environmental risk factors for IPF development. METHODS: This retrospective study analysed epidemiological and clinical data from 503 patients registered in the Observatory IPF.cat from January 2017 to June 2019. Incident and prevalent IPF cases from the Catalan region of Spain were graphed based on their postal address. We generated maps of the most relevant air pollutant PM2.5 from the last 10 years using data from the CALIOPE air quality forecast system and observational data. RESULTS: In 2018, the prevalence of IPF differed across provinces; from 8.1 cases per 100 000 habitants in Barcelona to 2.0 cases per 100 000 in Girona. The ratio of IPF was higher in some areas. Mapping PM2.5 levels illustrated that certain areas with more industry, traffic and shipping maintained markedly higher PM2.5 concentrations. Most of these locations correlated with higher aggregation of IPF cases. Compared with other risk factors, PM2.5 exposure was the most frequent. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study, prevalence of IPF is higher in areas of elevated PM2.5 concentration. Prospective studies with targeted pollution mapping need to be done in specific geographies to compile a broader profile of environmental factors involved in the development of pulmonary fibrosis.

Geographic sources of ozone air pollution and mortality burden in Europe.

Ground-level ozone (O3) is a harmful air pollutant formed in the atmosphere by the interaction between sunlight and precursor gases. Exposure to current O3 levels in Europe is a major source of premature mortality from air pollution. However, mitigation actions have been mainly designed and implemented at the national and regional scales, lacking a comprehensive assessment of the geographic sources of O3 pollution and its associated health impacts. Here we quantify both national and imported contributions to O3 and their related mortality burden across 813 contiguous regions in 35 European countries, representing about 530 million people. Imported O3 contributed to 88.3% of all O3-attributable deaths (intercountry range 83-100%). The greatest share of imported O3 had its origins outside the study domain (that is, hemispheric sources), which was responsible for 56.7% of total O3-attributable mortality (range 42.5-87.2%). It was concluded that achieving the air-quality guidelines set out by the World Health Organization and avoiding the health impacts of O3 require not only the implementation of national or coordinated pan-European actions but also global strategies.

Uncertainties in source allocation of carbonaceous aerosols in a Mediterranean region.

Understanding the atmospheric processes involving carbonaceous aerosols (CAs) is crucial for assessing air pollution impacts on human health and climate. The sources and formation mechanisms of CAs are not well understood, making it challenging to quantify impacts in models. Studies suggest residential wood combustion (RWC) and traffic significantly contribute to CAs in Europe's urban and rural areas. Here, we used an atmospheric chemistry model (MONARCH) and three different emission inventories (two versions of the European-scale emission inventory CAMS-REG_v4 and the HERMESv3 detailed national inventory for Spain) to assess the uncertainties in CAs simulation and source allocation (from traffic, RWC, shipping, fires and others) in Northeast Spain. For this, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) measurements performed at three supersites representing different environments (urban, regional and remote) were used. Our findings show the importance of model resolution and detailed emission input data in accurately reproducing BC/OA observations. Even though emissions of total particulate matter are rather consistent between inventories in Spain, we found discrepancies between them mainly related to the spatiotemporal disaggregation (particularly relevant for traffic and RWC) and the treatment of the condensable fraction of CAs in RWC (changes in the speciation of elemental/organic carbon). The main source contribution to BC concentrations in the urban site is traffic, accounting for 71.1%/65.2% (January/July) in close agreement with the fossil contribution derived from observations (78.8%/84.2%), followed by RWC (12.8%/3%) and shipping emissions (5.4%/13.8%). An over-representation of RWC (winter) and shipping (summer) is obtained with CAMS-REG_v4. Noteworthy uncertainties arise in OA results due to condensables in emissions and a limited secondary aerosol production in the model. These findings offer insights into MONARCH's effectiveness in simulating CAs concentrations and source contribution in Northeast Spain. The study highlights the benefits of combining new datasets and modeling techniques to refine emission inventories and better understand and mitigate air pollution impacts.

Assessing ozone abatement scenarios in the framework of the Spanish ozone mitigation plan.

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a secondary air pollutant that affects human health, vegetation and climate, especially in Mediterranean countries such as Spain. In order to tackle this long-standing issue, the Spanish government recently started to design the Spanish O3 Mitigation Plan. To support this initiative and ultimately provide recommendations, we performed a first ambitious emission and air quality modeling exercise. This study presents the development of different emission scenarios - aligned with or beyond the measures planned for 2030 in Spain - and the modeling of their respective impact on the O3 pollution across Spain (in July 2019) with both MONARCH and WRF-CMAQ air quality models. The modeling experiments include a base case scenario, a so-called planned emission (PE) scenario integrating the expected emission changes related to 2030, and a set of specific emission scenarios in which additional emission changes are applied to specific sectors (on e.g., road transport, maritime traffic) on top of the PE scenario. The planned emission scenario considerably reduces daily 8-h maximum O3 concentrations (-4 µg/m3 on average), with strongest reductions in Madrid region, north of Catalonia, Valencia region, Galicia and Andalusia. The frequency of observed daily exceedances of the 120 µg/m3 daily 8-h maximum target value and 180 µg/m3 hourly information threshold could be reduced by -37 and -77 %, respectively. The results of the specific scenarios highlight road transport and maritime traffic as two key emission sectors contributing to O3 pollution, over the entire country and the Mediterranean coast, respectively, while solvent use and industry emissions have a more limited and localized impact on O3. In any case, even with the implementation of all the emission scenarios, daily exceedances of the aforementioned thresholds will still be recorded over the country.

To what extent the traffic restriction policies applied in Barcelona city can improve its air quality?

Barcelona city (Spain) is applying a series of traffic restriction measures that aim at renewing and reducing the amount of circulating vehicles to improve air quality. The measures include changes in the built environment to reduce private vehicle space in specific areas through the so-called "superblocks" and tactical urban planning actions, along with the implementation of a city-wide Low Emission Zone (LEZ) that restricts the entry of the most polluting vehicles to the city. Our study quantifies the impact of these measures in the greater area of Barcelona combining a coupled macroscopic traffic and pollutant emission model with a multi-scale air quality model. Our modelling system allows estimating the effect of different traffic restrictions upon traffic and the associated emissions and air quality levels at a very high resolution (20 m). The measures were evaluated both individually and collectively to assess both their relative and overall impact upon emissions and air quality. We show that in the absence of traffic demand reductions, the application of isolated measures that reduce private vehicle space, either through superblocks or tactical urban planning, have no overall emission impacts; only localized street-level NOx positive and negative changes (±17%) are found due to traffic re-routing and the generation of new bottlenecks. It is only when these measures are combined with optimistic fleet renewal as a result of the LEZ implementation and demand reductions, that relevant global emission reductions in NOx are obtained (-13% and -30%, respectively) with estimated NO2 reductions of -36% and -23% at the two traffic air quality monitoring stations. Despite the potential improvements, our simulations suggest that current measures are insufficient to comply with EU air quality standards and that further traffic restriction policies to reduce traffic demand are needed.

Differential impact of government lockdown policies on reducing air pollution levels and related mortality in Europe.

Previous studies have reported a decrease in air pollution levels following the enforcement of lockdown measures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these investigations were mostly based on simple pre-post comparisons using past years as a reference and did not assess the role of different policy interventions. This study contributes to knowledge by quantifying the association between specific lockdown measures and the decrease in NO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10 levels across 47 European cities. It also estimated the number of avoided deaths during the period. This paper used new modelled data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) to define business-as-usual and lockdown scenarios of daily air pollution trends. This study applies a spatio-temporal Bayesian non-linear mixed effect model to quantify the changes in pollutant concentrations associated with the stringency indices of individual policy measures. The results indicated non-linear associations with a stronger decrease in NO2 compared to PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at very strict policy levels. Differences across interventions were also identified, specifically the strong effects of actions linked to school/workplace closure, limitations on gatherings, and stay-at-home requirements. Finally, the observed decrease in pollution potentially resulted in hundreds of avoided deaths across Europe.

Lessons from the COVID-19 air pollution decrease in Spain: Now what?

We offer an overview of the COVID-19 -driven air quality changes across 11 metropolises in Spain with the focus on lessons learned on how continuing abating pollution. Traffic flow decreased by up to 80% during the lockdown and remained relatively low during the full relaxation (June and July). After the lockdown a significant shift from public transport to private vehicles (+21% in Barcelona) persisted due to the pervasive fear that using public transport might increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, which need to be reverted as soon as possible. NO2 levels fell below 50% of the WHO annual air quality guidelines (WHOAQGs), but those of PM2.5 were reduced less than expected due to the lower contributions from traffic, increased contributions from agricultural and domestic biomass burning, or meteorological conditions favoring high secondary aerosol formation yields. Even during the lockdown, the annual PM2.5 WHOAQG was exceeded in cities within the NE and E regions with high NH3 emissions from farming and agriculture. Decreases in PM10 levels were greater than in PM2.5 due to reduced emissions from road dust, vehicle wear, and construction/demolition. Averaged O3 daily maximum 8-h (8hDM) experienced a generalized decrease in the rural receptor sites in the relaxation (June-July) with -20% reduced mobility. For urban areas O3 8hDM responses were heterogeneous, with increases or decreases depending on the period and location. Thus, after canceling out the effect of meteorology, 5 out of 11 cities experienced O3 decreases during the lockdown, while the remaining 6 either did not experience relevant reductions or increased. During the relaxation period and coinciding with the growing O3 season (June-July), most cities experienced decreases. However, the O3 WHOAQG was still exceeded during the lockdown and full relaxation periods in several cities. For secondary pollutants, such as O3 and PM2.5, further chemical and dispersion modeling along with source apportionment techniques to identify major precursor reduction targets are required to evaluate their abatement potential.

Ozone source apportionment during peak summer events over southwestern Europe.

It is well established that in Europe, high O3 concentrations are most pronounced in southern/Mediterranean countries due to the more favourable climatological conditions for its formation. However, the contribution of the different sources of precursors to O3 formation within each country relative to the imported (regional and hemispheric) O3 is poorly quantified. This lack of quantitative knowledge prevents local authorities from effectively designing plans that reduce the exceedances of the O3 target value set by the European air quality directive. O3 source attribution is a challenge because the concentration at each location and time results not only from local biogenic and anthropogenic precursors, but also from the transport of O3 and precursors from neighbouring regions, O3 regional and hemispheric transport and stratospheric O3 injections. The main goal of this study is to provide a first quantitative estimation of the contribution of the main anthropogenic activity sectors to peak O3 events in Spain relative to the contribution of imported (regional and hemispheric) O3. We also assess the potential of our source apportionment method to improve O3 modelling. Our study applies and thoroughly evaluates a countrywide O3 source apportionment method implemented in the CALIOPE air quality forecast system for Spain at high resolution (4 × 4 km2) over a 10-day period characterized by typical summer conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The method tags both O3 and its gas precursor emissions from source sectors within one simulation, and each tagged species is subject to the typical physico-chemical processes (advection, vertical mixing, deposition, emission and chemistry) as the actual conditions remain unperturbed. We quantify the individual contributions of the largest NO x local sources to high O3 concentrations compared with the contribution of imported O3. We show, for the first time, that imported O3 is the largest input to the ground-level O3 concentration in the IP, accounting for 46 %-68 % of the daily mean O3 concentration during exceedances of the European target value. The hourly imported O3 increases during typical northwestern advections (70 %-90 %, 60-80 µg m-3), and decreases during typical stagnant conditions (30 %-40 %, 30-60 µg m-3) due to the local NO titration. During stagnant conditions, the local anthropogenic precursors control the O3 peaks in areas downwind of the main urban and industrial regions (up to 40 % in hourly peaks). We also show that ground-level O3 concentrations are strongly affected by vertical mixing of O3-rich layers present in the free troposphere, which result from local/regional layering and accumulation, and continental/hemispheric transport. Indeed, vertical mixing largely explains the presence of imported O3 at ground level in the IP. Our results demonstrate the need for detailed quantification of the local and remote contributions to high O3 concentrations for local O3 management, and show O3 source apportionment to be an essential analysis prior to the design of O3 mitigation plans in any non-attainment area. Achieving the European O3 objectives in southern Europe requires not only ad hoc local actions but also decided national and European-wide strategies.

Current state of the global operational aerosol multi-model ensemble: An update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP).

Since the first International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) multi-model ensemble (MME) study, the number of ICAP global operational aerosol models has increased from five to nine. An update of the current ICAP status is provided, along with an evaluation of the performance of ICAP-MME over 2012-2017, with a focus on June 2016-May 2017. Evaluated with ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and data assimilation quality MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieval products, the ICAP-MME AOD consensus remains the overall top-scoring and most consistent performer among all models in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias and correlation for total, fine- and coarse-mode AODs as well as dust AOD; this is similar to the first ICAP-MME study. Further, over the years, the performance of ICAP-MME is relatively stable and reliable compared to more variability in the individual models. The extent to which the AOD forecast error of ICAP-MME can be predicted is also examined. Leading predictors are found to be the consensus mean and spread. Regression models of absolute forecast errors were built for AOD forecasts of different lengths for potential applications. ICAP-MME performance in terms of modal AOD RMSEs of the 21 regionally representative sites over 2012-2017 suggests a general tendency for model improvements in fine-mode AOD, especially over Asia. No significant improvement in coarse-mode AOD is found overall for this time period.

The use of a modelling system as a tool for air quality management: annual high-resolution simulations and evaluation.

The high levels of air pollutants over the North-Western Mediterranean (NWM) exceed the thresholds set in current air quality regulations. They demand a detailed diagnosis of those areas where the exceedances of thresholds related to human health are found. In this sense, there is a need for modelling studies for the specific area of the NWM that take into account the annual cycle to address the diagnosis of air pollution. A new approach to the modelling of air quality in the NWM has been adopted by combining the WRF-EMICAT-CMAQ-DREAM modelling system to diagnose the current status of the levels of photochemical air pollution (focusing on ozone, O(3); nitrogen dioxide, NO(2); carbon monoxide, CO; and particulate matter, PM10) in the area during an annual cycle (year 2004). The complexity of the area of study requires the application of high spatial and temporal resolution (2 km and 1 h). The annual simulations need to cover the complex different meteorological situations and types of episodes of air pollution in the area of study. The outputs of the modelling system are evaluated against observations from 52 meteorological and 59 air quality stations belonging to the Environmental Department of the Catalonia Government (Spain), which involve a dense and accurate spatial distribution of stations in the territory (32,215 km(2)). The results indicate a good behaviour of the model in both coastal and inland areas of the NWM, with a slight trend to the overestimation of tropospheric O(3) concentrations and the underestimation of other photochemical pollutants (NO(2), CO and PM10). The modelling diagnosis indicates that the main air quality-related problems in the NWM are the exceedances of the 1-hr O(3) information threshold set in the Directive 2002/3/EC (180 microg m(-3)) as a consequence of the transport of O(3) precursors downwind the Barcelona Greater Area (BGA); and the exceedances of the annual value for the protection of human health for NO(2) and PM10 (40 microg m(-3), Directive 1999/30/EC), both in the BGA, as a consequence of the high traffic-related emissions.

Modeled deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe estimated by 14 air quality model systems: evaluation, effects of changes in emissions and implications for habitat protection.

The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives. This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition. This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100 × 100 m2 within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined. Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20 % reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat.