Prediction of the varices needing treatment with non-invasive tests in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS: The Baveno VI guidelines proposed criteria including liver stiffness (LS) and platelet count to avoid screening endoscopy in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). This study was performed to validate the Baveno IV criteria and to compare its diagnostic accuracy with other non-invasive models. METHODS: Patients with cACLD who underwent laboratory tests, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and abdominal ultrasound within 6 months of transient elastography were included. RESULTS: A total of 1218 patients with cACLD were included. VNT occurred in 249 patients (20.4%). With the Baveno VI criteria, the VNT miss rate was 1.9% with a 25.7% saved endoscopy rate. Using two criteria of LS <20 kPa and platelet count >110 × 109  cells/L or LS <25 kPa and platelet count >120 × 109  cells/L, the saved endoscopy rate was 39.1% while maintaining the VNT miss rate <5%. The optimal LS and platelet count-based criteria for predicting VNT differed according to the underlying liver disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of LS-spleen diameter to platelet score (LSPS) was 0.780 (95% confidence interval: 0.774-0.820), which was significantly higher than other models. The optimal cut-off value of the LSPS for predicting VNT was 1.47. CONCLUSION: Liver stiffness and platelet count-based criteria are useful for discriminating patients with very low risk of having VNT among patients with cACLD and are partly affected by the type of underlying liver disease. Conversely, the LSPS is a predictor of VNT in patients with cACLD regardless of the type of underlying liver disease.

Serum cystatin C level: An excellent predictor of mortality in patients with cirrhotic ascites.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Although serum cystatin C level is considered a more accurate marker of renal function in patients with liver cirrhosis, its prognostic efficacy remains uncertain. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic efficacy of serum cystatin C level in patients with cirrhotic ascites. METHODS: Patients with cirrhotic ascites from 15 hospitals were prospectively enrolled between September 2009 and March 2013. Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictive factors of mortality and development of type 1 hepatorenal syndrome (HRS-1). RESULTS: In total, 350 patients were enrolled in this study. The mean age was 55.4 ± 10.8 years, and 267 patients (76.3%) were men. The leading cause of liver cirrhosis was alcoholic liver disease (64.3%), followed by chronic viral hepatitis (29.7%). Serum creatinine and cystatin C levels were 0.9 ± 0.4 mg/dL and 1.1 ± 0.5 mg/L, respectively. Multivariate analyses revealed that international normalized ratio and serum bilirubin, sodium, and cystatin C levels were independent predictors of mortality and international normalized ratio and serum sodium and cystatin C levels were independent predictors of the development of HRS-1. Serum creatinine level was not significantly associated with mortality and development of HRS-1 on multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Serum cystatin C level was an independent predictor of mortality and development of HRS-1 in patients with cirrhotic ascites, while serum creatinine level was not. Predictive models based on serum cystatin C level instead of serum creatinine level would be more helpful in the assessment of the condition and prognosis of patients with cirrhotic ascites.