Comparison of Prevalence- and Smoking Impact Ratio-Based Methods of Estimating Smoking-Attributable Fractions of Deaths.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. Estimating the smoking-attributable burden is important for public health policy. Typically, prevalence- or smoking impact ratio (SIR)-based methods are used to derive estimates, but there is controversy over which method is more appropriate for country-specific estimates. We compared smoking-attributable fractions (SAFs) of deaths estimated by these two methods. METHODS: To estimate SAFs in 2012, we used several different prevalence-based approaches using no lag and 10- and 20-year lags. For the SIR-based method, we obtained lung cancer mortality rates from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS) and from the United States-based Cancer Prevention Study-II (CPS-II). The relative risks for the diseases associated with smoking were also obtained from these cohort studies. RESULTS: For males, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were similar to those obtained using prevalence-based methods. For females, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were markedly greater than all prevalence-based SAFs. Differences in prevalence-based SAFs by time-lag period were minimal among males, but SAFs obtained using longer-lagged prevalence periods were significantly larger among females. SAFs obtained using CPS-II-based SIRs were lower than KCPS-based SAFs by >15 percentage points for most diseases, with the exceptions of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CONCLUSIONS: SAFs obtained using prevalence- and SIR-based methods were similar for males. However, neither prevalence-based nor SIR-based methods resulted in precise SAFs among females. The characteristics of the study population should be carefully considered when choosing a method to estimate SAF.

Hidden female smokers in Asia: a comparison of self-reported with cotinine-verified smoking prevalence rates in representative national data from an Asian population.

BACKGROUND: The low smoking prevalence in Asian women may be due to under-reporting. We therefore investigated gender difference in self-reported and cotinine-verified smoking prevalence rates in Korea METHODS: We analysed data from 5455 individuals (2387 men and 3068 women) in the 2008 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. A urinary cotinine concentration of 50 ng/ml was the cut-off distinguishing smokers from non-smokers. Sensitivity analysis was done using different cut-offs of 25, 75 and 100 ng/ml. RESULTS: Cotinine-verified smoking rates were 50.0% for men and 13.9% for women, or 5.3% point and 8.0% point higher in absolute terms, respectively, than the self-reported rates for men and women. Ratios of cotinine-verified to self-reported smoking rates were 2.36 for women and 1.12 for men. Of the 1620 cotinine-verified smokers, 12.1% of men and 58.9% of women classified themselves as non-smokers. Women who live with a spouse or parents tend to under-report their smoking more than those who live alone or with others. CONCLUSION: Since the number of self-reported female smokers was less than half of cotinine-verified smokers, current anti-smoking policies based on self-reported smoking prevalence rates in Korea should be further directed towards hidden female smokers. Also, biochemical verification needs to be considered with national tobacco surveys in Asian countries.