Potential for Recurrent Mpox Outbreaks Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men - United States, 2023.

More than 30,000 monkeypox (mpox) cases have been diagnosed in the United States since May 2022, primarily among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) (1,2). In recent months, diagnoses have declined to one case per day on average. However, mpox vaccination coverage varies regionally, suggesting variable potential risk for mpox outbreak recurrence (3). CDC simulated dynamic network models representing sexual behavior among MSM to estimate the risk for and potential size of recurrent mpox outbreaks at the jurisdiction level for 2023 and to evaluate the benefits of vaccination for preparedness against mpox reintroduction. The risk for outbreak recurrence after mpox reintroduction is linearly (inversely) related to the proportion of MSM who have some form of protective immunity: the higher the population prevalence of immunity (from vaccination or natural infection), the lower the likelihood of recurrence in that jurisdiction across all immunity levels modeled. In contrast, the size of a potential recurrent outbreak might have thresholds: very small recurrences are predicted for jurisdictions with mpox immunity of 50%-100%; exponentially increasing sizes of recurrences are predicted for jurisdictions with 25%-50% immunity; and linearly increasing sizes of recurrences are predicted for jurisdictions with <25% immunity. Among the 50 jurisdictions examined, 15 are predicted to be at minimal risk for recurrence because of their high levels of population immunity. This analysis underscores the ongoing need for accessible and sustained mpox vaccination to decrease the risk for and potential size of future mpox recurrences.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in an ethnically-diverse high incidence region in England, 2007-11.

BACKGROUND: Transmission patterns in high tuberculosis incidence areas in England are poorly understood but need elucidating to focus contact tracing. We study transmission within and between age, ethnic and immigrant groups using molecular data from the high incidence West Midlands region. METHODS: Isolates from culture-confirmed tuberculosis cases during 2007-2011 were typed using 24-locus Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Unit-Variable Number Tandem Repeats (MIRU-VNTR). We estimated the proportion of disease attributable to recent transmission, calculated the proportion of isolates matching those from the two preceding years ("retrospectively clustered"), and identified risk factors for retrospective clustering using multivariate analyses. We calculated the ratio (RCR) between the observed and expected proportion clustered retrospectively within or between age, ethnic and immigrant groups. RESULTS: Of the 2159 available genotypes (79% of culture-confirmed cases), 34% were attributed to recent transmission. The percentage retrospectively clustered decreased from 50 to 24% for 0-14 and ≥ 65 year olds respectively (p = 0.01) and was significantly lower for immigrants than the UK-born. Higher than expected clustering occurred within 15-24 year olds (RCR: 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1-1.8)), several ethnic groups, and between UK-born or long-term immigrants with the UK-born (RCR: 1.8 (95% CI: 1.1-2.4) and 1.6 (95% CI: 1.2-1.9) respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to consider "who clusters with whom" in a high incidence area in England, laying the foundation for future whole-genome sequencing work. The higher than expected clustering seen here suggests that preferential mixing between some age, ethnic and immigrant groups occurs; prioritising contact tracing to groups with which cases are most likely to cluster retrospectively could improve TB control.

Phylogenetic structure of Floridian plant communities depends on taxonomic and spatial scale.

Consideration of the scale at which communities are defined both taxonomically and spatially can reconcile apparently contradictory results on the extent to which plants show phylogenetic niche conservatism. In plant communities in north central Florida, we collected species abundances in 55 0.1-ha plots in several state parks. When communities were defined narrowly to include a single phylogenetic lineage, such as Quercus, Pinus, or Ilex, neighbors tended to be less related than expected (phylogenetic overdispersion) or there was no pattern. If the same communities were defined more broadly, such as when all seed plants were included, neighbors tended to be more related than expected (phylogenetic clustering). These results provide evidence that species interactions among close relatives influence community structure, but they also show that niche conservatism is increasingly evident as communities are defined to include greater phylogenetic diversity. We also found that, as the spatial scale is increased to encompass greater environmental heterogeneity, niche conservatism emerges as the dominant pattern. We then examined patterns of trait evolution in relation to trait similarity within communities for 11 functional traits for a single phylogenetic lineage (Quercus) and for all woody plants. Among the oaks, convergent evolution of traits important for environmental filtering contributes to the observed pattern of phylogenetic overdispersion. At the broader taxonomic scale, traits tend to be conserved, giving rise to phylogenetic clustering. The shift from overdispersion to clustering can be explained by the increasing conservatism of traits at broader phylogenetic scales.