Assessing and reporting uncertainties in dietary exposure analysis - Part II: Application of the uncertainty template to a practical example of exposure assessment.

A previous publication described methods for assessing and reporting uncertainty in dietary exposure assessments. This follow-up publication uses a case study to develop proposals for representing and communicating uncertainty to risk managers. The food ingredient aspartame is used as the case study in a simple deterministic model (the EFSA FAIM template) and with more sophisticated probabilistic exposure assessment software (FACET). Parameter and model uncertainties are identified for each modelling approach and tabulated. The relative importance of each source of uncertainty is then evaluated using a semi-quantitative scale and the results expressed using two different forms of graphical summary. The value of this approach in expressing uncertainties in a manner that is relevant to the exposure assessment and useful to risk managers is then discussed. It was observed that the majority of uncertainties are often associated with data sources rather than the model itself. However, differences in modelling methods can have the greatest impact on uncertainties overall, particularly when the underlying data are the same. It was concluded that improved methods for communicating uncertainties for risk management is the research area where the greatest amount of effort is suggested to be placed in future.

Assessing and reporting uncertainties in dietary exposure analysis: Mapping of uncertainties in a tiered approach.

Uncertainty analysis is an important component of dietary exposure assessments in order to understand correctly the strength and limits of its results. Often, standard screening procedures are applied in a first step which results in conservative estimates. If through those screening procedures a potential exceedance of health-based guidance values is indicated, within the tiered approach more refined models are applied. However, the sources and types of uncertainties in deterministic and probabilistic models can vary or differ. A key objective of this work has been the mapping of different sources and types of uncertainties to better understand how to best use uncertainty analysis to generate more realistic comprehension of dietary exposure. In dietary exposure assessments, uncertainties can be introduced by knowledge gaps about the exposure scenario, parameter and the model itself. With this mapping, general and model-independent uncertainties have been identified and described, as well as those which can be introduced and influenced by the specific model during the tiered approach. This analysis identifies that there are general uncertainties common to point estimates (screening or deterministic methods) and probabilistic exposure assessment methods. To provide further clarity, general sources of uncertainty affecting many dietary exposure assessments should be separated from model-specific uncertainties.

Availability of vitamin B6 from different food sources.

The present study was conducted to investigate the precaecal digestibility of vitamin B6 from selected food sources including eggs, bananas, white cabbage, corn, milk powder, fish, barley, soybeans, brown rice, wheat bran, brewer's yeast, rye and soybean meal. These foods were chosen for their relevance in human and animal nutrition and prepared as they are usually eaten by humans. As confirmed by further investigations the precaecal digestibility is a valuable measure for determining the availability of native B-vitamins. Therefore, pigs were fitted with an end-to-end ileo-rectal anastomosis for digesta passing straight from ileum to rectum, thus avoiding endogenous vitamin synthesis by the colon. Three weeks after surgery the digestibility experiments were carried out during which the animals were fed various experimental diets for a period of 12 days and digesta were collected quantitatively twice a day during the final 5 days of this period. The concentration of vitamin B6 in foods and chyme was determined by high pressure liquid chromatography. Precaecal digestibility of vitamin B6 from all tested food sources ranged from 51 to 91% in the following order: cabbage diet > banana diet > fish diet > milk powder diet > brewer's yeast diet > soybeans diet > soybean meal diet > egg diet/corn diet > barley diet > wheat bran diet > rye diet. Only boiled brown rice had a very low vitamin B6 availability of 16%. The digestibility of vitamin B6 from plant products (excluding the rice) was on average 10% lower when compared with animal products (71 versus 79%).