Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning.

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (ß coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Genetic insights into the age-specific biological mechanisms governing human ovarian aging.

There is currently little evidence that the genetic basis of human phenotype varies significantly across the lifespan. However, time-to-event phenotypes are understudied and can be thought of as reflecting an underlying hazard, which is unlikely to be constant through life when values take a broad range. Here, we find that 74% of 245 genome-wide significant genetic associations with age at natural menopause (ANM) in the UK Biobank show a form of age-specific effect. Nineteen of these replicated discoveries are identified only by our modeling framework, which determines the time dependency of DNA-variant age-at-onset associations without a significant multiple-testing burden. Across the range of early to late menopause, we find evidence for significantly different underlying biological pathways, changes in the signs of genetic correlations of ANM to health indicators and outcomes, and differences in inferred causal relationships. We find that DNA damage response processes only act to shape ovarian reserve and depletion for women of early ANM. Genetically mediated delays in ANM were associated with increased relative risk of breast cancer and leiomyoma at all ages and with high cholesterol and heart failure for late-ANM women. These findings suggest that a better understanding of the age dependency of genetic risk factor relationships among health indicators and outcomes is achievable through appropriate statistical modeling of large-scale biobank data.

GWAS meta-analyses clarify the genetics of cervical phenotypes and inform risk stratification for cervical cancer.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified associations for cervical cancer, but the underlying mechanisms of cervical biology and pathology remain uncharacterised. Our GWAS meta-analyses fill this gap, as we characterise the genetic architecture of cervical phenotypes, including cervical ectropion, cervicitis, cervical dysplasia, as well as up to 9229 cases and 490 304 controls for cervical cancer from diverse ancestries. Leveraging the latest computational methods and gene expression data, we refine the association signals for cervical cancer and propose potential causal variants and genes at each locus. We prioritise PAX8/PAX8-AS1, LINC00339, CDC42, CLPTM1L, HLA-DRB1 and GSDMB as the most likely candidate genes for cervical cancer signals, providing insights into cervical cancer pathogenesis and supporting the involvement of reproductive tract development, immune response and cellular proliferation/apoptosis. We construct a genetic risk score (GRS) that is associated with cervical cancer [hazard ratios (HR) = 3.1 (1.7-5.6) for the top 15% vs lowest 15% of individuals], and with other HPV- and immune-system-related diagnoses in a phenome-wide association study analysis. Our results propose valuable leads for further functional studies and present a GRS for cervical cancer that allows additional risk stratification and could potentially be used to personalise the conventional screening strategies for groups more susceptible to cervical cancer.

Improving GWAS discovery and genomic prediction accuracy in biobank data.

Genetically informed, deep-phenotyped biobanks are an important research resource and it is imperative that the most powerful, versatile, and efficient analysis approaches are used. Here, we apply our recently developed Bayesian grouped mixture of regressions model (GMRM) in the UK and Estonian Biobanks and obtain the highest genomic prediction accuracy reported to date across 21 heritable traits. When compared to other approaches, GMRM accuracy was greater than annotation prediction models run in the LDAK or LDPred-funct software by 15% (SE 7%) and 14% (SE 2%), respectively, and was 18% (SE 3%) greater than a baseline BayesR model without single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers grouped into minor allele frequency-linkage disequilibrium (MAF-LD) annotation categories. For height, the prediction accuracy R2 was 47% in a UK Biobank holdout sample, which was 76% of the estimated [Formula: see text]. We then extend our GMRM prediction model to provide mixed-linear model association (MLMA) SNP marker estimates for genome-wide association (GWAS) discovery, which increased the independent loci detected to 16,162 in unrelated UK Biobank individuals, compared to 10,550 from BoltLMM and 10,095 from Regenie, a 62 and 65% increase, respectively. The average [Formula: see text] value of the leading markers increased by 15.24 (SE 0.41) for every 1% increase in prediction accuracy gained over a baseline BayesR model across the traits. Thus, we show that modeling genetic associations accounting for MAF and LD differences among SNP markers, and incorporating prior knowledge of genomic function, is important for both genomic prediction and discovery in large-scale individual-level studies.

Contribution of schizophrenia polygenic burden to longitudinal phenotypic variance in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome.

While the recurrent 22q11.2 deletion is one of the strongest genetic risk factors for schizophrenia (SCZ), variability of its associated neuropsychiatric endophenotypes reflects its incomplete penetrance for psychosis development. To assess whether this phenotypic variability is linked to common variants associated with SCZ, we studied the association between SCZ polygenic risk score (PRS) and longitudinally acquired phenotypic information of the Swiss 22q11.2DS cohort (n = 97, 50% females, mean age 17.7 yr, mean visit interval 3.8 yr). The SCZ PRS with the best predictive performance was ascertained in the Estonian Biobank (n = 201,146) with LDpred. The infinitesimal SCZ PRS model showed the strongest capacity in discriminating SCZ cases from controls with one SD difference in SCZ PRS corresponding to an odds ratio (OR) of 1.73 (95% CI 1.57-1.90, P = 1.47 × 10-29). In 22q11.2 patients, random-effects ordinal regression modelling using longitudinal data showed SCZ PRS to have the strongest effect on social anhedonia (OR = 2.09, P = 0.0002), and occupational functioning (OR = 1.82, P = 0.0003) within the negative symptoms course, and dysphoric mood (OR = 2.00, P = 0.002) and stress intolerance (OR = 1.76, P = 0.0002) within the general symptoms course. Genetic liability for SCZ was additionally associated with full scale cognitive decline (ß = -0.25, P = 0.02) and with longitudinal volumetric reduction of the right and left hippocampi (ß = -0.28, P = 0.005; ß = -0.23, P = 0.02, respectively). Our results indicate that the polygenic contribution to SCZ acts upon the threshold-lowering first hit (i.e., the deletion). It modifies the endophenotypes of 22q11.2DS and augments the derailment of developmental trajectories of negative and general symptoms, cognition, and hippocampal volume.

Estimation of recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular event risk in patients with established cardiovascular disease: the updated SMART2 algorithm.

AIMS: The 10-year risk of recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in patients with established ASCVD can be estimated with the Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) risk score, and may help refine clinical management. To broaden generalizability across regions, we updated the existing tool (SMART2 risk score) and recalibrated it with regional incidence rates and assessed its performance in external populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individuals with coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, or abdominal aortic aneurysms were included from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-SMART cohort [n = 8355; 1706 ASCVD events during a median follow-up of 8.2 years (interquartile range 4.2-12.5)] to derive a 10-year risk prediction model for recurrent ASCVD events (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or cardiovascular mortality) using a Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted model. The model was recalibrated to four regions across Europe, and to Asia (excluding Japan), Japan, Australia, North America, and Latin America using contemporary cohort data from each target region. External validation used data from seven cohorts [Clinical Practice Research Datalink, SWEDEHEART, the international REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry, Estonian Biobank, Spanish Biomarkers in Acute Coronary Syndrome and Biomarkers in Acute Myocardial Infarction (BACS/BAMI), the Norwegian COgnitive Impairment After STroke, and Bialystok PLUS/Polaspire] and included 369 044 individuals with established ASCVD of whom 62 807 experienced an ASCVD event. C-statistics ranged from 0.605 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.547-0.664] in BACS/BAMI to 0.772 (95% CI 0.659-0.886) in REACH Europe high-risk region. The clinical utility of the model was demonstrated across a range of clinically relevant treatment thresholds for intensified treatment options. CONCLUSION: The SMART2 risk score provides an updated, validated tool for the prediction of recurrent ASCVD events in patients with established ASCVD across European and non-European populations. The use of this tool could allow for a more personalized approach to secondary prevention based upon quantitative rather than qualitative estimates of residual risk.

Validating the doubly weighted genetic risk score for the prediction of type 2 diabetes in the Lifelines and Estonian Biobank cohorts.

As many cases of type 2 diabetes (T2D) are likely to remain undiagnosed, better tools for early detection of high-risk individuals are needed to prevent or postpone the disease. We investigated the value of the doubly weighted genetic risk score (dwGRS) for the prediction of incident T2D in the Lifelines and Estonian Biobank (EstBB) cohorts. The dwGRS uses an additional weight for each single nucleotide polymorphism in the risk score, to correct for "Winner's curse" bias in the effect size estimates. The traditional (single-weighted genetic risk score; swGRS) and dwGRS were calculated for participants in Lifelines (n = 12,018) and EstBB (n = 34,129). The dwGRS was found to have stronger association with incident T2D (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.26 [95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.43] and HR = 1.35 [1.28-1.42]) compared to the swGRS (HR = 1.21 [1.07-1.38] and HR = 1.25 [1.19-1.32]) in Lifelines and EstBB, respectively. Comparing the 5-year predicted risks from the models with and without the dwGRS, the continuous net reclassification index was 0.140 (0.034-0.243; p = .009 Lifelines), and 0.257 (0.194-0.319; p < 2 × 10-16 EstBB). The dwGRS provided incremental value to the T2D prediction model with established phenotypic predictors. It clearly distinguished the risk groups for incident T2D in both biobanks thereby showing its clinical relevance.

Development and validation of two SCORE-based cardiovascular risk prediction models for Eastern Europe: a multicohort study.

AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models are used in Western European countries, but less so in Eastern European countries where rates of CVD can be two to four times higher. We recalibrated the SCORE prediction model for three Eastern European countries and evaluated the impact of adding seven behavioural and psychosocial risk factors to the model. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed and validated models using data from the prospective HAPIEE cohort study with 14 598 participants from Russia, Poland, and the Czech Republic (derivation cohort, median follow-up 7.2 years, 338 fatal CVD cases) and Estonian Biobank data with 4632 participants (validation cohort, median follow-up 8.3 years, 91 fatal CVD cases). The first model (recalibrated SCORE) used the same risk factors as in the SCORE model. The second model (HAPIEE SCORE) added education, employment, marital status, depression, body mass index, physical inactivity, and antihypertensive use. Discrimination of the original SCORE model (C-statistic 0.78 in the derivation and 0.83 in the validation cohorts) was improved in recalibrated SCORE (0.82 and 0.85) and HAPIEE SCORE (0.84 and 0.87) models. After dichotomizing risk at the clinically meaningful threshold of 5%, and when comparing the final HAPIEE SCORE model against the original SCORE model, the net reclassification improvement was 0.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.11] in the derivation cohort and 0.14 (95% CI 0.04-0.25) in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Our recalibrated SCORE may be more appropriate than the conventional SCORE for some Eastern European populations. The addition of seven quick, non-invasive, and cheap predictors further improved prediction accuracy.

Recall by genotype and cascade screening for familial hypercholesterolemia in a population-based biobank from Estonia.

PURPOSE: Large-scale, population-based biobanks integrating health records and genomic profiles may provide a platform to identify individuals with disease-predisposing genetic variants. Here, we recall probands carrying familial hypercholesterolemia (FH)-associated variants, perform cascade screening of family members, and describe health outcomes affected by such a strategy. METHODS: The Estonian Biobank of Estonian Genome Center, University of Tartu, comprises 52,274 individuals. Among 4776 participants with exome or genome sequences, we identified 27 individuals who carried FH-associated variants in the LDLR, APOB, or PCSK9 genes. Cascade screening of 64 family members identified an additional 20 carriers of FH-associated variants. RESULTS: Via genetic counseling and clinical management of carriers, we were able to reclassify 51% of the study participants from having previously established nonspecific hypercholesterolemia to having FH and identify 32% who were completely unaware of harboring a high-risk disease-associated genetic variant. Imaging-based risk stratification targeted 86% of the variant carriers for statin treatment recommendations. CONCLUSION: Genotype-guided recall of probands and subsequent cascade screening for familial hypercholesterolemia is feasible within a population-based biobank and may facilitate more appropriate clinical management.

Polygenic prediction of breast cancer: comparison of genetic predictors and implications for risk stratification.

BACKGROUND: Published genetic risk scores for breast cancer (BC) so far have been based on a relatively small number of markers and are not necessarily using the full potential of large-scale Genome-Wide Association Studies. This study aimed to identify an efficient polygenic predictor for BC based on best available evidence and to assess its potential for personalized risk prediction and screening strategies. METHODS: Four different genetic risk scores (two already published and two newly developed) and their combinations (metaGRS) were compared in the subsets of two population-based biobank cohorts: the UK Biobank (UKBB, 3157 BC cases, 43,827 controls) and Estonian Biobank (EstBB, 317 prevalent and 308 incident BC cases in 32,557 women). In addition, correlations between different genetic risk scores and their associations with BC risk factors were studied in both cohorts. RESULTS: The metaGRS that combines two genetic risk scores (metaGRS2 - based on 75 and 898 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, respectively) had the strongest association with prevalent BC status in both cohorts. One standard deviation difference in the metaGRS2 corresponded to an Odds Ratio = 1.6 (95% CI 1.54 to 1.66, p = 9.7*10- 135) in the UK Biobank and accounting for family history marginally attenuated the effect (Odds Ratio = 1.58, 95% CI 1.53 to 1.64, p = 7.8*10- 129). In the EstBB cohort, the hazard ratio of incident BC for the women in the top 5% of the metaGRS2 compared to women in the lowest 50% was 4.2 (95% CI 2.8 to 6.2, p = 8.1*10- 13). The different GRSs were only moderately correlated with each other and were associated with different known predictors of BC. The classification of genetic risk for the same individual varied considerably depending on the chosen GRS. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that metaGRS2, that combined on the effects of more than 900 SNPs, provided best predictive ability for breast cancer in two different population-based cohorts. The strength of the effect of metaGRS2 indicates that the GRS could potentially be used to develop more efficient strategies for breast cancer screening for genotyped women.

Genetic variants linked to education predict longevity.

Educational attainment is associated with many health outcomes, including longevity. It is also known to be substantially heritable. Here, we used data from three large genetic epidemiology cohort studies (Generation Scotland, n = ∼17,000; UK Biobank, n = ∼115,000; and the Estonian Biobank, n = ∼6,000) to test whether education-linked genetic variants can predict lifespan length. We did so by using cohort members' polygenic profile score for education to predict their parents' longevity. Across the three cohorts, meta-analysis showed that a 1 SD higher polygenic education score was associated with ∼2.7% lower mortality risk for both mothers (total ndeaths = 79,702) and ∼2.4% lower risk for fathers (total ndeaths = 97,630). On average, the parents of offspring in the upper third of the polygenic score distribution lived 0.55 y longer compared with those of offspring in the lower third. Overall, these results indicate that the genetic contributions to educational attainment are useful in the prediction of human longevity.

Personalized risk prediction for type 2 diabetes: the potential of genetic risk scores.

PURPOSE: Using effect estimates from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), we identified a genetic risk score (GRS) that has the strongest association with type 2 diabetes (T2D) status in a population-based cohort and investigated its potential for prospective T2D risk assessment. METHODS: By varying the number of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and their respective weights, alternative versions of GRS can be computed. They were tested in 1,181 T2D cases and 9,092 controls of the Estonian Biobank cohort. The best-fitting GRS was chosen for the subsequent analysis of incident T2D (386 cases). RESULTS: The best fit was provided by a novel doubly weighted GRS that captures the effect of 1,000 SNPs. The hazard for incident T2D was 3.45 times (95% CI: 2.31-5.17) higher in the highest GRS quintile compared with the lowest quintile, after adjusting for body mass index and other known predictors. Adding GRS to the prediction model for 5-year T2D risk resulted in continuous net reclassification improvement of 0.324 (95% CI: 0.211-0.444). In addition, a significant effect of the GRS on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed. CONCLUSION: The proposed GRS would improve the accuracy of T2D risk prediction when added to the currently used set of predictors.Genet Med 19 3, 322-329.

Variability of polygenic prediction for body mass index in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic prediction studies in continental Africans are scarce. Africa's genetic and environmental diversity pose a challenge that limits the generalizability of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for body mass index (BMI) within the continent. Studies to understand the factors that affect PRS variability within Africa are required. METHODS: Using the first multi-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis for BMI involving continental Africans, we derived a multi-ancestry PRS and compared its performance to a European ancestry-specific PRS in continental Africans (AWI-Gen study) and a European cohort (Estonian Biobank). We then evaluated the factors affecting the performance of the PRS in Africans which included fine-mapping resolution, allele frequencies, linkage disequilibrium patterns, and PRS-environment interactions. RESULTS: Polygenic prediction of BMI in continental Africans is poor compared to that in European ancestry individuals. However, we show that the multi-ancestry PRS is more predictive than the European ancestry-specific PRS due to its improved fine-mapping resolution. We noted regional variation in polygenic prediction across Africa's East, South, and West regions, which was driven by a complex interplay of the PRS with environmental factors, such as physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, and socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the role of gene-environment interactions in PRS prediction variability in Africa. PRS methods that correct for these interactions, coupled with the increased representation of Africans in GWAS, may improve PRS prediction in Africa.

A unified framework for estimating country-specific cumulative incidence for 18 diseases stratified by polygenic risk.

Polygenic scores (PGSs) offer the ability to predict genetic risk for complex diseases across the life course; a key benefit over short-term prediction models. To produce risk estimates relevant to clinical and public health decision-making, it is important to account for varying effects due to age and sex. Here, we develop a novel framework to estimate country-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of cumulative incidence stratified by PGS for 18 high-burden diseases. We integrate PGS associations from seven studies in four countries (N = 1,197,129) with disease incidences from the Global Burden of Disease. PGS has a significant sex-specific effect for asthma, hip osteoarthritis, gout, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D), with all but T2D exhibiting a larger effect in men. PGS has a larger effect in younger individuals for 13 diseases, with effects decreasing linearly with age. We show for breast cancer that, relative to individuals in the bottom 20% of polygenic risk, the top 5% attain an absolute risk for screening eligibility 16.3 years earlier. Our framework increases the generalizability of results from biobank studies and the accuracy of absolute risk estimates by appropriately accounting for age- and sex-specific PGS effects. Our results highlight the potential of PGS as a screening tool which may assist in the early prevention of common diseases.

Novel ancestry-specific primary open-angle glaucoma loci and shared biology with vascular mechanisms and cell proliferation.

Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), a leading cause of irreversible blindness globally, shows disparity in prevalence and manifestations across ancestries. We perform meta-analysis across 15 biobanks (of the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative) (n = 1,487,441: cases = 26,848) and merge with previous multi-ancestry studies, with the combined dataset representing the largest and most diverse POAG study to date (n = 1,478,037: cases = 46,325) and identify 17 novel significant loci, 5 of which were ancestry specific. Gene-enrichment and transcriptome-wide association analyses implicate vascular and cancer genes, a fifth of which are primary ciliary related. We perform an extensive statistical analysis of SIX6 and CDKN2B-AS1 loci in human GTEx data and across large electronic health records showing interaction between SIX6 gene and causal variants in the chr9p21.3 locus, with expression effect on CDKN2A/B. Our results suggest that some POAG risk variants may be ancestry specific, sex specific, or both, and support the contribution of genes involved in programmed cell death in POAG pathogenesis.

Polygenic risk scores for cervical HPV infection, neoplasia and cancer show potential for personalised screening: comparison of two methods.

The era of precision medicine requires the achievement of accurate risk assessment. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have strong potential for increasing the benefits of nationwide cancer screening programs. The current pool of evidence on the role of a PRS as a risk stratification model in actual practice and implementation is limited. To better understand the impact of possible method-induced variance, we constructed and validated two PRSs for cervical cancer (CC) using the Estonian Biobank female population (691 CC cases and 13,820 controls) and evaluated their utility in predicting incident cervical neoplasia (CIN), cancer, and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection using two methods (LDPred and BayesRR-RC). This study demonstrated that two genetic risk scores were significantly associated with CIN, CC, and HPV infection incidence. Independent of the method, we demonstrated that women with elevated PRS values reached the observed cumulative risk levels of CIN or CC much earlier. Our results indicated that the PRS-based discrimination rules could differ substantially when the PRSs contain similar predictive information. In summary, our analysis indicated that PRSs represent a personalized genetic component that could be an additional tool for cervical cancer risk stratification, and earlier detection of abnormalities provides invaluable information for those at high risk.

Genetic and modifiable risk factors combine multiplicatively in common disease.

BACKGROUND: The joint contribution of genetic and environmental exposures to noncommunicable diseases is not well characterized. OBJECTIVES: We modeled the cumulative effects of common risk alleles and their prevalence variations with classical risk factors. METHODS: We analyzed mathematically and statistically numbers and effect sizes of established risk alleles for coronary artery disease (CAD) and other conditions. RESULTS: In UK Biobank, risk alleles counts in the lowest (175.4) and highest decile (205.7) of the distribution differed by only 16.9%, which nevertheless increased CAD prevalence 3.4-fold (p < 0.01). Irrespective of the affected gene, a single risk allele multiplied the effects of all others carried by a person, resulting in a 2.9-fold stronger effect size in the top versus the bottom decile (p < 0.01) and an exponential increase in risk (R > 0.94). Classical risk factors shifted effect sizes to the steep upslope of the logarithmic function linking risk allele numbers with CAD prevalence. Similar phenomena were observed in the Estonian Biobank and for risk alleles affecting diabetes mellitus, breast and prostate cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Alleles predisposing to common diseases can be carried safely in large numbers, but few additional ones lead to sharp risk increments. Here, we describe exponential functions by which risk alleles combine interchangeably but multiplicatively with each other and with modifiable risk factors to affect prevalence. Our data suggest that the biological systems underlying these diseases are modulated by hundreds of genes but become only fragile when a narrow window of total risk, irrespective of its genetic or environmental origins, has been passed.

Lessons learned during the process of reporting individual genomic results to participants of a population-based biobank.

The return of individual genomic results (ROR) to research participants is still in its early phase, and insight on how individuals respond to ROR is scarce. Studies contributing to the evidence base for best practices are crucial before these can be established. Here, we describe a ROR procedure conducted at a population-based biobank, followed by surveying the responses of almost 3000 participants to a range of results, and discuss lessons learned from the process, with the aim of facilitating large-scale expansion. Overall, participants perceived the information that they received with counseling as valuable, even when the reporting of high risks initially caused worry. The face-to-face delivery of results limited the number of participants who received results. Although the participants highly valued this type of communication, additional means of communication need to be considered to improve the feasibility of large-scale ROR. The feedback collected sheds light on the value judgements of the participants and on potential responses to the receipt of genetic risk information. Biobanks in other countries are planning or conducting similar projects, and the sharing of lessons learned may provide valuable insight and aid such endeavors.

Global Biobank analyses provide lessons for developing polygenic risk scores across diverse cohorts.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been widely explored in precision medicine. However, few studies have thoroughly investigated their best practices in global populations across different diseases. We here utilized data from Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI) to explore methodological considerations and PRS performance in 9 different biobanks for 14 disease endpoints. Specifically, we constructed PRSs using pruning and thresholding (P + T) and PRS-continuous shrinkage (CS). For both methods, using a European-based linkage disequilibrium (LD) reference panel resulted in comparable or higher prediction accuracy compared with several other non-European-based panels. PRS-CS overall outperformed the classic P + T method, especially for endpoints with higher SNP-based heritability. Notably, prediction accuracy is heterogeneous across endpoints, biobanks, and ancestries, especially for asthma, which has known variation in disease prevalence across populations. Overall, we provide lessons for PRS construction, evaluation, and interpretation using GBMI resources and highlight the importance of best practices for PRS in the biobank-scale genomics era.

Advancing our understanding of genetic risk factors and potential personalized strategies for pelvic organ prolapse.

Pelvic organ prolapse is a common gynecological condition with limited understanding of its genetic background. In this work, we perform a genome-wide association meta-analysis comprising 28,086 cases and 546,291 controls from European ancestry. We identify 19 novel genome-wide significant loci, highlighting connective tissue, urogenital and cardiometabolic as likely affected systems. Here, we prioritize many genes of potential interest and assess shared genetic and phenotypic links. Additionally, we present the first polygenic risk score, which shows similar predictive ability (Harrell C-statistic (C-stat) 0.583, standard deviation (sd) = 0.007) as five established clinical risk factors combined (number of children, body mass index, ever smoked, constipation and asthma) (C-stat = 0.588, sd = 0.007) and demonstrates a substantial incremental value in combination with these (C-stat = 0.630, sd = 0.007). These findings improve our understanding of genetic factors underlying pelvic organ prolapse and provide a solid start evaluating polygenic risk scores as a potential tool to enhance individual risk prediction.