Early administration of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir leads to faster negative SARS-CoV-2 nasal swabs than monoclonal antibodies in COVID 19 patients at high-risk for severe disease.

PURPOSE: Besides the well-established efficacy in preventing severe COVID-19, the impact of early treatments, namely antivirals and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), on the time length to negativization of SARS-CoV-2 nasal swabs is still unclear. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of different early treatments in reducing the SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding, identifying a single drug that might potentially lead to a more rapid negativization of SARS-CoV-2 nasal swab. METHODS: This was a single-centre, retrospective, observational study conducted at Ospedale Luigi Sacco in Milan. Data of high-risk COVID-19 patients who received early treatments between 23 December 2021 and March 2023 were extracted. The comparison across treatments was conducted using the Kruskall-Wallis test for continuous variables. Dunn's test with Bonferroni adjustment was performed for post-hoc comparisons of days to negativization. Secondly, a negative binomial regression adjusted for age, sex, number of comorbidities, immunosuppression, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status was implemented. RESULTS: Data from 428 patients receiving early treatments were collected. The majority were treated with Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir and were affected by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection with BA.2 sublineage. The median length time to SARS-CoV-2 nasal swab negativization was 9 days [IQR 7-13 days]. We found that Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir determined a significant decrease of the length time to SARS-CoV-2 nasal swab negativization compared to mAbs (p = 0.003), but not compared to Remdesivir (p = 0.147) and Molnupiravir (p = 0.156). CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the importance of promptly treating high-risk COVID-19 patients with Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir, as it also contributes to achieving a faster time to negative SARS-CoV-2 nasal swabs.

The Defenders of the Alveolus Succumb in COVID-19 Pneumonia to SARS-CoV-2 and Necroptosis, Pyroptosis, and PANoptosis.

Alveolar type II (ATII) pneumocytes as defenders of the alveolus are critical to repairing lung injury. We investigated the ATII reparative response in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia, because the initial proliferation of ATII cells in this reparative process should provide large numbers of target cells to amplify severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus production and cytopathological effects to compromise lung repair. We show that both infected and uninfected ATII cells succumb to tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF)-induced necroptosis, Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK)-induced pyroptosis, and a new PANoptotic hybrid form of inflammatory cell death mediated by a PANoptosomal latticework that generates distinctive COVID-19 pathologies in contiguous ATII cells. Identifying TNF and BTK as the initiators of programmed cell death and SARS-CoV-2 cytopathic effects provides a rationale for early antiviral treatment combined with inhibitors of TNF and BTK to preserve ATII cell populations, reduce programmed cell death and associated hyperinflammation, and restore functioning alveoli in COVID-19 pneumonia.

Epidemic history and evolution of an emerging threat of international concern, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

This comprehensive review focuses on the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its impact as the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic. Its objective is to provide a cohesive overview of the epidemic history and evolutionary aspects of the virus, with a particular emphasis on its emergence, global spread, and implications for public health. The review delves into the timelines and key milestones of SARS-CoV-2's epidemiological progression, shedding light on the challenges encountered during early containment efforts and subsequent waves of transmission. Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of the virus is crucial in monitoring its potential for adaptation and future outbreaks. Genetic characterization of SARS-CoV-2 is discussed, with a focus on the emergence of new variants and their implications for transmissibility, severity, and immune evasion. The review highlights the important role of genomic surveillance in tracking viral mutations linked to establishing public health interventions. By analyzing the origins, global spread, and genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2, valuable insights can be gained for the development of effective control measures, improvement of pandemic preparedness, and addressing future emerging infectious diseases of international concern.

Genomic epidemiology of the main SARS-CoV-2 variants in Italy between summer 2020 and winter 2021.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has shown a great genomic variability, resulting in the continuous emergence of new variants that has made their global monitoring and study a priority. This work aimed to study the genomic heterogeneity, the temporal origin, the rate of viral evolution and the population dynamics of the main circulating variants (20E.EU1, Alpha and Delta) in Italy, in August 2020-January 2022 period. For phylogenetic analyses, three datasets were set up, each for a different main lineage/variant circulating in Italy in that time including other Italian and International sequences of the same lineage/variant, available in GISAID sampled in the same times. The international dataset showed 26 (23% Italians, 23% singleton, 54% mixed), 40 (60% mixed, 37.5% Italians, 1 singleton) and 42 (85.7% mixed, 9.5% singleton, 4.8% Italians) clusters with at least one Italian sequence, in 20E.EU1  clade, Alpha and Delta variants, respectively. The estimation of tMRCAs in the Italian clusters (including >70% of genomes from Italy) showed that in all the lineage/variant, the earliest clusters were the largest in size and the most persistent in time and frequently mixed. Isolates from the major Italian Islands tended to segregate in clusters more frequently than those from other part of Italy. The study of infection dynamics showed a positive correlation between the trend in the effective number of infections estimated by BSP model and the Re curves estimated by birth-death skyline plot. The present work highlighted different evolutionary dynamics of studied lineages with high concordance between epidemiological parameters estimation and phylodynamic trends suggesting that the mechanism of replacement of the SARS-CoV-2 variants must be related to a complex of factors involving the transmissibility, as well as the implementation of control measures, and the level of cross-immunization within the population.

Evaluation of residual humoral immune response against SARS-CoV-2 by a surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT) 9 months after BNT162b2 primary vaccination.

The humoral response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination has shown to be temporary, although may be more prolonged in vaccinated individuals with a history of natural infection. We aimed to study the residual humoral response and the correlation between anti-Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) IgG levels and antibody neutralizing capacity in a population of health care workers (HCWs) after 9 months from COVID-19 vaccination. In this cross-sectional study, plasma samples were screened for anti-RBD IgG using a quantitative method. The neutralizing capacity for each sample was estimated by means of a surrogate virus neutralizing test (sVNT) and results expressed as the percentage of inhibition (%IH) of the interaction between RBD and the angiotensin-converting enzyme. Samples of 274 HCWs (227 SARS-CoV-2 naïve and 47 SARS-CoV-2 experienced) were tested. The median level of anti-RBD IgG was significantly higher in SARS-CoV-2 experienced than in naïve HCWs: 2673.2 AU/mL versus 610.9 AU/mL, respectively (p <0.001). Samples of SARS-CoV-2 experienced subjects also showed higher neutralizing capacity as compared to naïve subjects: median %IH = 81.20% versus 38.55%, respectively; p <0.001. A quantitative correlation between anti-RBD Ab and inhibition activity levels was observed (Spearman's rho = 0.89, p <0.001): the optimal cut-off correlating with high neutralization was estimated to be 1236.1 AU/mL (sensitivity 96.8%, specificity 91.9%; AUC 0.979). Anti-SARS-CoV-2 hybrid immunity elicited by a combination of vaccination and infection confers higher anti-RBD IgG levels and higher neutralizing capacity than vaccination alone, likely providing better protection against COVID-19.

Genomic epidemiology and phylogenetics applied to the study of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

The study of characteristics, prevalence and patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections is significant to monitor and define the status of the pandemic, helping to design and evaluate control strategies. In this setting, the continuous emergence of new variants and their dynamic of replacement underline the importance of implementing genomic epidemiology and phylogenetic methods for the molecular monitoring and surveillance of this new virus. The current profile of the pandemic can change rapidly when new variants emerge and spread, impacting epidemiology and public health in terms of prevention and treatment and making it necessary to develop new molecules and formulate vaccines. In this paper, we reviewed and synthesized the main studies on molecular genomics and phylogeny of SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic, and highlighted their contributions to our understanding of this new emergent pathogen.

Sero-survey on long-term care facility residents reveals increased risk of sub-optimal antibody response to BNT162b2: implications for breakthrough prevention.

BACKGROUND: The impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) has been dramatic on global scale as older age and comorbidities pose an increased risk of severe disease and death. METHODS: Aim of this study was to evaluate SARS-CoV-2 Spike-specific IgG (S-IgG) antibody titers in 478 residents and 649 health care workers of a large Italian long-term care facility two months after complete vaccination with BNT162b2. Associations among resident-related factors and predictors of humoral response were investigated. RESULTS: By stratifying levels of humoral responses, we found that 62.1%, 21.6%, 12.1% and 4.2% of residents had high (>1,000 BAU/ml), medium (101-1,000), low (1-100) and null (<1 BAU/mL) S-IgG titers, respectively. Residents with documented previous COVID-19 and those with SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid-specific IgG (N-IgG) positive serology showed higher level of serological response, while significant associations were observed for cancer with suboptimal response (p = 0.005) and the administration of corticosteroid for suboptimal response (p = 0.028) and a null one (p = 0.039). According to multivariate logistic regression, predictors of an increased risk of null response were advanced age (Odd ratio, OR: 2.630; Confidence interval, CI: 1.13-6.14; p = 0.025), corticosteroid therapy (OR: 4.964; CI: 1.06-23.52; p = 0.042) and diabetes mellitus (OR:3.415; CI:1.08-10.8; p = 0.037). In contrast, previous diagnosis of COVID-19 was strongly associated with a reduced risk of null response to vaccination (OR:0.126; CI:0.02-0.23; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies in elderly individuals should be consider when deciding the need of a third dose of vaccine for prevention of reinfections in LTCFs despite the maintenance of barrier measures.

How Long Can a Dead Body Remain Infectious?: Postmortem Nasopharyngeal Swabs and SARS-CoV-2 Culture in a Corpse Over an 87-Day Period.

ABSTRACT: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic involved several changes and difficulties in the work of forensic pathologists. Postmortem nasopharyngeal swabs for the diagnosis of the SARS-CoV-2 infection are recommended before an autopsy examination by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Autopsy examinations must not be performed for SARS-CoV-2 infection cases when airborne infection isolation rooms or other suitable spaces are unavailable. However, it has not yet been reported whether the presence of SARS-CoV-2 at a low viral load may be enough to infect and disseminate the contagion.Here, we report the case of a 67-year-old man found dead at home on November 9, 2020, and transferred immediately after to the Genova District Mortuary. As the first postmortem molecular nasopharyngeal swab resulted positive, a weekly sampling was carried until February 4, 2021. All the molecular tests were positive for SARS-CoV-2, including the last swab performed 87 days after the arrival of the corpse at the morgue. Virus isolation conducted on VERO E6 cells revealed no cytopathic effect indicating no viral replication as early as 18 days after the corpse's arrival at the morgue and until January 2021.Our findings suggest that the presence of the genome of SARS-CoV-2 at low viral load should not be considered a sign of an active infection but a trace of a remaining viral genome from a previous infection. Then, if the virus shows no replication activity, its molecular detection should not constitute a threat to public health. Further studies are required to establish the infection's potential and its correlation with viral load.

Performance of the COVID19SEROSpeed IgM/IgG Rapid Test, an Immunochromatographic Assay for the Diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: a Multicenter European Study.

This study assessed the diagnostic performance of the new COVID19SEROSpeed IgM/IgG rapid test (BioSpeedia, a spinoff of the Pasteur Institute of Paris) for the detection of antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in comparison to other commercial antibody assays through a large cross-European investigation. The clinical specificity was assessed on 215 prepandemic sera (including some from patients with viral infections or autoimmune disorders). The clinical sensitivity was evaluated on 710 sera from 564 patients whose SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR) and whose antibody response was compared to that measured by five other commercial tests. The kinetics of the antibody response were also analyzed in seven symptomatic patients. The specificity of the test (BioS) on prepandemic specimens was 98.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 96.2% to 99.4%). When tested on the 710 pandemic specimens, BioS showed an overall clinical sensitivity of 86.0% (95% CI, 0.83 to 0.89), with good concordance with the Euroimmun assay (overall concordance of 0.91; Cohen's kappa coefficient of 0.62). Due in part to simultaneous detection of IgM and IgG for both S1 and N proteins, BioS exhibited the highest positive percent agreement at ≥11 days post-symptom onset (PSO). In conclusion, the BioS IgM/IgG rapid test was highly specific and demonstrated a higher positive percentage of agreement than all the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay/chemiluminescence immunoassay (ELISA/CLIA) commercial tests considered in this study. Moreover, by detecting the presence of antibodies prior to 11 days PSO in 78.2% of the patients, the BioS test increased the efficiency of the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the early stages of the disease.

Circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in Italy, October 2020-March 2021.

A growing number of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants is being identified worldwide, potentially impacting the effectiveness of current vaccines. We report the data obtained in several Italian regions involved in the SARS-CoV-2 variant monitoring from the beginning of the epidemic and spanning the period from October 2020 to March 2021.

Dynamics of the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among healthcare workers at a COVID-19 referral hospital in Milan, Italy.

OBJECTIVES: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at high risk of developing SARS-CoV-2 infection. The aim of this single-centre prospective study was to evaluate the trend of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in HCWs working at the primary referral centre for infectious diseases and bioemergencies (eg, COVID-19) in Northern Italy and investigate the factors associated with seroconversion. METHODS: Six hundred and seventy-nine HCW volunteers were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies three times between 4 March and 27 May 2020 and completed a questionnaire covering COVID-19 exposure, symptoms and personal protective equipment (PPE) training and confidence at each time. RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence rose from 3/679 to 26/608 (adjusted prevalence: 0.5%, 95% CI 0.1 to 1.7% and 5.4%, 95% CI 3.6 to 7.9, respectively) between the first two time points and then stabilised, in line with the curve of the COVID-19 epidemic in Milan. From the first time point, 61.6% of the HCWs had received training in the use of PPE and 17 (61.5%) of those who proved to be seropositive reported symptoms compatible with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Contacts with ill relatives or friends and self-reported symptoms were independently associated with an increased likelihood of seroconversion (p<0.0001 for both), whereas there was no significant association with professional exposure. CONCLUSION: The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among the HCWs at our COVID-19 referral hospital was low at the time of the peak of the epidemic. The seroconversions were mainly attributable to extrahospital contacts, probably because the hospital readily adopted effective infection control measures. The relatively high number of asymptomatic seropositive HCWs highlights the need to promptly identify and isolate potentially infectious HCWs.

Sofosbuvir Selects for Drug-Resistant Amino Acid Variants in the Zika Virus RNA-Dependent RNA-Polymerase Complex In Vitro.

The nucleotide analog sofosbuvir, licensed for the treatment of hepatitis C, recently revealed activity against the Zika virus (ZIKV) in vitro and in animal models. However, the ZIKV genetic barrier to sofosbuvir has not yet been characterized. In this study, in vitro selection experiments were performed in infected human hepatoma cell lines. Increasing drug pressure significantly delayed viral breakthrough (p = 0.029). A double mutant in the NS5 gene (V360L/V607I) emerged in 3 independent experiments at 40-80 µM sofosbuvir resulting in a 3.9 ± 0.9-fold half- maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) shift with respect to the wild type (WT) virus. A triple mutant (C269Y/V360L/V607I), detected in one experiment at 80 µM, conferred a 6.8-fold IC50 shift with respect to the WT. Molecular dynamics simulations confirmed that the double mutant V360L/V607I impacts the binding mode of sofosbuvir, supporting its role in sofosbuvir resistance. Due to the distance from the catalytic site and to the lack of reliable structural data, the contribution of C269Y was not investigated in silico. By a combination of sequence analysis, phenotypic susceptibility testing, and molecular modeling, we characterized a double ZIKV NS5 mutant with decreased sofosbuvir susceptibility. These data add important information to the profile of sofosbuvir as a possible lead for anti-ZIKV drug development.

Early phylogenetic estimate of the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2.

To reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of the 2019 novel-coronavirus recently causing an outbreak in Wuhan, China, 52 SARS-CoV-2 genomes available on 4 February 2020 at Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data were analyzed. The two models used to estimate the reproduction number (coalescent-based exponential growth and a birth-death skyline method) indicated an estimated mean evolutionary rate of 7.8 × 10-4 subs/site/year (range, 1.1 × 10-4 -15 × 10-4 ) and a mean tMRCA of the tree root of 73 days. The estimated R value was 2.6 (range, 2.1-5.1), and increased from 0.8 to 2.4 in December 2019. The estimated mean doubling time of the epidemic was between 3.6 and 4.1 days. This study proves the usefulness of phylogeny in supporting the surveillance of emerging new infections even as the epidemic is growing.

Genomic characterization and phylogenetic analysis of SARS-COV-2 in Italy.

This report describes the isolation, molecular characterization, and phylogenetic analysis of the first three complete genomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) isolated from three patients involved in the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Lombardy, Italy. Early molecular epidemiological tracing suggests that SARS-CoV-2 was present in Italy weeks before the first reported cases of infection.

Contribution of transgender sex workers to the complexity of the HIV-1 epidemic in the metropolitan area of Milan.

OBJECTIVES: Transgender people are disproportionately affected by the HIV-1 epidemic. We evaluated the origin of HIV-1 variants carried by South American transgenders living in Milan by combining accurate phylogenetic methods and epidemiological data. METHODS: We collected 156 HIV-1 pol sequences obtained from transgender patients engaged in sex work (TSWs) followed between 1999 and 2015 at L. Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted by HIV-TRACE, MrBayes, MacClade and Beast programs. Reference sequences were retrieved from Los Alamos and local databases. Last negative testing or proxy data from clinical records of infected individuals were used to investigate the country of infection. RESULTS: Among South American TSWs, the most represented HIV-1 subtypes were B (70.5%), F1 (12.8%) and C (4.4%). Gene flow migrations of B subtype indicated significant fluxes from TSWs to Italians (21.3%) belonging to all risk groups (26.4% to heterosexuals (HEs), 18.9% to men who have sex with men (MSM), 15.1% to injecting drug users). The largest proportion of bidirectional fluxes were observed between Italians and TSWs (24.6%). For F1 subtype, bidirectional viral fluxes involved TSWs and Italians (7.1% and 14.3%), and a similar proportion of fluxes linked TSWs and Italian HEs or MSM (both 15.8%). Significant fluxes were detected from Italians to TSWs for subtype C involving both MSM (30%) and HEs (40%). Country of HIV-1 acquisition was identified for 72 subjects; overall, the largest proportion of patients with B subtype (73.5%) acquired HIV-1 infection in South America. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that South American transgenders largely contribute to the heterogeneity of HIV-1 variants in our country. The high number of clusters based on all subtypes indicated numerous transmission chains in which TSWs were constantly intermixed with HEs and MSM. Our results strongly advocate interventions to facilitate prevention, diagnosis and HIV-1 care continuum among transgender people.

HIV-1 recombinant forms in immigrants regularly residing in Milan, northern Italy.

To assess the HIV -1subtypes distribution in HIV-1 positive migrants living in Milan we studied 77 HIV-1 patients followed at the San Raffaele Hospital of Milan. Twenty subjects were born in Europe, 43 in the Americas, 10 in Africa and 4 in Asia. Unsafe heterosexual activity prevailed in migrants born in Africa and male homosexuality in those born in European, American and Asian countries (p = 0.05). The phylogeny showed that 38/77 (49.3%) subjects carried HIV-B subtype while the remaining strains were classified as not pure HIV-1 B subtypes 13/77 (16.9%) or recombinant forms 26/77 (33.8%). Female gender more frequently showed HIV-1 non-B strains and rarely HIV-1 B subtypes (12/39, 30.8% vs. 3/38, 7.9%, p = 0.02). Transmitted drug resistance was identified in 10/77 (13%) patients predominately with B subtype. Our data underscore a large heterogeneity in HIV-1 subtypes and a large proportion of recombinant forms.

The phylogenetic approach for viral infectious disease evolution and epidemiology: An updating review.

In the last decade, the phylogenetic approach is recurrent in molecular evolutionary analysis. On 12 May, 2019, about 2 296 213 papers are found, but typing "phylogeny" or "epidemiology AND phylogeny" only 199 804 and 20 133 are retrieved, respectively. Molecular epidemiology in infectious diseases is widely used to define the source of infection as so as the ancestral relationships of individuals sampled from a population. Coalescent theory and phylogeographic analysis have had scientific application in several, recent pandemic events, and nosocomial outbreaks. Hepatitis viruses and immunodeficiency virus (human immunodeficiency virus) have been largely studied. Phylogenetic analysis has been recently applied on Polyomaviruses so as in the more recent outbreaks due to different arboviruses type as Zika and chikungunya viruses discovering the source of infection and the geographic spread. Data on sequences isolated by the microorganism are essential to apply the phylogenetic tools and research in the field of infectious disease phylodinamics is growing up. There is the need to apply molecular phylogenetic and evolutionary methods in areas out of infectious diseases, as translational genomics and personalized medicine. Lastly, the application of these tools in vaccine strategy so as in antibiotic and antiviral researchers are encouraged.

Bayesian reconstruction of the evolutionary history and cross-species transition of variola virus and orthopoxviruses.

Variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox, is an exclusively human virus belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus, which includes many other viral species covering a wide range of mammal hosts, such as vaccinia, cowpox, camelpox, taterapox, ectromelia, and monkeypox virus. The tempo and mode of evolution of Orthopoxviruses were reconstructed using a Bayesian phylodynamic framework by analysing 80 hemagglutinin sequences retrieved from public databases. Bayesian phylogeography was used to estimate their putative ancestral hosts. In order to estimate the substitution rate, the tree including all of the available Orthopoxviruses was calibrated using historical references dating the South American variola minor clade (alastrim) to between the XVI and XIX century. The mean substitution rate determined by the analysis was 6.5 × 10-6 substitutions/site/year. Based on this evolutionary estimate, the time of the most recent common ancestor of the genus Orthopoxvirus was placed at about 10 000 years before the present. Cowpox virus was the species closest to the root of the phylogenetic tree. The root of VARV circulating in the XX century was estimated to be about 700 years ago, corresponding to about 1300 AD. The divergence between West African and South American VARV went back about 500 years ago (falling approximately in the XVI century). A rodent species is the most probable ancestral host from which the ancestors of all the known Orthopoxviruses were transmitted to the other mammal host species, and each of these species represented a dead-end for each new poxvirus species, without any further inter-specific spread.

What is changed in HBV molecular epidemiology in Italy?

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection represents the most common cause of chronic liver diseases worldwide. Consequently, to the introduction of the universal HBV vaccination program, the prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen was markedly reduced and less than 1% of the population of Western Europe and North America is chronically infected. To date, despite great advances in therapeutics, HBV chronic infection is considered an incurable disease. Ten hepatitis B virus genotypes (A-J) and several subgenotypes have been identified so far, based on intergroup divergences of 8% and 4%, respectively, in the complete viral genome. HBV-D genotype has been found throughout the world, with highest prevalence in the Mediterranean area. In the present review, several articles concerning HBV epidemiology, and phylogeny in Italy have been analyzed, mainly focusing on the changes occurred in the last decade.

Genotype I hepatitis A virus introduction in Italy: Bayesian phylogenetic analysis to date different epidemics.

Despite a significant decrease in acute hepatitis A in the last 2 decades in Italy, outbreaks were observed occurring mostly in southern Italy. In this study, Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was used to analyze the origin of these epidemics. With this aim, 5 different data sets of hepatitis A virus sequences were built to perform genotyping by the neighbor-joining method to estimate the evolutionary rates by using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and to investigate the demographic history by independent Markov chain Monte Carlo runs enforcing both a strict and relaxed clock. The estimated mean value of the evolutionary rate, representing Ia and Ib strains, was 1.21 × 10-3 and 2.0 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year, respectively. The Bayesian maximum clade credibility tree of hepatitis A virus (HAV) Ia and Ib strains showed that Italian sequences mostly formed separate clusters. The root of the time for the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) for HAV Ia and Ib strains dated back to 1981 and to 1988, respectively, showing in both cases different epidemic entrances. Phylodynamic analysis showed that genotype Ia increased in 1997, when the Apulia epidemic started, then suffered a bottleneck, probably consequent to vaccination and to the herd immunity, followed by a new increase in virus population in the years 2013-2014 consequent to the epidemic caused by the ingestion of mixed frozen berries. A similar trend without an evident bottleneck was observed also in the case of genotype Ib. In conclusion, the Bayesian phylogenetic analysis represents a good tool to measure the effectiveness of the public health plans used for HAV control.