Vaccine escape, increased breakthrough and reinfection in infliximab-treated patients with IBD during the Omicron wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: Antitumour necrosis factor (TNF) drugs impair serological responses following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. We sought to assess if a third dose of a messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccine substantially boosted anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses and protective immunity in infliximab-treated patients with IBD. DESIGN: Third dose vaccine induced anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike (anti-S) receptor-binding domain (RBD) antibody responses, breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection, reinfection and persistent oropharyngeal carriage in patients with IBD treated with infliximab were compared with a reference cohort treated with vedolizumab from the impaCt of bioLogic therApy on saRs-cov-2 Infection and immuniTY (CLARITY) IBD study. RESULTS: Geometric mean (SD) anti-S RBD antibody concentrations increased in both groups following a third dose of an mRNA-based vaccine. However, concentrations were lower in patients treated with infliximab than vedolizumab, irrespective of whether their first two primary vaccine doses were ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (1856 U/mL (5.2) vs 10 728 U/mL (3.1), p<0.0001) or BNT162b2 vaccines (2164 U/mL (4.1) vs 15 116 U/mL (3.4), p<0.0001). However, no differences in anti-S RBD antibody concentrations were seen following third and fourth doses of an mRNA-based vaccine, irrespective of the combination of primary vaccinations received. Post-third dose, anti-S RBD antibody half-life estimates were shorter in infliximab-treated than vedolizumab-treated patients (37.0 days (95% CI 35.6 to 38.6) vs 52.0 days (95% CI 49.0 to 55.4), p<0.0001).Compared with vedolizumab-treated, infliximab-treated patients were more likely to experience SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection (HR 2.23 (95% CI 1.46 to 3.38), p=0.00018) and reinfection (HR 2.10 (95% CI 1.31 to 3.35), p=0.0019), but this effect was uncoupled from third vaccine dose anti-S RBD antibody concentrations. Reinfection occurred predominantly during the Omicron wave and was predicted by SARS-CoV-2 antinucleocapsid concentrations after the initial infection. We did not observe persistent oropharyngeal carriage of SARS-CoV-2. Hospitalisations and deaths were uncommon in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Following a third dose of an mRNA-based vaccine, infliximab was associated with attenuated serological responses and more SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection and reinfection which were not predicted by the magnitude of anti-S RBD responses, indicative of vaccine escape by the Omicron variant. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN45176516.

Disease Monitoring in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Evolving Principles and Possibilities.

Inflammatory bowel disease is a progressive and debilitating condition. Early and effective treatment using a treat-to-target approach is key to improving patient outcomes. Therefore, proactive monitoring is essential to ensure that treatment strategies are working and targets are being met. In this review we discuss the current monitoring tools available to us and how they can be used. We also discuss the importance of monitoring during key phases of the disease and propose an optimum treat-to-target monitoring strategy for Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Regarding the advent of new technology, we discuss how this may improve our monitoring capabilities and how we envisage future monitoring strategies of inflammatory bowel diseases.

Longitudinal Fecal Calprotectin Profiles Characterize Disease Course Heterogeneity in Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The progressive nature of Crohn's disease is highly variable and hard to predict. In addition, symptoms correlate poorly with mucosal inflammation. There is therefore an urgent need to better characterize the heterogeneity of disease trajectories in Crohn's disease by utilizing objective markers of inflammation. We aimed to better understand this heterogeneity by clustering Crohn's disease patients with similar longitudinal fecal calprotectin profiles. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study at the Edinburgh IBD Unit, a tertiary referral center, and used latent class mixed models to cluster Crohn's disease subjects using fecal calprotectin observed within 5 years of diagnosis. Information criteria, alluvial plots, and cluster trajectories were used to decide the optimal number of clusters. Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, and analysis of variance were used to test for associations with variables commonly assessed at diagnosis. RESULTS: Our study cohort comprised 356 patients with newly diagnosed Crohn's disease and 2856 fecal calprotectin measurements taken within 5 years of diagnosis (median 7 per subject). Four distinct clusters were identified by characteristic calprotectin profiles: a cluster with consistently high fecal calprotectin and 3 clusters characterized by different downward longitudinal trends. Cluster membership was significantly associated with smoking (P = .015), upper gastrointestinal involvement (P < .001), and early biologic therapy (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis demonstrates a novel approach to characterizing the heterogeneity of Crohn's disease by using fecal calprotectin. The group profiles do not simply reflect different treatment regimens and do not mirror classical disease progression endpoints.

Fine-mapping inflammatory bowel disease loci to single-variant resolution.

Inflammatory bowel diseases are chronic gastrointestinal inflammatory disorders that affect millions of people worldwide. Genome-wide association studies have identified 200 inflammatory bowel disease-associated loci, but few have been conclusively resolved to specific functional variants. Here we report fine-mapping of 94 inflammatory bowel disease loci using high-density genotyping in 67,852 individuals. We pinpoint 18 associations to a single causal variant with greater than 95% certainty, and an additional 27 associations to a single variant with greater than 50% certainty. These 45 variants are significantly enriched for protein-coding changes (n = 13), direct disruption of transcription-factor binding sites (n = 3), and tissue-specific epigenetic marks (n = 10), with the last category showing enrichment in specific immune cells among associations stronger in Crohn's disease and in gut mucosa among associations stronger in ulcerative colitis. The results of this study suggest that high-resolution fine-mapping in large samples can convert many discoveries from genome-wide association studies into statistically convincing causal variants, providing a powerful substrate for experimental elucidation of disease mechanisms.

Prediction of Relapse After Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Cessation in Crohn's Disease: Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis of 1317 Patients From 14 Studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tools for stratification of relapse risk of Crohn's disease (CD) after anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy cessation are needed. We aimed to validate a previously developed prediction model from the diSconTinuation in CrOhn's disease patients in stable Remission on combined therapy with Immunosuppressants (STORI) trial, and to develop an updated model. METHODS: Cohort studies were selected that reported on anti-TNF cessation in 30 or more CD patients in remission. Individual participant data were requested for luminal CD patients and anti-TNF treatment duration of 6 months or longer. The discriminative ability (concordance-statistic [C-statistic]) and calibration (agreement between observed and predicted risks) were explored for the STORI model. Next, an updated prognostic model was constructed, with performance assessment by cross-validation. RESULTS: This individual participant data meta-analysis included 1317 patients from 14 studies in 11 countries. Relapses after anti-TNF cessation occurred in 632 of 1317 patients after a median of 13 months. The pooled 1-year relapse rate was 38%. The STORI prediction model showed poor discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.51). The updated model reached a moderate discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.59), and included clinical symptoms at cessation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4), younger age at diagnosis (HR, 1.5 for A1 (age at diagnosis ≤16 years) vs A2 (age at diagnosis 17 - 40 years); 95% CI, 1.11-1.89), no concomitant immunosuppressants (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.18-172), smoking (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.15-1.67), second line anti-TNF (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69), upper gastrointestinal tract involvement (HR, 1.3 for L4 vs non-L4; 95% CI, 0.96-1.79), adalimumab (HR, 1.22 vs infliximab; 95% CI, 0.99-1.50), age at cessation (HR, 1.2 per 10 years younger; 95% CI, 1-1.33), C-reactive protein (HR, 1.04 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.00-1.08), and longer disease duration (HR, 1.07 per 5 years; 95% CI, 0.98-1.17). In subanalysis, the discriminative ability of the model improved by adding fecal calprotectin (C-statistic, 0.63). CONCLUSIONS: This updated prediction model showed a reasonable discriminative ability, exceeding the performance of a previously published model. It might be useful to guide clinical decisions on anti-TNF therapy cessation in CD patients after further validation.

The Global Incidence of Peptic Ulcer Disease Is Decreasing Since the Turn of the 21st Century: A Study of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD).

INTRODUCTION: Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) is a common cause of hospitalization worldwide. We assessed temporal trends in hospitalization for PUD in 36 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries since the turn of the 21st century. METHODS: The OECD database contains data on PUD-related hospital discharges and mortality for 36 countries between 2000 and 2019. Hospitalization rates for PUD were expressed as annual rates per 100,000 persons. Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each country, which were pooled using meta-analyses. The incidence of PUD was forecasted to 2021 using autoregressive integrated moving average and Poisson regression models. RESULTS: The overall median hospitalization rate was 42.4 with an interquartile range of 29.7-60.6 per 100,000 person-years. On average, hospitalization rates (AAPC = -3.9%; 95% CI: -4.4, -3.3) and morality rates (AAPC = -4.7%; 95% CI: -5.6, -3.8) for PUD have decreased from 2000 to 2019 globally. The forecasted incidence of PUD hospitalizations in 2021 ranged from 3.5 per 100,000 in Mexico to 92.1 per 100,000 in Lithuania. Across 36 countries in the OECD, 329,000 people are estimated to be hospitalized for PUD in 2021. DISCUSSION: PUD remains an important cause of hospitalization worldwide. Reassuringly, hospitalizations and mortality for PUD have consistently been falling in OECD countries in North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. Identifying underlying factors driving these trends is essential to sustaining this downward momentum.

Infliximab is associated with attenuated immunogenicity to BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in patients with IBD.

OBJECTIVE: Delayed second dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccination trades maximal effectiveness for a lower level of immunity across more of the population. We investigated whether patients with inflammatory bowel disease treated with infliximab have attenuated serological responses to a single dose of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. DESIGN: Antibody responses and seroconversion rates in infliximab-treated patients (n=865) were compared with a cohort treated with vedolizumab (n=428), a gut-selective anti-integrin α4ß7 monoclonal antibody. Our primary outcome was anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) antibody concentrations, measured using the Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) antibody assay 3-10 weeks after vaccination, in patients without evidence of prior infection. Secondary outcomes were seroconversion rates (defined by a cut-off of 15 U/mL), and antibody responses following past infection or a second dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine. RESULTS: Geometric mean (SD) anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody concentrations were lower in patients treated with infliximab than vedolizumab, following BNT162b2 (6.0 U/mL (5.9) vs 28.8 U/mL (5.4) p<0.0001) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (4.7 U/mL (4.9)) vs 13.8 U/mL (5.9) p<0.0001) vaccines. In our multivariable models, antibody concentrations were lower in infliximab-treated compared with vedolizumab-treated patients who received the BNT162b2 (fold change (FC) 0.29 (95% CI 0.21 to 0.40), p<0.0001) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (FC 0.39 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.51), p<0.0001) vaccines. In both models, age ≥60 years, immunomodulator use, Crohn's disease and smoking were associated with lower, while non-white ethnicity was associated with higher, anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody concentrations. Seroconversion rates after a single dose of either vaccine were higher in patients with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and after two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine. CONCLUSION: Infliximab is associated with attenuated immunogenicity to a single dose of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Vaccination after SARS-CoV-2 infection, or a second dose of vaccine, led to seroconversion in most patients. Delayed second dosing should be avoided in patients treated with infliximab. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN45176516.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses are attenuated in patients with IBD treated with infliximab.

OBJECTIVE: Antitumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) drugs impair protective immunity following pneumococcal, influenza and viral hepatitis vaccination and increase the risk of serious respiratory infections. We sought to determine whether infliximab-treated patients with IBD have attenuated serological responses to SARS-CoV-2 infections. DESIGN: Antibody responses in participants treated with infliximab were compared with a reference cohort treated with vedolizumab, a gut-selective anti-integrin α4ß7 monoclonal antibody that is not associated with impaired vaccine responses or increased susceptibility to systemic infections. 6935 patients were recruited from 92 UK hospitals between 22 September and 23 December 2020. RESULTS: Rates of symptomatic and proven SARS-CoV-2 infection were similar between groups. Seroprevalence was lower in infliximab-treated than vedolizumab-treated patients (3.4% (161/4685) vs 6.0% (134/2250), p<0.0001). Multivariable logistic regression analyses confirmed that infliximab (vs vedolizumab; OR 0.66 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.87), p=0.0027) and immunomodulator use (OR 0.70 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.92), p=0.012) were independently associated with lower seropositivity. In patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, seroconversion was observed in fewer infliximab-treated than vedolizumab-treated patients (48% (39/81) vs 83% (30/36), p=0.00044) and the magnitude of anti-SARS-CoV-2 reactivity was lower (median 0.8 cut-off index (0.2-5.6) vs 37.0 (15.2-76.1), p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Infliximab is associated with attenuated serological responses to SARS-CoV-2 that were further blunted by immunomodulators used as concomitant therapy. Impaired serological responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection might have important implications for global public health policy and individual anti-TNF-treated patients. Serological testing and virus surveillance should be considered to detect suboptimal vaccine responses, persistent infection and viral evolution to inform public health policy. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN45176516.

Normalization of Fecal Calprotectin Within 12 Months of Diagnosis Is Associated With Reduced Risk of Disease Progression in Patients With Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The level of fecal calprotectin (FC) correlates with endoscopic evidence of inflammation in Crohn's disease (CD). A treat-to-target algorithm for patients with CD, that incorporates FC, outperforms a treatment strategy based on symptoms alone in the induction of mucosal healing at 12 months. We investigated whether normalization of FC within 12 months of diagnosis of CD is associated with a reduction in disease progression. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study at a tertiary IBD centre in the United Kingdom. We identified all incident cases of CD diagnosed from 2005 through 2017. Patients with a FC measurement ≥250 µg/g at diagnosis who also had at least 1 follow-up FC measurement within the first 12 months of diagnosis and >12 months of follow up were included. The last FC measurement within 12 months of diagnosis was used to determine normalization (cut-off <250 µg/g). The primary endpoint was time to first disease progression (composite of progression in Montreal disease behavior B1 to B2/3, B2 to B3, or new perianal disease; CD-related surgery; or CD-related hospitalization). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine independent factors associated with time to first disease progression. RESULTS: A total of 375 patients out of 1389 incident cases were included, with a median follow up of 5.3 years (interquartile range, 3.1-7.4 years). Normalization of FC within 12 months of diagnosis was confirmed in 43.5% of patients. Patients with normalized levels of FC had a significantly lower risk of composite disease progression (hazard ratio [HR], 0.36; 95% CI, 0.24-0.53; P < .001). They also had a lower risk of reaching any of the separate progression endpoints (progression in Montreal behavior or new perianal disease HR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.11-0.45; P < .001; hospitalization HR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.21-0.53; P <.001; surgery HR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.19-0.78; P = .008) CONCLUSIONS: Normalization of FC within 12 months of diagnosis is associated with a reduced risk of progression of CD.

HLA-DQA1*05 Carriage Associated With Development of Anti-Drug Antibodies to Infliximab and Adalimumab in Patients With Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapies are the most widely used biologic drugs for treating immune-mediated diseases, but repeated administration can induce the formation of anti-drug antibodies. The ability to identify patients at increased risk for development of anti-drug antibodies would facilitate selection of therapy and use of preventative strategies. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association study to identify variants associated with time to development of anti-drug antibodies in a discovery cohort of 1240 biologic-naïve patients with Crohn's disease starting infliximab or adalimumab therapy. Immunogenicity was defined as an anti-drug antibody titer ≥10 AU/mL using a drug-tolerant enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Significant association signals were confirmed in a replication cohort of 178 patients with inflammatory bowel disease. RESULTS: The HLA-DQA1*05 allele, carried by approximately 40% of Europeans, significantly increased the rate of immunogenicity (hazard ratio [HR], 1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60-2.25; P = 5.88 × 10-13). The highest rates of immunogenicity, 92% at 1 year, were observed in patients treated with infliximab monotherapy who carried HLA-DQA1*05; conversely the lowest rates of immunogenicity, 10% at 1 year, were observed in patients treated with adalimumab combination therapy who did not carry HLA-DQA1*05. We confirmed this finding in the replication cohort (HR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.35-2.98; P = 6.60 × 10-4). This association was consistent for patients treated with adalimumab (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.32-2.70) or infliximab (HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.57-2.33), and for patients treated with anti-TNF therapy alone (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.37-2.22) or in combination with an immunomodulator (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.57-2.58). CONCLUSIONS: In an observational study, we found a genome-wide significant association between HLA-DQA1*05 and the development of antibodies against anti-TNF agents. A randomized controlled biomarker trial is required to determine whether pretreatment testing for HLA-DQA1*05 improves patient outcomes by helping physicians select anti-TNF and combination therapies. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03088449.

Real-world effectiveness and safety of ustekinumab for the treatment of Crohn's disease: the Scottish ustekinumab cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Ustekinumab is a monoclonal antibody that targets interleukin-12/23. In Scotland, it was approved for the treatment of moderate to severe Crohn's disease in 2017. The objective of this study was to establish the real-world effectiveness and safety of ustekinumab in the treatment of Crohn's disease. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of patients receiving ustekinumab across eight Scottish National Health Service health boards between 2017 and 2019. Inclusion criteria included a diagnosis of Crohn's disease with symptoms attributed to active disease plus objective signs of inflammation at baseline (C-reactive protein ≥ 5 mg/L or fecal calprotectin ≥ 250 µg/g or inflammation on endoscopy/magnetic resonance imaging) and completion of induction plus at least one clinical follow-up at 8 weeks. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to establish 12-month cumulative rates of clinical remission, mucosal healing, deep remission, and perianal fistula response. Rates of serious adverse events were described quantitatively. RESULTS: Our cohort consisted of 216 patients (female sex, 37.9%; median age, 39.0 years, interquartile range [IQR] 28.8-51.8 years; disease duration, 9.9 years, IQR 6.0-16.5 years; prior biologic, 98.6%) with a median follow-up of 35.0 weeks (IQR 17.4-52.0 weeks). Twelve-month cumulative rates of clinical remission, mucosal healing, and deep remission (clinical remission plus mucosal healing) were 32.0%, 32.7%, and 19.3%, respectively. In patients with active perianal disease (n = 37), the 12-month cumulative perianal response rate was 53.1%. The serious adverse event rate was 13.6 per 100 patient-years of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Ustekinumab is a safe and effective treatment for the treatment of complex Crohn's disease.

Analysis of colectomy rates for ulcerative colitis in pre- and postbiological eras in Lothian, Scotland.

AIM: Biological treatment is effective in maintaining remission in ulcerative colitis (UC), although the effect on colectomy rates remains unclear. In the UK the use of antitumour necrosis factor and anti-α4ß7 treatments for maintenance therapy in UC was restricted until 2015. The aim of this study was to describe the impact that this change in the prescribing of biologicals had on colectomy rates for UC. METHOD: All patients (adult and paediatric) with a diagnosis of UC who received maintenance biological treatment and/or underwent a colectomy in Lothian, Scotland between 2005 and 2018 were identified. Linear and segmental regression analyses were used to identify the annual percentage change (APC) and temporal trends (statistical joinpoints) in biological prescription and colectomy rates. RESULTS: Rates of initiation of maintenance biological therapy increased from 0.05 per 100 UC patients in 2005 to 1.26 in 2018 (p < 0.001). Colectomy rates per 100 UC patients fell from 1.47 colectomies in 2005 to 0.44 in 2018 (p < 0.001). The APC for colectomy decreased by 4.1% per year between 2005 and 2014 and by 18.9% between 2014 and 2018. Temporal trend analysis (2005-2018) identified a significant joinpoint in colectomy rates in 2014 (p = 0.019). CONCLUSION: The use of maintenance biological therapy increased sharply following the change in guidance. This has been paralleled by a significant reduction in the rates of colectomy over the same time period.

Adaptations to the British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines on the management of acute severe UC in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: a RAND appropriateness panel.

OBJECTIVE: Management of acute severe UC (ASUC) during the novel COVID-19 pandemic presents significant dilemmas. We aimed to provide COVID-19-specific guidance using current British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) guidelines as a reference point. DESIGN: We convened a RAND appropriateness panel comprising 14 gastroenterologists and an IBD nurse consultant supplemented by surgical and COVID-19 experts. Panellists rated the appropriateness of interventions for ASUC in the context of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Median scores and disagreement index (DI) were calculated. Results were discussed at a moderated meeting prior to a second survey. RESULTS: Panellists recommended that patients with ASUC should be isolated throughout their hospital stay and should have a SARS-CoV-2 swab performed on admission. Patients with a positive swab should be discussed with COVID-19 specialists. As per BSG guidance, intravenous hydrocortisone was considered appropriate as initial management; only in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was its use deemed uncertain. In patients requiring rescue therapy, infliximab with continuing steroids was recommended. Delaying colectomy because of COVID-19 was deemed inappropriate. Steroid tapering as per BSG guidance was deemed appropriate for all patients apart from those with COVID-19 pneumonia in whom a 4-6 week taper was preferred. Post-ASUC maintenance therapy was dependent on SARS-CoV-2 status but, in general, biologics were more likely to be deemed appropriate than azathioprine or tofacitinib. Panellists deemed prophylactic anticoagulation postdischarge to be appropriate in patients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 swab. CONCLUSION: We have suggested COVID-19-specific adaptations to the BSG ASUC guideline using a RAND panel.

British Society of Gastroenterology guidance for management of inflammatory bowel disease during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic is putting unprecedented pressures on healthcare systems globally. Early insights have been made possible by rapid sharing of data from China and Italy. In the UK, we have rapidly mobilised inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) centres in order that preparations can be made to protect our patients and the clinical services they rely on. This is a novel coronavirus; much is unknown as to how it will affect people with IBD. We also lack information about the impact of different immunosuppressive medications. To address this uncertainty, the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) COVID-19 IBD Working Group has used the best available data and expert opinion to generate a risk grid that groups patients into highest, moderate and lowest risk categories. This grid allows patients to be instructed to follow the UK government's advice for shielding, stringent and standard advice regarding social distancing, respectively. Further considerations are given to service provision, medical and surgical therapy, endoscopy, imaging and clinical trials.

Paediatric Patients (Less Than Age of 17 Years) Account for Less Than 1.5% of All Prevalent Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cases.

The prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) continues to rise globally; however, the true proportion of paediatric IBD patients remains unknown. We conducted an all-age, multiparameter, population-based search using capture-recapture methodology to identify all IBD cases to August 31, 2018 within Lothian, a defined health board and the largest of the 3 within South-East Scotland. Individual case note validation was performed for all 24,601 possible IBD cases according to internationally recognised diagnostic and age criteria. Of 7035 confirmed point-prevalent patients, 560 were classified as A1 age phenotype at diagnosis, constituting just 8% of all cases. Ninety-nine patients were less than 17 years of age on August 31, 2018, constituting only 1.4% of all point-prevalent cases. These results demonstrate the true contemporary proportion of prevalent paediatric IBD patients is strikingly low, reflecting compounding prevalence in adult practice and the near-normal life expectancy of this chronic, incurable condition.

IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture-recapture methodology.

OBJECTIVE: IBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland. DESIGN: We conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997-2018), IBD pathology coding (1990-2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009-2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997-2018) to identify 'possible' IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028. RESULTS: In total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn's disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture-recapture methods identified an additional 427 'missed' cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a 'true' prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: We report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.

Association Between Level of Fecal Calprotectin and Progression of Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Mucosal healing is associated with improved outcomes in patients with Crohn's disease (CD), but assessment typically requires ileocolonoscopy. Calprotectin can be measured in fecal samples to determine luminal disease activity in place of endoscopy-this measurement is an important component of the treat-to-target strategy. We investigated whether levels of fecal calprotectin are associated with subsequent CD progression. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 918 patients with CD (4218 patient-years of follow-up evaluation; median, 50.6 mo; interquartile range [IQR], 32.8-76.0 mo) managed at a tertiary medical center in Edinburgh, United Kingdom, from 2003 through 2015. Patients were included if they had 1 or more fecal calprotectin measurements made 3 months or more after their diagnosis. We collected clinical data and fecal calprotectin measurements and analyzed these data to identify factors associated with a composite outcome of progression in Montreal behavior, hospitalization, and resection. RESULTS: An increased level of fecal calprotectin at the index visit was associated with subsequent progression of CD, independent of symptoms or disease location. The median level of fecal calprotectin at the index visit was 432 µg/g (IQR, 1365-998 µg/g) in patients who reached the composite end point vs 180 µg/g (IQR, 50-665 µg/g) in patients who did not. In multivariable analysis, a cut-off value of 115 µg/g calprotectin identified patients who met the end point with a hazard ratio of 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8-3.1; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective analysis of patients with CD, we found that measurements of fecal calprotectin made during routine monitoring can identify patients at risk for disease progression, independent of symptoms or disease location. It is therefore important to screen asymptomatic patients for mucosal inflammation and pursue complete resolution of inflammation.

Implementation of CT-P13 via a Managed Switch Programme in Crohn's Disease: 12-Month Real-World Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Switching from Remicade to CT-P13 allows for significant cost savings and has been shown to be non-inferior to continued therapy with Remicade for the treatment of Crohn's disease. AIM: The aim of this work was to prospectively evaluate clinical outcomes in a cohort of patients with Crohn's disease switching from Remicade to CT-P13. METHODS: A prospective service evaluation was performed. The Harvey-Bradshaw index, CRP, faecal calprotectin and serum for infliximab/antibody levels were collected prior to patients' final Remicade infusion and at 6 and 12 months after switching to CT-P13 as part of routine clinical care. All adverse events during follow-up were also recorded. RESULTS: One hundred and ten patients on Remicade switched to CT-P13. No significant difference was observed between the Harvey-Bradshaw Index (p = 0.07), CRP (p = 0.13), faecal calprotectin (p = 0.25) or trough infliximab levels (p = 0.47) comparing before and at 6 and 12 months after the switch to CT-P13. Seven patients developed new infliximab antibodies after switching from Remicade to CT-P13. The majority of patients remained on CT-P13 at 12 months (84.5%) and the rate of adverse events and serious adverse events was 53.8 and 13.5 per 100 patient-years of follow-up, respectively. Switching to CT-P13 resulted in a cost saving of approximately 46.4%. CONCLUSION: The transition to CT-P13 from Remicade for the treatment of Crohn's disease is safe and has no negative effect on clinical outcomes at 12 months.