Exploring ecosystem-based management in the North Atlantic.

The United States, the EU and Canada established a trilateral working group on the ecosystem approach to ocean health and stressors under the Atlantic Ocean Research Alliance. Recognizing the Atlantic Ocean as a shared resource and responsibility, the working group sought to advance understanding of the Atlantic Ocean and its dynamic systems to improve ocean health, enhance ocean stewardship and promote the sustainable use and management of its resources. This included consideration of multiple ocean-use sectors such as fishing, shipping, tourism and offshore energy. The working group met for 4 years and worked through eight steps that covered the development of common language as a basis for collaboration, challenges of stakeholder engagement, review of the governance mandates, exploring the links between sectors and ecosystems effects, identifying gaps in knowledge and uptake of science, identification of tools for ecosystem-based management, customary best practice for tool development and communication of key research priorities. The key findings were that ecosystem-based management enables new benefits and opportunities, and that we need to make the business case. Further findings were that adequate mandates and effective tools exist for ecosystem-based management, and that ecosystem-based management urgently requires integration of human dimensions, so we must diversify the conversation. In addition, it was found that stakeholders do not see their stake in ecosystem-based management, so greater engagement with stakeholders and targeting of ocean literacy is required and a sustainable future requires a sustained investment in ecosystem-based management, so long-term commitment is key.

Cumulative biomass curves describe past and present conditions of Large Marine Ecosystems.

Implementing the Ecosystem Approach in marine ecosystems is moving from preliminary steps-dedicated to defining the optimal features for indicators and developing efficient indicator frameworks-towards an operational phase where multisector marine management decisions are executed using this information. Within this operational context, emergent ecosystem properties are becoming quite promising as they have been demonstrated to be globally widespread and repeatable, and to be quite effective in detecting significant state variations of complex systems. Biomass accumulation across TLs (CumB-TL) combines two important emergent properties of an ecosystem (energy flow, in terms of transfer efficiency, and storage, expressed as biomass), both amenable to detecting rapid ecosystem change. However, for further application, it is crucial to understand which types of drivers an indicator is sensitive to and how robust it is in relation to modifications of the external conditions and/or the system state. Here we address some outstanding questions of these CumB-TL curves related to their sensitivity to various drivers by carrying out a global scale assessment (using data from 62 LMEs) over six decades (1950-2010). We confirm the consistency of the S-pattern across all the LMEs, independent from latitude, ecosystem, environmental conditions, and stress level. The dynamics of the curve shape showed a tendency to stretch (i.e. decrease of steepness), in the presence of external disturbance and conversely to increase in steepness and shift towards higher TL in the case of recovery from stressed conditions. Our results suggest the presence of three main types of ecosystem dynamics, those showing an almost continuous increase in ecological state over time, those showing a continuous decrease in ecological state over time, and finally those showing a mixed behaviour flipping between recovering and degrading phases. These robust patterns suggest that the CumB-TL curve approach has some useful properties for use in further advancing the implementation of the Ecosystem Approach, allowing us to detect the state of a given marine ecosystem based on the dynamics of its curve shape, by using readily available time series data. The value of being able to identify conditions that might require management actions is quite high and, in many respects, represents the main objective in the context of an Ecosystem Approach, with large applications for detecting and responding to global changes in marine ecosystems.

Consumption by marine mammals on the Northeast U.S. continental shelf.

The economic and ecological impacts of fish consumption by marine mammals, the associated interactions with commercial fish stocks, and the forage demands of these marine mammal populations are largely unknown. Consumption estimates are often either data deficient or not fully evaluated in a rigorous, quantitative manner. Although consumption estimates exist for the Northeast United States (NEUS) Large Marine Ecosystem, there is considerable uncertainty in those estimates. We examined consumption estimates for 12 marine mammal species inhabiting the regional ecosystem. We used sensitivity analyses to examine metabolically driven daily individual consumption rates, resulting in a suite of feasible parameter-pair ranges for each of three taxonomic groups: mysticetes, odontocetes, and pinnipeds. We expanded daily individual consumption to annual consumption based on abundance estimates of marine mammals found on the NEUS continental shelf coupled with estimates of annual residence time for each species. To examine consumptive removals for specific prey, diet compositions were summarized into major prey categories, and predatory removals by marine mammal species as well as for total marine mammal consumption were estimated for each prey taxa. Bounds on consumption estimates for each marine mammal species were determined using Monte Carlo resampling simulations. Our results suggest that consumption for these 12 marine mammal species combined may be similar in magnitude to commercial fishery landings for small pelagic and groundfish prey groups. Consumption by marine mammals warrants consideration both as a source of mortality in assessments of prey-stocks, and to determine marine mammal forage demands in ecosystem assessment models. The approach that we present represents a rigorous, quantitative method to scope the bounds of the biomass that marine mammals are expected to consume, and is appropriate for use in other ecosystems where the interaction between marine mammals and commercial fisheries is thought to be prominent.

Role of egg predation by haddock in the decline of an Atlantic herring population.

Theoretical studies suggest that the abrupt and substantial changes in the productivity of some fisheries species may be explained by predation-driven alternate stable states in their population levels. With this hypothesis, an increase in fishing or a natural perturbation can drive a population from an upper to a lower stable-equilibrium population level. After fishing is reduced or the perturbation ended, this low population level can persist due to the regulatory effect of the predator. Although established in theoretical studies, there is limited empirical support for predation-driven alternate stable states in exploited marine fish populations. We present evidence that egg predation by haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) can cause alternate stable population levels in Georges Bank Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). Egg predation by haddock explains a substantial decoupling of herring spawning stock biomass (an index of egg production) from observed larval herring abundance (an index of egg hatching). Estimated egg survival rates ranged from <2-70% from 1971 to 2005. A population model incorporating egg predation and herring fishing explains the major population trends of Georges Bank herring over four decades and predicts that, when the haddock population is high, seemingly conservative levels of fishing can still precipitate a severe decline in the herring population. These findings illustrate how efforts to rebuild fisheries can be undermined by not incorporating ecological interactions into fisheries models and management plans.

A composite fishing index to support the monitoring and sustainable management of world fisheries.

Overfishing has severe social, economic, and environmental ramifications. Eliminating global overfishing is one of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs require effective policy and progress monitoring. However, current indicators are issue-specific and cannot be utilized to measure fisheries efficacy holistically. This study develops a comprehensive index that takes into account the inputs, outputs, and ecological implications of fisheries. These components are then merged to form a single composite fishing index that evaluates both total fishing pressure on the ecosystem and historical patterns. The global fishing intensity grew by a factor of eleven between 1950 and 2017, and geographical differences emerged. The fishing intensity of developed countries peaked in 1997 and has since fallen due to management, but developing countries' fishing intensity has increased continuously over the whole research period, with quasi-linear growth after 1980. Africa has experienced the most rapid expansion in fishing activity and now has the highest fishing intensity. This index takes a more comprehensive and objective look at fisheries. Its worldwide spatial-temporal comparison enables the identification of similar temporal trends across countries or regions, as well as areas of uneven development and hotspot sites for targeted policy action.

Towards vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all: learning from the last 30 years to inform the next 30 years.

A common goal among fisheries science professionals, stakeholders, and rights holders is to ensure the persistence and resilience of vibrant fish populations and sustainable, equitable fisheries in diverse aquatic ecosystems, from small headwater streams to offshore pelagic waters. Achieving this goal requires a complex intersection of science and management, and a recognition of the interconnections among people, place, and fish that govern these tightly coupled socioecological and sociotechnical systems. The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) convenes every four years and provides a unique global forum to debate and discuss threats, issues, and opportunities facing fish populations and fisheries. The 2021 WFC meeting, hosted remotely in Adelaide, Australia, marked the 30th year since the first meeting was held in Athens, Greece, and provided an opportunity to reflect on progress made in the past 30 years and provide guidance for the future. We assembled a diverse team of individuals involved with the Adelaide WFC and reflected on the major challenges that faced fish and fisheries over the past 30 years, discussed progress toward overcoming those challenges, and then used themes that emerged during the Congress to identify issues and opportunities to improve sustainability in the world's fisheries for the next 30 years. Key future needs and opportunities identified include: rethinking fisheries management systems and modelling approaches, modernizing and integrating assessment and information systems, being responsive and flexible in addressing persistent and emerging threats to fish and fisheries, mainstreaming the human dimension of fisheries, rethinking governance, policy and compliance, and achieving equity and inclusion in fisheries. We also identified a number of cross-cutting themes including better understanding the role of fish as nutrition in a hungry world, adapting to climate change, embracing transdisciplinarity, respecting Indigenous knowledge systems, thinking ahead with foresight science, and working together across scales. By reflecting on the past and thinking about the future, we aim to provide guidance for achieving our mutual goal of sustaining vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all. We hope that this prospective thinking can serve as a guide to (i) assess progress towards achieving this lofty goal and (ii) refine our path with input from new and emerging voices and approaches in fisheries science, management, and stewardship.

Functional responses and scaling in predator-prey interactions of marine fishes: contemporary issues and emerging concepts.

Predator-prey interactions are a primary structuring force vital to the resilience of marine communities and sustainability of the world's oceans. Human influences on marine ecosystems mediate changes in species interactions. This generality is evinced by the cascading effects of overharvesting top predators on the structure and function of marine ecosystems. It follows that ecological forecasting, ecosystem management, and marine spatial planning require a better understanding of food web relationships. Characterising and scaling predator-prey interactions for use in tactical and strategic tools (i.e. multi-species management and ecosystem models) are paramount in this effort. Here, we explore what issues are involved and must be considered to advance the use of predator-prey theory in the context of marine fisheries science. We address pertinent contemporary ecological issues including (1) the approaches and complexities of evaluating predator responses in marine systems; (2) the 'scaling up' of predator-prey interactions to the population, community, and ecosystem level; (3) the role of predator-prey theory in contemporary fisheries and ecosystem modelling approaches; and (4) directions for the future. Our intent is to point out needed research directions that will improve our understanding of predator-prey interactions in the context of the sustainable marine fisheries and ecosystem management.

Primary production ultimately limits fisheries economic performance.

Living marine resources (LMRs) contribute considerably to marine economies. Oceans continue to respond to the effects of global change, with environmental factors anticipated to impact future seafood production and its associated economic performance. Here we document novel relationships between primary productivity and LMR-based economics for US regional marine ecosystems and 64 international large marine ecosystems (LMEs). Intermediate relationships between production, total biomass, fisheries landings, revenue, and LMR-based employment are also elucidated. We found that all these factors were dependent on the amount of basal production in a given system. In addition, factors including human population, exploitation history, and governance interventions significantly influenced these relationships. As system productivity plays a foundational role in determining fisheries-based economics throughout global LMEs, greater accounting for these relationships has significant implications for global seafood sustainability and food security. Quantifying the direct link between primary production and fisheries economic performance serves to better inform ecosystem overfishing thresholds and their economic consequences. Further recognition and understanding of these relationships is key to ensuring that these connections are accounted for more effectively in sustainable management practices.

Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems.

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Comparative analysis of marine ecosystems: international production modelling workshop.

Understanding the drivers that dictate the productivity of marine ecosystems continues to be a globally important issue. A vast literature identifies three main processes that regulate the production dynamics of such ecosystems: biophysical, exploitative and trophodynamic. Exploring the prominence among this 'triad' of drivers, through a synthetic analysis, is critical for understanding how marine ecosystems function and subsequently produce fisheries resources of interest to humans. To explore this topic further, an international workshop was held on 10-14 May 2010, at the National Academy of Science's Jonsson Center in Woods Hole, MA, USA. The workshop compiled the data required to develop production models at different hierarchical levels (e.g. species, guild, ecosystem) for many of the major Northern Hemisphere marine ecosystems that have supported notable fisheries. Analyses focused on comparable total system biomass production, functionally equivalent species production, or simulation studies for 11 different marine fishery ecosystems. Workshop activities also led to new analytical tools. Preliminary results suggested common patterns driving overall fisheries production in these ecosystems, but also highlighted variation in the relative importance of each among ecosystems.

Changes in higher trophic level productivity, diversity and niche space in a rapidly warming continental shelf ecosystem.

There is long-standing ecological and socioeconomic interest in what controls the diversity and productivity of ecosystems. That focus has intensified with shifting environmental conditions associated with accelerating climate change. The U.S. Northeast Shelf (NES) is a well-studied continental shelf marine ecosystem that is among the more rapidly warming marine systems worldwide. Furthermore, many constituent species have experienced significant distributional shifts. However, the system response of the NES to climate change goes beyond simple shifts in species distribution. The fish and macroinvertebrate communities of the NES have increased in species diversity and overall productivity in recent decades, despite no significant decline in fishing pressure. Species distribution models constructed using random forest classification and regression trees were fit for the dominant species in the system. Over time, the areal distribution of occupancy habitat has increased for approximately 80% of the modeled taxa, suggesting most species have significantly increased their range and niche space. These niche spaces were analyzed to determine the area of niche overlap between species pairs. For the vast majority of species pairs, interaction has increased over time suggesting greater niche overlap and the increased probability for more intense species interactions, such as between competitors or predators and prey. Furthermore, the species taxonomic composition and size structure indicate a potential tropicalization of the fish community. The system and community changes are consistent with the view that the NES may be transitioning from a cold temperate or boreal ecoregion to one more consistent with the composition of a warm temperate or Carolinian system.

Global ecosystem overfishing: Clear delineation within real limits to production.

The well-documented value of marine fisheries is threatened by overfishing. Management typically focuses on target populations but lacks effective tools to document or restrain overexploitation of marine ecosystems. Here, we present three indices and accompanying thresholds to detect and delineate ecosystem overfishing (EOF): the Fogarty, Friedland, and Ryther indices. These are based on widely available and readily interpreted catch and satellite data that link fisheries landings to primary production using known limits of trophic transfer efficiency. We propose theoretically and empirically based thresholds for each of those indices; with these criteria, several ecosystems are fished sustainably, but nearly 40 to 50% of tropical and temperate ecosystems exceed even extreme thresholds. Applying these criteria to global fisheries data results in strong evidence for two specific instances of EOF, increases in both pressure on tropical fish and a climate-mediated polar shift. Here, we show that these two patterns represent evidence for global EOF.

Underappreciated species in ecology: "ugly fish" in the northwest Atlantic Ocean.

Species shifts and replacements are common in ecological studies. Observations thereof serve as the impetus for many ecological endeavors. Many of the species now known to dominate ecosystem functioning were largely ignored until studies of those underappreciated species elucidated their critical roles. Recognizing the potential importance of underappreciated species has implications for functional redundancies in ecosystems and should alter our approach to long-term monitoring. One example of an applied ecological system containing species shifts, underappreciated species, and potential changes in functional redundancies is the topic of fisheries. The demersal component of many fish communities usually consists of high-profile and commercially valuable species that are targets of fisheries, plus a diverse group of lesser known species that have minimal commercial value and focus. Yet ecologically these traditionally nontargeted species are often a major biomass sink in marine ecosystems and can also be critical in the functioning of bentho-demersal food webs. I examined the biomass trajectories of several species of skates, cottids, lophiids, anarhichadids, zooarcids, and similar species in the northeast U.S. Atlantic ecosystem to determine whether their relative abundance has changed across the past four decades. Distribution and stomach contents of these species were also evaluated over time to further elucidate the relative importance of these species. Landings of these underappreciated bentho-demersal fish were also examined in comparison to those species that historically have been commercially targeted. Of particular emphasis was the evaluation of evidence for sequential stock depletion and the ramifications for functional redundancy for this ecosystem. Results indicate that some of these fish species are now the dominant piscivores, benthivores, and scavengers in this ecosystem. These formerly under-studied species generally have either maintained a consistent population size or have increased in abundance (and expanded in distribution) over the past several decades. Nontraditionally targeted fish species are an often overlooked but important component of bentho-demersal fish communities. Implications for the energy flow and resilience specifically for future fisheries and generally for harvesting biological resources are significant, remaining critical issues for the world's ecosystems.

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

NEED TO ASSESS THE SKILL OF ECOSYSTEM MODELS: Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. NORTHEAST US ATLANTIS MARINE ECOSYSTEM MODEL: We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. SKILL ASSESSMENT IS BOTH POSSIBLE AND ADVISABLE: We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable to any type of predictive model, and should be considered for use in fields outside ecology (e.g. economics, climate change, and risk assessment).

Quantifying patterns of change in marine ecosystem response to multiple pressures.

The ability to understand and ultimately predict ecosystem response to multiple pressures is paramount to successfully implement ecosystem-based management. Thresholds shifts and nonlinear patterns in ecosystem responses can be used to determine reference points that identify levels of a pressure that may drastically alter ecosystem status, which can inform management action. However, quantifying ecosystem reference points has proven elusive due in large part to the multi-dimensional nature of both ecosystem pressures and ecosystem responses. We used ecological indicators, synthetic measures of ecosystem status and functioning, to enumerate important ecosystem attributes and to reduce the complexity of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME). Random forests were used to quantify the importance of four environmental and four anthropogenic pressure variables to the value of ecological indicators, and to quantify shifts in aggregate ecological indicator response along pressure gradients. Anthropogenic pressure variables were critical defining features and were able to predict an average of 8-13% (up to 25-66% for individual ecological indicators) of the variation in ecological indicator values, whereas environmental pressures were able to predict an average of 1-5 % (up to 9-26% for individual ecological indicators) of ecological indicator variation. Each pressure variable predicted a different suite of ecological indicator's variation and the shapes of ecological indicator responses along pressure gradients were generally nonlinear. Threshold shifts in ecosystem response to exploitation, the most important pressure variable, occurred when commercial landings were 20 and 60% of total surveyed biomass. Although present, threshold shifts in ecosystem response to environmental pressures were much less important, which suggests that anthropogenic pressures have significantly altered the ecosystem structure and functioning of the NES LME. Gradient response curves provide ecologically informed transformations of pressure variables to explain patterns of ecosystem structure and functioning. By concurrently identifying thresholds for a suite of ecological indicator responses to multiple pressures, we demonstrate that ecosystem reference points can be evaluated and used to support ecosystem-based management.

Emergent Properties Delineate Marine Ecosystem Perturbation and Recovery.

Whether there are common and emergent patterns from marine ecosystems remains an important question because marine ecosystems provide billions of dollars of ecosystem services to the global community, but face many perturbations with significant consequences. Here, we develop cumulative trophic patterns for marine ecosystems, featuring sigmoidal cumulative biomass (cumB)-trophic level (TL) and 'hockey-stick' production (cumP)-cumB curves. The patterns have a trophodynamic theoretical basis and capitalize on emergent, fundamental, and invariant features of marine ecosystems. These patterns have strong global support, being observed in over 120 marine ecosystems. Parameters from these curves elucidate the direction and magnitude of marine ecosystem perturbation or recovery; if biomass and productivity can be monitored effectively over time, such relations may prove to be broadly useful. Curve parameters are proposed as possible ecosystem thresholds, perhaps to better manage the marine ecosystems of the world.

Pathways between primary production and fisheries yields of large marine ecosystems.

The shift in marine resource management from a compartmentalized approach of dealing with resources on a species basis to an approach based on management of spatially defined ecosystems requires an accurate accounting of energy flow. The flow of energy from primary production through the food web will ultimately limit upper trophic-level fishery yields. In this work, we examine the relationship between yield and several metrics including net primary production, chlorophyll concentration, particle-export ratio, and the ratio of secondary to primary production. We also evaluate the relationship between yield and two additional rate measures that describe the export of energy from the pelagic food web, particle export flux and mesozooplankton productivity. We found primary production is a poor predictor of global fishery yields for a sample of 52 large marine ecosystems. However, chlorophyll concentration, particle-export ratio, and the ratio of secondary to primary production were positively associated with yields. The latter two measures provide greater mechanistic insight into factors controlling fishery production than chlorophyll concentration alone. Particle export flux and mesozooplankton productivity were also significantly related to yield on a global basis. Collectively, our analyses suggest that factors related to the export of energy from pelagic food webs are critical to defining patterns of fishery yields. Such trophic patterns are associated with temperature and latitude and hence greater yields are associated with colder, high latitude ecosystems.

Silver hake tracks changes in Northwest Atlantic circulation.

Recent studies documenting shifts in spatial distribution of many organisms in response to a warming climate highlight the need to understand the mechanisms underlying species distribution at large spatial scales. Here we present one noteworthy example of remote oceanographic processes governing the spatial distribution of adult silver hake, Merluccius bilinearis, a commercially important fish in the Northeast US shelf region. Changes in spatial distribution of silver hake over the last 40 years are highly correlated with the position of the Gulf Stream. These changes in distribution are in direct response to local changes in bottom temperature on the continental shelf that are responding to the same large scale circulation change affecting the Gulf Stream path, namely changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). If the AMOC weakens, as is suggested by global climate models, silver hake distribution will remain in a poleward position, the extent to which could be forecast at both decadal and multidecadal scales.