Trans-Balance: Reducing demographic disparity for prediction models in the presence of class imbalance.

INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction, including early disease detection, prevention, and intervention, is essential to precision medicine. However, systematic bias in risk estimation caused by heterogeneity across different demographic groups can lead to inappropriate or misinformed treatment decisions. In addition, low incidence (class-imbalance) outcomes negatively impact the classification performance of many standard learning algorithms which further exacerbates the racial disparity issues. Therefore, it is crucial to improve the performance of statistical and machine learning models in underrepresented populations in the presence of heavy class imbalance. METHOD: To address demographic disparity in the presence of class imbalance, we develop a novel framework, Trans-Balance, by leveraging recent advances in imbalance learning, transfer learning, and federated learning. We consider a practical setting where data from multiple sites are stored locally under privacy constraints. RESULTS: We show that the proposed Trans-Balance framework improves upon existing approaches by explicitly accounting for heterogeneity across demographic subgroups and cohorts. We demonstrate the feasibility and validity of our methods through numerical experiments and a real application to a multi-cohort study with data from participants of four large, NIH-funded cohorts for stroke risk prediction. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that the Trans-Balance approach significantly improves predictive performance, especially in scenarios marked by severe class imbalance and demographic disparity. Given its versatility and effectiveness, Trans-Balance offers a valuable contribution to enhancing risk prediction in biomedical research and related fields.

Efficient Evaluation of Prediction Rules in Semi-Supervised Settings under Stratified Sampling.

In many contemporary applications, large amounts of unlabeled data are readily available while labeled examples are limited. There has been substantial interest in semi-supervised learning (SSL) which aims to leverage unlabeled data to improve estimation or prediction. However, current SSL literature focuses primarily on settings where labeled data is selected uniformly at random from the population of interest. Stratified sampling, while posing additional analytical challenges, is highly applicable to many real world problems. Moreover, no SSL methods currently exist for estimating the prediction performance of a fitted model when the labeled data is not selected uniformly at random. In this paper, we propose a two-step SSL procedure for evaluating a prediction rule derived from a working binary regression model based on the Brier score and overall misclassification rate under stratified sampling. In step I, we impute the missing labels via weighted regression with nonlinear basis functions to account for stratified sampling and to improve efficiency. In step II, we augment the initial imputations to ensure the consistency of the resulting estimators regardless of the specification of the prediction model or the imputation model. The final estimator is then obtained with the augmented imputations. We provide asymptotic theory and numerical studies illustrating that our proposals outperform their supervised counterparts in terms of efficiency gain. Our methods are motivated by electronic health record (EHR) research and validated with a real data analysis of an EHR-based study of diabetic neuropathy.

Weakly Semi-supervised phenotyping using Electronic Health records.

OBJECTIVE: Electronic Health Record (EHR) based phenotyping is a crucial yet challenging problem in the biomedical field. Though clinicians typically determine patient-level diagnoses via manual chart review, the sheer volume and heterogeneity of EHR data renders such tasks challenging, time-consuming, and prohibitively expensive, thus leading to a scarcity of clinical annotations in EHRs. Weakly supervised learning algorithms have been successfully applied to various EHR phenotyping problems, due to their ability to leverage information from large quantities of unlabeled samples to better inform predictions based on a far smaller number of patients. However, most weakly supervised methods are subject to the challenge to choose the right cutoff value to generate an optimal classifier. Furthermore, since they only utilize the most informative features (i.e., main ICD and NLP counts) they may fail for episodic phenotypes that cannot be consistently detected via ICD and NLP data. In this paper, we propose a label-efficient, weakly semi-supervised deep learning algorithm for EHR phenotyping (WSS-DL), which overcomes the limitations above. MATERIALS AND METHODS: WSS-DL classifies patient-level disease status through a series of learning stages: 1) generating silver standard labels, 2) deriving enhanced-silver-standard labels by fitting a weakly supervised deep learning model to data with silver standard labels as outcomes and high dimensional EHR features as input, and 3) obtaining the final prediction score and classifier by fitting a supervised learning model to data with a minimal number of gold standard labels as the outcome, and the enhanced-silver-standard labels and a minimal set of most informative EHR features as input. To assess the generalizability of WSS-DL across different phenotypes and medical institutions, we apply WSS-DL to classify a total of 17 diseases, including both acute and chronic conditions, using EHR data from three healthcare systems. Additionally, we determine the minimum quantity of training labels required by WSS-DL to outperform existing supervised and semi-supervised phenotyping methods. RESULTS: The proposed method, in combining the strengths of deep learning and weakly semi-supervised learning, successfully leverages the crucial phenotyping information contained in EHR features from unlabeled samples. Indeed, the deep learning model's ability to handle high-dimensional EHR features allows it to generate strong phenotype status predictions from silver standard labels. These predictions, in turn, provide highly effective features in the final logistic regression stage, leading to high phenotyping accuracy in notably small subsets of labeled data (e.g. n = 40 labeled samples). CONCLUSION: Our method's high performance in EHR datasets with very small numbers of labels indicates its potential value in aiding doctors to diagnose rare diseases as well as conditions susceptible to misdiagnosis.

Authorship Correction: International Changes in COVID-19 Clinical Trajectories Across 315 Hospitals and 6 Countries: Retrospective Cohort Study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/31400.].

International Changes in COVID-19 Clinical Trajectories Across 315 Hospitals and 6 Countries: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have experienced 2 predominant waves of COVID-19-related hospitalizations. Comparing the clinical trajectories of patients hospitalized in separate waves of the pandemic enables further understanding of the evolving epidemiology, pathophysiology, and health care dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed electronic health record (EHR) data from patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections hospitalized in participating health care systems representing 315 hospitals across 6 countries. We compared hospitalization rates, severe COVID-19 risk, and mean laboratory values between patients hospitalized during the first and second waves of the pandemic. METHODS: Using a federated approach, each participating health care system extracted patient-level clinical data on their first and second wave cohorts and submitted aggregated data to the central site. Data quality control steps were adopted at the central site to correct for implausible values and harmonize units. Statistical analyses were performed by computing individual health care system effect sizes and synthesizing these using random effect meta-analyses to account for heterogeneity. We focused the laboratory analysis on C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, fibrinogen, procalcitonin, D-dimer, and creatinine based on their reported associations with severe COVID-19. RESULTS: Data were available for 79,613 patients, of which 32,467 were hospitalized in the first wave and 47,146 in the second wave. The prevalence of male patients and patients aged 50 to 69 years decreased significantly between the first and second waves. Patients hospitalized in the second wave had a 9.9% reduction in the risk of severe COVID-19 compared to patients hospitalized in the first wave (95% CI 8.5%-11.3%). Demographic subgroup analyses indicated that patients aged 26 to 49 years and 50 to 69 years; male and female patients; and black patients had significantly lower risk for severe disease in the second wave than in the first wave. At admission, the mean values of CRP were significantly lower in the second wave than in the first wave. On the seventh hospital day, the mean values of CRP, ferritin, fibrinogen, and procalcitonin were significantly lower in the second wave than in the first wave. In general, countries exhibited variable changes in laboratory testing rates from the first to the second wave. At admission, there was a significantly higher testing rate for D-dimer in France, Germany, and Spain. CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalized in the second wave were at significantly lower risk for severe COVID-19. This corresponded to mean laboratory values in the second wave that were more likely to be in typical physiological ranges on the seventh hospital day compared to the first wave. Our federated approach demonstrated the feasibility and power of harmonizing heterogeneous EHR data from multiple international health care systems to rapidly conduct large-scale studies to characterize how COVID-19 clinical trajectories evolve.

Modeling individualized coefficient alpha to measure quality of test score data.

Individualized coefficient alpha is defined. It is item and subject specific and is used to measure the quality of test score data with heterogenicity among the subjects and items. A regression model is developed based on 3 sets of generalized estimating equations. The first set of generalized estimating equation models the expectation of the responses, the second set models the response's variance, and the third set is proposed to estimate the individualized coefficient alpha, defined and used to measure individualized internal consistency of the responses. We also use different techniques to extend our method to handle missing data. Asymptotic property of the estimators is discussed, based on which inference on the coefficient alpha is derived. Performance of our method is evaluated through simulation study and real data analysis. The real data application is from a health literacy study in Hunan province of China.

Heterogeneous associations between interleukin-6 receptor variants and phenotypes across ancestries and implications for therapy.

The Phenome-Wide Association Study (PheWAS) is increasingly used to broadly screen for potential treatment effects, e.g., IL6R variant as a proxy for IL6R antagonists. This approach offers an opportunity to address the limited power in clinical trials to study differential treatment effects across patient subgroups. However, limited methods exist to efficiently test for differences across subgroups in the thousands of multiple comparisons generated as part of a PheWAS. In this study, we developed an approach that maximizes the power to test for heterogeneous genotype-phenotype associations and applied this approach to an IL6R PheWAS among individuals of African (AFR) and European (EUR) ancestries. We identified 29 traits with differences in IL6R variant-phenotype associations, including a lower risk of type 2 diabetes in AFR (OR 0.96) vs EUR (OR 1.0, p-value for heterogeneity = 8.5 × 10-3), and higher white blood cell count (p-value for heterogeneity = 8.5 × 10-131). These data suggest a more salutary effect of IL6R blockade for T2D among individuals of AFR vs EUR ancestry and provide data to inform ongoing clinical trials targeting IL6 for an expanding number of conditions. Moreover, the method to test for heterogeneity of associations can be applied broadly to other large-scale genotype-phenotype screens in diverse populations.

Accelerating Genome- and Phenome-Wide Association Studies using GPUs - A case study using data from the Million Veteran Program.

The expansion of biobanks has significantly propelled genomic discoveries yet the sheer scale of data within these repositories poses formidable computational hurdles, particularly in handling extensive matrix operations required by prevailing statistical frameworks. In this work, we introduce computational optimizations to the SAIGE (Scalable and Accurate Implementation of Generalized Mixed Model) algorithm, notably employing a GPU-based distributed computing approach to tackle these challenges. We applied these optimizations to conduct a large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) across 2,068 phenotypes derived from electronic health records of 635,969 diverse participants from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Million Veteran Program (MVP). Our strategies enabled scaling up the analysis to over 6,000 nodes on the Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) Summit High-Performance Computer (HPC), resulting in a 20-fold acceleration compared to the baseline model. We also provide a Docker container with our optimizations that was successfully used on multiple cloud infrastructures on UK Biobank and All of Us datasets where we showed significant time and cost benefits over the baseline SAIGE model.

Diversity and scale: Genetic architecture of 2068 traits in the VA Million Veteran Program.

One of the justifiable criticisms of human genetic studies is the underrepresentation of participants from diverse populations. Lack of inclusion must be addressed at-scale to identify causal disease factors and understand the genetic causes of health disparities. We present genome-wide associations for 2068 traits from 635,969 participants in the Department of Veterans Affairs Million Veteran Program, a longitudinal study of diverse United States Veterans. Systematic analysis revealed 13,672 genomic risk loci; 1608 were only significant after including non-European populations. Fine-mapping identified causal variants at 6318 signals across 613 traits. One-third (n = 2069) were identified in participants from non-European populations. This reveals a broadly similar genetic architecture across populations, highlights genetic insights gained from underrepresented groups, and presents an extensive atlas of genetic associations.

Assessing the Most Vulnerable Subgroup to Type II Diabetes Associated with Statin Usage: Evidence from Electronic Health Record Data.

There have been increased concerns that the use of statins, one of the most commonly prescribed drugs for treating coronary artery disease, is potentially associated with the increased risk of new-onset Type II diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, to date, there is no robust evidence supporting as to whether and what kind of populations are indeed vulnerable for developing T2D after taking statins. In this case study, leveraging the biobank and electronic health record data in the Partner Health System, we introduce a new data analysis pipeline and a novel statistical methodology that address existing limitations by (i) designing a rigorous causal framework that systematically examines the causal effects of statin usage on T2D risk in observational data, (ii) uncovering which patient subgroup is most vulnerable for developing T2D after taking statins, and (iii) assessing the replicability and statistical significance of the most vulnerable subgroup via a bootstrap calibration procedure. Our proposed approach delivers asymptotically sharp confidence intervals and debiased estimate for the treatment effect of the most vulnerable subgroup in the presence of high-dimensional covariates. With our proposed approach, we find that females with high T2D genetic risk are at the highest risk of developing T2D due to statin usage.