The Role of Suburbanization in Metropolitan Segregation After 1940.

The three decades from 1940 through 1970 mark a turning point in the spatial scale of Black-White residential segregation in the United States compared with earlier years. We decompose metropolitan segregation into three components: segregation within the city, within the suburbs, and between the city and its suburbs. We then show that extreme levels of segregation were well established in most cities by 1940, and they changed only modestly by 1970. In this period, changes in segregation were greater at the metropolitan scale, driven by racially selective population growth in the suburbs. We also examine major sources of rising segregation, including region, metropolitan total, and Black population sizes, and indicators of redlining in the central cities based on risk maps prepared by the Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) in the late 1930s. In addition to overall regional differences, segregation between the city and suburbs and within suburbia increased more in metropolitan areas with larger Black populations, but this relationship was found only in the North. In contrast to some recent theorizing, there is no association between preparation of an HOLC risk map or the share of city neighborhoods that were redlined and subsequent change in any component of segregation.

Improving Estimates of Neighborhood Change with Constant Tract Boundaries.

Social scientists routinely rely on methods of interpolation to adjust available data to their research needs. Spatial data from different sources often are based on different geographies that need to be reconciled, and some boundaries (e.g., administrative or political boundaries) change frequently. This study calls attention to the potential for substantial error in efforts to harmonize data to constant boundaries using standard approaches to areal and population interpolation. The case in point is census tract boundaries in the United States, which are redefined before every decennial census. Research on neighborhood effects and neighborhood change rely heavily on estimates of local area characteristics for a consistent area of time, for which they now routinely use estimates based on interpolation offered by sources such as the Neighborhood Change Data Base (NCDB) and Longitudinal Tract Data Base (LTDB). We identify a fundamental problem with how these estimates are created, and we reveal an alarming level of error in estimates of population characteristics in 2000 within 2010 boundaries. We do this by comparing estimates from one of these sources (the LTDB) to true values calculated by re-aggregating original 2000 census microdata to 2010 tract areas. We then demonstrate an alternative approach that allows the re-aggregated values to be publicly disclosed, using "differential privacy" (DP) methods to inject random noise that meets Census Bureau standards for protecting confidentiality of the raw data. We show that the DP estimates are considerably more accurate than the LTDB estimates based on interpolation, and we examine conditions under which interpolation is more susceptible to error. This study reveals cause for greater caution in the use of interpolated estimates from any source. Until and unless DP estimates can be publicly disclosed for a wide range of variables and years, research on neighborhood change should routinely examine data for signs of estimation error that may be substantial in a large share of tracts that experienced complex boundary changes.

Income Segregation: Up or Down, and for Whom?

Reports of rising income segregation in the United States have been brought into question by the observation that post-2000 estimates are upwardly biased because of a reduction in the sample sizes on which they are based. Recent studies have offered estimates of this sample-count bias using public data. We show here that there are two substantial sources of systematic bias in estimating segregation levels: bias associated with sample size and bias associated with using weighted sample data. We rely on new correction methods using the original census sample data for individual households to provide more accurate estimates. Family income segregation rose markedly in the 1980s but only selectively after 1990. For some categories of families, segregation declined after 1990. There has been an upward trend for families with children but not specifically for families with children in the upper or lower 10% of the income distribution. Separate analyses by race/ethnicity show that income segregation was not generally higher among Blacks and Hispanics than among White families, and evidence of income segregation trends for these separate groups is mixed. Income segregation increased for all three racial groups for families with children, particularly for Hispanics (but not Whites or Blacks) in the upper 10% of the income distribution. Trends vary for specific combinations of race/ethnicity, presence of children, and location in the income distribution, offering new challenges for understanding the underlying processes of change.

Schools at the Rural-Urban Boundary - Blurring the Divide?

Schools mirror the communities in which they are located. Research on school inequality across the rural-urban spectrum tends to focus on the contrast between urban, suburban, and rural schools and glosses over the variation within these areas as well as the similarities between them. To address this gap and provide a richer description of the spatial distribution of educational inequality, we examine the school composition, achievement, and resources of all U.S. elementary schools in 2010-2011. We apply standard census definitions of what areas fall within central cities, the remainder of metropolitan regions, and in rural America. We then apply spatially explicit methods to reveal blurred boundaries and gradual gradients rather than sharp breaks at the edges of these zones. The results show high levels of variation within the suburbs and substantial commonality between rural and urban areas.

School Segregation and Disparities in Urban, Suburban, and Rural Areas.

Much of the literature on racial and ethnic educational inequality focuses on the contrast between Black and Hispanic students in urban areas and white suburban students. This study extends past research on school segregation and racial/ethnic disparities by highlighting the importance of rural areas and regional variation. Although schools in rural America are disproportionately white, they nevertheless are like urban schools, and disadvantaged relative to suburban schools, in terms of poverty and test performance. The group most affected by rural school disadvantage is Native Americans, who are a small share of students nationally but much more prominent and highly disadvantaged in rural areas, particularly in some parts of the country. These figures suggest a strong case for including rural schools in the continuing conversation about how to deal with unfairness in public education.

Racial segregation in postbellum Southern cities: The case of Washington, D.C.

BACKGROUND: Segregation in Southern cities has been described as a 20th-century development, layered onto an earlier pattern in which whites and blacks (both slaves and free black people) shared the same neighborhoods. Urban historians have pointed out ways in which the Southern postbellum pattern was less benign, but studies relying on census data aggregated by administrative areas - and segregation measures based on this data - have not confirmed their observations. METHODS: This study is based mainly on 100% microdata from the 1880 census that has been mapped at the address level in Washington, D.C. This data makes it possible to examine in detail the unique spatial configuration of segregation that is found in this city, especially the pattern of housing in alleys. RESULTS: While segregation appears to have been low, as reflected in data by wards and even by much smaller enumeration districts, analyses at a finer spatial scale reveal strongly patterned separation between blacks and whites at this early time. CONTRIBUTION: This research provides much new information about segregation in a major Southern city at the end of the 19th century. It also demonstrates the importance of dealing explicitly with issues of both scale and spatial pattern in studies of segregation.

Black Lives and Policing: The Larger Context of Ghettoization.

President Lyndon Johnson's appointment of the National Advisory Commission on Civil Disorder (Kerner Commission) followed a series of inner-city riots in the 1960s. The Commission's 1968 report, issued months before Martin Luther King, Jr.'s assassination, famously concluded that the United States was moving toward separate societies, one Black and one White. In recent years, another version of racialized violence has garnered public attention: systemic police brutality and repeated killings of unarmed Black and Brown men by police, spawning a new civil rights movement proclaiming Black Lives Matter. Condemnation of this violence and acknowledgment of its racial content by leading public officials is now standard fare, but criminal convictions and departmental discipline are scarce. This review essay brings attention back to the institutionalized racism called out by the Kerner Commission, arguing that occasional and even chronic police violence is an outcome rather than the core problem. A more fundamental issue is a routine function of policing-protecting mainstream United States from the perceived risk from its "ghetto" underbelly through spatial containment.

Birds of a Feather: Social Bases of Neighborhood Formation in Newark, New Jersey, 1880.

This study examines the bases of residential segregation in a late nineteenth century American city, recognizing the strong tendency toward homophily within neighborhoods. Our primary question is how ethnicity, social class, nativity, and family composition affect where people live. Segregation is usually studied one dimension at a time, but these social differences are interrelated, and thus a multivariate approach is needed to understand their effects. We find that ethnicity is the main basis of local residential sorting, while occupational standing and, to a lesser degree, family life cycle and nativity also are significant. A second concern is the geographic scale of neighborhoods: in this study, the geographic area within which the characteristics of potential neighbors matter in locational outcomes of individuals. Studies of segregation typically use a single spatial scale, often one determined by the availability of administrative data. We take advantage of a unique data set containing the address and geo-referenced location of every resident. We conclude that it is the most local scale that offers the best prediction of people's similarity to their neighbors. Adding information at larger scales minimally improves prediction of the person's location. The 1880 neighborhoods of Newark, New Jersey, were formed as individuals located themselves among similar neighbors on a single street segment.

Global Neighborhoods: Beyond the Multiethnic Metropolis.

Neighborhoods where blacks and whites live in integrated settings alongside Hispanics and Asians represent a new phenomenon in the United States. These "global neighborhoods" have previously been identified in the nation's most diverse metropolitan centers. This study examines the full range of metropolitan areas to ask whether similar processes are occurring in other parts of the country. Is there evidence of stable racial integration in places that lack such diversity? What are the paths of neighborhood change in areas with few Hispanic or Asian residents, or areas where Hispanics are the principal minority group, or where there is no large minority presence at all? We distinguish four types of metropolitan regions: white, white/black, white/Hispanic/Asian, and multiethnic. These regions necessarily differ greatly in neighborhood composition, but some similar trajectories of neighborhood change are found in all of them. The results provide new evidence of the effect of Hispanic and Asian presence on black-white segregation in all parts of the country.

Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970-2005.

Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970-2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal-a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm's way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices.

School Segregation, Charter Schools, and Access to Quality Education.

Race, class, neighborhood, and school quality are all highly inter-related in the American educational system. In the last decade a new factor has come into play, the option of attending a charter school. We offer a comprehensive analysis of the disparities among public schools attended by white, black, Hispanic, Asian, and Native American children in 2010-2011, including all districts in which charter schools existed. We compare schools in terms of poverty concentration, racial composition, and standardized test scores, and we also examine how attending a charter or non-charter school affects these differences. Black and Hispanic (and to a lesser extent Native American and Asian) students attend elementary and high schools with higher rates of poverty than white students. Especially for whites and Asians, attending a charter school means lower exposure to poverty. Children's own race and the poverty and charter status of their schools affect the test scores and racial isolation of schools that children attend in complex combinations. Most intriguing, attending a charter school means attending a better performing school in high-poverty areas but a lower performing school in low-poverty areas. Yet even in the best case the positive effect of attending a charter school only slightly offsets the disadvantages of black and Hispanic students.

Segregation and Neighborhood Change in Northern Cities: New Historical GIS Data from 1900-1930.

Most quantitative research on segregation and neighborhood change in American cities prior to 1940 has utilized data published by the Census Bureau at the ward level. The transcription of census manuscripts has made it possible to aggregate individual records to a finer level, the enumeration district (ED). Advances in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have facilitated mapping these data, opening new possibilities for historical GIS research. We report here the creation of a mapped public use data set for EDs in ten northern cities for each decade from 1900 to 1930. We illustrate a range of research topics that can now be pursued: recruitment into ethnic neighborhoods, the effects of comprehensive zoning on neighborhood change, and white flight from black neighbors.

Creating the Black Ghetto: Black Residential Patterns Before and During the Great Migration.

Were black ghettos a product of white reaction to the Great Migration in the 1920s and 1930s, or did the ghettoization process have earlier roots? This presentation takes advantage of recently available data on black and white residential patterns in several major Northern cities in the period 1880-1940. Using geographic areas smaller than contemporary census tracts, it traces the growth of black populations in each city and trends in the level of isolation and segregation. In addition it analyzes the determinants of location: which blacks lived in neighborhoods with higher black concentrations, and what does this tell us about the ghettoization process? We find that the development of ghettos in an embryonic form was well underway in 1880, that segregation became intense prior to the Great Migration, and that in this whole period blacks were segregated based on race rather than class or Southern origin.

VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE DAMAGE ON THE U.S. GULF COAST SINCE 1950.

We study hurricane risk on the U.S. Gulf Coast during 1950-2005, estimating the wind damage and storm surge from every hurricane in this extended period. Wind damage is estimated from the known path and wind speeds of individual storms and calibrated to fit actual damage reports for a sample of Gulf Coast storms. Storm surge is estimated using the SLOSH model developed by NOAA. These models provide the first comprehensive overview of the hurricane storm hazard as it has been experienced over a fifty-six-year period. We link the estimated damage with information on the population and specific socio-demographic components of the population (by age, race, and poverty status). Results show that white, young adult, and nonpoor populations have shifted over time away from zones with higher risk of wind damage, while more vulnerable population groups-the elderly, African Americans, and poor-have moved in the opposite direction. All groups have moved away from areas with high risk of storm surge since 1970. But in this case, perhaps because living near the water is still perceived as an amenity, those at highest risk are whites, elderly, and nonpoor households. Here exposure represents a trade-off between the risk and the amenity.

White ethnic residential segregation in historical perspective: US cities in 1880.

Investigating immigrant residential patterns in 1880 offers a baseline for understanding residential assimilation trajectories in subsequent eras. This study uses 100% count information from the 1880 Census to estimate a multilevel model of ethnic isolation and exposure to native whites in 67 cities for individual Irish, German and British residents. At the individual level, the key predictors are drawn from assimilation theory: nativity, occupation, and marital status. The multilevel model makes it possible to control for these predictors and to study independent sources of variation in segregation across cities. There is considerable variation at the city level, especially due to differences in the relative sizes of groups. Other significant city-level predictors of people's neighborhood composition include the share of group members who are foreign-born, the disparity in occupational standing between group members and native whites, and the degree of occupational segregation between them.

Assimilation by the third generation? Marital choices of white ethnics at the dawn of the twentieth century.

It is well known that marital ethnic endogamy declines by immigrant generation, but there is little information on how many generations are required for full marital assimilation. This study for 1880-1910 includes information on the birthplace of men's grandparents, so we can compare the first, second, third, and later generations. We estimate the odds of marrying a native white woman with native-born parents (NWNP) for Irish, Germans, British, and men of other ethnicities. Most groups even in their third generation still show a significantly lower rate of marital assimilation than native stock men. But mixed ancestry (having at least one NWNP parent or grandparent) can result in nearly complete marital assimilation by the third generation.

The Geography of Inequality: Why Separate Means Unequal in American Public Schools.

Persistent school segregation does not only mean that children of different racial and ethnic backgrounds attend different schools, but their schools are also unequal in their performance. This study documents nationally the extent of disparities in school performance between schools attended by whites and Asians compared to blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans. It further examines the geography of school inequality in two ways. First it analyzes the segregation of students between different types of school profiles based on racial composition, poverty and metropolitan location. Second it estimates the independent effects of these and other school and school district characteristics on school performance, identifying which aspects of school segregation are the most important sources of disadvantage. A focus on schools at the bottom of the distribution as in No Schools Left Behind would not ameliorate wide disparities between groups that are found run across the whole spectrum of school performance.

Immigrant Incorporation in American Cities: Contextual Determinants of Irish, German and British Intermarriage in 1880.

This study adds to a growing body of research on the contextual determinants of marriage choice and provides new information on ethnic intermarriage in the late 19th Century. Census microdata for 66 major cities in 1880 are used to estimate a multilevel model of assortative mating of Irish, German, and British immigrants. Results demonstrate that marital choices made by individuals are significantly affected by the local urban context where they live. In addition the very large disparity in endogamy between the British and other groups can mainly be attributed to the smaller size of the British population in these cities.

Residential Segregation under Jim Crow: Whites, Blacks, and Mulattoes in Southern Cities, 1880-1920.

We study the residential patterns of blacks and mulattoes in 10 Southern cities in 1880 and 1920. researchers have documented the salience of social differences among African Americans in this period, partly related to mulattoes' higher occupational status. Did these differences result in clustering of these two groups in different neighborhoods, and were mulattoes less separated from whites? If so, did the differences diminish in these decades after reconstruction due a Jim Crow system that did not distinguish between blacks and mulattoes? We use geocoded census microdata for 1880 and 1920 to address these questions. Segregation between whites and both blacks and mulattoes was already high in 1880, especially at a fine spatial scale, and it increased sharply by 1920. In this respect, whites did not distinguish between these two groups. However, blacks and mulattoes were quite segregated from one another in 1880, and even more so by 1920. this pattern did not result from mulattoes' moderately higher-class position. Hence, as the color line between whites and all non-whites was becoming harder, blacks and mulattoes were separating further from each other. understanding what led to this pattern remains a key question about racial identities and racialization in the early twentieth century.

The important health impact of where a child lives: neighborhood characteristics and the burden of lead poisoning.

Toxins and other health threats can cause health problems, whether they are present in the child's own home, other neighborhood homes where the child spends time, or common areas such as playgrounds. We assess the impact of where a child lives on the burden of lead poisoning. Statewide lead screening data was obtained from the Rhode Island Department of Health. Block group level indicators of old housing and poverty were obtained from the US Census. Of the 204,746 study children, 35,416 (17.3%) had a blood lead level≥10 µg/dL. The proportion of study children who were lead poisoned in each block group ranged from 0.0 to 48.6%. The proportion of study children with an elevated blood lead level increased from 8% among children living in block groups in the lowest quintile of poverty to 31% for those in the highest quintile for poverty. Old housing also had an important impact on the risk of lead poisoning. The proportion of children with an elevated blood lead level increased from 7% among children living in block groups in the lowest quintile for pre-1950 housing to 27% for those in the highest quintile for pre-1950 housing. The adjusted odds ratio was 1.64 for the highest quintile of poverty and 1.77 for the highest quintile of pre-1950 housing. The findings of this large, statewide study demonstrate the powerful impact of where children live on the risk of lead poisoning. The findings have important implications for understanding the problem of lead poisoning and for planning primary prevention programs.