RESUMEN
Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two-parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain-hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude-longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.
RESUMEN
GeoGateway (http://geo-gateway.org) is a web-based interface for analysis and modeling of geodetic imaging data and to support response to related disasters. Geodetic imaging data product currently supported by GeoGateway include Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) daily position time series and derived velocities and displacements and airborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) from NASA's UAVSAR platform. GeoGateway allows users to layer data products in a web map interface and extract information from various tools. Extracted products can be downloaded for further analysis. GeoGateway includes overlays of California fault traces, seismicity from user selected search parameters, and user supplied map files. GeoGateway also provides earthquake nowcasts and hazard maps as well as products created for related response to natural disasters. A user guide is present in the GeoGateway interface. The GeoGateway development team is also growing the user base through workshops, webinars, and video tutorials. GeoGateway is used in the classroom and for research by experts and non-experts including by students.
RESUMEN
We use UAVSAR interferograms to characterize fault slip, triggered by the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake on the 1 San Andreas Fault in the Coachella Valley providing comprehensive maps of short-term geodetic surface deformation that complement in situ measurements. Creepmeters and geological mapping of fault offsets on Durmid Hill recorded 4 and 8 mm of average triggered slip respectively on the fault, in contrast to radar views that reveal significant off-fault dextral deformation averaging 20 mm. Unlike slip in previous triggered slip events on the southernmost San Andreas fault, dextral shear in 2010 is not confined to transpressional hills in the Coachella valley. Edge detection and gradient estimation applied to the 50-m-sampled interferogram data identify the location (to 20 m) and local strike (to <4°) of secondary surface ruptures. Transverse curve fitting applied to these local detections provides local estimates of the radar-projected dextral slip and a parameter indicating the transverse width of the slip, which we equate with the depth of subsurface shear. These estimates are partially validated by fault-transverse interferogram profiles generated using the GeoGateway UAVSAR tool, and appear consistent for radar-projected slip greater than about 5 mm. An unexpected finding is that creep and triggered slip on the San Andreas fault terminate in the shallow subsurface below a surface shear zone that resists the simple expression of aseismic fault slip. We introduce the notion of a surface locking depth above which fault slip is manifest as distributed shear, and evaluate its depth as 6-27 m.