Epigenome-wide meta-analysis of BMI in nine cohorts: Examining the utility of epigenetically predicted BMI.

This study sought to examine the association between DNA methylation and body mass index (BMI) and the potential of BMI-associated cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites to provide information about metabolic health. We pooled summary statistics from six trans-ethnic epigenome-wide association studies (EWASs) of BMI representing nine cohorts (n = 17,034), replicated these findings in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI, n = 4,822), and developed an epigenetic prediction score of BMI. In the pooled EWASs, 1,265 CpG sites were associated with BMI (p < 1E-7) and 1,238 replicated in the WHI (FDR < 0.05). We performed several stratified analyses to examine whether these associations differed between individuals of European and African descent, as defined by self-reported race/ethnicity. We found that five CpG sites had a significant interaction with BMI by race/ethnicity. To examine the utility of the significant CpG sites in predicting BMI, we used elastic net regression to predict log-normalized BMI in the WHI (80% training/20% testing). This model found that 397 sites could explain 32% of the variance in BMI in the WHI test set. Individuals whose methylome-predicted BMI overestimated their BMI (high epigenetic BMI) had significantly higher glucose and triglycerides and lower HDL cholesterol and LDL cholesterol compared to accurately predicted BMI. Individuals whose methylome-predicted BMI underestimated their BMI (low epigenetic BMI) had significantly higher HDL cholesterol and lower glucose and triglycerides. This study confirmed 553 and identified 685 CpG sites associated with BMI. Participants with high epigenetic BMI had poorer metabolic health, suggesting that the overestimation may be driven in part by cardiometabolic derangements characteristic of metabolic syndrome.

Dietary flavanols restore hippocampal-dependent memory in older adults with lower diet quality and lower habitual flavanol consumption.

Dietary flavanols are food constituents found in certain fruits and vegetables that have been linked to cognitive aging. Previous studies suggested that consumption of dietary flavanols might specifically be associated with the hippocampal-dependent memory component of cognitive aging and that memory benefits of a flavanol intervention might depend on habitual diet quality. Here, we tested these hypotheses in the context of a large-scale study of 3,562 older adults, who were randomly assigned to a 3-y intervention of cocoa extract (500 mg of cocoa flavanols per day) or a placebo [(COcoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study) COSMOS-Web, NCT04582617]. Using the alternative Healthy Eating Index in all participants and a urine-based biomarker of flavanol intake in a subset of participants [n = 1,361], we show that habitual flavanol consumption and diet quality at baseline are positively and selectively correlated with hippocampal-dependent memory. While the prespecified primary end point testing for an intervention-related improvement in memory in all participants after 1 y was not statistically significant, the flavanol intervention restored memory among participants in lower tertiles of habitual diet quality or habitual flavanol consumption. Increases in the flavanol biomarker over the course of the trial were associated with improving memory. Collectively, our results allow dietary flavanols to be considered in the context of a depletion-repletion paradigm and suggest that low flavanol consumption can act as a driver of the hippocampal-dependent component of cognitive aging.

Proteome-wide association study using cis and trans variants and applied to blood cell and lipid-related traits in the Women's Health Initiative study.

In most Proteome-Wide Association Studies (PWAS), variants near the protein-coding gene (±1 Mb), also known as cis single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), are used to predict protein levels, which are then tested for association with phenotypes. However, proteins can be regulated through variants outside of the cis region. An intermediate GWAS step to identify protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) allows for the inclusion of trans SNPs outside the cis region in protein-level prediction models. Here, we assess the prediction of 540 proteins in 1002 individuals from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), split equally into a GWAS set, an elastic net training set, and a testing set. We compared the testing r2 between measured and predicted protein levels using this proposed approach, to the testing r2 using only cis SNPs. The two methods usually resulted in similar testing r2, but some proteins showed a significant increase in testing r2 with our method. For example, for cartilage acidic protein 1, the testing r2 increased from 0.101 to 0.351. We also demonstrate reproducible findings for predicted protein association with lipid and blood cell traits in WHI participants without proteomics data and in UK Biobank utilizing our PWAS weights.

Systolic Blood Pressure and Survival to Very Old Age: Results From the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and longevity is not fully understood. We aimed to determine which SBP levels in women ≥65 years of age with or without blood pressure medication were associated with the highest probability of surviving to 90 years of age. METHODS: The study population consisted of 16 570 participants enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative who were eligible to survive to 90 years of age by February 28, 2020, without a history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or cancer. Blood pressure was measured at baseline (1993 through 1998) and then annually through 2005. The outcome was defined as survival to 90 years of age with follow-up. Absolute probabilities of surviving to 90 years of age were estimated for all combinations of SBP and age using generalized additive logistic regression modeling. The SBP that maximized survival was estimated for each age, and a 95% CI was generated. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 19.8 years, 9723 of 16 570 women (59%) survived to 90 years of age. Women with an SBP between 110 and 130 mm Hg at attained ages of 65, 70, 75, and 80 years had a 38% (95% CI, 34%-48%), 54% (52%-56%), 66% (64%-67%), or 75% (73%-78%) absolute probability to survive to 90 years of age, respectively. The probability of surviving to 90 years of age was lower for greater SBP levels. Women at the attained age of 80 years with 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, or 100% time in therapeutic range (defined as an SBP between 110 and 130 mm Hg) had a 66% (64%-69%), 68% (67%-70%), 71% (69%-72%), 73% (71%-74%), 75% (72%-77%), or 77% (74%-79%) absolute survival probability to 90 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: For women >65 years of age with low cardiovascular disease and other chronic disease risk, an SBP level <130 mm Hg was found to be associated with longevity. These findings reinforce current guidelines targeting an SBP target <130 mm Hg in older women.

Supplemental Vitamin D and Incident Fractures in Midlife and Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D supplements are widely recommended for bone health in the general population, but data on whether they prevent fractures have been inconsistent. METHODS: In an ancillary study of the Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial (VITAL), we tested whether supplemental vitamin D3 would result in a lower risk of fractures than placebo. VITAL was a two-by-two factorial, randomized, controlled trial that investigated whether supplemental vitamin D3 (2000 IU per day), n-3 fatty acids (1 g per day), or both would prevent cancer and cardiovascular disease in men 50 years of age or older and women 55 years of age or older in the United States. Participants were not recruited on the basis of vitamin D deficiency, low bone mass, or osteoporosis. Incident fractures were reported by participants on annual questionnaires and adjudicated by centralized medical-record review. The primary end points were incident total, nonvertebral, and hip fractures. Proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the treatment effect in intention-to-treat analyses. RESULTS: Among 25,871 participants (50.6% women [13,085 of 25,871] and 20.2% Black [5106 of 25,304]), we confirmed 1991 incident fractures in 1551 participants over a median follow-up of 5.3 years. Supplemental vitamin D3, as compared with placebo, did not have a significant effect on total fractures (which occurred in 769 of 12,927 participants in the vitamin D group and in 782 of 12,944 participants in the placebo group; hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89 to 1.08; P = 0.70), nonvertebral fractures (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.07; P = 0.50), or hip fractures (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.70 to 1.47; P = 0.96). There was no modification of the treatment effect according to baseline characteristics, including age, sex, race or ethnic group, body-mass index, or serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels. There were no substantial between-group differences in adverse events as assessed in the parent trial. CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D3 supplementation did not result in a significantly lower risk of fractures than placebo among generally healthy midlife and older adults who were not selected for vitamin D deficiency, low bone mass, or osteoporosis. (Funded by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases; VITAL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01704859.).

24-Hour Urinary Sodium and Potassium Excretion and Cardiovascular Risk.

BACKGROUND: The relation between sodium intake and cardiovascular disease remains controversial, owing in part to inaccurate assessment of sodium intake. Assessing 24-hour urinary excretion over a period of multiple days is considered to be an accurate method. METHODS: We included individual-participant data from six prospective cohorts of generally healthy adults; sodium and potassium excretion was assessed with the use of at least two 24-hour urine samples per participant. The primary outcome was a cardiovascular event (coronary revascularization or fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke). We analyzed each cohort using consistent methods and combined the results using a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 10,709 participants, who had a mean (±SD) age of 51.5±12.6 years and of whom 54.2% were women, 571 cardiovascular events were ascertained during a median study follow-up of 8.8 years (incidence rate, 5.9 per 1000 person-years). The median 24-hour urinary sodium excretion was 3270 mg (10th to 90th percentile, 2099 to 4899). Higher sodium excretion, lower potassium excretion, and a higher sodium-to-potassium ratio were all associated with a higher cardiovascular risk in analyses that were controlled for confounding factors (P≤0.005 for all comparisons). In analyses that compared quartile 4 of the urinary biomarker (highest) with quartile 1 (lowest), the hazard ratios were 1.60 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 2.14) for sodium excretion, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.91) for potassium excretion, and 1.62 (95% CI, 1.25 to 2.10) for the sodium-to-potassium ratio. Each daily increment of 1000 mg in sodium excretion was associated with an 18% increase in cardiovascular risk (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.29), and each daily increment of 1000 mg in potassium excretion was associated with an 18% decrease in risk (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Higher sodium and lower potassium intakes, as measured in multiple 24-hour urine samples, were associated in a dose-response manner with a higher cardiovascular risk. These findings may support reducing sodium intake and increasing potassium intake from current levels. (Funded by the American Heart Association and the National Institutes of Health.).

Age at Menopause, Leukocyte Telomere Length, and Coronary Artery Disease in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: Premature menopause is a risk factor for accelerated cardiovascular aging, but underlying mechanisms remain incompletely understood. This study investigated the role of leukocyte telomere length (LTL), a marker of cellular aging and genomic instability, in the association of premature menopause with cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Participants from the UK Biobank and Women's Health Initiative with complete reproductive history and LTL measurements were included. Primary analyses tested the association between age at menopause and LTL using multivariable-adjusted linear regression. Secondary analyses stratified women by history of gynecologic surgery. Mendelian randomization was used to infer causal relationships between LTL and age at natural menopause. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression and mediation analyses tested the joint associations of premature menopause and LTL with incident coronary artery disease. RESULTS: This study included 130 254 postmenopausal women (UK Biobank: n=122 224; Women's Health Initiative: n=8030), of whom 4809 (3.7%) had experienced menopause before age 40. Earlier menopause was associated with shorter LTL (meta-analyzed ß=-0.02 SD/5 years of earlier menopause [95% CI, -0.02 to -0.01]; P=7.2×10-12). This association was stronger and significant in both cohorts for women with natural/spontaneous menopause (meta-analyzed ß=-0.04 SD/5 years of earlier menopause [95% CI, -0.04 to -0.03]; P<2.2×10-16) and was independent of hormone therapy use. Mendelian randomization supported a causal association of shorter genetically predicted LTL with earlier age at natural menopause. LTL and age at menopause were independently associated with incident coronary artery disease, and mediation analyses indicated small but significant mediation effects of LTL in the association of menopausal age with coronary artery disease. CONCLUSIONS: Earlier age at menopause is associated with shorter LTL, especially among women with natural menopause. Accelerated telomere shortening may contribute to the heightened cardiovascular risk associated with premature menopause.

Association of improved air quality with lower dementia risk in older women.

Late-life ambient air pollution is a risk factor for brain aging, but it remains unknown if improved air quality (AQ) lowers dementia risk. We studied a geographically diverse cohort of older women dementia free at baseline in 2008 to 2012 (n = 2,239, aged 74 to 92). Incident dementia was centrally adjudicated annually. Yearly mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were estimated using regionalized national universal kriging models and averaged over the 3-y period before baseline (recent exposure) and 10 y earlier (remote exposure). Reduction from remote to recent exposures was used as the indicator of improved AQ. Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) for dementia risk associated with AQ measures were estimated, adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics. We identified 398 dementia cases during follow up (median = 6.1 y). PM2.5 and NO2 reduced significantly over the 10 y before baseline. Larger AQ improvement was associated with reduced dementia risks (HRPM2.5 0.80 per 1.78 µg/m3, 95% CI 0.71-0.91; HRNO2 0.80 per 3.91 parts per billion, 95% CI 0.71-0.90), equivalent to the lower risk observed in women 2.4 y younger at baseline. Higher PM2.5 at baseline was associated with higher dementia risk (HRPM2.5 1.16 per 2.90 µg/m3, 95% CI 0.98-1.38), but the lower dementia risk associated with improved AQ remained after further adjusting for recent exposure. The observed associations did not substantially differ by age, education, geographic region, Apolipoprotein E e4 genotypes, or cardiovascular risk factors. Long-term AQ improvement in late life was associated with lower dementia risk in older women.

Long-Term Effect of Randomization to Calcium and Vitamin D Supplementation on Health in Older Women : Postintervention Follow-up of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Although calcium and vitamin D (CaD) supplementation may affect chronic disease in older women, evidence of long-term effects on health outcomes is limited. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate long-term health outcomes among postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative CaD trial. DESIGN: Post hoc analysis of long-term postintervention follow-up of the 7-year randomized intervention trial of CaD. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00000611). SETTING: A multicenter (n = 40) trial across the United States. PARTICIPANTS: 36 282 postmenopausal women with no history of breast or colorectal cancer. INTERVENTION: Random 1:1 assignment to 1000 mg of calcium carbonate (400 mg of elemental calcium) with 400 IU of vitamin D3 daily or placebo. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of colorectal, invasive breast, and total cancer; disease-specific and all-cause mortality; total cardiovascular disease (CVD); and hip fracture by randomization assignment (through December 2020). Analyses were stratified on personal supplement use. RESULTS: For women randomly assigned to CaD versus placebo, a 7% reduction in cancer mortality was observed after a median cumulative follow-up of 22.3 years (1817 vs. 1943 deaths; hazard ratio [HR], 0.93 [95% CI, 0.87 to 0.99]), along with a 6% increase in CVD mortality (2621 vs. 2420 deaths; HR, 1.06 [CI, 1.01 to 1.12]). There was no overall effect on other measures, including all-cause mortality (7834 vs. 7748 deaths; HR, 1.00 [CI, 0.97 to 1.03]). Estimates for cancer incidence varied widely when stratified by whether participants reported supplement use before randomization, whereas estimates on mortality did not vary, except for CVD mortality. LIMITATION: Hip fracture and CVD outcomes were available on only a subset of participants, and effects of calcium versus vitamin D versus joint supplementation could not be disentangled. CONCLUSION: Calcium and vitamin D supplements seemed to reduce cancer mortality and increase CVD mortality after more than 20 years of follow-up among postmenopausal women, with no effect on all-cause mortality. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

Discovery and validation of plasma, saliva and multi-fluid plasma-saliva metabolomic scores predicting insulin resistance and diabetes progression or regression among Puerto Rican adults.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Many studies have examined the relationship between plasma metabolites and type 2 diabetes progression, but few have explored saliva and multi-fluid metabolites. METHODS: We used LC/MS to measure plasma (n=1051) and saliva (n=635) metabolites among Puerto Rican adults from the San Juan Overweight Adults Longitudinal Study. We used elastic net regression to identify plasma, saliva and multi-fluid plasma-saliva metabolomic scores predicting baseline HOMA-IR in a training set (n=509) and validated these scores in a testing set (n=340). We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate HRs for the association of baseline metabolomic scores predicting insulin resistance with incident type 2 diabetes (n=54) and prediabetes (characterised by impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glucose and/or high HbA1c) (n=130) at 3 years, along with regression from prediabetes to normoglycaemia (n=122), adjusting for traditional diabetes-related risk factors. RESULTS: Plasma, saliva and multi-fluid plasma-saliva metabolomic scores predicting insulin resistance included highly weighted metabolites from fructose, tyrosine, lipid and amino acid metabolism. Each SD increase in the plasma (HR 1.99 [95% CI 1.18, 3.38]; p=0.01) and multi-fluid (1.80 [1.06, 3.07]; p=0.03) metabolomic scores was associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes. The saliva metabolomic score was associated with incident prediabetes (1.48 [1.17, 1.86]; p=0.001). All three metabolomic scores were significantly associated with lower likelihood of regressing from prediabetes to normoglycaemia in models adjusting for adiposity (HRs 0.72 for plasma, 0.78 for saliva and 0.72 for multi-fluid), but associations were attenuated when adjusting for lipid and glycaemic measures. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The plasma metabolomic score predicting insulin resistance was more strongly associated with incident type 2 diabetes than the saliva metabolomic score. Only the saliva metabolomic score was associated with incident prediabetes.

Portfolio Diet Score and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: Findings From 3 Prospective Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: The plant-based Portfolio dietary pattern includes recognized cholesterol-lowering foods (ie, plant protein, nuts, viscous fiber, phytosterols, and plant monounsaturated fats) shown to improve several cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in randomized controlled trials. However, there is limited evidence on the role of long-term adherence to the diet and CVD risk. The primary objective was to examine the relationship between the Portfolio Diet Score (PDS) and the risk of total CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke. METHODS: We prospectively followed 73 924 women in the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2016), 92 346 women in the Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2017), and 43 970 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2016) without CVD or cancer at baseline. Diet was assessed using validated food frequency questionnaires at baseline and every 4 years using a PDS that positively ranks plant protein (legumes), nuts and seeds, viscous fiber sources, phytosterols (mg/day), and plant monounsaturated fat sources, and negatively ranks foods high in saturated fat and cholesterol. RESULTS: During up to 30 years of follow-up, 16 917 incident CVD cases, including 10 666 CHD cases and 6473 strokes, were documented. After multivariable adjustment for lifestyle factors and a modified Alternate Healthy Eating Index (excluding overlapping components), comparing the highest with the lowest quintile, participants with a higher PDS had a lower risk of total CVD (pooled hazard ratio [HR], 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81-0.92]; Ptrend<0.001), CHD (pooled HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.80-0.93]; Ptrend=0.0001), and stroke (pooled HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.78-0.95]; Ptrend=0.0003). In addition, a 25-percentile higher PDS was associated with a lower risk of total CVD (pooled HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.95]), CHD (pooled HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.88-0.95]), and stroke (pooled HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87-0.96]). Results remained consistent across sensitivity and most subgroup analyses, and there was no evidence of departure from linearity for CVD, CHD, or stroke. In a subset of participants, a higher PDS was associated with a more favorable blood lipid and inflammatory profile. CONCLUSIONS: The PDS was associated with a lower risk of CVD, including CHD and stroke, and a more favorable blood lipid and inflammatory profile, in 3 large prospective cohorts.

Effect of Daily Vitamin D Supplementation on Risk of Upper Respiratory Infection in Older Adults: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Among individuals with vitamin D deficiency, daily vitamin D supplementation appears to lower risk of acute respiratory infection. However, recent trials, in different populations and using different regimens, have yielded null results. We investigated the effect of daily vitamin D supplementation (vs placebo) on risk of upper respiratory infection (URI) in older adults. METHODS: The VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of supplemental vitamin D and/or omega-3 fatty acids in generally healthy men (age ≥50 years) and women (age ≥55 years). This prespecified analysis focuses on vitamin D3 (2000 IU/day) versus placebo in the 15 804 (61%) participants with baseline serum total 25-hydroxyvitamin D level. The primary outcome was self-report of a recent URI at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 68 years and 51% were women; 76% were non-Hispanic White, 16% Black, and 8% other race/ethnicity. The mean 25-hydroxyvitamin D level at baseline was 31 (standard deviation, 10) ng/mL, with <12 ng/mL in 2.4%. The overall effect of vitamin D supplementation on recent URI was nonsignificant (odds ratio [OR], 0.96 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .86-1.06]). In the prespecified subgroup of primary interest (<12 ng/mL and denied taking concurrent vitamin D), which had only 255 participants, vitamin D supplementation was nonsignificant (OR, 0.60 [95% CI, .28-1.30]). Statistical power to assess effect modification in other subgroups was limited. CONCLUSIONS: In older adults not selected for vitamin D deficiency, supplemental vitamin D did not lower URI risk overall. Whether effects differ in subgroups requires further study. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01169259.

Omega-3 Blood Levels and Stroke Risk: A Pooled and Harmonized Analysis of 183 291 Participants From 29 Prospective Studies.

BACKGROUND: The effect of marine omega-3 PUFAs on risk of stroke remains unclear. METHODS: We investigated the associations between circulating and tissue omega-3 PUFA levels and incident stroke (total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic) in 29 international prospective cohorts. Each site conducted a de novo individual-level analysis using a prespecified analytical protocol with defined exposures, covariates, analytical methods, and outcomes; the harmonized data from the studies were then centrally pooled. Multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95% CIs across omega-3 PUFA quintiles were computed for each stroke outcome. RESULTS: Among 183 291 study participants, there were 10 561 total strokes, 8220 ischemic strokes, and 1142 hemorrhagic strokes recorded over a median of 14.3 years follow-up. For eicosapentaenoic acid, comparing quintile 5 (Q5, highest) with quintile 1 (Q1, lowest), total stroke incidence was 17% lower (HR, 0.83 [CI, 0.76-0.91]; P<0.0001), and ischemic stroke was 18% lower (HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.74-0.91]; P<0.0001). For docosahexaenoic acid, comparing Q5 with Q1, there was a 12% lower incidence of total stroke (HR, 0.88 [CI, 0.81-0.96]; P=0.0001) and a 14% lower incidence of ischemic stroke (HR, 0.86 [CI, 0.78-0.95]; P=0.0001). Neither eicosapentaenoic acid nor docosahexaenoic acid was associated with a risk for hemorrhagic stroke. These associations were not modified by either baseline history of AF or prevalent CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Higher omega-3 PUFA levels are associated with lower risks of total and ischemic stroke but have no association with hemorrhagic stroke.

Breast cancer incidence and mortality by metabolic syndrome and obesity: The Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: In the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized trial, dietary intervention significantly reduced breast cancer mortality, especially in women with more metabolic syndrome (MetS) components. Therefore, this study investigated the associations of MetS and obesity with postmenopausal breast cancer after long-term follow-up in the WHI clinical trials. METHODS: A total of 68,132 postmenopausal women, without prior breast cancer and with normal mammogram, were entered into WHI randomized clinical trials; 63,330 women with an entry MetS score comprised the study population. At entry, body mass index (BMI) was determined; MetS score (0, 1-2, and 3-4) included the following: (1) high waist circumference (≥88 cm), (2) high blood pressure (systolic ≥130 mm Hg and/or diastolic ≥85 mm Hg, or hypertension history), (3) high-cholesterol history, and (4) diabetes history. Study outcomes included breast cancer incidence, breast cancer mortality, deaths after breast cancer, and results by hormone receptor status. RESULTS: After a >20-year mortality follow-up, a higher MetS score (3-4), adjusted for BMI, was significantly associated with more poor prognosis, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, progesterone receptor (PR)-negative cancers (p = .03), 53% more deaths after breast cancer (p < .001), and 44% higher breast cancer mortality (p = .03). Obesity status, adjusted for MetS score, was significantly associated with more good prognosis, ER-positive, PR-positive cancers (p < .001), more total breast cancers (p < .001), and more deaths after breast cancer (p < .001), with higher breast cancer mortality only in women with severe obesity (BMI, ≥35 kg/m2; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: MetS and obesity status have independent, but differential, adverse associations with breast cancer receptor subtypes and breast cancer mortality risk. Both represent separate targets for breast cancer prediction and prevention strategies.

Ductal carcinoma in situ and cause-specific mortality among younger and older postmenopausal women: the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Whether DCIS is associated with higher breast cancer-specific and all-cause mortality is unclear with few studies in older women. Therefore, we examined DCIS and breast cancer-specific, cardiovascular (CVD)-specific, and all-cause mortality among Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Clinical Trial participants overall and by age (< 70 versus ≥ 70 years). METHODS: Of 68,132 WHI participants, included were 781 postmenopausal women with incident DCIS and 781 matched controls. Serial screening mammography was mandated with high adherence. DCIS cases were confirmed by central medical record review. Adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Kaplan Meier (KM) plots were used to assess 10-year and 20-year mortality rates. RESULTS: After 20.3 years total, and 13.2 years median post-diagnosis follow-up, compared to controls, DCIS was associated with higher breast cancer-specific mortality (HR 3.29; CI = 1.32-8.22, P = 0.01). The absolute difference in 20-year breast cancer mortality was 1.2% without DCIS and 3.4% after DCIS, log-rank P = 0.026. Findings were similar by age (< 70 versus ≥ 70 years) with no interaction (P interaction = 0.80). Incident DCIS was not associated with CVD-specific mortality (HR 0.77; CI-0.54-1.09, P = 0.14) or with all-cause mortality (HR 0.96; CI = 0.80-1.16, P = 0.68) with similar findings by age. CONCLUSIONS: In postmenopausal women, incident DCIS was associated with over three-fold higher breast cancer-specific mortality, with similar findings in younger and older postmenopausal women. These finding suggest caution in using age to adjust DCIS clinical management or research strategies.

Randomized trials of estrogen-alone and breast cancer incidence: a meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: In the Women's Health initiative (WHI) randomized clinical trial, conjugated equine estrogen (CEE)-alone significantly reduced breast cancer incidence (P = 0.005). As cohort studies had opposite findings, other randomized clinical trials were identified to conduct a meta-analysis of estrogen-alone influence on breast cancer incidence. METHODS: We conducted literature searches on randomized trials and: estrogen, hormone therapy, and breast cancer, and searches from a prior meta-analysis and reviews. In the meta-analysis, for trials with published relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), each log-RR was multiplied by weight = 1/V, where V = variance of the log-RR, and V was derived from the corresponding 95% CI. For smaller trials with only breast cancer numbers, the corresponding log-RR = (O - E)/weight, where O is the observed case number in the oestrogen-alone group and E the corresponding expected case number, E = nP. RESULTS: Findings from 10 randomized trials included 14,282 participants and 591 incident breast cancers. In 9 smaller trials, with 1.2% (24 of 2029) vs 2.2% (33 of 1514) randomized to estrogen-alone vs placebo (open label, one trial) (RR 0.65 95% CI 0.38-1.11, P = 0.12). For 5 trials evaluating estradiol formulations, RR = 0.63 95% CI 0.34-1.16, P = 0.15. Combining the 10 trials, 3.6% (262 of 7339) vs 4.7% (329 of 6943) randomized to estrogen-alone vs placebo (overall RR 0.77 95% CI 0.65-0.91, P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: The totality of randomized clinical trial evidence supports a conclusion that estrogen-alone use significantly reduces breast cancer incidence.

Associations of tubal ligation and hysterectomy with serum androgen and estrogen metabolites among postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

PURPOSE: Hysterectomy is associated with subsequent changes in circulating hormone levels, but the evidence of an association for tubal ligation is unclear. We evaluated whether circulating concentrations of androgens and estrogens differ by tubal ligation or hysterectomy status in postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI)-Observational Study (OS). METHODS: Serum androgens and estrogens were measured in 920 postmenopausal women who did not use menopausal hormone therapy at the time of blood draw, of whom 139 self-reported a history of tubal ligation and 102 reported hysterectomy (with intact ovaries). Geometric mean hormone concentrations (GMs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with a history of tubal ligation or hysterectomy (ever/never), as well as time since procedures, were estimated using adjusted linear regression with inverse probability of sampling weights to account for selection. RESULTS: Circulating levels of 12 androgen/androgen metabolites and 20 estrogen/estrogen metabolites did not differ by tubal ligation status. Among women reporting prior hysterectomy compared to women without hysterectomy, we observed lower levels of several androgens (e.g., testosterone (nmol/L): GMyes 0.46 [95% CI:0.37-0.57] vs. GMno 0.62 [95% CI:0.53-0.72]) and higher levels of estrogen metabolites, for example, 2-hydroxyestrone-3-methyl ether (GMyes 11.1 [95% CI:8.95-13.9] pmol/L vs. GMno 8.70 [95% CI:7.38-10.3]) and 4-methoxyestrone (GMyes 6.50 [95% CI:5.05-8.37] vs. GMno 4.92 [95% CI:4.00-6.05]). CONCLUSION: While we did not observe associations between prior tubal ligation and postmenopausal circulating hormone levels, our findings support that prior hysterectomy was associated with lower circulating testosterone levels and higher levels of some estrogen metabolites, which may have implications for future hormone-related disease risks.

The association between reproductive history and abdominal adipose tissue among postmenopausal women: results from the Women's Health Initiative.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the association between reproductive health history (e.g. age at menarche, menopause, reproductive lifespan) with abdominal adiposity in postmenopausal women? SUMMARY ANSWER: Higher visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) tissue levels were observed among women with earlier menarche, earlier menopause, and greater parity. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Postmenopausal women are predisposed to accumulation of VAT and SAT. Reproductive health variables are known predictors of overall obesity status in women, defined by BMI. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This study is a secondary analysis of data collected from the baseline visit of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI). The WHI is a large prospective study of postmenopausal women, including both a randomized trial and observational study. There were 10 184 women included in this analysis. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Data were collected from a reproductive health history questionnaire, dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scans, and anthropometric measures at WHI baseline. Reproductive history was measured via self-report, and included age at menarche, variables related to pregnancy, and age at menopause. Reproductive lifespan was calculated as age at menopause minus age at menarche. Statistical analyses included descriptive analyses and multivariable linear regression models to examine the association between reproductive history with VAT, SAT, total body fat, and BMI. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Women who reported early menarche (<10 years) or early menopause (<40 years) had the highest levels of VAT. Adjusted multivariable linear regression results demonstrate women who experienced menarche >15 years had 23 cm2 less VAT (95% CI: -31.4, -14.4) and 47 cm2 less SAT (95% CI: -61.8, -33.4) than women who experienced menarche at age 10 years or earlier. A similar pattern was observed for age at menopause: compared to women who experienced menopause <40 years, menopause at 50-55 years was associated with 19.3 cm2 (95% CI: -25.4, -13.3) less VAT and 27.4 cm2 (-29.6, 10.3) less SAT. High parity (>3 pregnancies) was also associated with VAT and SAT. For example, adjusted beta coefficients for VAT were 8.36 (4.33, 12.4) and 17.9 (12.6, 23.2) comparing three to four pregnancies with the referent, one to two pregnancies. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The WHI reproductive health history questionnaire may be subject to poor recall owing to a long look-back window. Residual confounding may be present given lack of data on early life characteristics, such as maternal and pre-menarche characteristics. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study contributes to our understanding of reproductive lifespan, including menarche and menopause, as an important predictor of late-life adiposity in women. Reproductive health has also been recognized as a sentinel marker for chronic disease in late life. Given established links between adiposity and cardiometabolic outcomes, this research has implications for future research, clinical practice, and public health policy that makes use of reproductive health history as an opportunity for chronic disease prevention. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): HRB and AOO are supported by the National Institute of Health National Institute of Aging (R01AG055018-04). JWB reports royalties from 'ACSM'S Body Composition Assessment Book' and consulting fees from the WHI. The remaining authors have no competing interests to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Type 2 diabetes metabolomics score and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Several metabolites are individually related to incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. We prospectively evaluated a novel T2D-metabolite pattern with a risk of progression to T2D among high-risk women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). METHODS: The longitudinal Nurses' Health Study II cohort enroled 116,429 women in 1989 and collected blood samples from 1996 to 1999. We profiled plasma metabolites in 175 incident T2D cases and 175 age-matched controls, all with a history of GDM before the blood draw. We derived a metabolomics score from 21 metabolites previously associated with incident T2D in the published literature by scoring according to the participants' quintile (1-5 points) of each metabolite. We modelled the T2D metabolomics score categorically in quartiles and continuously per 1 standard deviation (SD) with the risk of incident T2D using conditional logistic regression models adjusting for body mass index at the blood draw, and other established T2D risk factors. RESULTS: The percentage of women progressing to T2D ranged from 10% in the bottom T2D metabolomics score quartile to 78% in the highest score quartile. Adjusting for established T2D risk factors, women in the highest quartile had more than a 20-fold greater diabetes risk than women in the lowest quartile (odds ratios [OR] = 23.1 [95% CI = 8.6, 62.1]; p for trend<0.001). The continuous T2D metabolomics score was strongly and positively associated with incident T2D (adjusted OR = 2.7 per SD [95% CI = 1.9, 3.7], p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A pattern of plasma metabolites among high-risk women is associated with a markedly elevated risk of progression to T2D later in life.

Adverse pregnancy outcomes and risk of type 2 diabetes in postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Although gestational diabetes mellitus and delivering high-birthweight infants are known to predict a higher risk of future type 2 diabetes mellitus, the association of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and other adverse pregnancy outcomes with type 2 diabetes mellitus is not well established. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the associations between different types of adverse pregnancy outcomes and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus among postmenopausal women. STUDY DESIGN: The Women's Health Initiative, a nationwide cohort of postmenopausal women, collected self-reported history of adverse pregnancy outcomes, including gestational diabetes mellitus, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, preterm birth, and delivering low- birthweight (<2500 g) or high-birthweight (>4500 g) infants. Participants were followed up annually for self-reported incident type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with medication from baseline (1993-1998) to March 2021. This study used logistic regression to examine the associations of any and individual adverse pregnancy outcomes with diabetes mellitus. Stratified analyses were performed to assess effect modification by body mass index, race and ethnicity, education, parity, breastfeeding, and age at first birth. RESULTS: This analysis included 49,717 women without a history of diabetes mellitus at enrollment who had a least 1 pregnancy and responded to the questionnaire about adverse pregnancy outcomes. After adjusting for body mass index, demographic, lifestyle, and reproductive factors, gestational diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.94-2.63), high birthweight (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-1.44), and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (odds ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.30) were independently associated with higher odds of type 2 diabetes mellitus, whereas preterm birth and low birthweight were not associated with diabetes mellitus risk. A history of ≥2 adverse pregnancy outcomes was associated with higher odds of type 2 diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-1.88). This study further observed higher odds of type 2 diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 3.69; 95% confidence interval, 2.38-5.70) among women with a history of both gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy than those without any adverse pregnancy outcomes. CONCLUSION: Postmenopausal women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus, those delivering high-birthweight infants, or those with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are at risk of future type 2 diabetes mellitus. In addition, women with ≥2 conditions had an augmented risk and might be prioritized for screening and prevention efforts for type 2 diabetes mellitus.