Extreme elevations of donor-derived cell-free DNA increases the risk of chronic lung allograft dysfunction and death, even without clinical manifestations of disease.

BACKGROUND: Lung transplant recipients are traditionally monitored with pulmonary function testing (PFT) and lung biopsy to detect post-transplant complications and guide treatment. Plasma donor-derived cell free DNA (dd-cfDNA) is a novel molecular approach of assessing allograft injury, including subclinical allograft dysfunction. The aim of this study was to determine if episodes of extreme molecular injury (EMI) in lung transplant recipients increases the risk of chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) or death. METHODS: This multicenter prospective cohort study included 238 lung transplant recipients. Serial plasma samples were collected for dd-cfDNA measurement by shotgun sequencing. EMI was defined as a dd-cfDNA above the third quartile of levels observed for acute rejection (dd-cfDNA level of ≥5% occurring after 45 days post-transplant). EMI was categorized as Secondary if associated with co-existing acute rejection, infection or PFT decline; or Primary if not associated with these conditions. RESULTS: EMI developed in 16% of patients at a median 343.5 (IQR: 177.3-535.5) days post-transplant. Over 50% of EMI episodes were classified as Primary. EMI was associated with an increased risk of severe CLAD or death (HR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.26-6.22, p = 0.012). The risk remained consistent for the Primary EMI subgroup (HR: 2.34, 95% CI 1.18-4.85, p = 0.015). Time to first EMI episode was a significant predictor of the likelihood of developing CLAD or death (AUC=0.856, 95% CI=0.805-0.908, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Episodes of EMI in lung transplant recipients are often isolated and may not be detectable with traditional clinical monitoring approaches. EMI is associated with an increased risk of severe CLAD or death, independent of concomitant transplant complications.

Baseline Lung Allograft Dysfunction After Bilateral Lung Transplantation Is Associated With an Increased Risk of Death: Results From a Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background: A prior single-center, retrospective cohort study identified baseline lung allograft dysfunction (BLAD) as a risk factor for death in bilateral lung transplant recipients. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we test the association of BLAD with death in bilateral lung transplant recipients, identify clinical risk factors for BLAD, and assess its association with allograft injury on the molecular level. Methods: This multicenter, prospective cohort study included 173 bilateral lung transplant recipients that underwent serial pulmonary function testing and plasma collection for donor-derived cell-free DNA at prespecified time points. BLAD was defined as failure to achieve ≥80% predicted for both forced expiratory volume in 1 s and forced vital capacity after lung transplant, on 2 consecutive measurements at least 3 mo apart. Results: BLAD was associated with increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-3.69; P = 0.03) but not chronic lung allograft dysfunction alone (hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI, 0.87-2.95; P = 0.13). Recipient obesity (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.15-2.80; P = 0.04) and donor age (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05; P = 0.004) increased the risk of developing BLAD. Patients with BLAD did not demonstrate higher log10(donor-derived cell-free DNA) levels compared with no BLAD (slope [SE]: -0.0095 [0.0007] versus -0.0109 [0.0007]; P = 0.15). Conclusions: BLAD is associated with an increased risk of death following lung transplantation, representing an important posttransplant outcome with valuable prognostic significance; however, early allograft specific injury on the molecular level does not increase the risk of BLAD, supporting further mechanistic insight into disease pathophysiology.