Species diversity concurrently dilutes and amplifies transmission in a zoonotic host-pathogen system through competing mechanisms.

In this era of unprecedented biodiversity loss and increased zoonotic disease emergence, it is imperative to understand the effects of biodiversity on zoonotic pathogen dynamics in wildlife. Whether increasing biodiversity should lead to a decrease or increase in infection prevalence, termed the dilution and amplification effects, respectively, has been hotly debated in disease ecology. Sin Nombre hantavirus, which has an ∼35% mortality rate when it spills over into humans, occurs at a lower prevalence in the reservoir host, the North American deermouse, in areas with higher small mammal diversity-a dilution effect. However, the mechanism driving this relationship is not understood. Using a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics and a unique long-term, high-resolution, multisite dataset, it appears that the observed dilution effect is a result of increasing small-mammal diversity leading to decreased deermouse population density and, subsequently, prevalence (a result of density-dependent transmission). However, once density is taken into account, there is an increase in the transmission rate at sites with higher diversity-a component amplification effect. Therefore, dilution and amplification are occurring at the same time in the same host-pathogen system; there is a component amplification effect (increase in transmission rate), but overall a net dilution because the effect of diversity on reservoir host population density is stronger. These results suggest we should focus on how biodiversity affects individual mechanisms that drive prevalence and their relative strengths if we want to make generalizable predictions across host-pathogen systems.

Network analysis of host-virus communities in bats and rodents reveals determinants of cross-species transmission.

Bats are natural reservoirs of several important emerging viruses. Cross-species transmission appears to be quite common among bats, which may contribute to their unique reservoir potential. Therefore, understanding the importance of bats as reservoirs requires examining them in a community context rather than concentrating on individual species. Here, we use a network approach to identify ecological and biological correlates of cross-species virus transmission in bats and rodents, another important host group. We show that given our current knowledge the bat viral sharing network is more connected than the rodent network, suggesting viruses may pass more easily between bat species. We identify host traits associated with important reservoir species: gregarious bats are more likely to share more viruses and bats which migrate regionally are important for spreading viruses through the network. We identify multiple communities of viral sharing within bats and rodents and highlight potential species traits that can help guide studies of novel pathogen emergence.

Toward a Mechanistic Understanding of Environmentally Forced Zoonotic Disease Emergence: Sin Nombre Hantavirus.

Understanding the environmental drivers of zoonotic reservoir and human interactions is crucial to understanding disease risk, but these drivers are poorly predicted. We propose a mechanistic understanding of human-reservoir interactions, using hantavirus pulmonary syndrome as a case study. Crucial processes underpinning the disease's incidence remain poorly studied, including the connectivity among natural and peridomestic deer mouse host activity, virus transmission, and human exposure. We found that disease cases were greatest in arid states and declined exponentially with increasing precipitation. Within arid environments, relatively rare climatic conditions (e.g., El Niño) are associated with increased rainfall and reservoir abundance, producing more frequent virus transmission and host dispersal. We suggest that deer mice increase their occupancy of peridomestic structures during spring-summer, amplifying intraspecific transmission and human infection risk. Disease incidence in arid states may increase with predicted climatic changes. Mechanistic approaches incorporating reservoir behavior, reservoir-human interactions, and pathogen spillover could enhance our understanding of global hantavirus ecology, with applications to other directly transmitted zoonoses.

A comparison of bats and rodents as reservoirs of zoonotic viruses: are bats special?

Bats are the natural reservoirs of a number of high-impact viral zoonoses. We present a quantitative analysis to address the hypothesis that bats are unique in their propensity to host zoonotic viruses based on a comparison with rodents, another important host order. We found that bats indeed host more zoonotic viruses per species than rodents, and we identified life-history and ecological factors that promote zoonotic viral richness. More zoonotic viruses are hosted by species whose distributions overlap with a greater number of other species in the same taxonomic order (sympatry). Specifically in bats, there was evidence for increased zoonotic viral richness in species with smaller litters (one young), greater longevity and more litters per year. Furthermore, our results point to a new hypothesis to explain in part why bats host more zoonotic viruses per species: the stronger effect of sympatry in bats and more viruses shared between bat species suggests that interspecific transmission is more prevalent among bats than among rodents. Although bats host more zoonotic viruses per species, the total number of zoonotic viruses identified in bats (61) was lower than in rodents (68), a result of there being approximately twice the number of rodent species as bat species. Therefore, rodents should still be a serious concern as reservoirs of emerging viruses. These findings shed light on disease emergence and perpetuation mechanisms and may help lead to a predictive framework for identifying future emerging infectious virus reservoirs.

Sin Nombre hantavirus decreases survival of male deer mice.

How pathogens affect their hosts is a key question in infectious disease ecology, and it can have important influences on the spread and persistence of the pathogen. Sin Nombre virus (SNV) is the etiological agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans. A better understanding of SNV in its reservoir host, the deer mouse, could lead to improved predictions of the circulation and persistence of the virus in the mouse reservoir, and could help identify the factors that lead to increased human risk of HPS. Using mark-recapture statistical modeling on longitudinal data collected over 15 years, we found a 13.4% decrease in the survival of male deer mice with antibodies to SNV compared to uninfected mice (both male and female). There was also an additive effect of breeding condition, with a 21.3% decrease in survival for infected mice in breeding condition compared to uninfected, non-breeding mice. The data identified that transmission was consistent with density-dependent transmission, implying that there may be a critical host density below which SNV cannot persist. The notion of a critical host density coupled with the previously overlooked disease-induced mortality reported here contribute to a better understanding of why SNV often goes extinct locally and only seems to persist at the metapopulation scale, and why human spillover is episodic and hard to predict.

Isolation of genetically diverse Marburg viruses from Egyptian fruit bats.

In July and September 2007, miners working in Kitaka Cave, Uganda, were diagnosed with Marburg hemorrhagic fever. The likely source of infection in the cave was Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus) based on detection of Marburg virus RNA in 31/611 (5.1%) bats, virus-specific antibody in bat sera, and isolation of genetically diverse virus from bat tissues. The virus isolates were collected nine months apart, demonstrating long-term virus circulation. The bat colony was estimated to be over 100,000 animals using mark and re-capture methods, predicting the presence of over 5,000 virus-infected bats. The genetically diverse virus genome sequences from bats and miners closely matched. These data indicate common Egyptian fruit bats can represent a major natural reservoir and source of Marburg virus with potential for spillover into humans.

A temporal dilution effect: hantavirus infection in deer mice and the intermittent presence of voles in Montana.

The effect of intermittently occurring, non-reservoir host species on pathogen transmission and prevalence in a reservoir population is poorly understood. We investigated whether voles, Microtus spp., which occur intermittently, influenced estimated standing antibody prevalence (ESAP) to Sin Nombre hantavirus (SNV, Bunyaviridae: Hantavirus) among deer mice, Peromyscus maniculatus, whose populations are persistent. We used 14 years of data from central Montana to investigate whether ESAP among deer mice was related to vole presence or abundance while controlling for the relationship between deer mouse abundance and ESAP. We found a reduction in deer mouse ESAP associated with the presence of voles, independent of vole abundance. A number of studies have documented that geographic locations which support a higher host diversity can be associated with reductions in pathogen prevalence by a hypothesized dilution effect. We suggest a dilution effect may also occur in a temporal dimension at sites where host richness fluctuates. Preservation of host diversity and optimization of environmental conditions which promote occurrence of ephemeral species, such as voles, may result in a decreased ESAP to hantaviruses among reservoir hosts. Our results may extend to other zoonotic infectious diseases.

The effect of seasonality, density and climate on the population dynamics of Montana deer mice, important reservoir hosts for Sin Nombre hantavirus.

1. Since Sin Nombre virus was discovered in the U.S. in 1993, longitudinal studies of the rodent reservoir host, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) have demonstrated a qualitative correlation among mouse population dynamics and risk of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, indicating the importance of understanding deer mouse population dynamics for evaluating risk of HPS. 2. Using capture-mark-recapture statistical methods on a 15-year data set from Montana, we estimated deer mouse survival, maturation and recruitment rates and tested the relative importance of seasonality, population density and local climate in explaining temporal variation in deer mouse demography. 3. From these estimates, we designed a population model to simulate deer mouse population dynamics given climatic variables and compared the model to observed patterns. 4. Month, precipitation 5 months previously, temperature 5 months previously and to a lesser extent precipitation and temperature in the current month, were important in determining deer mouse survival. Month, the sum of precipitation over the last 4 months, and the sum of the temperature over the last 4 months were important in determining recruitment rates. Survival was more important in determining the growth rate of the population than recruitment. 5. While climatic drivers appear to have a complex influence on dynamics, our forecasts were good. Our quantitative model may allow public health officials to better predict increased human risk from basic climatic data.

Nipah virus infection in dogs, Malaysia, 1999.

The 1999 outbreak of Nipah virus encephalitis in humans and pigs in Peninsular Malaysia ended with the evacuation of humans and culling of pigs in the epidemic area. Serologic screening showed that, in the absence of infected pigs, dogs were not a secondary reservoir for Nipah virus.

The Ecology and Phylogeny of Hosts Drive the Enzootic Infection Cycles of Hantaviruses.

Hantaviruses (Family: Hantaviridae; genus: Orthohantavirus) and their associated human diseases occur globally and differ according to their geographic distribution. The structure of small mammal assemblages and phylogenetic relatedness among host species are suggested as strong drivers for the maintenance and spread of hantavirus infections in small mammals. We developed predictive models for hantavirus infection prevalence in rodent assemblages using defined ecological correlates from our current knowledge of hantavirus-host distributions to provide predictive models at the global and continental scale. We utilized data from published research between 1971-2014 and determined the biological and ecological characteristics of small mammal assemblages to predict the prevalence of hantavirus infections. These models are useful in predicting hantavirus disease outbreaks based on environmental and biological information obtained through the surveillance of rodents.

Policy and Science for Global Health Security: Shaping the Course of International Health.

The global burden of infectious diseases and the increased attention to natural, accidental, and deliberate biological threats has resulted in significant investment in infectious disease research. Translating the results of these studies to inform prevention, detection, and response efforts often can be challenging, especially if prior relationships and communications have not been established with decision-makers. Whatever scientific information is shared with decision-makers before, during, and after public health emergencies is highly dependent on the individuals or organizations who are communicating with policy-makers. This article briefly describes the landscape of stakeholders involved in information-sharing before and during emergencies. We identify critical gaps in translation of scientific expertise and results, and biosafety and biosecurity measures to public health policy and practice with a focus on One Health and zoonotic diseases. Finally, we conclude by exploring ways of improving communication and funding, both of which help to address the identified gaps. By leveraging existing scientific information (from both the natural and social sciences) in the public health decision-making process, large-scale outbreaks may be averted even in low-income countries.

Global Diversity and Distribution of Hantaviruses and Their Hosts.

Rodents represent 42% of the world's mammalian biodiversity encompassing 2,277 species populating every continent (except Antarctica) and are reservoir hosts for a wide diversity of disease agents. Thus, knowing the identity, diversity, host-pathogen relationships, and geographic distribution of rodent-borne zoonotic pathogens, is essential for predicting and mitigating zoonotic disease outbreaks. Hantaviruses are hosted by numerous rodent reservoirs. However, the diversity of rodents harboring hantaviruses is likely unknown because research is biased toward specific reservoir hosts and viruses. An up-to-date, systematic review covering all known rodent hosts is lacking. Herein, we document gaps in our knowledge of the diversity and distribution of rodent species that host hantaviruses. Of the currently recognized 681 cricetid, 730 murid, 61 nesomyid, and 278 sciurid species, we determined that 11.3, 2.1, 1.6, and 1.1%, respectively, have known associations with hantaviruses. The diversity of hantaviruses hosted by rodents and their distribution among host species supports a reassessment of the paradigm that each virus is associated with a single-host species. We examine these host-virus associations on a global taxonomic and geographical scale with emphasis on the rodent host diversity and distribution. Previous reviews have been centered on the viruses and not the mammalian hosts. Thus, we provide a perspective not previously addressed.

Two cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Randolph County, West Virginia: a coincidence of time and place?

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is caused by an infection with viruses of the genus Hantavirus in the western hemisphere. Rodent hosts of hantaviruses are present throughout the United States. In July 2004, two HPS case-patients were identified in Randolph County, WV: a wildlife science graduate student working locally and a Randolph County resident. We interviewed family members and colleagues, reviewed medical records, and conducted environmental studies at likely exposure sites. Small mammals were trapped, and blood, urine, and tissue samples were submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for laboratory analyses. These analyses confirmed that both patients were infected with Monongahela virus, a Sin Nombre hantavirus variant hosted by the Cloudland deer mouse, Peromyscus maniculatus nubiterrae. Other than one retrospectively diagnosed case in 1981, these are the first HPS cases reported in West Virginia. These cases emphasize the need to educate the public throughout the United States regarding risks and prevention measures for hantavirus infection.

Delayed density-dependent prevalence of Sin Nombre virus antibody in Montana deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and implications for human disease risk.

American hantaviruses cause a severe respiratory disease known as hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS). In the United States, Sin Nombre virus (SNV), carried by the deer mouse ( Peromyscus maniculatus), is the etiologic agent in the majority of HPS cases. The relationship between deer mouse population density and SNV infection prevalence in deer mice is poorly understood. Our purpose was to clarify this relationship by demonstrating the existence of delayed-density-dependent prevalence of SNV infection in populations of wild deer mice. We also explored the relationship between SNV infection in deer mouse populations and the incidence of human HPS. The study population was 3,616 deer mice captured on 10 mark-recapture grids in Montana during May and September, 1994-2004. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, we found a strong association between deer mouse population density in fall (September) and SNV antibody prevalence in deer mice the following spring (May). Other characteristics associated with SNV infection in deer mice in spring were: (1) presence of at least one infected deer mouse in the population the previous fall, (2) male gender, (3) adult age class, (4) presence of scars, (5) grassland and logged habitats, and (6) elevations below 1,300 m. There was a strong association between concurrently measured SNV antibody prevalence in deer mice and probable exposure of human HPS cases during the same time period. Human cases were more likely to occur during seasons when SNV antibody prevalence was at least 10% in deer mouse populations. These findings suggest that fall rodent population parameters could be used to help guide prevention efforts the following spring.

A longitudinal study of hantavirus infection in three sympatric reservoir species in agroecosystems on the Argentine Pampa.

Prevalence of antibody reactive with Sin Nombre hantavirus (SNV) was evaluated from rodents captured over 31 months (March 1988 to September 1990) from six mark-recapture grids on the central Argentine Pampa. The most frequently infected rodents were: Akodon azarae (31/459), Necromys benefactus (8/141), and Oligoryzomys flavescens (10/281), which are known hosts of Pergamino, Maciel, and Lechiguanas hantaviruses, respectively. Relative population density and antibody prevalence varied seasonally and from year to year, population densities were highest in fall and prevalences were highest in spring. A positive association between antibody prevalence and body weight corroborated findings from other studies suggesting that hantaviruses are maintained in reservoir populations by horizontal transmission. In two of three host species, transmission was more frequent among male than among female mice. We found no evidence for a detrimental effect of hantavirus infection on host body weight, growth, longevity, movement, or reproductive preparedness. This analysis, based on cryopreserved specimens, represents the earliest conducted longitudinal, mark-recapture study of the dynamics of infection of autochthonous American hantaviruses in their sigmodontine host populations.

Dynamics of oliveros virus infection in rodents in central Argentina.

Oliveros virus (OLV) is an arenavirus hosted by the sigmodontine rodent, Necromys benefactus, in central Argentina. We report a 3-year longitudinal field study of the dynamics of OLV infection in host populations from 15 localities in two provinces on the central Argentine pampa. There was an overall 3-year period immunofluorescent antibody prevalence of 25% in the host population, and infected hosts were found throughout the study area. Spill-over infection into common sympatric species was rare. Infection dynamics exhibited many of the patterns seen for other rodent-borne arenaviruses and hantaviruses, but had some unique characteristics. Host population density was highest in autumn and lowest in spring, while antibody prevalence was highest in spring and lowest in autumn. Virus transmission was horizontal: infection was strongly associated with age, reaching 45% prevalence in the oldest individuals, and prevalence of infection was equal among male and female hosts. Infection may have been associated with scars, which were also approximately equally distributed among male and female Necromys.

Sin Nombre virus infection of deer mice in Montana: characteristics of newly infected mice, incidence, and temporal pattern of infection.

Sin Nombre virus (SNV), hosted by the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), is the principal cause of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in North America. To improve our understanding of factors that contribute to the occurrence of HPS, we conducted an extensive field study of the characteristics of newly infected (as determined by recent acquisition of antibody) deer mice and the temporal pattern of antibody acquisition (seroconversion) from 1994 through 2004 in Montana, USA. We sampled 6,584 individual deer mice, of which 2,747 were captured over multiple trapping periods. Among these 2,747 deer mice, we detected 171 instances of seroconversion. There was no relationship between seroconversion and the acquisition of scars. However, recently infected Montana deer mice were more likely to be older, more likely to be males, and more likely to be in breeding condition. In addition, recently infected male deer mice gained less weight over the 1-mo period following seroconversion than did those that did not acquire antibody, suggesting that SNV infection may have negatively impacted the health of infected rodents. Incidence was highly variable among years, and timing of infections was primarily associated with the breeding season (generally early spring through late fall).

Brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii) population dynamics and hantavirus infection during a warm, drought period in southern Arizona.

We monitored Limestone Canyon hantavirus (LSCV) antibody prevalence, host (brush mouse, Peromyscus boylii) abundance, and environmental variables (temperature and rainfall) in brush mice captured on three trapping webs in southern Arizona for 5 yr. Although seasonal patterns were subtle, we observed large multiyear variation in population abundance and antibody prevalence. Limestone Canyon hantavirus infection in brush mouse populations varied over time with prevalence ranging from 0% to 33%. At all trapping webs, evidence of infection disappeared completely for an extended period (up to 2 yr) and eventually reappeared, suggesting that dispersal may play a role in maintaining infection in brush mouse metapopulations. Weather during the study period was drier and warmer than average and these conditions, especially during spring through fall, may have contributed to low brush mouse population density and the local extinction of LSCV during the second year of the study. Nevertheless, population growth was associated with relatively warm, dry conditions during winter periods and a cool, wet spring and summer period in the fifth year of the study. After prolonged absence, LSCV infection was consistently detected only when brush mouse population abundance reached relatively high levels during that fifth year. Comparison of our results to similar studies suggests that stochastic events resulting in the loss or survival of a few infected mice in low-density host populations may result in local extinction of virus; reestablishment of infection may occur via immigration of infected individuals from adjacent populations, but may be successful only when populations are of sufficient density to support frequent rodent-to-rodent interactions and virus transmission.

Demographic factors associated with prevalence of antibody to Sin Nombre virus in deer mice in the western United States.

We used long-term data collected for up to 10 yr (1994-2004) at 23 trapping arrays (i.e., webs and grids) in Arizona, Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico to examine demographic factors known or suspected to be associated with risk of infection with Sin Nombre virus (SNV) in its natural host, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus). Gender, age (mass), wounds or scars, season, and local relative population densities were statistically associated with the period prevalence of antibody (used as a marker of infection) to SNV in host populations. Nevertheless, antibody prevalence and some of the risk factors associated with antibody prevalence, such as relative population density, gender bias, and prevalence of wounding, varied significantly among sites and even between nearby trapping arrays at a single site. This suggests that local microsite-specific differences play an important role in determining relative risk of infection by SNV in rodents and, consequently, in humans. Deer mouse relative population density varied among sites and was positively and statistically associated with infection prevalence, an association that researchers conducting shorter-term studies failed to demonstrate. Both wounding and antibody prevalence increased with mass class in both males and females; this increase was much more pronounced in males than in females and wounding was more frequent in adult males than in adult females. Prevalence of wounding was greatest among seropositive deer mice, regardless of mass class, but many deer mice without detectable wounds or scars eventually became infected. Many of these patterns, which will be useful in the development of predictive models of disease risk to humans, were only detected through the application of data collected over a long (10-yr) period and with abundant replication.