Safety in higher level automated vehicles: Investigating edge cases in crashes of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems.

With emerging Automated Driving Systems (ADS) representing Automated Vehicles (AVs) of Level 3 or higher as classified by the Society of Automotive Engineers, several AV manufacturers are testing their vehicles on public roadways in the U.S. The safety performance of AVs has become a major concern for the transportation industry. Several ADS-equipped vehicle crashes have been reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in recent years. Scrutinizing these crashes can reveal rare or complex scenarios beyond the normal capabilities of AV technologies called "edge cases." Investigating edge-case crashes helps AV companies prepare vehicles to handle these unusual scenarios and, as such, improves traffic safety. Through analyzing the NHTSA data from July 2021 to February 2023, this study utilizes an unsupervised machine learning technique, hierarchical clustering, to identify edge cases in ADS-equipped vehicle crashes. Fifteen out of 189 observations are identified as edge cases, representing 8 % of the population. Injuries occurred in 10 % of all crashes (19 out of 189), but the proportion rose to 27 % for edge cases (4 out of 15 edge cases). Based on the results, edge cases could be initiated by AVs, humans, infrastructure/environment, or their combination. Humans can be identified as one of the contributors to the onset of edge-case crashes in 60 % of the edge cases (9 out of 15 edge cases). The main scenarios for edge cases include unlawful behaviors of crash partners, absence of a safety driver within the AV, precrash disengagement, and complex events challenging for ADS, e.g., unexpected obstacles, unclear road markings, and sudden and unexpected changes in traffic flow, such as abrupt road congestion or sudden stopped traffic from a crash. Identifying and investigating edge cases is crucial for improving transportation safety and building public trust in AVs.

Incorporating driving volatility measures in safety performance functions: Improving safety at signalized intersections.

About 40 percent of motor vehicle crashes in the US are related to intersections. To deal with such crashes, Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) are vital elements of the predictive methods used in the Highway Safety Manual. The predictions of crash frequencies and potential reductions due to countermeasures are based on exposure and geometric variables. However, the role of driving behavior factors, e.g., hard accelerations and declarations at intersections, which can lead to crashes, are not explicitly treated in SPFs. One way to capture driving behavior is to harness connected vehicle data and quantify performance at intersections in terms of driving volatility measures, i.e., rapid changes in speed and acceleration. According to recent studies, driving volatility is typically associated with higher risk and safety-critical events and can serve as a surrogate for driving behavior. This study incorporates driving volatility measures in the development of SPFs for four-leg signalized intersections. The Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) data containing over 125 million Basic Safety Messages generated by over 2,800 connected vehicles are harnessed and linked with the crash, traffic, and geometric data belonging to 102 signalized intersections in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The results show that including driving volatility measures in SPFs can reduce model bias and significantly enhances the models' goodness-of-fit and predictive performance. Technically, the best results were obtained by applying Bayesian hierarchical Negative Binomial Models, which account for spatial correlation between signalized intersections. The results of this study have implications for practitioners and transportation agencies about incorporating driving behavior factors in the development of SPFs for greater accuracy and measures that can potentially reduce volatile driving.