Pediatric ECG-Based Deep Learning to Predict Left Ventricular Dysfunction and Remodeling.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence-enhanced ECG analysis shows promise to detect ventricular dysfunction and remodeling in adult populations. However, its application to pediatric populations remains underexplored. METHODS: A convolutional neural network was trained on paired ECG-echocardiograms (≤2 days apart) from patients ≤18 years of age without major congenital heart disease to detect human expert-classified greater than mild left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, hypertrophy, and dilation (individually and as a composite outcome). Model performance was evaluated on single ECG-echocardiogram pairs per patient at Boston Children's Hospital and externally at Mount Sinai Hospital using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). RESULTS: The training cohort comprised 92 377 ECG-echocardiogram pairs (46 261 patients; median age, 8.2 years). Test groups included internal testing (12 631 patients; median age, 8.8 years; 4.6% composite outcomes), emergency department (2830 patients; median age, 7.7 years; 10.0% composite outcomes), and external validation (5088 patients; median age, 4.3 years; 6.1% composite outcomes) cohorts. Model performance was similar on internal test and emergency department cohorts, with model predictions of LV hypertrophy outperforming the pediatric cardiologist expert benchmark. Adding age and sex to the model added no benefit to model performance. When using quantitative outcome cutoffs, model performance was similar between internal testing (composite outcome: AUROC, 0.88, AUPRC, 0.43; LV dysfunction: AUROC, 0.92, AUPRC, 0.23; LV hypertrophy: AUROC, 0.88, AUPRC, 0.28; LV dilation: AUROC, 0.91, AUPRC, 0.47) and external validation (composite outcome: AUROC, 0.86, AUPRC, 0.39; LV dysfunction: AUROC, 0.94, AUPRC, 0.32; LV hypertrophy: AUROC, 0.84, AUPRC, 0.25; LV dilation: AUROC, 0.87, AUPRC, 0.33), with composite outcome negative predictive values of 99.0% and 99.2%, respectively. Saliency mapping highlighted ECG components that influenced model predictions (precordial QRS complexes for all outcomes; T waves for LV dysfunction). High-risk ECG features include lateral T-wave inversion (LV dysfunction), deep S waves in V1 and V2 and tall R waves in V6 (LV hypertrophy), and tall R waves in V4 through V6 (LV dilation). CONCLUSIONS: This externally validated algorithm shows promise to inexpensively screen for LV dysfunction and remodeling in children, which may facilitate improved access to care by democratizing the expertise of pediatric cardiologists.

Identification of discriminative gene-level and protein-level features associated with pathogenic gain-of-function and loss-of-function variants.

Identifying whether a given genetic mutation results in a gene product with increased (gain-of-function; GOF) or diminished (loss-of-function; LOF) activity is an important step toward understanding disease mechanisms because they may result in markedly different clinical phenotypes. Here, we generated an extensive database of documented germline GOF and LOF pathogenic variants by employing natural language processing (NLP) on the available abstracts in the Human Gene Mutation Database. We then investigated various gene- and protein-level features of GOF and LOF variants and applied machine learning and statistical analyses to identify discriminative features. We found that GOF variants were enriched in essential genes, for autosomal-dominant inheritance, and in protein binding and interaction domains, whereas LOF variants were enriched in singleton genes, for protein-truncating variants, and in protein core regions. We developed a user-friendly web-based interface that enables the extraction of selected subsets from the GOF/LOF database by a broad set of annotated features and downloading of up-to-date versions. These results improve our understanding of how variants affect gene/protein function and may ultimately guide future treatment options.

Machine learning-based marker for coronary artery disease: derivation and validation in two longitudinal cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Binary diagnosis of coronary artery disease does not preserve the complexity of disease or quantify its severity or its associated risk with death; hence, a quantitative marker of coronary artery disease is warranted. We evaluated a quantitative marker of coronary artery disease derived from probabilities of a machine learning model. METHODS: In this cohort study, we developed and validated a coronary artery disease-predictive machine learning model using 95 935 electronic health records and assessed its probabilities as in-silico scores for coronary artery disease (ISCAD; range 0 [lowest probability] to 1 [highest probability]) in participants in two longitudinal biobank cohorts. We measured the association of ISCAD with clinical outcomes-namely, coronary artery stenosis, obstructive coronary artery disease, multivessel coronary artery disease, all-cause death, and coronary artery disease sequelae. FINDINGS: Among 95 935 participants, 35 749 were from the BioMe Biobank (median age 61 years [IQR 18]; 14 599 [41%] were male and 21 150 [59%] were female; 5130 [14%] were with diagnosed coronary artery disease) and 60 186 were from the UK Biobank (median age 62 [15] years; 25 031 [42%] male and 35 155 [58%] female; 8128 [14%] with diagnosed coronary artery disease). The model predicted coronary artery disease with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0·95 (95% CI 0·94-0·95; sensitivity of 0·94 [0·94-0·95] and specificity of 0·82 [0·81-0·83]) and 0·93 (0·92-0·93; sensitivity of 0·90 [0·89-0·90] and specificity of 0·88 [0·87-0·88]) in the BioMe validation and holdout sets, respectively, and 0·91 (0·91-0·91; sensitivity of 0·84 [0·83-0·84] and specificity of 0·83 [0·82-0·83]) in the UK Biobank external test set. ISCAD captured coronary artery disease risk from known risk factors, pooled cohort equations, and polygenic risk scores. Coronary artery stenosis increased quantitatively with ascending ISCAD quartiles (increase per quartile of 12 percentage points), including risk of obstructive coronary artery disease, multivessel coronary artery disease, and stenosis of major coronary arteries. Hazard ratios (HRs) and prevalence of all-cause death increased stepwise over ISCAD deciles (decile 1: HR 1·0 [95% CI 1·0-1·0], 0·2% prevalence; decile 6: 11 [3·9-31], 3·1% prevalence; and decile 10: 56 [20-158], 11% prevalence). A similar trend was observed for recurrent myocardial infarction. 12 (46%) undiagnosed individuals with high ISCAD (≥0·9) had clinical evidence of coronary artery disease according to the 2014 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force guidelines. INTERPRETATION: Electronic health record-based machine learning was used to generate an in-silico marker for coronary artery disease that can non-invasively quantify atherosclerosis and risk of death on a continuous spectrum, and identify underdiagnosed individuals. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Modification of Association of Cystatin C With Kidney and Cardiovascular Outcomes by Obesity.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcys) has stronger associations with adverse clinical outcomes than creatinine-based eGFR (eGFRcr). Obesity may be associated with higher cystatin C levels, independent of kidney function, but it is unknown whether obesity modifies associations of eGFRcys with kidney and cardiovascular outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 27,249 US adults in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study. PREDICTORS: eGFRcys, eGFRcr, waist circumference, and body mass index (BMI). OUTCOME: All-cause mortality, kidney failure, incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and incident heart failure (HF). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable Cox and Fine-Gray models with multiplicative interaction terms were constructed to investigate whether waist circumference quartiles or BMI categories modified associations of eGFRcys with risks of 4 clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 65 years; 54% were women, 41% were Black, and 21% had an eGFRcys<60mL/min/1.73m2. The baseline prevalence of abdominal obesity (waist circumference≥88cm for women or≥102cm for men) was 48% and obesity was 38%. In multivariable adjusted analyses, each 15mL/min/1.73m2 lower eGFRcys was associated with higher HR and 95% CI of mortality in each waist circumference quartile (first quartile, 1.19 [1.15-1.24]; second quartile, 1.22 [1.18-1.26]; third quartile, 1.20 [1.16-1.24]; fourth quartile, 1.19 [1.15-1.23]) as well as within each BMI category (BMI<24.9: 1.21 [1.17-1.25]; BMI 25.0-29.9: 1.21 [1.18-1.25]; BMI 30.0-34.9: 1.20 [1.16-1.25]; BMI≥35: 1.17, [1.12-1.22]). Neither waist circumference nor BMI modified the association of eGFRcys with mortality, kidney failure, incident ASCVD, or incident HF (all Pinteraction>0.05). LIMITATIONS: Included only Black and White persons in the United States. CONCLUSION: Obesity did not modify the association of eGFRcys with all-cause mortality, kidney failure, incident ASCVD, or incident HF. Among individuals with obesity, cystatin C may be used to provide eGFR-based risk prognostication for adverse outcomes. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Cystatin C is increasingly used in clinical practice to estimate kidney function, and cystatin C-based eGFR (eGFRcys) may be used to determine risk for adverse clinical outcomes. Adiposity may increase serum levels of cystatin C, independent of kidney function. This cohort study investigated whether associations of eGFRcys with adverse kidney and cardiovascular outcomes are modified by measures of obesity, waist circumference, and body mass index. We found that obesity does not modify associations of eGFRcys with 4 clinical outcomes and conclude that among individuals with obesity, cystatin C may be used to provide eGFR-based risk prognostication for adverse outcomes.

Machine learning derived serum creatinine trajectories in acute kidney injury in critically ill patients with sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Current classification for acute kidney injury (AKI) in critically ill patients with sepsis relies only on its severity-measured by maximum creatinine which overlooks inherent complexities and longitudinal evaluation of this heterogenous syndrome. The role of classification of AKI based on early creatinine trajectories is unclear. METHODS: This retrospective study identified patients with Sepsis-3 who developed AKI within 48-h of intensive care unit admission using Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV database. We used latent class mixed modelling to identify early creatinine trajectory-based classes of AKI in critically ill patients with sepsis. Our primary outcome was development of acute kidney disease (AKD). Secondary outcomes were composite of AKD or all-cause in-hospital mortality by day 7, and AKD or all-cause in-hospital mortality by hospital discharge. We used multivariable regression to assess impact of creatinine trajectory-based classification on outcomes, and eICU database for external validation. RESULTS: Among 4197 patients with AKI in critically ill patients with sepsis, we identified eight creatinine trajectory-based classes with distinct characteristics. Compared to the class with transient AKI, the class that showed severe AKI with mild improvement but persistence had highest adjusted risks for developing AKD (OR 5.16; 95% CI 2.87-9.24) and composite 7-day outcome (HR 4.51; 95% CI 2.69-7.56). The class that demonstrated late mild AKI with persistence and worsening had highest risks for developing composite hospital discharge outcome (HR 2.04; 95% CI 1.41-2.94). These associations were similar on external validation. CONCLUSIONS: These 8 classes of AKI in critically ill patients with sepsis, stratified by early creatinine trajectories, were good predictors for key outcomes in patients with AKI in critically ill patients with sepsis independent of their AKI staging.

Implications of the Use of Artificial Intelligence Predictive Models in Health Care Settings : A Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Substantial effort has been directed toward demonstrating uses of predictive models in health care. However, implementation of these models into clinical practice may influence patient outcomes, which in turn are captured in electronic health record data. As a result, deployed models may affect the predictive ability of current and future models. OBJECTIVE: To estimate changes in predictive model performance with use through 3 common scenarios: model retraining, sequentially implementing 1 model after another, and intervening in response to a model when 2 are simultaneously implemented. DESIGN: Simulation of model implementation and use in critical care settings at various levels of intervention effectiveness and clinician adherence. Models were either trained or retrained after simulated implementation. SETTING: Admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU) at Mount Sinai Health System (New York, New York) and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Boston, Massachusetts). PATIENTS: 130 000 critical care admissions across both health systems. INTERVENTION: Across 3 scenarios, interventions were simulated at varying levels of clinician adherence and effectiveness. MEASUREMENTS: Statistical measures of performance, including threshold-independent (area under the curve) and threshold-dependent measures. RESULTS: At fixed 90% sensitivity, in scenario 1 a mortality prediction model lost 9% to 39% specificity after retraining once and in scenario 2 a mortality prediction model lost 8% to 15% specificity when created after the implementation of an acute kidney injury (AKI) prediction model; in scenario 3, models for AKI and mortality prediction implemented simultaneously, each led to reduced effective accuracy of the other by 1% to 28%. LIMITATIONS: In real-world practice, the effectiveness of and adherence to model-based recommendations are rarely known in advance. Only binary classifiers for tabular ICU admissions data were simulated. CONCLUSION: In simulated ICU settings, a universally effective model-updating approach for maintaining model performance does not seem to exist. Model use may have to be recorded to maintain viability of predictive modeling. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS: Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. CONCLUSIONS: The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.

Machine Learning Quantification of Pulmonary Regurgitation Fraction from Echocardiography.

Assessment of pulmonary regurgitation (PR) guides treatment for patients with congenital heart disease. Quantitative assessment of PR fraction (PRF) by echocardiography is limited. Cardiac MRI (cMRI) is the reference-standard for PRF quantification. We created an algorithm to predict cMRI-quantified PRF from echocardiography using machine learning (ML). We retrospectively performed echocardiographic measurements paired to cMRI within 3 months in patients with ≥ mild PR from 2009 to 2022. Model inputs were vena contracta ratio, PR index, PR pressure half-time, main and branch pulmonary artery diastolic flow reversal (BPAFR), and transannular patch repair. A gradient boosted trees ML algorithm was trained using k-fold cross-validation to predict cMRI PRF by phase contrast imaging as a continuous number and at > mild (PRF ≥ 20%) and severe (PRF ≥ 40%) thresholds. Regression performance was evaluated with mean absolute error (MAE), and at clinical thresholds with area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUROC). Prediction accuracy was compared to historical clinician accuracy. We externally validated prior reported studies for comparison. We included 243 subjects (median age 21 years, 58% repaired tetralogy of Fallot). The regression MAE = 7.0%. For prediction of > mild PR, AUROC = 0.96, but BPAFR alone outperformed the ML model (sensitivity 94%, specificity 97%). The ML model detection of severe PR had AUROC = 0.86, but in the subgroup with BPAFR, performance dropped (AUROC = 0.73). Accuracy between clinicians and the ML model was similar (70% vs. 69%). There was decrement in performance of prior reported algorithms on external validation in our dataset. A novel ML model for echocardiographic quantification of PRF outperforms prior studies and has comparable overall accuracy to clinicians. BPAFR is an excellent marker for > mild PRF, and has moderate capacity to detect severe PR, but more work is required to distinguish moderate from severe PR. Poor external validation of prior works highlights reproducibility challenges.

Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study.

AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. CONCLUSION: Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

Large language models for generating medical examinations: systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Writing multiple choice questions (MCQs) for the purpose of medical exams is challenging. It requires extensive medical knowledge, time and effort from medical educators. This systematic review focuses on the application of large language models (LLMs) in generating medical MCQs. METHODS: The authors searched for studies published up to November 2023. Search terms focused on LLMs generated MCQs for medical examinations. Non-English, out of year range and studies not focusing on AI generated multiple-choice questions were excluded. MEDLINE was used as a search database. Risk of bias was evaluated using a tailored QUADAS-2 tool. RESULTS: Overall, eight studies published between April 2023 and October 2023 were included. Six studies used Chat-GPT 3.5, while two employed GPT 4. Five studies showed that LLMs can produce competent questions valid for medical exams. Three studies used LLMs to write medical questions but did not evaluate the validity of the questions. One study conducted a comparative analysis of different models. One other study compared LLM-generated questions with those written by humans. All studies presented faulty questions that were deemed inappropriate for medical exams. Some questions required additional modifications in order to qualify. CONCLUSIONS: LLMs can be used to write MCQs for medical examinations. However, their limitations cannot be ignored. Further study in this field is essential and more conclusive evidence is needed. Until then, LLMs may serve as a supplementary tool for writing medical examinations. 2 studies were at high risk of bias. The study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

Cross-Ancestry Investigation of Venous Thromboembolism Genomic Predictors.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a life-threatening vascular event with environmental and genetic determinants. Recent VTE genome-wide association studies (GWAS) meta-analyses involved nearly 30 000 VTE cases and identified up to 40 genetic loci associated with VTE risk, including loci not previously suspected to play a role in hemostasis. The aim of our research was to expand discovery of new genetic loci associated with VTE by using cross-ancestry genomic resources. METHODS: We present new cross-ancestry meta-analyzed GWAS results involving up to 81 669 VTE cases from 30 studies, with replication of novel loci in independent populations and loci characterization through in silico genomic interrogations. RESULTS: In our genetic discovery effort that included 55 330 participants with VTE (47 822 European, 6320 African, and 1188 Hispanic ancestry), we identified 48 novel associations, of which 34 were replicated after correction for multiple testing. In our combined discovery-replication analysis (81 669 VTE participants) and ancestry-stratified meta-analyses (European, African, and Hispanic), we identified another 44 novel associations, which are new candidate VTE-associated loci requiring replication. In total, across all GWAS meta-analyses, we identified 135 independent genomic loci significantly associated with VTE risk. A genetic risk score of the significantly associated loci in Europeans identified a 6-fold increase in risk for those in the top 1% of scores compared with those with average scores. We also identified 31 novel transcript associations in transcriptome-wide association studies and 8 novel candidate genes with protein quantitative-trait locus Mendelian randomization analyses. In silico interrogations of hemostasis and hematology traits and a large phenome-wide association analysis of the 135 GWAS loci provided insights to biological pathways contributing to VTE, with some loci contributing to VTE through well-characterized coagulation pathways and others providing new data on the role of hematology traits, particularly platelet function. Many of the replicated loci are outside of known or currently hypothesized pathways to thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses identified new loci associated with VTE. These findings highlight new pathways to thrombosis and provide novel molecules that may be useful in the development of improved antithrombosis treatments.

Genome-wide polygenic risk score for retinopathy of type 2 diabetes.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a common consequence in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and a leading cause of blindness in working-age adults. Yet, its genetic predisposition is largely unknown. Here, we examined the polygenic architecture underlying DR by deriving and assessing a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) for DR. We evaluated the PRS in 6079 individuals with T2D of European, Hispanic, African and other ancestries from a large-scale multi-ethnic biobank. Main outcomes were PRS association with DR diagnosis, symptoms and complications, and time to diagnosis, and transferability to non-European ancestries. We observed that PRS was significantly associated with DR. A standard deviation increase in PRS was accompanied by an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.20; P = 0.001] for DR diagnosis. When stratified by ancestry, PRS was associated with the highest OR in European ancestry (OR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.02-1.41; P = 0.049), followed by African (OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.03-1.28; P = 0.028) and Hispanic ancestries (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.00-1.10; P = 0.050). Individuals in the top PRS decile had a 1.8-fold elevated risk for DR versus the bottom decile (P = 0.002). Among individuals without DR diagnosis, the top PRS decile had more DR symptoms than the bottom decile (P = 0.008). The PRS was associated with retinal hemorrhage (OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.03-2.02; P = 0.03) and earlier DR presentation (10% probability of DR by 4 years in the top PRS decile versus 8 years in the bottom decile). These results establish the significant polygenic underpinnings of DR and indicate the need for more diverse ancestries in biobanks to develop multi-ancestral PRS.

In-hospital outcomes in patients with and without epilepsy diagnosed with COVID-19-A cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with mortality in persons with comorbidities. The aim of this study was to evaluate in-hospital outcomes in patients with COVID-19 with and without epilepsy. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of patients with COVID-19 admitted to a multicenter health system between March 15, 2020, and May 17, 2021. Patients with epilepsy were identified using a validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM)/ICD-10-CM case definition. Logistic regression models and Kaplan-Meier analyses were conducted for mortality and non-routine discharges (i.e., not discharged home). An ordinary least-squares regression model was fitted for length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: We identified 9833 people with COVID-19 including 334 with epilepsy. On univariate analysis, people with epilepsy had significantly higher ventilator use (37.70% vs 14.30%, p < .001), intensive care unit (ICU) admissions (39.20% vs 17.70%, p < .001) mortality rate (29.60% vs 19.90%, p < .001), and longer LOS (12 days vs 7 days, p < .001). and fewer were discharged home (29.64% vs 57.37%, p < .001). On multivariate analysis, only non-routine discharge (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.00-3.70; p < .001) and LOS (32.50% longer, 95% CI 22.20%-43.60%; p < .001) were significantly different. Factors associated with higher odds of mortality in epilepsy were older age (aOR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.08; p < .001), ventilator support (aOR 7.18, 95% CI 3.12-16.48; p < .001), and higher Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) (aOR 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.34; p = .010). In epilepsy, admissions between August and December 2020 or January and May 2021 were associated with a lower odds of non-routine discharge and decreased LOS compared to admissions between March and July 2020, but this difference was not statistically significant. SIGNIFICANCE: People with COVID-19 who had epilepsy had a higher odds of non-routine discharge and longer LOS but not higher mortality. Older age (≥65), ventilator use, and higher CCI were associated with COVID-19 mortality in epilepsy. This suggests that older adults with epilepsy and multimorbidity are more vulnerable than those without and should be monitored closely in the setting of COVID-19.

Derivation and independent validation of kidneyintelX.dkd: A prognostic test for the assessment of diabetic kidney disease progression.

AIMS: To develop and validate an updated version of KidneyIntelX (kidneyintelX.dkd) to stratify patients for risk of progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) stages 1 to 3, to simplify the test for clinical adoption and support an application to the US Food and Drug Administration regulatory pathway. METHODS: We used plasma biomarkers and clinical data from the Penn Medicine Biobank (PMBB) for training, and independent cohorts (BioMe and CANVAS) for validation. The primary outcome was progressive decline in kidney function (PDKF), defined by a ≥40% sustained decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate or end-stage kidney disease within 5 years of follow-up. RESULTS: In 573 PMBB participants with DKD, 15.4% experienced PDKF over a median of 3.7 years. We trained a random forest model using biomarkers and clinical variables. Among 657 BioMe participants and 1197 CANVAS participants, 11.7% and 7.5%, respectively, experienced PDKF. Based on training cut-offs, 57%, 35% and 8% of BioMe participants, and 56%, 38% and 6% of CANVAS participants were classified as having low-, moderate- and high-risk levels, respectively. The cumulative incidence at these risk levels was 5.9%, 21.2% and 66.9% in BioMe and 6.7%, 13.1% and 59.6% in CANVAS. After clinical risk factor adjustment, the adjusted hazard ratios were 7.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0-19.6) and 3.7 (95% CI 2.0-6.8) in BioMe, and 5.4 (95% CI 2.5-11.9) and 2.3 (95% CI 1.4-3.9) in CANVAS, for high- versus low-risk and moderate- versus low-risk levels, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using two independent cohorts and a clinical trial population, we validated an updated KidneyIntelX test (named kidneyintelX.dkd), which significantly enhanced risk stratification in patients with DKD for PDKF, independently from known risk factors for progression.

Discrepancy between predicted and measured exercise intensity for eliciting the maximal rate of lipid oxidation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Ectopic lipid storage is implicated in type 2 diabetes pathogenesis; hence, exercise to deplete stores (i.e., at the intensity that allows for maximal rate of lipid oxidation; MLO) might be optimal for restoring metabolic health. This intensity ("Fatmax") is estimated during incremental exercise ("Fatmax test"). However, in "the field" general recommendations exist regarding a range of percentages of maximal heart rate (HR) to elicit MLO. The degree to which this range is aligned with measured Fatmax has not been investigated. We compared measured HR at Fatmax, with maximal HR percentages within the typically recommended range in a sample of 26 individuals (Female: n = 11, European ancestry: n = 17). METHODS AND RESULTS: Subjects completed a modified Fatmax test with a 5-min warmup, followed by incremental stages starting at 15 W with work rate increased by 15 W every 5 min until termination criteria were reached. Pulmonary gas exchange was recorded and average values for V˙ o2 and V˙ co2 for the final minute of each stage were used to estimate substrate-oxidation rates. We modeled lipid-oxidation kinetics using a sinusoidal model and expressed MLO relative to peak V˙ o2 and HR. Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated lack of concordance between HR at Fatmax and at 50%, 70%, and 80% of age-predicted maximum with a mean difference of 23 b·min-1. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that estimated "fat-burning" heart rate zones are inappropriate for prescribing exercise to elicit MLO and we recommend direct individual exercise lipid oxidation measurements to elicit these values.

Machine learning models to predict end-stage kidney disease in chronic kidney disease stage 4.

INTRODUCTION: End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Identifying patients with stage 4 CKD (CKD4) at risk of rapid progression to ESKD remains challenging. Accurate prediction of CKD4 progression can improve patient outcomes by improving advanced care planning and optimizing healthcare resource allocation. METHODS: We obtained electronic health record data from patients with CKD4 in a large health system between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2016. We developed and validated four models, including Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN), to predict ESKD at 3 years. We utilized area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to evaluate model performances and utilized Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values and plots to define feature dependence of the best performance model. RESULTS: We included 3,160 patients with CKD4. ESKD was observed in 538 patients (21%). All approaches had similar AUROCs; ANN yielded the highest AUROC (0.77; 95%CI 0.75 to 0.79) and LASSO regression (0.77; 95%CI 0.75 to 0.79), followed by random forest (0.76; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.79), and XGBoost (0.76; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated several models for near-term prediction of kidney failure in CKD4. ANN, random forest, and XGBoost demonstrated similar predictive performances. Using this suite of models, interventions can be customized based on risk, and population health and resources appropriately allocated.

Development of a Definition of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Importance: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with persistent, relapsing, or new symptoms or other health effects occurring after acute infection, termed postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), also known as long COVID. Characterizing PASC requires analysis of prospectively and uniformly collected data from diverse uninfected and infected individuals. Objective: To develop a definition of PASC using self-reported symptoms and describe PASC frequencies across cohorts, vaccination status, and number of infections. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective observational cohort study of adults with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection at 85 enrolling sites (hospitals, health centers, community organizations) located in 33 states plus Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico. Participants who were enrolled in the RECOVER adult cohort before April 10, 2023, completed a symptom survey 6 months or more after acute symptom onset or test date. Selection included population-based, volunteer, and convenience sampling. Exposure: SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: PASC and 44 participant-reported symptoms (with severity thresholds). Results: A total of 9764 participants (89% SARS-CoV-2 infected; 71% female; 16% Hispanic/Latino; 15% non-Hispanic Black; median age, 47 years [IQR, 35-60]) met selection criteria. Adjusted odds ratios were 1.5 or greater (infected vs uninfected participants) for 37 symptoms. Symptoms contributing to PASC score included postexertional malaise, fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, gastrointestinal symptoms, palpitations, changes in sexual desire or capacity, loss of or change in smell or taste, thirst, chronic cough, chest pain, and abnormal movements. Among 2231 participants first infected on or after December 1, 2021, and enrolled within 30 days of infection, 224 (10% [95% CI, 8.8%-11%]) were PASC positive at 6 months. Conclusions and Relevance: A definition of PASC was developed based on symptoms in a prospective cohort study. As a first step to providing a framework for other investigations, iterative refinement that further incorporates other clinical features is needed to support actionable definitions of PASC.

Clinical Informatics in Critical Care Medicine.

Continuous monitoring and treatment of patients in intensive care units generates vast amounts of data. Critical Care Medicine clinicians incorporate this continuously evolving data to make split-second, life or death decisions for management of these patients. Despite the abundance of data, it can be challenging to consider every accessible data point when making the quick decisions necessary at the point of care. Consequently, Clinical Informatics offers a natural partnership to improve the care for critically ill patients. The last two decades have seen a significant evolution in the role of Clinical Informatics in Critical Care Medicine. In this review, we will discuss how Clinical Informatics improves the care of critically ill patients by enhancing not only data collection and visualization but also bedside medical decision making. We will further discuss the evolving role of machine learning algorithms in Clinical Informatics as it pertains to Critical Care Medicine.

Life is pain: Fibromyalgia as a nexus of multiple liability distributions.

Fibromyalgia is a complex disease of unclear etiology that is complicated by difficulties in diagnosis, treatment, and clinical heterogeneity. To clarify this etiology, healthcare-based data are leveraged to assess the influences on fibromyalgia in several domains. Prevalence is less than 1% of females in our population register data, and about 1/10th that in males. Fibromyalgia often presents with co-occurring conditions including back pain, rheumatoid arthritis, and anxiety. More comorbidities are identified with hospital-associated biobank data, falling into three broad categories of pain-related, autoimmune, and psychiatric disorders. Selecting representative phenotypes with published genome-wide association results for polygenic scoring, we confirm genetic predispositions to psychiatric, pain sensitivity, and autoimmune conditions show associations with fibromyalgia, although these may differ by ancestry group. We conduct a genome-wide association analysis of fibromyalgia in biobank samples, which did not result in any genome-wide significant loci; further studies with increased sample size are necessary to identify specific genetic effects on fibromyalgia. Overall, fibromyalgia appears to have strong clinical and likely genetic links to several disease categories, and could usefully be understood as a composite manifestation of these etiological sources.

Intestinal Host Response to SARS-CoV-2 Infection and COVID-19 Outcomes in Patients With Gastrointestinal Symptoms.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Given that gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms are a prominent extrapulmonary manifestation of COVID-19, we investigated intestinal infection with SARS-CoV-2, its effect on pathogenesis, and clinical significance. METHODS: Human intestinal biopsy tissues were obtained from patients with COVID-19 (n = 19) and uninfected control individuals (n = 10) for microscopic examination, cytometry by time of flight analyses, and RNA sequencing. Additionally, disease severity and mortality were examined in patients with and without GI symptoms in 2 large, independent cohorts of hospitalized patients in the United States (N = 634) and Europe (N = 287) using multivariate logistic regressions. RESULTS: COVID-19 case patients and control individuals in the biopsy cohort were comparable for age, sex, rates of hospitalization, and relevant comorbid conditions. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in small intestinal epithelial cells by immunofluorescence staining or electron microscopy in 15 of 17 patients studied. High-dimensional analyses of GI tissues showed low levels of inflammation, including down-regulation of key inflammatory genes including IFNG, CXCL8, CXCL2, and IL1B and reduced frequencies of proinflammatory dendritic cells compared with control individuals. Consistent with these findings, we found a significant reduction in disease severity and mortality in patients presenting with GI symptoms that was independent of sex, age, and comorbid illnesses and despite similar nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral loads. Furthermore, there was reduced levels of key inflammatory proteins in circulation in patients with GI symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: These data highlight the absence of a proinflammatory response in the GI tract despite detection of SARS-CoV-2. In parallel, reduced mortality in patients with COVID-19 presenting with GI symptoms was observed. A potential role of the GI tract in attenuating SARS-CoV-2-associated inflammation needs to be further examined.