Modelling the impact of vaccination and sexual behaviour adaptations on mpox cases in the USA during the 2022 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: The 2022 mpox outbreak has infected over 30 000 people in the USA, with cases declining since mid-August. Infections were commonly associated with sexual contact between men. Interventions to mitigate the outbreak included vaccination and a reduction in sexual partnerships. Understanding the contributions of these interventions to decreasing cases can inform future public health efforts. METHODS: We fit a dynamic network transmission model to mpox cases reported by Washington DC through 10 January 2023. This model incorporated both vaccine administration data and reported reductions in sexual partner acquisition by gay, bisexual or other men who have sex with men (MSM). The model output consisted of daily cases over time with or without vaccination and/or behavioural adaptation. RESULTS: We found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptations. One year into the outbreak, vaccination and behavioural adaptation together prevented an estimated 84% (IQR 67% to 91%) of cases. Vaccination alone averted 79% (IQR 64% to 88%) of cases and behavioural adaptation alone averted 25% (IQR 10% to 42%) of cases. We further found that in the absence of vaccination, behavioural adaptation would have reduced the number of cases, but would have prolonged the outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: We found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptation, but vaccination averted more cases overall and was key to hastening outbreak conclusion. Overall, this indicates that outreach to encourage individuals to protect themselves from infection was vital in the early stages of the mpox outbreak, but that combination with a robust vaccination programme hastened outbreak conclusion.

U.S. Preparedness and Response to Increasing Clade I Mpox Cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo - United States, 2024.

Clade I monkeypox virus (MPXV), which can cause severe illness in more people than clade II MPXVs, is endemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), but the country has experienced an increase in suspected cases during 2023-2024. In light of the 2022 global outbreak of clade II mpox, the increase in suspected clade I cases in DRC raises concerns that the virus could spread to other countries and underscores the importance of coordinated, urgent global action to support DRC's efforts to contain the virus. To date, no cases of clade I mpox have been detected outside of countries in Central Africa where the virus is endemic. CDC and other partners are working to support DRC's response. In addition, CDC is enhancing U.S. preparedness by raising awareness, strengthening surveillance, expanding diagnostic testing capacity for clade I MPXV, ensuring appropriate specimen handling and waste management, emphasizing the importance of appropriate medical treatment, and communicating guidance on the recommended contact tracing, containment, behavior modification, and vaccination strategies.

Orthopoxvirus Infections in Rodents, Nigeria, 2018-2019.

To investigate animal reservoirs of monkeypox virus in Nigeria, we sampled 240 rodents during 2018-2019. Molecular (real-time PCR) and serologic (IgM) evidence indicated orthopoxvirus infections, but presence of monkeypox virus was not confirmed. These results can be used to develop public health interventions to reduce human infection with orthopoxviruses.

Serial Interval and Incubation Period Estimates of Monkeypox Virus Infection in 12 Jurisdictions, United States, May-August 2022.

Using data from 12 US health departments, we estimated mean serial interval for monkeypox virus infection to be 8.5 (95% credible interval 7.3-9.9) days for symptom onset, based on 57 case pairs. Mean estimated incubation period was 5.6 (95% credible interval 4.3-7.8) days for symptom onset, based on 35 case pairs.

Epidemiology of Human Mpox - Worldwide, 2018-2021.

Monkeypox (mpox) is a zoonotic disease caused by Monkeypox virus (MPXV), an Orthopoxvirus; the wild mammalian reservoir species is not known. There are two genetic clades of MPXV: clade I and clade II (historically found in central and west Africa, respectively), with only Cameroon reporting both clades (1). Human cases have historically been reported from 1) mostly rural, forested areas in some central and west African countries; 2) countries reporting cases related to population migration or travel of infected persons; and 3) exposure to imported infected mammals (2). The annual number of cases in Africa has risen since 2014 and cumulatively surpassed reports from the previous 40 years for most countries. This reemergence of mpox might be due to a combination of environmental and ecological changes, animal or human movement, the cessation of routine smallpox vaccination since its eradication in 1980, improvements in disease detection and diagnosis, and genetic changes in the virus (2). This report describes the epidemiology of mpox since 1970 and during 2018-2021, using data from national surveillance programs, World Health Organization (WHO) bulletins, and case reports, and addresses current diagnostic and treatment challenges in countries with endemic disease. During 2018-2021, human cases were recognized and confirmed in six African countries, with most detected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Nigeria. The reemergence and increase in cases resulted in its being listed in 2019 as a priority disease for immediate and routine reporting through the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response strategy in the WHO African region.* In eight instances, patients with mpox were identified in four countries outside of Africa after travel from Nigeria. Since 2018, introductory and intermediate training courses on prevention and control of mpox for public health and health care providers have been available online at OpenWHO.†,§ The global outbreak that began in May 2022¶ has further highlighted the need for improvements in laboratory-based surveillance and access to treatments and vaccines to prevent and contain the infection, including in areas of Africa with endemic mpox.

Exportation of Monkeypox Virus From the African Continent.

BACKGROUND: The largest West African monkeypox outbreak began September 2017, in Nigeria. Four individuals traveling from Nigeria to the United Kingdom (n = 2), Israel (n = 1), and Singapore (n = 1) became the first human monkeypox cases exported from Africa, and a related nosocomial transmission event in the United Kingdom became the first confirmed human-to-human monkeypox transmission event outside of Africa. METHODS: Epidemiological and molecular data for exported and Nigerian cases were analyzed jointly to better understand the exportations in the temporal and geographic context of the outbreak. RESULTS: Isolates from all travelers and a Bayelsa case shared a most recent common ancestor and traveled to Bayelsa, Delta, or Rivers states. Genetic variation for this cluster was lower than would be expected from a random sampling of genomes from this outbreak, but data did not support direct links between travelers. CONCLUSIONS: Monophyly of exportation cases and the Bayelsa sample, along with the intermediate levels of genetic variation, suggest a small pool of related isolates is the likely source for the exported infections. This may be the result of the level of genetic variation present in monkeypox isolates circulating within the contiguous region of Bayelsa, Delta, and Rivers states, or another more restricted, yet unidentified source pool.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission in a Georgia School District-United States, December 2020-January 2021.

BACKGROUND: To inform prevention strategies, we assessed the extent of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and settings in which transmission occurred in a Georgia public school district. METHODS: During 1 December 2020-22 January 2021, SARS-CoV-2-infected index cases and their close contacts in schools were identified by school and public health officials. For in-school contacts, we assessed symptoms and offered SARS-CoV-2 reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing; performed epidemiologic investigations and whole-genome sequencing to identify in-school transmission; and calculated secondary attack rate (SAR) by school setting (eg, sports, elementary school classroom), index case role (ie, staff, student), and index case symptomatic status. RESULTS: We identified 86 index cases and 1119 contacts, 688 (61.5%) of whom received testing. Fifty-nine of 679 (8.7%) contacts tested positive; 15 of 86 (17.4%) index cases resulted in ≥2 positive contacts. Among 55 persons testing positive with available symptom data, 31 (56.4%) were asymptomatic. Highest SARs were in indoor, high-contact sports settings (23.8% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 12.7%-33.3%]), staff meetings/lunches (18.2% [95% CI, 4.5%-31.8%]), and elementary school classrooms (9.5% [95% CI, 6.5%-12.5%]). The SAR was higher for staff (13.1% [95% CI, 9.0%-17.2%]) vs student index cases (5.8% [95% CI, 3.6%-8.0%]) and for symptomatic (10.9% [95% CI, 8.1%-13.9%]) vs asymptomatic index cases (3.0% [95% CI, 1.0%-5.5%]). CONCLUSIONS: Indoor sports may pose a risk to the safe operation of in-person learning. Preventing infection in staff members, through measures that include coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination, is critical to reducing in-school transmission. Because many positive contacts were asymptomatic, contact tracing should be paired with testing, regardless of symptoms.

Incidence of Monkeypox Among Unvaccinated Persons Compared with Persons Receiving ≥1 JYNNEOS Vaccine Dose - 32 U.S. Jurisdictions, July 31-September 3, 2022.

Human monkeypox is caused by Monkeypox virus (MPXV), an Orthopoxvirus, previously rare in the United States (1). The first U.S. case of monkeypox during the current outbreak was identified on May 17, 2022 (2). As of September 28, 2022, a total of 25,341 monkeypox cases have been reported in the United States.* The outbreak has disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) (3). JYNNEOS vaccine (Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine, Bavarian Nordic), administered subcutaneously as a 2-dose (0.5 mL per dose) series with doses administered 4 weeks apart, was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2019 to prevent smallpox and monkeypox infection (4). U.S. distribution of JYNNEOS vaccine as postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) for persons with known exposures to MPXV began in May 2022. A U.S. national vaccination strategy† for expanded PEP, announced on June 28, 2022, recommended subcutaneous vaccination of persons with known or presumed exposure to MPXV, broadening vaccination eligibility. FDA emergency use authorization (EUA) of intradermal administration of 0.1 mL of JYNNEOS on August 9, 2022, increased vaccine supply (5). As of September 28, 2022, most vaccine has been administered as PEP or expanded PEP. Because of the limited amount of time that has elapsed since administration of initial vaccine doses, as of September 28, 2022, relatively few persons in the current outbreak have completed the recommended 2-dose series.§ To examine the incidence of monkeypox among persons who were unvaccinated and those who had received ≥1 JYNNEOS vaccine dose, 5,402 reported monkeypox cases occurring among males¶ aged 18-49 years during July 31-September 3, 2022, were analyzed by vaccination status across 32 U.S. jurisdictions.** Average monkeypox incidence (cases per 100,000) among unvaccinated persons was 14.3 (95% CI = 5.0-41.0) times that among persons who received 1 dose of JYNNEOS vaccine ≥14 days earlier. Monitoring monkeypox incidence by vaccination status in timely surveillance data might provide early indications of vaccine-related protection that can be confirmed through other well-controlled vaccine effectiveness studies. This early finding suggests that a single dose of JYNNEOS vaccine provides some protection against monkeypox infection. The degree and durability of such protection is unknown, and it is recommended that people who are eligible for monkeypox vaccination receive the complete 2-dose series.

Reduced Risk for Mpox After Receipt of 1 or 2 Doses of JYNNEOS Vaccine Compared with Risk Among Unvaccinated Persons - 43 U.S. Jurisdictions, July 31-October 1, 2022.

As of October 28, 2022, a total of 28,244* monkeypox (mpox) cases have been reported in the United States during an outbreak that has disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) (1). JYNNEOS vaccine (Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine, Bavarian Nordic), administered subcutaneously as a 2-dose (0.5 mL per dose) series (with doses administered 4 weeks apart), was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2019 to prevent smallpox and mpox disease (2); an FDA Emergency Use Authorization issued on August 9, 2022, authorized intradermal administration of 0.1 mL per dose, increasing the number of persons who could be vaccinated with the available vaccine supply† (3). A previous comparison of mpox incidence during July 31-September 3, 2022, among unvaccinated, but vaccine-eligible men aged 18-49 years and those who had received ≥1 JYNNEOS vaccine dose in 32 U.S. jurisdictions, found that incidence among unvaccinated persons was 14 times that among vaccinated persons (95% CI = 5.0-41.0) (4). During September 4-October 1, 2022, a total of 205,504 persons received JYNNEOS vaccine dose 2 in the United States.§ To further examine mpox incidence among persons who were unvaccinated and those who had received either 1 or 2 JYNNEOS doses, investigators analyzed data on 9,544 reported mpox cases among men¶ aged 18-49 years during July 31-October 1, 2022, from 43 U.S. jurisdictions,** by vaccination status. During this study period, mpox incidence (cases per 100,000 population at risk) among unvaccinated persons was 7.4 (95% CI = 6.0-9.1) times that among persons who received only 1 dose of JYNNEOS vaccine ≥14 days earlier and 9.6 (95% CI = 6.9-13.2) times that among persons who received dose 2 ≥14 days earlier. The observed distribution of subcutaneous and intradermal routes of administration of dose 1 among vaccinated persons with mpox was not different from the expected distribution. This report provides additional data suggesting JYNNEOS vaccine provides protection against mpox, irrespective of whether the vaccine is administered intradermally or subcutaneously. The degree and durability of such protection remains unclear. Persons eligible for mpox vaccination should receive the complete 2-dose series to optimize strength of protection†† (5).

Clinical and Epidemiological Findings from Enhanced Monkeypox Surveillance in Tshuapa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo During 2011-2015.

BACKGROUND: Monkeypox is a poorly described emerging zoonosis endemic to Central and Western Africa. METHODS: Using surveillance data from Tshuapa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo during 2011-2015, we evaluated differences in incidence, exposures, and clinical presentation of polymerase chain reaction-confirmed cases by sex and age. RESULTS: We report 1057 confirmed cases. The average annual incidence was 14.1 per 100 000 (95% confidence interval, 13.3-15.0). The incidence was higher in male patients (incidence rate ratio comparing males to females, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.37), except among those 20-29 years old (0.70; .51-.95). Females aged 20-29 years also reported a high frequency of exposures (26.2%) to people with monkeypox-like symptoms.The highest incidence was among 10-19-year-old males, the cohort reporting the highest proportion of animal exposures (37.5%). The incidence was lower among those presumed to have received smallpox vaccination than among those presumed unvaccinated. No differences were observed by age group in lesion count or lesion severity score. CONCLUSIONS: Monkeypox incidence was twice that reported during 1980-1985, an increase possibly linked to declining immunity provided by smallpox vaccination. The high proportion of cases attributed to human exposures suggests changing exposure patterns. Cases were distributed across age and sex, suggesting frequent exposures that follow sociocultural norms.

Low SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Elementary Schools - Salt Lake County, Utah, December 3, 2020-January 31, 2021.

School closures affected more than 55 million students across the United States when implemented as a strategy to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 (1). Reopening schools requires balancing the risks for SARS-CoV-2 infection to students and staff members against the benefits of in-person learning (2). During December 3, 2020-January 31, 2021, CDC investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 20 elementary schools (kindergarten through grade 6) that had reopened in Salt Lake County, Utah. The 7-day cumulative number of new COVID-19 cases in Salt Lake County during this time ranged from 290 to 670 cases per 100,000 persons.† Susceptible§ school contacts¶ (students and staff members exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in school) of 51 index patients** (40 students and 11 staff members) were offered SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing. Among 1,041 susceptible school contacts, 735 (70.6%) were tested, and five of 12 cases identified were classified as school-associated; the secondary attack rate among tested susceptible school contacts was 0.7%. Mask use among students was high (86%), and the median distance between students' seats in classrooms was 3 ft. Despite high community incidence and an inability to maintain ≥6 ft of distance between students at all times, SARS-CoV-2 transmission was low in these elementary schools. The results from this investigation add to the increasing evidence that in-person learning can be achieved with minimal SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk when multiple measures to prevent transmission are implemented (3,4).

Geographic distribution and genetic characterization of poxviruses from human infections in Georgia, 2009-2014.

Anthrax is endemic in Georgia, as are multiple zoonotic poxviruses. Poxvirus-associated infections share some clinical manifestations and exposure risks with anthrax, and so it is important to distinguish between the two. With this in mind, an archived collection of anthrax-negative DNA samples was retrospectively screened for poxviruses, and of the 148 human samples tested, 64 were positive. Sequence analysis confirmed the presence of orf virus, bovine papular stomatitis virus, and pseudocowpox virus. This study provides evidence of previously unrecognized poxvirus infections in Georgia and highlights the benefit of the timely identification of such infections by improving laboratory capacity.

Progressive Vaccinia Acquired through Zoonotic Transmission in a Patient with HIV/AIDS, Colombia.

In March 2015, a patient in Colombia with HIV/AIDS was hospitalized for disseminated ulcers after milking cows that had vesicular lesions on their udders. Vaccinia virus was detected, and the case met criteria for progressive vaccinia acquired by zoonotic transmission. Adherence to an optimized antiretroviral regimen resulted in recovery.

Isolation and Characterization of Akhmeta Virus from Wild-Caught Rodents (Apodemus spp.) in Georgia.

In 2013, a novel orthopoxvirus was detected in skin lesions of two cattle herders from the Kakheti region of Georgia (country); this virus was named Akhmeta virus. Subsequent investigation of these cases revealed that small mammals in the area had serological evidence of orthopoxvirus infections, suggesting their involvement in the maintenance of these viruses in nature. In October 2015, we began a longitudinal study assessing the natural history of orthopoxviruses in Georgia. As part of this effort, we trapped small mammals near Akhmeta (n = 176) and Gudauri (n = 110). Here, we describe the isolation and molecular characterization of Akhmeta virus from lesion material and pooled heart and lung samples collected from five wood mice (Apodemus uralensis and Apodemus flavicollis) in these two locations. The genomes of Akhmeta virus obtained from rodents group into 2 clades: one clade represented by viruses isolated from A. uralensis samples, and one clade represented by viruses isolated from A. flavicollis samples. These genomes also display several presumptive recombination events for which gene truncation and identity have been examined.IMPORTANCE Akhmeta virus is a unique Orthopoxvirus that was described in 2013 from the country of Georgia. This paper presents the first isolation of this virus from small mammal (Rodentia; Apodemus spp.) samples and the molecular characterization of those isolates. The identification of the virus in small mammals is an essential component to understanding the natural history of this virus and its transmission to human populations and could guide public health interventions in Georgia. Akhmeta virus genomes harbor evidence suggestive of recombination with a variety of other orthopoxviruses; this has implications for the evolution of orthopoxviruses, their ability to infect mammalian hosts, and their ability to adapt to novel host species.

Epidemiologic and Ecologic Investigations of Monkeypox, Likouala Department, Republic of the Congo, 2017.

Monkeypox, caused by a zoonotic orthopoxvirus, is endemic in Central and West Africa. Monkeypox has been sporadically reported in the Republic of the Congo. During March 22-April 5, 2017, we investigated 43 suspected human monkeypox cases. We interviewed suspected case-patients and collected dried blood strips and vesicular and crust specimens (active lesions), which we tested for orthopoxvirus antibodies by ELISA and monkeypox virus and varicella zoster virus DNA by PCR. An ecologic investigation was conducted around Manfouété, and specimens from 105 small mammals were tested for anti-orthopoxvirus antibodies or DNA. Among the suspected human cases, 22 met the confirmed, probable, and possible case definitions. Only 18 patients had available dried blood strips; 100% were IgG positive, and 88.9% (16/18) were IgM positive. Among animals, only specimens from Cricetomys giant pouched rats showed presence of orthopoxvirus antibodies, adding evidence to this species' involvement in the transmission and maintenance of monkeypox virus in nature.

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors Possibly Associated with Emerging Zoonotic Vaccinia Virus in a Farming Community, Colombia.

In 2014, vaccinia virus (VACV) infections were identified among farmworkers in Caquetá Department, Colombia; additional cases were identified in Cundinamarca Department in 2015. VACV, an orthopoxvirus (OPXV) used in the smallpox vaccine, has caused sporadic bovine and human outbreaks in countries such as Brazil and India. In response to the emergence of this disease in Colombia, we surveyed and collected blood from 134 farmworkers and household members from 56 farms in Cundinamarca Department. We tested serum samples for OPXV antibodies and correlated risk factors with seropositivity by using multivariate analyses. Fifty-two percent of farmworkers had OPXV antibodies; this percentage decreased to 31% when we excluded persons who would have been eligible for smallpox vaccination. The major risk factors for seropositivity were municipality, age, smallpox vaccination scar, duration of time working on a farm, and animals having vaccinia-like lesions. This investigation provides evidence for possible emergence of VACV as a zoonosis in South America.

Novel Poxvirus in Proliferative Lesions of Wild Rodents in East Central Texas, USA.

Northern pygmy mice from 2 localities in East Central Texas, USA, had proliferative epidermal lesions on the tail and feet. Electron microscopy of lesion tissue revealed poxvirus. Phylogenetic analyses indicated the virus differed 35% from its closest relatives, the Chordopoxvirinae. Future research is needed to determine whether this virus could affect human health.

Emergence of Monkeypox - West and Central Africa, 1970-2017.

The recent apparent increase in human monkeypox cases across a wide geographic area, the potential for further spread, and the lack of reliable surveillance have raised the level of concern for this emerging zoonosis. In November 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO), in collaboration with CDC, hosted an informal consultation on monkeypox with researchers, global health partners, ministries of health, and orthopoxvirus experts to review and discuss human monkeypox in African countries where cases have been recently detected and also identify components of surveillance and response that need improvement. Endemic human monkeypox has been reported from more countries in the past decade than during the previous 40 years. Since 2016, confirmed cases of monkeypox have occurred in Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, and Sierra Leone and in captive chimpanzees in Cameroon. Many countries with endemic monkeypox lack recent experience and specific knowledge about the disease to detect cases, treat patients, and prevent further spread of the virus. Specific improvements in surveillance capacity, laboratory diagnostics, and infection control measures are needed to launch an efficient response. Further, gaps in knowledge about the epidemiology and ecology of the virus need to be addressed to design, recommend, and implement needed prevention and control measures.

Detection and Molecular Characterization of Zoonotic Poxviruses Circulating in the Amazon Region of Colombia, 2014.

During 2014, cutaneous lesions were reported in dairy cattle and farmworkers in the Amazon Region of western Colombia. Samples from 6 patients were analyzed by serologic and PCR testing, and results demonstrated the presence of vaccinia virus and pseudocowpox virus. These findings highlight the need for increased poxvirus surveillance in Colombia.