Seroconversion and seroprevalence of TORCH infections in a pregnant women cohort study, Mombasa, Kenya, 2017-2019.

Women infected during pregnancy with TORCH (Toxoplasmosis, Other, Rubella, Cytomegalovirus, and Herpes simplex viruses) pathogens have a higher risk of adverse birth outcomes including stillbirth / miscarriage because of mother-to-child transmission. To investigate these risks in pregnant women in Kenya, we analyzed serum specimens from a pregnancy cohort study at three healthcare facilities. A sample of 481 participants was selected for TORCH pathogen antibody testing to determine seroprevalence. A random selection of 285 from the 481 participants was selected to measure seroconversion. These sera were tested using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay against 10 TORCH pathogens. We found that the seroprevalence of all but three of the 10 TORCH pathogens at enrollment was >30%, except for Bordetella pertussis (3.8%), Treponema pallidum (11.4%), and varicella zoster virus (0.5%). Conversely, very few participants seroconverted during their pregnancy and were herpes simplex virus type 2 (n = 24, 11.2%), parvovirus B19 (n = 14, 6.2%), and rubella (n = 12, 5.1%). For birth outcomes, 88% of the participant had live births and 12% had stillbirths or miscarriage. Cytomegalovirus positivity at enrolment had a statistically significant positive association with a live birth outcome (p = 0.0394). Of the 10 TORCH pathogens tested, none had an association with adverse pregnancy outcome.

Risk factors of adverse birth outcomes among a cohort of pregnant women in Coastal Kenya, 2017-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Adverse birth outcomes particularly preterm births and congenital anomalies, are the leading causes of infant mortality globally, and the burden is highest in developing countries. We set out to determine the frequency of adverse birth outcomes and the risk factors associated with such outcomes in a cohort of pregnant women in Kenya. METHODS: From October 2017 to July 2019, pregnant women < 28 weeks gestation were enrolled and followed up until delivery in three hospitals in coastal Kenya. Newborns were examined at delivery. Among women with birth outcome data, we assessed the frequency of congenital anomalies defined as gastroschisis, umbilical hernia, limb abnormalities and Trisomy 21, and adverse birth outcomes, defined as either stillbirth, miscarriage, preterm birth, small for gestational age, or microcephaly. We used log-binomial regression to identify maternal characteristics associated with the presence of at least one adverse outcome. RESULTS: Among the 2312 women enrolled, 1916 (82.9%) had birth outcome data. Overall, 402/1916 (20.9%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 19.1-22.8) pregnancies had adverse birth outcomes. Specifically, 66/1916 (3.4%; 95% CI: 2.7-4.4) were stillbirths, 34/1916 (1.8%; 95% CI: 1.2-2.4) were miscarriages and 23/1816 (1.2%; 95% CI: 0.8-1.9) had congenital anomalies. Among the participants with anthropometric measurements data, 142/1200 (11.8%; 95% CI: 10.1 - 13.8) were small for gestational age and among the participants with ultrasound records, 143/1711 (8.4%; 95% CI: 7.1-9.8) were preterm. Febrile illnesses in current pregnancy (adjusted risk ratio (aRR): 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1-2.8), a history of poor birth outcomes in prior pregnancy (aRR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3-2.4) and high blood pressure in pregnancy (aRR: 3.9, 95% CI: (1.7-9.2) were independently associated with adverse birth outcomes in a model that included age, education, human immunodeficiency virus status and high blood pressure at enrolment. CONCLUSION: We found similar rates of overall adverse birth outcomes, congenital anomalies, and small for gestational age but higher rates of stillbirths and lower rates of prematurity compared to the rates that have been reported in the sub-Saharan Africa region. However, the rates of adverse birth outcomes in this study were comparable to other studies conducted in Kenya. Febrile illnesses during the current pregnancy, previous history of poor birth outcomes and high blood pressure in pregnancy are predictive of an increased risk of adverse birth outcomes.

A mixed methods assessment of knowledge, attitudes and practices related to aflatoxin contamination and exposure among caregivers of children under 5 years in western Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: Identifying factors that may influence aflatoxin exposure in children under 5 years of age living in farming households in western Kenya. DESIGN: We used a mixed methods design. The quantitative component entailed serial cross-sectional interviews in 250 farming households to examine crop processing and conservation practices, household food storage and consumption and local understandings of aflatoxins. Qualitative data collection included focus group discussions (N 7) and key informant interviews (N 13) to explore explanations of harvesting and post-harvesting techniques and perceptions of crop spoilage. SETTING: The study was carried out in Asembo, a rural community where high rates of child stunting exist. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 250 female primary caregivers of children under 5 years of age and thirteen experts in farming and food management participated. RESULTS: Study results showed that from a young age, children routinely ate maize-based dishes. Economic constraints and changing environmental patterns guided the application of sub-optimal crop practices involving early harvest, poor drying, mixing spoiled with good cereals and storing cereals in polypropylene bags in confined quarters occupied by humans and livestock and raising risks of aflatoxin contamination. Most (80 %) smallholder farmers were unaware of aflatoxins and their harmful economic and health consequences. CONCLUSIONS: Young children living in subsistence farming households may be at risk of exposure to aflatoxins and consequent ill health and stunting. Sustained efforts to increase awareness of the risks of aflatoxins and control measures among subsistence farmers could help to mitigate practices that raise exposure.

Healthcare-seeking behavior for respiratory illnesses in Kenya: implications for burden of disease estimation.

BACKGROUND: Understanding healthcare-seeking patterns for respiratory illness can help improve estimation of disease burden and target public health interventions to control acute respiratory disease in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey to determine healthcare utilization patterns for acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe pneumonia in four diverse counties representing urban, peri-urban, rural mixed farmers, and rural pastoralist communities in Kenya using a two-stage (sub-locations then households) cluster sampling procedure. Healthcare seeking behavior for ARI episodes in the last 14 days, and severe pneumonia in the last 12 months was evaluated. Severe pneumonia was defined as reported cough and difficulty breathing for > 2 days and report of hospitalization or recommendation for hospitalization, or a danger sign (unable to breastfeed/drink, vomiting everything, convulsions, unconscious) for children < 5 years, or report of inability to perform routine chores. RESULTS: From August through September 2018, we interviewed 28,072 individuals from 5,407 households. Of those surveyed, 9.2% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.9-10.7) reported an episode of ARI, and 4.2% (95% CI 3.8-4.6) reported an episode of severe pneumonia. Of the reported ARI cases, 40.0% (95% CI 36.8-43.3) sought care at a health facility. Of the74.2% (95% CI 70.2-77.9) who reported severe pneumonia and visited a medical health facility, 28.9% (95% CI 25.6-32.6) were hospitalized and 7.0% (95% CI 5.4-9.1) were referred by a clinician to the hospital but not hospitalized. 21% (95% CI 18.2-23.6) of self-reported severe pneumonias were hospitalized. Children aged < 5 years and persons in households with a higher socio-economic status were more likely to seek care for respiratory illness at a health facility. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that hospital-based surveillance captures less than one quarter of severe pneumonia in the community. Multipliers from community household surveys can account for underutilization of healthcare resources and under-ascertainment of severe pneumonia at hospitals.

Prevalence of microcephaly and Zika virus infection in a pregnancy cohort in Kenya, 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV), first discovered in Uganda in 1947, re-emerged globally in 2013 and was later associated with microcephaly and other birth defects. We determined the incidence of ZIKV infection and its association with adverse pregnancy and fetal outcomes in a pregnancy cohort in Kenya. METHODS: From October 2017 to July 2019, we recruited and followed up women aged ≥ 15 years and ≤ 28 weeks pregnant in three hospitals in coastal Mombasa. Monthly follow-up included risk factor questions and a blood sample collected for ZIKV serology. We collected anthropometric measures (including head circumference), cord blood, venous blood from newborns, and any evidence of birth defects. Microcephaly was defined as a head circumference (HC) < 2 standard deviations (SD) for sex and gestational age. Severe microcephaly was defined as HC < 3 SD for sex and age. We tested sera for anti-ZIKV IgM antibodies using capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and confirmed positives using the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT90) for ZIKV and for dengue (DENV) on the samples that were ZIKV neutralizing antibody positive. We collected blood and urine from participants reporting fever or rash for ZIKV testing. RESULTS: Of 2889 pregnant women screened for eligibility, 2312 (80%) were enrolled. Of 1916 recorded deliveries, 1816 (94.6%) were live births and 100 (5.2%) were either stillbirths or spontaneous abortions (< 22 weeks of gestation). Among 1236 newborns with complete anthropometric measures, 11 (0.9%) had microcephaly and 3 (0.2%) had severe microcephaly. A total of 166 (7.2%) participants were positive for anti-ZIKV IgM, 136 of whom became seropositive during follow-up. Among the 166 anti-ZIKV IgM positive, 3 and 18 participants were further seropositive for ZIKV and DENV neutralizing antibodies, respectively. Of these 3 and 18 pregnant women, one and 13 (72.2%) seroconverted with antibodies to ZIKV and DENV, respectively. All 308 samples (serum and urine samples collected during sick visits and samples that were anti-ZIKV IgM positive) tested by RT-PCR were negative for ZIKV. No adverse pregnancy or neonatal outcomes were reported among the three participants with confirmed ZIKV exposure. Among newborns from pregnant women with DENV exposure, four (22.2%) were small for gestational age and one (5.6%) had microcephaly. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of severe microcephaly among newborns in coastal Kenya was high relative to published estimates from facility-based studies in Europe and Latin America, but little evidence of ZIKV transmission. There is a need for improved surveillance for microcephaly and other congenital malformations in Kenya.

Low-Level Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus among Camel Handlers, Kenya, 2019.

Although seroprevalence of Middle East respiratory coronavirus syndrome is high among camels in Africa, researchers have not detected zoonotic transmission in Kenya. We followed a cohort of 262 camel handlers in Kenya during April 2018-March 2020. We report PCR-confirmed Middle East respiratory coronavirus syndrome in 3 asymptomatic handlers.

Spatial clustering of livestock Anthrax events associated with agro-ecological zones in Kenya, 1957-2017.

BACKGROUND: Developing disease risk maps for priority endemic and episodic diseases is becoming increasingly important for more effective disease management, particularly in resource limited countries. For endemic and easily diagnosed diseases such as anthrax, using historical data to identify hotspots and start to define ecological risk factors of its occurrence is a plausible approach. Using 666 livestock anthrax events reported in Kenya over 60 years (1957-2017), we determined the temporal and spatial patterns of the disease as a step towards identifying and characterizing anthrax hotspots in the region. METHODS: Data were initially aggregated by administrative unit and later analyzed by agro-ecological zones (AEZ) to reveal anthrax spatio-temporal trends and patterns. Variations in the occurrence of anthrax events were estimated by fitting Poisson generalized linear mixed-effects models to the data with AEZs and calendar months as fixed effects and sub-counties as random effects. RESULTS: The country reported approximately 10 anthrax events annually, with the number increasing to as many as 50 annually by the year 2005. Spatial classification of the events in eight counties that reported the highest numbers revealed spatial clustering in certain administrative sub-counties, with 12% of the sub-counties responsible for over 30% of anthrax events, whereas 36% did not report any anthrax disease over the 60-year period. When segregated by AEZs, there was significantly greater risk of anthrax disease occurring in agro-alpine, high, and medium potential AEZs when compared to the agriculturally low potential arid and semi-arid AEZs of the country (p < 0.05). Interestingly, cattle were > 10 times more likely to be infected by B. anthracis than sheep, goats, or camels. There was lower risk of anthrax events in August (P = 0.034) and December (P = 0.061), months that follow long and short rain periods, respectively. CONCLUSION: Taken together, these findings suggest existence of certain geographic, ecological, and demographic risk factors that promote B. anthracis persistence and trasmission in the disease hotspots.

Zika Virus Detection with 2013 Serosurvey, Mombasa, Kenya.

Acute Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has not been confirmed in Kenya. In 2018, we used specimens collected in a 2013 dengue serosurvey study in Mombasa to test for ZIKV IgM. We confirmed specific ZIKV IgM positivity in 5 persons. These results suggest recent ZIKV transmission in the coastal region of Kenya.

Comparison of knowledge, attitude, and practices of animal and human brucellosis between nomadic pastoralists and non-pastoralists in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The seroprevalence of brucellosis among nomadic pastoralists and their livestock in arid lands is reported to be over10-fold higher than non-pastoralists farmers and their livestock in Kenya. Here, we compared the seroprevalence of nomadic pastoralists and mixed farming with their knowledge of the disease and high-risk practices associated with brucellosis infection. METHODS: Across-sectional study was conducted in two counties - Kiambu County where farmers primarily practice smallholder livestock production and crop farming, and Marsabit County where farmers practice nomadic pastoral livestock production. Stratified random sampling was applied, in which sublocations were initially selected based on predominant livestock production system, before selecting households using randomly generated geographical coordinates. In each household, up to three persons aged 5 years and above were randomly selected, consented, and tested for Brucella spp IgG antibodies. A structured questionnaire was administered to the household head and selected individuals on disease knowledge and risky practices among the pastoralists and mixed farmers compared. Multivariable mixed effects logistic regression model was used to assess independent practices associated with human Brucella spp. IgG seropositivity. RESULTS: While the majority (74%) of pastoralist households had little to no formal education when compared to mixed (8%), over 70% of all households (pastoralists and mixed farmers) had heard of brucellosis and mentioned its clinical presentation in humans. However, fewer than 30% of all participants (pastoralists and mixed farmers) knew how brucellosis is transmitted between animals and humans or how its transmission can be prevented. Despite their comparable knowledge, significantly more seropositive pastoralists compared to mixed farmers engaged in risky practices including consuming unboiled milk (79.5% vs 1.7%, p < 0.001) and raw blood (28.3% vs 0.4%, p < 0.001), assisting in animal birth (43.0% vs 9.3%, p < 0.001), and handling raw hides (30.6% vs 5.5%, p < 0.001). , CONCLUSION: Nomadic pastoralists are more likely to engage in risky practices that promote Brucella Infection, probably because of their occupation and culture, despite having significant knowledge of the disease.

Reassessment of high prevalence human adenovirus detections among residents of two refugee centers in Kenya under surveillance for acute respiratory infections.

Human adenoviruses (HAdVs) were previously detected at high prevalence by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) in the upper respiratory tract of residents of two Kenyan refugee camps under surveillance for acute respiratory infection (ARI) between October 2006 and April 2008. We sought to confirm this finding and characterize the HAdVs detected. Of 2148 respiratory specimens originally tested, 511 (23.8%) screened positive for HAdV and 510 were available for retesting. Of these, 421 (82.4%) were confirmed positive by repeat rRT-PCR or PCR and sequencing. Other respiratory viruses were codetected in 55.8% of confirmed HAdV-positive specimens. Species B and C viruses predominated at 82.8%, and HAdV-C1, -C2, and -B3 were the most commonly identified types. Species A, D, and F HAdVs, which are rarely associated with ARI, comprised the remainder. Viral loads were highest among species B HAdVs, particularly HAdV-B3. Species C showed the widest range of viral loads, and species A, D, and F were most often present at low loads and more often with codetections. These findings suggest that many HAdV detections were incidental and not a primary cause of ARI among camp patients. Species/type, codetections, and viral load determinations may permit more accurate HAdV disease burden estimates in these populations.

Successes and challenges of the One Health approach in Kenya over the last decade.

More than 75% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic in origin and a transdisciplinary, multi-sectoral One Health approach is a key strategy for their effective prevention and control. In 2004, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention office in Kenya (CDC Kenya) established the Global Disease Detection Division of which one core component was to support, with other partners, the One Health approach to public health science. After catalytic events such as the global expansion of highly pathogenic H5N1 and the 2006 East African multi-country outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever, CDC Kenya supported key Kenya government institutions including the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries to establish a framework for multi-sectoral collaboration at national and county level and a coordination office referred to as the Zoonotic Disease Unit (ZDU). The ZDU has provided Kenya with an institutional framework to highlight the public health importance of endemic and epidemic zoonoses including RVF, rabies, brucellosis, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, anthrax and other emerging issues such as anti-microbial resistance through capacity building programs, surveillance, workforce development, research, coordinated investigation and outbreak response. This has led to improved outbreak response, and generated data (including discovery of new pathogens) that has informed disease control programs to reduce burden of and enhance preparedness for endemic and epidemic zoonotic diseases, thereby enhancing global health security. Since 2014, the Global Health Security Agenda implemented through CDC Kenya and other partners in the country has provided additional impetus to maintain this effort and Kenya's achievement now serves as a model for other countries in the region.Significant gaps remain in implementation of the One Health approach at subnational administrative levels; there are sustainability concerns, competing priorities and funding deficiencies.

Building laboratory capacity to detect and characterize pathogens of public and global health security concern in Kenya.

Since 1979, multiple CDC Kenya programs have supported the development of diagnostic expertise and laboratory capacity in Kenya. In 2004, CDC's Global Disease Detection (GDD) program within the Division of Global Health Protection in Kenya (DGHP-Kenya) initiated close collaboration with Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) and developed a laboratory partnership called the Diagnostic and Laboratory Systems Program (DLSP). DLSP built onto previous efforts by malaria, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB) programs and supported the expansion of the diagnostic expertise and capacity in KEMRI and the Ministry of Health. First, DLSP developed laboratory capacity for surveillance of diarrheal, respiratory, zoonotic and febrile illnesses to understand the etiology burden of these common illnesses and support evidenced-based decisions on vaccine introductions and recommendations in Kenya. Second, we have evaluated and implemented new diagnostic technologies such as TaqMan Array Cards (TAC) to detect emerging or reemerging pathogens and have recently added a next generation sequencer (NGS). Third, DLSP provided rapid laboratory diagnostic support for outbreak investigation to Kenya and regional countries. Fourth, DLSP has been assisting the Kenya National Public Health laboratory-National Influenza Center and microbiology reference laboratory to obtain World Health Organization (WHO) certification and ISO15189 accreditation respectively. Fifth, we have supported biosafety and biosecurity curriculum development to help Kenyan laboratories safely and appropriately manage infectious pathogens. These achievements, highlight how in collaboration with existing CDC programs working on HIV, tuberculosis and malaria, the Global Health Security Agenda can have significantly improve public health in Kenya and the region. Moreover, Kenya provides an example as to how laboratory science can help countries detect and control of infectious disease outbreaks and other public health threats more rapidly, thus enhancing global health security.

Epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus infection in rural and urban Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Information on the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in Africa is limited for crowded urban areas and for rural areas where the prevalence of malaria is high. METHODS: At referral facilities in rural western Kenya and a Nairobi slum, we collected nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swab specimens from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) or severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and from asymptomatic controls. Polymerase chain reaction assays were used for detection of viral pathogens. We calculated age-specific ratios of the odds of RSV detection among patients versus the odds among controls. Incidence was expressed as the number of episodes per 1000 person-years of observation. RESULTS: Between March 2007 and February 2011, RSV was detected in 501 of 4012 NP/OP swab specimens (12.5%) from children and adults in the rural site and in 321 of 2744 NP/OP swab specimens (11.7%) from those in the urban site. Among children aged <5 years, RSV was detected more commonly among rural children with SARI (odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-3.3), urban children with SARI (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 3.1-23.6), and urban children with ILI (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.2-9.6), compared with controls. The incidence of RSV disease was highest among infants with SARI aged <1 year (86.9 and 62.8 episodes per 1000 person-years of observation in rural and urban sites, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: An effective RSV vaccine would likely substantially reduce the burden of respiratory illness among children in rural and urban areas in Africa.

Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.

BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterising recent RVF disease events in East Africa. METHODS: Data on 100 disease events (2008-2022) from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modelled against possible geoecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980 and 2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. RESULTS: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and three livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR, 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geoecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1°C increase in temperature and a 1-unit increase in NDVI, one months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1, 1.2) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.01, 3.71), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed a significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12-0.3°C/decade, p<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (p<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics.

Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.

Background: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterizing recent RVF disease events in East Africa. Methods: Data on 100 disease events (2008 - 2022) from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modeled against possible geo-ecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change, and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980-2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. Results: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and 3 livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geo-ecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1oC increase in temperature and 1-unit increase in NDVI, 1-3 months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios (IRR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1,1.2) and 9.88 (95% CI 0.85, 119.52), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12 to 0.3oC/decade, P<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (P<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics. Key questions: What is already known on this topic?: Rift Valley fever is recognized for its association with heavy rainfall, flooding, and El Niño rains in the East African region. A growing body of recent studies has highlighted a shifting landscape of the disease, marked by an expanding geographic range and an increasing number of small RVF clusters.What this study adds: This study challenges previous beliefs about RVF, revealing that it predominantly occurs in small clusters rather than large outbreaks, and its association with El Niño is not as pronounced as previously thought. Over 65% of these clusters are concentrated in the highlands of Kenya and Uganda, with 35% occurring in previously unaffected regions, accompanied by an increase in temperature and total rainfall between 1980 and 2022, along with a rise in the annual number of rainy days. Notably, the observed rainfall increases are particularly significant during the short-rains season (October-December), aligning with a secondary peak in RVF incidence. In contrast, the lowlands of East Africa, where typical RVF epidemics occur, display smaller and more varied trends in annual rainfall.How this study might affect research, practice, or policy: The worldwide consequence of the expanding RVF cluster is the broader dispersion of the virus, leading to the establishment of new regions with virus endemicity. This escalation heightens the risk of more extensive extreme-weather-associated RVF epidemics in the future. Global public health institutions must persist in developing preparedness and response strategies for such scenarios. This involves the creation and approval of human RVF vaccines and therapeutics, coupled with a rapid distribution plan through regional banks.

Association of the CT values of real-time PCR of viral upper respiratory tract infection with clinical severity, Kenya.

Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assay of the upper respiratory tract is used increasingly to diagnose lower respiratory tract infections. The cycle threshold (CT ) values of qRT-PCR are continuous, semi-quantitative measurements of viral load, although interpretation of diagnostic qRT-PCR results are often categorized as positive, indeterminate, or negative, obscuring potentially useful clinical interpretation of CT values. From 2008 to 2010, naso/oropharyngeal swabs were collected from outpatients with influenza-like illness, inpatients with severe respiratory illness, and asymptomatic controls in rural Kenya. CT values of positive specimens (i.e., CT values < 40.0) were compared by clinical severity category for five viruses using Mann-Whitney U-test and logistic regression. Among children <5 years old we tested with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), inpatients had lower median CT values (27.2) than controls (35.8, P = 0.008) and outpatients (34.7, P < 0.001). Among children and older patients infected with influenza virus, outpatients had the lowest median CT values (29.8 and 24.1, respectively) compared with controls (P = 0.193 for children, P < 0.001 for older participants) and inpatients (P = 0.009 for children, P < 0.001 for older participants). All differences remained significant in logistic regression when controlling for age, days since onset, and coinfection. CT values were similar for adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, and parainfluenza virus in all severity groups. In conclusion, the CT values from the qRT-PCR of upper respiratory tract specimens were associated with clinical severity for some respiratory viruses.

Influenza and malaria coinfection among young children in western Kenya, 2009-2011.

BACKGROUND: Although children <5 years old in sub-Saharan Africa are vulnerable to both malaria and influenza, little is known about coinfection. METHODS: This retrospective, cross-sectional study in rural western Kenya examined outpatient visits and hospitalizations associated with febrile acute respiratory illness (ARI) during a 2-year period (July 2009-June 2011) in children <5 years old. RESULTS: Across sites, 45% (149/331) of influenza-positive patients were coinfected with malaria, whereas only 6% (149/2408) of malaria-positive patients were coinfected with influenza. Depending on age, coinfection was present in 4%-8% of outpatient visits and 1%-3% of inpatient admissions for febrile ARI. Children with influenza were less likely than those without to have malaria (risk ratio [RR], 0.57-0.76 across sites and ages), and children with malaria were less likely than those without to have influenza (RR, 0.36-0.63). Among coinfected children aged 24-59 months, hospital length of stay was 2.7 and 2.8 days longer than influenza-only-infected children at the 2 sites, and 1.3 and 3.1 days longer than those with malaria only (all P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Coinfection with malaria and influenza was uncommon but associated with longer hospitalization than single infections among children 24-59 months of age.

Mapping of cholera hotspots in Kenya using epidemiologic and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) indicators as part of Kenya's new 2022-2030 cholera elimination plan.

Cholera is an issue of major public health importance. It was first reported in Kenya in 1971, with the country experiencing outbreaks through the years, most recently in 2021. Factors associated with the outbreaks in Kenya include open defecation, population growth with inadequate expansion of safe drinking water and sanitation infrastructure, population movement from neighboring countries, crowded settings such as refugee camps coupled with massive displacement of persons, mass gathering events, and changes in rainfall patterns. The Ministry of Health, together with other ministries and partners, revised the national cholera control plan to a multisectoral cholera elimination plan that is aligned with the Global Roadmap for Ending Cholera. One of the key features in the revised plan is the identification of hotspots. The hotspot identification exercise followed guidance and tools provided by the Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC). Two epidemiological indicators were used to identify the sub-counties with the highest cholera burden: incidence per population and persistence. Additionally, two indicators were used to identify sub-counties with poor WASH coverage due to low proportions of households accessing improved water sources and improved sanitation facilities. The country reported over 25,000 cholera cases between 2015 and 2019. Of 290 sub-counties, 25 (8.6%) sub-counties were identified as a high epidemiological priority; 78 (26.9%) sub-counties were identified as high WASH priority; and 30 (10.3%) sub-counties were considered high priority based on a combination of epidemiological and WASH indicators. About 10% of the Kenyan population (4.89 million) is living in these 30-combination high-priority sub-counties. The novel method used to identify cholera hotspots in Kenya provides useful information to better target interventions in smaller geographical areas given resource constraints. Kenya plans to deploy oral cholera vaccines in addition to WASH interventions to the populations living in cholera hotspots as it targets cholera elimination by 2030.

Comparing performance of year-round and campaign-mode influenza vaccination strategies among children aged 6-23 months in Kenya: 2019-2021.

INTRODUCTION: In 2016, the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group requested additional programmatic and cost effectiveness data to inform the choice of strategy for a national influenza vaccination program among children aged 6-23 months of age. In response, we conducted an influenza vaccine demonstration project to compare the performance of a year-round versus campaign-mode vaccination strategy. Findings from this demonstration project will help identify essential learning lessons for a national program. METHODS: We compared two vaccine delivery strategies: (i) a year-round vaccination strategy where influenza vaccines were administered throughout the year at health facilities. This strategy was implemented in Njoro sub-county in Nakuru (November 2019 to October 2021) and Jomvu sub-county in Mombasa (December 2019 to October 2021), (ii) a campaign-mode vaccination strategy where vaccines were available at health facilities over four months. This strategy was implemented in Nakuru North sub-county in Nakuru (June to September 2021) and Likoni sub-county in Mombasa (July to October 2021). We assessed differences in coverage, dropout rates, vaccine wastage, and operational needs. RESULTS: We observed similar performance between strategies in coverage of the first dose of influenza vaccine (year-round strategy 59.7 %, campaign strategy 63.2 %). The coverage obtained in the year-round sub-counties was similar (Njoro 57.4 %; Jomvu 63.1 %); however, more marked differences between campaign sub-counties were observed (Nakuru North 73.4 %; Likoni 55.2 %). The campaign-mode strategy exceeded the cold chain capacity of participating health facilities, requiring thrice monthly instead of once monthly deliveries, and was associated with a two-fold increase in workload compared to the year-round strategy (168 vaccines administered per day in the campaign strategy versus 83 vaccines administered per day in the year-round strategy). CONCLUSION: Although both strategies had similar coverage levels, the campaign-mode strategy was associated with considerable operational needs that could significantly impact the immunization program.

Costs of seasonal influenza vaccine delivery in a pediatric demonstration project for children aged 6-23 months - Nakuru and Mombasa Counties, Kenya, 2019-2021.

BACKGROUND: During November 2019-October 2021, a pediatric influenza vaccination demonstration project was conducted in four sub-counties in Kenya. The demonstration piloted two different delivery strategies: year-round vaccination and a four-month vaccination campaign. Our objective was to compare the costs of both delivery strategies. METHODS: Cost data were collected using standardized questionnaires and extracted from government and project accounting records. We reported total costs and costs per vaccine dose administered by delivery strategy from the Kenyan government perspective in 2021 US$. Costs were separated into financial costs (monetary expenditures) and economic costs (financial costs plus the value of existing resources). We also separated costs by administrative level (national, regional, county, sub-county, and health facility) and program activity (advocacy and social mobilization; training; distribution, storage, and waste management; service delivery; monitoring; and supervision). RESULTS: The total estimated cost of the pediatric influenza demonstration project was US$ 225,269 (financial) and US$ 326,691 (economic) for the year-round delivery strategy (30,397 vaccine doses administered), compared with US$ 214,753 (financial) and US$ 242,385 (economic) for the campaign strategy (25,404 doses administered). Vaccine purchase represented the largest proportion of costs for both strategies. Excluding vaccine purchase, the cost per dose administered was US$ 1.58 (financial) and US$ 5.84 (economic) for the year-round strategy and US$ 2.89 (financial) and US$ 4.56 (economic) for the campaign strategy. CONCLUSIONS: The financial cost per dose was 83% higher for the campaign strategy than the year-round strategy due to larger expenditures for advocacy and social mobilization, training, and hiring of surge staff for service delivery. However, the economic cost per dose was more comparable for both strategies (year-round 22% higher than campaign), balanced by higher costs of operating equipment and monitoring activities for the year-round strategy. These delivery cost data provide real-world evidence to inform pediatric influenza vaccine introduction in Kenya.