Longitudinal Dynamics of a Blood Transcriptomic Signature of Tuberculosis.

Rationale: Performance of blood transcriptomic tuberculosis (TB) signatures in longitudinal studies and effects of TB-preventive therapy and coinfection with HIV or respiratory organisms on transcriptomic signatures has not been systematically studied. Objectives: We evaluated longitudinal kinetics of an 11-gene blood transcriptomic TB signature, RISK11, and effects of TB-preventive therapy (TPT) and respiratory organisms on RISK11 signature score, in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected individuals. Methods: RISK11 was measured in a longitudinal study of RISK11-guided TPT in HIV-uninfected adults, a cross-sectional respiratory organisms cohort, or a longitudinal study in people living with HIV (PLHIV). HIV-uninfected RISK11+ participants were randomized to TPT or no TPT; RISK11- participants received no TPT. PLHIV received standard-of-care antiretroviral therapy and TPT. In the cross-sectional respiratory organisms cohort, viruses and bacteria in nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were quantified by real-time quantitative PCR. Measurements and Main Results: RISK11+ status was transient in most of the 128 HIV-negative participants with longitudinal samples; more than 70% of RISK11+ participants reverted to RISK11- by 3 months, irrespective of TPT. By comparison, reversion from a RISK11+ state was less common in 645 PLHIV (42.1%). Non-HIV viral and nontuberculous bacterial organisms were detected in 7.2% and 38.9% of the 1,000 respiratory organisms cohort participants, respectively, and among those investigated for TB, 3.8% had prevalent disease. Median RISK11 scores (%) were higher in participants with viral organisms alone (46.7%), viral and bacterial organisms (42.8%), or prevalent TB (85.7%) than those with bacterial organisms other than TB (13.4%) or no organisms (14.2%). RISK11 could not discriminate between prevalent TB and viral organisms. Conclusions: Positive RISK11 signature status is often transient, possibly due to intercurrent viral infection, highlighting potentially important challenges for implementation of these biomarkers as new tools for TB control.

Prospective multicentre head-to-head validation of host blood transcriptomic biomarkers for pulmonary tuberculosis by real-time PCR.

Background: Sensitive point-of-care screening tests are urgently needed to identify individuals at highest risk of tuberculosis. We prospectively tested performance of host-blood transcriptomic tuberculosis signatures. Methods: Adults without suspicion of tuberculosis were recruited from five endemic South African communities. Eight parsimonious host-blood transcriptomic tuberculosis signatures were measured by microfluidic RT-qPCR at enrolment. Upper respiratory swab specimens were tested with a multiplex bacterial-viral RT-qPCR panel in a subset of participants. Diagnostic and prognostic performance for microbiologically confirmed prevalent and incident pulmonary tuberculosis was tested in all participants at baseline and during active surveillance through 15 months follow-up, respectively. Results: Among 20,207 HIV-uninfected and 963 HIV-infected adults screened; 2923 and 861 were enroled. There were 61 HIV-uninfected (weighted prevalence 1.1%) and 10 HIV-infected (prevalence 1.2%) tuberculosis cases at baseline. Parsimonious signature diagnostic performance was superior among symptomatic (AUCs 0.85-0.98) as compared to asymptomatic (AUCs 0.61-0.78) HIV-uninfected participants. Thereafter, 24 HIV-uninfected and 9 HIV-infected participants progressed to incident tuberculosis (1.1 and 1.0 per 100 person-years, respectively). Among HIV-uninfected individuals, prognostic performance for incident tuberculosis occurring within 6-12 months was higher relative to 15 months. 1000 HIV-uninfected participants were tested for respiratory microorganisms and 413 HIV-infected for HIV plasma viral load; 7/8 signature scores were higher (p < 0.05) in participants with viral respiratory infections or detectable HIV viraemia than those without. Conclusions: Several parsimonious tuberculosis transcriptomic signatures met triage test targets among symptomatic participants, and incipient test targets within 6 months. However, the signatures were upregulated with viral infection and offered poor specificity for diagnosing sub-clinical tuberculosis.

Validation of a host blood transcriptomic biomarker for pulmonary tuberculosis in people living with HIV: a prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: A rapid, blood-based triage test that allows targeted investigation for tuberculosis at the point of care could shorten the time to tuberculosis treatment and reduce mortality. We aimed to test the performance of a host blood transcriptomic signature (RISK11) in diagnosing tuberculosis and predicting progression to active pulmonary disease (prognosis) in people with HIV in a community setting. METHODS: In this prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study, adults (aged 18-59 years) with HIV were recruited from five communities in South Africa. Individuals with a history of tuberculosis or household exposure to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis within the past 3 years, comorbid risk factors for tuberculosis, or any condition that would interfere with the study were excluded. RISK11 status was assessed at baseline by real-time PCR; participants and study staff were masked to the result. Participants underwent active surveillance for microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis by providing spontaneously expectorated sputum samples at baseline, if symptomatic during 15 months of follow-up, and at 15 months (the end of the study). The coprimary outcomes were the prevalence and cumulative incidence of tuberculosis disease confirmed by a positive Xpert MTB/RIF, Xpert Ultra, or Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube culture, or a combination of such, on at least two separate sputum samples collected within any 30-day period. FINDINGS: Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 963 participants were assessed for eligibility and 861 were enrolled. Among 820 participants with valid RISK11 results, eight (1%) had prevalent tuberculosis at baseline: seven (2·5%; 95% CI 1·2-5·0) of 285 RISK11-positive participants and one (0·2%; 0·0-1·1) of 535 RISK11-negative participants. The relative risk (RR) of prevalent tuberculosis was 13·1 times (95% CI 2·1-81·6) greater in RISK11-positive participants than in RISK11-negative participants. RISK11 had a diagnostic area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 88·2% (95% CI 77·6-96·7), and a sensitivity of 87·5% (58·3-100·0) and specificity of 65·8% (62·5-69·0) at a predefined score threshold (60%). Of those with RISK11 results, eight had primary endpoint incident tuberculosis during 15 months of follow-up. Tuberculosis incidence was 2·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·7-4·4) in the RISK11-positive group and 0·2 per 100 person-years (0·0-0·5) in the RISK11-negative group. The probability of primary endpoint incident tuberculosis was greater in the RISK11-positive group than in the RISK11-negative group (cumulative incidence ratio 16·0 [95% CI 2·0-129·5]). RISK11 had a prognostic AUC of 80·0% (95% CI 70·6-86·9), and a sensitivity of 88·6% (43·5-98·7) and a specificity of 68·9% (65·3-72·3) for incident tuberculosis at the 60% threshold. INTERPRETATION: RISK11 identified prevalent tuberculosis and predicted risk of progression to incident tuberculosis within 15 months in ambulant people living with HIV. RISK11's performance approached, but did not meet, WHO's target product profile benchmarks for screening and prognostic tests for tuberculosis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the South African Medical Research Council.