Banff 2022 Liver Group Meeting report: Monitoring long-term allograft health.

The Banff Working Group on Liver Allograft Pathology met in September 2022. Participants included hepatologists, surgeons, pathologists, immunologists, and histocompatibility specialists. Presentations and discussions focused on the evaluation of long-term allograft health, including noninvasive and tissue monitoring, immunosuppression optimization, and long-term structural changes. Potential revision of the rejection classification scheme to better accommodate and communicate late T cell-mediated rejection patterns and related structural changes, such as nodular regenerative hyperplasia, were discussed. Improved stratification of long-term maintenance immunosuppression to match the heterogeneity of patient settings will be central to improving long-term patient survival. Such personalized therapeutics are in turn contingent on a better understanding and monitoring of allograft status within a rational decision-making approach, likely to be facilitated in implementation with emerging decision-support tools. Proposed revisions to rejection classification emerging from the meeting include the incorporation of interface hepatitis and fibrosis staging. These will be opened to online testing, modified accordingly, and subject to consensus discussion leading up to the next Banff conference.

A Machine Learning Algorithm Avoids Unnecessary Paracentesis for Exclusion of SBP in Cirrhosis in Resource-limited Settings.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Despite the poor prognosis associated with missed or delayed spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) diagnosis, <15% get timely paracentesis, which persists despite guidelines/education in the United States. Measures to exclude SBP non-invasively where timely paracentesis cannot be performed could streamline this burden. METHODS: Using Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse (VHA-CDW) we included patients with cirrhosis between 2009 and 2019 who underwent timely paracentesis and collected relevant clinical information (demographics, cirrhosis severity, medications, vitals, and comorbidities). XGBoost-models were trained on 75% of the primary cohort, with 25% reserved for testing. The final model was further validated in 2 cohorts: Validation cohort #1: In VHA-CDW, those without prior SBP who received 2nd early paracentesis, and Validation cohort #2: Prospective data from 276 non-electively admitted University hospital patients. RESULTS: Negative predictive values (NPVs) at 5%,10%, and 15% probability cutoffs were examined. Primary cohort: n = 9643 (mean age, 63.1 ± 8.7 years; 97.2% men; SBP, 15.0%) received first early paracentesis. Testing-set NPVs for SBP were 96.5%, 93.0%, and 91.6% at the 5%, 10%, and 15% probability thresholds, respectively. In Validation cohort #1: n = 2844 (mean age, 63.14 ± 8.37 years; 97.1% male; SBP, 9.7%) with NPVs were 98.8%, 95.3%, and 94.5%. In Validation cohort #2: n = 276 (mean age, 56.08 ± 9.09; 59.6% male; SBP, 7.6%) with NPVs were 100%, 98.9%, and 98.0% The final machine learning model showed the greatest net benefit on decision-curve analyses. CONCLUSIONS: A machine learning model generated using routinely collected variables excluded SBP with high NPV. Applying this model could ease the need to provide paracentesis in resource-limited settings by excluding those unlikely to have SBP.

Primary prophylaxis for spontaneous bacterial peritonitis is linked to antibiotic resistance in the Veterans Health Administration.

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a major cause of mortality. Although SBP primary prophylaxis (SBPPr) with fluoroquinolones and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) is often used, resistance could reduce its benefit. AIM: Analyze peritoneal fluid resistance patterns in patients with a first SBP episode with/without SBPPr using the Veterans Health Administration corporate data warehouse and to evaluate national antibiograms. Corporate data warehouse data were extracted using validated International Classification of Disease-9/10 codes, culture, resistance data, and outcomes of 7553 patients who developed their first inpatient SBP between 2009 and 2019 and compared between those with/without SBPPr. Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) and Klebsiella pneumoniae ( K. pneumoniae ) sensitivity to ciprofloxacin and TMP-SMX was calculated using 2021 Veterans Health Administration antibiogram data from all states. The most common isolates were E. coli , K. pneumoniae , and Staphylococcus species. Veterans taking ciprofloxacin SBBPr had higher fluoroquinolone resistance (34% vs 14% no SBPPr, p <0.0001); those taking TMP-SMX had higher TMP-SMX resistance (40% vs 14%, p <0.0001). SBPPr patients showed higher culture positivity, greater length of stay, higher second SBP, and higher probability of liver transplant rates versus no SBPPr. Multivariable models showed SBBPr to be the only variable associated with gram-negative resistance, and SBPPr was associated with a trend toward longer length of stay. E. coli ciprofloxacin sensitivity rates were 50%-87% and 43%-92% for TMP-SMX. K. pneumoniae ciprofloxacin sensitivity was 76%-100% and 72%-100% for TMP-SMX. CONCLUSION: Among patients who developed their first SBP episode, there was a higher prevalence of antibiotic resistance in those on SBPPr, with a high rate of fluoroquinolone resistance across the Veterans Health Administration sites.

Admission Serum Metabolites and Thyroxine Predict Advanced Hepatic Encephalopathy in a Multicenter Inpatient Cirrhosis Cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Grades 3 to 4 hepatic encephalopathy (advanced HE), also termed brain failure, is an organ failure that defines acute-on-chronic liver failure. It is associated with poor outcomes in cirrhosis but cannot be predicted accurately. We aimed to determine the admission metabolomic biomarkers able to predict the development of advanced HE with subsequent validation. METHODS: Prospective inpatient cirrhosis cohorts (multicenter and 2-center validation) without brain failure underwent admission serum collection and inpatient follow-up evaluation. Serum metabolomics were analyzed to predict brain failure on random forest analysis and logistic regression. A separate validation cohort also was recruited. RESULTS: The multicenter cohort included 602 patients, of whom 144 developed brain failure (105 only brain failure) 3 days after admission. Unadjusted random forest analysis showed that higher admission microbially derived metabolites and lower isoleucine, thyroxine, and lysophospholipids were associated with brain failure development (area under the curve, 0.87 all; 0.90 brain failure only). Logistic regression area under the curve with only clinical variables significantly improved with metabolites (95% CI 0.65-0.75; P = .005). Four metabolites that significantly added to brain failure prediction were low thyroxine and maltose and high methyl-4-hydroxybenzoate sulfate and 3-4 dihydroxy butyrate. Thyroxine alone also significantly added to the model (P = .05). The validation cohort including 81 prospectively enrolled patients, of whom 11 developed brain failure. Admission hospital laboratory thyroxine levels predicted brain failure development despite controlling for clinical variables with high specificity. CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter inpatient cohort, admission serum metabolites, including thyroxine, predicted advanced HE development independent of clinical factors. Admission low local laboratory thyroxine levels were validated as a predictor of advanced HE development in a separate cohort.

Role of Oral Health, Frailty, and Minimal Hepatic Encephalopathy in the Risk of Hospitalization: A Prospective Multi-Center Cohort of Outpatients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hospitalizations are a sentinel event in cirrhosis; however, the changing demographics in patients with cirrhosis require updated hospitalization prediction models. Periodontitis is a risk factor for liver disease and potentially progression. The aim of this study was to determine factors, including poor oral health, associated with 3-month hospitalizations in a multi-center cohort of outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: North American Consortium for Study of End-stage Liver Disease (NACSELD-3), a new study cohort, recruits outpatients with cirrhosis. Cirrhosis details, demographics, minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE), frailty, and comorbid conditions including oral health were collected. All patients were followed for 3 months for nonelective hospitalizations. Multi-variable models were created for this outcome using demographics, cirrhosis details, oral health, MHE, frailty, and comorbid conditions with K-fold internal validation using 25%/75% split. RESULTS: A total of 442 outpatients (70% men; 37% compensated; Model for End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium, 12; 42% ascites; and 33% prior HE) were included. MHE was found in 70%, frailty in 10%; and both in 8%. In terms of oral health, 15% were edentulous and 10% had prior periodontitis. Regarding 3-month hospitalizations, 14% were admitted for mostly liver-related reasons. These patients were more likely to be decompensated with higher cirrhosis complications, MHE, frailty and periodontitis history. Multi-variable analysis showed prior periodontitis (P = .026), composite MHE + frailty score (P = .0016), ascites (P = .004), prior HE (P = .008), and hydrothorax (P = .004) were associated with admissions using the training and validation subsets. CONCLUSIONS: In a contemporaneous, prospective, multi-center cohort study in outpatients with cirrhosis, poor oral health is significantly associated with 3-month hospitalizations independent of portal hypertensive complications, MHE, and frailty. Potential strategies to reduce hospitalizations should consider oral evaluation in addition to MHE and frailty assessment in practice pathways.

Molecular Signature Predictive of Long-Term Liver Fibrosis Progression to Inform Antifibrotic Drug Development.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is a major unmet need to assess the prognostic impact of antifibrotics in clinical trials because of the slow rate of liver fibrosis progression. We aimed to develop a surrogate biomarker to predict future fibrosis progression. METHODS: A fibrosis progression signature (FPS) was defined to predict fibrosis progression within 5 years in patients with hepatitis C virus and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with no to minimal fibrosis at baseline (n = 421) and was validated in an independent NAFLD cohort (n = 78). The FPS was used to assess response to 13 candidate antifibrotics in organotypic ex vivo cultures of clinical fibrotic liver tissues (n = 78) and cenicriviroc in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis enrolled in a clinical trial (n = 19, NCT02217475). A serum protein-based surrogate FPS was developed and tested in a cohort of compensated cirrhosis patients (n = 122). RESULTS: A 20-gene FPS was defined and validated in an independent NAFLD cohort (adjusted odds ratio, 10.93; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.86). Among computationally inferred fibrosis-driving FPS genes, BCL2 was confirmed as a potential pharmacologic target using clinical liver tissues. Systematic ex vivo evaluation of 13 candidate antifibrotics identified rational combination therapies based on epigallocatechin gallate, which were validated for enhanced antifibrotic effect in ex vivo culture of clinical liver tissues. In patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis treated with cenicriviroc, FPS modulation was associated with 1-year fibrosis improvement accompanied by suppression of the E2F pathway. Induction of the PPARα pathway was absent in patients without fibrosis improvement, suggesting a benefit of combining PPARα agonism to improve the antifibrotic efficacy of cenicriviroc. A 7-protein serum protein-based surrogate FPS was associated with the development of decompensation in cirrhosis patients. CONCLUSION: The FPS predicts long-term fibrosis progression in an etiology-agnostic manner, which can inform antifibrotic drug development.

Early paracentesis is associated with better prognosis compared with late or no-paracentesis in hospitalized veterans with cirrhosis and ascites.

Guidelines recommend that all hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and ascites receive an early (<24 h from admission) paracentesis. However, national data are not available regarding compliance with and the consequences of this quality metric. We used the national Veterans Administration Corporate Data Warehouse and validated International Classification of Disease codes to evaluate the rate and subsequent outcomes of early, late, and no paracentesis for patients with cirrhosis and ascites during their first inpatient admission between 2016 and 2019. Of 10,237 patients admitted with a diagnosis of cirrhosis with ascites, 14.3% received an early paracentesis, 7.3% received a late paracentesis, and 78.4% never received a paracentesis. In multivariable modeling, compared with an early paracentesis: both late paracentesis and no-paracentesis were significantly associated with increased odds of acute kidney injury (AKI) development [OR: 2.16 (95% CI, 1.59-2.94) and 1.34 (1.09-1.66), respectively]; intensive care unit (ICU) transfer [OR: 2.43 (1.71-3.47) and 2.01 (1.53-2.69), respectively] and inpatient death [OR: 1.54 (1.03-2.29) and 1.42 (1.05-1.93), respectively]. Nationally, only 14.3% of admitted veterans with cirrhosis and ascites received the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) guideline-recommended diagnostic paracentesis within 24 hours of admission. Failure to complete early paracentesis was associated with higher odds of AKI, ICU transfer, and inpatient mortality. Universal and site-specific barriers to this quality metric should be evaluated and addressed to improve patient outcomes.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Clinical Guidelines.

In patients with cirrhosis and chronic liver disease, acute-on-chronic liver failure is emerging as a major cause of mortality. These guidelines indicate the preferred approach to the management of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure and represent the official practice recommendations of the American College of Gastroenterology. The scientific evidence for these guidelines was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation process. In instances where the evidence was not appropriate for Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation, but there was consensus of significant clinical merit, key concept statements were developed using expert consensus. These guidelines are meant to be broadly applicable and should be viewed as the preferred, but not only, approach to clinical scenarios.

Association of serum metabolites and gut microbiota at hospital admission with nosocomial infection development in patients with cirrhosis.

Cirrhosis is complicated by a high rate of nosocomial infections (NIs), which result in poor outcomes and are challenging to predict using clinical variables alone. Our aim was to determine predictors of NI using admission serum metabolomics and gut microbiota in inpatients with cirrhosis. In this multicenter inpatient cirrhosis study, serum was collected on admission for liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry metabolomics, and a subset provided stool for 16SrRNA analysis. Hospital course, including NI development and death, were analyzed. Metabolomic analysis using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) (demographics, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD] admission score, white blood count [WBC], rifaximin, and infection status adjusted) and random forest analyses for NI development were performed. Additional values of serum metabolites over clinical variables toward NI were evaluated using logistic regression. Stool microbiota and metabolomic correlations were compared in patients with and without NI development. A total of 602 patients (231 infection admissions) were included; 101 (17%) developed NIs, which resulted in worse inpatient outcomes, including intensive care unit transfer, organ failure, and death. A total of 127 patients also gave stool samples, and 20 of these patients developed NIs. The most common NIs were spontaneous bacterial peritonitis followed by urinary tract infection, Clostridioides difficile, and pneumonia. A total of 247 metabolites were significantly altered on ANCOVA. Higher MELD scores (odds ratio, 1.05; p < 0.0001), admission infection (odds ratio, 3.54; p < 0.0001), and admission WBC (odds ratio, 1.05; p = 0.04) predicted NI (area under the curve, 0.74), which increased to 0.77 (p = 0.05) with lower 1-linolenoyl-glycerolphosphocholine (GPC) and 1-stearoyl-GPC and higher N-acetyltryptophan and N-acetyl isoputreanine. Commensal microbiota were lower and pathobionts were higher in those who developed NIs. Microbial-metabolite correlation networks were complex and dense in patients with NIs, especially sub-networks centered on Ruminococcaceae and Pseudomonadaceae. NIs are common and associated with poor outcomes in cirrhosis. Admission gut microbiota in patients with NIs showed higher pathobionts and lower commensal microbiota. Microbial-metabolomic correlations were more complex, dense, and homogeneous among those who developed NIs, indicating greater linkage strength. Serum metabolites and gut microbiota on admission are associated with NI development in cirrhosis.

Admission Urinary and Serum Metabolites Predict Renal Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute kidney injury (AKI) has a poor prognosis in cirrhosis. Given the variability of creatinine, the prediction of AKI and dialysis by other markers is needed. The aim of this study is to determine the role of serum and urine metabolomics in the prediction of AKI and dialysis in an inpatient cirrhosis cohort. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Inpatients with cirrhosis from 11 North American Consortium of End-stage Liver Disease centers who provided admission serum/urine when they were AKI and dialysis-free were included. Analysis of covariance adjusted for demographics, infection, and cirrhosis severity was performed to identify metabolites that differed among patients (1) who developed AKI or not; (2) required dialysis or not; and/pr (3) within AKI subgroups who needed dialysis or not. We performed random forest and AUC analyses to identify specific metabolite(s) associated with outcomes. Logistic regression with clinical variables with/without metabolites was performed. A total of 602 patients gave serum (218 developed AKI, 80 needed dialysis) and 435 gave urine (164 developed AKI, 61 needed dialysis). For AKI prediction, clinical factor-adjusted AUC was 0.91 for serum and 0.88 for urine. Major metabolites such as uremic toxins (2,3-dihydroxy-5-methylthio-4-pentenoic acid [DMTPA], N2N2dimethylguanosine, uridine/pseudouridine) and tryptophan/tyrosine metabolites (kynunerate, 8-methoxykyunerate, quinolinate) were higher in patients who developed AKI. For dialysis prediction, clinical factor-adjusted AUC was 0.93 for serum and 0.91 for urine. Similar metabolites as AKI were altered here. For dialysis prediction in those with AKI, the AUC was 0.81 and 0.79 for serum/urine. Lower branched-chain amino-acid (BCAA) metabolites but higher cysteine, tryptophan, glutamate, and DMTPA were seen in patients with AKI needing dialysis. Serum/urine metabolites were additive to clinical variables for all outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Specific admission urinary and serum metabolites were significantly additive to clinical variables to predict AKI development and dialysis initiation in inpatients with cirrhosis. These observations can potentially facilitate earlier initiation of renoprotective measures.

Prognosis of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and acute kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of acute kidney disease (AKD), defined as a glomerular filtration rate of <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or a rise in serum creatinine (sCr) of <50% for <3 months, is not clearly known. AIM: To study the prevalence, predictive factors and clinical outcomes in hospitalized cirrhotic patients with AKD. METHODS: The North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease prospectively enrolled hospitalized decompensated cirrhotic patients. Patients were separated into those with normal renal function (controls or C), AKD or stage 1 AKI as their worst renal dysfunction per International Club of Ascites definition and compared. Parameters assessed included demographics, laboratory data, haemodynamics, renal and patient outcomes. RESULTS: 1244 patients with cirrhosis and ascites (C: 704 or 57%; AKD: 176 or 14%; stage 1 AKI: 364 or 29%) with similar demographics were enrolled. AKD patients had similar baseline sCr but higher hospital admission in the previous 6 months, and higher peak sCr, compared to controls, with their peak sCr being lower than that in stage 1 AKI patients (all P < .0001). The in-hospital and 30-day survival for AKD patients were intermediary between that for controls and stage 1 AKI patients (96% vs 91% vs 86%, P < .0001). The strongest predictors for AKD development while in hospital were the presence of a second infection (OR: 2.44) and diabetes (OR: 1.53). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with AKD had intermediate outcomes between stage 1 AKI and controls. AKD patients, especially those with diabetes and a second infection, need careful monitoring and prompt treatment for AKD to prevent negative outcomes.

Progression of Stage 2 and 3 Acute Kidney Injury in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis and Ascites.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Progression of stages 2 and 3 acute kidney injury (AKI) in cirrhosis has not been characterized adequately. Patients with higher stages of AKI are believed to have worse outcomes. We assessed outcomes and factors associated with stages 2 and 3 AKI in patients with cirrhosis in the North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease cohort. METHODS: We collected data from 2297 hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and ascites from December 2011 through February 2017. Our final analysis included 760 patients who developed AKI per the International Ascites Club 2015 definition (419 with maximum stage 1 and 341 with maximum stage 2 or 3; 63% male; mean age, 58 y). We compared demographic features, laboratory values, AKI treatment response, and survival between patients with maximum stage 1 vs patients with stage 2 or 3 AKI. RESULTS: Patients with stage 2 or 3 AKI had higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores (25.9 ± 7.3) than patients with stage 1 AKI (21.9 ± 7.5) (P < .0001). More patients fulfilled systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria on admission, and more developed a second nosocomial infection (P < .05 for both comparisons). More patients with stage 2 or 3 AKI also had progression of AKI and required dialysis and admission into intensive care units when compared to stage 1 AKI patients (P < .0001 for both). A lower proportion of patients with stage 2 or 3 AKI survived their hospital stay (80% vs 99% with stage 1 AKI; P < .0001), or survived for 30 days without a liver transplant (56% vs 81%; P < .0001). The development of stage 2 or 3 AKI was associated with a higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at the time of admission (P < .0001), presence of systemic inflammatory response on admission (P = .039), and second infection (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Based on an analysis of data from the North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease cohort, we found that patients with cirrhosis and more advanced liver disease, as well as a second infection, are more likely to develop stages 2 or 3 AKI, with a progressive course associated with decreased 30-day transplant-free survival. Prevention of AKI progression in patients with cirrhosis and stage 2 or 3 AKI might improve their outcomes.

Insurance Status But Not Race and Ethnicity Are Associated With Outcomes in a Large Hospitalized Cohort of Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Insurance, race, and ethnicity can affect outcomes of patients with cirrhosis, but findings from prospective studies are unclear. We investigated the role of insurance status and race and ethnicity (race/ethnicity) on inpatient and 90-day postdischarge outcomes in a large inpatient cohort of patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We used data from the North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease (NACSELD) database, from 13 tertiary care centers. Insurance status (uninsured, Medicare, Medicaid, private, and Canadian), race, and ethnicity, were analyzed independent of clinical covariates for their association with transfer to the intensive care unit, acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF), length of hospital stay, inpatient and 90-day death or liver transplantation, and readmission to the hospital within 90 days. Multi-variable analyses and interaction terms were created for insurance, race/ethnicity, and for each outcome, with or without Canadian patients. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 2640 patients in the NACSELD database (971 with private insurance, 770 with Medicare, 456 Canadians, 265 with Medicaid, 178 uninsured, 540 non-Caucasian and 220 Hispanic); 23% required admittance to the intensive care unit, 12% developed NACSELD-defined ACLF, 7% died, 5% underwent liver transplantation. Of the 2288 patients discharged from hospital, 13% underwent liver transplantation, 19% died, and 42% were readmitted within 90 days. In the univariate model, uninsured patients accounted for the highest percentage of alcohol- or bleeding-related admissions and the lowest proportion of outpatient cirrhosis-related medication users. Canadians had the lowest rifaximin use and but higher proportions had hepatic encephalopathy, compared with other groups. Lack of insurance was higher among non-Caucasians, regardless of Hispanic ethnicity. In multi-variable analysis, lack of insurance was associated with ACLF (P = .02) and inversely associated with inpatient liver transplant (P = .05) and 90-day liver transplant (P = .02), regardless of whether Canadians were included or specific insurance type. Race or ethnicity were not significantly associated with outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In analyzing the NACSELD database, we found that insurance status, but not race or ethnicity, were independently associated with ACLF and inpatient or 90-day liver transplantation, regardless of inclusion of Canadian patients.

Serum Levels of Metabolites Produced by Intestinal Microbes and Lipid Moieties Independently Associated With Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure and Death in Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inpatients with cirrhosis have high rates of acute-on-chronic failure (ACLF) development and high mortality within 30 days of admission to the hospital. Better biomarkers are needed to predict these outcomes. We performed metabolomic analyses of serum samples from patients with cirrhosis at multiple centers to determine whether metabolite profiles might identify patients at high risk for ACLF and death. METHODS: We performed metabolomic analyses, using liquid chromatography, of serum samples collected at time of admission to 12 North American tertiary hepatology centers from 602 patients in the North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease sites from 2015 through 2017 (mean age, 56 years; 61% men; mean model for end-stage liver disease score, 19.5). We performed analysis of covariance, adjusted for model for end-stage liver disease at time of hospital admission, serum levels of albumin and sodium, and white blood cell count, to identify metabolites that differed between patients who did vs did not develop ACLF and patients who did vs did not die during hospitalization and within 30 days. We performed random forest analysis to identify specific metabolite(s) that were associated with outcomes and area under the curve (AUC) analyses to analyze them in context of clinical parameters. We analyzed microbiomes of stool samples collected from 133 patients collected at the same time and examined associations with serum metabolites. RESULTS: Of the 602 patients analyzed, 88 developed ACLF (15%), 43 died in the hospital (7%), and 72 died within 30 days (12%). Increased levels of compounds of microbial origin (aromatic compounds, secondary or sulfated bile acids, and benzoate) and estrogen metabolites, as well as decreased levels of phospholipids, were associated with development of ACLF, inpatient, and 30-day mortality and were also associated with fecal microbiomes. Random forest analysis and logistic regression showed that levels of specific microbially produced metabolites identified patients who developed ACLF with an AUC of 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.88; P = .001), patients who died while in the hospital with an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.85; P = .002), and patients who died within 30 days with an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81; P = .02). The metabolites were significantly additive to clinical parameters for predicting these outcomes. Metabolites associated with outcomes were also correlated with microbiomes of stool samples. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of serum metabolites and fecal microbiomes of patients hospitalized with cirrhosis at multiple centers, we associated metabolites of microbial origin and lipid moieties with development of ACLF and death as an inpatient or within 30 days, after controlling for clinical features.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Lactate and Prediction of Inpatient Mortality in Patients With Chronic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Compared to other chronic diseases, patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) have significantly higher inpatient mortality; accurate models to predict inpatient mortality are lacking. Serum lactate (LA) may be elevated in patients with CLD due to both tissue hypoperfusion as well as decreased LA clearance. We hypothesized that a parsimonious model consisting of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and LA at admission may predict inpatient mortality in patients with CLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We examined all patients with CLD in two large and diverse health care systems in Texas (North Texas [NTX] and Central Texas [CTX]) between 2010 and 2015. We developed (n = 3,588) and validated (n = 1,804) a model containing MELD and LA measured at the time of hospitalization. We further validated the model in a second cohort of 14 tertiary care hepatology centers that prospectively enrolled nonelective hospitalized patients with cirrhosis (n = 726). MELD-LA was an excellent predictor of inpatient mortality in development (concordance statistic [C-statistic] = 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79-0.82) and both validation cohorts (CTX cohort, C-statistic = 0.85, 95% CI 0.78-0.87; multicenter cohort C-statistic = 0.82, 95% CI 0.74-0.88). MELD-LA performed especially well in patients with specific cirrhosis diagnoses (C-statistic = 0.84, 95% CI 0.81-0.86) or sepsis (C-statistic = 0.80, 95% CI 0.78-0.82). For MELD score 25, inpatient mortality rates were 11.2% (LA = 1 mmol/L), 19.4% (LA = 3 mmol/L), 34.3% (LA = 5 mmol/L), and >50% (LA > 8 mmol/L). A linear increase (P < 0.01) was seen in MELD-LA and increasing number of organ failures. Overall, use of MELD-LA improved the risk prediction in 23.5% of patients compared to MELD alone. CONCLUSIONS: MELD-LA (bswh.md/meldla) is an early and objective predictor of inpatient mortality and may serve as a model for risk assessment and guide therapeutic options.

Increased Risk of ACLF and Inpatient Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with Cirrhosis and Hepatic Hydrothorax.

BACKGROUND: Hepatic hydrothorax (HH) remains a difficult-to-treat complication of cirrhosis. AIM: To define the mortality, length of stay (LOS), and risk of ACLF in patients admitted with HH. METHODS: We utilized the North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease, a prospective cohort of 2868 non-electively hospitalized patients with cirrhosis from 14 tertiary care hepatology centers in North America. A total of 121 patients who required an inpatient thoracentesis (HH group) were compared to 736 patients with refractory ascites without HH, and to 1639 patients without these complications (Other). Patients with a TIPS before or during admission were excluded. RESULTS: There were no differences between the groups in age, gender, or liver disease etiology. Admission MELD (20.5, 21.6 vs. 18.7; p < 0.0001) was lower in HH than RA patients but lowest in other patients, respectively. In hospital, HH patients' rate of second infections and ICU transfer were the highest, and their LOS was the longest of all groups. Despite a similar mean discharge MELD compared to RA patients, the 90-day transplant rate was lower. Multivariable modeling showed patients with HH had an increased risk of ACLF (HR = 2.37 vs. RA, HR = 2.56 vs. Other; p = 0.01) even when controlling for MELD score, AKI, second infection, and history of prior 6-month hospitalization. Multivariable modeling also showed that HH increased the risk of inpatient mortality (HR = 2.22 vs. RA alone, HR = 2.31 vs. Other; p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: HH that required a therapeutic thoracentesis more than doubled the risk of ACLF and inpatient mortality among hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.

AGA Clinical Practice Update: Coagulation in Cirrhosis.

DESCRIPTION: This expert review was commissioned and approved by the AGA Institute Clinical Practice Updates Committee and the AGA Governing Board to provide timely guidance on a topic of high clinical importance to the AGA membership. The intent is to evaluate the current data on mechanism of altered coagulation in patients with cirrhosis, provide guidance on the use of currently available testing of the coagulation cascade, and help practitioners use anticoagulation and pro-coagulants appropriately in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: This review is framed around the best practice points, which were derived from the most impactful publications in the area of coagulation in cirrhosis and agreed to by all authors. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 1: Global tests of clot formation, such as rotational thromboelastometry, thromboelastography, sonorheometry, and thrombin generation, may eventually have a role in the evaluation of clotting in patients with cirrhosis, but currently lack validated target levels. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 2: In general, clinicians should not routinely correct thrombocytopenia and coagulopathy before low-risk therapeutic paracentesis, thoracentesis, and routine upper endoscopy for variceal ligation in patients with hepatic synthetic dysfunction-induced coagulation abnormalities. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 3: Blood products should be used sparingly because they increase portal pressure and carry a risk of transfusion-associated circulatory overload, transfusion-related acute lung injury, infection transmission, alloimmunization, and/or transfusion reactions. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 4: The following transfusion thresholds for management of active bleeding or high-risk procedures may optimize clot formation in advanced liver disease: hematocrit ≥25%, platelet count >50,000, and fibrinogen >120 mg/dL. Commonly utilized thresholds for international normalized ratio correction are not supported by evidence. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 5: Thrombopoietin agonists are a good alternative to platelet transfusion, but require time (about 10 days) to elevate platelet levels. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 6: The large volume of fresh frozen plasma required to reach an arbitrary international normalized ratio target, limitations of the usual target, minimal effect on thrombin generation, and adverse effects on portal pressure limit the utility of this agent significantly. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 7: The 4-factor prothrombin complex concentrate contains both pro- and anticoagulant factors that offer an attractive low-volume therapeutic to rebalance a disturbed hemostatic system. However, dosage is, in part, based on international normalized ratio, which is problematic in cirrhosis, and published experience in liver disease is limited. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 8: Anti-fibrinolytic therapy may be considered in patients with persistent bleeding from mucosal oozing or puncture wound bleeding consistent with impaired clot integrity. Both ε-aminocaproic acid and tranexamic acid inhibit clot dissolution. Neither is believed to generate a hypercoagulable state, although both may exacerbate pre-existing thrombi. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 9: Desmopressin releases von Willebrand factor as its primary hemostatic mechanism. As this factor is usually elevated in cirrhosis, the agent lacks a sound evidence-based foundation, but may be useful in patients with concomitant renal failure. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 10: Systemic heparin infusion is recommended for symptomatic deep vein thrombosis and portal and mesenteric vein thrombosis, but there are unresolved issues regarding monitoring with both the anti-Xa assay and the partial thromboplastin time due to cirrhosis-related antithrombin deficiency (heparin cofactor). BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 11: Treatment of incidental portal and mesenteric vein thrombosis depends on estimated impact on transplantation surgical complexity vs risks of bleeding and falls. Therapy with low-molecular-weight heparin, vitamin K antagonists, and direct-acting anticoagulants improve portal vein repermeation vs observation alone. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 12: Direct-acting anticoagulants, such as the factor Xa and thrombin inhibitors, are relatively safe and effective in stable cirrhotic patients, but are in need of further study in patients with more advanced liver disease.

Frailty Associated With Waitlist Mortality Independent of Ascites and Hepatic Encephalopathy in a Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Frailty is associated with mortality in patients with cirrhosis. We measured frailty using 3 simple tests and calculated Liver Frailty Index (LFI) scores for patients at multiple ambulatory centers. We investigated associations between LFI scores, ascites, and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and mortality. METHODS: Adults without hepatocellular carcinoma who were on the liver transplantation waitlist at 9 centers in the United States (N = 1044) were evaluated using the LFI; LFI scores of at least 4.5 indicated that patients were frail. We performed logistic regression analyses to assess associations between frailty and ascites or HE and competing risk regression analyses (with liver transplantation as the competing risk) to estimate sub-hazard ratios (sHRs) of waitlist mortality (death or removal from the waitlist). RESULTS: Of study subjects, 36% had ascites, 41% had HE, and 25% were frail. The odds of frailty were higher for patients with ascites (adjusted odd ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-2.14) or HE (odd ratio 2.45, 95% CI 1.80-3.33) than for those without these features. Larger proportions of frail patients with ascites (29%) or HE (30%) died while on the waitlist compared with patients who were not frail (17% of patients with ascites and 20% with HE). In univariable analysis, ascites (sHR 1.52, 95% CI 1.14-2.05), HE (sHR 1.84, 95% CI 1.38-2.45), and frailty (sHR 2.38, 95% CI 1.77-3.20) were associated with waitlist mortality. In adjusted models, only frailty remained significantly associated with waitlist mortality (sHR 1.82, 95% CI 1.31-2.52); ascites and HE were not. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is a prevalent complication of cirrhosis that is observed more frequently in patients with ascites or HE and independently associated with waitlist mortality. LFI scores can be used to objectively quantify risk of death related to frailty-in excess of liver disease severity-in patients with cirrhosis.