Seroconversion and seroprevalence of TORCH infections in a pregnant women cohort study, Mombasa, Kenya, 2017-2019.

Women infected during pregnancy with TORCH (Toxoplasmosis, Other, Rubella, Cytomegalovirus, and Herpes simplex viruses) pathogens have a higher risk of adverse birth outcomes including stillbirth / miscarriage because of mother-to-child transmission. To investigate these risks in pregnant women in Kenya, we analyzed serum specimens from a pregnancy cohort study at three healthcare facilities. A sample of 481 participants was selected for TORCH pathogen antibody testing to determine seroprevalence. A random selection of 285 from the 481 participants was selected to measure seroconversion. These sera were tested using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay against 10 TORCH pathogens. We found that the seroprevalence of all but three of the 10 TORCH pathogens at enrollment was >30%, except for Bordetella pertussis (3.8%), Treponema pallidum (11.4%), and varicella zoster virus (0.5%). Conversely, very few participants seroconverted during their pregnancy and were herpes simplex virus type 2 (n = 24, 11.2%), parvovirus B19 (n = 14, 6.2%), and rubella (n = 12, 5.1%). For birth outcomes, 88% of the participant had live births and 12% had stillbirths or miscarriage. Cytomegalovirus positivity at enrolment had a statistically significant positive association with a live birth outcome (p = 0.0394). Of the 10 TORCH pathogens tested, none had an association with adverse pregnancy outcome.

Risk factors of adverse birth outcomes among a cohort of pregnant women in Coastal Kenya, 2017-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Adverse birth outcomes particularly preterm births and congenital anomalies, are the leading causes of infant mortality globally, and the burden is highest in developing countries. We set out to determine the frequency of adverse birth outcomes and the risk factors associated with such outcomes in a cohort of pregnant women in Kenya. METHODS: From October 2017 to July 2019, pregnant women < 28 weeks gestation were enrolled and followed up until delivery in three hospitals in coastal Kenya. Newborns were examined at delivery. Among women with birth outcome data, we assessed the frequency of congenital anomalies defined as gastroschisis, umbilical hernia, limb abnormalities and Trisomy 21, and adverse birth outcomes, defined as either stillbirth, miscarriage, preterm birth, small for gestational age, or microcephaly. We used log-binomial regression to identify maternal characteristics associated with the presence of at least one adverse outcome. RESULTS: Among the 2312 women enrolled, 1916 (82.9%) had birth outcome data. Overall, 402/1916 (20.9%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 19.1-22.8) pregnancies had adverse birth outcomes. Specifically, 66/1916 (3.4%; 95% CI: 2.7-4.4) were stillbirths, 34/1916 (1.8%; 95% CI: 1.2-2.4) were miscarriages and 23/1816 (1.2%; 95% CI: 0.8-1.9) had congenital anomalies. Among the participants with anthropometric measurements data, 142/1200 (11.8%; 95% CI: 10.1 - 13.8) were small for gestational age and among the participants with ultrasound records, 143/1711 (8.4%; 95% CI: 7.1-9.8) were preterm. Febrile illnesses in current pregnancy (adjusted risk ratio (aRR): 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1-2.8), a history of poor birth outcomes in prior pregnancy (aRR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3-2.4) and high blood pressure in pregnancy (aRR: 3.9, 95% CI: (1.7-9.2) were independently associated with adverse birth outcomes in a model that included age, education, human immunodeficiency virus status and high blood pressure at enrolment. CONCLUSION: We found similar rates of overall adverse birth outcomes, congenital anomalies, and small for gestational age but higher rates of stillbirths and lower rates of prematurity compared to the rates that have been reported in the sub-Saharan Africa region. However, the rates of adverse birth outcomes in this study were comparable to other studies conducted in Kenya. Febrile illnesses during the current pregnancy, previous history of poor birth outcomes and high blood pressure in pregnancy are predictive of an increased risk of adverse birth outcomes.

Association between low maternal serum aflatoxin B1 exposure and adverse pregnancy outcomes in Mombasa, Kenya, 2017-2019: A nested matched case-control study.

We examined the association between serum aflatoxin B1-lysine adduct (AFB1-lys) levels in pregnant women and adverse pregnancy outcomes (low birthweight, miscarriage and stillbirth) through a nested matched case-control study of pregnant women enroled at ≤28 weeks' gestation in Mombasa, Kenya, from 2017 to 2019. Cases comprised women with an adverse birth outcome, defined as either delivery of a singleton infant weighing <2500 g, or a miscarriage, or a stillbirth, while controls were women who delivered a singleton live infant with a birthweight of ≥2500 g. Cases were matched to controls at a ratio of 1:2 based on maternal age at enrolment, gestational age at enrolment and study site. The primary exposure was serum AFB1-lys. The study included 125 cases and 250 controls. The median gestation age when serum samples were collected was 23.0 weeks (interquartile range [IQR]: 18.1-26.0) and 23.5 (IQR: 18.1-26.5) among cases and controls, respectively. Of the 375 tested sera, 145 (38.7%) had detectable serum AFB1-lys: 36.0% in cases and 40.0% in controls. AFB1-lys adduct levels were not associated with adverse birth outcomes on multivariable analysis. Mid-upper arm circumference was associated with a 6% lower odds of adverse birth outcome for every unit increase (p = 0.023). Two-fifths of pregnant women had detectable levels of aflatoxin midway through pregnancy. However, we did not detect an association with adverse pregnancy outcomes, likely because of low serum AFB1-lys levels and low power, restricting meaningful comparison. More research is needed to understand the public health risk of aflatoxin in pregnant women to unborn children.

Healthcare-seeking behavior for respiratory illnesses in Kenya: implications for burden of disease estimation.

BACKGROUND: Understanding healthcare-seeking patterns for respiratory illness can help improve estimation of disease burden and target public health interventions to control acute respiratory disease in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey to determine healthcare utilization patterns for acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe pneumonia in four diverse counties representing urban, peri-urban, rural mixed farmers, and rural pastoralist communities in Kenya using a two-stage (sub-locations then households) cluster sampling procedure. Healthcare seeking behavior for ARI episodes in the last 14 days, and severe pneumonia in the last 12 months was evaluated. Severe pneumonia was defined as reported cough and difficulty breathing for > 2 days and report of hospitalization or recommendation for hospitalization, or a danger sign (unable to breastfeed/drink, vomiting everything, convulsions, unconscious) for children < 5 years, or report of inability to perform routine chores. RESULTS: From August through September 2018, we interviewed 28,072 individuals from 5,407 households. Of those surveyed, 9.2% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.9-10.7) reported an episode of ARI, and 4.2% (95% CI 3.8-4.6) reported an episode of severe pneumonia. Of the reported ARI cases, 40.0% (95% CI 36.8-43.3) sought care at a health facility. Of the74.2% (95% CI 70.2-77.9) who reported severe pneumonia and visited a medical health facility, 28.9% (95% CI 25.6-32.6) were hospitalized and 7.0% (95% CI 5.4-9.1) were referred by a clinician to the hospital but not hospitalized. 21% (95% CI 18.2-23.6) of self-reported severe pneumonias were hospitalized. Children aged < 5 years and persons in households with a higher socio-economic status were more likely to seek care for respiratory illness at a health facility. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that hospital-based surveillance captures less than one quarter of severe pneumonia in the community. Multipliers from community household surveys can account for underutilization of healthcare resources and under-ascertainment of severe pneumonia at hospitals.

Comparable Pregnancy Outcomes for HIV-Uninfected and HIV-Infected Women on Antiretroviral Treatment in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) on pregnancy outcomes for women on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa remains unclear. METHODS: Pregnant women in Kenya were enrolled in the second trimester and followed up to delivery. We estimated effects of treated HIV with 3 pregnancy outcomes: loss, premature birth, and low birth weight and factors associated with HIV-positive status. RESULTS: Of 2113 participants, 311 (15%) were HIV infected and on ART. Ninety-one of 1762 (5%) experienced a pregnancy loss, 169/1725 (10%) a premature birth (<37 weeks), and 74/1317 (6%) had a low-birth-weight newborn (<2500 g). There was no evidence of associations between treated HIV infection and pregnancy loss (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], .65-2.16; P = .57), prematurity (aRR, 1.09; 95% CI, .70-1.70; P = .69), and low birth weight (aRR, 1.36; 95% CI, .77-2.40; P = .27). Factors associated with an HIV-positive status included older age, food insecurity, lower education level, higher parity, lower gestation at first antenatal clinic, anemia, and syphilis. Women who were overweight or underweight were less likely to be HIV infected compared to those with normal weight. CONCLUSIONS: Currently treated HIV was not significantly associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. HIV-infected women, however, had a higher prevalence of other factors associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Prevalence of microcephaly and Zika virus infection in a pregnancy cohort in Kenya, 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV), first discovered in Uganda in 1947, re-emerged globally in 2013 and was later associated with microcephaly and other birth defects. We determined the incidence of ZIKV infection and its association with adverse pregnancy and fetal outcomes in a pregnancy cohort in Kenya. METHODS: From October 2017 to July 2019, we recruited and followed up women aged ≥ 15 years and ≤ 28 weeks pregnant in three hospitals in coastal Mombasa. Monthly follow-up included risk factor questions and a blood sample collected for ZIKV serology. We collected anthropometric measures (including head circumference), cord blood, venous blood from newborns, and any evidence of birth defects. Microcephaly was defined as a head circumference (HC) < 2 standard deviations (SD) for sex and gestational age. Severe microcephaly was defined as HC < 3 SD for sex and age. We tested sera for anti-ZIKV IgM antibodies using capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and confirmed positives using the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT90) for ZIKV and for dengue (DENV) on the samples that were ZIKV neutralizing antibody positive. We collected blood and urine from participants reporting fever or rash for ZIKV testing. RESULTS: Of 2889 pregnant women screened for eligibility, 2312 (80%) were enrolled. Of 1916 recorded deliveries, 1816 (94.6%) were live births and 100 (5.2%) were either stillbirths or spontaneous abortions (< 22 weeks of gestation). Among 1236 newborns with complete anthropometric measures, 11 (0.9%) had microcephaly and 3 (0.2%) had severe microcephaly. A total of 166 (7.2%) participants were positive for anti-ZIKV IgM, 136 of whom became seropositive during follow-up. Among the 166 anti-ZIKV IgM positive, 3 and 18 participants were further seropositive for ZIKV and DENV neutralizing antibodies, respectively. Of these 3 and 18 pregnant women, one and 13 (72.2%) seroconverted with antibodies to ZIKV and DENV, respectively. All 308 samples (serum and urine samples collected during sick visits and samples that were anti-ZIKV IgM positive) tested by RT-PCR were negative for ZIKV. No adverse pregnancy or neonatal outcomes were reported among the three participants with confirmed ZIKV exposure. Among newborns from pregnant women with DENV exposure, four (22.2%) were small for gestational age and one (5.6%) had microcephaly. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of severe microcephaly among newborns in coastal Kenya was high relative to published estimates from facility-based studies in Europe and Latin America, but little evidence of ZIKV transmission. There is a need for improved surveillance for microcephaly and other congenital malformations in Kenya.

Spatial clustering of livestock Anthrax events associated with agro-ecological zones in Kenya, 1957-2017.

BACKGROUND: Developing disease risk maps for priority endemic and episodic diseases is becoming increasingly important for more effective disease management, particularly in resource limited countries. For endemic and easily diagnosed diseases such as anthrax, using historical data to identify hotspots and start to define ecological risk factors of its occurrence is a plausible approach. Using 666 livestock anthrax events reported in Kenya over 60 years (1957-2017), we determined the temporal and spatial patterns of the disease as a step towards identifying and characterizing anthrax hotspots in the region. METHODS: Data were initially aggregated by administrative unit and later analyzed by agro-ecological zones (AEZ) to reveal anthrax spatio-temporal trends and patterns. Variations in the occurrence of anthrax events were estimated by fitting Poisson generalized linear mixed-effects models to the data with AEZs and calendar months as fixed effects and sub-counties as random effects. RESULTS: The country reported approximately 10 anthrax events annually, with the number increasing to as many as 50 annually by the year 2005. Spatial classification of the events in eight counties that reported the highest numbers revealed spatial clustering in certain administrative sub-counties, with 12% of the sub-counties responsible for over 30% of anthrax events, whereas 36% did not report any anthrax disease over the 60-year period. When segregated by AEZs, there was significantly greater risk of anthrax disease occurring in agro-alpine, high, and medium potential AEZs when compared to the agriculturally low potential arid and semi-arid AEZs of the country (p < 0.05). Interestingly, cattle were > 10 times more likely to be infected by B. anthracis than sheep, goats, or camels. There was lower risk of anthrax events in August (P = 0.034) and December (P = 0.061), months that follow long and short rain periods, respectively. CONCLUSION: Taken together, these findings suggest existence of certain geographic, ecological, and demographic risk factors that promote B. anthracis persistence and trasmission in the disease hotspots.

Comparison of knowledge, attitude, and practices of animal and human brucellosis between nomadic pastoralists and non-pastoralists in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The seroprevalence of brucellosis among nomadic pastoralists and their livestock in arid lands is reported to be over10-fold higher than non-pastoralists farmers and their livestock in Kenya. Here, we compared the seroprevalence of nomadic pastoralists and mixed farming with their knowledge of the disease and high-risk practices associated with brucellosis infection. METHODS: Across-sectional study was conducted in two counties - Kiambu County where farmers primarily practice smallholder livestock production and crop farming, and Marsabit County where farmers practice nomadic pastoral livestock production. Stratified random sampling was applied, in which sublocations were initially selected based on predominant livestock production system, before selecting households using randomly generated geographical coordinates. In each household, up to three persons aged 5 years and above were randomly selected, consented, and tested for Brucella spp IgG antibodies. A structured questionnaire was administered to the household head and selected individuals on disease knowledge and risky practices among the pastoralists and mixed farmers compared. Multivariable mixed effects logistic regression model was used to assess independent practices associated with human Brucella spp. IgG seropositivity. RESULTS: While the majority (74%) of pastoralist households had little to no formal education when compared to mixed (8%), over 70% of all households (pastoralists and mixed farmers) had heard of brucellosis and mentioned its clinical presentation in humans. However, fewer than 30% of all participants (pastoralists and mixed farmers) knew how brucellosis is transmitted between animals and humans or how its transmission can be prevented. Despite their comparable knowledge, significantly more seropositive pastoralists compared to mixed farmers engaged in risky practices including consuming unboiled milk (79.5% vs 1.7%, p < 0.001) and raw blood (28.3% vs 0.4%, p < 0.001), assisting in animal birth (43.0% vs 9.3%, p < 0.001), and handling raw hides (30.6% vs 5.5%, p < 0.001). , CONCLUSION: Nomadic pastoralists are more likely to engage in risky practices that promote Brucella Infection, probably because of their occupation and culture, despite having significant knowledge of the disease.

Successes and challenges of the One Health approach in Kenya over the last decade.

More than 75% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic in origin and a transdisciplinary, multi-sectoral One Health approach is a key strategy for their effective prevention and control. In 2004, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention office in Kenya (CDC Kenya) established the Global Disease Detection Division of which one core component was to support, with other partners, the One Health approach to public health science. After catalytic events such as the global expansion of highly pathogenic H5N1 and the 2006 East African multi-country outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever, CDC Kenya supported key Kenya government institutions including the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries to establish a framework for multi-sectoral collaboration at national and county level and a coordination office referred to as the Zoonotic Disease Unit (ZDU). The ZDU has provided Kenya with an institutional framework to highlight the public health importance of endemic and epidemic zoonoses including RVF, rabies, brucellosis, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, anthrax and other emerging issues such as anti-microbial resistance through capacity building programs, surveillance, workforce development, research, coordinated investigation and outbreak response. This has led to improved outbreak response, and generated data (including discovery of new pathogens) that has informed disease control programs to reduce burden of and enhance preparedness for endemic and epidemic zoonotic diseases, thereby enhancing global health security. Since 2014, the Global Health Security Agenda implemented through CDC Kenya and other partners in the country has provided additional impetus to maintain this effort and Kenya's achievement now serves as a model for other countries in the region.Significant gaps remain in implementation of the One Health approach at subnational administrative levels; there are sustainability concerns, competing priorities and funding deficiencies.

Seroprevalence of influenza A virus in pigs and low risk of acute respiratory illness among pig workers in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Influenza A viruses pose a significant risk to human health because of their wide host range and ability to reassort into novel viruses that can cause serious disease and pandemics. Since transmission of these viruses between humans and pigs can be associated with occupational and environmental exposures, we investigated the association between occupational exposure to pigs, occurrence of acute respiratory illness (ARI), and influenza A virus infection. METHODS: The study was conducted in Kiambu County, the county with the highest level of intensive small-scale pig farming in Kenya. Up to 3 participants (> 2 years old) per household from pig-keeping and non-pig-keeping households were randomly recruited and followed up in 2013 (Sept-Dec) and 2014 (Apr-Aug). Oropharyngeal (OP) and nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs were collected from participants with ARI at the time of study visit. For the animal study, nasal and oropharyngeal swabs, and serum samples were collected from pigs and poultry present in enrolled households. The human and animal swab samples were tested for viral nucleic acid by RT-PCR and sera by ELISA for antibodies. A Poisson generalized linear mixed-effects model was developed to assess the association between pig exposure and occurrence of ARI. RESULTS: Of 1137 human participants enrolled, 625 (55%) completed follow-up visits including 172 (27.5%) pig workers and 453 (72.5%) non-pig workers. Of 130 human NP/OP swabs tested, four (3.1%) were positive for influenza A virus, one pig worker, and three among non-pig workers. Whereas none of the 4462 swabs collected from pig and poultry tested positive for influenza A virus by RT-PCR, 265 of 4273 (6.2%) of the sera tested positive for virus antibodies by ELISA, including 11.6% (230/1990) of the pigs and 1.5% (35/2,283) of poultry. The cumulative incidence of ARI was 16.9% among pig workers and 26.9% among the non-pig workers. The adjusted risk ratio for the association between being a pig worker and experiencing an episode of ARI was 0.56 (95% CI [0.33, 0.93]), after adjusting for potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate moderate seropositivity for influenza A virus among pigs, suggesting the circulation of swine influenza virus and a potential for interspecies transmission.

Zoonotic disease research in East Africa.

BACKGROUND: The East African region is endemic with multiple zoonotic diseases and is one of the hotspots for emerging infectious zoonotic diseases with reported multiple outbreaks of epidemic diseases such as Ebola, Marburg and Rift Valley Fever. Here we present a systematic assessment of published research on zoonotic diseases in the region and thesis research in Kenya to understand the regional research focus and trends in publications, and estimate proportion of theses research transitioning to peer-reviewed journal publications. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Google Scholar and African Journals Online databases for publications on 36 zoonotic diseases identified to have occurred in the East Africa countries of Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda, for the period between 1920 and 2017. We searched libraries and queried online repositories for masters and PhD theses on these diseases produced between 1970 and 2016 in five universities and two research institutions in Kenya. RESULTS: We identified 771 journal articles on 22, and 168 theses on 21 of the 36 zoonotic diseases investigated. Research on zoonotic diseases increased exponentially with the last 10 years of our study period contributing more than half of all publications 460 (60%) and theses 102 (61%) retrieved. Endemic diseases were the most studied accounting for 656 (85%) and 150 (89%) of the publication and theses studies respectively, with publications on epidemic diseases associated with outbreaks reported in the region or elsewhere. Epidemiological studies were the most common study types but limited to cross-sectional studies while socio-economics were the least studied. Only 11% of the theses research transitioned to peer-review publications, taking an average of 2.5 years from theses production to manuscript publication. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate increased attention to zoonotic diseases in East Africa but reveal the need to expand the scope, focus and quality of studies to adequately address the public health, social and economic threats posed by zoonoses.

Higher livestock abortion burden in arid and semi-arid lands, Kenya, 2019-2020.

Tracking livestock abortion patterns over time and across factors such as species and agroecological zones (AEZs) could inform policies to mitigate disease emergence, zoonoses risk, and reproductive losses. We conducted a year-long population-based active surveillance of livestock abortion between 2019 and 2020, in administrative areas covering 52% of Kenya's landmass and home to 50% of Kenya's livestock. Surveillance sites were randomly selected to represent all AEZs in the country. Local animal health practitioners electronically transmitted weekly abortion reports from each ward, the smallest administrative unit, to a central server, using a simple short messaging service (SMS). Data were analyzed descriptively by administrative unit, species, and AEZ to reveal spatiotemporal patterns and relationships with rainfall and temperature. Of 23,766 abortions reported in all livestock species, sheep and goats contributed 77%, with goats alone contributing 53%. Seventy-seven per cent (n = 18,280) of these abortions occurred in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) that primarily practice pastoralism production systems. While spatiotemporal clustering of cases was observed in May-July 2019 in the ASALs, there was a substantial seasonal fluctuation across AEZs. Kenya experiences high livestock abortion rates, most of which go unreported. We recommend further research to document the national true burden of abortions. In ASALs, studies linking pathogen, climate, and environmental surveillance are needed to assign livestock abortions to infectious or non-infectious aetiologies and conducting human acute febrile illnesses surveillance to detect any links with the abortions.

Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.

BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterising recent RVF disease events in East Africa. METHODS: Data on 100 disease events (2008-2022) from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modelled against possible geoecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980 and 2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. RESULTS: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and three livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR, 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geoecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1°C increase in temperature and a 1-unit increase in NDVI, one months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1, 1.2) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.01, 3.71), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed a significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12-0.3°C/decade, p<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (p<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics.

Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.

Background: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterizing recent RVF disease events in East Africa. Methods: Data on 100 disease events (2008 - 2022) from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modeled against possible geo-ecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change, and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980-2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. Results: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and 3 livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geo-ecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1oC increase in temperature and 1-unit increase in NDVI, 1-3 months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios (IRR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1,1.2) and 9.88 (95% CI 0.85, 119.52), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12 to 0.3oC/decade, P<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (P<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics. Key questions: What is already known on this topic?: Rift Valley fever is recognized for its association with heavy rainfall, flooding, and El Niño rains in the East African region. A growing body of recent studies has highlighted a shifting landscape of the disease, marked by an expanding geographic range and an increasing number of small RVF clusters.What this study adds: This study challenges previous beliefs about RVF, revealing that it predominantly occurs in small clusters rather than large outbreaks, and its association with El Niño is not as pronounced as previously thought. Over 65% of these clusters are concentrated in the highlands of Kenya and Uganda, with 35% occurring in previously unaffected regions, accompanied by an increase in temperature and total rainfall between 1980 and 2022, along with a rise in the annual number of rainy days. Notably, the observed rainfall increases are particularly significant during the short-rains season (October-December), aligning with a secondary peak in RVF incidence. In contrast, the lowlands of East Africa, where typical RVF epidemics occur, display smaller and more varied trends in annual rainfall.How this study might affect research, practice, or policy: The worldwide consequence of the expanding RVF cluster is the broader dispersion of the virus, leading to the establishment of new regions with virus endemicity. This escalation heightens the risk of more extensive extreme-weather-associated RVF epidemics in the future. Global public health institutions must persist in developing preparedness and response strategies for such scenarios. This involves the creation and approval of human RVF vaccines and therapeutics, coupled with a rapid distribution plan through regional banks.

A qualitative assessment of influenza vaccine uptake among children in Kenya.

Background: Influenza is a significant contributor to acute respiratory infections (ARI), and children < 5 years are at increased risk of severe influenza disease. In Kenya the influenza vaccine is not included in the Kenya Expanded Programme on Immunization (KEPI). To inform roll-out of a national influenza vaccination program, we implemented an influenza vaccine demonstration project in Nakuru and Mombasa counties in Kenya from 2019 to 2021 and set out to establish factors driving influenza vaccine acceptance and hesitancy among caregivers of children aged 6-23 months. Methods: Using semi-structured questionnaires, we conducted eight focus group discussions among community members and twelve key informant interviews among healthcare workers to elicit both lay and expert opinions. Thematic analysis of the interviews was conducted using the World Health Organization's "3 Cs" model of vaccine hesitancy to determine reasons for acceptance or hesitancy of the influenza vaccine. Results: The influenza vaccine was well received among community members and healthcare workers though concerns were raised. Vaccine hesitancy was fuelled by misconceptions about reasons for introducing the vaccine (confidence), perceptions that influenza was not a serious disease (complacency) and administrative fees required at some facilities (convenience). Despite the use of various advocacy, communication and social mobilisation strategies targeted at educating the community on the influenza disease and importance of vaccination, there remained a perception of inadequate reach of the sensitization among some community members. Contextual factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic affected uptake, and parents expressed concern over the growing number of vaccines recommended for children. Conclusion: Despite lingering concerns, caregivers had their children vaccinated indicating that vaccine hesitancy exists, even among those who accepted the vaccine for their children. Efforts targeted at increasing confidence in and reducing misconceptions towards vaccines through effective communication strategies, are likely to lead to increased vaccine uptake.

Human brucellosis in Baringo County, Kenya: Evaluating the diagnostic kits used and identifying infecting Brucella species.

Human brucellosis diagnosis has been a challenge in Brucella-endemic areas. In Kenya, diagnosis is usually carried out using Febrile Brucella Antigen agglutination test (FBAT) whose performance is not well documented. This paper reports on the sensitivity and specificity of the FBAT used for brucellosis diagnosis on blood samples/serum collected in three healthcare facilities in Baringo County, Kenya, and on Brucella species present in the study area. The FBAT test results at the hospitals were used to guide patient management. Patients who visited the hospital's laboratory with a clinician's request for brucellosis testing also filled a questionnaire to assess knowledge and attitudes associated with transmission of the disease in the study area. The remaining serum samples were tested again using FBAT and Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) within a month of blood collection at the University Nairobi Laboratory. The two rapid tests were then compared, with respect to brucellosis diagnostic sensitivity and specificity. To identify infecting Brucella species, a proportion 43% (71/166) of the blood clots were analyzed by multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using specific primers for B. abortus, B. melitensis, B. ovis and B. suis. Out of 166 serum samples tested, 26.5% (44/166) were positive using FBAT and 10.2% (17/166) positive using RBPT. The sensitivity and specificity of FBAT compared to RBPT was 76.47% and 71.19%, respectively while the positive and negative predictive values were 29.55% and 96.72%, respectively. The FBAT showed higher positivity then RBPT. The difference in sensitivity and specificity of FBAT and RBPTs was relatively low. The high FBAT positivity rate would be indication of misdiagnosis; this would lead to incorrect treatment. Brucella abortus was detected from 9.9% (7/71) of the blood clots tested; no other Brucella species were detected. Thus human brucellosis, in Baringo was mainly caused by B. abortus.

Mapping of cholera hotspots in Kenya using epidemiologic and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) indicators as part of Kenya's new 2022-2030 cholera elimination plan.

Cholera is an issue of major public health importance. It was first reported in Kenya in 1971, with the country experiencing outbreaks through the years, most recently in 2021. Factors associated with the outbreaks in Kenya include open defecation, population growth with inadequate expansion of safe drinking water and sanitation infrastructure, population movement from neighboring countries, crowded settings such as refugee camps coupled with massive displacement of persons, mass gathering events, and changes in rainfall patterns. The Ministry of Health, together with other ministries and partners, revised the national cholera control plan to a multisectoral cholera elimination plan that is aligned with the Global Roadmap for Ending Cholera. One of the key features in the revised plan is the identification of hotspots. The hotspot identification exercise followed guidance and tools provided by the Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC). Two epidemiological indicators were used to identify the sub-counties with the highest cholera burden: incidence per population and persistence. Additionally, two indicators were used to identify sub-counties with poor WASH coverage due to low proportions of households accessing improved water sources and improved sanitation facilities. The country reported over 25,000 cholera cases between 2015 and 2019. Of 290 sub-counties, 25 (8.6%) sub-counties were identified as a high epidemiological priority; 78 (26.9%) sub-counties were identified as high WASH priority; and 30 (10.3%) sub-counties were considered high priority based on a combination of epidemiological and WASH indicators. About 10% of the Kenyan population (4.89 million) is living in these 30-combination high-priority sub-counties. The novel method used to identify cholera hotspots in Kenya provides useful information to better target interventions in smaller geographical areas given resource constraints. Kenya plans to deploy oral cholera vaccines in addition to WASH interventions to the populations living in cholera hotspots as it targets cholera elimination by 2030.

Kenya's experience implementing event-based surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Event-based surveillance (EBS) can be implemented in most settings for the detection of potential health threats by recognition and immediate reporting of predefined signals. Such a system complements existing case-based and sentinel surveillance systems. With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the Kenya Ministry of Health (MOH) modified and expanded an EBS system in both community and health facility settings for the reporting of COVID-19-related signals. Using an electronic reporting tool, m-Dharura, MOH recorded 8790 signals reported, with 3002 (34.2%) verified as events, across both community and health facility sites from March 2020 to June 2021. A subsequent evaluation found that the EBS system was flexible enough to incorporate the addition of COVID-19-related signals during a pandemic and maintain high rates of reporting from participants. Inadequate resources for follow-up investigations to reported events, lack of supportive supervision for some community health volunteers and lack of data system interoperability were identified as challenges to be addressed as the EBS system in Kenya continues to expand to additional jurisdictions.

Prevalence and functional profile of SARS-CoV-2 T cells in asymptomatic Kenyan adults.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa has been characterized by a less severe disease profile than what has been observed elsewhere, but the profile of SARS-CoV-2-specific adaptive immunity in these mainly asymptomatic patients has not, to our knowledge, been analyzed.MethodsWe collected blood samples from residents of rural Kenya (n = 80), who had not experienced any respiratory symptoms or had contact with individuals with COVID-19 and had not received COVID-19 vaccines. We analyzed spike-specific antibodies and T cells specific for SARS-CoV-2 structural (membrane, nucleocapsid, and spike) and accessory (ORF3a, ORF7, ORF8) proteins. Pre-pandemic blood samples collected in Nairobi (n = 13) and blood samples from mild-to-moderately symptomatic COVID-19 convalescent patients (n = 36) living in the urban environment of Singapore were also studied.ResultsAmong asymptomatic Africans, we detected anti-spike antibodies in 41.0% of the samples and T cell responses against 2 or more SARS-CoV-2 proteins in 82.5% of samples examined. Such a pattern was absent in the pre-pandemic samples. Furthermore, distinct from cellular immunity in European and Asian COVID-19 convalescents, we observed strong T cell immunogenicity against viral accessory proteins (ORF3a, ORF8) but not structural proteins, as well as a higher IL-10/IFN-γ cytokine ratio profile.ConclusionsThe high incidence of T cell responses against different SARS-CoV-2 proteins in seronegative participants suggests that serosurveys underestimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in settings where asymptomatic infections prevail. The functional and antigen-specific profile of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in African individuals suggests that environmental factors can play a role in the development of protective antiviral immunity.FundingUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Global Health Protection; the Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council (COVID19RF3-0060, COVID19RF-001, COVID19RF-008, MOH-StaR17Nov-0001).

Resilience of routine childhood immunization services in two counties in Kenya in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The recently emerged coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide and disrupted health services. We describe the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on utilization of childhood vaccination services during the pandemic. Using a mixed methods approach combining retrospective data review, a cross-sectional survey, focus group discussions among care givers and key informant interviews among nurses, we collected data between May and September 2021 in Mombasa and Nakuru counties. Overall, there was a <2 % decline in the number of vaccine doses administered during the pandemic period compared to the pre-pandemic period but this was statistically insignificant, both for the pentavalent-1 vaccine (ß = -0.013, p = 0.505) and the pentavalent-3 vaccine (ß = -0.012, p = 0.440). In government health facilities, there was 7.7 % reduction in the number of pentavalent-1 (ß = -0.08, p = 0.010) and 10.4 % reduction in the number of pentavalent-3 (ß = -0.11, p < 0.001) vaccine doses that were administered during the pandemic period. In non-government facilities, there was a 25.8 % increase in the number of pentavalent-1 (ß=0.23, p < 0.001) and 31.0 % increase in the number of pentavalent-3 (ß = -0.27, p < 0.001) vaccine doses that were administered facilities during the pandemic period. The strategies implemented to maintain immunization services during the pandemic period included providing messaging on the availability and importance of staying current with routine vaccination and conducting catch-up vaccinations and vaccination outreaches. Our findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not impact childhood vaccination services in Mombasa and Nakuru counties in Kenya. The private health facilities cushioned vaccination services against the effects of the pandemic and the strategies that were put in place by the ministry of health ensured continuation of vaccination services and encouraged uptake of the services during the pandemic period in the two counties in Kenya. These findings provide useful information to safeguard vaccination services during future pandemics.