Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 109
Filtrar
Más filtros

Tipo del documento
Intervalo de año de publicación
1.
Pediatr Cardiol ; 45(1): 14-23, 2024 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37914854

RESUMEN

We previously selected and defined nine important post-operative morbidities linked to paediatric cardiac surgery, and prospectively measured their incidence following 3090 consecutive operations. Our aim was to study the impact of these morbidities on family functioning and parental quality of life over 6 months in a subset of cases. As part of a prospective case matched study in five of the ten children's cardiac centers in the UK, we compared outcomes for parents of children who had a 'single morbidity', 'multiple morbidities', 'extracorporeal life support (ECLS)' or 'no morbidity'. Outcomes were evaluated using the PedsQL Family impact module (FIM) at 6 weeks and 6 months post-surgery. Outcomes were modelled using mixed effects regression, with adjustment for case mix and clustering within centers. We recruited 340 patients with morbidity (60% of eligible patients) and 326 with no morbidity over 21 months. In comparison to the reference group of 'no morbidity', after adjustment for case mix, at 6 weeks parent health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and total FIM sores were lower (worse) only for ECLS (p < 0.005), although a higher proportion of parents in both the ECLS and multi-morbidity groups had low/very low scores (p < .05). At 6 months, parent outcomes had improved for all groups but parent HRQoL and total score for ECLS remained lower than the 'no morbidity' group (p < .05) and a higher proportion of families had low or very low scores in the ECLS (70%) group (p < .01). Post-operative morbidities impact parent HRQoL and aspects of family functioning early after surgery, with this impact lessening by 6 months. Families of children who experience post-operative morbidities should be offered timely psychological support.


Asunto(s)
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Calidad de Vida , Niño , Humanos , Calidad de Vida/psicología , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/efectos adversos , Morbilidad , Padres/psicología , Incidencia , Encuestas y Cuestionarios
2.
Nurs Crit Care ; 27(3): 367-374, 2022 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34028143

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: A third of children admitted to paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in the United Kingdom (UK) are transported by paediatric critical care transport services (PCCTs). Parents have described the transfer journey as particularly stressful. Critical care nurses have a key role in mitigating the impact of the journey on parents. Evaluating parents' experiences is important to inform service improvements. AIM AND OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to describe the development of a new measure of parents' experiences of PCCTs, derived from data collected in the Differences in access to Emergency Paediatric Intensive Care and care during Transport (DEPICT) study. DESIGN: A descriptive cross-sectional survey was used. METHODS: As part of the DEPICT study, a 17-item transport experience questionnaire was developed and given to parents of children transported by PCCTs to 24 UK PICUs during a 12-month period. Analyses included exploratory factor analysis and a validation review by a PCCT stakeholder group. RESULTS: Families of 1722 children (1798 journeys) completed questionnaires. Five items were excluded from further analysis as correlation coefficients were <0.3. Two factors explained 53% of the variance and all 12 items loaded on one of these factors. Factor 1 (8 items) explained 47% of the variance, had excellent internal reliability and the clustered items were conceptually coherent with a specific relevance to PCCTs; these were offered for consideration, with other items possibly discarded. Twenty-eight PCCT clinicians reviewed the questions. Using a 70% agreement threshold, one additional, previously discarded, item was identified for inclusion, resulting in a nine-item experience measure. CONCLUSION: Our brief measure of parents' experience of critical care transport provides a standardized measure that can be used across all PCCTs, enabling national benchmarking of services and potentially increasing the collection and use of parent experience data to improve services. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Being able to measure experience provides an opportunity to understand how to make services better to improve experience.


Asunto(s)
Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo Pediátrico , Padres , Niño , Cuidados Críticos , Estudios Transversales , Humanos , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Encuestas y Cuestionarios
3.
Lancet ; 395(10238): 1715-1725, 2020 05 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32405103

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The medical, societal, and economic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has unknown effects on overall population mortality. Previous models of population mortality are based on death over days among infected people, nearly all of whom thus far have underlying conditions. Models have not incorporated information on high-risk conditions or their longer-term baseline (pre-COVID-19) mortality. We estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios based on varying levels of transmission suppression and differing mortality impacts based on different relative risks for the disease. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records from England (Health Data Research UK-CALIBER). We report prevalence of underlying conditions defined by Public Health England guidelines (from March 16, 2020) in individuals aged 30 years or older registered with a practice between 1997 and 2017, using validated, openly available phenotypes for each condition. We estimated 1-year mortality in each condition, developing simple models (and a tool for calculation) of excess COVID-19-related deaths, assuming relative impact (as relative risks [RRs]) of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared with background mortality) of 1·5, 2·0, and 3·0 at differing infection rate scenarios, including full suppression (0·001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%), and do nothing (80%). We also developed an online, public, prototype risk calculator for excess death estimation. FINDINGS: We included 3 862 012 individuals (1 957 935 [50·7%] women and 1 904 077 [49·3%] men). We estimated that more than 20% of the study population are in the high-risk category, of whom 13·7% were older than 70 years and 6·3% were aged 70 years or younger with at least one underlying condition. 1-year mortality in the high-risk population was estimated to be 4·46% (95% CI 4·41-4·51). Age and underlying conditions combined to influence background risk, varying markedly across conditions. In a full suppression scenario in the UK population, we estimated that there would be two excess deaths (vs baseline deaths) with an RR of 1·5, four with an RR of 2·0, and seven with an RR of 3·0. In a mitigation scenario, we estimated 18 374 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 36 749 with an RR of 2·0, and 73 498 with an RR of 3·0. In a do nothing scenario, we estimated 146 996 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 293 991 with an RR of 2·0, and 587 982 with an RR of 3·0. INTERPRETATION: We provide policy makers, researchers, and the public a simple model and an online tool for understanding excess mortality over 1 year from the COVID-19 pandemic, based on age, sex, and underlying condition-specific estimates. These results signal the need for sustained stringent suppression measures as well as sustained efforts to target those at highest risk because of underlying conditions with a range of preventive interventions. Countries should assess the overall (direct and indirect) effects of the pandemic on excess mortality. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Health Data Research UK.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Mortalidad/tendencias , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , COVID-19 , Estudios de Cohortes , Infecciones por Coronavirus/complicaciones , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Estadísticos , Multimorbilidad , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/complicaciones , Factores de Riesgo , Reino Unido/epidemiología
4.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 213, 2021 08 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34461893

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The literature paints a complex picture of the association between mortality risk and ICU strain. In this study, we sought to determine if there is an association between mortality risk in intensive care units (ICU) and occupancy of beds compatible with mechanical ventilation, as a proxy for strain. METHODS: A national retrospective observational cohort study of 89 English hospital trusts (i.e. groups of hospitals functioning as single operational units). Seven thousand one hundred thirty-three adults admitted to an ICU in England between 2 April and 1 December, 2020 (inclusive), with presumed or confirmed COVID-19, for whom data was submitted to the national surveillance programme and met study inclusion criteria. A Bayesian hierarchical approach was used to model the association between hospital trust level (mechanical ventilation compatible), bed occupancy, and in-hospital all-cause mortality. Results were adjusted for unit characteristics (pre-pandemic size), individual patient-level demographic characteristics (age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation index, time-to-ICU admission), and recorded chronic comorbidities (obesity, diabetes, respiratory disease, liver disease, heart disease, hypertension, immunosuppression, neurological disease, renal disease). RESULTS: One hundred thirty-five thousand six hundred patient days were observed, with a mortality rate of 19.4 per 1000 patient days. Adjusting for patient-level factors, mortality was higher for admissions during periods of high occupancy (> 85% occupancy versus the baseline of 45 to 85%) [OR 1.23 (95% posterior credible interval (PCI): 1.08 to 1.39)]. In contrast, mortality was decreased for admissions during periods of low occupancy (< 45% relative to the baseline) [OR 0.83 (95% PCI 0.75 to 0.94)]. CONCLUSION: Increasing occupancy of beds compatible with mechanical ventilation, a proxy for operational strain, is associated with a higher mortality risk for individuals admitted to ICU. Further research is required to establish if this is a causal relationship or whether it reflects strain on other operational factors such as staff. If causal, the result highlights the importance of strategies to keep ICU occupancy low to mitigate the impact of this type of resource saturation.


Asunto(s)
Ocupación de Camas/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19/mortalidad , Causas de Muerte , Cuidados Críticos/estadística & datos numéricos , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Ventiladores Mecánicos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Teorema de Bayes , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto Joven
5.
BMC Pediatr ; 21(1): 217, 2021 05 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33941116

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Centralisation of paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) has the increased the need for specialist paediatric critical care transport teams (PCCT) to transport critically ill children to PICU. We investigated the impact of care provided by PCCTs for children on mortality and other clinically important outcomes. METHODS: We analysed linked national data from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) from children admitted to PICUs in England and Wales (2014-2016) to assess the impact of who led the child's transport, whether prolonged stabilisation by the PCCT was detrimental and the impact of critical incidents during transport on patient outcome. We used logistic regression models to estimate the adjusted odds and probability of mortality within 30 days of admission to PICU (primary outcome) and negative binomial models to investigate length of stay (LOS) and length of invasive ventilation (LOV). RESULTS: The study included 9112 children transported to PICU. The most common diagnosis was respiratory problems; junior doctors led the PCCT in just over half of all transports; and the 30-day mortality was 7.1%. Transports led by Advanced Nurse Practitioners and Junior Doctors had similar outcomes (adjusted mortality ANP: 0.035 versus Junior Doctor: 0.038). Prolonged stabilisation by the PCCT was possibly associated with increased mortality (0.059, 95% CI: 0.040 to 0.079 versus short stabilisation 0.044, 95% CI: 0.039 to 0.048). Critical incidents involving the child increased the adjusted odds of mortality within 30 days (odds ratio: 3.07). CONCLUSIONS: Variations in team composition between PCCTs appear to have little effect on patient outcomes. We believe differences in stabilisation approaches are due to residual confounding. Our finding that critical incidents were associated with worse outcomes indicates that safety during critical care transport is an important area for future quality improvement work.


Asunto(s)
Cuidados Críticos , Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo Pediátrico , Niño , Enfermedad Crítica , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Humanos , Lactante , Estudios Retrospectivos , Gales/epidemiología
6.
BMC Pediatr ; 20(1): 301, 2020 06 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32560633

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Reaching the bedside of a critically ill child within three hours of agreeing the child requires intensive care is a key target for Paediatric Critical Care Transport teams (PCCTs) to achieve in the United Kingdom. Whilst timely access to specialist care is necessary for these children, it is unknown to what extent time taken for the PCCT to arrive at the bedside affects clinical outcome. METHODS: Data from transports of critically ill children who were admitted to Paediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs) in England and Wales from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 were extracted from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) and linked with adult critical care data and Office for National Statistics mortality data. Logistic regression models, adjusted for pre-specified confounders, were fitted to investigate the impact of time-to-bedside on mortality within 30 days of admission and other key time points. Negative binomial models were used to investigate the impact of time-to-bedside on PICU length of stay and duration of invasive ventilation. RESULTS: There were 9116 children transported during the study period, and 645 (7.1%) died within 30 days of PICU admission. There was no evidence that 30-day mortality changed as time-to-bedside increased. A similar relationship was seen for mortality at other pre-selected time points. In children who waited longer for a team to arrive, there was limited evidence of a small increase in PICU length of stay (expected number of days increased from: 7.17 to 7.58). CONCLUSION: There is no evidence that reducing the time-to-bedside target for PCCTs will improve the survival of critically ill children. A shorter time to bedside may be associated with a small reduction in PICU length of stay.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedad Crítica , Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo Pediátrico , Niño , Cuidados Críticos , Enfermedad Crítica/terapia , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Humanos , Lactante , Estudios Retrospectivos , Reino Unido , Gales
7.
Cardiol Young ; 30(1): 28-33, 2020 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31845642

RESUMEN

Short-term survival after paediatric cardiac surgery has improved significantly over the past 20 years and increasing attention is being given to measuring and reducing incidence of morbidities following surgery. How to best use routinely collected data to share morbidity information constitutes a challenge for clinical teams interested in analysing their outcomes for quality improvement. We aimed to develop a tool facilitating this process in the context of monitoring morbidities following paediatric cardiac surgery, as part of a prospective multi-centre research study in the United Kingdom.We developed a prototype software tool to analyse and present data about morbidities associated with cardiac surgery in children. We used an iterative process, involving engagement with potential users, tool design and implementation, and feedback collection. Graphical data displays were based on the use of icons and graphs designed in collaboration with clinicians.Our tool enables automatic creation of graphical summaries, displayed as a Microsoft PowerPoint presentation, from a spreadsheet containing patient-level data about specified cardiac surgery morbidities. Data summaries include numbers/percentages of cases with morbidities reported, co-occurrences of different morbidities, and time series of each complication over a time window.Our work was characterised by a very high level of interaction with potential users of the tool, enabling us to promptly account for feedback and suggestions from clinicians and data managers. The United Kingdom centres involved in the project received the tool positively, and several expressed their interest in using it as part of their routine practice.


Asunto(s)
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/efectos adversos , Evaluación de Procesos y Resultados en Atención de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Indicadores de Calidad de la Atención de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Preescolar , Conducta Cooperativa , Humanos , Comunicación Interdisciplinaria , Morbilidad , Grupo de Atención al Paciente , Estudios Prospectivos , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Diseño de Software , Análisis de Supervivencia , Reino Unido
9.
Cardiol Young ; 28(4): 571-581, 2018 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29513205

RESUMEN

Introduction The objective of this study was to prospectively validate the "Brief Developmental Assessment", which is a new early recognition tool for neurodevelopmental abnormalities in children with heart disease that was developed for use by cardiac teams. METHODS: This was a prospective validation study among a representative sample of 960 pre-school children with heart disease from three United Kingdom tertiary cardiac centres who were analysed grouped into five separate age bands. RESULTS: The "Brief Developmental Assessment" was successfully validated in the older four age bands, but not in the youngest representing infants under the age of 4 months, as pre-set validation thresholds were met - lower 95% confidence limit for the correlation coefficient above 0.75 - in terms of agreement of scores between two raters and with an external measure the "Mullen Scales of Early Learning". On the basis of American Association of Pediatrics Guidelines, which state that the sensitivity and specificity of a developmental screening tool should fall between 70 and 80%, "Brief Developmental Assessment" outcome of Red meets this threshold for detection of Mullen scores >2 standard deviations below the mean. CONCLUSION: The "Brief Developmental Assessment" may be used to improve the quality of assessment of children with heart disease. This will require a training package for users and a guide to action for abnormal results. Further research is needed to determine how best to deploy the "Brief Developmental Assessment" at different time points in children with heart disease and to determine the management strategy in infants younger than 4 months old.


Asunto(s)
Discapacidades del Desarrollo/epidemiología , Cardiopatías/complicaciones , Medición de Riesgo , Preescolar , Discapacidades del Desarrollo/etiología , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Cardiopatías/epidemiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Masculino , Estudios Prospectivos , Reino Unido/epidemiología
12.
Pediatr Crit Care Med ; 18(3): e131-e136, 2017 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28121834

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To derive a relationship between the SpO2/FIO2 ratio and PaO2/FIO2 ratio across the entire range of SpO2 values (0-100%) and to evaluate whether mortality prediction using the Pediatric Index of Mortality-3 can be improved by the use of PaO2/FIO2 values derived from SpO2/FIO2. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. SETTING: A regional PICU transport service. PATIENTS: Children transported to a PICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The relationship between SpO2/FIO2 and PaO2/FIO2 across the entire range of SpO2 values was first studied using several mathematical models in a derivation cohort (n = 1,235) and then validated in a separate cohort (n = 306). The best SpO2/FIO2-PaO2/FIO2 relationship was chosen according to the ability to detect respiratory failure (PaO2/FIO2 ≤ 200). The discrimination of the original Pediatric Index of Mortality-3 score and a derived Pediatric Index of Mortality-3 score (where SpO2/FIO2-derived PaO2/FIO2 values were used in place of missing PaO2/FIO2 values) were compared in a different cohort (n = 1,205). The best SpO2/FIO2-PaO2/FIO2 relationship in 1,703 SpO2/FIO2-to-PaO2/FIO2 data pairs was a linear regression equation of ln[PF] regressed on ln[SF]. This equation identified children with a PaO2/FIO2 less than or equal to 200 with a specificity of 73% and sensitivity of 61% in children with SpO2 less than 97% (92% and 33%, respectively, when SpO2 ≥ 97%) in the validation cohort. PaO2/FIO2 derived from SpO2/FIO2 (derived PaO2/FIO2) was better at predicting PICU mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.55-0.73) compared with the original PaO2/FIO2 (area under receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.49-0.59; p = 0.02). However, there was no difference in the original and derived Pediatric Index of Mortality-3 scores and their discriminatory ability for mortality. CONCLUSIONS: SpO2-based metrics perform no worse than arterial blood gas-based metrics in mortality prediction models. Future Pediatric Index of Mortality score versions may be improved by the inclusion of risk factors based on oxygen saturation values, especially in settings where PaO2 values are missing in a significant proportion of cases.


Asunto(s)
Cuidados Críticos/métodos , Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Oximetría/métodos , Insuficiencia Respiratoria/diagnóstico , Insuficiencia Respiratoria/mortalidad , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Adolescente , Niño , Preescolar , Enfermedad Crítica , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo Pediátrico , Modelos Lineales , Masculino , Insuficiencia Respiratoria/sangre , Estudios Retrospectivos , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Transporte de Pacientes
13.
Cardiol Young ; 27(4): 747-756, 2017 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27680207

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Morbidity is defined as a state of being unhealthy or of experiencing an aspect of health that is "generally bad for you", and postoperative morbidity linked to paediatric cardiac surgery encompasses a range of conditions that may impact the patient and are potential targets for quality assurance. METHODS: As part of a wider study, a multi-disciplinary group of professionals aimed to define a list of morbidities linked to paediatric cardiac surgery that was prioritised by a panel reflecting the views of both professionals from a range of disciplines and settings as well as parents and patients. RESULTS: We present a set of definitions of morbidity for use in routine audit after paediatric cardiac surgery. These morbidities are ranked in priority order as acute neurological event, unplanned re-operation, feeding problems, the need for renal support, major adverse cardiac events or never events, extracorporeal life support, necrotising enterocolitis, surgical site of blood stream infection, and prolonged pleural effusion or chylothorax. It is recognised that more than one such morbidity may arise in the same patient and these are referred to as multiple morbidities, except in the case of extracorporeal life support, which is a stand-alone constellation of morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to define a range of paediatric cardiac surgical morbidities for use in routine audit that reflects the priorities of both professionals and parents. The impact of these morbidities on the patient and family will be explored prospectively as part of a wider ongoing, multi-centre study.


Asunto(s)
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/efectos adversos , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/mortalidad , Cardiopatías Congénitas/cirugía , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/epidemiología , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/fisiopatología , Niño , Consenso , Humanos , Morbilidad , Pediatría , Garantía de la Calidad de Atención de Salud , Sociedades Médicas , Reino Unido
16.
BMC Infect Dis ; 15: 585, 2015 Dec 29.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26714777

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The availability of new vaccines can prompt policy makers to consider changes to the routine childhood immunisation programme in the UK. Alterations to one aspect of the schedule may have implications for other areas of the programme (e.g. adding more injections could reduce uptake of vaccines featuring later in the schedule). Colleagues at the Department of Health (DH) in the UK therefore wanted to know whether assessing the impact across the entire programme of a proposed change to the UK schedule could lead to different decisions than those made on the current case-by-case basis. This work is a first step towards addressing this question. METHODS: A novel framework for estimating the effective coverage against all of the diseases within a vaccination programme was developed. The framework was applied to the current (August 2015) UK childhood immunisation programme, plausible extensions to it in the foreseeable future (introducing vaccination against Meningitis B and/or Hepatitis B) and a "what-if" scenario regarding a Hepatitis B vaccine scare that was developed in close collaboration with DH. RESULTS: Our applications of the framework demonstrate that a programme-view of hypothetical changes to the schedule is important. For example, we show how introducing Hepatitis B vaccination could negatively impact aspects of the current programme by reducing uptake of vaccines featuring later in the schedule, and illustrate that the potential benefits of introducing any new vaccine are susceptible to behaviour changes affecting uptake (e.g. a vaccine scare). We show how it may be useful to consider the potential benefits and scheduling needs of all vaccinations on the horizon of interest rather than those of an individual vaccine in isolation, e.g. how introducing Meningitis B vaccination could saturate the early (2-month) visit, thereby potentially restricting scheduling options for Hepatitis B immunisation should it be introduced to the programme in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of considering the programme-wide impact of changes to an immunisation schedule, and our framework is an important step in the development of a means for systematically doing so.


Asunto(s)
Programas de Inmunización , Esquemas de Inmunización , Niño , Preescolar , Vacunas contra Hepatitis B , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización/organización & administración , Inmunización Secundaria , Vacuna contra la Tos Ferina , Toxoide Tetánico , Reino Unido , Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricos
17.
Pediatr Crit Care Med ; 16(9): 821-7, 2015 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26536545

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: Implementation of winter surge management in intensive care is hampered by the annual variability in the start and duration of the winter surge. We aimed to develop a real-time monitoring system that could identify the start promptly and accurately predict the end of the winter surge in a pediatric intensive care setting. DESIGN: We adapted a method from the stock market called "Bollinger bands" to compare current levels of demand for pediatric intensive care services to thresholds based on medium-term average demand. Algorithms to identify the start and end of the surge were developed using Bollinger bands and pragmatic considerations. The method was applied to a specific pediatric intensive care service: the North Thames Children's Acute Transport Service using eight winters of data (2005-2012) to tune the algorithms and one winter to test the final method (2013/2014). SETTING: A regional specialized pediatric retrieval service based in London, United Kingdom. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The optimal Bollinger band thresholds were 1.2 and 1 SDs above and below a 41-day moving average of demand, respectively. A simple linear model was found to predict the end of the surge and overall surge demand volume as soon as the start had been identified. Applying the method to the validation winter of 2013/2014 showed excellent performance, with the surge identified from November 18, 2013, to January 4, 2014. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and tested a novel method to identify the start and predict the end of the winter surge in emergency demand for pediatric intensive care.


Asunto(s)
Algoritmos , Predicción/métodos , Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo Pediátrico/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidado Intensivo Pediátrico/organización & administración , Modelos Lineales , Londres , Estaciones del Año , Capacidad de Reacción , Transporte de Pacientes/estadística & datos numéricos
18.
Lancet ; 381(9879): 1736-46, 2013 May 18.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23683640

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Maternal and neonatal mortality rates remain high in many low-income and middle-income countries. Different approaches for the improvement of birth outcomes have been used in community-based interventions, with heterogeneous effects on survival. We assessed the effects of women's groups practising participatory learning and action, compared with usual care, on birth outcomes in low-resource settings. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials undertaken in Bangladesh, India, Malawi, and Nepal in which the effects of women's groups practising participatory learning and action were assessed to identify population-level predictors of effect on maternal mortality, neonatal mortality, and stillbirths. We also reviewed the cost-effectiveness of the women's group intervention and estimated its potential effect at scale in Countdown countries. FINDINGS: Seven trials (119,428 births) met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses of all trials showed that exposure to women's groups was associated with a 37% reduction in maternal mortality (odds ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.32-0.94), a 23% reduction in neonatal mortality (0.77, 0.65-0.90), and a 9% non-significant reduction in stillbirths (0.91, 0.79-1.03), with high heterogeneity for maternal (I(2)=58.8%, p=0.024) and neonatal results (I(2)=64.7%, p=0.009). In the meta-regression analyses, the proportion of pregnant women in groups was linearly associated with reduction in both maternal and neonatal mortality (p=0.026 and p=0.011, respectively). A subgroup analysis of the four studies in which at least 30% of pregnant women participated in groups showed a 55% reduction in maternal mortality (0.45, 0.17-0.73) and a 33% reduction in neonatal mortality (0.67, 0.59-0.74). The intervention was cost effective by WHO standards and could save an estimated 283,000 newborn infants and 41,100 mothers per year if implemented in rural areas of 74 Countdown countries. INTERPRETATION: With the participation of at least a third of pregnant women and adequate population coverage, women's groups practising participatory learning and action are a cost-effective strategy to improve maternal and neonatal survival in low-resource settings. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Ammalife, and National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care for Birmingham and the Black Country programme.


Asunto(s)
Participación de la Comunidad , Mortalidad Infantil , Mortalidad Materna , Mortinato/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Investigación Participativa Basada en la Comunidad , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Países en Desarrollo , Femenino , Conductas Relacionadas con la Salud , Humanos , Lactante , Análisis de Intención de Tratar , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Adulto Joven
19.
Br Med Bull ; 111(1): 5-15, 2014 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25075130

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Mortality has traditionally been perceived as a straightforward measure of outcome and has been used to evaluate surgical performance. In the rapidly developing arena of paediatric cardiac surgery, the insightful analysis of mortality figures is challenging. SOURCES OF DATA: This report discusses the issues involved when mortality is used as a marker for surgical outcome, referring to national and international audit and research data. AREAS OF AGREEMENT: Mortality is an important variable and should be transparently defined, reported and monitored. AREAS OF CONTROVERSY: Definitions of mortality, assessments of risk and interpretations of reported statistics all have limitations that must be recognized. GROWING POINTS: Traditional use of raw early mortality as a simplistic indicator of outcome and performance is evolving to include risk-adjusted mortality, longer-term survival, reinterventions and complications. AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH: As the vast majority of children undergoing cardiac surgery now survive beyond 30 days, the focus for measures of quality is shifting towards morbidity.


Asunto(s)
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/mortalidad , Cardiopatías Congénitas/cirugía , Calidad de la Atención de Salud , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/normas , Cardiopatías Congénitas/mortalidad , Humanos , Lactante , Ajuste de Riesgo/métodos , Reino Unido/epidemiología
20.
BMC Pregnancy Childbirth ; 14: 99, 2014 Mar 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24606612

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Provision of essential newborn care (ENC) can save many newborn lives in poor resource settings but coverage is far from universal and varies by country and place of delivery. Understanding gaps in current coverage and where coverage is good, in different contexts and places of delivery, could make a valuable contribution to the future design of interventions to reduce neonatal mortality. We sought to describe the coverage of essential newborn care practices for births in institutions, at home with a skilled birth attendant, and at home without a skilled birth attendant (SBA) in rural areas of Bangladesh, Nepal, and India. METHODS: We used data from the control arms of four cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh, Eastern India and from Makwanpur and Dhanusha districts in Nepal, covering periods from 2001 to 2011. We used these data to identify essential newborn care practices as defined by the World Health Organization. Each birth was allocated to one of three delivery types: home birth without an SBA, home birth with an SBA, or institutional delivery. For each study, we calculated the observed proportion of births that received each care practice by delivery type with 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for clustering and, where appropriate, stratification. RESULTS: After exclusions, we analysed data for 8939 births from Eastern India, 27 553 births from Bangladesh, 6765 births from Makwanpur and 15 344 births from Dhanusha. Across all study areas, coverage of essential newborn care practices was highest in institutional deliveries, and lowest in home non-SBA deliveries. However, institutional deliveries did not provide universal coverage of the recommended practices, with relatively low coverage (20%-70%) across all study areas for immediate breastfeeding and thermal care. Institutions in Bangladesh had the highest coverage for almost all care practices except thermal care. Across all areas, fewer than 20% of home non-SBA deliveries used a clean delivery kit, the use of plastic gloves was very low and coverage of recommended thermal care was relatively poor. There were large differences between study areas in handwashing, immediate breastfeeding and delayed bathing. CONCLUSIONS: There remains substantial scope for health facilities to improve thermal care for the newborn and to encourage immediate and exclusive breastfeeding. For unattended home deliveries, increased handwashing, use of clean delivery kits and basic thermal care offer great scope for improvement.


Asunto(s)
Parto Obstétrico/métodos , Países en Desarrollo , Parto Domiciliario , Atención Prenatal/organización & administración , Población Rural , Bangladesh/epidemiología , Análisis por Conglomerados , Femenino , Humanos , India/epidemiología , Mortalidad Infantil/tendencias , Recién Nacido , Partería/organización & administración , Nepal/epidemiología , Embarazo , Estudios Prospectivos
SELECCIÓN DE REFERENCIAS
DETALLE DE LA BÚSQUEDA