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BACKGROUND: Previous work in European ancestry populations has shown that adding a polygenic risk score (PRS) to breast cancer risk prediction models based on epidemiologic factors results in better discriminatory performance as measured by the AUC (area under the curve). Following publication of the first PRS to perform well in women of African ancestry (AA-PRS), we conducted an external validation of the AA-PRS and then evaluated the addition of the AA-PRS to a risk calculator for incident breast cancer in Black women based on epidemiologic factors (BWHS model). METHODS: Data from the Black Women's Health Study, an ongoing prospective cohort study of 59,000 US Black women followed by biennial questionnaire since 1995, were used to calculate AUCs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for discriminatory accuracy of the BWHS model, the AA-PRS alone, and a new model that combined them. Analyses were based on data from 922 women with invasive breast cancer and 1844 age-matched controls. RESULTS: AUCs were 0.577 (95% CI 0.556-0.598) for the BWHS model and 0.584 (95% CI 0.563-0.605) for the AA-PRS. For a model that combined estimates from the questionnaire-based BWHS model with the PRS, the AUC increased to 0.623 (95% CI 0.603-0.644). CONCLUSIONS: This combined model represents a step forward for personalized breast cancer preventive care for US Black women, as its performance metrics are similar to those from models in other populations. Use of this new model may mitigate exacerbation of breast cancer disparities if and when it becomes feasible to include a PRS in routine health care decision-making.
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Neoplasias de la Mama , Puntuación de Riesgo Genético , Femenino , Humanos , Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico , Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/genética , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido Simple , Estudios Prospectivos , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Negro o AfroamericanoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Benign breast disease (BBD) and high mammographic breast density (MBD) are prevalent and independent risk factors for invasive breast cancer. It has been suggested that temporal changes in MBD may impact future invasive breast cancer risk, but this has not been studied among women with BBD. METHODS: We undertook a nested case-control study within a cohort of 15,395 women with BBD in Kaiser Permanente Northwest (KPNW; 1970-2012, followed through mid-2015). Cases (n = 261) developed invasive breast cancer > 1 year after BBD diagnosis, whereas controls (n = 249) did not have breast cancer by the case diagnosis date. Cases and controls were individually matched on BBD diagnosis age and plan membership duration. Standardized %MBD change (per 2 years), categorized as stable/any increase (≥ 0%), minimal decrease of less than 5% or a decrease greater than or equal to 5%, was determined from baseline and follow-up mammograms. Associations between MBD change and breast cancer risk were examined using adjusted unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 64.5% (n = 329) of BBD patients had non-proliferative and 35.5% (n = 181) had proliferative disease with/without atypia. Women with an MBD decrease (≤ - 5%) were less likely to develop breast cancer (Odds Ratio (OR) 0.64; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.38, 1.07) compared with women with minimal decreases. Associations were stronger among women ≥ 50 years at BBD diagnosis (OR 0.48; 95% CI 0.25, 0.92) and with proliferative BBD (OR 0.32; 95% CI 0.11, 0.99). DISCUSSION: Assessment of temporal MBD changes may inform risk monitoring among women with BBD, and strategies to actively reduce MBD may help decrease future breast cancer risk.
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Enfermedades de la Mama , Neoplasias de la Mama , Femenino , Humanos , Neoplasias de la Mama/etiología , Densidad de la Mama , Enfermedades de la Mama/complicaciones , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
Thyroid cancer more commonly affects women than men and is the third most frequently diagnosed cancer among women of reproductive age. We conducted a nested case-control study within the Finnish Maternity Cohort to evaluate pre-diagnostic sex steroid and thyroid function markers in relation to subsequent maternal papillary thyroid cancer. Cases (n = 605) were women ages 18-44 years, who provided an early-pregnancy (<20 weeks gestation) blood sample and were diagnosed with papillary thyroid cancer up to 11 years afterward. Controls (n = 1185) were matched to cases 2:1 by gestational age, mother's age, and date at blood draw. Odds ratios (ORs) for the associations of serum thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO-Ab), thyroglobulin antibodies (Tg-Ab), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (fT4), free triiodothyronine (fT3), progesterone, and estradiol with papillary thyroid cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression. TPO-Ab and Tg-Ab positivity (>95th percentile among controls) were associated with more than 3-fold (OR = 3.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.33-4.72) and 2-fold (OR = 2.03, 95% CI 1.41-2.93) increased odds of papillary thyroid cancer, respectively. These associations were similar by time since blood draw, parity, gestational age, smoking status, and age and stage at diagnosis. In models excluding TPO-Ab or Tg-Ab positivity, TPO-Ab (quartile 4 vs. 1: OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.17-2.37, p-trend = .002) and Tg-Ab (quartile 4 vs. 1: OR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.22-2.49, p-trend = .01) levels were positively associated with papillary thyroid cancer. No associations were observed for estradiol, progesterone, TSH, fT3, or fT4 overall. Our results suggest that thyroid autoimmunity in early pregnancy may increase the risk of maternal papillary thyroid cancer.
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Autoanticuerpos , Cáncer Papilar Tiroideo , Neoplasias de la Tiroides , Humanos , Femenino , Embarazo , Finlandia/epidemiología , Adulto , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Neoplasias de la Tiroides/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Tiroides/sangre , Cáncer Papilar Tiroideo/sangre , Cáncer Papilar Tiroideo/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto Joven , Incidencia , Autoanticuerpos/sangre , Autoinmunidad , Carcinoma Papilar/sangre , Carcinoma Papilar/epidemiología , Hormonas Tiroideas/sangre , Hormonas Esteroides Gonadales/sangre , Estudios de Cohortes , Tirotropina/sangre , Glándula Tiroides/inmunología , Yoduro Peroxidasa/inmunologíaRESUMEN
Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is an oncogenic virus associated with various malignancies, including classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL). Despite its known association, the specific role of humoral immune response to EBV remains poorly characterized in cHL. To address this, we conducted a study using a custom protein microarray to measure the antibody responses in cHL patients and matched healthy controls recruited from an East-Asian hospital-based case-control study. We identified 16 IgG antibodies significantly elevated in EBV-positive cHL compared with controls, defining an "East-Asian antibody signature of EBV-positive cHL." We evaluated responses against these 16 antibodies in a distinct European population, leveraging data from our previous European cHL case-control study from the UK, Denmark, and Sweden. A subset of antibodies (14/16, 87.5%) from the "East-Asian antibody signature of EBV-positive cHL" exhibited significant associations with cHL in the European population. Conversely, we assessed the "European antibody signature of EBV-positive cHL" identified in our prior study which consisted of 18 EBV antibodies (2 IgA, 16 IgG), in the East-Asian population. A subset of these antibodies (15/18, 83.3%) maintained significant associations with cHL in the East-Asian population. This cross-comparison of antibody signatures underscores the robust generalizability of EBV antibodies across populations. Five anti-EBV IgG antibodies (LMP-1, TK, BALF2, BDLF3, and BBLF1), found in both population-specific antibody signatures, represent a "core signature of EBV-positive cHL." Our findings suggest that the antibody responses targeting these core EBV proteins reflect a specific EBV gene expression pattern, serving as potential biomarkers for EBV-positive cHL independent of population-specific factors.
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Anticuerpos Antivirales , Infecciones por Virus de Epstein-Barr , Herpesvirus Humano 4 , Enfermedad de Hodgkin , Humanos , Enfermedad de Hodgkin/virología , Enfermedad de Hodgkin/inmunología , Herpesvirus Humano 4/inmunología , Anticuerpos Antivirales/inmunología , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Femenino , Masculino , Infecciones por Virus de Epstein-Barr/inmunología , Infecciones por Virus de Epstein-Barr/virología , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto , Proteoma/inmunología , Inmunoglobulina G/sangre , Inmunoglobulina G/inmunología , Anciano , Adulto Joven , Análisis por Matrices de ProteínasRESUMEN
A previous cancer diagnosis can preclude patients from consideration for solid organ transplantation. Statistical models may improve candidate selection. We fitted statistical cure models and estimated five-year cancer-specific survival (5yCSS) for colorectal cancer patients in the United States using registry data. The median cure probability at cancer diagnosis for patients in the general population was 0.67. Among 956 colorectal cancer patients who underwent solid organ transplantation, the median time since diagnosis was 6.3 years and the median 5yCSS at transplantation was 0.96. Patients with a 5yCSS below 0.90 had increased posttransplant cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio 3.31, 95% confidence interval 1.52-7.21). Compared with recently published guidelines, our models suggested shorter wait times for some groups of colorectal cancer patients (e.g., stage IIA cancers) and longer wait times for others (stages IIB, IIIB, IIIC, IV). In conclusion, colorectal cancer patients undergoing solid organ transplantation had excellent prognoses, reflecting selection incorporating existing guidelines and clinical judgement. Nonetheless, 5yCSS probabilities estimated from cure models offer additional prognostic information for patients considered for transplantation and identify situations where current guidelines might be revised. We developed a web-based tool for clinicians to calculate 5yCSS probabilities for use in transplant evaluation for individual colorectal cancer patients (https://dceg.cancer.gov/tools/risk-assessment/calculator-of-colorectal-cancer-survival-probability).
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PURPOSE: Hysterectomy is associated with subsequent changes in circulating hormone levels, but the evidence of an association for tubal ligation is unclear. We evaluated whether circulating concentrations of androgens and estrogens differ by tubal ligation or hysterectomy status in postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI)-Observational Study (OS). METHODS: Serum androgens and estrogens were measured in 920 postmenopausal women who did not use menopausal hormone therapy at the time of blood draw, of whom 139 self-reported a history of tubal ligation and 102 reported hysterectomy (with intact ovaries). Geometric mean hormone concentrations (GMs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with a history of tubal ligation or hysterectomy (ever/never), as well as time since procedures, were estimated using adjusted linear regression with inverse probability of sampling weights to account for selection. RESULTS: Circulating levels of 12 androgen/androgen metabolites and 20 estrogen/estrogen metabolites did not differ by tubal ligation status. Among women reporting prior hysterectomy compared to women without hysterectomy, we observed lower levels of several androgens (e.g., testosterone (nmol/L): GMyes 0.46 [95% CI:0.37-0.57] vs. GMno 0.62 [95% CI:0.53-0.72]) and higher levels of estrogen metabolites, for example, 2-hydroxyestrone-3-methyl ether (GMyes 11.1 [95% CI:8.95-13.9] pmol/L vs. GMno 8.70 [95% CI:7.38-10.3]) and 4-methoxyestrone (GMyes 6.50 [95% CI:5.05-8.37] vs. GMno 4.92 [95% CI:4.00-6.05]). CONCLUSION: While we did not observe associations between prior tubal ligation and postmenopausal circulating hormone levels, our findings support that prior hysterectomy was associated with lower circulating testosterone levels and higher levels of some estrogen metabolites, which may have implications for future hormone-related disease risks.
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Our work was motivated by the question whether, and to what extent, well-established risk factors mediate the racial disparity observed for colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in the United States. Mediation analysis examines the relationships between an exposure, a mediator and an outcome. All available methods require access to a single complete data set with these three variables. However, because population-based studies usually include few non-White participants, these approaches have limited utility in answering our motivating question. Recently, we developed novel methods to integrate several data sets with incomplete information for mediation analysis. These methods have two limitations: (i) they only consider a single mediator and (ii) they require a data set containing individual-level data on the mediator and exposure (and possibly confounders) obtained by independent and identically distributed sampling from the target population. Here, we propose a new method for mediation analysis with several different data sets that accommodates complex survey and registry data, and allows for multiple mediators. The proposed approach yields unbiased causal effects estimates and confidence intervals with nominal coverage in simulations. We apply our method to data from U.S. cancer registries, a U.S.-population-representative survey and summary level odds-ratio estimates, to rigorously evaluate what proportion of the difference in CRC risk between non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks is mediated by three potentially modifiable risk factors (CRC screening history, body mass index, and regular aspirin use).
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Neoplasias Colorrectales , Análisis de Mediación , Humanos , Neoplasias Colorrectales/etnología , Neoplasias Colorrectales/epidemiología , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo , Simulación por Computador , Aspirina/uso terapéutico , Incidencia , Sistema de Registros , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Población Blanca/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Negro o Afroamericano/estadística & datos numéricos , Fuentes de InformaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: IFNL4 genetic variants that are strongly associated with clearance of hepatitis C virus have been linked to risk of certain opportunistic infections (OIs) and cancers, including Kaposi sarcoma, cytomegalovirus infection, and herpes simplex virus infection. As the interferon (IFN) λ family plays a role in response to viral, bacterial, and fungal infections, IFNL4 genotype might affect risk for a wide range of OIs/cancers. METHODS: We examined associations between genotype for the functional IFNL4 rs368234815 polymorphism and incidence of 16 OIs/cancers among 2310 men with human immunodeficiency virus (2038 white; 272 black) enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study during 1984-1990. Our primary analyses used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for self-reported racial ancestry to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals, comparing participants with the genotypes that generate IFN-λ4 and those with the genotype that abrogates IFN-λ4. We censored follow-up at the introduction of highly effective antiretroviral therapies. RESULTS: We found no statistically significant association between IFNL4 genotype and the incidence of Kaposi sarcoma (hazard ratio, 0.92 [95% confidence interval, .76-1.11]), cytomegalovirus infection (0.94 [.71-1.24]), herpes simplex virus infection (1.37 [.68-2.93]), or any other OI/cancer. We observed consistent results using additive genetic models and after controlling for CD4 cell count through time-dependent adjustment or restriction to participants with a low CD4 cell count. CONCLUSIONS: The absence of associations between IFNL4 genotype and these OIs/cancers provides evidence that this gene does not affect the risk of disease from opportunistic pathogens.
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Infecciones por Citomegalovirus , Infecciones por VIH , VIH-1 , Herpes Simple , Infecciones Oportunistas , Sarcoma de Kaposi , Masculino , Humanos , Estudios de Cohortes , Genotipo , Infecciones por VIH/complicaciones , Infecciones por VIH/genética , Herpes Simple/complicaciones , Herpes Simple/epidemiología , Herpes Simple/genética , Infecciones por Citomegalovirus/complicaciones , Infecciones por Citomegalovirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Citomegalovirus/genética , Interleucinas/genética , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido SimpleRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Emerging data indicate that variations in quantitative epithelial and stromal tissue composition and their relative abundance in benign breast biopsies independently impact risk of future invasive breast cancer. To gain further insights into breast cancer etiopathogenesis, we investigated associations between epidemiological factors and quantitative tissue composition metrics of the normal breast. METHODS: The study participants were 4108 healthy women ages 18-75 years who voluntarily donated breast tissue to the US-based Susan G. Komen Tissue Bank (KTB; 2008-2019). Using high-accuracy machine learning algorithms, we quantified the percentage of epithelial, stromal, adipose, and fibroglandular tissue, as well as the proportion of fibroglandular tissue that is epithelium relative to stroma (i.e., epithelium-to-stroma proportion, ESP) on digitized hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained normal breast biopsy specimens. Data on epidemiological factors were obtained from participants using a detailed questionnaire administered at the time of tissue donation. Associations between epidemiological factors and square root transformed tissue metrics were investigated using multivariable linear regression models. RESULTS: With increasing age, the amount of stromal, epithelial, and fibroglandular tissue declined and adipose tissue increased, while that of ESP demonstrated a bimodal pattern. Several epidemiological factors were associated with individual tissue composition metrics, impacting ESP as a result. Compared with premenopausal women, postmenopausal women had lower ESP [ß (95% Confidence Interval (CI)) = -0.28 (- 0.43, - 0.13); P < 0.001] with ESP peaks at 30-40 years and 60-70 years among pre- and postmenopausal women, respectively. Pregnancy [ß (95%CI) vs nulligravid = 0.19 (0.08, 0.30); P < 0.001] and increasing number of live births (P-trend < 0.001) were positively associated with ESP, while breastfeeding was inversely associated with ESP [ß (95%CI) vs no breastfeeding = -0.15 (- 0.29, - 0.01); P = 0.036]. A positive family history of breast cancer (FHBC) [ß (95%CI) vs no FHBC = 0.14 (0.02-0.26); P = 0.02], being overweight or obese [ß (95%CI) vs normal weight = 0.18 (0.06-0.30); P = 0.004 and 0.32 (0.21-0.44); P < 0.001, respectively], and Black race [ß (95%CI) vs White = 0.12 (- 0.005, 0.25); P = 0.06] were positively associated with ESP. CONCLUSION: Our findings revealed that cumulative exposure to etiological factors over the lifespan impacts normal breast tissue composition metrics, individually or jointly, to alter their dynamic equilibrium, with potential implications for breast cancer susceptibility and tumor etiologic heterogeneity.
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Neoplasias de la Mama , Embarazo , Femenino , Humanos , Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/etiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/patología , Benchmarking , Factores de Riesgo , Mama/patología , Obesidad/patología , Estilo de VidaRESUMEN
In the United States, renal cell carcinoma (RCC) incidence and the prevalence of obesity, an established risk factor for RCC, have been increasing for several decades. RCC is more common among older individuals. We sought to quantify the contribution of excess adiposity to the rising incidence of RCC among individuals 60 years or older. National Institutes of Health-American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health Study data (n = 453 859 participants, enrolled in 1995-1996, age at enrollment 50-71 years) were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for RCC across body mass index categories and HRs associated with smoking. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using estimated HRs and annual overweight/obesity prevalence from the National Health Interview Survey (1985-2008). PAF estimates were combined with RCC incidence from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-13 to calculate annual percent changes in RCC incidence attributable (and unrelated) to overweight/obesity. We found that between 1995 and 2018, among individuals aged 60 years and older, PAF for overweight/obesity increased from 18% to 29% for all RCCs. In comparison, the PAF for smoking declined from 12% to 9%. RCC incidence increased 1.8% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5%-2.1%) overall, while RCC incidence attributable to overweight/obesity increased 3.8% per year (95%CI 3.5%-4.2%) and RCC incidence unrelated to overweight/obesity increased 1.2% per year (95% CI 0.9%-1.4%). In conclusion, overweight/obesity appears to have contributed importantly to the rising incidence of RCC in the United States since the mid-1990s. Public health interventions focused on reducing overweight and obesity could help substantially in curbing this trend.
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Carcinoma de Células Renales , Neoplasias Renales , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Carcinoma de Células Renales/epidemiología , Sobrepeso/complicaciones , Sobrepeso/epidemiología , Incidencia , Obesidad/complicaciones , Obesidad/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo , Neoplasias Renales/epidemiología , Neoplasias Renales/etiología , Índice de Masa CorporalRESUMEN
Pancreatic cancer (PC) is highly fatal, and its incidence is increasing in the United States. Population-based registry studies suggest associations between a few autoimmune conditions and PC risk, albeit based on a relatively small number of cases. We conducted a population-based, nested case-control study to examine the associations between autoimmune conditions and PC risk within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER)-Medicare population. Incident primary malignant PC cases (n = 80 074) were adults ≥66 years and diagnosed between 1992 and 2015. Controls (n = 320 296) were alive at the time cases were diagnosed and frequency-matched to cases (4:1 ratio) by age, sex, and year of diagnosis. We used multivariable-adjusted, unconditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 45 autoimmune conditions identified from Medicare claims. Eight autoimmune conditions including ankylosing spondylitis (OR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.14-1.84), Graves' disease (OR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03-1.34), localized scleroderma (OR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.06-1.52), pernicious anemia (OR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14), primary sclerosing cholangitis (OR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.18-1.59), pure red cell aplasia (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.16-1.47), type 1 diabetes (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.07-1.15), and ulcerative colitis (OR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.07-1.31) were associated with increased PC risk (false discovery rate-adjusted P values <.10). In subtype analyses, these conditions were associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, whereas only ulcerative colitis was associated with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. Our results support the hypothesis that autoimmune conditions may play a role in PC development.
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Enfermedades Autoinmunes , Colitis Ulcerosa , Neoplasias Pancreáticas , Humanos , Anciano , Adulto , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Medicare , Páncreas , Neoplasias Pancreáticas/epidemiología , Neoplasias Pancreáticas/etiología , Enfermedades Autoinmunes/complicaciones , Enfermedades Autoinmunes/epidemiología , Neoplasias PancreáticasRESUMEN
Gut barrier dysfunction can result in the liver being exposed to an elevated level of gut-derived bacterial products via portal circulation. Growing evidence suggests that systemic exposure to these bacterial products promotes liver diseases including hepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prospective studies have not examined the association between biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and HCC risk in a population of hepatitis B or C viral (HBV/HCV) carriers. We investigated whether prediagnostic, circulating biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction were associated with HCC risk, using the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer (REVEAL)-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohorts from Taiwan. REVEAL-HBV included 185 cases and 161 matched controls, and REVEAL-HCV 96 cases and 96 matched controls. The biomarkers quantitated were immunoglobulin A (IgA), IgG, and IgM against lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and flagellin, soluble CD14 (an LPS coreceptor), and LPS-binding protein (LBP). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between biomarker levels and HCC were calculated using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression. A doubling of the circulating levels of antiflagellin IgA or LBP was associated with a 76% to 93% increased risk of HBV-related HCC (OR per one unit change in log2 antiflagellin IgA = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.06-2.93; OR for LBP = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.10-3.38). None of the other markers were associated with an increased risk of HBV-related or HCV-related HCC. Results were similar when cases diagnosed in the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded. Our findings contribute to understanding the interplay of gut barrier dysfunction and primary liver cancer etiology.
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Carcinoma Hepatocelular , Hepatitis B , Hepatitis C , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Humanos , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/epidemiología , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiología , Virus de la Hepatitis B , Estudios Prospectivos , Lipopolisacáridos , Hepatitis B/complicaciones , Hepatitis B/epidemiología , Estudios de Cohortes , Biomarcadores , Inmunoglobulina A , Hepatitis C/complicaciones , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
Little is known about the outcomes among solid organ transplant recipients with a pretransplant cancer diagnosis. We used linked data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients with 33 US cancer registries. Cox proportional hazards models assessed associations of pretransplant cancer with overall mortality, cancer-specific mortality, and development of a new posttransplant cancer. Among 311 677 recipients, the presence of a single pretransplant cancer was associated with increased overall mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.15-1.23) and cancer-specific mortality (aHR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.76-2.12); results for 2+ pretransplant cancers were similar. Cancer-specific mortality was not significantly increased for uterine, prostate, or thyroid cancers (aHRs were 0.83, 1.22, and 1.54, respectively) but strongly elevated for lung cancer and myeloma (aHRs were 3.72 and 4.42, respectively). A pretransplant cancer diagnosis was also associated with increased risk of developing posttransplant cancer (aHR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.23-1.40). Among 306 recipients whose cancer death was confirmed by cancer registry data, 158 deaths (51.6%) were from a de novo posttransplant cancer and 105 (34.3%) from the pretransplant cancer. Pretransplant cancer diagnoses are associated with increased mortality after transplantation, but some deaths are related to posttransplant cancers and other causes. Improved candidate selection and cancer screening and prevention may reduce mortality in this population.
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Neoplasias , Trasplante de Órganos , Masculino , Humanos , Factores de Riesgo , Receptores de Trasplantes , Neoplasias/complicaciones , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Sistema de Registros , Trasplante de Órganos/efectos adversos , IncidenciaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the incidence of major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in elderly patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT) and the impact of parathyroidectomy. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: pHPT is underdiagnosed and undertreated in the United States. It is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk, but its association with cerebrovascular disease risk is not well-established. It is also unknown if parathyroidectomy reduces these risks. METHODS: The incidence of major cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events in 108,869 patients with pHPT diagnosed in the Medicare database between 2008 and 2018 and a matched comparison group of 1,088,690 Medicare subjects was prospectively evaluated. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) for the association of pHPT and parathyroidectomy for the risk of these outcomes from Cox proportional hazards models. Survival curves were calculated to obtain 5-year disease-free survival estimates. RESULTS: For patients with pHPT, five-year disease-free survival was lower, and HRs were higher than the comparison group for any outcome (75.9% vs. 78.4; HR 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.13), major cerebrovascular events (84.5% vs. 86.3%; HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.12-1.17), and major cardiovascular events (87.7% vs. 88.8%; HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.08). However, in patients who had parathyroidectomy, the risks of major cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events did not differ from the comparison cohort. The lower risk in patients who had parathyroidectomy was maintained in subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Older patients with pHPT have an increased risk of major cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events compared with patients without the disease. Physicians treating older patients with primary hyperparathyroidism should consider parathyroidectomy.R.M.P. and N.N. contributed equally to the preparation of this manuscript.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Hiperparatiroidismo Primario , Humanos , Anciano , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Hiperparatiroidismo Primario/complicaciones , Hiperparatiroidismo Primario/cirugía , Paratiroidectomía , Medicare , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/etiología , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/complicacionesRESUMEN
When validating a risk model in an independent cohort, some predictors may be missing for some subjects. Missingness can be unplanned or by design, as in case-cohort or nested case-control studies, in which some covariates are measured only in subsampled subjects. Weighting methods and imputation are used to handle missing data. We propose methods to increase the efficiency of weighting to assess calibration of a risk model (i.e. bias in model predictions), which is quantified by the ratio of the number of observed events, $\mathcal{O}$, to expected events, $\mathcal{E}$, computed from the model. We adjust known inverse probability weights by incorporating auxiliary information available for all cohort members. We use survey calibration that requires the weighted sum of the auxiliary statistics in the complete data subset to equal their sum in the full cohort. We show that a pseudo-risk estimate that approximates the actual risk value but uses only variables available for the entire cohort is an excellent auxiliary statistic to estimate $\mathcal{E}$. We derive analytic variance formulas for $\mathcal{O}/\mathcal{E}$ with adjusted weights. In simulations, weight adjustment with pseudo-risk was much more efficient than inverse probability weighting and yielded consistent estimates even when the pseudo-risk was a poor approximation. Multiple imputation was often efficient but yielded biased estimates when the imputation model was misspecified. Using these methods, we assessed calibration of an absolute risk model for second primary thyroid cancer in an independent cohort.
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Calibración , Sesgo , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Estudios de Cohortes , Simulación por Computador , Humanos , ProbabilidadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a female predominance, whereas the other biliary tract cancers (BTCs) have a male predominance, suggesting that sex hormones may be involved in carcinogenesis. We sought to evaluate the association between menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and the risk of BTC in women. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This nested case-control study was conducted in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2017 with incident primary cancers of the gallbladder (GBC), cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), ampulla of Vater (AVC), and mixed type were matched to 5 controls on birth year, diagnosis year, and years in the general practice using incidence density sampling. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate ORs and 95% CIs for associations between MHT use and BTC type. The sample consisted of 1,682 BTC cases (483 GBC, 870 CCA, 105 AVC, and 224 mixed) and 8,419 matched controls with a mean age of 73 (SD, 11) years. Combined formulations (estrogen-progesterone) were associated with an increased GBC risk (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.08, 3.59). Orally administered MHT was associated with an increased GBC risk (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.24, 4.17). Estrogen-only formulations (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.34, 0.93) and cream or suppository administrations (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.34, 0.95) were associated with decreased CCA risk. The number of prescriptions, dose, duration of use, and time since last use were not associated with GBC or CCA risk. MHT use was not associated with risk of AVC or mixed cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Combination MHT formulations and oral administrations were associated with increased GBC risk, whereas estrogen-only formulations were associated with a lower CCA risk. MHT formulation and administration should be carefully considered when prescribing.
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Ampolla Hepatopancreática , Colangiocarcinoma/epidemiología , Neoplasias del Conducto Colédoco/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Vesícula Biliar/epidemiología , Terapia de Reemplazo de Hormonas , Neoplasias Complejas y Mixtas/epidemiología , Administración Oral , Administración Tópica , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Combinación de Medicamentos , Estrógenos/uso terapéutico , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Menopausia , Persona de Mediana Edad , Progesterona/uso terapéutico , Progestinas/uso terapéutico , Factores de Riesgo , Supositorios , Reino Unido/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Shahn, Hernan, and Robins give conditions under which estimates from a case-crossover analysis converge to the desired causal relative risk times a bias factor, and they discuss conditions needed to have small bias. To simplify the problem, we discuss only two exposure times and rely on randomized exposure assignments, thereby avoiding the need for potential outcome notation. We identify many, but not all, of the conditions discussed by Shahn et al. in this simple analysis.
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Pájaros Cantores , Animales , Estudios Cruzados , Causalidad , Sesgo , Proyectos de InvestigaciónRESUMEN
We propose and study structured time-dependent inverse regression (STIR), a novel sufficient dimension reduction model, to analyze longitudinally measured, correlated biomarkers in relation to an outcome. The time structure is accommodated in an inverse regression model for the markers that can be applied both to equally and unequally spaced time points for each sample. The inverse regression structure also naturally accommodates retrospectively sampled markers, that is, markers measured in case-control studies. We estimate the corresponding linear combinations of the markers, the reduction, using least squares. We show that under additional distributional assumptions the reduction contains sufficient information about the outcome. In extensive simulations the STIR linear combinations perform well in predictive models based on samples of realistic size. A Wald-type test for association of a particular marker with outcome at any time point based on the STIR reduction has better power overall than assessing associations based on logistic or linear regression models that include all longitudinally measured markers as independent predictors. As illustrations we estimate the STIR reductions for a cohort study of diabetes and hyperlipidemia and a case-control study of brain cancer with multiple longitudinally measured biomarkers. We assess the STIR reductions' predictive performance and identify outcome-associated biomarkers.
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Estudios de Cohortes , Humanos , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Estudios Retrospectivos , Análisis de los Mínimos Cuadrados , BiomarcadoresRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Terminal duct lobular units (TDLUs) are the structures in the breast that give rise to most breast cancers. Previous work has shown that TDLU involution is inversely associated with TDLU metrics, such as TDLU count/100mm2, TDLU span (µm), and number of acini/TDLU, and that these metrics may be elevated in the normal breast tissue of women diagnosed with triple-negative (TN) compared with luminal A breast tumors. It is unknown whether this relationship exists in Black women, who have the highest incidence of TN breast cancer and the highest overall breast cancer mortality rate. We examined relationships between TDLU metrics and breast cancer molecular subtype among breast cancer cases in the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS). METHODS: We assessed quantitative TDLU metrics (TDLU count/100mm2, TDLU span (µm), and number of acini/TDLU) in digitized 247 hematoxylin and eosin-stained adjacent normal tissue sections from 223 BWHS breast cancer cases, including 65 triple negative (TN) cancers (estrogen receptor (ER) negative, progesterone receptor (PR) negative, human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2) negative) and 158 luminal A cancers (ER positive, HER2 negative). We evaluated associations of least square mean TDLU metrics adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI) with patient and clinical characteristics. In logistic regression models, we evaluated associations between TDLU metrics and breast cancer subtype, adjusting for age, BMI, and tumor size. RESULTS: Older age and higher BMI were associated with lower TDLU metrics and larger tumor size and lymph node invasion with higher TDLU metrics. The odds of TN compared with luminal A breast cancer increased with increasing tertiles of TDLU metrics, with odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for tertile 3 versus tertile 1 of 2.18 (0.99, 4.79), 2.77 (1.07, 7.16), and 1.77 (0.79, 3.98) for TDLU count, TDLU span, and acini count/TDLU, respectively. CONCLUSION: Associations of TDLU metrics with breast cancer subtypes in the BWHS are consistent with previous studies of White and Asian women, demonstrating reduced TDLU involution in TN compared with luminal A breast cancers. Further investigation is needed to understand the factors that influence TDLU involution and the mechanisms that mediate TDLU involution and breast cancer subtype.
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Neoplasias de la Mama , Glándulas Mamarias Humanas , Neoplasias de la Mama Triple Negativas , Femenino , Humanos , Neoplasias de la Mama/patología , Glándulas Mamarias Humanas/patología , Receptor ErbB-2 , Receptores de Progesterona , Factores de Riesgo , Neoplasias de la Mama Triple Negativas/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Mama Triple Negativas/patología , Salud de la MujerRESUMEN
Immunity may play a role in preventing cancer progression. We studied associations of immune-related conditions with cancer-specific mortality among older adults in the United States. We evaluated 1 229 443 patients diagnosed with 20 common cancer types (age 67-99, years 1993-2013) using Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare data. With Medicare claims, we ascertained immune-related medical conditions diagnosed before cancer diagnosis (4 immunosuppressive conditions [n = 3380 affected cases], 32 autoimmune conditions [n = 155 766], 3 allergic conditions [n = 101 366]). For each cancer site, we estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cancer-specific mortality associated with each condition, applying a Bonferroni cutoff for significance (P < 5.1 × 10-5 ). Bayesian metaanalysis methods were used to detect patterns across groups of conditions and cancers. We observed 21 associations with cancer-specific mortality at the Bonferroni threshold. Increased cancer-specific mortality was observed with rheumatoid arthritis for patients with melanoma (aHR 1.51, 95% CI 1.31-1.75) and breast cancer (1.24, 1.15-1.33)), and with hemolytic anemia for bladder cancer (2.54, 1.68-3.82). Significant inverse associations with cancer-specific mortality were observed for allergic rhinitis (range of aHRs: 0.84-0.94) and asthma (0.83-0.95) for cancers of the lung, breast, and prostate. Cancer-specific mortality was nominally elevated in patients with immunosuppressive conditions for eight cancer types (aHR range: 1.27-2.36; P-value range: 7.5 × 10-5 to 3.1 × 10-2 ) and was strongly associated with grouped immunosuppressive conditions using Bayesian metaanalyses methods. For older patients with several cancer types, certain immunosuppressive and autoimmune conditions were associated with increased cancer-specific mortality. In contrast, inverse associations with allergic conditions may reflect enhanced immune control of cancer.