Mortality trends in type 1 diabetes: a multicountry analysis of six population-based cohorts.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Mortality has declined in people with type 1 diabetes in recent decades. We examined how the pattern of decline differs by country, age and sex, and how mortality trends in type 1 diabetes relate to trends in general population mortality. METHODS: We assembled aggregate data on all-cause mortality during the period 2000-2016 in people with type 1 diabetes aged 0-79 years from Australia, Denmark, Latvia, Scotland, Spain (Catalonia) and the USA (Kaiser Permanente Northwest). Data were obtained from administrative sources, health insurance records and registries. All-cause mortality rates in people with type 1 diabetes, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) comparing type 1 diabetes with the non-diabetic population, were modelled using Poisson regression, with age and calendar time as quantitative variables, describing the effects using restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. Mortality rates were standardised to the age distribution of the aggregate population with type 1 diabetes. RESULTS: All six data sources showed a decline in age- and sex-standardised all-cause mortality rates in people with type 1 diabetes from 2000 to 2016 (or a subset thereof), with annual changes in mortality rates ranging from -2.1% (95% CI -2.8%, -1.3%) to -5.8% (95% CI -6.5%, -5.1%). All-cause mortality was higher for male individuals and for older individuals, but the rate of decline in mortality was generally unaffected by sex or age. SMR was higher in female individuals than male individuals, and appeared to peak at ages 40-70 years. SMR declined over time in Denmark, Scotland and Spain, while remaining stable in the other three data sources. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: All-cause mortality in people with type 1 diabetes has declined in recent years in most included populations, but improvements in mortality relative to the non-diabetic population are less consistent.

International comparison of glycaemic control in people with type 1 diabetes: an update and extension.

AIMS: To update and extend a previous cross-sectional international comparison of glycaemic control in people with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Data were obtained for 520,392 children and adults with type 1 diabetes from 17 population and five clinic-based data sources in countries or regions between 2016 and 2020. Median HbA1c (IQR) and proportions of individuals with HbA1c < 58 mmol/mol (<7.5%), 58-74 mmol/mol (7.5-8.9%) and ≥75 mmol/mol (≥9.0%) were compared between populations for individuals aged <15, 15-24 and ≥25 years. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of HbA1c < 58 mmol/mol (<7.5%) relative to ≥58 mmol/mol (≥7.5%), stratified and adjusted for sex, age and data source. Where possible, changes in the proportion of individuals in each HbA1c category compared to previous estimates were calculated. RESULTS: Median HbA1c varied from 55 to 79 mmol/mol (7.2 to 9.4%) across data sources and age groups so a pooled estimate was deemed inappropriate. OR (95% CI) for HbA1c < 58 mmol/mol (<7.5%) were 0.91 (0.90-0.92) for women compared to men, 1.68 (1.65-1.71) for people aged <15 years and 0.81 (0.79-0.82) aged15-24 years compared to those aged ≥25 years. Differences between populations persisted after adjusting for sex, age and data source. In general, compared to our previous analysis, the proportion of people with an HbA1c  < 58 mmol/l (<7.5%) increased and proportions of people with HbA1c ≥ 75 mmol/mol (≥9.0%) decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Glycaemic control of type 1 diabetes continues to vary substantially between age groups and data sources. While some improvement over time has been observed, glycaemic control remains sub-optimal for most people with Type 1 diabetes.

Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia: a population-level analysis of all-cause and noncommunicable disease deaths in 2020.

BACKGROUND: Age-standardised noncommunicable disease (NCD) mortality and the proportion of the elderly population in Latvia are high, while public health and health care systems are underresourced. The emerging COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about its detrimental impact on all-cause and noncommunicable disease mortality in Latvia. We estimated the timing and number of excess all-cause and cause-specific deaths in 2020 in Latvia due to COVID-19 and selected noncommunicable diseases. METHODS: A time series analysis of all-cause and cause-specific weekly mortality from COVID-19, circulatory diseases, malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and chronic lower respiratory diseases from the National Causes of Death Database from 2015 to 2020 was used by applying generalised additive modelling (GAM) and joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: Between weeks 14 and 52 (from 1 April to 29 December) of 2020, a total of 3111 excess deaths (95% PI 1339 - 4832) were estimated in Latvia, resulting in 163.77 excess deaths per 100 000. Since September 30, with the outbreak of the second COVID-19 wave, 55% of all excess deaths have occurred. Altogether, COVID-19-related deaths accounted for only 28% of the estimated all-cause excess deaths. A significant increase in excess mortality was estimated for circulatory diseases (68.91 excess deaths per 100 000). Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were listed as the underlying cause in almost 60% of COVID-19-contributing deaths. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality and mortality from circulatory diseases significantly increased in Latvia during the first pandemic year. All-cause excess mortality substantially exceeded reported COVID-19-related deaths, implying COVID-19-related mortality during was significantly underestimated. Increasing mortality from circulatory diseases suggests a negative cumulative effect of COVID-19 exposure and reduced access to healthcare services for NCD patients.

Pre-existing diabetes mellitus and all-cause mortality in cancer patients: a register-based study in Latvia.

BACKGROUND: Most studies from high income countries consistently report that preexisting diabetes reduces overall survival of cancer patients. We examined this association in a retrospective cohort study using two nation-wide population-based data sets in Latvia. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Cancer Register, linked with the Diabetes Register and Causes of Death Database, was the first data source used to select 22,936 men and 25,338 women with cancer diagnosed from 2009 to 2013. The follow-up period ended on 28 February 2015. The National Health Service data served as a second data source, which was used to select 10,130 men and 13,236 women with cancer as the main diagnosis, who were discharged from oncology hospitals from 2009 to 2012. Prescriptions of reimbursed antidiabetic medications indicated prior diabetes status. The follow-up period started at the date of discharge and ended on 31 December 2013. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess association between preexisting diabetes and all-cause mortality, adjusted for age. RESULTS: Men with preexisting diabetes had better overall short-term survival: the age-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) were 0.86 (0.79-0.93) for the first year and 0.89 (0.80-0.98) for the first two years after cancer diagnosis according to the disease register and health service data, respectively. After three full follow-up years, their relative mortality increased, with an age-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.60 (1.28-1.99). Among women, preexisting diabetes was associated with slightly higher all-cause mortality during the entire follow-up period, with age-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.17 (1.10-1.24) for the disease register data and 1.11 (1.02-1.21) for the health service data. CONCLUSION: Interestingly, we found better overall survival of diabetic men during the first years after cancer diagnosis. We hypothesize that access to health services may be advantageous to diabetic patients who are in close contact with the healthcare system.

Monitoring the prevalence of severe intellectual disability in children across Europe: feasibility of a common database.

AIM: Our aim was to study the feasibility of creating a framework for monitoring and undertaking collaborative research on intellectual disability at the European level, based on existing databases of children with such disability. METHOD: The characteristics of five existing European intellectual disability databases from four countries (Iceland, Latvia, Ireland, and two in France), were discussed on the basis of ideal criteria set by a working group on childhood intellectual disability as part of the Surveillance of Cerebral Palsy in Europe Network (SCPE-NET). Mean prevalence values for severe intellectual disability for the birth years 1990 till 2002 were compared across databases. RESULTS: Methods of case recruitment and diagnosis differed across databases, but classification of intellectual disability and completeness were similar. Severe intellectual disability (IQ<50) prevalence estimates were significantly (p<0.001) different across databases (south-east France: 3.3 out of 1000; south-west France: 3.0 out of 1000; Latvia: 3.9 out of 1000; Ireland: 5.0 out of 1000; and Iceland 5.1 out of 1000). INTERPRETATION: In spite of differences in diagnosis and case inclusion across databases, the construction of a common database for severe intellectual disability was deemed feasible through harmonization of certain criteria, such as age, and through restriction to those with severe intellectual disability.

The mortality of patients with diabetes mellitus in Latvia 2000-2012.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In Latvia, like in other European countries, the incidence of diabetes mellitus is increasing and so it is important to find out what the trends in the mortality of diabetes mellitus in Latvia are. The aim of this study was to calculate the mortality indicators of diabetes patients in Latvia from 2000 to 2012 and compare mortality among diabetes mellitus patients with mortality among the population of Latvia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was carried out with a quantitative statistical analysis approach. In the study, all the registered patients with diabetes mellitus from 2000 to 2012 were included. RESULTS: Mortality in a population with diabetes decreased statistically significantly from 57.76 per 1000py in 2000 to 45.33 per 1000py in 2012. In the general population of Latvia, there were no statistically significant changes; the mortality in 2000 was 13.56 per 1000py, in 2012 - 14.24 per 1000py. The age-standardised mortality ratio of the population with diabetes and the population of Latvia decreased from 1.71 (95% CI=1.62-1.81) in 2000 to 1.23 (95% CI=1.19-1.27) in 2012. CONCLUSIONS: In Latvia the mortality of patients with diabetes exceeds mortality in the general population. Mortality rates are higher for men and older patients, however, compared to mortality in the general population, diabetes increases the risk of death; especially for women and for younger patients. There is a tendency that the mortality indicators of patients with diabetes and mortality indicators in the general population are becoming closer.

Trends in all-cause mortality among people with diagnosed diabetes in high-income settings: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data.

BACKGROUND: Population-level trends in mortality among people with diabetes are inadequately described. We aimed to examine the magnitude and trends in excess all-cause mortality in people with diabetes. METHODS: In this retrospective, multicountry analysis, we collected aggregate data from 19 data sources in 16 high-income countries or jurisdictions (in six data sources in Asia, eight in Europe, one from Australia, and four from North America) for the period from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2016, (or a subset of this period) on all-cause mortality in people with diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes. We collected data from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We estimated excess mortality using the standardised mortality ratio (SMR). FINDINGS: In our dataset, there were approximately 21 million deaths during 0·5 billion person-years of follow-up among people with diagnosed diabetes. 17 of 19 data sources showed decreases in the age-standardised and sex-standardised mortality in people with diabetes, among which the annual percentage change in mortality ranged from -0·5% (95% CI -0·7 to -0·3) in Hungary to -4·2% (-4·3 to -4·1) in Hong Kong. The largest decreases in mortality were observed in east and southeast Asia, with a change of -4·2% (95% CI -4·3 to -4·1) in Hong Kong, -4·0% (-4·8 to -3·2) in South Korea, -3·5% (-4·0 to -3·0) in Taiwan, and -3·6% (-4·2 to -2·9) in Singapore. The annual estimated change in SMR between people with and without diabetes ranged from -3·0% (95% CI -3·0 to -2·9; US Medicare) to 1·6% (1·4 to 1·7; Lombardy, Italy). Among the 17 data sources with decreasing mortality among people with diabetes, we found a significant SMR increase in five data sources, no significant SMR change in four data sources, and a significant SMR decrease in eight data sources. INTERPRETATION: All-cause mortality in diabetes has decreased in most of the high-income countries we assessed. In eight of 19 data sources analysed, mortality decreased more rapidly in people with diabetes than in those without diabetes. Further longevity gains will require continued improvement in prevention and management of diabetes. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.

Lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes in 23 high-income jurisdictions: a multinational, population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is a major public health issue. Because lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost are meaningful metrics for clinical decision making, we aimed to estimate these measures for type 2 diabetes in the high-income setting. METHODS: For this multinational, population-based study, we sourced data from 24 databases for 23 jurisdictions (either whole countries or regions of a country): Australia; Austria; Canada; Denmark; Finland; France; Germany; Hong Kong; Hungary; Israel; Italy; Japan; Latvia; Lithuania; the Netherlands; Norway; Scotland; Singapore; South Korea; Spain; Taiwan; the UK; and the USA. Our main outcomes were lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes, life expectancy in people with and without type 2 diabetes, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes. We modelled the incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in people with and without type 2 diabetes in sex-stratified, age-adjusted, and calendar year-adjusted Poisson models for each jurisdiction. Using incidence and mortality, we constructed life tables for people of both sexes aged 20-100 years for each jurisdiction and at two timepoints 5 years apart in the period 2005-19 where possible. Life expectancy from a given age was computed as the area under the survival curves and lifetime lost was calculated as the difference between the expected lifetime of people with versus without type 2 diabetes at a given age. Lifetime risk was calculated as the proportion of each cohort who developed type 2 diabetes between the ages of 20 years and 100 years. We estimated 95% CIs using parametric bootstrapping. FINDINGS: Across all study cohorts from the 23 jurisdictions (total person-years 1 577 234 194), there were 5 119 585 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 4 007 064 deaths in those with type 2 diabetes, and 11 854 043 deaths in those without type 2 diabetes. The lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes ranged from 16·3% (95% CI 15·6-17·0) for Scottish women to 59·6% (58·5-60·8) for Singaporean men. Lifetime risk declined with time in 11 of the 15 jurisdictions for which two timepoints were studied. Among people with type 2 diabetes, the highest life expectancies were found for both sexes in Japan in 2017-18, where life expectancy at age 20 years was 59·2 years (95% CI 59·2-59·3) for men and 64·1 years (64·0-64·2) for women. The lowest life expectancy at age 20 years with type 2 diabetes was observed in 2013-14 in Lithuania (43·7 years [42·7-44·6]) for men and in 2010-11 in Latvia (54·2 years [53·4-54·9]) for women. Life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes increased with time for both sexes in all jurisdictions, except for Spain and Scotland. The life expectancy gap between those with and without type 2 diabetes declined substantially in Latvia from 2010-11 to 2015-16 and in the USA from 2009-10 to 2014-15. Years of life lost to type 2 diabetes ranged from 2·5 years (Latvia; 2015-16) to 12·9 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2015-16) for 20-year-old men and from 3·1 years (Finland; 2011-12) to 11·2 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2010-11 and 2015-16) for 20-year-old women. With time, the expected number of years of life lost to type 2 diabetes decreased in some jurisdictions and increased in others. The greatest decrease in years of life lost to type 2 diabetes occurred in the USA between 2009-10 and 2014-15 for 20-year-old men (a decrease of 2·7 years). INTERPRETATION: Despite declining lifetime risk and improvements in life expectancy for those with type 2 diabetes in many high-income jurisdictions, the burden of type 2 diabetes remains substantial. Public health strategies might benefit from tailored approaches to continue to improve health outcomes for people with diabetes. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Diabetes Australia.

Trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data from 22 million diagnoses in high-income and middle-income settings.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes prevalence is increasing in most places in the world, but prevalence is affected by both risk of developing diabetes and survival of those with diabetes. Diabetes incidence is a better metric to understand the trends in population risk of diabetes. Using a multicountry analysis, we aimed to ascertain whether the incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has changed over time. METHODS: In this multicountry data analysis, we assembled aggregated data describing trends in diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes incidence from 24 population-based data sources in 21 countries or jurisdictions. Data were from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We modelled incidence rates with Poisson regression, using age and calendar time (1995-2018) as variables, describing the effects with restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. FINDINGS: Our data included about 22 million diabetes diagnoses from 5 billion person-years of follow-up. Data were from 19 high-income and two middle-income countries or jurisdictions. 23 data sources had data from 2010 onwards, among which 19 had a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimated change in incidence ranging from -1·1% to -10·8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010 onwards, the annual estimated change ranged from 0·9% to 5·6%. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding data sources in which the data quality was lower and were consistent in analyses stratified by different diabetes definitions. INTERPRETATION: The incidence of diagnosed diabetes is stabilising or declining in many high-income countries. The reasons for the declines in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes warrant further investigation with appropriate data sources. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.