Geographic disparities in violent crime during the COVID-19 lockdown in Miami-Dade County, Florida, 2018-2020.

Objectives: This study uses two cluster detection techniques to identify clusters of violent crime during the 3 months of the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown in Miami-Dade County compared to that during an equivalent period in 2018 and 2019. Methods: Violent crime data from the Miami-Dade Central Records Bureau were analyzed. The Local Indicators of Spatial Association statistics and a space-time permutation statistic were used to identify clusters of violent crimes and outliers, and Global Moran's I tool was used to assess spatial patterning in violent crime. Neighborhood disadvantage data were obtained from the American Community Survey 5-year estimates linked with arrest locations. Results: Violent crime arrests fell by 7.1% in 2020. Arrests were concentrated in predominantly Black disadvantaged neighborhoods in the northern part, and similar results were produced for core clusters by the two cluster techniques with positive global Moran's I for all study years. Although accounting for only 17% of the county population, nearly half of violent crime arrests were for Black or African American. Males comprised most violent crime arrests. Conclusions: Crime prevention and intervention efforts should be focused on both high-risk places and offenders.

Why twin studies are important for health span science research: the case of maltreatment of aging adults.

Average life expectancies have lengthened across human history. As a result, there is an increased need to care for a greater number of individuals experiencing common age-related declines in health. This has helped to spur a rapidly increasing focus on understanding "health span", the portion of the life-course spent functionally healthy. Yet to penetrate the science of health span, however, is a topic which seems fundamental to the ability to age in functional and healthy ways, and has received considerable attention in other fields. As more of the population ages, the risk of exposure to abuse and neglect among older citizens not only rises, but can manifest as both cause and effect of declining health span. Among our goals here is to make a case for including this subject among the other central components of health span science. In so doing, we also outline reasons why quantitative genetic designs using samples of twins can be a versatile tool for improving causal inference when studying maltreatment among older persons specifically, but also on a range of other health span topics in general.

COVID-19 and social distancing measures in Queensland, Australia, are associated with short-term decreases in recorded violent crime.

Objectives: The objective of this study is to test whether recorded rates of violent crime declined in the context of social distancing regulations in Queensland, Australia. Methods: ARIMA modeling was used to compute 6-month-ahead forecasts of rates for common assault, serious assault, sexual offenses, and breaches of domestic violence orders. These forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) are compared to the observed data for March and April 2020. Results: By the end of April, 2020, rates of common, serious, and sexual assault had declined to their lowest level in a number of years. For serious assault and sexual assault, the decline was beyond statistical expectations. The rate at which domestic violence orders were breached remained unchanged. Conclusions: Social distancing regulations are temporally correlated with reductions in some violent crimes. Social distancing is likely to have significantly limited interpersonal interaction, especially in locations and at times when violence is usually prevalent.

Violence in the Big Apple throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A borough-specific analysis.

In early 2020, the world faced a rapid, life-changing, public health crisis in the form of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The pandemic and its associated social-distancing measures collided with a period of social unrest following the murder of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police and persisted for nearly two years following its emergence. The current study adds to existing research by examining the effect of these events on the incidence of violence (shootings and assaults) in New York City (NYC) over a longer period of time, both in the city as a whole and at the borough-level. To accomplish this, the current study draws from publicly available data using series of analytical techniques to account for underlying trends, seasonality, and temperature while also estimating borough-specific effects. Results indicate that the prevalence of COVID-19 cases, associated social-distancing mandates, and the period of social unrest following Floyd's murder were associated with violence in NYC. Further, findings suggest while a number of the factors explored had consistent effects across each of NYC's five boroughs there was some evidence of heterogeneity. The implications for future research on the COVID-19 pandemic are discussed.

Neurodisability among Children at the Nexus of the Child Welfare and Youth Justice System.

Although neurodisability features significantly across child welfare and youth justice cohorts, little research investigates neurodisability among crossover children with dual systems involvement. This study examined differences in childhood adversity, child protection involvement, and offending among crossover children by neurodisability status. Data were from a sample of 300 children (68% male, 31% female, 1% transgender; mean age = 16.2 years, range 10-21) who were charged and appeared in three Australian children's courts, and who also had statutory child protection involvement in the study jurisdiction. The results indicated that nearly one-half of crossover children had a neurodisability (48%) and this group experienced greater cumulative maltreatment and adversity, earlier out-of-home care entry and offending onset, more caregiver relinquishment and residential care placement, and a greater volume of charges. While substantial differences between specific neurodisabilities were evident, crossover children with any neurodisability had greater odds of having charges related to criminal damage and motor vehicle theft, however they were no more likely to have violent charges relative to other crossover children. The study's findings demonstrated that the prevalence of neurodisability, and child welfare system responses to this phenomenon, contributes to several offending-related trends observed among crossover children.

Correction to: Measuring the impact of the COVID­19 lockdown on crime in a medium­sized city in China.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s11292-021-09486-7.].

Domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic - Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Purpose: The aim of this review was to estimate the effect of COVID-19-related restrictions (i.e., stay at home orders, lockdown orders) on reported incidents of domestic violence. Methods: A systematic review of articles was conducted in various databases and a meta-analysis was also performed. The search was carried out based on conventional scientific standards that are outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) and studies needed to meet certain criteria. Results: Analyses were conducted with a random effects restricted maximum likelihood model. Eighteen empirical studies (and 37 estimates) that met the general inclusion criteria were used. Results showed that most study estimates were indicative of an increase in domestic violence post-lockdowns. The overall mean effect size was 0.66 (CI: 0.08-1.24). The effects were stronger when only US studies were considered. Conclusion: Incidents of domestic violence increased in response to stay-at-home/lockdown orders, a finding that is based on several studies from different cities, states, and several countries around the world.

Predicting Sexual Recidivism.

The current study focuses on adolescents with sex offense histories and examines sexual reoffending patterns within 2 years of a prior sex offense. We employed inductive statistical models using archival official records maintained by the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice (FDJJ), which provides social, offense, placement, and risk assessment history data for all youth referred for delinquent behavior. The predictive accuracy of the random forest models is tested using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, the area under the curve (AUC), and precision/recall plots. The strongest predictor of sexual recidivism was the number of prior felony and misdemeanor sex offenses. The AUC values range between 0.71 and 0.65, suggesting modest predictive accuracy of the models presented. These results parallel the existing literature on sexual recidivism and highlight the challenges associated with predicting sex offense recidivism. Furthermore, results inform risk assessment literature by testing various factors recorded by an official institution.

Changing self-control: Promising efforts and a way forward.

Researchers have long known that self-control, or impulse control, is important for a variety of life outcomes, including health, education, and behavior. In criminology, the most popular perspective on self-control argues that it is a multidimensional trait that is relatively stable after about age 8. Some work, however, has shown that in fact, self-control may not be as stable as originally thought. This article examines the evidence on interventions seeking to enhance self-control and subsequently to reduce delinquent or criminal behavior. The evidence is growing but still in need of development. Implications for future research and practice are discussed in the conclusion.

Manifesto for new directions in developmental science.

Although developmental science has always been evolving, these times of fast-paced and profound social and scientific changes easily lead to disorienting fragmentation rather than coherent scientific advances. What directions should developmental science pursue to meaningfully address real-world problems that impact human development throughout the lifespan? What conceptual or policy shifts are needed to steer the field in these directions? The present manifesto is proposed by a group of scholars from various disciplines and perspectives within developmental science to spark conversations and action plans in response to these questions. After highlighting four critical content domains that merit concentrated and often urgent research efforts, two issues regarding "how" we do developmental science and "what for" are outlined. This manifesto concludes with five proposals, calling for integrative, inclusive, transdisciplinary, transparent, and actionable developmental science. Specific recommendations, prospects, pitfalls, and challenges to reach this goal are discussed.

Psychosocial Maturation, Race, and Desistance from Crime.

Research on maturation and its relation to antisocial behavior has progressed appreciably in recent years. Psychosocial maturation is a relatively recent concept of development that scholarship has linked to risky behavior. Psychosocial maturation appears to be a promising explanation of the process of exiting criminal behavior, known as desistance from crime. However, to date, research has not examined whether psychosocial maturation is related to desistance in similar ways across race/ethnicity. Using the Pathways to Desistance Study which followed a mixed-race/ethnicity group of serious adolescent offenders for 7 years, this research tested growth in psychosocial maturation across race/ethnic groups. The sample (14.46% female, average age 15.97 at baseline) was composed of white (n = 250), black (n = 463), and Hispanic (n = 414) individuals. The results showed variation in trajectories of psychosocial maturation with blacks having higher initial levels but slower growth in maturation over time compared to whites. Psychosocial maturation was negatively related to crime across all racial/ethnic groups. Across all racial/ethnic groups, differences in the magnitude of the association between psychosocial maturation and desistance were small. Rather than needing distinct theories for specific groups, psychosocial maturation appears to be a general theoretical perspective for understanding desistance from crime across races/ethnicities. Policy formulation based on psychosocial maturation would, therefore, be applicable across racial/ethnic groups.

The linkage between mental health, delinquency, and trajectories of delinquency: Results from the Boricua Youth Study.

PURPOSE: To examine the longitudinal relationship between depression, delinquency, and trajectories of delinquency among Hispanic children and adolescents. METHODS: Propensity score matching is used to match depressed and non-depressed youth and a combination of group-based trajectory and multinomial logistic regression techniques are used. RESULTS: After adjusting for pre-existing differences between depressed and non-depressed youth, the causal relationship between depression and delinquency and the association between depression and trajectories of delinquency appears to be largely spurious. However, the effect of depression on predicting a high rate and increasing trajectory of delinquency is robust. CONCLUSIONS: Depression and high-rate offending are linked in a sample of Hispanic children and adolescents.

Does the Effect of Justice System Attitudes on Adolescent Crime Vary Based on Psychosocial Maturity?

Adolescents who view the justice system negatively are prone to commit crime. Simultaneously, youth who have difficulty regulating their behavior are likely to commit crime. Using a longitudinal sample of 1,216 male adolescents (ages 13-17) who had been arrested for the first time, were racially/ethnically diverse, and were drawn from three U.S. states, this study incorporated a developmental perspective into the procedural justice framework to examine whether psychosocial immaturity moderated the effect of justice system attitudes on youth crime. Attitudes toward the justice system were associated with reoffending among psychosocially mature youth, but not among psychosocially immature youth. This developmental perspective indicates that psychosocially immature youth who have difficulty regulating their behavior may be at risk of engaging in crime regardless of how they perceive the justice system.

Human Trafficking of Minors and Childhood Adversity in Florida.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the link between human trafficking of minors and childhood adversity. METHODS: We compared the prevalence of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and cumulative childhood adversity (ACE score) among a sample of 913 juvenile justice-involved boys and girls in Florida for whom the Florida child abuse hotline accepted human trafficking abuse reports between 2009 and 2015 with those of a matched sample. RESULTS: ACE composite scores were higher and 6 ACEs indicative of child maltreatment were more prevalent among youths who had human trafficking abuse reports. Sexual abuse was the strongest predictor of human trafficking: the odds of human trafficking was 2.52 times greater for girls who experienced sexual abuse, and there was a 8.21 times greater risk for boys who had histories of sexual abuse. CONCLUSIONS: Maltreated youths are more susceptible to exploitation in human trafficking. Sexual abuse in connection with high ACE scores may serve as a key predictor of exploitation in human trafficking for both boys and girls.

Dissecting the Complexities of the Relationship Between Police Officer-Civilian Race/Ethnicity Dyads and Less-Than-Lethal Use of Force.

OBJECTIVES: To examine how sublethal use-of-force patterns vary across officer-civilian race/ethnicity while accounting for officer-, civilian-, and situational-level factors. METHODS: We extracted cross-sectional data from 5630 use-of-force reports from the Dallas Police Department in 2014 and 2015. We categorized each officer-civilian interaction into race/ethnicity dyads. We used multilevel, mixed logistic regression models to evaluate the relationship between race/ethnicity dyads and the types of use of force. RESULTS: Forty-eight percent of use-of-force interactions occurred between a White officer and a non-White civilian (White-non-White). In bivariate models, the odds of hard-empty hand control and intermediate weapon use were significantly higher among White-Black dyads compared with White-White dyads. The bivariate odds of intermediate weapon use were also significantly higher among Black-Black, Hispanic-White, Black-Hispanic, and Hispanic-Black dyads compared with White-White dyads. However, after we controlled for individual and situational factors, the relationship between race/ethnicity dyad and hard-empty hand control was no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: Although we observed significant bivariate relationships between race/ethnicity dyads and use of force, these relationships largely dissipated after we controlled for other factors.

Systematic review of early risk factors for life-course-persistent, adolescence-limited, and late-onset offenders in prospective longitudinal studies.

This paper builds on our previous systematic review of prospective longitudinal studies and examines the early risk factors associated with life-course persistent offending (LCP), adolescence-limited (AL) and late-onset (LO) offending. Out of the 55 prospective longitudinal studies which theoretically could possess the relevant information, only four provided information about risk factors associated with the different offending types. An additional three provided data so that relevant analyses could be conducted. The results suggested that there was little evidence that specific early risk factors were associated with specific offending types. There was also limited evidence that specific risk factors predicted specific offending types when criminal career duration was included in the definitions of LCP, AL, and LO offending. However, LCP offenders tended to have a greater number of risk factors, and the magnitude of these was somewhat greater than for AL offenders, who in turn tended to have more risk factors (and of a greater magnitude) than LO offenders. LCP and AL offenders may differ more in degree (in the number and magnitude of risk factors) than in kind (in the specific risk factors that are predictive). Importantly, as the potential criminal career duration was increased in defining the offending types, those with longer careers tended to have more risk factors, but, LCP and AL offenders were not predicted by different risk factors. Much more research is needed on risk factors for offending types defined according to criminal career durations.

Racial/Ethnic Disproportionality in Psychiatric Diagnoses and Treatment in a Sample of Serious Juvenile Offenders.

Psychiatric disorder prevalence has been shown demonstrably higher among justice-involved adolescents than youth in the general population. Yet, among arrested juveniles, little is known regarding racial/ethnic differences in disorder prevalence, the role of trauma exposure in the diagnosis of behavioral disorders, or subsequent psychiatric treatment provided to adolescents with such diagnoses. The current study examines racial/ethnic disparity in psychiatric diagnoses and treatment of behavioral disorders associated with delinquency, controlling for traumatic experiences, behavioral indicators, and prior offending among serious juvenile offenders. Logistic regression is employed to explore the racial/ethnic disproportionality in behavioral disorder diagnoses and psychiatric treatment provision among 8763 males (57.7 % Black, 11.8 % Hispanic) and 1,347 females (53.7 % Black, 7.6 % Hispanic) admitted to long-term juvenile justice residential placements in Florida. The results indicate Black males are 40 % more likely, and Black females 54 % more likely to be diagnosed with conduct disorder than Whites, even upon considerations of trauma, behavioral indicators, and criminal offending. Black and Hispanic males are approximately 40 % less likely to be diagnosed with ADHD than White males, with no racial/ethnic differences for females. Importantly, Black males are 32 % less likely to receive psychiatric treatment than White males, with no differences between White and Hispanic males, or any female subgroups. Traumatic exposures increased the odds of oppositional defiant disorder and ADHD, but not conduct disorder for males, though adverse childhood experiences were unrelated to behavioral disorder diagnoses among females.

Risk and Outcomes: Are Adolescents Charged with Sex Offenses Different from Other Adolescent Offenders?

Juveniles who have committed sexual offenses are subject to specialized treatment and policies based on their assumed unique dangerousness, despite contradictory evidence. Limited information is available regarding risk factors and their relationships to outcomes in this population. The comparative frequency and predictive utility of empirically supported risk factors for general delinquency were examined using data from the Pathways to Desistance study. Adolescent males who committed sexual offenses (n = 127) were compared to adolescent males who committed non-sexual offenses (n = 1021). At the start of the study, the sample ranged in age from 14 to 18 (M = 16.00, SD = 1.12) and self-identified as primarily African American (44 %), Latino (29 %), or White (25 %). Outcomes were measured over 7 years and included general and sexual recidivism, involvement in school and work, and positive relationships with peers and adults. The results indicated a few small differences in the presence of risk factors and their relationship to outcomes, with many similarities. Juveniles who have committed sexual offenses had equivalent general recidivism but higher sexual recidivism, though this rate was low (7.87 %, or 10 of the 127 adolescents who had committed sexual offenses). New clinical and policy approaches may be needed given the similarities between groups.

Juvenile animal cruelty and firesetting behaviour.

BACKGROUND: There is a view that young people presenting with an animal cruelty and firesetting combination represent a uniquely risky group, but prior work has relied on samples with insufficient power. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the prevalence of the co-occurrence of animal cruelty and firesetting behaviour among young delinquents? What other features correlate with this? METHODS: We measured the prevalence of animal cruelty and firesetting among 292,649 juvenile offenders and used rare events logistic regression to examine demographic, criminal, mental health and family histories as correlates. RESULTS: The prevalence of animal cruelty was 0.59%, accounting for 1732 young people, and of firesetting 1.56% (n = 4553). The co-occurrence of these behaviours was rare: 0.17% (n = 498), but approximately twice that expected by chance based on the prevalence of each behaviour individually (0.59% × 1.56% = 0.009%). Rates were higher in males, older youths and Whites. Among historical variables, criminal history was the strongest correlate, followed by mental health problems, then familial and individual indicators. CONCLUSIONS: As only male gender and being a victim of sexual abuse increased the odds of evidencing both animal cruelty and firesetting behaviour substantially above the odds for each behaviour individually, there thus appears to be little that is unique to the co-occurrence. Our findings suggest that sensitivity to the occurrence of each is the best way forward, with rather familiar assessments and interventions offering some hope of reducing these seriously damaging behaviours. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.