Global impact and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination schedules: a comparative modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: To eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organization had recommended routine vaccination of adolescent girls with two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine before sexual initiation. However, many countries have yet to implement HPV vaccination because of financial or logistical barriers to delivering two doses outside the infant immunisation programme. METHODS: Using three independent HPV transmission models, we estimated the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose HPV vaccination, in 188 countries, under scenarios in which one dose of the vaccine gives either a shorter duration of full protection (20 or 30 years) or lifelong protection but lower vaccine efficacy (e.g. 80%) compared to two doses. We simulated routine vaccination with the 9-valent HPV vaccine in 10-year-old girls at 80% coverage for the years 2021-2120, with a 1-year catch-up campaign up to age 14 at 80% coverage in the first year of the programme. RESULTS: Over the years 2021-2120, one-dose vaccination at 80% coverage was projected to avert 115.2 million (range of medians: 85.1-130.4) and 146.8 million (114.1-161.6) cervical cancers assuming one dose of the vaccine confers 20 and 30 years of protection, respectively. Should one dose of the vaccine provide lifelong protection at 80% vaccine efficacy, 147.8 million (140.6-169.7) cervical cancer cases could be prevented. If protection wanes after 20 years, 65 to 889 additional girls would need to be vaccinated with the second dose to prevent one cervical cancer, depending on the epidemiological profiles of the country. Across all income groups, the threshold cost for the second dose was low: from 1.59 (0.14-3.82) USD in low-income countries to 44.83 (3.75-85.64) USD in high-income countries, assuming one dose confers 30-year protection. CONCLUSIONS: Results were consistent across the three independent models and suggest that one-dose vaccination has similar health benefits to a two-dose programme while simplifying vaccine delivery, reducing costs, and alleviating vaccine supply constraints. The second dose may become cost-effective if there is a shorter duration of protection from one dose, cheaper vaccine and vaccination delivery strategies, and high burden of cervical cancer.

What are the determinants of antiretroviral therapy adherence among stable people living with HIV? A cross-sectional study in Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: Understanding context-specific determinants of antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence is crucial for developing tailored interventions for improving health outcomes and achieving the UNAIDS' third 95% target. This cross-sectional study explores factors associated with ART adherence among stable people living with HIV on ART in Cambodia. METHODS: We used baseline survey data from a quasi-experimental study conducted in 2021. The participants were recruited from 20 ART clinics in nine provinces for face-to-face interviews. A structured questionnaire collected information on sociodemographic characteristics, ART adherence, perceived ART self-efficacy, mental health, quality of life, stigma, and discrimination. We conducted bivariate and multiple logistic regression analyses to identify factors associated with ART adherence. RESULTS: Out of the 4101 participants, 86.5% reported adhering to ART in the past two months. The adjusted odds of ART adherence were significantly higher among participants in older age groups than those aged 15-29, participants with elevated cholesterol than those without it, participants who exhibited strong self-efficacy in health responsibility to maintain life than those with poor self-efficacy in health responsibility, participants who scored < 3 on the stigma and discrimination scale than those who scored ≥ 3, participants who scored ≥ 42 on the mental component of the quality-of-life scale than those who scored < 42. The adjusted odds of ART adherence were significantly lower in participants who earned > 301 USD per month than those who earned ≤ 100 USD per month. CONCLUSION: The ART adherence rate among stable people living with HIV in this study was comparable to that of the general people living with HIV in Cambodia. The results suggest the need for innovative interventions to further reduce stigma and discrimination and strategies to improve the self-efficacy and mental health of people living with HIV to improve ART adherence.

Now or later: Health impacts of delaying single-dose HPV vaccine implementation in a high-burden setting.

We aimed to quantify the health impact of immediate introduction of a single-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program in a high-burden setting, as waiting until forthcoming trials are completed to implement single-dose HPV vaccination may result in health losses, particularly for cohorts who would age-out of vaccination eligibility. Two mathematical models fitted to a high-burden setting projected cervical cancer incidence rates associated with (a) immediate implementation of one-dose HPV vaccination vs (b) waiting 5 years for evidence from randomized trials to determine if one- or two-doses should be implemented. We conducted analyses assuming a single dose was either noninferior or inferior to two doses. The models projected that immediate implementation of a noninferior single-dose vaccine led to a 7.2% to 9.6% increase in cancers averted between 2021 to 2120, compared to waiting 5 years. Health benefits remained greater with immediate implementation despite an inferior single-dose efficacy (80%), but revaccination of one-dose recipients became more important assuming vaccine waning. Under most circumstances, immediate vaccination avoided health losses for those aging out of vaccine eligibility, leading to greater health benefits than waiting for more information in 5 years.

Changes in social contacts in England during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and March 2021 as measured by the CoMix survey: A repeated cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the United Kingdom government imposed public health policies in England to reduce social contacts in hopes of curbing virus transmission. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study to measure contact patterns weekly from March 2020 to March 2021 to estimate the impact of these policies, covering 3 national lockdowns interspersed by periods of less restrictive policies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The repeated cross-sectional survey data were collected using online surveys of representative samples of the UK population by age and gender. Survey participants were recruited by the online market research company Ipsos MORI through internet-based banner and social media ads and email campaigns. The participant data used for this analysis are restricted to those who reported living in England. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a (clustered) bootstrap and fitted a censored negative binomial model to estimate age-stratified contact matrices and estimate proportional changes to the basic reproduction number under controlled conditions using the change in contacts as a scaling factor. To put the findings in perspective, we discuss contact rates recorded throughout the year in terms of previously recorded rates from the POLYMOD study social contact study. The survey recorded 101,350 observations from 19,914 participants who reported 466,710 contacts over 53 weeks. We observed changes in social contact patterns in England over time and by participants' age, personal risk factors, and perception of risk. The mean reported contacts for adults 18 to 59 years old ranged between 2.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 2.60) contacts and 4.93 (95% CI 4.65 to 5.19) contacts during the study period. The mean contacts for school-age children (5 to 17 years old) ranged from 3.07 (95% CI 2.89 to 3.27) to 15.11 (95% CI 13.87 to 16.41). This demonstrates a sustained decrease in social contacts compared to a mean of 11.08 (95% CI 10.54 to 11.57) contacts per participant in all age groups combined as measured by the POLYMOD social contact study in 2005 to 2006. Contacts measured during periods of lockdowns were lower than in periods of eased social restrictions. The use of face coverings outside the home has remained high since the government mandated use in some settings in July 2020. The main limitations of this analysis are the potential for selection bias, as participants are recruited through internet-based campaigns, and recall bias, in which participants may under- or overreport the number of contacts they have made. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that recorded contacts reduced dramatically compared to prepandemic levels (as measured in the POLYMOD study), with changes in reported contacts correlated with government interventions throughout the pandemic. Despite easing of restrictions in the summer of 2020, the mean number of reported contacts only returned to about half of that observed prepandemic at its highest recorded level. The CoMix survey provides a unique repeated cross-sectional data set for a full year in England, from the first day of the first lockdown, for use in statistical analyses and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other diseases.

Projecting contact matrices in 177 geographical regions: An update and comparison with empirical data for the COVID-19 era.

Mathematical models have played a key role in understanding the spread of directly-transmissible infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), as well as the effectiveness of public health responses. As the risk of contracting directly-transmitted infections depends on who interacts with whom, mathematical models often use contact matrices to characterise the spread of infectious pathogens. These contact matrices are usually generated from diary-based contact surveys. However, the majority of places in the world do not have representative empirical contact studies, so synthetic contact matrices have been constructed using more widely available setting-specific survey data on household, school, classroom, and workplace composition combined with empirical data on contact patterns in Europe. In 2017, the largest set of synthetic contact matrices to date were published for 152 geographical locations. In this study, we update these matrices with the most recent data and extend our analysis to 177 geographical locations. Due to the observed geographic differences within countries, we also quantify contact patterns in rural and urban settings where data is available. Further, we compare both the 2017 and 2020 synthetic matrices to out-of-sample empirically-constructed contact matrices, and explore the effects of using both the empirical and synthetic contact matrices when modelling physical distancing interventions for the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that the synthetic contact matrices show qualitative similarities to the contact patterns in the empirically-constructed contact matrices. Models parameterised with the empirical and synthetic matrices generated similar findings with few differences observed in age groups where the empirical matrices have missing or aggregated age groups. This finding means that synthetic contact matrices may be used in modelling outbreaks in settings for which empirical studies have yet to be conducted.

A global assessment of the impact of school closure in reducing COVID-19 spread.

Prolonged school closure has been adopted worldwide to control COVID-19. Indeed, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization figures show that two-thirds of an academic year was lost on average worldwide due to COVID-19 school closures. Such pre-emptive implementation was predicated on the premise that school children are a core group for COVID-19 transmission. Using surveillance data from the Chinese cities of Shenzhen and Anqing together, we inferred that compared with the elderly aged 60 and over, children aged 18 and under and adults aged 19-59 were 75% and 32% less susceptible to infection, respectively. Using transmission models parametrized with synthetic contact matrices for 177 jurisdictions around the world, we showed that the lower susceptibility of school children substantially limited the effectiveness of school closure in reducing COVID-19 transmissibility. Our results, together with recent findings that clinical severity of COVID-19 in children is lower, suggest that school closure may not be ideal as a sustained, primary intervention for controlling COVID-19. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'.

Duration and determinants of delayed tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment in high-burden countries: a mixed-methods systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Thirty countries with the highest tuberculosis (TB) burden bear 87% of the world's TB cases. Delayed diagnosis and treatment are detrimental to TB prognosis and sustain TB transmission in the community, making TB elimination a great challenge, especially in these countries. Our objective was to elucidate the duration and determinants of delayed diagnosis and treatment of pulmonary TB in high TB-burden countries. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of quantitative and qualitative studies by searching four databases for literature published between 2008 and 2018 following PRISMA guidelines. We performed a narrative synthesis of the covariates significantly associated with patient, health system, treatment, and total delays. The pooled median duration of delay and effect sizes of covariates were estimated using random-effects meta-analyses. We identified key qualitative themes using thematic analysis. RESULTS: This review included 124 articles from 14 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LIC and LMIC) and five upper-middle-income countries (UMIC). The pooled median duration of delays (in days) were-patient delay (LIC/LMIC: 28 (95% CI 20-30); UMIC: 10 (95% CI 10-20), health system delay (LIC/LMIC: 14 (95% CI 2-28); UMIC: 4 (95% CI 2-4), and treatment delay (LIC/LMIC: 14 (95% CI 3-84); UMIC: 0 (95% CI 0-1). There was consistent evidence that being female and rural residence was associated with longer patient delay. Patient delay was also associated with other individual, interpersonal, and community risk factors such as poor TB knowledge, long chains of care-seeking through private/multiple providers, perceived stigma, financial insecurities, and poor access to healthcare. Organizational and policy factors mediated health system and treatment delays. These factors included the lack of resources and complex administrative procedures and systems at the health facilities. We identified data gaps in 11 high-burden countries. CONCLUSIONS: This review presented the duration of delays and detailed the determinants of delayed TB diagnosis and treatment in high-burden countries. The gaps identified could be addressed through tailored approaches, education, and at a higher level, through health system strengthening and provision of universal health coverage to reduce delays and improve access to TB diagnosis and care. PROSPERO registration: CRD42018107237.

From cervical cancer elimination to eradication of vaccine-type human papillomavirus: Feasibility, public health strategies and cost-effectiveness.

The Director-General of the World Health Organization has called for global action towards elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem. Cervical cancer is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV), an infectious agent with no non-human reservoir. One way to achieve this is through very high levels of vaccine coverage that could enable global eradication of vaccine-type HPV. Using the case study of India, we show that HPV eradication can meet all the Dahlem and Strüngmann criteria for feasibility of eradication. It can be achieved with 90% gender-neutral HPV vaccine coverage together with 95% coverage in high-risk groups such as female sex workers. Such a strategy would likely be cost-effective compared to no vaccination. Although it would be more costly in the short-term than achieving cervical cancer elimination alone, it would save costs in the long-term by removing or at least sharply reducing the need for preventive measures.

HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis, Condoms, or Both? Insights on Risk Compensation Through a Discrete Choice Experiment and Latent Class Analysis Among Men Who Have Sex With Men.

OBJECTIVES: We considered how decision making around human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) is made in the context of one's perceived risk of HIV acquisition and the availability of condoms. METHODS: We recruited 648 GBMSM aged 18 years old and residing in Singapore through Grindr. Participants were given information on PrEP and participated in a discrete choice experiment requiring them to choose between 2 baskets of PrEP attributes and compare the chosen "PrEP only" option to default options of "condoms only" or "PrEP with condoms." Generalized multinomial logit model was used to examine the scaling effect and preference heterogeneity. Latent class analysis was conducted to examine preference heterogeneity in the sample. RESULTS: Latent class analysis revealed 3 classes of GBMSM: PrEP conservatives (53.9%), moderates (31.1%), and liberals (14.9%). PrEP conservatives were more likely to report greater utility when using condoms only compared with PrEP only, as well as PrEP with condoms, compared with PrEP only, and more likely to report the lowest utility for PrEP as perceived HIV risk increased. PrEP liberals were more likely to report greatest utilities for PrEP only compared with condoms only, as well as PrEP only compared with PrEP with condoms. The utility for PrEP was not affected by perceived risk of HIV or sexually transmitted infections when risks were low. CONCLUSION: This study provides some evidence for risk compensation among a class of GBMSM who already perceived themselves to be good candidates for PrEP before the discrete choice experiment.

Community-based model for the delivery of antiretroviral therapy in Cambodia: a quasi-experimental study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Multi-month dispensing (MMD) is the mainstay mechanism for clinically stable people living with HIV in Cambodia to refill antiretroviral therapy (ART) every 3-6 months. However, less frequent ART dispensing through the community-based ART delivery (CAD) model could further reduce the clients' and health facilities' burden. While community-based services have been recognized as an integral component of HIV response in Cambodia, their role and effectiveness in ART delivery have yet to be systematically assessed. This study aims to evaluate the CAD model's effectiveness on the continuum of care and treatment outcomes for stable people living with HIV in Cambodia. METHODS: We will conduct this quasi-experimental study in 20 ART clinics across the capital city and nine provinces between May 2021 and April 2023. Study sites were purposively selected based on the availability of implementing partners, the number of people living with HIV each clinic serves, and the accessibility of the clinics. In the intervention arm, approximately 2000 stable people living with HIV will receive ART and services from the CAD model. Another 2000 stable people living with HIV in the control arm will receive MMD-a standard care model for stable people living with HIV. The primary outcomes will be retention in care, viral load suppression, and adherence to ART. The secondary endpoints will include health providers' work burden, the model's cost-effectiveness, quality of life, mental health, social support, stigma, and discrimination. We will compare the outcome indicators within each arm at baseline, midline, and endline using descriptive and inferential statistics. We will evaluate the differences between the intervention and control arms using the difference-in-differences method. We will perform economic evaluations to determine if the intervention is cost-effective. DISCUSSION: This study will build the evidence base for future implementation and scale-up of CAD model in Cambodia and other similar settings. Furthermore, it will strengthen engagements with community stakeholders and further improve community mobilization, a vital pillar of the Cambodian HIV response. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04766710 . Registered 23 February 2021, Version 1.

Biomarkers of Dietary Omega-6 Fatty Acids and Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Global dietary recommendations for and cardiovascular effects of linoleic acid, the major dietary omega-6 fatty acid, and its major metabolite, arachidonic acid, remain controversial. To address this uncertainty and inform international recommendations, we evaluated how in vivo circulating and tissue levels of linoleic acid (LA) and arachidonic acid (AA) relate to incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) across multiple international studies. METHODS: We performed harmonized, de novo, individual-level analyses in a global consortium of 30 prospective observational studies from 13 countries. Multivariable-adjusted associations of circulating and adipose tissue LA and AA biomarkers with incident total CVD and subtypes (coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular mortality) were investigated according to a prespecified analytic plan. Levels of LA and AA, measured as the percentage of total fatty acids, were evaluated linearly according to their interquintile range (ie, the range between the midpoint of the first and fifth quintiles), and categorically by quintiles. Study-specific results were pooled using inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored by age, sex, race, diabetes mellitus, statin use, aspirin use, omega-3 levels, and fatty acid desaturase 1 genotype (when available). RESULTS: In 30 prospective studies with medians of follow-up ranging 2.5 to 31.9 years, 15 198 incident cardiovascular events occurred among 68 659 participants. Higher levels of LA were significantly associated with lower risks of total CVD, cardiovascular mortality, and ischemic stroke, with hazard ratios per interquintile range of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.99), 0.78 (0.70-0.85), and 0.88 (0.79-0.98), respectively, and nonsignificantly with lower coronary heart disease risk (0.94; 0.88-1.00). Relationships were similar for LA evaluated across quintiles. AA levels were not associated with higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes; in a comparison of extreme quintiles, higher levels were associated with lower risk of total CVD (0.92; 0.86-0.99). No consistent heterogeneity by population subgroups was identified in the observed relationships. CONCLUSIONS: In pooled global analyses, higher in vivo circulating and tissue levels of LA and possibly AA were associated with lower risk of major cardiovascular events. These results support a favorable role for LA in CVD prevention.

Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK.

BACKGROUND: To mitigate and slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries have adopted unprecedented physical distancing policies, including the UK. We evaluate whether these measures might be sufficient to control the epidemic by estimating their impact on the reproduction number (R0, the average number of secondary cases generated per case). METHODS: We asked a representative sample of UK adults about their contact patterns on the previous day. The questionnaire was conducted online via email recruitment and documents the age and location of contacts and a measure of their intimacy (whether physical contact was made or not). In addition, we asked about adherence to different physical distancing measures. The first surveys were sent on Tuesday, 24 March, 1 day after a "lockdown" was implemented across the UK. We compared measured contact patterns during the "lockdown" to patterns of social contact made during a non-epidemic period. By comparing these, we estimated the change in reproduction number as a consequence of the physical distancing measures imposed. We used a meta-analysis of published estimates to inform our estimates of the reproduction number before interventions were put in place. RESULTS: We found a 74% reduction in the average daily number of contacts observed per participant (from 10.8 to 2.8). This would be sufficient to reduce R0 from 2.6 prior to lockdown to 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37-0.89) after the lockdown, based on all types of contact and 0.37 (95% CI = 0.22-0.53) for physical (skin to skin) contacts only. CONCLUSIONS: The physical distancing measures adopted by the UK public have substantially reduced contact levels and will likely lead to a substantial impact and a decline in cases in the coming weeks. However, this projected decline in incidence will not occur immediately as there are significant delays between infection, the onset of symptomatic disease, and hospitalisation, as well as further delays to these events being reported. Tracking behavioural change can give a more rapid assessment of the impact of physical distancing measures than routine epidemiological surveillance.

The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements.

BACKGROUND: Many low- and middle-income countries have implemented control measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it is not clear to what extent these measures explain the low numbers of recorded COVID-19 cases and deaths in Africa. One of the main aims of control measures is to reduce respiratory pathogen transmission through direct contact with others. In this study, we collect contact data from residents of informal settlements around Nairobi, Kenya, to assess if control measures have changed contact patterns, and estimate the impact of changes on the basic reproduction number (R0). METHODS: We conducted a social contact survey with 213 residents of five informal settlements around Nairobi in early May 2020, 4 weeks after the Kenyan government introduced enhanced physical distancing measures and a curfew between 7 pm and 5 am. Respondents were asked to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, alongside a questionnaire asking about the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined contact patterns by demographic factors, including socioeconomic status. We described the impact of COVID-19 and control measures on income and food security. We compared contact patterns during control measures to patterns from non-pandemic periods to estimate the change in R0. RESULTS: We estimate that control measures reduced physical contacts by 62% and non-physical contacts by either 63% or 67%, depending on the pre-COVID-19 comparison matrix used. Masks were worn by at least one person in 92% of contacts. Respondents in the poorest socioeconomic quintile reported 1.5 times more contacts than those in the richest. Eighty-six percent of respondents reported a total or partial loss of income due to COVID-19, and 74% reported eating less or skipping meals due to having too little money for food. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 control measures have had a large impact on direct contacts and therefore transmission, but have also caused considerable economic and food insecurity. Reductions in R0 are consistent with the comparatively low epidemic growth in Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries that implemented similar, early control measures. However, negative and inequitable impacts on economic and food security may mean control measures are not sustainable in the longer term.

The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: To contain the spread of COVID-19, a cordon sanitaire was put in place in Wuhan prior to the Lunar New Year, on 23 January 2020. We assess the efficacy of the cordon sanitaire to delay the introduction and onset of local transmission of COVID-19 in other major cities in mainland China. METHODS: We estimated the number of infected travellers from Wuhan to other major cities in mainland China from November 2019 to February 2020 using previously estimated COVID-19 prevalence in Wuhan and publicly available mobility data. We focused on Beijing, Chongqing, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen as four representative major cities to identify the potential independent contribution of the cordon sanitaire and holiday travel. To do this, we simulated outbreaks generated by infected arrivals in these destination cities using stochastic branching processes. We also modelled the effect of the cordon sanitaire in combination with reduced transmissibility scenarios to simulate the effect of local non-pharmaceutical interventions. RESULTS: We find that in the four cities, given the potentially high prevalence of COVID-19 in Wuhan between December 2019 and early January 2020, local transmission may have been seeded as early as 1-8 January 2020. By the time the cordon sanitaire was imposed, infections were likely in the thousands. The cordon sanitaire alone did not substantially affect the epidemic progression in these cities, although it may have had some effect in smaller cities. Reduced transmissibility resulted in a notable decrease in the incidence of infection in the four studied cities. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that sustained transmission was likely occurring several weeks prior to the implementation of the cordon sanitaire in four major cities of mainland China and that the observed decrease in incidence was likely attributable to other non-pharmaceutical, transmission-reducing interventions.

Estimating the size of key populations for HIV in Singapore using the network scale-up method.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a localised instrument and Bayesian statistical method to generate size estimates-adjusted for transmission error and barrier effects-of at-risk populations in Singapore. METHODS: We conducted indepth interviews and focus group to guide the development of the survey questionnaire. The questionnaire was administered between July and August 2017 in Singapore. Using the network scale-up method (NSUM), we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the number of individuals in four hidden populations at risk of HIV. The method accounted for both transmission error and barrier effects using social acceptance measures and demographics. RESULTS: The adjusted size estimate of the population of male clients of female sex workers was 72 000 (95% CI 51 000 to 100 000), of female sex workers 4200 (95% CI 1600 to 10 000), of men who have sex with men 210 000 (95% CI 140 000 to 300 000) and of intravenous drug users 11 000 (95% CI 6500 to 17 000). CONCLUSIONS: The NSUM with adjustment for attitudes and demographics allows national-level estimates of multiple priority populations to be determined from simple surveys of the general population, even in relatively conservative societies.

Prevalence and correlates of HIV infection among people who use drugs in Cambodia: a cross-sectional survey using respondent driven sampling method.

BACKGROUND: Most of studies on the relationship between drug use and HIV have focused largely on people who inject drugs. Non-injecting drug use is much more common than injecting drug use, and although it can also predispose people to HIV infection, it is not widely explored. We therefore conducted this study to explore the prevalence of HIV and identify risk factors for HIV infection among people who use non-injecting drugs (PWUD) in Cambodia. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2017. The Respondent Driven Sampling method was used to recruit the study participants who were interviewed face-to-face using a structured questionnaire. Blood samples were collected for HIV and syphilis testing. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors associated with HIV infection. RESULTS: In total, 1367 PWUD were included in this study, whose mean age was 28.0 (SD = 7.7) years. The majority (95.1%) of the participants used methamphetamine. The prevalence of HIV was 5.7, and 35.2% of the identified HIV-positive PWUD were not aware of their status prior to the survey. After adjustment for other covariates, HIV infection remained significantly associated with being in the age group of ≥35 (AOR = 2.34, 95% CI = 1.04-6.11), having lower level of formal education of ≤ 6 years (AOR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.04-5.15), living on the streets (AOR = 2.82, 95% CI = 1.10-7.23), perception that their HIV risk was higher as compared to that of the general population (AOR = 3.18, 95% CI = 1.27-8.62), having used injecting drugs in lifetime (AOR = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.36-4.56), and having cuts or sores around the genital area in the past 12 months (AOR = 3.42, 95% CI = 1.09-6.33). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of HIV among PWUD in this study was more than 10 times higher than the prevalence in the general adult population. The findings reveal a higher vulnerability to HIV infection among specific sub-populations of PWUD, such as those who are homeless, who may benefit from tailored interventions that respond to their specific needs. To enhance HIV case finding, stratification of PWUD to facilitate HIV risk profiling based on socio-economic profiles and drug injection history is recommended.

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.

Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which contact data such as POLYMOD are not yet available.

Equity impact of HPV vaccination on lifetime projections of cervical cancer burden among cohorts in 84 countries by global, regional, and income levels, 2010-22: a modelling study.

Background: While human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have been available since 2006, the coverage has varied among countries. Our aim is to analyse the equity impact of HPV vaccination on the lifetime projections of cervical cancer burden among vaccinated cohorts of 2010-22 in 84 countries. Methods: We used WHO and UNICEF estimates of national immunisation coverage for HPV vaccination in 84 countries during 2010-22. We used PRIME (Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics) to estimate the lifetime health impact of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer burden in terms of deaths, cases, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by vaccination in their respective countries. We generated concentration indices and curves to assess the equity impact of HPV vaccination across 84 countries. Findings: The health impact of HPV vaccination varied across the 84 countries and ranged from Switzerland to Tanzania at 2 to 34 deaths, 4 to 47 cases, and 40 to 735 DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated adolescent girls over the lifetime of the vaccinated cohorts of 2010-22. The concentration index for the distribution of average coverage during 2010-22 among the 84 countries ranked by vaccine impact was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.27-0.40) and highlights the wide inequities in HPV vaccination coverage. Interpretation: Our findings suggested that countries with a relatively higher cervical cancer burden and thereby a relatively higher need for HPV vaccination had relatively lower coverage during 2010-22. Further, there were significant inequities in HPV vaccination coverage within the Americas, Europe, and Western Pacific regions, and in high- and low-income countries with a pro-advantaged and regressive distribution favouring countries with lower vaccine impact. Funding: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic both relied and placed significant burdens on the experts involved from research and public health sectors. The sustained high pressure of a pandemic on responders, such as healthcare workers, can lead to lasting psychological impacts including acute stress disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, burnout, and moral injury, which can impact individual wellbeing and productivity. Methods: As members of the infectious disease modelling community, we convened a reflective workshop to understand the professional and personal impacts of response work on our community and to propose recommendations for future epidemic responses. The attendees represented a range of career stages, institutions, and disciplines. This piece was collectively produced by those present at the session based on our collective experiences. Results: Key issues we identified at the workshop were lack of institutional support, insecure contracts, unequal credit and recognition, and mental health impacts. Our recommendations include rewarding impactful work, fostering academia-public health collaboration, decreasing dependence on key individuals by developing teams, increasing transparency in decision-making, and implementing sustainable work practices. Conclusions: Despite limitations in representation, this workshop provided valuable insights into the UK COVID-19 modelling experience and guidance for future public health crises. Recognising and addressing the issues highlighted is crucial, in our view, for ensuring the effectiveness of epidemic response work in the future.

Impact of including boys in the national school-based human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Singapore: A modelling-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

Globally, gender-neutral Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes are gaining traction. Although cervical cancer remains the most prevalent, other HPV-related cancers are increasingly recognised as important, especially among men who have sex with men. We assessed if including adolescent boys in Singapore's school-based HPV vaccination programme is cost-effective from the healthcare perspective. We adapted a World Health Organization-supported model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics, and modelled the cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) associated with vaccinating 13-year-olds with the HPV vaccine. Cancer incidence and mortality rates were obtained from local sources and adjusted based on the expected direct and indirect vaccine protection for various population subgroups at an 80 % vaccine coverage. Moving to a gender-neutral vaccination programme with a bivalent or nonavalent vaccine could avert 30 (95 % uncertainty interval [UI]: 20-44) and 34 (95 % UI: 24-49) HPV-related cancers per birth cohort, respectively. At a 3 % discount rate, a gender-neutral vaccination programme is not cost-effective. However, with a 1.5 % discount rate, which puts more value on long-term health gains from vaccination, moving to a gender-neutral vaccination programme with the bivalent vaccine is likely cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of SGD$19 007 (95 % UI: 10 164-30 633) per QALY gained. The findings suggest the need to engage experts to examine, in detail, the cost-effectiveness of gender-neutral vaccination programmes in Singapore. Issues of drug licensing, feasibility, gender equity, global vaccine supplies, and the global trend towards disease elimination/eradication should also be considered. This model provides a simplified method for resource-strapped countries to gain a preliminary estimate of the cost-effectiveness of a gender-neutral HPV vaccination programme before investing resources for further research.