Hepatitis D double reflex testing of all hepatitis B carriers in low-HBV- and high-HBV/HDV-prevalence countries.

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection occurs as a coinfection with hepatitis B and increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, and mortality compared to hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. Reliable estimates of the prevalence of HDV infection and disease burden are essential to formulate strategies to find coinfected individuals more effectively and efficiently. The global prevalence of HBV infections was estimated to be 262,240,000 in 2021. Only 1,994,000 of the HBV infections were newly diagnosed in 2021, with more than half of the new diagnoses made in China. Our initial estimates indicated a much lower prevalence of HDV antibody (anti-HDV) and HDV RNA positivity than previously reported in published studies. Accurate estimates of HDV prevalence are needed. The most effective method to generate estimates of the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity and to find undiagnosed individuals at the national level is to implement double reflex testing. This requires anti-HDV testing of all hepatitis B surface antigen-positive individuals and HDV RNA testing of all anti-HDV-positive individuals. This strategy is manageable for healthcare systems since the number of newly diagnosed HBV cases is low. At the global level, a comprehensive HDV screening strategy would require only 1,994,000 HDV antibody tests and less than 89,000 HDV PCR tests. Double reflex testing is the preferred strategy in countries with a low prevalence of HBV and those with a high prevalence of both HBV and HDV. For example, in the European Union and North America only 35,000 and 22,000 cases, respectively, will require anti-HDV testing annually.

Cost-effectiveness of treating all hepatitis B-positive individuals in the United States.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a leading cause of liver disease and related mortality globally. However, most of the infected individuals in the United States remain undiagnosed and untreated. There is a need to understand more completely the economic and disease burden impact of removing treatment restrictions and increasing diagnosis and treatment. The PRoGReSs model, a dynamic HBV model that tracks the infected population by year, disease stage, and gender, was used to quantify the disease and economic burden of chronic HBV infection in the United States from 2020 to 2050 based on four scenarios: a status quo (base) scenario and three treat-all scenarios, in which screening, diagnosis, and treatment were maximized at different annual treatment price levels of $5382, $2000 and $750. Compared to the base scenario, the treat-all scenarios would avert 71,100 acute and 11,100 chronic incident cases of HBV, and 169,000 liver-related deaths from 2020 to 2050. At an annual treatment cost of $2000, treating all HBV infections would be highly cost-effective, and at $750 would be cost saving and would achieve a positive return on investment before 2050. Maximizing the diagnosed and treated HBV population in the United States would avert a significant number of cases of advanced liver disease and related mortality. Such interventions can also be cost-effective compared to the status quo strategy, and cost saving at a treatment price threshold of $750 annually, above the current lowest annual treatment cost of $362.

Cost-effectiveness and economic investment to eliminate chronic hepatitis C in Mexico.

In July 2020, the Mexican Government initiated the National Program for Elimination of Hepatitis C (HCV) under a procurement agreement, securing universal, free access to HCV screening, diagnosis and treatment for 2020-2022. This analysis quantifies the clinical and economic burden of HCV (MXN) under a continuation (or end) to the agreement. A modelling and Delphi approach was used to evaluate the disease burden (2020-2030) and economic impact (2020-2035) of the Historical Base compared to Elimination, assuming the agreement continues (Elimination-Agreement to 2035) or terminates (Elimination-Agreement to 2022). We estimated cumulative costs and the per-patient treatment expenditure needed to achieve net-zero cost (the difference in cumulative costs between the scenario and the base). Elimination is defined as a 90% reduction in new infections, 90% diagnosis coverage, 80% treatment coverage and 65% reduction in mortality by 2030. A viraemic prevalence of 0.55% (0.50-0.60) was estimated on 1st January 2021, corresponding to 745,000 (95% CI 677,000-812,000) viraemic infections in Mexico. The Elimination-Agreement to 2035 would achieve net-zero cost by 2023 and accrue 31.2 billion in cumulative costs. Cumulative costs under the Elimination-Agreement to 2022 are estimated at 74.2 billion. Under Elimination-Agreement to 2022, the per-patient treatment price must decrease to 11,000 to achieve net-zero cost by 2035. The Mexican Government could extend the agreement through 2035 or reduce the cost of HCV treatment to 11,000 to achieve HCV elimination at net-zero cost.

Hepatitis C prevalence and elimination planning in Pakistan, a bottom-up approach accounting for provincial variation.

In Pakistan, substantial changes to hepatitis C virus (HCV) programming and treatment have occurred since the 2008 nationwide serosurvey estimated a 4.8% anti-HCV prevalence. In the absence of an updated national study, this analysis uses provincial data to estimate a national prevalence and the interventions needed to achieve elimination. Using a Delphi process, epidemiologic HCV data for the four provinces of Pakistan (accounting for 97% of the population) were reviewed with 21 subject-matter experts in Pakistan. Province-level estimates were inputted into a mathematical model to estimate the national HCV disease burden in the absence of intervention (Base), and if the World Health Organization (WHO) elimination targets are achieved by 2030 (80% reduction in new infections, 90% diagnosis coverage, 80% treatment coverage, and 65% reduction in mortality: WHO Elimination). An estimated 9,746,000 (7,573,000-10,006,000) Pakistanis were living with viraemic HCV as of January 1, 2021; a viraemic prevalence of 4.3% (3.3-4.4). WHO Elimination would require an annual average of 18.8 million screens, 1.1 million treatments, and 46,700 new infections prevented anually between 2022 and 2030. Elimination would reduce total infections by 7,045,000, save 152,000 lives and prevent 104,000 incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma from 2015 to 2030. Blood surveys, programmatic data, and expert panel input uncovered more HCV infections and lower treatment numbers in the provinces than estimated using national extrapolations, demonstrating the benefits of a bottom-up approach. Screening and treatment must increase 20 times and 5 times, respectively, to curb the HCV epidemic in Pakistan and achieve elimination by 2030.

Impacts of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme for viral hepatitis C: A cost-effectiveness model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Egypt used to have one of the highest prevalences of HCV infection worldwide. The Egyptian Ministry of Health launched a national campaign for the detection and management of HCV to reduce its burden. This study aims to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the costs and benefits of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme. METHODS: A disease burden and economic impact model was populated with the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme data to assess direct medical costs, health effects measured in disability-adjusted life years and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The scenario was compared to a historical base case, which assumed that no programme had been conducted. RESULTS: Total number of viremic cases is expected to decrease in 2030 by 86% under the national screening and treatment programme, versus by 41% under the historical base case. Annual discounted direct medical costs are expected to decrease from $178 million in 2018 to $81 million by 2030 under the historical base case, while annual direct medical costs are estimated to have peaked in 2019 at $312 million before declining to $55 million by 2030 under the national screening and treatment programme. Under the programme, annual disability-adjusted life years are expected to decline to 127 647 by 2030, leading to 883 333 cumulative disability-adjusted life years averted over 2018-2030. CONCLUSIONS: The national screening and treatment programme is highly cost-effective by the year 2021, cost-saving by 2029 and expected to save about $35 million in direct costs and $4705 million in indirect costs by 2030.

Viral hepatitis elimination challenges in low- and middle-income countries-Uzbekistan Hepatitis Elimination Program (UHEP).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic infection with hepatitis B and C viruses (HBV & HCV) is a major contributor to liver disease and liver-related mortality in Uzbekistan. There is a need to demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale simplified testing and treatment to implement a national viral hepatitis elimination program. METHODS: Thirteen polyclinics were utilized to screen, conduct follow-up biochemical measures and treat chronic HBV and HCV infection in the general adult population. Task shifting and motivational interviewing training allowed nurses to provide rapid screening and general practitioners (GPs) to treat individuals on-site. An electronic medical system tracked individuals through the cascade of care. RESULTS: The use of rapid tests allowed for screening of 60 769 people for HCV and HBV over 6 months and permitted outdoor testing during the COVID-19 pandemic along with COVID testing. 13%-14% of individuals were lost to follow-up after the rapid test, and another 62%-66% failed to come in for their consultation. One stop testing and treatment did not result in a statistically increase in retention and lack of patient awareness of viral hepatitis was identified as a key factor. Despite training, there were large differences between GPs and patients initiating treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The current study demonstrated the feasibility of large-scale general population screening and task shifting in low- and middle-income countries. However, such programs need to be proceeded by awareness campaign to minimize loss to follow up. In addition, multiple trainings are needed for GPs to bolster their skills to talk to patients about treatment.

Securing wider EU commitment to the elimination of hepatitis C virus.

In 2016, the Hepatitis B and C Public Policy Association (HepBCPPA), gathered all the main stakeholders in the field of hepatitis C virus (HCV) to launch the now landmark HCV Elimination Manifesto, calling for the elimination of HCV in the EU by 2030. Since then, many European countries have made progress towards HCV elimination. Multiple programmes-from the municipality level to the EU level-were launched, resulting in an overall decrease in viremic HCV infections and liver-related mortality. However, as of 2021, most countries are not on track to reach the 2030 HCV elimination targets set by the WHO. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a decrease in HCV diagnoses and fewer direct-acting antiviral treatment initiations in 2020. Diagnostic and therapeutic tools to easily diagnose and treat chronic HCV infection are now well established. Treating all patients with chronic HCV infection is more cost-saving than treating and caring for patients with liver-related complications, decompensated cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. It is more important than ever to reinforce and scale-up action towards HCV elimination. Yet, efforts urgently need the dedicated commitment of policymakers at all governmental and policy levels. Therefore, the third EU Policy Summit, held in March 2021, featured EU parliamentarians and other key decision makers to promote dialogue and take strides towards securing wider EU commitment to advance and achieve HCV elimination by 2030. We have summarized the key action points and reported the 'Call-to-Action' statement supported by all the major relevant European associations in the field.

The global NAFLD policy review and preparedness index: Are countries ready to address this silent public health challenge?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a highly prevalent, yet largely underappreciated liver condition which is closely associated with obesity and metabolic disease. Despite affecting an estimated 1 in 4 adults globally, NAFLD is largely absent on national and global health agendas. METHODS: We collected data from 102 countries, accounting for 86% of the world population, on NAFLD policies, guidelines, civil society engagement, clinical management, and epidemiologic data. A preparedness index was developed by coding questions into 6 domains (policies, guidelines, civil awareness, epidemiology and data, NAFLD detection, and NAFLD care management) and categorising the responses as high, medium, and low; a multiple correspondence analysis was then applied. RESULTS: The highest scoring countries were India (42.7) and the United Kingdom (40.0), with 32 countries (31%) scoring zero out of 100. For 5 of the domains a minority of countries were categorised as high-level while the majority were categorised as low-level. No country had a national or sub-national strategy for NAFLD and <2% of the different strategies for related conditions included any mention of NAFLD. National NAFLD clinical guidelines were present in only 32 countries. CONCLUSIONS: Although NAFLD is a pressing public health problem, no country was found to be well prepared to address it. There is a pressing need for strategies to address NAFLD at national and global levels. LAY SUMMARY: Around a third of the countries scored a zero on the NAFLD policy preparedness index, with no country scoring over 50/100. Although NAFLD is a pressing public health problem, a comprehensive public health response is lacking in all 102 countries. Policies and strategies to address NAFLD at the national and global levels are urgently needed.

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Epidemiology, Natural History, and Outcomes of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis: A Systematic Review of Population-based Studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of this study was to quantify the global epidemiology of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), alongside the incidence of liver transplantation, cancer, and death, through robust systematic review of population-based data. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE up to and including June 30, 2020 to identify population-based studies reporting the incidence and/or prevalence of PSC. Studies that did not report original data, or of exclusively pediatric-onset disease (diagnosis age <16 years) or exclusively PSC-associated with inflammatory bowel disease were excluded. RESULTS: Of 4922 published studies, 17 fulfilled inclusion criteria; 16 documenting incidence and 14 prevalence. The highest reported incidence of PSC was reported in Northern Europe (Finland, 1.58 and Norway, 1.3 per-100,000 population, respectively) and North America (Minnesota, 1.47); with the lowest being observed across the Mediterranean Basin (Italy, 0.1). Prevalence ranged from 31.7 in Finland and 23.99 in Minnesota, to 1.33 in Singapore and 0.0 in Alaska. Of studies reporting temporal occurrence, an increase in disease incidence was observed across North America and Northern Europe (4 studies), alongside an increase in prevalence over time (4 studies). The incidence and risks for clinical outcomes were presented by 9 of the included studies. Median transplant-free survival ranged from 9.7 (United States) to 20.6 years (Netherlands), with standardized mortality ratios of 2.5 and 4.2 compared with the control population. The standardized incidence of cholangiocarcinoma ranged from 235 (Finland) to 398 (Netherlands). CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of PSC incidence and prevalence vary, with most studies conducted in North America and Western Europe; the latter showing a steady increase in disease occurrence over time. Further research is needed to understand changes in disease epidemiology, including etiological drivers, the implications of rising case burden on health care policy, and better appreciation of PSC in the developing world.

Updated epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infections and implications for hepatitis C virus elimination in Germany.

In 2014, an analysis was conducted to evaluate the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology and disease burden in Germany. Since then, there have been considerable developments in HCV management such as the implementation of direct acting antivirals. The aim of this analysis was to assess the recent data available for Germany, establish an updated 2020 HCV prevalence and cascade of care and evaluate the impact of what-if scenarios on the future burden of disease using modelling analysis. A dynamic Markov model was used to forecast the HCV disease burden in Germany. Model inputs were retrieved through literature review, unpublished sources and expert input. Next, three "what-if" scenarios were developed to evaluate the status quo, COVID-19 pandemic, and steps needed to achieve the WHO targets for elimination. At the beginning of 2020, there were 189,000 (95% UI: 76,700-295,000) viremic infections in Germany, a decline of more than 85,000 viremic infections since 2012. Annual treatment starts went down since 2015. Compared with 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a further 11% decline in 2020. If this continues for two years, it could result in 110 excess HCC cases and 200 excess liver related deaths by 2030. To achieve the WHO targets, 81,200 people need to be diagnosed, with 118,600 initiated on treatment by 2030. This could also avert 1,020 deaths and 720 HCC cases between 2021 and 2030. Germany has made strides towards HCV elimination, but more efforts are needed to achieve the WHO targets by 2030.

The Payer License Agreement, or "Netflix model," for hepatitis C virus therapies enables universal treatment access, lowers costs and incentivizes innovation and competition.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: High unit prices of treatments limit access. For epidemics like that of hepatitis C virus (HCV), reduced treatment access increases prevalence and incidence, making the infectious disease increasingly difficult to manage. The objective of the current study was to construct and test an alternative pricing model, the Payer License Agreement (PLA), and determine whether it could improve outcomes, cut costs and incentivize innovation versus the current unit-based pricing model. METHODS: We built and used computational models of hepatitis C disease progression, treatment, and pricing in historical and future scenarios and quantitatively analyzed their economic and epidemiological impact in three high-income countries. RESULTS: This study had three key results regarding HCV treatment. First, if the PLA model had been implemented when interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) combinations launched, the number of patients treated and cured would have more than doubled in the first three years, while the liver-related deaths (LRDs) would have decreased by around 40%. Second, if the PLA model had been implemented beginning in 2018, the year that several Netflix-like payment models were under implementation, the number of treated and cured patients would nearly double, and the LRDs would decline by more than 55%. Third, implementing the PLA model would result in a decline in total payer costs of more than 25%, with an increase to pharmaceutical manufacturer revenues of 10%. These results were true across the three healthcare landscapes studied, the USA, the UK and Italy, and were robust against variations to critical model parameters through sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These results suggest that implementation of the PLA model in high-income countries across a variety of health system contexts would improve patient outcomes at lower payer cost with more stable revenue for pharmaceutical manufacturers. Health policy-makers in high-income countries should consider the PLA model for application to more cost-effective management of HCV, and explore its application for other infectious diseases with curative therapies available now or soon.

HCV disease burden and population segments in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Switzerland has made strides towards hepatitis C virus elimination, but as of 2019, elimination was not guaranteed. However, political interest in viral hepatitis has been increasing. We sought to develop a better understanding of Switzerland's progress towards HCV elimination and the profile of remaining HCV-RNA-positive patients. METHODS: A previously described Markov model was updated with recent diagnosis and treatment data and run to generate new forecasts for HCV disease burden. Two scenarios were developed to evaluate HCV morbidity and mortality under the status quo and a scenario that achieves the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy Elimination targets. Next, an analysis was conducted to identify population segments bearing a high burden of disease, where future elimination efforts could be directed. RESULTS: At the beginning of 2020, an estimated 32 100 viremic infections remained in Switzerland (0.37% viremic prevalence). Adult (≥18 years of age) permanent residents born abroad represented the largest subpopulation, accounting for 56% of HCV infections. Thirteen countries accounted for ≥60% of viremic infections amongst permanent residents born abroad, with most people currently residing in Zurich, Vaud, Geneva, Bern, Aargau and Ticino. Amongst Swiss-born HCV-RNA-positive persons, two-thirds had a history of IDU, corresponding to 33% of total infections. CONCLUSIONS: In Switzerland, extra efforts for diagnosis and linkage to care are warranted in foreign-born populations and people with a history of drug use. Population-level measures (eg increasing the number of providers, increase screening) can identify patients who may have otherwise fallen through the gaps or avoided care because of stigma.

Progress towards achieving viral hepatitis B and C elimination in the Asia and Pacific region: Results from modelling and global reporting.

In 2016, Asia and Pacific countries endorsed action plans for reaching viral hepatitis elimination targets set in the Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) for Viral Hepatitis 2016-2021. We examine the region's progress by modelling disease burden and constructing the cascade of care. Between 2015 and 2020, chronic HBV prevalence declined from 4.69% to 4.30%, and HCV prevalence declined from 0.64% to 0.58%. The region achieved the 2020 target of 30% incidence reduction for HBV, whereas HCV incidence declined by 6%. Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence for HBV and HCV increased by 9% and 7%, respectively. Liver-related deaths from HBV rose by 8%, and mortality attributable to HCV plateaued. Large testing and treatment gaps remained in 2019: only 13% of chronic HBV infections were diagnosed and 25% treated; 21% of chronic HCV infection were diagnosed and 11% treated. Viral hepatitis must become national priority with adequate funding to reach elimination goals by 2030.

Ten years countdown to hepatitis C elimination in Belgium: a mathematical modeling approach.

BACKGROUND: Chronic infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains a worldwide health problem. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) has set elimination targets by 2030. This study aims to examine the position of Belgium in meeting the WHO's targets by 2030. METHODS: A Markov disease progression model, constructed in Microsoft Excel, was utilized to quantify the size of the HCV-infected population, by the liver disease stages, from 2015 to 2030. Two scenarios were developed to (1) forecast the disease burden in Belgium under the 2019 Base and (2) see what is needed to achieve the WHO targets. RESULTS: It was estimated that the number of HCV RNA-positive individuals in Belgium in 2015 was 18,800. To achieve the WHO goals, Belgium needs to treat at least 1200 patients per year. This will only be feasible if the number of screening tests increases. CONCLUSIONS: Belgium is on target to reach the WHO targets by 2030 but will have to make sustained efforts. However, eradicating HCV requires policy changes to significantly increase prevention, screening, and treatment, alongside public health promotion, to raise awareness among high-risk populations and health care providers.

Impact of COVID-19 on global HCV elimination efforts.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed a significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in HCV liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination programs. METHODS: Previously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or 'no delay' scenario and a '1-year delay' scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis, and treatment) in the year 2020. Annual country-level model outcomes were extracted, and weighted averages were used to calculate regional (WHO and World Bank Income Group) and global estimates from 2020 to 2030. The incremental annual change in outcomes was calculated by subtracting the 'no-delay' estimates from the '1-year delay' estimates. RESULTS: The '1-year delay' scenario resulted in 44,800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 43,800-49,300) excess hepatocellular carcinoma cases and 72,300 (95% UI: 70,600-79,400) excess liver-related deaths, relative to the 'no-delay' scenario globally, from 2020 to 2030. Most missed treatments would be in lower-middle income countries, whereas most excess hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related deaths would be among high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the direct morbidity and mortality associated with exposure and infection. To mitigate the impact on viral hepatitis programming and reduce excess mortality from delayed treatment, policy makers should prioritize hepatitis programs as soon as it becomes safe to do so. LAY SUMMARY: COVID-19 has resulted in many hepatitis elimination programs slowing or stopping altogether. A 1-year delay in hepatitis diagnosis and treatment could result in an additional 44,800 liver cancers and 72,300 deaths from HCV globally by 2030. Countries have committed to hepatitis elimination by 2030, so attention should shift back to hepatitis programming as soon as it becomes appropriate to do so.

Progress towards hepatitis C virus elimination in high-income countries: An updated analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Elimination of HCV by 2030, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), is attainable with the availability of highly efficacious therapies. This study reports progress made in the timing of HCV elimination in 45 high-income countries between 2017 and 2019. METHODS: Disease progression models of HCV infection for each country were updated with latest data on chronic HCV prevalence, and annual diagnosis and treatment levels, assumed to remain constant in the future. Modelled outcomes were analysed to determine the year in which each country would meet the WHO 2030 elimination targets. RESULTS: Of the 45 countries studied, 11 (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom) are on track to meet WHO's elimination targets by 2030; five (Austria, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, and South Korea) by 2040; and two (Saudi Arabia and Taiwan) by 2050. The remaining 27 countries are not expected to achieve elimination before 2050. Compared to progress in 2017, South Korea is no longer on track to eliminate HCV by 2030, three (Canada, Germany, and Sweden) are now on track, and most countries (30) saw no change. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming high-income countries will maintain current levels of diagnosis and treatment, only 24% are on track to eliminate HCV by 2030, and 60% are off track by at least 20 years. If current levels of diagnosis and treatment continue falling, achieving WHO's 2030 targets will be more challenging. With less than ten years remaining, screening and treatment expansion is crucial to meet WHO's HCV elimination targets.

Hepatitis C elimination in Sweden: Progress, challenges and opportunities for growth in the time of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In 2014, the burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Sweden was evaluated, to establish a baseline and inform public health interventions. Considering the changing landscape of HCV treatment, prevention, and care, and in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, this analysis seeks to evaluate Sweden's progress towards the World Health Organization (WHO) elimination targets and identify remaining barriers. METHODS: The data used for modelling HCV transmission and disease burden in Sweden were obtained through literature review, unpublished sources and expert input. A dynamic Markov model was employed to forecast population sizes and incidence of HCV through 2030. Two scenarios ('2019 Base' and 'WHO Targets') were developed to evaluate Sweden's progress towards HCV elimination. RESULTS: At the beginning of 2019, there were 29 700 (95% uncertainty interval: 19 300-33 700) viremic infections in Sweden. Under the base scenario, Sweden would achieve and exceed the WHO targets for diagnosis, treatment and liver-related death. However, new infections would decrease by less than 10%, relative to 2015. Achieving all WHO targets by 2030 would require (i) expanding harm reduction programmes to reach more than 90% of people who inject drugs (PWID) and (ii) treating 90% of HCV + PWID engaged in harm reduction programmes and ≥7% of PWID not involved in harm reduction programmes, annually by 2025. CONCLUSIONS: It is of utmost importance that Sweden, and all countries, find sustainability in HCV programmes by broadening the setting and base of providers to provide stability and continuity of care during turbulent times.

Global timing of hepatitis C virus elimination in high-income countries.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Introduction of highly efficacious pan-genotypic therapies for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has made the elimination of the disease an attainable goal. This study assessed progress made in 45 high-income countries towards meeting the World Health Organization's targets for HCV elimination by 2030. METHODS: A Markov model developed to forecast annual HCV-infected population was populated with demographic and epidemiological inputs, with historical incidence calibrated to reported prevalence of chronic HCV for each country. Future incidence was assumed to be a linear function of overall prevalence (or prevalence of minimal fibrosis in countries with treatment restrictions). 2017 levels of diagnosis and treatment were assumed constant in the future. The analysis estimated the year countries would meet HCV elimination targets for 80% reduction in incidence, 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, 90% diagnosis coverage and 80% treatment among the treatment-eligible population. RESULTS: Of the 45 countries analyzed, nine (Australia, France, Iceland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) are on track towards meeting the HCV elimination targets by 2030. While Austria, Germany and Malta could also reach the targets with expanded screening efforts, 30 countries are not projected to eliminate HCV before 2050. Incidence was the most difficult target to achieve, followed by liver-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Even with introduction of curative therapies, 80% of high-income countries are not on track to meet HCV elimination targets by 2030, and 67% are off track by at least 20 years. Immediate action to improve HCV screening and treatment is needed globally to make HCV elimination attainable.

Optimization of hepatitis C virus screening strategies by birth cohort in Italy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cost-effective screening strategies are needed to make hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination a reality. We determined if birth cohort screening is cost-effective in Italy. METHODS: A model was developed to quantify screening and healthcare costs associated with HCV. The model-estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV was used to calculate the antibody screens needed annually, with a €25 000 cost-effectiveness threshold. Outcomes were assessed under the status quo and a scenario that met the World Health Organization's targets for elimination of HCV. The elimination scenario was assessed under five screening strategies. RESULTS: A graduated birth cohort screening strategy (graduated screening 1: 1968-1987 birth cohorts, then expanding to 1948-1967 cohorts) was the least costly. This strategy would gain approximately 144 000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 2031 and result in an 89.3% reduction in HCV cases, compared to an 89.6%, 89.0%, 89.7% and 88.7% reduction for inversed graduated screening, 1948-77 birth cohort, 1958-77 birth cohort and universal screening, respectively. Graduated screening 1 yielded the lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €3552 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: In Italy, a graduated screening scenario is the most cost-effective strategy. Other countries could consider a similar birth cohort approach when developing HCV screening strategies.