Equity trends for the UHC service coverage sub-index for reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health in Pakistan: evidence from demographic health surveys.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan, the world's sixth most populous country and the second largest in South Asia, is facing challenges related to reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) that are exacerbated by various inequities. RMNCH coverage indicators such as antenatal care (ANC) and deliveries at health facilities have been improving over time, and the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is gradually declining but not at the desired rates. Analysing and documenting inequities with reference to key characteristics are useful to unmask the disparities and to amicably implement targeted equity-oriented interventions. METHODS: Pakistan Demographic Health Survey (PDHS) based UHC service coverage tracer indicators were derived for the RMNCH domain at the national and subnational levels for the two rounds of the PDHS in 2012 and 2017. These derivations were subgrouped into wealth quintiles, place of residence, education and mothers' age. Dumbbell charts were created to show the trends and quintile-specific coverage. The UHC service coverage sub-index for RMNCH was constructed to measure the absolute and relative parity indices, such as high to low absolute difference and high to low ratios, to quantify health inequities. The population attributable risk was computed to determine the overall population health improvement that is possible if all regions have the same level of health services as the reference point (national level) across the equity domains. RESULTS: The results indicate an overall improvement in coverage across all indicators over time, but with a higher concentration of data points towards higher coverage among the wealthiest groups, although the poorest quintile continues to have low coverage in all regions. The UHC service coverage sub-index on RMNCH shows that Pakistan has improved from 45 to 63 overall, while Punjab improved from 50 to 59 and Sindh from 43 to 55. The highest improvement is evident in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, which has increased from 31 in 2012 to 51 in 2017. All regions made slow progress in narrowing the gap between the poorest and wealthiest groups, with particularly noteworthy improvements in KP and Sindh, as indicated by the parity ratio. The RMNCH service coverage sub-index gap was the greatest among women aged 15-19 years, those who belonged to the poorest wealth quintile, had no education, and resided in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Analysing existing data sources from an equity lens supports evidence-based policies, programs and practices with a focus on disadvantaged subgroups.

Prevalence and factors associated with HIV epidemic among female sex workers in Pakistan: results of the fifth round of integrated biological and behavioural surveillance.

OBJECTIVES: We examined data collected as part of the fifth round of integrated biological and behavioural surveillance to determine the prevalence and factors associated with HIV infection among female sex workers (FSWs) in Pakistan. METHODS: FSWs were defined as 'all females, age 13 years and above, who receive money or goods in exchange for sexual services, regardless of the site of operation'. Data were collected between October 2016 and January 2017 in 18 cities using multistage sampling techniques to randomly select FSWs from spots facilitated by peers. Behavioural data were collected by interviewers using structured questionnaires, which was followed by obtaining finger prick blood samples tested for HIV using two rapid tests. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was done to assess independent associations of potential correlates using HIV status as dependent variable. RESULTS: We invited 5728 FSWs to participate, of which 68 refused to participate (refusal rate=1.2%). Of the 5660 FSWs who participated, 121 were HIV seropositive (weighted HIV prevalence 2.3%; 95% CI 1.9% to 2.7%) mostly concentrated within cities in Sindh. Multivariate analysis showed being uneducated/illiterate (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.1; 95% CI 1.4 to 3.4), directly dealing with clients without a pimp (aOR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1 to 2.8), non-use of condom with clients (aOR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1 to 2.8), having sexual contact with people who inject drugs (PWID) (aOR 2.2; 95% CI 1.3 to 3.7) and non-participation in HIV programmes (aOR 1.7; 95% CI 1.0 to 3.1) as factors independently associated with HIV seropositivity. CONCLUSIONS: We found a weighted national HIV prevalence of 2.3% and identified factors independently associated with HIV in FSWs. The country needs to scale up HIV prevention programmes to improve coverage, prioritising FSWs who are illiterate, work independently and have PWID as sex partners. Emphasis should be laid on strategies to improve condom use with both regular and non-regular partners.

Geographical targeting of active case finding for tuberculosis in Pakistan using hotspots identified by artificial intelligence software (SPOT-TB): study protocol for a pragmatic stepped wedge cluster randomised control trial.

INTRODUCTION: Pakistan has significantly strengthened its capacity for active case finding (ACF) for tuberculosis (TB) that is being implemented at scale in the country. However, yields of ACF have been lower than expected, raising concerns on its effectiveness in the programmatic setting. Distribution of TB in communities is likely to be spatially heterogeneous and targeting of ACF in areas with higher TB prevalence may help improve yields. The primary aim of SPOT-TB is to investigate whether a policy change to use a geographically targeted approach towards ACF supported by an artificial intelligence (AI) software, MATCH-AI, can improve yields in Pakistan. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: SPOT-TB will use a pragmatic, stepped wedge cluster randomised design. A total of 30 mobile X-ray units and their field teams will be randomised to receive the intervention. Site selection for ACF in the intervention areas will be guided primarily through the use of MATCH-AI software that models subdistrict TB prevalence and identifies potential disease hotspots. Control areas will use existing approaches towards site selection that are based on staff knowledge, experience and analysis of historical data. The primary outcome measure is the difference in bacteriologically confirmed incident TB detected in the intervention relative to control areas. All remaining ACF-related procedures and algorithms will remain unaffected by this trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan (7-82/IERC-HSA/2022-52) and from the Common Management Unit for TB, HIV and Malaria, Ministry of Health Services, Regulation and Coordination, Islamabad, Pakistan (26-IRB-CMU-2023). Findings from this study will be disseminated through publications in peer-reviewed journals and stakeholder meetings in Pakistan with the implementing partners and public-sector officials. Findings will also be presented at local and international medical and public health conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT06017843.

Second-generation surveillance for HIV/AIDS in Pakistan: results from the 4th round of Integrated Behavior and Biological Survey 2011-2012.

OBJECTIVES: In an effort to fully analyse and understand the HIV situation and its epidemiology in Pakistan, a bilateral collaboration between the National AIDS Control Program and the Canadian International Development Agency resulted in the establishment of an effective second-generation surveillance (SGS) system for HIV/AIDS between 2004 and 2012 in accordance with the published guidelines. This paper presents findings from the 4th round of SGS. METHODS: A mapping exercise was initially conducted for size estimations of the key vulnerable populations: people who inject drugs (PWIDs), male sex workers (MSWs), hijra sex workers (HSWs), and female sex workers (FSWs), followed by an Integrated Behavioral and Biological Surveillance in 20 selected cities across Pakistan. RESULTS: The estimated sizes of the four key populations mapped in the 20 cities were 89 178 FSWs, 46 351 PWIDs, 23 317 HSWs and 19 119 MSWs. The HIV sero-prevalence among PWIDs was the highest among all key populations surveyed at 37.8% (CI 37.3 to 38.3) nationally, followed by a prevalence of 7.2% (CI 6.8 to 7.5) among HSWs, 3.1% (CI 2.8 to 3.4) among MSWs and 0.8% (CI 0.4 to 1.0) for FSWs. Various key risk behaviours, that is, sharing of syringes by PWIDs and inconsistent use of condoms by sex workers, were documented. CONCLUSIONS: Pakistan's HIV epidemic that once was characterised primarily by transmission among PWIDs is now increasingly characterised by significant sexual transmission, and all types of sex workers (male, hijra and female) exhibit epidemiological proportions of infection. There is a need to develop concrete strategic plans for each vulnerable subpopulation, initially focusing prevention resources on those with a higher risk or vulnerability.

Geographical and temporal variation of injection drug users in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVES: We describe the characteristics of injecting drug users (IDU) in Pakistan in 2006 and 2011, and assess the heterogeneity of IDU characteristics across different cities and years as well as factors associated with HIV infection. METHODS: Cross-sectional, integrated behavioural-biological surveys of IDU were conducted in 10 cities across Pakistan in 2006 and 2011. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to describe the differences in HIV prevalence and risk behaviours between cities and over time. RESULTS: Large increases in HIV prevalence among injection drug users in Pakistan were observed, with overall HIV prevalence increasing from 16.2% in 2006 to 31.0% in 2011; an increase in HIV prevalence was also seen in all geographic areas except one. There was an increase in risk behaviours between 2006 and 2011, anecdotally related to a reduction in the availability of services for IDU. In 2011, larger proportions of IDU reported injecting several times a day and using professional injectors, and fewer reported always using clean syringes. An increase in the proportion living on the street was also observed and this was associated with HIV infection. Cities differ in terms of HIV prevalence, risk profiles, and healthcare seeking behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high prevalence of HIV among injection drug users in Pakistan and considerable potential for further transmission through risk behaviours. HIV prevention programs may be improved through geographic targeting of services within a city and for involving groups that interact with IDU (such as pharmacy staff and professional injectors) in harm reduction initiatives.

Heterogeneity of characteristics, structure, and dynamics of male and hijra sex workers in selected cities of Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: We sought to describe the characteristics and operational dynamics of male sex workers (MSW) and hijra sex workers (HSWs) in 11 cities across Pakistan in 2011. METHODS: We report descriptive statistics of self-reported sexual behaviour data from cross-sectional mapping and biological and behavioural surveys conducted among 1431 MSWs and 1415 HSWs in four cities across Pakistan in 2011. RESULTS: While Karachi had the largest numbers of MSWs and HSWs, Quetta had the largest relative population sizes, with 3.6 MSWs per 1000 male adults and 3.3 HSWs per 1000 male adults. There was considerable variability in the proportion of HSWs who operate through deras, ranging from 2.2% in Peshawar to 62.7% in Karachi. The number of HSWs per guru varies by city, from 1.5 in Quetta to 16.5 HSWs per guru in Karachi. Among HSWs, the use of mobile phones for solicitation ranged from 37.6% in Quetta to 83% in Peshawar and among MSWs the use of mobile phones ranged from 27% in Karachi to 52% in Quetta. In Quetta, a large proportion of HSWs (41%) find clients through gurus. Client volume tended to be higher among HSWs and among both MSWs and HSWs in Quetta and Peshawar. Condom use with clients was most consistent in Quetta, with 31% of MSWs and 41% of HSWs reporting always using condoms with clients. Peshawar had the greatest proportion reporting never using condoms. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable geographic heterogeneity in the characteristics and operational dynamics of MSWs and HSWs across Pakistan.

The size and distribution of key populations at greater risk of HIV in Pakistan: implications for resource allocation for scaling up HIV prevention programmes.

BACKGROUND: With competing interests, limited funding and a socially conservative context, there are many barriers to implementing evidence-informed HIV prevention programmes for sex workers and injection drug users in Pakistan. Meanwhile, the HIV prevalence is increasing among these populations across Pakistan. We sought to propose and describe an approach to resource allocation which would maximise the impact and allocative efficiency of HIV prevention programmes. METHODS: Programme performance reports were used to assess current resource allocation. Population size estimates derived from mapping conducted in 2011 among injection drug users and hijra, male and female sex workers and programme costs per person documented from programmes in the province of Sindh and also in India were used to estimate the cost to deliver services to 80% of these key population members across Pakistan. Cities were prioritised according to key population size. RESULTS: To achieve 80% population coverage, HIV prevention programmes should be implemented in 10 major cities across Pakistan for a total annual operating cost of approximately US$3.5 million, which is much less than current annual expenditures. The total cost varies according to the local needs and the purchasing power of the local currency. CONCLUSIONS: By prioritising key populations at greatest risk of HIV in cities with the largest populations and limited resources, may be most effectively harnessed to quell the spread of HIV in Pakistan.

Patterns and trends in Pakistan's heterogeneous HIV epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Considerable HIV transmission occurs among injection drug users (IDUs) in Pakistan and recently the HIV prevalence has been increasing among male (MSW), hijra (transgender; HSW) and female (FSW) sex workers. We describe past and estimate future patterns of HIV emergence among these populations in several cities in Pakistan. METHODS: The density of these key populations per 1000 adult men was calculated using 2011 mapping data from Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad, Larkana, Peshawar and Quetta, and surveillance data were used to assess bridging between these key populations. We used the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package model to estimate and project HIV epidemics among these key populations in Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad and Larkana. RESULTS: The density and bridging of key populations varied across cities. Lahore had the largest FSW population (11.5/1000 adult men) and the smallest IDU population (1.7/1000 adult men). Quetta had the most sexual and drug injection bridging between sex workers and IDUs (6.7%, 7.0% and 3.8% of FSW, MSW and HSW, respectively, reported injecting drugs). Model evidence suggests that by 2015 HIV prevalence is likely to reach 17-22% among MSWs/HSWs in Karachi, 44-49% among IDUs in Lahore and 46-66% among IDUs in Karachi. Projection suggests the prevalence may reach as high as 65-75% among IDUs in Faisalabad by 2025. HIV prevalence is also estimated to increase among FSWs, particularly in Karachi and Larkana. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need to closely monitor regional and subpopulation epidemic patterns and implement prevention programmes customised to local epidemics.

Patient's perception, compliance to treatment and health education of antiretroviral therapy among HIV patients at a tertiary healthcare setting.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate perceptions, compliance to treatment and satisfaction levels regarding health education services pertaining to the anti-retrovival therapy among HIV and AIDS patients. METHODS: The cross-sectional survey was carried out at the HIV Treatment Centre, Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS), Islamabad, from September 2009 to February 2010 in which patients were interviewed separately regarding their perceptions, compliance to treatment and satisfaction levels regarding health education services pertaining to the anti-retrovival therapy. All data collected was entered into SPSS version 15.0. The data was revalidated and analysed. RESULTS: One hundred and forty patients were interviewed; there were 99 (70.7%) males.. Of the total, 28 (20%) had no knowledge about the beneficial effects of the therapy, and 45 (32 %) ranked health education services extremely beneficial in understanding the anti-retrovival therapy. CONCLUSION: While a significant proportion of patients considered ART either somewhat beneficial or beneficial in treating their ailment, they were unclear about the impact of health education provided at the treatment centre and different forms of print media.

Pakistan's COVID-19 Prevention and Control Response Using the World Health Organization's Guidelines for Epidemic Response Interventions.

Massive coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) devastation was anticipated in Pakistan due to poor track record of responding to epidemics. However, by adopting effective and timely response measures under strong government leadership, Pakistan averted a significant number of infections. We present the government of Pakistan's efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19, using the World Health Organization's guidelines for epidemic response intervention. The sequence of interventions is presented under the epidemic response stages, namely anticipation, early detection, containment-control, and mitigation. Key factors of Pakistan's response included decisive political leadership and implementation of a coordinated and evidence-informed strategy. Moreover, early control measures, mobilization of front-line health workers for contact tracing, public awareness campaigns, 'smart lockdowns', and massive vaccination drives are key strategies that helped flatten the curve. These interventions and lessons learnt can help countries and regions struggling with COVID-19 to develop successful strategies to flatten the curve and enhance disease response preparedness.

A Cross-Sectional Study to Assess HIV/AIDS-Related Stigma and Its Drivers Among Dental Healthcare Providers in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Introduction HIV-related stigma and discrimination among healthcare providers are some of the strongest obstacles to effectively responding to HIV and achieving health-related quality of life. In the Pakistani context, HIV-related discrimination has been explored mainly among people living with HIV (PLHIV), and no study has investigated HIV-related stigma from the perspective of dental healthcare providers. Aim This study aimed to investigate the HIV-related stigma among dental healthcare workers in Pakistan and understand the factors associated with it. Methodology This cross-sectional study was conducted for a period of three months (December 2021 to February 2022) among 601 consenting dental healthcare providers in all public and private dental healthcare facilities in Islamabad, Pakistan. Pretested questionnaires collected information on demographics, work-related characteristics, knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding HIV/AIDS. HIV-related stigma was assessed through "the stigma index" developed by USAID and was measured as a continuous variable. Multivariate linear regression analysis evaluated the independent effect of different factors associated with HIV-related stigma. Results HIV-related stigma remains highly prevalent within both public and private dental healthcare facilities in ICT and among all cadres of dental healthcare providers. Among associated factors, misconceptions in HIV knowledge are highly significant (p < 0.001) and those with a higher score of incorrect HIV knowledge had higher levels of stigma. Healthcare providers who read any HIV-related manual or guidelines were found to be less stigmatized as compared to those who have not been exposed to any such literature (p=0.029). Dentists (p=0.04) showed higher levels of stigma as compared to dental assistants and dental hygienists, while employees of private hospitals (p=0.0) and private clinics (p=0.0) were far more stigmatized by HIV in comparison to dental healthcare providers in public hospitals. Conclusion This study provides the first-ever analysis of HIV-related stigma and its drivers in the dental healthcare settings in Pakistan and highlights multiple individual, clinical, and policy-level factors associated with it. In order to address this stigma, it is essential for healthcare institutions to create supportive and inclusive healthcare settings, by providing education and training to care providers in order to increase their understanding of the disease itself. In addition, healthcare institutions can take steps to ensure that their policies and practices are inclusive and non-discriminatory, such as implementing policies that prohibit discrimination based on HIV status and providing confidential care. On the other hand, care providers must work to recognize their own biases and strive to provide non-discriminatory and culturally sensitive care to all patients. The findings of this study could be used as a baseline and insight by organizations like the National AIDS Control Program into possible targets for future exploration and interventions to effectively reduce the stigma toward PLHIV in dental healthcare settings.

Risk factors of HIV and variation in access to clean needles among people who inject drugs in Pakistan.

We identified key risk factors for HIV among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Pakistan and explored access to free clean needles. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate associations between HIV prevalence and demographic, behavioral, and socio-economic characteristics of PWID. Data came from the Government of Pakistan's Integrated Biological and Behavioral Surveillance (IBBS) Round 5 (2016-17; 14 cities). A secondary analysis investigated associations with reported access to clean needles. Unweighted HIV prevalence among 4,062 PWID (99% male) was 21.0%. Longer injecting duration (Odds ratio [OR] 1.06 [95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.10]; per year), higher injecting frequency (OR 1.67 [1.30-2.13]; per unit increase), and injecting heroin (OR 1.90 [1.11-3.25]) were positively associated with HIV prevalence. There was no association between using a used syringe at last injection and HIV. Having>10 years of education had lower odds of HIV than being illiterate (OR 0.58 [0.35-0.95]). Having a regular sexual partner (OR 0.74 [0.57-0.97]) or paying for sex with the opposite sex (OR = 0.62 [0.45-0.85]) had lower odds of HIV than not. Conversely, PWID paying a man/hijra for sex had higher odds of HIV (OR 1.20 [1.00-1.43]). Receipt of clean needles varied by city of residence (0-97% coverage), whilst PWID with knowledge of HIV service delivery programs had higher odds of receiving clean needles (OR 4.58 [3.50-5.99]). Injecting behaviors were associated with HIV prevalence among PWID, though risks related to paying for sex remain complicated. Geographical variation in access to clean needles suggests potential benefits of more widely spread public health services.

Key MessagesWhat is already known on this topicThe HIV epidemic in Pakistan is concentrated among key populations including people who inject drugs.What this study addsInjecting practices, sexual behaviors, and socio-economic factors are associated with HIV prevalence among people who inject drugs. Access to harm reduction services is varied in Pakistan.How this study might affect research, practice, or policyAccess to clean free needles, as well as service delivery programs, with a broad geographical reach remain important to curb the HIV epidemic among people who inject drugs in Pakistan.

An assessment of facility readiness for comprehensive abortion care in 12 districts of Pakistan using the WHO Service Availability and Readiness Assessment tool.

Although Pakistan's Essential Package of Health Services was recently updated to include therapeutic and post-abortion care, little is known about current health facility readiness for these services. This study assessed the availability of comprehensive abortion care, and readiness of health facilities to deliver these services, within the public sector in 12 districts of Pakistan. A facility inventory was completed in 2020-2021 using the WHO Service Availability and Readiness Assessment, with a newly developed abortion module. A composite readiness indicator was developed based on national clinical guidelines and previous studies. Just 8.4% of facilities reported offering therapeutic abortion, while 14.3% offered post-abortion care. Misoprostol (75.2%) was the most common method provided by facilities that offer therapeutic abortion, followed by vacuum aspiration (60.7%) and dilatation and curettage (D&C) (59%). Few facilities had all the readiness components required to deliver pharmacological or surgical therapeutic abortion, or post-abortion care (<1%), but readiness was higher in tertiary (22.2%) facilities. Readiness scores were lowest for "guidelines and personnel" (4.1%), and slightly higher for medicines and products (14.3-17.1%), equipment (16.3%) and laboratory services (7.4%). This assessment highlights the potential to increase the availability of comprehensive abortion care in Pakistan, particularly in primary care and in rural areas, to improve the readiness of health facilities to deliver these services, and to phase out non-recommended methods of abortion (D&C). The study also demonstrates the feasibility and utility of adding an abortion module to routine health facility assessments, which can inform efforts to strengthen sexual and reproductive health and rights.

Assessment of Effective Coverage of Antenatal Care and Associated Factors in Squatter Settlements of Islamabad Capital Territory, Pakistan: An Analytical Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Effective coverage of antenatal care (ANC) goes beyond contact coverage and assesses the quality of service provided. We used World Health Organization's recommended positive pregnancy guidelines to assess effective coverage and factors associated with the utilization of ANC among women in squatter settlements of Islamabad Capital Territory. METHODS: We conducted a household survey in the study area with 416 women who had given birth in the past one year. Face-to-face interviews were conducted after the selection of study subjects was done through a systematic random sampling approach. Statistical analysis was carried out using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences 22 (SPSS 22; IBM corp. Armonk, NY). Effective ANC coverage was defined as four or more ANC visits along with all WHO-recommended interventions received at least once during ANC. Adjusted odds ratios (adjOR) with 95% CI were calculated using binary logistic regression to determine the independent effects of all associated factors on the outcome. RESULTS: Of the 416 women interviewed, 399 (95.6%) had availed ANC services at least once. The coverage of 4+ ANC visits was 92% but effective coverage was only received by 35% women. The proportion of women who received nutritional interventions, maternal and fetal assessment and other preventive measures was 68%, 51% and 80.8% respectively. Maternal education (adjOR, 95% CI = 4.8[2.4-9.3]), family income (2.3[1.1-5.1]), multiparity (1.7[1.1-2.9]), place of first ANC visit (4.2[1.7-10.5]) and distance from a health facility (2.2[1.3-3.6]) were independently associated with the non-utilization of effective ANC. CONCLUSION: Despite a very high crude coverage of ANC services, the study shows a very low proportion of women receiving effective coverage. This stresses the importance of measuring the proportion of the population that receives health services with quality to monitor progress toward achieving universal health coverage.

Indirect effects of COVID-19 pandemic on reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health services in Pakistan.

Background: COVID-19 is having many impacts on health, economy and social life; some due to the indirect effects of closure of health facilities to curb the spread. Closures were implemented in Pakistan from March 2020, affecting provision of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) services. Aims: To appraise the effects of containment and lockdown policies on RMNCH service utilization in order to develop an early response to avoid the catastrophic impact of COVID-19 on RMNCH in Pakistan. Methods: Routine monitoring data were analysed for indicators utilization of RMNCH care. The analysis was based on Period 1 (January-May 2020, first wave of COVID-19); Period 2 (June-September 2020, declining number of cases of COVID-19); and Period 3 (October-December 2020, second wave of COVID-19). We also compared data from May and December 2020 with corresponding months in 2019, to ascertain whether changes were due to COVID-19. Results: Reduced utilization was noted for all RMNCH indicators during Periods 1 and 3. There was a greater decline in service utilization during the first wave, and the highest reduction (~82%) was among children aged < 5 years, who were treated for pneumonia. The number of caesarean sections dropped by 57%, followed by institutional deliveries and first postnatal visit (37% each). Service utilization increased from June to September, but the second wave of COVID-19 led to another decrease. Conclusion: To reinstate routine services, priority actions and key areas include continued provision of family planning services along with uninterrupted immunization campaigns and routine maternal and child services.

Elucidating Drivers for Variations in the Explosive Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic Among People Who Inject Drugs in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan's explosive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic among people who inject drugs (PWID) varies widely across cities. We evaluated possible drivers for these variations. METHODS: Multivariable regression analyses were undertaken using data from 5 national surveys among PWID (n = 18 467; 2005-2017) to determine risk factors associated with variations in city-level HIV prevalence. A dynamic HIV model was used to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF; proportion of HIV infections prevented over 10 years when that risk factor is removed) of these risk factors to HIV transmission and impact on HIV incidence of reducing their prevalence. RESULTS: Regression analyses suggested that city-level HIV prevalence is strongly associated with the prevalence of using professional injectors at last injection, heroin use in last month, and injecting ≥4 times per day. Through calibrating a model to these associations, we estimate that the 10-year PAFs of using professional injectors, heroin use, and frequent injecting are 45.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 4.3%-79.7%), 45.9% (95% UI, 8.1%-78.4%), and 22.2% (95% UI, 2.0%-58.4%), respectively. Reducing to lowest city-level prevalences of using professional injectors (2.8%; median 89.9% reduction), heroin use (0.9%; median 91.2% reduction), and frequent injecting (0.1%; median 91.8% reduction) in 2020 reduces overall HIV incidence by 52.7% (95% UI, 6.1%-82.0%), 53.0% (95% UI, 11.3%-80.2%), and 28.1% (95% UI, 2.7%-66.6%), respectively, over 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions should focus on these risk factors to control Pakistan's explosive HIV epidemic among PWID, including a concomitant expansion of high-coverage needle/syringe provision, opioid substitution therapy, and antiretroviral therapy.

HIV-1 phylodynamic analysis among people who inject drugs in Pakistan correlates with trends in illicit opioid trade.

Pakistan is considered by the World Health Organization to currently have a "concentrated" HIV-1 epidemic due to a rapid rise in infections among people who inject drugs (PWID). Prevalence among the country's nearly 105,000 PWID is estimated to be 37.8% but has been shown to be higher in several large urban centers. A lack of public health resources, the common use of professional injectors and unsafe injection practices are believed to have fueled the outbreak. Here we evaluate the molecular characteristics of HIV-1 sequences (n = 290) from PWID in several Pakistani cities to examine transmission dynamics and the association between rates of HIV-1 transmission with regards to regional trends in opioid trafficking. Tip-to-tip (patristic) distance based phylogenetic cluster inferences and BEAST2 Bayesian phylodynamic analyses of time-stamped data were performed on HIV-1 pol sequences generated from dried blood spots collected from 1,453 PWID as part of a cross-sectional survey conducted in Pakistan during 2014/2015. Overall, subtype A1 strains were dominant (75.2%) followed by CRF02_AG (14.1%), recombinants/unassigned (7.2%), CRF35_AD (2.1%), G (1.0%) and C (0.3%). Nearly three quarters of the PWID HIV-1 sequences belonged to one of five distinct phylogenetic clusters. Just below half (44.4%) of individuals in the largest cluster (n = 118) did seek help injecting from professional injectors which was previously identified as a strong correlate of HIV-1 infection. Spikes in estimated HIV-1 effective population sizes coincided with increases in opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, Pakistan's western neighbor. Structured coalescent analysis was undertaken in order to investigate the spatial relationship of HIV-1 transmission among the various cities under study. In general terms, our analysis placed the city of Larkana at the center of the PWID HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan which is consistent with previous epidemiological data.

Heterogeneity in geographical trends of HIV epidemics among key populations in Pakistan: a mathematical modeling study of survey data.

BACKGROUND: Assessing patterns and trends in new infections is key to better understanding of HIV epidemics, and is best done through monitoring changes in incidence over time. In this study, we examined disparities in geographical trends of HIV epidemics among people who inject drugs (PWIDs), female sex workers (FSWs) and hijra/transgender/male sex workers (H/MSWs), in Pakistan. METHODS: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) mathematical model was used to explore geographical trends in HIV epidemics. Four rounds of mapping and surveillance data collected among key populations (KPs) across 20 cities in Pakistan between 2005-2011 was used for modeling. Empirical estimates of HIV prevalence of each KP in each city were used to fit the model to estimate prevalence and incidence over time. RESULTS: HIV incidence among PWIDs in Pakistan reached its peak in 2011, estimated at 45.3 per 1000 person-years. Incidence was projected to continue to rise from 18.9 in 2015 to 24.3 in 2020 among H/MSWs and from 3.2 in 2015 to 6.3 in 2020 among FSWs. The number of people living with HIV in Pakistan was estimated to steadily increase through at least 2020. HIV incidence peak among PWIDs ranged from 16.2 in 1997 in Quetta to 71.0 in 2010 in Faisalabad (per 1000 person-years). Incidence among H/MSWs may continue to rise through 2020 in all the cities, except in Larkana where it peaked in the early 2000s. In 2015, model estimated incidence among FSWs was 8.1 in Karachi, 6.6 in Larkana, 2.0 in Sukkur and 1.2 in Lahore (per 1000 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: There exists significant geographical heterogeneity in patterns and trends of HIV sub-epidemics in Pakistan. Focused interventions and service delivery approaches, different by KP and city, are recommended.

Heterogeneity Among Sex Workers in Overlapping HIV Risk Interactions With People Who Inject Drugs: A Cross-Sectional Study From 8 Major Cities in Pakistan.

Concerns remain regarding the heterogeneity in overlapping human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk behaviors among sex workers (SWs) in Pakistan; specifically, the degree to which SWs interact with people who inject drugs (PWID) through sex and/or needle sharing.Following an in-depth mapping performed in 2011 to determine the size and distribution of key populations at highest risk of HIV acquisition in Pakistan, a cross-sectional biological and behavioral survey was conducted among PWID, female (FSWs), male (MSWs), and hijra/transgender (HSWs) sex workers, and data from 8 major cities were used for analyses. Logistic regression was used to identify factors, including city of residence and mode of SW-client solicitation, contributing to the overlapping risks of drug injection and sexual interaction with PWID.The study comprised 8483 SWs (34.5% FSWs, 32.4% HSWs, and 33.1% MSWs). Among SWs who had sex with PWID, HSWs were 2.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-5.74) and 1.99 (95% CI, 0.94-4.22) times more likely to inject drugs than MSWs and FSWs, respectively. There was up to a 3-fold difference in drug injecting probability, dependent on where and/or how the SW solicited clients. Compared with SWs in Larkana, the highest likelihood of drug injection use was among SWs in Multan (OR = 4.52; 95% CI: 3.27-6.26), followed by those in Lahore, Quetta, and Faisalabad.Heterogeneity exists in the overlapping patterns of HIV risk behaviors of SWs. The risk of drug injection among SWs also varies by city. Some means of sexual client solicitation may be along the pathway to overlapping HIV risk vulnerability due to increased likelihood of drug injection among SWs. There is a need to closely to monitor the mixing patterns between SWs and PWID and underlying structural factors, such as means of sexual client solicitation, that mediate HIV risk, and implement prevention programs customized to local subepidemics.

The HIV/AIDS Surveillance Project mapping approach: an innovative approach for mapping and size estimation for groups at a higher risk of HIV in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: We developed a mapping approach to gather data on distribution, number of settings, operational typologies and estimated size of female sex workers (FSWs), male sex workers, hijra sex workers and injection drug users in Pakistan. METHODS: Data were collected across 12 major cities in Pakistan. Broader methodological steps involved dividing each target city into smaller geographical units and collecting data within each zone from secondary and tertiary key informants, also known as level 1. Level 2 ensured involvement of the communities themselves in validating these estimates, followed by triangulation of the finalized results. Rates for each subgroup per 1000 adult men or women were computed and rolled up into provincial estimates to be summed up into national estimates. RESULTS: FSWs formed the largest group reported, with estimates of 79 127 and five different subtypologies. Injection drug users were the second largest group, followed by male sex workers and hijra sex workers with estimates of 31 555, 19 320 and 14 702, respectively. We estimated approximately 167 501 FSWs in Pakistan, with an overall national rate of 4. 4 FSWs per 1000 adult women. A total of 71 911 male sex workers in addition to 39 262 hijra sex workers were calculated with rates of 1.7 and 0.9 per 1000 men, whereas injection drug users had an overall estimate of 102 042. CONCLUSION: This relatively simple methodology provides a scientific and systematic approach, which can be used in the region to estimate population sizes, understand geographical distribution of these groups and recognize the various operational typologies and dynamics of these populations for developing effective prevention strategies.