Current and future distribution of a parasite with complex life cycle under global change scenarios: Echinococcus multilocularis in Europe.

Global change is expected to have complex effects on the distribution and transmission patterns of zoonotic parasites. Modelling habitat suitability for parasites with complex life cycles is essential to further our understanding of how disease systems respond to environmental changes, and to make spatial predictions of their future distributions. However, the limited availability of high quality occurrence data with high spatial resolution often constrains these investigations. Using 449 reliable occurrence records for Echinococcus multilocularis from across Europe published over the last 35 years, we modelled habitat suitability for this parasite, the aetiological agent of alveolar echinococcosis, in order to describe its environmental niche, predict its current and future distribution under three global change scenarios, and quantify the probability of occurrence for each European country. Using a machine learning approach, we developed large-scale (25 × 25 km) species distribution models based on seven sets of predictors, each set representing a distinct biological hypothesis supported by current knowledge of the autecology of the parasite. The best-supported hypothesis included climatic, orographic and land-use/land-cover variables such as the temperature of the coldest quarter, forest cover, urban cover and the precipitation seasonality. Future projections suggested the appearance of highly suitable areas for E. multilocularis towards northern latitudes and in the whole Alpine region under all scenarios, while decreases in habitat suitability were predicted for central Europe. Our spatially explicit predictions of habitat suitability shed light on the complex responses of parasites to ongoing global changes.

Ecological and environmental factors affecting the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Europe, 2017 to 2021.

BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a disease which can lead to severe neurological symptoms, caused by the TBE virus (TBEV). The natural transmission cycle occurs in foci and involves ticks as vectors and several key hosts that act as reservoirs and amplifiers of the infection spread. Recently, the incidence of TBE in Europe has been rising in both endemic and new regions.AimIn this study we want to provide comprehensive understanding of the main ecological and environmental factors that affect TBE spread across Europe.MethodsWe searched available literature on covariates linked with the circulation of TBEV in Europe. We then assessed the best predictors for TBE incidence in 11 European countries by means of statistical regression, using data on human infections provided by the European Surveillance System (TESSy), averaged between 2017 and 2021.ResultsWe retrieved data from 62 full-text articles and identified 31 different covariates associated with TBE occurrence. Finally, we selected eight variables from the best model, including factors linked to vegetation cover, climate, and the presence of tick hosts.DiscussionThe existing literature is heterogeneous, both in study design and covariate types. Here, we summarised and statistically validated the covariates affecting the variability of TBEV across Europe. The analysis of the factors enhancing disease emergence is a fundamental step towards the identification of potential hotspots of viral circulation. Hence, our results can support modelling efforts to estimate the risk of TBEV infections and help decision-makers implement surveillance and prevention campaigns.

First evidence of pyrethroid resistance in Italian populations of West Nile virus vector Culex pipiens.

Culex pipiens (Linnaeus), one of the most abundant mosquito species in Europe, plays a crucial role in the endemic transmission of West Nile virus and caused the large outbreak with >1600 human cases in 2018. Although evidence of resistance to pyrethroids has been reported for Cx. pipiens populations from Spain and Greece, resistance monitoring has been largely neglected in Italy. Herein, we investigate susceptibility of Italian Cx. pipiens populations to the pyrethroids permethrin and deltamethrin. Results from WHO-tube-bioassays revealed mortalities ranging from 14-54%, indicating high levels of resistance, in four out of 10 populations exposed to permethrin (0.75%) and of 63% in one of three populations exposed to deltamethrin (0.05%). Reduced susceptibility (mortality<98%) was detected in almost all other populations. A clear association is shown between the resistant phenotype and the presence of kdr-alleles in position 1014 of the VSSC, strongly suggesting its role in reducing susceptibility. The study provides the first evidence of pyrethroid-resistance in Italian Cx. pipiens populations and reports levels of resistance paralleled in the European region only in Turkey. This highlights the urgent need to implement insecticide-resistance management plans to restore the efficacy of the nowadays only chemical weapon available to control arbovirus transmission in Europe.

Carbohydrate determination in honey samples by ion chromatography-mass spectrometry (HPAEC-MS).

Honey is a complex mixture of carbohydrates, in which the monosaccharides glucose and fructose are the most abundant compounds. Currently, more than 20 oligosaccharides have been identified in different varieties of honey normally at quite low concentration. A method was developed and validated using high-performance anion-exchange chromatography coupled to a mass spectrometry detector to investigate the composition of carbohydrates in honey samples. The method was tested for linearity range, trueness, instrumental and method detection and quantification limits, repeatability, and reproducibility. It was applied to determine seven monosaccharides, eight disaccharides, four trisaccharides, and one tetrasaccharide in various honey samples. The present work describes the composition of sugars in unifloral, multifloral, and some honeydew honey, which were produced and collected by beekeepers in the Trentino Alto-Adige region. Statistical techniques have been used to establish a relationship based on levels of carbohydrates among different Italian honey. The results emphasize that mono- and oligosaccharide profiles can be useful to discriminate different honeys according to their floral characteristics and inter-annual variability.

Investigation on potential malaria vectors (Anopheles spp.) in the Province of Trento, Italy.

BACKGROUND: Europe and Italy were declared malaria free since the 1970s although the presence of competent vectors and the high number of yearly imported malaria cases make this disease a potential rising health issue. In September 2017, a cryptic fatal case of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Province of Trento, Italy, raised the concern of health authorities on the possible resurgence of this disease in the Mediterranean Basin. METHODS: An entomological surveillance by means of BG traps, CDC light traps and larval search was performed. Sites were chosen among urban and suburban environments (e.g. private houses, public parks, schools, cemeteries, ecotone urban/forest, farms), ranging from an altitude of 91 to 1332 m above sea level. All the mosquitoes collected were morphologically identified and about half of them (103; 49%) were confirmed with the sequencing analysis of the rRNA internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS-2). RESULTS: In the present study 287 sites were screened for the presence of Anopheles spp. and 211 specimens were collected and identified. Hundred-eighteen individuals (56%) belonged to Anopheles plumbeus, 56 (26.5%) to Anopheles maculipennis complex, 10 (4.7%) to Anopheles claviger and 27 were identified only at genus level. This is the first record for the presence of An. plumbeus in the study area. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of Anopheles spp. mosquitoes in the Province of Trento, Italy, has been updated with the occurrence of An. plumbeus. The risk of malaria endemicity in the area is to be considered very low, but urban and peri-urban habitat may act as potential breeding sites for the presence of mosquito vectors and should be constantly monitored.

Fatal Outbreak in Tonkean Macaques Caused by Possibly Novel Orthopoxvirus, Italy, January 2015 1.

In January 2015, during a 3-week period, 12 captive Tonkean macacques at a sanctuary in Italy died. An orthopoxvirus infection was suspected because of negative-staining electron microscopy results. The diagnosis was confirmed by histology, virus isolation, and molecular analysis performed on different organs from all animals. An epidemiologic investigation was unable to define the infection source in the surrounding area. Trapped rodents were negative by virologic testing, but specific IgG was detected in 27.27% of small rodents and 14.28% of rats. An attenuated live vaccine was administered to the susceptible monkey population, and no adverse reactions were observed; a detectable humoral immune response was induced in most of the vaccinated animals. We performed molecular characterization of the orthopoxvirus isolate by next-generation sequencing. According to the phylogenetic analysis of the 9 conserved genes, the virus could be part of a novel clade, lying between cowpox and ectromelia viruses.

Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen.

Stochastic processes play an important role in the infectious disease dynamics of wildlife, especially in species subject to large population oscillations. Here, we study the case of a free ranging population of yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis) in northern Italy, where circulation of Dobrava-Belgrade hantavirus (DOBV) has been detected intermittently since 2001, until an outbreak emerged in 2010. We analysed the transmission dynamics of the recent outbreak using a computational model that accounts for seasonal changes of the host population and territorial behaviour. Model parameters were informed by capture-mark-recapture data collected over 14 years and longitudinal seroprevalence data from 2010 to 2013. The intermittent observation of DOBV before 2010 can be interpreted as repeated stochastic fadeouts after multiple introductions of infectious rodents migrating from neighbouring areas. We estimated that only 20% of introductions in a naïve host population results in sustained transmission after 2 years, despite an effective reproduction number well above the epidemic threshold (mean 4·5, 95% credible intervals, CI: 0·65-15·8). Following the 2010 outbreak, DOBV has become endemic in the study area, but we predict a constant probability of about 4·7% per year that infection dies out, following large population drops in winter. In the absence of stochastic fadeout, viral prevalence is predicted to continue its growth to an oscillating equilibrium around a value of 24% (95% CI: 3-57). We presented an example of invasion dynamics of a zoonotic virus where stochastic fadeout have played a major role and may induce future extinction of the endemic infection.

Mitogenomes reveal diversity of the European Lyme borreliosis vector Ixodes ricinus in Italy.

In Europe, the Ixodes ricinus tick is the most important vector of the etiological agents of Lyme borreliosis and several other emerging tick-borne diseases. Because tick-borne pathogens are dependent on their vectors for transmission, understanding the vector population structure is crucial to inform public health research of pathogen dynamics and spread. However, the population structure and dynamics of this important vector species are not well understood as most genetic studies utilize short mitochondrial and nuclear sequences with little diversity. Herein we obtained and analyzed complete mitochondrial genome (hereafter "mitogenome") sequences to better understand the genetic diversity and the population structure of I. ricinus from two long-standing tick-borne disease foci in northern Italy. Complete mitogenomes of 23 I. ricinus ticks were sequenced at high coverage. Out of 23 mitogenome sequences we identified 17 unique haplotypes composed of 244 segregating sites. Phylogenetic reconstruction using 18 complete mitogenome sequences revealed the coexistence of four highly divergent I. ricinus maternal lineages despite the narrow spatial scale over which these samples were obtained (100km). Notably, the estimated coalescence time of the 18 mitogenome haplotypes is ∼427 thousand years ago (95% HPD 330, 540). This divergence between I. ricinus lineages is consistent with the mitochondrial diversity of other arthropod vector species and indicates that long-term I. ricinus populations may have been less structured and larger than previously thought. Thus, this study suggests that a rapid and accurate retrieval of full mitochondrial genomes from this disease vector enables fine-resolution studies of tick intraspecies genetic relationships, population differentiation, and demographic history.

Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations.

Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.

Wide detection of Aedes flavivirus in north-eastern Italy--a European hotspot of emerging mosquito-borne diseases.

The pattern of flavivirus infection in mosquitoes belonging to the genera Aedes and Culex collected in two regions of north-eastern Italy (Trentino and Veneto) was assessed. Mosquitoes were collected during 2012 and screened for flaviviruses using a generic reverse transcription-nested-PCR targeted on a region of the non-structural NS5 gene. The phylogenetic analysis was performed on a fragment of ~1000 bp. Virus isolation was attempted in C6/36 insect cell lines and the infected cell cultures were studied by electron microscopy. We detected a wide distribution of Aedes flavivirus (AeFV) in Aedes albopictus, with higher infection prevalence in Trentino than in Veneto. In Culex pipiens collected in Veneto, we detected a new sequence of an insect-specific flavivirus and one of Usutu virus. Interestingly, we detected AeFV in C. pipiens, for the first time to our knowledge, in both regions. Viral isolation in cell culture was successful for AeFV. AeFV sequences found in Veneto showed a high percentage of similarity to those detected in Trentino and to those previously reported in other areas of northern Italy. Co-infections with different flaviviruses were not detected.

Pattern of tick aggregation on mice: larger than expected distribution tail enhances the spread of tick-borne pathogens.

The spread of tick-borne pathogens represents an important threat to human and animal health in many parts of Eurasia. Here, we analysed a 9-year time series of Ixodes ricinus ticks feeding on Apodemus flavicollis mice (main reservoir-competent host for tick-borne encephalitis, TBE) sampled in Trentino (Northern Italy). The tail of the distribution of the number of ticks per host was fitted by three theoretical distributions: Negative Binomial (NB), Poisson-LogNormal (PoiLN), and Power-Law (PL). The fit with theoretical distributions indicated that the tail of the tick infestation pattern on mice is better described by the PL distribution. Moreover, we found that the tail of the distribution significantly changes with seasonal variations in host abundance. In order to investigate the effect of different tails of tick distribution on the invasion of a non-systemically transmitted pathogen, we simulated the transmission of a TBE-like virus between susceptible and infective ticks using a stochastic model. Model simulations indicated different outcomes of disease spreading when considering different distribution laws of ticks among hosts. Specifically, we found that the epidemic threshold and the prevalence equilibria obtained in epidemiological simulations with PL distribution are a good approximation of those observed in simulations feed by the empirical distribution. Moreover, we also found that the epidemic threshold for disease invasion was lower when considering the seasonal variation of tick aggregation.

Avian malaria parasites in the last supper: identifying encounters between parasites and the invasive Asian mosquito tiger and native mosquito species in Italy.

BACKGROUND: The invasive Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus has dramatically expanded its distribution range, being catalogued as one of the world's 100 worst invasive alien species. As vectors of pathogens, Ae. albopictus may create novel epidemiological scenarios in the invaded areas. METHODS: Here, the frequency of encounters of Ae. albopictus with the avian malaria parasite Plasmodium and the related Haemoproteus was studied in an area with established populations in northeastern Italy and compared with those from four native mosquito species, Anopheles maculipennis s.l., Culex hortensis, Culex pipiens, and Ochlerotatus caspius. The abdomens of mosquitoes with a recent blood meal were used to identify both the blood meal source and the parasites harboured. RESULTS: Aedes albopictus had a clear antropophilic behaviour while An. maculipennis and Oc. caspius fed mainly on non-human mammals. Birds were the most common hosts of Cx. pipiens and reptiles of Cx. hortensis. Parasites were isolated from three mosquito species, with Cx. pipiens (30%) showing the highest parasite prevalence followed by Cx. hortensis (9%) and Ae. albopictus (5%). CONCLUSIONS: These results are the first identifying the avian malaria parasites harboured by mosquitoes in Italy and represent the first evidence supporting that, although Ae. albopictus could be involved in the transmission of avian malaria parasites, the risk of avian malaria parasite spread by this invasive mosquito in Europe would be minimal.

High habitat richness reduces the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Europe: A multi-scale study.

Background: The natural transmission cycle of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus is enhanced by complex interactions between ticks and key hosts strongly connected to habitat characteristics. The diversity of wildlife host species and their relative abundance is known to affect transmission of tick-borne diseases. Therefore, in the current context of global biodiversity loss, we explored the relationship between habitat richness and the pattern of human TBE cases in Europe to assess biodiversity's role in disease risk mitigation. Methods: We assessed human TBE case distribution across 879 European regions using official epidemiological data reported to The European Surveillance System (TESSy) between 2017 and 2021 from 15 countries. We explored the relationship between TBE presence and the habitat richness index (HRI1) by means of binomial regression. We validated our findings at local scale using data collected between 2017 and 2021 in 227 municipalities located in Trento and Belluno provinces, two known TBE foci in northern Italy. Findings: Our results showed a significant parabolic effect of HRI on the probability of presence of human TBE cases in the European regions included in our dataset, and a significant, negative effect of HRI on the local presence of TBE in northern Italy. At both spatial scales, TBE risk decreases in areas with higher values of HRI. Interpretation: To our knowledge, no efforts have yet been made to explore the relationship between biodiversity and TBE risk, probably due to the scarcity of high-resolution, large-scale data about the abundance or density of critical host species. Hence, in this study we considered habitat richness as proxy for vertebrate host diversity. The results suggest that in highly diverse habitats TBE risk decreases. Hence, biodiversity loss could enhance TBE risk for both humans and wildlife. This association is relevant to support the hypothesis that the maintenance of highly diverse ecosystems mitigates disease risk.

Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901-2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.

Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of different mosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing the number of human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified the abundance of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti and the local transmission potential for three arboviral infections at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution in areas where no entomological surveillance is available. METHODS: We developed a computational model to quantify the daily abundance of Aedes mosquitoes, leveraging temperature and precipitation records. The model was calibrated on mosquito surveillance data collected in 115 locations in Europe and the Americas between 2007 and 2018. Model estimates were used to quantify the reproduction number of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya in Europe and the Americas, at a high spatial resolution. FINDINGS: In areas colonised by both Aedes species, A aegypti was estimated to be the main vector for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya, being associated with a higher estimate of R0 when compared with A albopictus. Our estimates highlighted that these arboviruses were endemic in tropical and subtropical countries, with the highest risks of transmission found in central America, Venezuela, Colombia, and central-east Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission was also estimated for Florida, Texas, and Arizona (USA). The broader ecological niche of A albopictus could contribute to the emergence of chikungunya outbreaks and clusters of dengue autochthonous cases in temperate areas of the Americas, as well as in mediterranean Europe (in particular, in Italy, southern France, and Spain). INTERPRETATION: Our results provide a comprehensive overview of the transmission potential of arboviral diseases in Europe and the Americas, highlighting areas where surveillance and mosquito control capacities should be prioritised. FUNDING: EU and Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza Extended Partnership initiative on Emerging Infectious Diseases); EU (Horizon 2020); Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Progetti di ricerca di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale programme); Brazilian National Council of Science, Technology and Innovation; Ministry of Health, Brazil; and Foundation of Research for Minas Gerais, Brazil.

VectAbundance: a spatio-temporal database of Aedes mosquitoes observations.

Modelling approaches play a crucial role in supporting local public health agencies by estimating and forecasting vector abundance and seasonality. However, the reliability of these models is contingent on the availability of standardized, high-quality data. Addressing this need, our study focuses on collecting and harmonizing egg count observations of the mosquito Aedes albopictus, obtained through ovitraps in monitoring and surveillance efforts across Albania, France, Italy, and Switzerland from 2010 to 2022. We processed the raw observations to obtain a continuous time series of ovitraps observations allowing for an extensive geographical and temporal coverage of Ae. albopictus population dynamics. The resulting post-processed observations are stored in the open-access database VectAbundance.This initiative addresses the critical need for accessible, high-quality data, enhancing the reliability of modelling efforts and bolstering public health preparedness.

Lack of identification of Flaviviruses in oral and cloacal swabs from long- and short-distance migratory birds in Trentino-Alto Adige (North-eastern Italy).

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV), both belonging to the genus Flavivirus, are emerging in Italy as important human and animal pathogens. Migratory birds are involved in the spread of Flaviviruses over long distances, particularly from Africa to Europe. Once introduced, these viruses can be further be dispersed by short-distance migratory and resident bird species. Thus far, there is still a considerable knowledge gap on the role played by different bird species in the ecology and transmission mechanisms of these viruses. The Region of Trentino-Alto Adige (north-eastern Italy) is located on the migratory route of many of the short- and long-distance migratory birds that cross the Alps, connecting northern Europe and western Asia with southern Europe and Africa. Until now, only a silent circulation of WNV and USUV within the territory of the Province of Trento has been confirmed by serological screening, whilst no cases of infected humans or animals have so far been reported. However, continuous spillover events of both viruses have been reported in neighbouring Regions. The aim of this study was to monitor the circulation of WNV and USUV in Trentino-Alto Adige, in order to detect if active virus shedding occurs in migratory birds captured during their seasonal movements and to evaluate the role that different bird species could play in the spreading of these viruses. METHODS: We carried out a biomolecular survey on oral and cloacal swabs collected from migratory birds during seasonal migrations. Birds belonging to 18 transaharian and 21 intrapaleartic species were examined during spring (n = 176) and autumn (n = 146), and were tested using a generic nested-PCR. RESULTS: All samples tested negative for Flaviviruses. The possible causes of unapparent shedding, along with ecological and epidemiological implications are discussed. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of detection of active virus shedding in these bird species does not exclude the circulation of these viruses within the Trentino-Alto Adige region, as reported in previous studies. The possible ecological implications are discussed.

Correlation between airborne pollen data and the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in northern Italy.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is caused by a flavivirus that infects animals including humans. In Europe, the TBE virus circulates enzootically in natural foci among ticks and rodent hosts. The abundance of ticks depends on the abundance of rodent hosts, which in turn depends on the availability of food resources, such as tree seeds. Trees can exhibit large inter-annual fluctuations in seed production (masting), which influences the abundance of rodents the following year, and the abundance of nymphal ticks two years later. Thus, the biology of this system predicts a 2-year time lag between masting and the incidence of tick-borne diseases such as TBE. As airborne pollen abundance is related to masting, we investigated whether inter-annual variation in pollen load could be directly correlated with inter-annual variation in the incidence of TBE in human populations with a 2-year time lag. We focused our study on the province of Trento (northern Italy), where 206 TBE cases were notified between 1992 and 2020. We tested the relationship between TBE incidence and pollen load collected from 1989 to 2020 for 7 different tree species common in our study area. Through univariate analysis we found that the pollen quantities recorded two years prior for two tree species, hop-hornbeam (Ostrya carpinifolia) and downy oak (Quercus pubescens), were positively correlated with TBE emergence (R2 = 0.2) while a multivariate model with both tree species better explained the variation in annual TBE incidence (R2 = 0.34). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at quantifying the correlation between pollen quantities and the incidence of TBE in human populations. As pollen loads are collected by widespread aerobiological networks using standardized procedures, our study could be easily replicated to test their potential as early warning system for TBE and other tick-borne diseases.

Shallow Whole-Genome Sequencing of Aedes japonicus and Aedes koreicus from Italy and an Updated Picture of Their Evolution Based on Mitogenomics and Barcoding.

Aedes japonicus and Aedes koreicus are two invasive mosquitoes native to East Asia that are quickly establishing in temperate regions of Europe. Both species are vectors of arboviruses, but we currently lack a clear understanding of their evolution. Here, we present new short-read, shallow genome sequencing of A. japonicus and A. koreicus individuals from northern Italy, which we used for downstream phylogenetic and barcode analyses. We explored associated microbial DNA and found high occurrences of Delftia bacteria in both samples, but neither Asaia nor Wolbachia. We then assembled complete mitogenomes and used these data to infer divergence times estimating the split of A. japonicus from A. koreicus in the Oligocene, which was more recent than that previously reported using mitochondrial markers. We recover a younger age for most other nodes within Aedini and other Culicidae. COI barcoding and phylogenetic analyses indicate that A. japonicus yaeyamensis, A. japonicus amamiensis, and the two A. koreicus sampled from Europe should be considered as separate species within a monophyletic species complex. Our studies further clarify the evolution of A. japonicus and A. koreicus, and indicate the need to obtain whole-genome data from putative species in order to disentangle their complex patterns of evolution.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of West Nile virus between Africa and Europe.

It is unclear whether West Nile virus (WNV) circulates between Africa and Europe, despite numerous studies supporting an African origin and high transmission in Europe. We integrated genomic data with geographic observations and phylogenetic and phylogeographic inferences to uncover the spatial and temporal viral dynamics of WNV between these two continents. We focused our analysis towards WNV lineages 1 (L1) and 2 (L2), the most spatially widespread and pathogenic WNV lineages. Our study shows a Northern-Western African origin of L1, with back-and-forth exchanges between West Africa and Southern-Western Europe; and a Southern African origin of L2, with one main introduction from South Africa to Europe, and no back introductions observed. We also noticed a potential overlap between L1 and L2 Eastern and Western phylogeography and two Afro-Palearctic bird migratory flyways. Future studies linking avian and mosquito species susceptibility, migratory connectivity patterns, and phylogeographic inference are suggested to elucidate the dynamics of emerging viruses.