Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review.

Current evidence on COVID-19 prognostic models is inconsistent and clinical applicability remains controversial. We performed a systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the available studies that have developed, assessed and/or validated prognostic models of COVID-19 predicting health outcomes. We searched six bibliographic databases to identify published articles that investigated univariable and multivariable prognostic models predicting adverse outcomes in adult COVID-19 patients, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mortality. We identified and assessed 314 eligible articles from more than 40 countries, with 152 of these studies presenting mortality, 66 progression to severe or critical illness, 35 mortality and ICU admission combined, 17 ICU admission only, while the remaining 44 studies reported prediction models for mechanical ventilation (MV) or a combination of multiple outcomes. The sample size of included studies varied from 11 to 7,704,171 participants, with a mean age ranging from 18 to 93 years. There were 353 prognostic models investigated, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.44 to 0.99. A great proportion of studies (61.5%, 193 out of 314) performed internal or external validation or replication. In 312 (99.4%) studies, prognostic models were reported to be at high risk of bias due to uncertainties and challenges surrounding methodological rigor, sampling, handling of missing data, failure to deal with overfitting and heterogeneous definitions of COVID-19 and severity outcomes. While several clinical prognostic models for COVID-19 have been described in the literature, they are limited in generalizability and/or applicability due to deficiencies in addressing fundamental statistical and methodological concerns. Future large, multi-centric and well-designed prognostic prospective studies are needed to clarify remaining uncertainties.

Gene-diet interactions and cardiovascular diseases: a systematic review of observational and clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Both genetic background and diet are important determinants of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Understanding gene-diet interactions could help improve CVD prevention and prognosis. We aimed to summarise the evidence on gene-diet interactions and CVD outcomes systematically. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE® via Ovid, Embase, PubMed®, and The Cochrane Library for relevant studies published until June 6th 2022. We considered for inclusion cross-sectional, case-control, prospective cohort, nested case-control, and case-cohort studies as well as randomised controlled trials that evaluated the interaction between genetic variants and/or genetic risk scores and food or diet intake on the risk of related outcomes, including myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and CVD as a composite outcome. The PROSPERO protocol registration code is CRD42019147031. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We included 59 articles based on data from 29 studies; six articles involved multiple studies, and seven did not report details of their source population. The median sample size of the articles was 2562 participants. Of the 59 articles, 21 (35.6%) were qualified as high quality, while the rest were intermediate or poor. Eleven (18.6%) articles adjusted for multiple comparisons, four (7.0%) attempted to replicate the findings, 18 (30.5%) were based on Han-Chinese ethnicity, and 29 (49.2%) did not present Minor Allele Frequency. Fifty different dietary exposures and 52 different genetic factors were investigated, with alcohol intake and ADH1C variants being the most examined. Of 266 investigated diet-gene interaction tests, 50 (18.8%) were statistically significant, including CETP-TaqIB and ADH1C variants, which interacted with alcohol intake on CHD risk. However, interactions effects were significant only in some articles and did not agree on the direction of effects. Moreover, most of the studies that reported significant interactions lacked replication. Overall, the evidence on gene-diet interactions on CVD is limited, and lack correction for multiple testing, replication and sample size consideration.

COVID-19 in Health-Care Workers: A Living Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prevalence, Risk Factors, Clinical Characteristics, and Outcomes.

Health-care workers (HCWs) are at the frontline of response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), being at a higher risk of acquiring the disease and, subsequently, exposing patients and others. Searches of 8 bibliographic databases were performed to systematically review the evidence on the prevalence, risk factors, clinical characteristics, and prognosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among HCWs. A total of 97 studies (all published in 2020) met the inclusion criteria. The estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection from HCWs' samples, using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and the presence of antibodies, was 11% (95% confidence interval (CI): 7, 15) and 7% (95% CI: 4, 11), respectively. The most frequently affected personnel were nurses (48%, 95% CI: 41, 56), whereas most of the COVID-19-positive medical personnel were working in hospital nonemergency wards during screening (43%, 95% CI: 28, 59). Anosmia, fever, and myalgia were the only symptoms associated with HCW SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Among HCWs positive for COVID-19 by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, 40% (95% CI: 17, 65) were asymptomatic at time of diagnosis. Finally, severe clinical complications developed in 5% (95% CI: 3, 8) of the COVID-19-positive HCWs, and 0.5% (95% CI: 0.02, 1.3) died. Health-care workers suffer a significant burden from COVID-19, with those working in hospital nonemergency wards and nurses being the most commonly infected personnel.

Survival after heart transplantation for Chagas cardiomyopathy using a conventional protocol: A 10-year experience in a single center.

BACKGROUND: Heart transplant (HT) remains the most frequently indicated therapy for patients with end-stage heart failure that improves prognosis in Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCM). However, the lack of benznidazole therapy and availability of RT-PCR follow-up in many centers is a major limitation to perform this life-saving intervention, as there are concerns related with the risk of reactivation. We aimed to describe the outcomes of a cohort of patients with CCM who underwent HT using a conventional protocol with mycophenolate mofetil, without benznidazole prophylaxis or RT-PCR follow-up. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study. Between 2008 and 2018, 43 patients with CCM underwent HT. A descriptive analysis to characterize outcomes as rejection, infectious and neoplastic complications and a survival analysis was carried out. RESULTS: Median of follow-up was 4.3 (IR 4.28) years. Survival at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years was 95%, 85%, and 75%, respectively, infections being the main cause of death (60%). Reactivations occurred in only three patients (7.34%) and were not related to mortality. CONCLUSION: This cohort showed a favorable survival and a low reactivation rate without an impact on mortality. Our results suggest that performing HT in patients with CCM following conventional guidelines and recommendations for other etiologies is a safe approach.

'Teaching: individual' to improve adherence in hypertension and type 2 diabetes.

Educational interventions with a multifaceted approach have proven effective to improve adherence to therapeutic regimens in people with chronic diseases. The present study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of a nursing intervention involving individual teaching compared with usual care to improve adherence with therapeutic regimens in people with hypertension and/or type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This was a parallel randomised two-arm clinical trial in 200 patients from a primary care programme. After 6 months of follow-up, there was a significant improvement in treatment adherence with a score of 0.87 (95% CI 0.30 to 1.44) on a 13 point scale, and an average reduction in systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 3.79 mmHg (95% CI: -6.85 to -0.73) in the intervention group, but not in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels (-0.16% 95% CI: -0.41 to 0.09). The individual teaching intervention was effective in improving therapeutic adherence and improving blood pressure values among the participants from the primary care programme.

Circulating Trypanosoma cruzi load and major cardiovascular outcomes in patients with chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the effect of parasite load assessed by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) in serum on the prognosis of patients with chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCM) after a 2-year follow-up. METHODS: Prospective cohort study conducted between 2015 and 2017. One hundred patients with CCM were included. Basal parasitaemia levels of Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi) were measured using a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) test. The primary composite outcome (CO) was all-cause mortality, cardiac transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device. Secondary outcomes were the baseline levels of serum biomarkers and echocardiographic variables. RESULTS: After a 2 years of follow-up, the primary CO rate was 16%. A positive qPCR was not associated with a higher risk of the CO. However, when parasitaemia was evaluated by comparing tertiles (tertile 1: undetectable parasitaemia, tertile 2: low parasitaemia and tertile 3: high parasitaemia), a higher risk of the CO (HR 3.66; 95% CI 1.11-12.21) was evidenced in tertile 2. Moreover, patients in tertile 2 had significantly higher levels of high-sensitivity troponin T and cystatin C and more frequently exhibited an ejection fraction <50%. CONCLUSION: Low parasitaemia was associated with severity markers of myocardial injury and a higher risk of the composite outcome when compared with undetectable parasitaemia. This finding could be hypothetically explained by a more vigorous immune response in patients with low parasitaemia that could decrease T. cruzi load more efficiently, but be associated with increased myocardial damage. Additional studies with a larger number of patients and cytokine measurement are required to support this hypothesis.

OBJECTIFS: Analyser l'effet de la charge parasitaire évaluée par PCR quantitative de transcription inverse (RT-qPCR) dans le sérum sur le pronostic des patients atteints de cardiomyopathie chronique de Chagas (CCM) après un suivi de deux ans. MÉTHODES: Etude de cohorte prospective menée entre 2015 et 2017. Une centaine de patients atteints de CCM ont été inclus. Les niveaux de parasitémie basale de Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi) ont été mesurés en utilisant un test de réaction en chaîne de la polymérase quantitative (qPCR). Le principal résultat composite (RC) était la mortalité toutes causes, la transplantation cardiaque et l'implantation d'un dispositif d'assistance ventriculaire gauche. Les critères secondaires étaient les niveaux de base des biomarqueurs sériques et des variables échocardiographiques. RÉSULTATS: Après 2 ans de suivi, le taux de RC primaire était de 16%. Une qPCR positive n'était pas associée à un risque plus élevé de RC. Cependant, lorsque la parasitémie était évaluée en comparant les tertiles (tertile 1: parasitémie indétectable, tertile 2: parasitémie faible et tertile 3: parasitémie élevée), un risque plus élevé de RC (HR: 3,66; IC95%: 1,11-12,21) a été mis en évidence dans le tertile 2. De plus, les patients du tertile 2 avaient des niveaux significativement plus élevés de troponine T et de cystatine-C à haute sensibilité et présentaient plus fréquemment une fraction d'éjection <50%. CONCLUSION: Une faible parasitémie était associée à des marqueurs de sévérité des lésions myocardiques et à un risque plus élevé de résultat composite par rapport à une parasitémie indétectable. Cette découverte pourrait être hypothétiquement expliquée par une réponse immunitaire plus vigoureuse chez les patients présentant une faible parasitémie qui pourrait diminuer la charge de T. cruzi plus efficacement mais être associée à une augmentation des lésions myocardiques. Des études supplémentaires avec un plus grand nombre de patients et une mesure des cytokines sont nécessaires pour étayer cette hypothèse.

Anemia and iron metabolism in COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Iron metabolism and anemia may play an important role in multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate biomarkers of anemia and iron metabolism (hemoglobin, ferritin, transferrin, soluble transferrin receptor, hepcidin, haptoglobin, unsaturated iron-binding capacity, erythropoietin, free erythrocyte protoporphyrine, and erythrocyte indices) in patients diagnosed with COVID-19, and explored their prognostic value. Six bibliographic databases were searched up to August 3rd 2020. We included 189 unique studies, with data from 57,563 COVID-19 patients. Pooled mean hemoglobin and ferritin levels in COVID-19 patients across all ages were 129.7 g/L (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 128.51; 130.88) and 777.33 ng/mL (95% CI, 701.33; 852.77), respectively. Hemoglobin levels were lower with older age, higher percentage of subjects with diabetes, hypertension and overall comorbidities, and admitted to intensive care. Ferritin level increased with older age, increasing proportion of hypertensive study participants, and increasing proportion of mortality. Compared to moderate cases, severe COVID-19 cases had lower hemoglobin [weighted mean difference (WMD), - 4.08 g/L (95% CI - 5.12; - 3.05)] and red blood cell count [WMD, - 0.16 × 1012 /L (95% CI - 0.31; - 0.014)], and higher ferritin [WMD, - 473.25 ng/mL (95% CI 382.52; 563.98)] and red cell distribution width [WMD, 1.82% (95% CI 0.10; 3.55)]. A significant difference in mean ferritin levels of 606.37 ng/mL (95% CI 461.86; 750.88) was found between survivors and non-survivors, but not in hemoglobin levels. Future studies should explore the impact of iron metabolism and anemia in the pathophysiology, prognosis, and treatment of COVID-19.

Echocardiographic parameters, speckle tracking, and brain natriuretic peptide levels as indicators of progression of indeterminate stage to Chagas cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCM) is characterized by a unique type of cardiac involvement. Few studies have characterized echocardiographic (Echo) transitions from the indeterminate Chagas disease (ChD) form to CCM. The objective of this study was to identify the best cutoffs in multiple Echo parameters, speckle tracking, and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) to distinguish patients without CCM (stage A) vs patients with myocardial involvement (stages B, C, or D). METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted in 273 consecutive patients with different CCM stages. Echo parameters, NT-proBNP, and other clinical variables were measured. Logistic regression models (dichotomized in stage A versus B, C, and D) adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and NT-proBNP were performed. RESULTS: Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LV-GLS), mitral flow E velocity, LV mass index, and NT-proBNP identified early changes that differentiated stages A vs B, C, and D. The LV-GLS with a cutoff -20.5% showed the highest performance (AUC 92.99%; accuracy 84.56% and negative predictive value (NPV) 88.82%), which improved when it was additionally adjusted by NT-proBNP with a cutoff -20.0% (AUC 94.30%; accuracy 88.42% and NPV 93.55%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that Echo parameters and NT-proBNP may be used as diagnostic variables in detecting the onset of myocardial alterations in patients with the indeterminate stage of ChD. LV-GLS was the more accurate measurement regarding stage A differentiation from the stages B, C, and D. Prospective longitudinal studies are needed to validate these findings.

"Teaching: Individual" to increase adherence to therapeutic regimen in people with hypertension and type-2 diabetes: protocol of the controlled clinical trial ENURSIN.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, hypertension affects approximately 25% of the adult population and diabetes about 8.5%. Lack of adherence to prescribed treatment regimen remains a problem among patients undergoing long-term treatment, showing high non-adherence rates, at estimated range of between 36 and 93%. In our city, patients with hypertension and diabetes in primary care are looked after mainly by doctors with little nursing support; also, there is no published dataset among Colombian populations on the effect of nursing intervention to increase adherence to therapeutic regimen. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of nursing intervention "Teaching: Individual" compared with usual care, to increase adherence to therapeutic regimen in people with hypertension and/or type-2 diabetes, and to analyze the impact to glycosylated hemoglobin and systolic blood pressure levels. METHODS: A two-arm, single-blinded, randomized controlled trial, with participants allocated to either intervention group with "Teaching: Individual" provided by two nurses, or control group receiving routine care only. Two Hundred patients attending cardiovascular risk programs of Bucaramanga, Colombia were included. Nursing intervention consisted of six educational sessions about Coping Enhancement; Behavior Modification; Teaching: Disease Process, Prescribed Medication, Prescribed Diet and Prescribed Exercise. The outcomes were Treatment Behavior: Illness or Injury (adherence to treatment), levels of both glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and systolic blood pressure for 24 h, to be measured at baseline and two follow-up time points. Basic characteristics of the groups were compared through chi-square/Fisher's exact or Students-T/Mann-Whitney U test. Outcomes were evaluated with repeated data methods and investigated changes in the outcomes over time and to compare these changes among treatment groups, and statistical significance with p-value < 0.05 were considered. DISCUSSION: The nursing intervention "Teaching: Individual" to increase adherence to therapeutic regimen in people with hypertension and/or type-2 diabetes represents an innovative care approach intended for low-income population. The study will advise district health system policy makers and managers as to the efficacy of implementing this intervention. Should this intervention turn out efficacious, it can potentially achieve wide application in cardiovascular risk programs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ENURSIN was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02758275) on April 27, 2016, protocol number 01.