Imaging in atrial fibrillation: A way to assess atrial fibrosis and remodeling to assist decision-making.

The 2020 ESC atrial fibrillation (AF) guidelines suggest the novel 4S-AF scheme for the characterization of AF. Imaging techniques could be helpful for this objective in everyday clinical practice, and information derived from these techniques reflects basic aspects of the pathophysiology of AF, which may facilitate treatment decision-making, and optimal management of AF patients. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the mechanisms associated with atrial fibrosis and to describe imaging techniques that may help the management of AF patients in clinical practice. Transthoracic echocardiography is the most common procedure given its versatility, safety, and simplicity. Transesophageal echocardiography provides higher resolution exploration, and speckle tracking echocardiography can provide incremental functional and prognostic information over conventional echocardiographic parameters. In addition, LA deformation imaging, including LA strain and strain rate, are related to the extent of fibrosis. On the other hand, multidetector-row computed tomography and cardiac magnetic resonance provide higher resolution data and more accurate assessment of the dimensions, structure, and spatial relationships of the LA. Imaging is central when deciding on catheter ablation or cardioversion, and helps in selecting those patients who will really benefit from these procedures. Moreover, imaging enhances the understanding of the underlying mechanisms of atrial remodeling and might assists in refining the risk of stroke, which help to select the best medical therapies/interventions. In summary, evaluation of LA enlargement, LA remodeling and fibrosis with imaging techniques adds clinical and prognostic information and should be assessed as a part of routine comprehensive AF evaluation.

The Atrial Fibrillation Better Care (ABC) Pathway and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: the Prospective Murcia AF Project Phase II Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway was proposed for a more holistic or integrated care approach to atrial fibrillation (AF) management. We investigated whether adherence with the ABC pathway reduced the risk of adverse clinical outcomes in real-world AF patients starting vitamin K antagonist (VKAs) therapy. METHODS: Prospective cohort study including AF outpatients starting VKA therapy from July 2016 to June 2018. Patients were considered as adherent if all ABC pathway criteria (A: Avoid stroke; B: Better symptom control; and C: Cardiovascular risk factors/comorbidities management) were fulfilled. The primary endpoints were all-cause mortality, net clinical outcomes (NCOs), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and composite thrombotic/thromboembolic events at 2 years. RESULTS: We enrolled 1045 patients (51.6% female; median age 77 [70-83] years). Of these, 63.0% (658) were adherent to the ABC pathway and 37% (387) were considered non-adherent. Compared to non-adherent patients, those who were ABC adherent had lower event rates for all-cause mortality (13.76 vs. 6.56; p<0.001), NCOs (19.65 vs. 11.94; p<0.001), and MACE (11.88 vs. 7.75; p=0.006) during the follow-up. Adjusted Cox regression analyses demonstrated that the ABC pathway adherent care reduced the risks of all-cause mortality (aHR 0.57, 95% CI 0.42-0.78), NCOs (aHR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56-0.92), and cardiovascular mortality (aHR 0.54, 95% CI 0.32-0.90). Event-free survivals for all-cause mortality, NCOs (both log-rank p-values <0.001), and MACE (log-rank p-value = 0.004) were also higher in ABC pathway adherent patients. CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world prospective cohort of AF patients starting VKA therapy, adherence to the ABC pathway management at baseline significantly reduced the risk of NCOs, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular death at 2 years.

Factor XI in Carriers of Antiphospholipid Antibodies: Elevated Levels Associated with Symptomatic Thrombotic Cases, While Low Levels Linked to Asymptomatic Cases.

Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a thromboinflammatory disorder caused by circulating antiphospholipid autoantibodies (aPL) and characterized by an increased risk of thrombotic events. The pathogenic mechanisms of these antibodies are complex and not fully understood, but disturbances in coagulation and fibrinolysis have been proposed to contribute to the thrombophilic state. This study aims to evaluate the role of an emerging hemostatic molecule, FXI, in the thrombotic risk of patients with aPL. Cross-sectional and observational study of 194 consecutive and unrelated cases with aPL recruited in a single center: 82 asymptomatic (AaPL) and 112 with primary antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). Clinical and epidemiological variables were collected. The profile of aPL was determined. Plasma FXI was evaluated by Western blotting and two coagulation assays (FXI:C). In cases with low FXI, molecular analysis of the F11 gene was performed. FXI:C levels were significantly higher in patients with APS than in patients with AaPL (122.8 ± 33.4 vs. 104.5 ± 27.5; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed a significant association between symptomatic patients with aPL (APS) and high FXI (>150%) (OR = 11.57; 95% CI: 1.47-90.96; p = 0.020). In contrast, low FXI (<70%), mostly caused by inhibitors, was less frequent in the group of patients with APS compared to AaPL (OR = 0.17; 95%CI: 0.36-0.86; p = 0.032). This study suggests that FXI levels may play a causal role in the prothrombotic state induced by aPLs and holds the promise of complementary treatments in APS patients by targeting FXI.

Number needed to treat for net effect of anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation: Real-world vs. clinical-trial evidence.

AIMS: The net benefit of oral anticoagulants (OACs) in atrial fibrillation (AF) is poorly understood. We aimed to determine the NNT for net effect (NNTnet ) using calculator of absolute stroke risk (CARS) in anticoagulated patients with AF in real-world and clinical trial cohorts. METHODS: Post-hoc analysis of patient-level data from the real-world Murcia AF Project and AMADEUS clinical trial. Baseline risk of stroke was determined using CARS. The risk of stroke and major bleeding events with OAC were determined using the number of respective events at 1-year. NNTnet was calculated as a reciprocal of the net effect of absolute risk reduction with OAC (NNTnet  = 1/(absolute risk reduction of stroke[ARRstroke ] - absolute risk increase of major bleeding[ARIbleeding ])). RESULTS: In total, 3511 patients were included (1306 [37.2%] real-world patients and 2205 [62.8%] clinical trial participants). The absolute 1-year stroke risk was similar across both cohorts. In the real-world cohort, OAC was associated with a 4.0% ARRstroke , 25 NNTbenefit , 1.0% ARIbleeding , 100 NNTharm and 34 NNTnet . In the clinical trial cohort, OAC was associated with a 3.8% ARRstroke , 27 NNTbenefit , 1.6% ARIbleeding , 63 NNTharm and 46 NNTnet . In both cohorts, the NNTnet was significantly lower in patients with an excess stroke risk of ≥2% by CARS. CONCLUSION: Overall, the NNTnet approach in AF incorporates information regarding baseline risk of stroke and major bleeding, and relative effects of OAC with the potential to include multiple additional outcomes and weighting of events based on their perceived effects by individual patients.

Assessment and mitigation of bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism: A Position Paper from the ESC Working Group on Thrombosis, in collaboration with the European Heart Rhythm Association, the Association for Acute CardioVascular Care and the Asia-Pacific Heart Rhythm Society.

Whilst there is a clear clinical benefit of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) in reducing the risks of thromboembolism, major bleeding events (especially intracranial bleeds) may still occur and be devastating. The decision to initiate and continue anticoagulation is often based on a careful assessment of both the thromboembolism and bleeding risk. The more common and validated bleeding risk factors have been used to formulate bleeding risk stratification scores, but thromboembolism and bleeding risk factors often overlap. Also, many factors that increase bleeding risk are transient and modifiable, such as variable international normalized ratio values, surgical procedures, vascular procedures, or drug-drug and food-drug interactions. Bleeding risk is also not a static 'one off' assessment based on baseline factors but is dynamic, being influenced by ageing, incident comorbidities, and drug therapies. In this Consensus Document, we comprehensively review the published evidence and propose a consensus on bleeding risk assessments in patients with AF and VTE, with the view to summarizing 'best practice' when approaching antithrombotic therapy in these patients. We address the epidemiology and size of the problem of bleeding risk in AF and VTE, review established bleeding risk factors, and summarize definitions of bleeding. Patient values and preferences, balancing the risk of bleeding against thromboembolism are reviewed, and the prognostic implications of bleeding are discussed. We propose consensus statements that may help to define evidence gaps and assist in everyday clinical practice.

Relationship between temporal rhythm-based classification of atrial fibrillation and stroke: real-world vs. clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The risk of stroke according to clinical classification of atrial fibrillation (AF) remains poorly defined. Here, we assessed the impact of AF type on stroke risk in vitamin K antagonist-treated patients with AF in 'real-world' and 'clinical trial' cohorts. METHODS: Post-hoc analysis of patient-level data from the Murcia AF Project and AMADEUS trial. Clinical classification of AF was based on contemporary recommendations from international guidelines. Study endpoint was the incidence rate of ischaemic stroke. Stroke risk was determined using CHA2DS2-VASc score and CARS. A modified CHA2DS2-VAS'c' score that applied one additional point for a 'c' criterion of continuous AF (i.e. non-paroxysmal AF) was calculated. RESULTS: We included 5,917 patients: 1,361 (23.0%) real-world and 4,556 (77.0%) clinical trial. Baseline demographics were balanced in the real-world cohort but clinical trial participants with non-pAF (vs. pAF) were older, male-predominant and had more comorbidities. Crude stroke rates were comparable between the groups in real-world patients (IRR 0.72 [95% CI,0.37-1.28], p = 0.259) though clinical trial participants with non-pAF had a significantly higher crude rate of stroke events (IRR 4.66 [95%,CI,2.41-9.48], p < 0.001). Using multivariable analysis, AF type was not independently associated with stroke risk in the real-world (adjusted HR 1.41 [95% CI,0.80-2.50], p = 0.239) and clinical trial (adjusted HR 1.16 [95% CI,0.62-2.20], p = 0.646) cohorts, after accounting for other risk factors. There was no significant improvement in the CHA2DS2-VAS'c' compared to CHA2DS2-VASc score in either cohorts (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our results support the need for anticoagulation based on thromboembolic risk profile rather than AF type.

Outcomes in VKA-treated patients with atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease: Clinical trials vs 'real-world'.

BACKGROUND: Our objectives were to evaluate the risk of adverse events in a 'real-world' vs 'clinical trial' cohort of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: We studied patient-level data for vitamin K antagonist-treated AF patients with a creatinine clearance <60 mL/min from the Murcia AF Project and AMADEUS trial. The study end-points were ischaemic stroke, major bleeding, all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction and intracranial haemorrhage. RESULTS: This study included 1,108 AF patients with CKD. The annual rate of the composite study outcome of ischaemic stroke, major bleeding and all-cause mortality was higher in the real-world (13.4%) vs AMADEUS (6.6%) cohort with an IRR of 2.04 (95% CI,1.34-3.09), P < .001. Individual annual rates of major bleeding, all-cause mortality and non-cardiovascular mortality were significantly greater in the real-world cohort. Similar findings were demonstrated even after multivariable adjustment, with the composite outcome HR of 2.85 (95% CI,1.74-4.66), P < .001. In a propensity score matched cohort, this risk remained significantly higher in the real-world cohort (IRR 2.95 [95% CI,1.03-10.28], P = .027), as did the risk of major bleeding and all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: Vitamin K antagonist-treated AF patients with CKD are exposed to significant annual rates of major adverse events including all-cause mortality. This risk may be under-appreciated in the idealised environment of randomised controlled trials.

A nurse-led atrial fibrillation clinic: Impact on anticoagulation therapy and clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Nurses play a central role in the management of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. An unresolved question is whether a nurse-led clinic would improve clinical outcomes. Herein, we investigated the impact of a nurse-led clinic on anticoagulation therapy and clinical outcomes in a cohort of naïve AF patients. METHODS: Prospective study including AF patients starting vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) into a nurse-led AF clinic. These patients were followed in this specific AF clinic. Additionally, AF patients already taking VKAs for 6 months followed according to the routine clinical practice were included as comparison group. The quality of anticoagulation was assessed at 6 months. Efficacy and safety endpoints were recorded during follow-up. RESULTS: We included 223 patients (Nurse-led clinic: 107; Usual care: 116). The mean time in therapeutic range and the proportion of INRs within the therapeutic range were similar in both groups. During 2.06 (IQR 1.01-2.94) years of follow-up, 64 (28.7%) patients changed to direct-acting oral anticoagulants. The proportion of switchers was higher in the nurse-led clinic (37.4%) than in the usual care group (20.7%) (P = .006) and these patients spent less time to switch (2.0 [IQR 0.7-2.9] vs 6.0 [IQR 3.7-11.2] years; P < .001). Importantly, the annual rate of ischaemic stroke/TIA was significantly lower in the nurse-led clinic (0.47%/year vs 3.88%/year, P = .016), without differences in safety endpoints. CONCLUSION: A nurse-led AF clinic may offer a "patient-centered" review and holistic follow-up, and it would be associated with a reduction of ischaemic stroke/TIA, without increasing bleeding complications. Further studies should confirm these results.

Refining Stroke and Bleeding Prediction in Atrial Fibrillation by Adding Consecutive Biomarkers to Clinical Risk Scores.

Background and Purpose- Current European guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation suggest using biomarkers to refine the risk stratification process. However, it is unclear whether ≥2 biomarkers incrementally improve risk prediction beyond 1 biomarker alone. We investigated whether the predictive performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores could be enhanced by incrementally adding consecutive different biomarkers in real-world atrial fibrillation patients taking vitamin K antagonists therapy. Methods- We included 940 atrial fibrillation patients stable on vitamin K antagonists (international normalized ratio, 2.0-3.0) for at least the previous 6 months. At inclusion, VWF (von Willebrand factor), high-sensitivity troponin T, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), high-sensitivity IL (interleukin)-6, fibrin monomers, and BTP (ß-trace protein) concentrations were quantified. During follow-up, all adverse events were recorded, and biomarkers were added to CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores depending on the C index. Results- During 6.5 (4.3-7.9) years, there were 98 ischemic strokes (1.60% per year) and 172 major bleeds (1.60% per year). After the addition of biomarkers, the predictive performance of CHA2DS2-VASc was not significantly increased, although the model with 3 biomarkers (ie, NT-proBNP+BTP+VWF) showed a low gain in sensitivity (integrated discrimination improvement, 2.70%; P<0.001). The predictive performance of HAS-BLED was enhanced in all biomarker-based models, with the best prediction shown by the model with 3 biomarkers (ie, VWF+NT-proBNP+high-sensitivity IL-6; C index, 0.600 [95% CI, 0.561-0.625] versus 0.639 [95% CI, 0.607-0.669]; P=0.025). This model also confirmed an increased sensitivity (integrated discrimination improvement, 5.20%; P<0.001) and positive reclassification (net reclassification improvement, 19.20%; P=0.020). Conclusions- By adding consecutive biomarkers, the predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc for ischemic stroke was not increased, whereas the predictive ability of HAS-BLED for major bleeding was only slightly enhanced. The net benefit and clinical usefulness of the biomarker-based models were marginal in comparison to the original scores based on clinical factors.

Increasing therapy-related myeloid neoplasms in multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Despite the longer survival achieved in multiple myeloma (MM) patients due to new therapy strategies, a concern is emerging regarding an increased risk of secondary primary malignancies (SPMs) and how to characterize those patients at risk. We performed a retrospective study covering a 28-year follow-up period (1991-2018) in a tertiary single institution. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data of 403 MM patients were recorded and compared with the epidemiologic register of the population area covered by our centre, calculating the standardize incidence ratio (SIR) for the different types of SPMs diagnosed in the MM cohort. Fine and Gray regression models were used to identify risk factors for SPMs. RESULTS: Out of the 403 MM patients, 23 (5.7%) developed SPMs: 13 therapy-related myeloid (TRM) malignancies (10 of them (77%) myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), 1 acute lymphoid leukaemia and 9 solid neoplasms. In the MM cohort, the relative risk of MDS was significantly higher than in the general population. Survival of patients with TRM malignancies was poor with a median of 4 months from the diagnosis, and most of them showed complex karyotype. Within the MM subset, multivariable analysis showed a higher risk of TRM malignancies in patients that previously received prolonged treatment with lenalidomide (>18 months). CONCLUSIONS: Though the improvement in MM outcome during the last decades is an unprecedented achievement, it has been accompanied by the rise in TRM malignancies with complex cytogenetic profile and poor prognosis that are in the need of an improved biologic and therapeutic approach.

MiR-146a Regulates Neutrophil Extracellular Trap Formation That Predicts Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

OBJECTIVE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients experience adverse cardiovascular events (ACEs) despite anticoagulant therapy. We reported that rs2431697 of miR-146a, a negative regulator of inflammation, predicts ACEs in patients with AF. The relationship between neutrophil extracellular traps and thrombogenesis is known. Thus, our aim was to evaluate the role of neutrophil extracellular trap compounds as prognostic markers of ACEs in AF and to study whether miR-146a affects NETosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We included 336 steadily anticoagulated AF patients with a median follow-up of 7.9 years (interquartile range, 7.3-8.1) and 127 healthy subjects. The reviewed ACEs included stroke (ischemic/embolic), acute coronary syndrome, acute heart failure, and global or vascular death. We quantified cell-free DNA and NE (neutrophil elastase) at diagnosis. Rs2431697 was genotyped. Neutrophils from human and mice were seeded to analyze shed cell-free DNA and H3cit (citrullinated histone 3) after activation. In human plasmas, higher NE levels (>55.29 ng/mL), but not cell-free DNA, were independently associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.36-3.68), cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 4.77; 95% CI, 1.11-20.47), and composite cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.01-3.76). In patients, NE levels were associated with rs2431697 (TT: 51.82±2.73 versus CC: 40.01±3.05 ng/mL; P=0.040). In vitro, both human (TT for rs2431697) and miR-146a-/- mice neutrophils yielded higher levels of cell-free DNA and H3cit than CC or wild-type cells, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: NE activity can provide new ACE prognostic information in AF patients. These findings provide evidence of a potential role of miR-146a in neutrophil extracellular trap generation and cardiovascular risk in AF.

Prediction of long-term net clinical outcomes using the TIMI-AF score: Comparison with CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED.

The TIMI-AF score was described to predict net clinical outcomes (NCOs) in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients receiving warfarin. However, this score derived from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial, and no external validation exists in real world clinical practice. We tested the long-term predictive performance of the TIMI-AF score in comparison with CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED in a 'real-world' cohort of anticoagulated AF patients. METHODS: We included 1156 consecutive AF patients stable on vitamin K antagonist (INR 2.0-3.0) during 6 months. The baseline risk of NCOs (composite of stroke, life-threatening bleeding, or all-cause mortality) was calculated using the novel TIMI-AF score. During follow-up, all NCOs were recorded and the predictive performance and clinical usefulness of TIMI-AF was compared with CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED. RESULTS: During 6.5 years (IQR 4.3-7.9), there were 563 NCOs (7.49%/year). 'Low-risk' (6.07%/year) and 'medium-risk' (9.49%/year) patients defined by the TIMI-AF suffered more endpoints that low- and medium-risk patients of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (2.37%/year and 4.40%/year for low risk; 3.48%/year and 6.39%/year for medium risk, respectively). The predictive performance of TIMI-AF was not different from CHA2DS2-VASc (0.678 vs 0.677, P = .963) or HAS-BLED (0.644 vs 0.671, P = .054). Discrimination and reclassification did not show improvement of prediction using the TIMI-AF score, and decision curves analysis did not demonstrate higher net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: In VKA-experienced AF patients, the TIMI-AF score has limited usefulness predicting NCOs over a long-term period of follow-up. This novel score was not superior to CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED identifying low-risk AF patients.

Pharmacogenetics of vitamin K antagonists and bleeding risk prediction in atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Polymorphisms in the vitamin K epoxide reductase complex 1 (VKORC1) and cytochrome P450 2C9 (CYP2C9) genes increase the bleeding risk in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. Here, we aimed to investigate whether VKORC1 and CYP2C9 polymorphisms improved the predictive performance for major bleeding using the HAS-BLED score. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We recruited 652 consecutive AF patients stable on vitamin K antagonist (INR 2.0-3.0) during at least the previous 6 months. A baseline venous blood sample was obtained for DNA extraction. We gave an extra point to the HAS-BLED score if the patient was a simultaneous carrier of the VKORC1 and CYP2C9 polymorphisms related to bleeding, and we called this modified score "GEN|HAS-BLED." During a median follow-up of 7.6 years (IQR 5.6-8.0), all major bleeding events were recorded. RESULTS: During follow-up, 106 (16.2%) patients experienced a major bleeding (2.81%/y; 42 intracranial haemorrhages and 44 gastrointestinal bleeding) and 24 (3.7%) died from major bleeding (0.48%/y). Cox regression analyses demonstrated a significant association between HAS-BLED or GEN|HAS-BLED and major bleeds, both as continuous or categorical scores. Comparison of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows that original HAS-BLED clinical score had better predictive ability than GEN|HAS-BLED (0.660, 95% CI 0.622-0.696 vs 0.645, 95% CI 0.607-0.682; P = .030). Discrimination and reclassification analyses showed that GEN|HAS-BLED did not improve sensitivity compared with the original score and even showed significant negative reclassification. CONCLUSION: Adding pharmacogenetic factors (ie polymorphisms of the VKORC1 and CYP2C9 genes) to the HAS-BLED score does not improve the prediction or discrimination performance for major bleeding.

Soluble Fibrin Monomer Complex and Prediction of Cardiovascular Events in Atrial Fibrillation: The Observational Murcia Atrial Fibrillation Project.

BACKGROUND: Soluble fibrin monomer complex (SFMC) is a biomarker of fibrin formation abnormally elevated in clinical situations of hypercoagulability. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association and predictive performance of SFMC for stroke, adverse cardiovascular events, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality in a cohort of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving vitamin K antagonist (VKA) anticoagulant therapy. DESIGN: During the second semester of 2007, we included 1226 AF outpatients stable on VKAs (INR 2.0-3.0) over a period of 6 months. SFMC levels were assessed at baseline. During 6.5 (IQR 4.4-8.0) years of follow-up, we recorded all ischemic strokes, adverse cardiovascular events (composite of stroke, acute heart failure, acute coronary syndrome and cardiovascular death), cardiovascular deaths and all-cause deaths. PARTICIPANTS: All patients were recruited consecutively. We excluded patients with rheumatic mitral valves, prosthetic heart valves, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, hemodynamic instability, hospital admissions or surgical interventions within the preceding 6 months. MAIN MEASURES: SFMC levels were measured in plasma by immunoturbidimetry in an automated coagulometer (STALiatestFM, Diagnostica Stago, Asnieres, France). KEY RESULTS: We recorded 121 (1.52%/year) ischemic strokes, 257 (3.23%/year) cardiovascular events, 67 (0.84%/year) cardiovascular deaths and 486 (6.10%/year) all-cause deaths. SFMC >12 µg/mL was not associated with stroke but was associated with higher risk of cardiovascular events (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.31-2.26), cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.30-3.57) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03-1.55). When SFMC >12 µg/mL was added to the CHA2DS2-VASc, there were significant improvements in predictive performance, sensitivity and reclassification for adverse cardiovascular events (c-index: 0.645 vs. 0.660, p = 0.010; IDI = 0.013, p < 0.001; NRI = 0.121, p < 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (c-index: 0.661 vs. 0.691, p = 0.006; IDI = 0.009, p = 0.049; NRI = 0.217, p < 0.001), but decision curves demonstrated a similar net benefit and clinical usefulness. CONCLUSIONS: In AF patients taking VKAs, high SFMC levels were associated with the risk of adverse cardiovascular events, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality. The addition of SFMC to the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved its predictive performance for these outcomes, but failed to show an improvement in clinical usefulness.

Quality of oral anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists in 'real-world' patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the prospective multicentre FANTASIIA registry.

Aims: The efficacy and safety of oral anticoagulation (OAC) using the vitamin K antagonists (VKA) are closely associated with the quality of anticoagulation, reflected by time in therapeutic range (TTR). The SAMe-TT2R2 is a risk score developed to predict the quality of anticoagulation control among VKA users. To analyse the quality of anticoagulation and its clinical determinants based on different methods in a prospective cohort of atrial fibrillation patients on VKA treatment participating in the multicentre Spanish observational registry FANTASIIA. Methods and results: Estimated TTR was calculated from Rosendaal, direct method, international normalized ratio variability, and NICE criteria. Time in therapeutic range values were compared for those patients with a SAMe-TT2R2 score 0-2 and >2. One thousand four hundred and seventy patients were analysed (56.4% male, mean age 74.1 ± 9.5 years). Mean TTR was 61.5 ± 25.1 with Rosendaal and 64.7 ± 24.2 with direct method. There was a high correlation between both methods (ρ = 0.805). The prevalence of poor anticoagulation control was 55%. Diabetes mellitus [odds ratio (OR) 1.38; P = 0.008], peripheral artery disease (PAD, OR 1.62; P = 0.048), and HAS-BLED (OR 1.13; P = 0.022) were independently associated with TTR < 70%. SAMe-TT2R2 score 0-2 had a higher mean TTR than patients with SAMe-TT2R2 >2 (P = 0.044), with a specificity of > 90% for predicting TTR < 70%. Patients with TTR < 70% had higher risk of events (21.7 vs. 16.8%; P = 0.021). Conclusion: In a multicentre prospective registry, 55% of AF patients had poor anticoagulation control with diabetes mellitus, PAD, and HAS-BLED being independently associated with TTR < 70%. A high SAMe-TT2R2 scores had a high specificity for predicting a TTR < 70% as an indicator of poor quality anticoagulation.

Comparison of the 2MACE and TIMI-AF Scores for Composite Clinical Outcomes in Anticoagulated Atrial Fibrillation Patients.

BACKGROUND: Two risk scores have been developed to predict composite outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF): the 2MACE and TIMI-AF scores. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive ability of these scores in 2 separate warfarin-treated cohorts (one 'real world', one clinical trial) of AF patients.Methods and Results:The 2MACE and TIMI-AF scores were calculated in the 'real-world' ATHERO-AF cohort (n=907), and in the randomized controlled AMADEUS trial (n=2,265). Endpoints were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), net clinical outcomes (NCO) and a combination of them, namely "clinically relevant events" (CREs). ROC curves showed similar predictive ability for MACE for 2MACE and TIMI-AF, in both the ATHERO-AF (0.698 vs. 0.688, respectively P=0.783) and AMADEUS (0.657 vs. 0.569, respectively P=0.057) cohorts. Similarly, the TIMI-AF showed a comparable c-index with 2MACE for NCOs in the ATHERO-AF (0.676 vs. 0.667, P=0.737), and AMADEUS (0.666 vs. 0.663, P=0.859) cohorts. No differences were found between the 2 scores for the prediction of CREs (0.675 vs. 0.684, P=0.740 in ATHERO-AF and 0.669 vs. 0.667, P=0.889 in AMADEUS for 2MACE and TIMI-AF, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the 2MACE and TIMI-AF scores had modest but significant predictive ability for composite outcomes in AF. The clinical usefulness of both scores was similar, but the 2MACE score may be simpler and easy to use.

Antiplatelet therapy combined with acenocoumarol in relation to major bleeding, ischaemic stroke and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Vascular disease is a frequent comorbidity in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, resulting in concomitant use of antiplatelet therapy. In the present study, we investigated the incidence and risk of major bleeding, ischaemic stroke, and mortality in a cohort of AF patients taking acenocoumarol plus antiplatelet therapy, in comparison with AF patients taking only acenocoumarol monotherapy. METHODS: We consecutively included 1361 "real-world" AF patients stable for at least the previous 6 months on acenocoumarol (INR 2.0-3.0). The primary endpoint was major bleeding defined using the 2005 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) criteria. As secondary endpoints, we analysed ischaemic strokes and all-cause mortality. During follow-up, all adverse events were recorded and compared within patients taking acenocoumarol plus antiplatelet therapy and patients taking only acenocoumarol. RESULTS: During 6.5 years (IQR 4.3-7.9) of follow-up, there were 250 (2.83%/year) bleeds, 130 (1.47%/year) ischaemic strokes and 511 (6.23%/year) deaths. After multivariate Cox regression analyses, combined antithrombotic therapy was associated with major bleeding (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.01-1.94; P = .048), but not lower mortality (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.75-1.21; P = .674) or ischaemic stroke (HR 1.45, 95% CI 0.97-2.17; P = .072). CONCLUSIONS: In AF patients, the risk of bleeding is higher when antiplatelet therapy is combined with acenocoumarol, but the risk of mortality and stroke was not significantly different from that of patients taking only acenocoumarol.

Von Willebrand factor is associated with atrial fibrillation development in ischaemic patients after cardiac surgery.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased morbidity and mortality after cardiac surgery. Von Willebrand factor (vWF) has been proposed as a biomarker of endothelial damage/dysfunction. We hypothesized that vWF levels could be used as valuable biomarker for AF occurrence after cardiac surgery. Moreover, we explored the potential association between vWF and tissue remodelling as possible implication in post-surgical AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively recruited 100 consecutive patients who undergoing programmed cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass and with no previous history of AF. Plasma vWF levels were determined from citrated plasma samples. Right atrial appendage tissue was obtained during cardiac surgery, and vWF expression as well as interstitial fibrosis was analysed by immunostaining and Masson's trichrome, respectively. We found raised vWF plasma levels in ischaemic vs. valvular patients (200.2 ± 66.3 vs. 157.2 ± 84.3 IU/dL; P = 0.015). Fibrosis degree was associated with plasma vWF levels. Plasma vWF was an independent prognostic marker for AF development in ischaemic patients [odds ratio, OR 6.44 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.40-36.57), P = 0.035]. CONCLUSION: Plasma vWF levels are associated with tissue fibrosis in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and with post-surgical AF development in ischaemic patients. These findings suggest an association among vWF levels, atrial remodelling, and AF development. It is supported by higher vWF expression in right atrial tissue in ischaemic patients, who developed post-surgical AF.

Long-Term Predictors of Thromboembolic Events in Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients Undergoing Electrical Cardioversion.

BACKGROUND: Patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) who undergo electrical cardioversion (ECV) tend to be younger and have less comorbidity. Long-term anticoagulation after ECV should be based on thromboembolic risk. We sought to study the long-term incidence of thromboembolic events (TE), factors related to TE and compare the predictive value of the CHADS2and CHA2DS2-VASc scores in this particular population. METHODS AND RESULTS: From January 2008 to June 2012, 571 ECV were performed in 406 consecutive patients with nonvalvular AF. Risk factors for TE and factors related to anticoagulation therapy after ECV were registered. During a follow-up of approximately 2 years, the annual incidence of TE was 1.9%. Factors associated with TE were: poor quality anticoagulation control (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.91; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10-7.80; P=0.03), cessation of anticoagulation after ECV (HR: 8.80; 95% CI: 3.11-25.10; P<0.001), age ≥65 years (HR: 13.65; 95% CI: 1.74-107.16; P=0.01), CHADS2score (HR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.10-2.29; P=0.01) and CHA2DS2-VASc score (HR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.30-2.22; P<0.001). Both risk scores predicted TE [c-statistic for CHADS2: 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62-0.74; P=0.005), for CHA2DS2-VASc: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.70-0.80; P<0.001)]. Based on c-statistics, the predictive accuracy of CHA2DS2-VASc was superior (difference between areas: 0.064±0.031; P=0.0403). CONCLUSIONS: Important determinants of long-term occurrence of TE after ECV were related to anticoagulant therapy (poor quality anticoagulation and cessation of this therapy over follow-up). The CHA2DS2-VASc score successfully predicts TE after ECV, having better predictive accuracy than the CHADS2score. (Circ J 2016; 80: 605-612).

Is the ORBIT Bleeding Risk Score Superior to the HAS-BLED Score in Anticoagulated Atrial Fibrillation Patients?

BACKGROUND: Several bleeding risk scores have been validated in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The ORBIT score has been recently proposed as a simple score with the best ability to predict major bleeding. The present study aimed to test the hypothesis that the ORBIT score was superior to the HAS-BLED score for predicting major bleeding and death in "real world" anticoagulated AF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed the predictive performance for bleeding and death of 406 AF patients who underwent 571 electrical cardioversion procedures and 1,276 patients with permanent/persistent AF from the FANTASIIA registry. In the cardioversion population, 21 patients had major bleeding events and 26 patients died. The predictive performance for major bleeding of HAS-BLED and ORBIT were not significantly different (c-statistics 0.77 (95% CI 0.66-0.88) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77-0.93), respectively; P=0.080). For the FANTASIIA population, 46 patients had major bleeding events and 50 patients died. The predictive performances for major bleeding of HAS-BLED and ORBIT were not significantly different (c-statistics 0.63 (95% CI 0.56-0.71) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.62-0.77), respectively; P=0.116). For death, the predictive performances of HAS-BLED and ORBIT were not significantly different in both populations. The ORBIT score categorized most patients as "low risk". CONCLUSIONS: Despite the original claims in its derivation paper, the ORBIT score was not superior to HAS-BLED for predicting major bleeding and death in a "real world" oral anticoagulated AF population. (Circ J 2016; 80: 2102-2108).