Risk of Subsequent Respiratory Virus Detection After Primary Virus Detection in a Community Household Study-King County, Washington, 2019-2021.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of respiratory viral infections is complex. How infection with one respiratory virus affects risk of subsequent infection with the same or another respiratory virus is not well described. METHODS: From October 2019 to June 2021, enrolled households completed active surveillance for acute respiratory illness (ARI), and participants with ARI self-collected nasal swab specimens; after April 2020, participants with ARI or laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and their household members self-collected nasal swab specimens. Specimens were tested using multiplex reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction for respiratory viruses. A Cox regression model with a time-dependent covariate examined risk of subsequent detections following a specific primary viral detection. RESULTS: Rhinovirus was the most frequently detected pathogen in study specimens (406 [9.5%]). Among 51 participants with multiple viral detections, rhinovirus to seasonal coronavirus (8 [14.8%]) was the most common viral detection pairing. Relative to no primary detection, there was a 1.03-2.06-fold increase in risk of subsequent virus detection in the 90 days after primary detection; risk varied by primary virus: human parainfluenza virus, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Primary virus detection was associated with higher risk of subsequent virus detection within the first 90 days after primary detection.

SARS-CoV-2 incidence, seroprevalence, and antibody dynamics in a rural, population-based cohort: March 2020 - July 2022.

Studies of SARS-CoV-2 incidence are important for response to continued transmission and future pandemics. We followed a rural community cohort with broad age representation with active surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 identification from November 2020 through July 2022. Participants provided serum specimens at regular intervals and following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. We estimated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection identified by study RT-PCR, electronic health record documentation or self-report of a positive test, or serology. We also estimated the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid antibodies measured by ELISA. Overall, 65% of the cohort had ≥1 SARS-CoV-2 infection by July 2022, and 19% of those with primary infection were reinfected. Infection and vaccination contributed to high seroprevalence, 98% (95% CI: 95%, 99%) of participants were spike or nucleocapsid seropositive at the end of follow-up. Among those seropositive, 82% were vaccinated. Participants were more likely to be seropositive to spike than nucleocapsid following infection. Infection among seropositive individuals could be identified by increases in nucleocapsid, but not spike, ELISA optical density values. Nucleocapsid antibodies waned more quickly after infection than spike antibodies. High levels of SARS-CoV-2 population immunity, as found in this study, are leading to changing epidemiology necessitating ongoing surveillance and policy evaluation.

Remote surveillance and detection of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among household members in King County, Washington.

BACKGROUND: Early during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was important to better understand transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Household contacts of infected individuals are particularly at risk for infection, but delays in contact tracing, delays in testing contacts, and isolation and quarantine posed challenges to accurately capturing secondary household cases. METHODS: In this study, 346 households in the Seattle region were provided with respiratory specimen collection kits and remotely monitored using web-based surveys for respiratory illness symptoms weekly between October 1, 2020, and June 20, 2021. Symptomatic participants collected respiratory specimens at symptom onset and mailed specimens to the central laboratory in Seattle. Specimens were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR with whole genome sequencing attempted when positive. SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals were notified, and their household contacts submitted specimens every 2 days for 14 days. RESULTS: In total, 1371 participants collected 2029 specimens that were tested; 16 individuals (1.2%) within 6 households tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the study period. Full genome sequences were generated from 11 individuals within 4 households. Very little genetic variation was found among SARS-CoV-2 viruses sequenced from different individuals in the same household, supporting transmission within the household. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates web-based surveillance of respiratory symptoms, combined with rapid and longitudinal specimen collection and remote contact tracing, provides a viable strategy to monitor households and detect household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. TRIAL REGISTRATION IDENTIFIER: NCT04141930, Date of registration 28/10/2019.

Association of Culturable-Virus Detection and Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, California and Tennessee, 2020-2022.

From 2 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) household transmission studies (enrolling April 2020 to January 2022) with rapid enrollment and specimen collection for 14 days, 61% (43/70) of primary cases had culturable virus detected ≥6 days post-onset. Risk of secondary infection among household contacts tended to be greater when primary cases had culturable virus detected after onset. Regardless of duration of culturable virus, most secondary infections (70%, 28/40) had serial intervals <6 days, suggesting early transmission. These data examine viral culture as a proxy for infectiousness, reaffirm the need for rapid control measures after infection, and highlight the potential for prolonged infectiousness (≥6 days) in many individuals.

Symptoms, viral loads, and rebound among COVID-19 outpatients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir compared to propensity score matched untreated individuals.

BACKGROUND: Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (N/R) reduces severe outcomes among patients with COVID-19; however, rebound after treatment has been reported. We compared symptom and viral dynamics in community-based individuals with COVID-19 who completed N/R and similar untreated individuals. METHODS: We identified symptomatic participants who tested SARS-CoV-2 positive and were N/R eligible from a COVID-19 household transmission study: index cases from ambulatory settings and their households were enrolled, collecting daily symptoms, medication use, and respiratory specimens for quantitative PCR for 10 days, March 2022-May 2023. Participants who completed N/R (treated) were propensity score matched to untreated participants. We compared symptom rebound, viral load (VL) rebound, average daily symptoms, and average daily VL by treatment status measured after N/R completion or, if untreated, seven days after symptom onset. RESULTS: Treated (n=130) and untreated participants (n=241) had similar baseline characteristics. After treatment completion, treated participants had greater occurrence of symptom rebound (32% vs 20%; p=0.009) and VL rebound (27% vs 7%; p<0.001). Average daily symptoms were lower among treated participants compared to untreated participants without symptom rebound (1.0 vs 1.6; p<0.01), but not statistically lower with symptom rebound (3.0 vs 3.4; p=0.5). Treated participants had lower average daily VLs without VL rebound (0.9 vs 2.6; p<0.01), but not statistically lower with VL rebound (4.8 vs 5.1; p=0.7). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who completed N/R experienced fewer symptoms and lower VL but were more likely to have rebound compared to untreated individuals. Providers should still prescribe N/R, when indicated, and communicate possible increased rebound risk to patients.

Interim Estimates of 2022-23 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness - Wisconsin, October 2022-February 2023.

In the United States, 2022-23 influenza activity began earlier than usual, increasing in October 2022, and has been associated with high rates of hospitalizations among children* (1). Influenza A(H3N2) represented most influenza viruses detected and subtyped during this period, but A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses cocirculated as well. Most viruses characterized were in the same genetic subclade as and antigenically similar to the viruses included in the 2022-23 Northern Hemisphere influenza vaccine (1,2). Effectiveness of influenza vaccine varies by season, influenza virus subtype, and antigenic match with circulating viruses. This interim report used data from two concurrent studies conducted at Marshfield Clinic Health System (MCHS) in Wisconsin during October 23, 2022-February 10, 2023, to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Overall, VE was 54% against medically attended outpatient acute respiratory illness (ARI) associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza A among patients aged 6 months-64 years. In a community cohort of children and adolescents aged <18 years, VE was 71% against symptomatic laboratory-confirmed influenza A virus infection. These interim analyses indicate that influenza vaccination substantially reduced the risk for medically attended influenza among persons aged <65 years and for symptomatic influenza in children and adolescents. Annual influenza vaccination is the best strategy for preventing influenza and its complications. CDC recommends that health care providers continue to administer annual influenza vaccine to persons aged ≥6 months as long as influenza viruses are circulating (2).

Early and Increased Influenza Activity Among Children - Tennessee, 2022-23 Influenza Season.

Influenza seasons typically begin in October and peak between December and February (1); however, the 2022-23 influenza season in Tennessee began in late September and was characterized by high pediatric hospitalization rates during November. This report describes a field investigation conducted in Tennessee during November 2022, following reports of increasing influenza hospitalizations. Data from surveillance networks, patient surveys, and whole genome sequencing of influenza virus specimens were analyzed to assess influenza activity and secondary illness risk. Influenza activity increased earlier than usual among all age groups, and rates of influenza-associated hospitalization among children were high in November, reaching 12.6 per 100,000 in children aged <5 years, comparable to peak levels typically seen in high-severity seasons. Circulating influenza viruses were genetically similar to vaccine components. Among persons who received testing for influenza at outpatient clinics, children were twice as likely to receive a positive influenza test result as were adults. Among household contacts exposed to someone with influenza, children were more than twice as likely to become ill compared with adults. As the influenza season continues, it is important for all persons, especially those at higher risk for severe disease, to protect themselves from influenza. To prevent influenza and severe influenza complications, all persons aged ≥6 months should get vaccinated, avoid contact with ill persons, and take influenza antivirals if recommended and prescribed.

Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated risk factors among staff and residents at homeless shelters in King County, Washington: an active surveillance study.

Homeless shelter residents and staff may be at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, SARS-CoV-2 infection estimates in this population have been reliant on cross-sectional or outbreak investigation data. We conducted routine surveillance and outbreak testing in 23 homeless shelters in King County, Washington, to estimate the occurrence of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk factors during 1 January 2020-31 May 2021. Symptom surveys and nasal swabs were collected for SARS-CoV-2 testing by RT-PCR for residents aged ≥3 months and staff. We collected 12,915 specimens from 2,930 unique participants. We identified 4.74 (95% CI 4.00-5.58) SARS-CoV-2 infections per 100 individuals (residents: 4.96, 95% CI 4.12-5.91; staff: 3.86, 95% CI 2.43-5.79). Most infections were asymptomatic at the time of detection (74%) and detected during routine surveillance (73%). Outbreak testing yielded higher test positivity than routine surveillance (2.7% versus 0.9%). Among those infected, residents were less likely to report symptoms than staff. Participants who were vaccinated against seasonal influenza and were current smokers had lower odds of having an infection detected. Active surveillance that includes SARS-CoV-2 testing of all persons is essential in ascertaining the true burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections among residents and staff of congregate settings.

Household Transmission of Influenza A Viruses in 2021-2022.

Importance: Influenza virus infections declined globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. Loss of natural immunity from lower rates of influenza infection and documented antigenic changes in circulating viruses may have resulted in increased susceptibility to influenza virus infection during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Objective: To compare the risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts of patients with influenza during the 2021-2022 influenza season with risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts during influenza seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective study of influenza transmission enrolled households in 2 states before the COVID-19 pandemic (2017-2020) and in 4 US states during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Primary cases were individuals with the earliest laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in a household. Household contacts were people living with the primary cases who self-collected nasal swabs daily for influenza molecular testing and completed symptom diaries daily for 5 to 10 days after enrollment. Exposures: Household contacts living with a primary case. Main Outcomes and Measures: Relative risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in household contacts during the 2021-2022 season compared with prepandemic seasons. Risk estimates were adjusted for age, vaccination status, frequency of interaction with the primary case, and household density. Subgroup analyses by age, vaccination status, and frequency of interaction with the primary case were also conducted. Results: During the prepandemic seasons, 152 primary cases (median age, 13 years; 3.9% Black; 52.0% female) and 353 household contacts (median age, 33 years; 2.8% Black; 54.1% female) were included and during the 2021-2022 influenza season, 84 primary cases (median age, 10 years; 13.1% Black; 52.4% female) and 186 household contacts (median age, 28.5 years; 14.0% Black; 63.4% female) were included in the analysis. During the prepandemic influenza seasons, 20.1% (71/353) of household contacts were infected with influenza A(H3N2) viruses compared with 50.0% (93/186) of household contacts in 2021-2022. The adjusted relative risk of A(H3N2) virus infection in 2021-2022 was 2.31 (95% CI, 1.86-2.86) compared with prepandemic seasons. Conclusions and Relevance: Among cohorts in 5 US states, there was a significantly increased risk of household transmission of influenza A(H3N2) in 2021-2022 compared with prepandemic seasons. Additional research is needed to understand reasons for this association.

SARS-CoV-2 Virus Dynamics in Recently Infected People-Data From a Household Transmission Study.

We used daily real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) results from 67 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a household transmission study, conducted April 2020-May 2021, to examine the trajectory of cycle threshold (Ct) values, an inverse correlate of viral RNA concentration. Ct values varied across RT-PCR platforms and by participant age. Specimens collected from children and adolescents had higher Ct values and adults aged ≥50 years showed lower Ct values than adults aged 18-49 years. Ct values were lower on days when participants reported experiencing symptoms, with the lowest Ct value occurring 2-6 days after symptom onset.

The Clinical and Genomic Epidemiology of Rhinovirus in Homeless Shelters-King County, Washington.

BACKGROUND: Rhinovirus (RV) is a common cause of respiratory illness in all people, including those experiencing homelessness. RV epidemiology in homeless shelters is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed data from a cross-sectional homeless shelter study in King County, Washington, October 2019-May 2021. Shelter residents or guardians aged ≥3 months reporting acute respiratory illness completed questionnaires and submitted nasal swabs. After 1 April 2020, enrollment expanded to residents and staff regardless of symptoms. Samples were tested by multiplex RT-PCR for respiratory viruses. A subset of RV-positive samples was sequenced. RESULTS: There were 1066 RV-positive samples with RV present every month of the study period. RV was the most common virus before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (43% and 77% of virus-positive samples, respectively). Participants from family shelters had the highest prevalence of RV. Among 131 sequenced samples, 33 RV serotypes were identified with each serotype detected for ≤4 months. CONCLUSIONS: RV infections persisted through community mitigation measures and were most prevalent in shelters housing families. Sequencing showed a diversity of circulating RV serotypes, each detected over short periods of time. Community-based surveillance in congregate settings is important to characterize respiratory viral infections during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04141917.

Surveillance and Correlation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Viral RNA, Antigen, Virus Isolation, and Self-Reported Symptoms in a Longitudinal Study With Daily Sampling.

The novel coronavirus pandemic incited unprecedented demand for assays that detect viral nucleic acids, viral proteins, and corresponding antibodies. The 320 molecular diagnostics in receipt of US Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization mainly focus on viral detection; however, no currently approved test can be used to infer infectiousness, that is, the presence of replicable virus. As the number of tests conducted increased, persistent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA positivity by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in some individuals led to concerns over quarantine guidelines. To this end, we attempted to design an assay that reduces the frequency of positive test results from individuals who do not shed culturable virus. We describe multiplex quantitative RT-PCR assays that detect genomic RNA (gRNA) and subgenomic RNA (sgRNA) species of SARS-CoV-2, including spike, nucleocapsid, membrane, envelope, and ORF8. Viral RNA abundances calculated from these assays were compared with antigen presence, self-reported symptoms, and culture outcome (virus isolation) using samples from a 14-day longitudinal household transmission study. By characterizing the clinical and molecular dynamics of infection, we show that sgRNA detection has higher predictive value for culture outcome compared to detection of gRNA alone. Our findings suggest that sgRNA presence correlates with active infection and may help identify individuals shedding culturable virus.

Epidemiology, Clinical Characteristics, and Outcomes of Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations in US Children Over 9 Seasons Following the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Recent population-based data are limited regarding influenza-associated hospitalizations in US children. METHODS: We identified children <18 years hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza during 2010-2019 seasons, through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network. Adjusted hospitalization and in-hospital mortality rates were calculated, and multivariable logistic regression was conducted to evaluate risk factors for pneumonia, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and death. RESULTS: Over 9 seasons, adjusted influenza-associated hospitalization incidence rates ranged from 10 to 375 per 100 000 persons each season and were highest among infants <6 months old. Rates decreased with increasing age. The highest in-hospital mortality rates were observed in children <6 months old (0.73 per 100 000 persons). Over time, antiviral treatment significantly increased, from 56% to 85% (P < .001), and influenza vaccination rates increased from 33% to 44% (P = .003). Among the 13 235 hospitalized children, 2676 (20%) were admitted to the ICU, 2262 (17%) had pneumonia, 690 (5%) required mechanical ventilation, and 72 (0.5%) died during hospitalization. Compared with those <6 months of age, hospitalized children ≥13 years old had higher odds of pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio, 2.7 [95% confidence interval, 2.1-3.4], ICU admission (1.6 [1.3-1.9]), mechanical ventilation (1.6 [1.1-2.2]), and death (3.3 [1.2-9.3]). CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization and death rates were greatest in younger children at the population level. Among hospitalized children, however, older children had a higher risk of severe outcomes. Continued efforts to prevent and attenuate influenza in children are needed.

Magnitude and Determinants of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Household Transmission: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Households have emerged as important venues for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Little is known, however, regarding the magnitude and determinants of household transmission in increasingly vaccinated populations. METHODS: From September 2020 to January 2022, symptomatic nonhospitalized individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection by RNA detection were identified within 5 days of symptom onset; all individuals resided with at least 1 other SARS-CoV-2-uninfected household member. These infected persons (cases) and their household members (contacts) were subsequently followed with questionnaire-based measurement and serial nasal specimen collection. The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection among contacts. RESULTS: We evaluated 42 cases and their 74 household contacts. Among the contacts, 32 (43%) became infected, of whom 5 (16%) were asymptomatic; 81% of transmissions occurred by 5 days after the case's symptom onset. From 21 unvaccinated cases, 14-day cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among contacts was 18/40 (45% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 29%-62%]), most of whom were unvaccinated. From 21 vaccinated cases, 14-day cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 14/34 (41% [95% CI, 25%-59%]) among all contacts and 12/29 (41% [95% CI, 24%-61%]) among vaccinated contacts. At least 1 comorbid condition among cases and 10 or more days of RNA detection in cases were associated with increased risk of infection among contacts. CONCLUSIONS: Among households including individuals with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, both vaccinated-to-vaccinated and unvaccinated-to-unvaccinated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts was common. Because vaccination alone did not notably reduce risk of infection, household contacts will need to employ additional interventions to avoid infection.

Human Parainfluenza Virus in Homeless Shelters before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Washington, USA.

To determine the epidemiology of human parainfluenza virus in homeless shelters during the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyzed data and sequences from respiratory specimens collected in 23 shelters in Washington, USA, during 2019-2021. Two clusters in children were genetically similar by shelter of origin. Shelter-specific interventions are needed to reduce these infections.

First known person-to-person transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), first detected in China in December, 2019. In January, 2020, state, local, and federal public health agencies investigated the first case of COVID-19 in Illinois, USA. METHODS: Patients with confirmed COVID-19 were defined as those with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Contacts were people with exposure to a patient with COVID-19 on or after the patient's symptom onset date. Contacts underwent active symptom monitoring for 14 days following their last exposure. Contacts who developed fever, cough, or shortness of breath became persons under investigation and were tested for SARS-CoV-2. A convenience sample of 32 asymptomatic health-care personnel contacts were also tested. FINDINGS: Patient 1-a woman in her 60s-returned from China in mid-January, 2020. One week later, she was hospitalised with pneumonia and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Her husband (Patient 2) did not travel but had frequent close contact with his wife. He was admitted 8 days later and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 372 contacts of both cases were identified; 347 underwent active symptom monitoring, including 152 community contacts and 195 health-care personnel. Of monitored contacts, 43 became persons under investigation, in addition to Patient 2. These 43 persons under investigation and all 32 asymptomatic health-care personnel tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. INTERPRETATION: Person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 occurred between two people with prolonged, unprotected exposure while Patient 1 was symptomatic. Despite active symptom monitoring and testing of symptomatic and some asymptomatic contacts, no further transmission was detected. FUNDING: None.

Implications of Shortened Quarantine Among Household Contacts of Index Patients with Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Infection - Tennessee and Wisconsin, April-September 2020.

To prevent further transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), CDC currently recommends that persons who have been in close contact with someone with SARS-CoV-2 infection should quarantine (stay away from other persons) for 14 days after the last known contact.* However, quarantine might be difficult to maintain for a prolonged period. A shorter quarantine might improve compliance, and CDC recommends two options to reduce the duration of quarantine for close contacts without symptoms, based on local circumstances and availability of testing: 1) quarantine can end on day 10 without a test or 2) quarantine can end on day 7 after receiving a negative test result.† However, shorter quarantine might permit ongoing disease transmission from persons who develop symptoms or become infectious near the end of the recommended 14-day period. Interim data from an ongoing study of household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed to understand the proportion of household contacts that had detectable virus after a shortened quarantine period. Persons who were household contacts of index patients completed a daily symptom diary and self-collected respiratory specimens for 14 days. Specimens were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Among 185 household contacts enrolled, 109 (59%) had detectable SARS-CoV-2 at any time; 76% (83/109) of test results were positive within 7 days, and 86% (94 of 109) were positive within 10 days after the index patient's illness onset date. Among household contacts who received negative SARS-CoV-2 test results and were asymptomatic through day 7, there was an 81% chance (95% confidence interval [CI] = 67%-90%) of remaining asymptomatic and receiving negative RT-PCR test results through day 14; this increased to 93% (95% CI = 78%-98%) for household members who were asymptomatic with negative RT-PCR test results through day 10. Although SARS-CoV-2 quarantine periods shorter than 14 days might be easier to adhere to, there is a potential for onward transmission from household contacts released before day 14.

Acute Cardiovascular Events Associated With Influenza in Hospitalized Adults : A Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Influenza may contribute to the burden of acute cardiovascular events during annual influenza epidemics. OBJECTIVE: To examine acute cardiovascular events and determine risk factors for acute heart failure (aHF) and acute ischemic heart disease (aIHD) in adults with a hospitalization associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: U.S. Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network during the 2010-to-2011 through 2017-to-2018 influenza seasons. PARTICIPANTS: Adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza and identified through influenza testing ordered by a practitioner. MEASUREMENTS: Acute cardiovascular events were ascertained using discharge codes from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification, and ICD, 10th Revision. Age, sex, race/ethnicity, tobacco use, chronic conditions, influenza vaccination, influenza antiviral medication, and influenza type or subtype were included as exposures in logistic regression models, and marginal adjusted risk ratios and 95% CIs were estimated to describe factors associated with aHF or aIHD. RESULTS: Among 89 999 adults with laboratory-confirmed influenza, 80 261 had complete medical record abstractions and available ICD codes (median age, 69 years [interquartile range, 54 to 81 years]) and 11.7% had an acute cardiovascular event. The most common such events (non-mutually exclusive) were aHF (6.2%) and aIHD (5.7%). Older age, tobacco use, underlying cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and renal disease were significantly associated with higher risk for aHF and aIHD in adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza. LIMITATION: Underdetection of cases was likely because influenza testing was based on practitioner orders. Acute cardiovascular events were identified by ICD discharge codes and may be subject to misclassification bias. CONCLUSION: In this population-based study of adults hospitalized with influenza, almost 12% of patients had an acute cardiovascular event. Clinicians should ensure high rates of influenza vaccination, especially in those with underlying chronic conditions, to protect against acute cardiovascular events associated with influenza. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Projected Population Benefit of Increased Effectiveness and Coverage of Influenza Vaccination on Influenza Burden in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination is the best way to prevent influenza; however, greater benefits could be achieved. To help guide research and policy agendas, we aimed to quantify the magnitude of influenza disease that would be prevented through targeted increases in vaccine effectiveness (VE) or vaccine coverage (VC). METHODS: For 3 influenza seasons (2011-12, 2015-16, and 2017-18), we used a mathematical model to estimate the number of prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medically attended illnesses, and hospitalizations across 5 age groups. Compared with estimates of prevented illness during each season, given observed VE and VC, we explored the number of additional outcomes that would have been prevented from a 5% absolute increase in VE or VC or from achieving 60% VE or 70% VC. RESULTS: During the 2017-18 season, compared with the burden already prevented by influenza vaccination, a 5% absolute VE increase would have prevented an additional 1 050 000 illnesses and 25 000 hospitalizations (76% among those aged ≥65 years), while achieving 60% VE would have prevented an additional 190 000 hospitalizations. A 5% VC increase would have resulted in 785 000 fewer illnesses (56% among those aged 18-64 years) and 11 000 fewer hospitalizations; reaching 70% would have prevented an additional 39 000 hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: Small, attainable improvements in effectiveness or VC of the influenza vaccine could lead to substantial additional reductions in the influenza burden in the United States. Improvements in VE would have the greatest impact in reducing hospitalizations in adults aged ≥65 years, and VC improvements would have the largest benefit in reducing illnesses in adults aged 18-49 years.

Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States During the 2018-2019 Influenza Season.

BACKGROUND: Multivalent influenza vaccine products provide protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B lineage viruses. The 2018-2019 influenza season in the United States included prolonged circulation of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses well-matched to the vaccine strain and A(H3N2) viruses, the majority of which were mismatched to the vaccine. We estimated the number of vaccine-prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths for the season. METHODS: We used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of influenza-associated outcomes prevented by vaccination in the United States. The model incorporated age-specific estimates of national 2018-2019 influenza vaccine coverage, influenza virus-specific vaccine effectiveness from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, and disease burden estimated from population-based rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network. RESULTS: Influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million (95%UI, 3.4 million-7.1 million) illnesses, 2.3 million (95%UI, 1.8 million-3.8 million) medical visits, 58 000 (95%UI, 30 000-156 000) hospitalizations, and 3500 (95%UI, 1000-13 000) deaths due to influenza viruses during the US 2018-2019 influenza season. Vaccination prevented 14% of projected hospitalizations associated with A(H1N1)pdm09 overall and 43% among children aged 6 months-4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination averted substantial influenza-associated disease including hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, primarily due to effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09. Our findings underscore the value of influenza vaccination, highlighting that vaccines measurably decrease illness and associated healthcare utilization even in a season in which a vaccine component does not match to a circulating virus.