Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia.

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering ∼ 10(7) km(2). We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997-1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001-2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997-1998 and the strongest El Niño episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2-5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic Niño Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia.

Reconstruction of 60 Years of Chikungunya Epidemiology in the Philippines Demonstrates Episodic and Focal Transmission.

Proper understanding of the long-term epidemiology of chikungunya has been hampered by poor surveillance. Outbreak years are unpredictable and cases often misdiagnosed. Here we analyzed age-specific data from 2 serological studies (from 1973 and 2012) in Cebu, Philippines, to reconstruct both the annual probability of infection and population-level immunity over a 60-year period (1952-2012). We also explored whether seroconversions during 2012-2013 were spatially clustered. Our models identified 4 discrete outbreaks separated by an average delay of 17 years. On average, 23% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16%-37%) of the susceptible population was infected per outbreak, with >50% of the entire population remaining susceptible at any point. Participants who seroconverted during 2012-2013 were clustered at distances of <230 m, suggesting focal transmission. Large-scale outbreaks of chikungunya did not result in sustained multiyear transmission. Nevertheless, we estimate that >350 000 infections were missed by surveillance systems. Serological studies could supplement surveillance to provide important insights on pathogen circulation.

Epidemiology of Japanese encephalitis in the Philippines: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is an important cause of encephalitis in most of Asia, with high case fatality rates and often significant neurologic sequelae among survivors. The epidemiology of JE in the Philippines is not well defined. To support consideration of JE vaccine for introduction into the national schedule in the Philippines, we conducted a systematic literature review and summarized JE surveillance data from 2011 to 2014. METHODS: We conducted searches on Japanese encephalitis and the Philippines in four databases and one library. Data from acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) and JE surveillance and from the national reference laboratory from January 2011 to March 2014 were tabulated and mapped. RESULTS: We identified 29 published reports and presentations on JE in the Philippines, including 5 serologic surveys, 18 reports of clinical cases, and 8 animal studies (including two with both clinical cases and animal data). The 18 clinical studies reported 257 cases of laboratory-confirmed JE from 1972 to 2013. JE virus (JEV) was the causative agent in 7% to 18% of cases of clinical meningitis and encephalitis combined, and 16% to 40% of clinical encephalitis cases. JE predominantly affected children under 15 years of age and 6% to 7% of cases resulted in death. Surveillance data from January 2011 to March 2014 identified 73 (15%) laboratory-confirmed JE cases out of 497 cases tested. SUMMARY: This comprehensive review demonstrates the endemicity and extensive geographic range of JE in the Philippines, and supports the use of JE vaccine in the country. Continued and improved surveillance with laboratory confirmation is needed to systematically quantify the burden of JE, to provide information that can guide prioritization of high risk areas in the country and determination of appropriate age and schedule of vaccine introduction, and to measure the impact of preventive measures including immunization against this important public health threat.

High rate of subclinical chikungunya virus infection and association of neutralizing antibody with protection in a prospective cohort in the Philippines.

BACKGROUND: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a globally re-emerging arbovirus for which previous studies have indicated the majority of infections result in symptomatic febrile illness. We sought to characterize the proportion of subclinical and symptomatic CHIKV infections in a prospective cohort study in a country with known CHIKV circulation. METHODS/FINDINGS: A prospective longitudinal cohort of subjects ≥6 months old underwent community-based active surveillance for acute febrile illness in Cebu City, Philippines from 2012-13. Subjects with fever history were clinically evaluated at acute, 2, 5, and 8 day visits, and at a 3-week convalescent visit. Blood was collected at the acute and 3-week convalescent visits. Symptomatic CHIKV infections were identified by positive CHIKV PCR in acute blood samples and/or CHIKV IgM/IgG ELISA seroconversion in paired acute/convalescent samples. Enrollment and 12-month blood samples underwent plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) using CHIKV attenuated strain 181/clone25. Subclinical CHIKV infections were identified by ≥8-fold rise from a baseline enrollment PRNT titer <10 without symptomatic infection detected during the intervening surveillance period. Selected CHIKV PCR-positive samples underwent viral isolation and envelope protein-1 gene sequencing. Of 853 subjects who completed all study procedures at 12 months, 19 symptomatic infections (2.19 per 100 person-years) and 87 subclinical infections (10.03 per 100 person-years) occurred. The ratio of subclinical-to-symptomatic infections was 4.6:1 varying with age from 2:1 in 6 month-5 year olds to 12:1 in those >50 years old. Baseline CHIKV PRNT titer ≥10 was associated with 100% (95%CI: 46.1, 100.0) protection from symptomatic CHIKV infection. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated Asian genotype closely related to strains from Asia and the Caribbean. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical infections accounted for a majority of total CHIKV infections. A positive baseline CHIKV PRNT titer was associated with protection from symptomatic CHIKV infection. These findings have implications for assessing disease burden, understanding virus transmission, and supporting vaccine development.

Epidemiology of dengue disease in the Philippines (2000-2011): a systematic literature review.

This literature analysis describes the available dengue epidemiology data in the Philippines between 2000 and 2011. Of 253 relevant data sources identified, 34, including additional epidemiology data provided by the National Epidemiology Center, Department of Health, Philippines, were reviewed. There were 14 publications in peer reviewed journals, and 17 surveillance reports/sources, which provided variable information from the passive reporting system and show broad trends in dengue incidence, including age group predominance and disease severity. The peer reviewed studies focused on clinical severity of cases, some revealed data on circulating serotypes and genotypes and on the seroepidemiology of dengue including incidence rates for infection and apparent disease. Gaps in the data were identified, and include the absence incidence rates stratified by age, dengue serotype and genotype distribution, disease severity data, sex distribution data, and seroprevalence data.

Prediction of high incidence of dengue in the Philippines.

BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines. METHODS: Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F3 measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation. CONCLUSIONS: This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity.

The role of disease surveillance in achieving IHR compliance by 2012.

The World Health Organization's revised International Health Regulations (IHR (2005)) call for member state compliance by mid-2012. Variation in disease surveillance and core public health capacities will affect each member state's ability to meet this deadline. We report on topics presented at the preconference workshop, "The Interaction of Disease Surveillance and the International Health Regulations," held at the 2010 International Society for Disease Surveillance conference in Park City, Utah. Presenters were from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, U.S. Naval Research Unit Six, the Philippines' National Epidemiologic Center, and the French armed forces. The topics addressed were: an overview of the revised IHRs; disease surveillance systems implemented in Peru, the Philippines, and by the French armed forces; the capacity building efforts of the CDC; partnerships and contributions to IHR compliance from HHS; and the application of the IHRs to special populations. Results from the meeting evaluation indicate that many participants found the information useful in better understanding current efforts of the U.S. government and international organizations, areas for collaboration, and how the IHRs apply to their countries' public health systems. Topics to address at future workshops include progress and challenges to IHR implementation across all member states and additional examples of how disease surveillance supports the IHRs in resource-constrained countries. The preconference workshop provided the opportunity to convene public health experts from all regions of the world. Stronger collaborations and support to better detect and respond to public health events through building sustainable disease surveillance systems will not only help member states to meet IHR compliance by 2012, but will also improve pandemic preparedness and global health security.