Development and Validation of a Natural Language Processing Model to Identify Low-Risk Pulmonary Embolism in Real Time to Facilitate Safe Outpatient Management.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to (1) develop and validate a natural language processing model to identify the presence of pulmonary embolism (PE) based on real-time radiology reports and (2) identify low-risk PE patients based on previously validated risk stratification scores using variables extracted from the electronic health record at the time of diagnosis. The combination of these approaches yielded an natural language processing-based clinical decision support tool that can identify patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with low-risk PE as candidates for outpatient management. METHODS: Data were curated from all patients who received a PE-protocol computed tomography pulmonary angiogram (PE-CTPA) imaging study in the ED of a 3-hospital academic health system between June 1, 2018 and December 31, 2020 (n=12,183). The "preliminary" radiology reports from these imaging studies made available to ED clinicians at the time of diagnosis were adjudicated as positive or negative for PE by the clinical team. The reports were then divided into development, internal validation, and temporal validation cohorts in order to train, test, and validate an natural language processing model that could identify the presence of PE based on unstructured text. For risk stratification, patient- and encounter-level data elements were curated from the electronic health record and used to compute a real-time simplified pulmonary embolism severity (sPESI) score at the time of diagnosis. Chart abstraction was performed on all low-risk PE patients admitted for inpatient management. RESULTS: When applied to the internal validation and temporal validation cohorts, the natural language processing model identified the presence of PE from radiology reports with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.99, sensitivity of 0.86 to 0.87, and specificity of 0.99. Across cohorts, 10.5% of PE-CTPA studies were positive for PE, of which 22.2% were classified as low-risk by the sPESI score. Of all low-risk PE patients, 74.3% were admitted for inpatient management. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that a natural language processing-based model utilizing real-time radiology reports can accurately identify patients with PE. Further, this model, used in combination with a validated risk stratification score (sPESI), provides a clinical decision support tool that accurately identifies patients in the ED with low-risk PE as candidates for outpatient management.

Development of a Human Immunodeficiency Virus Risk Prediction Model Using Electronic Health Record Data From an Academic Health System in the Southern United States.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is underutilized in the southern United States. Rapid identification of individuals vulnerable to diagnosis of HIV using electronic health record (EHR)-based tools may augment PrEP uptake in the region. METHODS: Using machine learning, we developed EHR-based models to predict incident HIV diagnosis as a surrogate for PrEP candidacy. We included patients from a southern medical system with encounters between October 2014 and August 2016, training the model to predict incident HIV diagnosis between September 2016 and August 2018. We obtained 74 EHR variables as potential predictors. We compared Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) versus least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression models, and assessed performance, overall and among women, using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under precision recall curve (AUPRC). RESULTS: Of 998 787 eligible patients, 162 had an incident HIV diagnosis, of whom 49 were women. The XGBoost model outperformed the LASSO model for the total cohort, achieving an AUROC of 0.89 and AUPRC of 0.01. The female-only cohort XGBoost model resulted in an AUROC of 0.78 and AUPRC of 0.00025. The most predictive variables for the overall cohort were race, sex, and male partner. The strongest positive predictors for the female-only cohort were history of pelvic inflammatory disease, drug use, and tobacco use. CONCLUSIONS: Our machine-learning models were able to effectively predict incident HIV diagnoses including among women. This study establishes feasibility of using these models to identify persons most suitable for PrEP in the South.

Risk of in-hospital Deterioration for Children with Single Ventricle Physiology.

Children with single ventricle physiology (SV) are at high risk of in-hospital morbidity and mortality. Identifying children at risk for deterioration may allow for earlier escalation of care and subsequently decreased mortality.We conducted a retrospective chart review of all admissions to the pediatric cardiology non-ICU service from 2014 to 2018 for children < 18 years old. We defined clinical deterioration as unplanned transfer to the ICU or inpatient mortality. We selected children with SV by diagnosis codes and defined infants as children < 1 year old. We compared demographic, vital sign, and lab values between infants with and without a deterioration event. We evaluated vital sign and medical therapy changes before deterioration events.Among infants with SV (129 deterioration events over 225 admissions, overall 25% with hypoplastic left heart syndrome), those who deteriorated were younger (p = 0.001), had lower baseline oxygen saturation (p = 0.022), and higher baseline respiratory rate (p = 0.022), heart rate (p = 0.023), and hematocrit (p = 0.008). Median Duke Pediatric Early Warning Score increased prior to deterioration (p < 0.001). Deterioration was associated with administration of additional oxygen support (p = 0.012), a fluid bolus (p < 0.001), antibiotics (p < 0.001), vasopressor support (p = 0.009), and red blood cell transfusion (p < 0.001).Infants with SV are at high risk for deterioration. Integrating baseline and dynamic patient data from the electronic health record to identify the highest risk patients may allow for earlier detection and intervention to prevent clinical deterioration.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus During the COVID-19 Pandemic Compared to Historic Levels: A Retrospective Cohort Study of a Health System.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance in 2020-2021 showed that seasonal respiratory illnesses were below levels seen during prior seasons, with the exception of interseasonal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). METHODS: Electronic health record data of infants aged <1 year visiting the Duke University Health System from 4 October 2015 to 28 March 2020 (pre-COVID-19) and 29 March 2020 to 30 October 2021 (COVID-19) were assessed. International Classification of Diseases-Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes for RSV (B97.4, J12.1, J20.5, J21.0) and bronchiolitis (RSV codes plus J21.8, J21.9) were used to detail encounters in the inpatient (IP), emergency department (ED), outpatient (OP), urgent care (UC), and telemedicine (TM) settings. RESULTS: Pre-COVID-19, 88% of RSV and 92% of bronchiolitis encounters were seen in ambulatory settings. During COVID-19, 94% and 93%, respectively, occurred in ambulatory settings. Pre-COVID-19, the highest RSV proportion was observed in December-January (up to 38% in ED), while the peaks during COVID-19 were seen in July-September (up to 41% in ED) across all settings. RSV laboratory testing among RSV encounters was low during pre-COVID-19 (IP, 51%; ED, 51%; OP, 41%; UC, 84%) and COVID-19 outside of UC (IP, 33%; ED, 47%; OP, 47%; UC, 87%). Full-term, otherwise healthy infants comprised most RSV encounters (pre-COVID-19, up to 57% in OP; COVID-19, up to 82% in TM). CONCLUSIONS: With the interruption of historical RSV epidemiologic trends and the emergence of interseasonal disease during COVID-19, continued monitoring of RSV is warranted across all settings as the changing RSV epidemiology could affect the distribution of health care resources and public health policy.

Social determinants of health data in solid organ transplantation: National data sources and future directions.

Health equity research in transplantation has largely relied on national data sources, yet the availability of social determinants of health (SDOH) data varies widely among these sources. We sought to characterize the extent to which national data sources contain SDOH data applicable to end-stage organ disease (ESOD) and transplant patients. We reviewed 10 active national data sources based in the United States. For each data source, we examined patient inclusion criteria and explored strengths and limitations regarding SDOH data, using the National Institutes of Health PhenX toolkit of SDOH as a data collection instrument. Of the 28 SDOH variables reviewed, eight-core demographic variables were included in ≥80% of the data sources, and seven variables that described elements of social status ranged between 30 and 60% inclusion. Variables regarding identity, healthcare access, and social need were poorly represented (≤20%) across the data sources, and five of these variables were included in none of the data sources. The results of our review highlight the need for improved SDOH data collection systems in ESOD and transplant patients via: enhanced inter-registry collaboration, incorporation of standardized SDOH variables into existing data sources, and transplant center and consortium-based investigation and innovation.

Assessment of Practices Affecting Racial and Ethnic COVID-19 Vaccination Equity in 10 Large US Cities.

CONTEXT: In the United States, COVID-19 vaccines have been unequally distributed between different racial and ethnic groups. Public reporting of race and ethnicity data for COVID-19 vaccination has the potential to help guide public health responses aimed at promoting vaccination equity. However, there is evidence that such data are not readily available. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess gaps and discrepancies in COVID-19 vaccination reporting in 10 large US cities in July 2021. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: For the 10 cities selected, we collected COVID-19 vaccination and population data using publicly available resources, such as state health department Web sites and the US Census Bureau American Community Survey. We examined vaccination plans and news sources to identify initial proposals and evidence of implementation of COVID-19 vaccination best practices. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: We performed quantitative assessment of associations of the number of vaccination best practices implemented with COVID-19 racial and ethnic vaccination equity. We additionally assessed gaps and discrepancies in COVID-19 vaccination reporting between states. RESULTS: Our analysis did not show that COVID-19 vaccination inequity was associated with the number of vaccination best practices implemented. However, gaps and variation in reporting of racial and ethnic demographic vaccination data inhibited our ability to effectively assess whether vaccination programs were reaching minority populations. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of consistent public reporting and transparency of COVID-19 vaccination data has likely hindered public health responses by impeding the ability to track the effectiveness of strategies that target vaccine equity.

Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models to Predict Admission From Emergency Department to Inpatient and Intensive Care Units.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop and validate 2 machine learning models that use historical and current-visit patient data from electronic health records to predict the probability of patient admission to either an inpatient unit or ICU at each hour (up to 24 hours) of an emergency department (ED) encounter. The secondary goal was to provide a framework for the operational implementation of these machine learning models. METHODS: Data were curated from 468,167 adult patient encounters in 3 EDs (1 academic and 2 community-based EDs) of a large academic health system from August 1, 2015, to October 31, 2018. The models were validated using encounter data from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2019. An operational user dashboard was developed, and the models were run on real-time encounter data. RESULTS: For the intermediate admission model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.873 and the area under the precision-recall curve was 0.636. For the ICU admission model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.951 and the area under the precision-recall curve was 0.461. The models had similar performance in both the academic- and community-based settings as well as across the 2019 and real-time encounter data. CONCLUSION: Machine learning models were developed to accurately make predictions regarding the probability of inpatient or ICU admission throughout the entire duration of a patient's encounter in ED and not just at the time of triage. These models remained accurate for a patient cohort beyond the time period of the initial training data and were integrated to run on live electronic health record data, with similar performance.

Integrating a Machine Learning System Into Clinical Workflows: Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning models have the potential to improve diagnostic accuracy and management of acute conditions. Despite growing efforts to evaluate and validate such models, little is known about how to best translate and implement these products as part of routine clinical care. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore the factors influencing the integration of a machine learning sepsis early warning system (Sepsis Watch) into clinical workflows. METHODS: We conducted semistructured interviews with 15 frontline emergency department physicians and rapid response team nurses who participated in the Sepsis Watch quality improvement initiative. Interviews were audio recorded and transcribed. We used a modified grounded theory approach to identify key themes and analyze qualitative data. RESULTS: A total of 3 dominant themes emerged: perceived utility and trust, implementation of Sepsis Watch processes, and workforce considerations. Participants described their unfamiliarity with machine learning models. As a result, clinician trust was influenced by the perceived accuracy and utility of the model from personal program experience. Implementation of Sepsis Watch was facilitated by the easy-to-use tablet application and communication strategies that were developed by nurses to share model outputs with physicians. Barriers included the flow of information among clinicians and gaps in knowledge about the model itself and broader workflow processes. CONCLUSIONS: This study generated insights into how frontline clinicians perceived machine learning models and the barriers to integrating them into clinical workflows. These findings can inform future efforts to implement machine learning interventions in real-world settings and maximize the adoption of these interventions.

Development and validation of machine learning models to identify high-risk surgical patients using automatically curated electronic health record data (Pythia): A retrospective, single-site study.

BACKGROUND: Pythia is an automated, clinically curated surgical data pipeline and repository housing all surgical patient electronic health record (EHR) data from a large, quaternary, multisite health institute for data science initiatives. In an effort to better identify high-risk surgical patients from complex data, a machine learning project trained on Pythia was built to predict postoperative complication risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A curated data repository of surgical outcomes was created using automated SQL and R code that extracted and processed patient clinical and surgical data across 37 million clinical encounters from the EHRs. A total of 194 clinical features including patient demographics (e.g., age, sex, race), smoking status, medications, comorbidities, procedure information, and proxies for surgical complexity were constructed and aggregated. A cohort of 66,370 patients that had undergone 99,755 invasive procedural encounters between January 1, 2014, and January 31, 2017, was studied further for the purpose of predicting postoperative complications. The average complication and 30-day postoperative mortality rates of this cohort were 16.0% and 0.51%, respectively. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) penalized logistic regression, random forest models, and extreme gradient boosted decision trees were trained on this surgical cohort with cross-validation on 14 specific postoperative outcome groupings. Resulting models had area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) values ranging between 0.747 and 0.924, calculated on an out-of-sample test set from the last 5 months of data. Lasso penalized regression was identified as a high-performing model, providing clinically interpretable actionable insights. Highest and lowest performing lasso models predicted postoperative shock and genitourinary outcomes with AUCs of 0.924 (95% CI: 0.901, 0.946) and 0.780 (95% CI: 0.752, 0.810), respectively. A calculator requiring input of 9 data fields was created to produce a risk assessment for the 14 groupings of postoperative outcomes. A high-risk threshold (15% risk of any complication) was determined to identify high-risk surgical patients. The model sensitivity was 76%, with a specificity of 76%. Compared to heuristics that identify high-risk patients developed by clinical experts and the ACS NSQIP calculator, this tool performed superiorly, providing an improved approach for clinicians to estimate postoperative risk for patients. Limitations of this study include the missingness of data that were removed for analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Extracting and curating a large, local institution's EHR data for machine learning purposes resulted in models with strong predictive performance. These models can be used in clinical settings as decision support tools for identification of high-risk patients as well as patient evaluation and care management. Further work is necessary to evaluate the impact of the Pythia risk calculator within the clinical workflow on postoperative outcomes and to optimize this data flow for future machine learning efforts.

From Pre-test and Post-test Probabilities to Medical Decision Making.

Background: A central goal of modern evidence-based medicine is the development of simple and easy to use tools that help clinicians integrate quantitative information into medical decision-making. The Bayesian Pre-test/Post-test Probability (BPP) framework is arguably the most well known of such tools and provides a formal approach to quantify diagnostic uncertainty given the result of a medical test or the presence of a clinical sign. Yet, clinical decision-making goes beyond quantifying diagnostic uncertainty and requires that that uncertainty be balanced against the various costs and benefits associated with each possible decision. Despite increasing attention in recent years, simple and flexible approaches to quantitative clinical decision-making have remained elusive. Methods: We extend the BPP framework using concepts of Bayesian Decision Theory. By integrating cost, we can expand the BPP framework to allow for clinical decision-making. Results: We develop a simple quantitative framework for binary clinical decisions (e.g., action/inaction, treat/no-treat, test/no-test). Let p be the pre-test or post-test probability that a patient has disease. We show that r*=(1-p)/p represents a critical value called a decision boundary. In terms of the relative cost of under- to over-acting, r* represents the critical value at which action and inaction are equally optimal. We demonstrate how this decision boundary can be used at the bedside through case studies and as a research tool through a reanalysis of a recent study which found widespread misestimation of pre-test and post-test probabilities among clinicians. Conclusions: Our approach is so simple that it should be thought of as a core, yet previously overlooked, part of the BPP framework. Unlike prior approaches to quantitative clinical decision-making, our approach requires little more than a hand-held calculator, is applicable in almost any setting where the BPP framework can be used, and excels in situations where the costs and benefits associated with a particular decision are patient-specific and difficult to quantify.

Development and Temporal Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Clinical Deterioration.

OBJECTIVES: Early warning scores detecting clinical deterioration in pediatric inpatients have wide-ranging performance and use a limited number of clinical features. This study developed a machine learning model leveraging multiple static and dynamic clinical features from the electronic health record to predict the composite outcome of unplanned transfer to the ICU within 24 hours and inpatient mortality within 48 hours in hospitalized children. METHODS: Using a retrospective development cohort of 17 630 encounters across 10 388 patients, 2 machine learning models (light gradient boosting machine [LGBM] and random forest) were trained on 542 features and compared with our institutional Pediatric Early Warning Score (I-PEWS). RESULTS: The LGBM model significantly outperformed I-PEWS based on receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the composite outcome of ICU transfer or mortality for both internal validation and temporal validation cohorts (AUROC 0.785 95% confidence interval [0.780-0.791] vs 0.708 [0.701-0.715] for temporal validation) as well as lead-time before deterioration events (median 11 hours vs 3 hours; P = .004). However, LGBM performance as evaluated by precision recall curve was lesser in the temporal validation cohort with associated decreased positive predictive value (6% vs 29%) and increased number needed to evaluate (17 vs 3) compared with I-PEWS. CONCLUSIONS: Our electronic health record based machine learning model demonstrated improved AUROC and lead-time in predicting clinical deterioration in pediatric inpatients 24 to 48 hours in advance compared with I-PEWS. Further work is needed to optimize model positive predictive value to allow for integration into clinical practice.

Empowering US healthcare delivery organizations: Cultivating a community of practice to harness AI and advance health equity.

Healthcare delivery organizations (HDOs) in the US must contend with the potential for AI to worsen health inequities. But there is no standard set of procedures for HDOs to adopt to navigate these challenges. There is an urgent need for HDOs to present a unified approach to proactively address the potential for AI to worsen health inequities. Amidst this background, Health AI Partnership (HAIP) launched a community of practice to convene stakeholders from across HDOs to tackle challenges related to the use of AI. On February 15, 2023, HAIP hosted an inaugural workshop focused on the question, "Our health care delivery setting is considering adopting a new solution that uses AI. How do we assess the potential future impact on health inequities?" This topic emerged as a common challenge faced by all HDOs participating in HAIP. The workshop had 2 main goals. First, we wanted to ensure participants could talk openly without reservations about challenging topics such as health equity. The second goal was to develop an actionable, generalizable framework that could be immediately put into practice. The workshop engaged 77 participants with 100% representation from all 10 HDOs and invited ecosystem partners. In an accompanying Research Article, we share the Health Equity Across the AI Lifecycle (HEAAL) framework. We invite and encourage HDOs to test the HEAAL framework internally and share feedback so that we can continue to refine and maintain the set of procedures. The HEAAL framework reveals the challenges associated with rigorously assessing the potential for AI to worsen health inequities. Significant investment in personnel, capabilities, and data infrastructure is required, and the level of investment needed could be beyond reach for most HDOs. We look forward to expanding our community of practice to assist HDOs around the world.

Strengthening the use of artificial intelligence within healthcare delivery organizations: balancing regulatory compliance and patient safety.

OBJECTIVES: Surface the urgent dilemma that healthcare delivery organizations (HDOs) face navigating the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) final guidance on the use of clinical decision support (CDS) software. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We use sepsis as a case study to highlight the patient safety and regulatory compliance tradeoffs that 6129 hospitals in the United States must navigate. RESULTS: Sepsis CDS remains in broad, routine use. There is no commercially available sepsis CDS system that is FDA cleared as a medical device. There is no public disclosure of an HDO turning off sepsis CDS due to regulatory compliance concerns. And there is no public disclosure of FDA enforcement action against an HDO for using sepsis CDS that is not cleared as a medical device. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: We present multiple policy interventions that would relieve the current tension to enable HDOs to utilize artificial intelligence to improve patient care while also addressing FDA concerns about product safety, efficacy, and equity.

The algorithm journey map: a tangible approach to implementing AI solutions in healthcare.

When integrating AI tools in healthcare settings, complex interactions between technologies and primary users are not always fully understood or visible. This deficient and ambiguous understanding hampers attempts by healthcare organizations to adopt AI/ML, and it also creates new challenges for researchers to identify opportunities for simplifying adoption and developing best practices for the use of AI-based solutions. Our study fills this gap by documenting the process of designing, building, and maintaining an AI solution called SepsisWatch at Duke University Health System. We conducted 20 interviews with the team of engineers and scientists that led the multi-year effort to build the tool, integrate it into practice, and maintain the solution. This "Algorithm Journey Map" enumerates all social and technical activities throughout the AI solution's procurement, development, integration, and full lifecycle management. In addition to mapping the "who?" and "what?" of the adoption of the AI tool, we also show several 'lessons learned' throughout the algorithm journey maps including modeling assumptions, stakeholder inclusion, and organizational structure. In doing so, we identify generalizable insights about how to recognize and navigate barriers to AI/ML adoption in healthcare settings. We expect that this effort will further the development of best practices for operationalizing and sustaining ethical principles-in algorithmic systems.

Development and preliminary testing of Health Equity Across the AI Lifecycle (HEAAL): A framework for healthcare delivery organizations to mitigate the risk of AI solutions worsening health inequities.

The use of data-driven technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) is growing in healthcare. However, the proliferation of healthcare AI tools has outpaced regulatory frameworks, accountability measures, and governance standards to ensure safe, effective, and equitable use. To address these gaps and tackle a common challenge faced by healthcare delivery organizations, a case-based workshop was organized, and a framework was developed to evaluate the potential impact of implementing an AI solution on health equity. The Health Equity Across the AI Lifecycle (HEAAL) is co-designed with extensive engagement of clinical, operational, technical, and regulatory leaders across healthcare delivery organizations and ecosystem partners in the US. It assesses 5 equity assessment domains-accountability, fairness, fitness for purpose, reliability and validity, and transparency-across the span of eight key decision points in the AI adoption lifecycle. It is a process-oriented framework containing 37 step-by-step procedures for evaluating an existing AI solution and 34 procedures for evaluating a new AI solution in total. Within each procedure, it identifies relevant key stakeholders and data sources used to conduct the procedure. HEAAL guides how healthcare delivery organizations may mitigate the potential risk of AI solutions worsening health inequities. It also informs how much resources and support are required to assess the potential impact of AI solutions on health inequities.

Frameworks for procurement, integration, monitoring, and evaluation of artificial intelligence tools in clinical settings: A systematic review.

Research on the applications of artificial intelligence (AI) tools in medicine has increased exponentially over the last few years but its implementation in clinical practice has not seen a commensurate increase with a lack of consensus on implementing and maintaining such tools. This systematic review aims to summarize frameworks focusing on procuring, implementing, monitoring, and evaluating AI tools in clinical practice. A comprehensive literature search, following PRSIMA guidelines was performed on MEDLINE, Wiley Cochrane, Scopus, and EBSCO databases, to identify and include articles recommending practices, frameworks or guidelines for AI procurement, integration, monitoring, and evaluation. From the included articles, data regarding study aim, use of a framework, rationale of the framework, details regarding AI implementation involving procurement, integration, monitoring, and evaluation were extracted. The extracted details were then mapped on to the Donabedian Plan, Do, Study, Act cycle domains. The search yielded 17,537 unique articles, out of which 47 were evaluated for inclusion based on their full texts and 25 articles were included in the review. Common themes extracted included transparency, feasibility of operation within existing workflows, integrating into existing workflows, validation of the tool using predefined performance indicators and improving the algorithm and/or adjusting the tool to improve performance. Among the four domains (Plan, Do, Study, Act) the most common domain was Plan (84%, n = 21), followed by Study (60%, n = 15), Do (52%, n = 13), & Act (24%, n = 6). Among 172 authors, only 1 (0.6%) was from a low-income country (LIC) and 2 (1.2%) were from lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). Healthcare professionals cite the implementation of AI tools within clinical settings as challenging owing to low levels of evidence focusing on integration in the Do and Act domains. The current healthcare AI landscape calls for increased data sharing and knowledge translation to facilitate common goals and reap maximum clinical benefit.

A framework for understanding label leakage in machine learning for health care.

INTRODUCTION: The pitfalls of label leakage, contamination of model input features with outcome information, are well established. Unfortunately, avoiding label leakage in clinical prediction models requires more nuance than the common advice of applying "no time machine rule." FRAMEWORK: We provide a framework for contemplating whether and when model features pose leakage concerns by considering the cadence, perspective, and applicability of predictions. To ground these concepts, we use real-world clinical models to highlight examples of appropriate and inappropriate label leakage in practice. RECOMMENDATIONS: Finally, we provide recommendations to support clinical and technical stakeholders as they evaluate the leakage tradeoffs associated with model design, development, and implementation decisions. By providing common language and dimensions to consider when designing models, we hope the clinical prediction community will be better prepared to develop statistically valid and clinically useful machine learning models.

Accelerating health system innovation: principles and practices from the Duke Institute for Health Innovation.

The Duke Institute for Health Innovation (DIHI) was launched in 2013. Frontline staff members submit proposals for innovation projects that align with strategic priorities set by organizational leadership. Funded projects receive operational and technical support from institute staff members and a transdisciplinary network of collaborators to develop and implement solutions as part of routine clinical care, ranging from machine learning algorithms to mobile applications. DIHI's operations are shaped by four guiding principles: build to show value, build to integrate, build to scale, and build responsibly. Between 2013 and 2021, more than 600 project proposals have been submitted to DIHI. More than 85 innovation projects, both through the application process and other strategic partnerships, have been supported and implemented. DIHI's funding has incubated 12 companies, engaged more than 300 faculty members, staff members, and students, and contributed to more than 50 peer-reviewed publications. DIHI's practices can serve as a model for other health systems to systematically source, develop, implement, and scale innovations.

Development and Integration of Machine Learning Algorithm to Identify Peripheral Arterial Disease: Multistakeholder Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML)-driven clinical decision support (CDS) continues to draw wide interest and investment as a means of improving care quality and value, despite mixed real-world implementation outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore the factors that influence the integration of a peripheral arterial disease (PAD) identification algorithm to implement timely guideline-based care. METHODS: A total of 12 semistructured interviews were conducted with individuals from 3 stakeholder groups during the first 4 weeks of integration of an ML-driven CDS. The stakeholder groups included technical, administrative, and clinical members of the team interacting with the ML-driven CDS. The ML-driven CDS identified patients with a high probability of having PAD, and these patients were then reviewed by an interdisciplinary team that developed a recommended action plan and sent recommendations to the patient's primary care provider. Pseudonymized transcripts were coded, and thematic analysis was conducted by a multidisciplinary research team. RESULTS: Three themes were identified: positive factors translating in silico performance to real-world efficacy, organizational factors and data structure factors affecting clinical impact, and potential challenges to advancing equity. Our study found that the factors that led to successful translation of in silico algorithm performance to real-world impact were largely nontechnical, given adequate efficacy in retrospective validation, including strong clinical leadership, trustworthy workflows, early consideration of end-user needs, and ensuring that the CDS addresses an actionable problem. Negative factors of integration included failure to incorporate the on-the-ground context, the lack of feedback loops, and data silos limiting the ML-driven CDS. The success criteria for each stakeholder group were also characterized to better understand how teams work together to integrate ML-driven CDS and to understand the varying needs across stakeholder groups. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal and multidisciplinary stakeholder engagement in the development and integration of ML-driven CDS underpins its effective translation into real-world care. Although previous studies have focused on the technical elements of ML-driven CDS, our study demonstrates the importance of including administrative and operational leaders as well as an early consideration of clinicians' needs. Seeing how different stakeholder groups have this more holistic perspective also permits more effective detection of context-driven health care inequities, which are uncovered or exacerbated via ML-driven CDS integration through structural and organizational challenges. Many of the solutions to these inequities lie outside the scope of ML and require coordinated systematic solutions for mitigation to help reduce disparities in the care of patients with PAD.

Use of convolutional neural networks in skin lesion analysis using real world image and non-image data.

Background: Understanding performance of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for binary (benign vs. malignant) lesion classification based on real world images is important for developing a meaningful clinical decision support (CDS) tool. Methods: We developed a CNN based on real world smartphone images with histopathological ground truth and tested the utility of structured electronic health record (EHR) data on model performance. Model accuracy was compared against three board-certified dermatologists for clinical validity. Results: At a classification threshold of 0.5, the sensitivity was 79 vs. 77 vs. 72%, and specificity was 64 vs. 65 vs. 57% for image-alone vs. combined image and clinical data vs. clinical data-alone models, respectively. The PPV was 68 vs. 69 vs. 62%, AUC was 0.79 vs. 0.79 vs. 0.69, and AP was 0.78 vs. 0.79 vs. 0.64 for image-alone vs. combined data vs. clinical data-alone models. Older age, male sex, and number of prior dermatology visits were important positive predictors for malignancy in the clinical data-alone model. Conclusion: Additional clinical data did not significantly improve CNN image model performance. Model accuracy for predicting malignant lesions was comparable to dermatologists (model: 71.31% vs. 3 dermatologists: 77.87, 69.88, and 71.93%), validating clinical utility. Prospective validation of the model in primary care setting will enhance understanding of the model's clinical utility.