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During January-August 2021, the Community Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Study used time/location sampling to recruit a cross-sectional, population-based cohort to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and nasal swab sample PCR positivity across 15 US communities. Survey-weighted estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccine willingness among participants at each site were compared within demographic groups by using linear regression models with inverse variance weighting. Among 22,284 persons >2 months of age and older, median prevalence of infection (prior, active, or both) was 12.9% across sites and similar across age groups. Within each site, average prevalence of infection was 3 percentage points higher for Black than White persons and average vaccine willingness was 10 percentage points lower for Black than White persons and 7 percentage points lower for Black persons than for persons in other racial groups. The higher prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among groups with lower vaccine willingness highlights the disparate effect of COVID-19 and its complications.
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COVID-19 , Vacunas , Adulto , Niño , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudios Transversales , Prevalencia , Estudios SeroepidemiológicosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are a promising approach for HIV-1 prevention. In the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials, a CD4-binding site targeting bnAb, VRC01, administered intravenously (IV), demonstrated 75% prevention efficacy against highly neutralization-sensitive viruses but was ineffective against less sensitive viruses. VRC07-523LS is a next-generation bnAb targeting the CD4-binding site and was engineered for increased neutralization breadth and half-life. We conducted a multicenter, randomized, partially blinded Phase I clinical trial to evaluate the safety and serum concentrations of VRC07-523LS, administered in multiple doses and routes to healthy adults without HIV. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Participants were recruited between 2 February 2018 and 9 October 2018. A total of 124 participants were randomized to receive 5 VRC07-523LS administrations via IV (T1: 2.5 mg/kg, T2: 5 mg/kg, T3: 20 mg/kg), subcutaneous (SC) (T4: 2.5 mg/kg, T5: 5 mg/kg), or intramuscular (IM) (T6: 2.5 mg/kg or P6: placebo) routes at 4-month intervals. Participants and site staff were blinded to VRC07-523LS versus placebo for the IM group, while all other doses and routes were open-label. Safety data were collected for 144 weeks following the first administration. VRC07-523LS serum concentrations were measured by ELISA through Day 112 in all participants and by binding antibody multiplex assay (BAMA) thereafter in 60 participants (10 per treatment group) through Day 784. Compartmental population pharmacokinetic (PK) analyses were conducted to evaluate the VRC07-523LS serum PK. Neutralization activity was measured in a TZM-bl assay and antidrug antibodies (ADAs) were assayed using a tiered bridging assay testing strategy. Injections and infusions were well tolerated, with mild pain or tenderness reported commonly in the SC and IM groups, and mild to moderate erythema or induration reported commonly in the SC groups. Infusion reactions were reported in 3 of 20 participants in the 20 mg/kg IV group. Peak geometric mean (GM) concentrations (95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]) following the first administration were 29.0 µg/mL (25.2, 33.4), 58.5 µg/mL (49.4, 69.3), and 257.2 µg/mL (127.5, 518.9) in T1-T3 with IV dosing; 10.8 µg/mL (8.8, 13.3) and 22.8 µg/mL (20.1, 25.9) in T4-T5 with SC dosing; and 16.4 µg/mL (14.7, 18.2) in T6 with IM dosing. Trough GM (95% CIs) concentrations immediately prior to the second administration were 3.4 µg/mL (2.5, 4.6), 6.5 µg/mL (5.6, 7.5), and 27.2 µg/mL (23.9, 31.0) with IV dosing; 0.97 µg/mL (0.65, 1.4) and 3.1 µg/mL (2.2, 4.3) with SC dosing, and 2.6 µg/mL (2.05, 3.31) with IM dosing. Peak VRC07-523LS serum concentrations increased linearly with the administered dose. At a given dose, peak and trough concentrations, as well as serum neutralization titers, were highest in the IV groups, reflecting the lower bioavailability following SC and IM administration. A single participant was found to have low titer ADA at a lone time point. VRC07-523LS has an estimated mean half-life of 42 days across all doses and routes (95% CI: 40.5, 43.5), over twice as long as VRC01 (15 days). CONCLUSIONS: VRC07-523LS was safe and well tolerated across a range of doses and routes and is a promising long-acting bnAb for inclusion in HIV-1 prevention regimens. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov/ NCT03387150 (posted on 21 December 2017).
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Anticuerpos Neutralizantes , Anticuerpos Anti-VIH , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Adulto , Anticuerpos Neutralizantes/sangre , Anticuerpos Anti-VIH/sangre , Persona de Mediana Edad , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por VIH/inmunología , VIH-1/inmunología , Adulto Joven , Anticuerpos ampliamente neutralizantes/administración & dosificación , Anticuerpos ampliamente neutralizantes/efectos adversos , Adolescente , Inyecciones IntramuscularesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has placed a disproportionate burden on underserved racial and ethnic groups, community members working in essential industries, those living in areas of high population density, and those reliant on in-person services such as transportation. The goal of this study was to estimate the cross-sectional prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (active SARS-CoV-2 or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection) in children and adults attending public venues in 15 sociodemographically diverse communities in the United States and to develop a statistical design that could be rigorously implemented amidst unpredictable stay-at-home COVID-19 guidelines. METHODS: We used time-location sampling with complex sampling involving stratification, clustering of units, and unequal probabilities of selection to recruit individuals from selected communities. We safely conducted informed consent, specimen collection, and face-to-face interviews outside of public venues immediately following recruitment. RESULTS: We developed an innovative sampling design that adapted to constraints such as closure of venues, changing infection hotspots, and uncertain policies. We updated both the sampling frame and the selection probabilities over time using information acquired from prior weeks. We created site-specific survey weights that adjusted sampling probabilities for nonresponse and calibrated to county-level margins on age and sex at birth. CONCLUSIONS: Although the study itself was specific to COVID-19, the strategies presented in this article could serve as a case study that can be adapted for performing population-level inferences in similar settings and could help inform rapid and effective responses to future global public health challenges.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto , Niño , Recién Nacido , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , COVID-19/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Manejo de Especímenes , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: A universal testing and treatment strategy is a potential approach to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, yet previous trial results are inconsistent. METHODS: In the HPTN 071 (PopART) community-randomized trial conducted from 2013 through 2018, we randomly assigned 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa (total population, approximately 1 million) to group A (combination prevention intervention with universal antiretroviral therapy [ART]), group B (the prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines [universal since 2016]), or group C (standard care). The prevention intervention included home-based HIV testing delivered by community workers, who also supported linkage to HIV care and ART adherence. The primary outcome, HIV incidence between months 12 and 36, was measured in a population cohort of approximately 2000 randomly sampled adults (18 to 44 years of age) per community. Viral suppression (<400 copies of HIV RNA per milliliter) was assessed in all HIV-positive participants at 24 months. RESULTS: The population cohort included 48,301 participants. Baseline HIV prevalence was 21% or 22% in each group. Between months 12 and 36, a total of 553 new HIV infections were observed during 39,702 person-years (1.4 per 100 person-years; women, 1.7; men, 0.8). The adjusted rate ratio for group A as compared with group C was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 1.18; P = 0.51) and for group B as compared with group C was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.88; P = 0.006). The percentage of HIV-positive participants with viral suppression at 24 months was 71.9% in group A, 67.5% in group B, and 60.2% in group C. The estimated percentage of HIV-positive adults in the community who were receiving ART at 36 months was 81% in group A and 80% in group B. CONCLUSIONS: A combination prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines resulted in a 30% lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care. The lack of effect with universal ART was unanticipated and not consistent with the data on viral suppression. In this trial setting, universal testing and treatment reduced the population-level incidence of HIV infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; HPTN 071 [PopArt] ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01900977.).
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Antirretrovirales/uso terapéutico , Infecciones por VIH/diagnóstico , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Administración Masiva de Medicamentos , Tamizaje Masivo , Adolescente , Adulto , Femenino , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Prevalencia , Sudáfrica/epidemiología , Carga Viral , Adulto Joven , Zambia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Vaccine hesitancy has been a significant concern throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccine hesitancy can be attributed to lack of confidence in vaccines, complacency about the health threat, or lack of convenience of vaccination. To date, few studies have used methods designed to include populations underrepresented in research when identifying factors associated with vaccine hesitancy. METHODS: Between January and July 2021, potential participants were recruited from community venues selected through time-location sampling in 15 defined communities in the United States. Study staff administered a questionnaire on demographics, COVID-19 behaviors and attitudes, and vaccination status or intention to consenting individuals. Vaccine hesitancy was analyzed among those age 18 years and older from nine of the 15 sites and was defined as self-reported neutral, unlikely, or very unlikely vaccine intention. Logistic regression modeling, adjusted for site, identified factors associated with vaccine hesitancy. RESULTS: Among 11,559 individuals, vaccine hesitancy by site ranged from 8.7 to 31.1%. Vaccine hesitancy was associated with being Black compared to White, being White compared to Asian, younger age, unstable housing, being unemployed, lower income, having a disability, providing care in home, not reporting inability to visit sick or elderly relatives during the pandemic, not reporting increased anxiety during the pandemic, and not spending more time with loved ones during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: In these selected US communities, early in vaccine rollout, there were significant racial disparities in vaccine hesitancy. Additionally, individuals who were more marginalized due to their socioeconomic status were more likely to report vaccine hesitancy. Vaccine campaigns should make efforts to remove barriers to vaccination, by improving convenience.
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Background: Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are a promising approach for HIV-1 prevention. In the only bnAb HIV prevention efficacy studies to date, the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials, a CD4-binding site targeting bnAb, VRC01, administered intravenously (IV), demonstrated 75% prevention efficacy against highly neutralization-sensitive viruses but was ineffective against less sensitive viruses. Greater efficacy is required before passively administered bnAbs become a viable option for HIV prevention; furthermore subcutaneous (SC) or intramuscular (IM) administration may be preferred. VRC07-523LS is a next-generation bnAb targeting the CD4-binding site and was engineered for increased neutralization breadth and half-life. Methods: Participants were recruited between 02 February 2018 and 09 October 2018. 124 healthy participants without HIV were randomized to receive five VRC07-523LS administrations via IV (T1: 2.5 mg/kg, T2: 5 mg/kg, T3: 20 mg/kg), SC (T4: 2.5 mg/kg, T5: 5 mg/kg) or IM (T6: 2.5 mg/kg or P6: placebo) routes at four-month intervals. Safety data were collected for 144 weeks following the first administration. VRC07-523LS serum concentrations were measured by ELISA after the first dose through Day 112 in all participants and by binding antibody multiplex assay (BAMA) thereafter in 60 participants (10 per treatment group) through Day 784. Compartmental population pharmacokinetic (PK) analyses were conducted to evaluate the VRC07-523LS serum pharmacokinetics. Neutralization activity was measured in a TZM-bl assay and anti-drug antibodies (ADA) were assayed using a tiered bridging assay testing strategy. Results: Injections were well-tolerated, with mild pain or tenderness reported commonly in the SC and IM groups, and mild to moderate erythema or induration reported commonly in the SC groups. Infusions were generally well-tolerated, with infusion reactions reported in 3 of 20 participants in the 20 mg/kg IV group. Peak geometric mean (GM) concentrations (95% confidence intervals) following the first administration were 29.0 µg/mL (25.2, 33.4), 58.5 µg/mL (49.4, 69.3), and 257.2 µg/mL (127.5, 518.9) in T1-T3 with IV dosing; 10.8 µg/mL (8.8, 13.3) and 22.8 µg/mL (20.1, 25.9) in T4-T5 with SC dosing; and 16.4 µg/mL (14.7, 18.2) in T6 with IM dosing. Trough GM concentrations immediately prior to the second administration were 3.4 µg/mL (2.5, 4.6), 6.5 µg/mL (5.6, 7.5), and 27.2 µg/mL (23.9, 31.0) with IV dosing; 0.97 µg/mL (0.65, 1.4) and 3.1 µg/mL (2.2, 4.3) with SC dosing, and 2.6 µg/mL (2.05, 3.31) with IM dosing. Peak VRC07-523LS serum concentrations increased linearly with the administered dose. At a given dose, peak and trough concentrations, as well as serum neutralization titres, were highest in the IV groups, reflecting the lower bioavailability following SC and IM administration. A single participant was found to have low titre ADA at a lone timepoint. VRC07-523LS has an estimated mean half-life of 42 days (95% CI: 40.5, 43.5), approximately twice as long as VRC01. Conclusions: VRC07-523LS was safe and well-tolerated across a range of doses and routes and is a promising long-acting bnAb for inclusion in HIV-1 prevention regimens.
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The COVPN 5002 (COMPASS) study aimed to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (active SARS-CoV-2 or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection) in children and adults attending public venues in 15 socio-demographically diverse communities in the United States. To protect against potential challenges in implementing traditional sampling strategies, time-location sampling (TLS) using complex sampling involving stratification, clustering of units, and unequal probabilities of selection was used to recruit individuals from neighborhoods in selected communities. The innovative design adapted to constraints such as closure of venues; changing infection hotspots; and uncertain policies. Recruitment of children and the elderly raised additional challenges in sample selection and implementation. To address these challenges, the TLS design adaptively updated both the sampling frame and the selection probabilities over time using information acquired from prior weeks. Although the study itself was specific to COVID-19, the strategies presented in this paper could serve as a case study that can be adapted for performing rigorous population-level inferences in similar settings and could help inform rapid and effective responses to future global public health challenges.
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Universal HIV testing and treatment (UTT) strategies aim to optimize population-level benefits of antiretroviral treatment. Between 2012 and 2018, four large community randomized trials were conducted in eastern and southern Africa. While their results were broadly consistent showing decreased population-level viremia reduces HIV incidence, it remains unclear how much HIV incidence can be reduced by increasing suppression among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We conducted a pooled analysis across the four UTT trials. Leveraging data from 105 communities in five countries, we evaluated the linear relationship between i) population-level viremia (prevalence of non-suppression-defined as plasma HIV RNA >500 or >400 copies/mL-among all adults, irrespective of HIV status) and HIV incidence; and ii) prevalence of non-suppression among PLHIV and HIV incidence, using parametric g-computation. HIV prevalence, measured in 257 929 persons, varied from 2 to 41% across the communities; prevalence of non-suppression among PLHIV, measured in 31 377 persons, from 3 to 70%; population-level viremia, derived from HIV prevalence and non-suppression, from < 1% to 25%; and HIV incidence, measured over 345 844 person-years (PY), from 0.03/100PY to 3.46/100PY. Decreases in population-level viremia were strongly associated with decreased HIV incidence in all trials (between 0.45/100PY and 1.88/100PY decline in HIV incidence per 10 percentage points decline in viremia). Decreases in non-suppression among PLHIV were also associated with decreased HIV incidence in all trials (between 0.06/100PY and 0.17/100PY decline in HIV incidence per 10 percentage points decline in non-suppression). Our results support both the utility of population-level viremia as a predictor of incidence, and thus a tool for targeting prevention interventions, and the ability of UTT approaches to reduce HIV incidence by increasing viral suppression. Implementation of universal HIV testing approaches, coupled with interventions to leverage linkage to treatment, adapted to local contexts, can reduce HIV acquisition at population level.
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INTRODUCTION: Universal HIV testing and treatment aims to identify all people living with HIV and offer them treatment, decreasing the number of individuals with unsuppressed HIV and thus reducing HIV transmission. Longitudinal follow-up of individuals with and without HIV in a cluster-randomized trial of communities allowed for the examination of community- and individual-level measures of HIV risk and HIV incidence. METHODS: HPTN 071 (PopART) was a three-arm cluster-randomized trial conducted between 2013 and 2018 that evaluated the use of two combination HIV prevention strategies implemented at the community level to reduce HIV incidence compared to the standard of care. The trial, conducted in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa, measured HIV incidence over 36 months in a population cohort of â¼2000 randomly selected adults per community aged 18-44. Multilevel models were used to assess the association between HIV incidence and community- and individual-level socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors, as well as prevalence of detectable virus (PDV) defined as the estimated proportion of the community with unsuppressed viral load. RESULTS: Overall HIV incidence was 1.49/100 person-years. Communities with less financial wealth and communities with more individuals reporting having sex partners outside of the community or two or more sexual partners had higher HIV incidence. PDV at 2 years of study was 6.8% and was strongly associated with HIV incidence: for every 50% relative reduction in community PDV, there was a 49% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 37%-58%, p < 0.001) relative decrease in HIV incidence. At the individual level; socio-economic status, AUDIT score, medical male circumcision and certain sexual behaviours were associated with HIV risk. CONCLUSIONS: Using data from the PopART randomized trial, we found several associations of HIV incidence with community-level measures reflecting the sexual behaviour and socio-economic make-up of each community. We also found a strong association between community PDV and HIV incidence supporting the use of PDV as a tool for monitoring progress in controlling the epidemic. Lastly, we found significant individual-level factors of HIV risk that are generally consistent with previous HIV epidemiological research. These results have the potential to identify high high-incidence communities, inform structural-level interventions, and optimize individual-level interventions for HIV prevention. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01900977, HPTN 071 [PopArt].
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Circuncisión Masculina , Epidemias , Infecciones por VIH , Adulto , Humanos , Masculino , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Incidencia , Conducta SexualRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Comprehensive HIV prevention strategies have raised concerns that knowledge of interventions to reduce risk of HIV infection might mitigate an individual's perception of risk, resulting in riskier sexual behaviour. We investigated the prespecified secondary outcomes of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial to determine whether a combination HIV prevention strategy, including universal HIV testing and treatment, changed sexual behaviour; specifically, we investigated whether there was evidence of sexual risk compensation. METHODS: HPTN 071 (PopART) was a cluster-randomised trial conducted during 2013-18, in which we randomly assigned 21 communities with high HIV prevalence in Zambia and South Africa (total population, approximately 1 million) to combination prevention intervention with universal antiretroviral therapy (ART; arm A), prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines (universal since 2016; arm B), or standard of care (arm C). The trial included a population cohort of approximately 2000 randomly selected adults (aged 18-44 years) in each community (N=38â474 at baseline) who were followed up for 36 months. A prespecified secondary objective was to evaluate the impact of the PopART intervention compared with standard of care on herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and sexual behaviour (N=20â422 completed final visit). Secondary endpoints included differences in sexual risk behaviour measures at 36 months and were assessed using a two-stage method for matched cluster-randomised trials. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials. gov, number NCT01900977. FINDINGS: The PopART intervention did not substantially change probability of self-reported multiple sex partners, sexual debut, or pregnancy in women at 36 months. Adjusted for baseline community prevalence, reported condomless sex was significantly lower in arm A versus arm C (adjusted prevalence ratio 0·80 [95% CI 0·64-0·99]; p=0·04) but not in arm B versus arm C (0·94 [0·76-1·17]; p=0·55). 3-year HSV-2 incidence was reduced in arm B versus arm C (adjusted risk ratio 0·76 [95% CI 0·63-0·92]; p=0·010); no significant change was shown between arm A versus arm C (0·89 [0·73-1·08]; p=0·199). INTERPRETATION: We found little evidence of any change in sexual behaviour owing to the PopART interventions, and reassuringly for public health, we saw no evidence of sexual risk compensation. The findings do not help to explain the differences between the two intervention groups of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institutes of Health, the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and the Medical Research Council UK.
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Infecciones por VIH , Adulto , Femenino , Humanos , Herpesvirus Humano 2 , Infecciones por VIH/diagnóstico , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Incidencia , Asunción de Riesgos , Conducta Sexual , Sudáfrica/epidemiología , Zambia/epidemiología , Masculino , Adolescente , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In 2014, UNAIDS set the target that 90% of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) be virally suppressed. Here, we use data from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial to report whether the introduction of universal testing and treatment has affected viral suppression or treatment adherence among individuals who self-reported they were taking ART, and identify risk factors for these outcomes. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study nested within the randomly selected population cohort of the PopART trial. The trial took place in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa. Analyses included 3570 HIV-positive participants who were seen at the second follow-up visit in 2016-17 and who self-reported that they were currently taking ART. Viral suppression was defined as HIV RNA of less than 400 copies per mL from a blood sample collected during the cohort visit, and ART adherence was measured using self-reporting (reported as no missed pills in last 7 days). Prevalences of these outcomes were compared across three trial arms using a two-stage approach suitable for clustered data. Each arm consisted of seven communities, with one arm receiving a combination HIV prevention package including immediate ART initiation, one receiving a combination HIV prevention package excluding immediate ART initiation and one arm receving standard of care. Risk factors for each of the outcomes were assessed using logistic regression. FINDINGS: Among the 3570 participants who self-reported that they were currently on ART, 416 (11·7%) of 3554 were not virally suppressed (16 were missing viral suppression status) and 345 (9·7%) of 3566 reported being non-adherent to ART (four were missing adherence status). The proportion not virally suppressed was higher in communities in South Africa (195 [16·4%] of 1191) than in Zambia (221 [9·4%] of 2363). There was no evidence that the prevalence of the outcomes differed between trial arms. There was evidence that men, younger individuals, individuals who reported participating in harmful alcohol use, and those who reported internalised stigma were more likely to be non-adherent, and not virally suppressed. INTERPRETATION: The results assuaged concerns that early ART initiation in a universal testing and treatment setting could lead to reduced adherence and viral suppression. FUNDING: US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (which is a part of the National Institutes of Health), the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation with support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Medical Research Council UK.
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Fármacos Anti-VIH , Infecciones por VIH , Humanos , Masculino , Fármacos Anti-VIH/uso terapéutico , Estudios Transversales , Infecciones por VIH/diagnóstico , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Autoinforme , Sudáfrica/epidemiología , Zambia/epidemiología , FemeninoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The long-term impact of universal home-based testing and treatment as part of universal testing and treatment (UTT) on HIV incidence is unknown. We made projections using a detailed individual-based model of the effect of the intervention delivered in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial. METHODS: In this modelling study, we fitted an individual-based model to the HIV epidemic and HIV care cascade in 21 high prevalence communities in Zambia and South Africa that were part of the PopART cluster-randomised trial (intervention period Nov 1, 2013, to Dec 31, 2017). The model represents coverage of home-based testing and counselling by age and sex, delivered as part of the trial, antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake, and any changes in national guidelines on ART eligibility. In PopART, communities were randomly assigned to one of three arms: arm A received the full PopART intervention for all individuals who tested positive for HIV, arm B received the intervention with ART provided in accordance with national guidelines, and arm C received standard of care. We fitted the model to trial data twice using Approximate Bayesian Computation, once before data unblinding and then again after data unblinding. We compared projections of intervention impact with observed effects, and for four different scenarios of UTT up to Jan 1, 2030 in the study communities. FINDINGS: Compared with standard of care, a 51% (95% credible interval 40-60) reduction in HIV incidence is projected if the trial intervention (arms A and B combined) is continued from 2020 to 2030, over and above a declining trend in HIV incidence under standard of care. INTERPRETATION: A widespread and continued commitment to UTT via home-based testing and counselling can have a substantial effect on HIV incidence in high prevalence communities. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health.