The impact of catch-up bivalent human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical screening outcomes: an observational study from the English HPV primary screening pilot.

BACKGROUND: In England, bivalent vaccination (Cervarix) against high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) genotypes 16/18 was offered in a population-based catch-up campaign in 2008-2010 to girls aged 14-17 years. These women are now entering the national cervical screening programme. We determined the impact of catch-up bivalent vaccination on their screening outcomes. METHODS: We studied the overall and genotype-specific screening outcomes in 108,138 women aged 24-25 (offered vaccination) and 26-29 years (not offered vaccination) included in the English HPV screening pilot between 2013 and 2018. RESULTS: At 24-25 years, the detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+) associated with HPV16/18 decreased from 3 to 1% (p < 0.001), with estimated vaccine effectiveness of 87% (95% CI: 82-91%). The detection of any CIN2+ halved from 6 to 3% (p < 0.001), with an estimated vaccine effectiveness of 72% (95% CI: 66-77%). The positive predictive value of a colposcopy for CIN2+ decreased for both low-grade (p < 0.001) and high-grade (p = 0.02) abnormalities on triage cytology. The decreases in screen-detected abnormalities at age 26-29 were of a substantially smaller magnitude. CONCLUSIONS: These data confirm high effectiveness of bivalent HPV vaccination delivered through a population-based catch-up campaign in England. These findings add to the rationale for extending screening intervals for vaccinated cohorts.

The effects of the national HPV vaccination programme in England, UK, on cervical cancer and grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia incidence: a register-based observational study.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation with a bivalent vaccine (Cervarix) was introduced in England, UK, in Sept 1, 2008: routine vaccination was offered to girls aged 12-13 years with a catch-up programme for females aged 14-18 years in 2008-10. We quantified the early effect of this immunisation programme on cervical cancer and cervical carcinoma in situ, namely grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3), registrations. METHODS: In this observational study, we used an extension of the age-period-cohort Poisson model to estimate the relative risk of cervical cancer in three vaccinated cohorts compared with earlier cohorts that were not eligible for HPV vaccination. Data from a population-based cancer registry were extracted on Jan 26, 2021, and were assessed for diagnoses of cervical cancer and CIN3 from Jan 1, 2006 to June 30, 2019 in women aged 20-64 years and who were a resident in England. We used three vaccinated cohorts to account for differences in the school year in which the vaccine was offered and its national coverage. Adjustment for confounding was made using information on changes in cervical screening policy and historical events that affected cervical cancer incidence. Results were compared across models with different adjustments for confounders. FINDINGS: We used data from a total of 13·7 million-years of follow-up of women aged 20 years to younger than 30 years. The estimated relative reduction in cervical cancer rates by age at vaccine offer were 34% (95% CI 25-41) for age 16-18 years (school year 12-13), 62% (52-71) for age 14-16 years (school year 10-11), and 87% (72-94) for age 12-13 years (school year 8), compared with the reference unvaccinated cohort. The corresponding risk reductions for CIN3 were 39% (95% CI 36-41) for those offered at age 16-18 years, 75% (72-77) for age 14-16 years, and 97% (96-98) for age 12-13 years. These results remained similar across models. We estimated that by June 30, 2019 there had been 448 (339-556) fewer than expected cervical cancers and 17 235 (15 919-18 552) fewer than expected cases of CIN3 in vaccinated cohorts in England. INTERPRETATION: We observed a substantial reduction in cervical cancer and incidence of CIN3 in young women after the introduction of the HPV immunisation programme in England, especially in individuals who were offered the vaccine at age 12-13 years. The HPV immunisation programme has successfully almost eliminated cervical cancer in women born since Sept 1, 1995. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

What Do Diagnoses of Pelvic Inflammatory Disease in Specialist Sexual Health Services in England Tell Us About Chlamydia Control?

BACKGROUND: Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) is an outcome measure for the evaluation of chlamydia screening programs. We explore PID diagnoses in specialist sexual health services (SSHSs) in England to inform the evaluation of the National Chlamydia Screening Programme, which was implemented nationally in 2008. METHODS: We conducted descriptive analyses using data on diagnoses of PID-with and without Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and/or Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC)-by age and year of birth, in SSHSs between 2009 and 2019 from the GUMCAD STI Surveillance System database. Rates were calculated per 100 000 females residing in England. RESULTS: CT screening activity peaked in 2010. The rates of all PID diagnoses decreased between 2009 and 2019 by 39%. CT-associated PID (CT-PID) declined by 58%, and nonspecific PID declined by 37%. GC-PID increased by 34%. CT-PID decreased across all age groups with the highest observed decline, 71%, in 15- to 19-year-olds. A dose-response relationship was observed between CT-PID rates and screening, with rates lowest in those with the greatest exposure to screening. CONCLUSIONS: There was a marked decline in diagnoses of CT-PID, and nonspecific PID, at SSHSs after the introduction of widespread chlamydia screening, whereas GC-PID diagnoses increased. This ecological trend was broadly consistent with what we would have expected to see if widespread screening reduced the incidence of chlamydia-associated PID (and of nonspecific PID), as has been observed in randomized controlled trials of screening.

Performance of human papillomavirus DNA detection in residual specimens taken for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae nucleic acid amplification testing in men who have sex with men.

OBJECTIVES: Rectal swab specimens, either alone or pooled with first-void urine (FVU) and pharyngeal swab specimens, are used to test for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infection in men who have sex with men (MSM). Following introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for MSM attending UK sexual health services (SHSs), HPV testing of residual CT/NG test specimens has been proposed to monitor HPV prevalence in this population. Performance of HPV detection in such specimens has not been evaluated previously. METHODS: MSM attending a UK SHS provided three specimens: (1) rectal swab for CT/NG, (2) pooled rectal/pharyngeal/FVU specimen for CT/NG and (3) dedicated anal swab for HPV. Specimen 3 and residual material from specimens 1 and 2 were tested for type-specific HPV DNA. HPV detection was by an in-house multiplex PCR and luminex-based genotyping assay. RESULTS: A total of 129 MSM were recruited with a mean age of 38.1 years; 24% were HIV-positive. Of the 129 MSM, 92 (71%) had any type-specific HPV DNA in ≥1 specimen; 80 (62%) had high risk (HR) HPV. Of 123 participants with sufficient residual pooled and dedicated specimens, 70 (56.9%) had detectable HPV on both, and 40 (32.5%) were negative on both; overall concordance was 89% (95% CI 83% to 94%), and kappa statistic was 0.78 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.89). Pooled samples had a 4.1% (95% CI -1.9% to 10.0%) higher test positivity rate than dedicated samples.Of 125 participants with sufficient residual rectal and specimens, 74 (59.2%) had detectable HPV on both, and 36 (28.8%) were negative on both; overall concordance was 88% (95% CI 81% to 93%), and kappa statistic was 0.74 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.86). Residual rectal samples had 5.6% (95%CI -0.6% to 11.8%) higher test positivity than dedicated samples. CONCLUSIONS: We observed high concordance between the dedicated and residual STI test specimens. Our data support the strategy of testing residual specimens for HPV prevalence monitoring in MSM to evaluate the impact of the targeted vaccination programme.

HPV16 and HPV18 seropositivity and DNA detection among men who have sex with men: a cross-sectional study conducted in a sexual health clinic in London.

OBJECTIVES: Men who have sex with men (MSM) have an increased risk of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related diseases compared with men who have sex exclusively with women. From April 2018, there has been a phased roll-out of HPV vaccination offered to MSM aged up to 45 years old who are attending sexual health clinics and HIV clinics in England. The vaccine is most effective if delivered prior to HPV infection. We estimated the proportion of MSM with no current vaccine-type infection and no serological evidence of prior infection, in a study undertaken prior to vaccine introduction. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among 484 MSM aged 18-40 years old who attended a sexual health clinic in London between 2010 and 2012. We estimated the prevalence of current and past infection by testing for HPV DNA in anogenital samples and for serum antibodies to HPV16 and HPV18. RESULTS: The median age was 30 years (IQR 25-35). The prevalence of HPV16 and HPV18 DNA was 13.2% and 6.2%, respectively. Seropositivity for HPV16 and HPV18 was 28.5% and 17.1%, respectively, with 11.4% seropositive for both types. Seropositivity for the same HPV type was strongly associated with anogenital DNA detection. 279 MSM (57.6%) tested negative for both HPV16 and HPV18 serology and were DNA negative for these two types; only 5 MSM (1.0%) were seropositive and DNA positive for both HPV types. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to determine both the prevalence of HPV DNA in anogenital samples and HPV seroprevalence among MSM attending a sexual health clinic in the UK. Over half of MSM in this study had no evidence of a previous or current infection with either of the high-risk HPV types included in the quadrivalent vaccine, which supports the rationale for opportunistic HPV vaccination of MSM attending sexual health clinics.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and oropharyngeal HPV in ethnically diverse, sexually active adolescents: community-based cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma is the most common human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cancer in the UK, but little is known about the prevalence of oropharyngeal HPV in sexually active teenagers. We investigated reported HPV vaccination coverage (in females) and prevalence of oropharyngeal HPV in sexually active students attending six technical colleges in London, UK. METHODS: In 2017, we obtained mouthwash samples and questionnaires from male and female students taking part in the 'Test n Treat' chlamydia screening trial. Samples were subjected to HPV genotyping. RESULTS: Of 232 participants approached, 202 (87%) provided a mouthwash sample and questionnaire. Participants' median age was 17 years and 47% were male. Most (73%) were from black and minority ethnic groups, 64% gave a history of oral sex, 52% reported having a new sexual partner in the past 6 months, 33% smoked cigarettes, 5.9% had concurrent genitourinary Chlamydia trachomatis infection and 1.5% Neisseria gonorrhoeae and 5.0% were gay or bisexual. Only 47% (50/107) of females reported being vaccinated against HPV 16/18, of whom 74% had received ≥2 injections. HPV genotyping showed three mouthwash samples (1.5%, 95% CI 0.3% to 4.3%) were positive for possible high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), one (0.5%, 0.0% to 2.7%) for low-risk HPV 6/11, but none (0.0%, 0.0% to 1.8%) for HR-HPV. Four samples (2.0%, 0.5% to 5.0%) were positive for HPV16 using a HPV16 type-specific quantitative PCR, but these were at a very low copy number and considered essentially negative. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the high prevalence of oral sex and genitourinary chlamydia and low prevalence of HPV vaccination, the prevalence of oropharyngeal HR-HPV in these adolescents was negligible.

Declines in anogenital warts diagnoses since the change in 2012 to use the quadrivalent HPV vaccine in England: data to end 2017.

OBJECTIVES: In 2008, a national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme for females was introduced in England using the bivalent vaccine (HPV16 and 18 only). In 2012, the programme changed to offer the quadrivalent vaccine that includes protection against the two HPV types that cause the majority of anogenital warts (AGW; HPV6 and 11). We present data reporting AGW diagnoses in sexual health clinics (SHCs) in England to the end of 2017, including diagnoses among birth cohorts offered the quadrivalent vaccine. METHODS: Using data from all SHCs across England, we performed ecological analyses to consider rates of AGW diagnoses by age, gender and sexual orientation. We tested for trends over time of diagnoses of AGW in young females, heterosexual males, and men who have sex with men (MSM) between the ages of 15 and 24 years during both bivalent (2009 to 2013) and quadrivalent (2014 to 2017) vaccine time periods using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2017, there was strong evidence for a decreasing trend in the rate of AGW diagnoses at SHC among females aged 15-17 years from 257.5 to 45.7 per 100 000 population (82.3% decline) and same aged heterosexual males from 59.1 to 19.1 per 100 000 population (67.7% decline). The reductions in the incidence of AGW diagnoses in MSM aged 15-17 years were less clear (decreased by 13.6% between 2014 and 2017, from 129.9 to 112.2 per 100 000 population). CONCLUSIONS: The moderate, unexpected declines in AGW seen since the introduction of a high-coverage HPV vaccination programme using the bivalent vaccine are being followed, as expected, by much larger declines among females offered the quadrivalent vaccine and same-aged heterosexual males. Surveillance plans are in place to continue to monitor AGW diagnoses to evaluate the impact of both female and targeted MSM HPV vaccination on early disease outcomes.

HPV vaccination of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in sexual health and HIV clinics in England: vaccination uptake and attendances during the pilot phase.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) aged up to 45 years attending sexual health clinics (SHC) and HIV clinics began in England as a pilot in June 2016, with national roll-out from April 2018. The recommended course is three doses of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine over one to 2 years. We present the methodology and results of monitoring vaccination uptake (initiation and completion), and attendance patterns, during the pilot phase. METHODS: Total numbers of eligible GBMSM receiving HPV vaccine doses were extracted from routine datasets from pilot start to end of March 2018. Numbers of attendances since January 2009 were extracted and tested for trends before and after introduction of HPV vaccination. RESULTS: Overall, first dose uptake was 49.1 % (23 619/48 095), with clinics with highest data completeness achieving close to 90% uptake during the pilot period. Refusals were very low (3.5%). There was no evidence of increases in the number of GBMSM attendances at pilot SHC. CONCLUSIONS: HPV vaccination has not caused important deviations to expected attendance patterns of GBMSM at SHC throughout the pilot phase. Overall, recorded initiation has been encouraging given known issues with data recording, as is current status of second and third dose completion. Attendances, vaccination initiation and completion will continue to be monitored alongside surveillance of anogenital warts diagnoses and of rectal HPV prevalence.

Epidemiology of genital warts in the British population: implications for HPV vaccination programmes.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of, and describe risk factors for, genital warts (GWs) in the British population, following the introduction of the bivalent (human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18) vaccination programme in girls, and prior to the switch to quadrivalent (HPV-6/11/16/18) vaccine (offering direct protection against GWs) and compare this with GW diagnoses in the prevaccination era. METHODS: Natsal-3, a probability sample survey in Britain, conducted in 2010-2012, interviewed 9902 men and women aged 16-44. Natsal-2, conducted in 1999-2001, surveyed 11 161 men and women aged 16-44. Both surveys collected data on sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infection diagnoses using computer-assisted interview methods. RESULTS: In Natsal-3, 3.8% and 4.6% of sexually experienced men and women reported ever having a diagnosis of GWs, with 1.3% of men and 1.7% of woman reporting a GWs diagnosis in the past 5 years. GWs were strongly associated with increasing partner numbers and condomless sex. Diagnoses were more frequent in men who have sex with men (MSM) (11.6% ever, 3.3% past 5 years) and in women reporting sex with women (10.8% ever, 3.6% past 5 years). In the age group who were eligible for vaccination at the time of Natsal-3 (16-20 years), a similar proportion of same-aged women reported a history of GWs in Natsal-2 (1.9%, 1.1-3.4) and Natsal-3 (2.6%, 1.5-4.4). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide essential parameters for mathematical models that inform cost-effectiveness analyses of HPV vaccination programmes. There was no evidence of population protection against GWs conferred by the bivalent vaccine. Even with vaccination of adolescent boys, vaccination should be offered to MSM attending sexual health clinics.

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of primary cytology versus human papillomavirus testing for cervical cancer screening in England.

OBJECTIVES: In England, human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is to replace cytological screening by 2019-2020. We conducted a model-based economic evaluation to project the long-term clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of routine cytology versus HPV testing. METHODS: An individual-based model of HPV acquisition, natural history, and cervical cancer screening was used to compare cytological screening and HPV testing with cytology triage for women aged 25-64 years (with either 3- or 5-year screening intervals for women aged under 50 years). The model was fitted to data from England's National Health Service Cervical Screening Programme. Both clinical and economic outcomes were projected to inform cost-effectiveness analyses. RESULTS: HPV testing is likely to decrease annual cytology testing (by 2.76 million), cervical cancer incidence (by 290 cases), and health system costs (by £13 million). It may increase the number of colposcopies, although this could be reduced without leading to more cancers compared with primary cytology by increasing the interval between screens to 5 years. The impact in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) depends on the quality of life weight given to colposcopies versus cancer. CONCLUSIONS: England's move from cytology to HPV screening may potentially be life-saving and cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness can be improved further by extending the interval between screens or using alternative triage methods such as partial or full genotyping.

Implementation and evaluation of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination pilot for men who have sex with men (MSM), England, April 2016 to March 2017.

BACKGROUND: Opportunistic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for men who have sex with men (MSM) was piloted in sexual health clinics (SHC) in England between 2016 and 2018. AIM: to evaluate the pilot's first year (April 2016-March 2017) in terms of feasibility, acceptability, uptake, impact and equity and interpret the outcome in the context of wide HPV vaccination policy. METHODS: Attendance and uptake data from routine SHC surveillance datasets and a cross-sectional survey administered to individuals receiving the vaccine were analysed. RESULTS: Among 18,875 eligible MSM, 8,580 (45.5%) were recorded as having received one HPV vaccine dose, decreasing slightly with increasing age, and uptake was higher in rural than urban areas. Survey results suggested that of those receiving the first dose of HPV vaccine, 8% were new attendees and that among those, less than 11% attended just to receive the vaccine. Of those having their first HPV vaccination, 95% indicated they would like to receive the next vaccine doses at the same clinic and 85% of patients reported accessing other services when visiting SHC for the first dose of vaccine. CONCLUSION: An opportunistic HPV vaccination programme for MSM can be delivered in an acceptable and, as far as can be evaluated, equitable manner, without major disruption to SHC and HIV clinics.

The Impact of the National HPV Vaccination Program in England Using the Bivalent HPV Vaccine: Surveillance of Type-Specific HPV in Young Females, 2010-2016.

Background: The national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization program was introduced in England in September 2008 using the bivalent vaccine. Methods: We collected residual vulva-vaginal swab specimens from 16 to 24-year-old women attending for chlamydia screening between 2010 and 2016 and tested for HPV DNA. We compared changes in type-specific (vaccine and nonvaccine) HPV prevalence over time and association with vaccination coverage. For women with known vaccination status, vaccine effectiveness was estimated. Results: HPV DNA testing was completed for 15459 specimens. Prevalence of HPV16/18 decreased between 2010/2011 and 2016 from 8.2% to 1.6% in 16-18 year olds and from 14.0% to 1.6% in 19-21 year olds. Declines were also seen for HPV31/33/45 (6.5% to 0.6% for 16-18 year olds and 8.6% to 2.6% for 19-21 year olds). Vaccine effectiveness for HPV16/18 was 82.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 60.6%-91.8%) and for HPV31/33/45 was 48.7% (95% CI, 20.8%-66.8%). Prevalence of HPV16/18 was compared to findings in 2007-2008 (prevaccination) and to predictions from Public Health England's mathematical model. Discussion: Eight years after the introduction of a national HPV vaccination program, substantial declines have occurred in HPV16/18 and HPV31/33/45. The prevalence of other high-risk HPV types has not changed.

Attendance of MSM at Genitourinary Medicine services in England: implications for selective HPV vaccination programme (a short communication).

BACKGROUND: Human papillomaviruses (HPV) immunisation programmes for female adolescents in the UK offer relatively little benefit to men who have sex with men (MSM). Targeted HPV vaccination for MSM may reduce the high incidence of HPV-related disease among MSM. We used national data from sexual health clinics to calculate the number of MSM attending these clinics throughout England from 2009 to 2014 and to identify their characteristics, to inform the implementation of a targeted HPV vaccination programme in MSM. METHODS: We used the Genitourinary Medicine Clinic Activity Dataset (GUMCADv2) to obtain data for men aged 15-70 years who had attended a GUM clinic in England from 2009 to 2014. We analysed both numbers of MSM attending and number of GUM attendances, age at first attendance, ethnicity and geographical area of the clinic in England. RESULTS: A total of 374 983 MSM attended sexual health services in England between 2009 and 2014. Median age of presentation was 32 years (IQR 25-41) and showed regional geographical variation. Of all men attending sexual health clinics in England, the highest proportion of those identifying as MSM was in London (21%). Excluding visits within 1 month of an initial attendance, 49% of all MSM re-attended within 12 months and 58% within 24 months. MSM aged ≥36 years reattended more frequently than younger MSM. 51% reattended at least twice within 24 months of initial visit. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of MSM reattend clinic at least once within a 24-month period, potentially facilitating the delivery of a three-dose HPV vaccination programme. This would reduce the burden on sexual health clinics and cost to local authorities due to extra visits if HPV vaccination were to be delivered through these services.

Human papillomavirus infection: protocol for a randomised controlled trial of imiquimod cream (5%) versus podophyllotoxin cream (0.15%), in combination with quadrivalent human papillomavirus or control vaccination in the treatment and prevention of recurrence of anogenital warts (HIPvac trial).

BACKGROUND: Anogenital warts are the second most common sexually transmitted infection diagnosed in sexual health services in England. About 90% of genital warts are caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6 or 11, and half of episodes diagnosed are recurrences. The best and most cost-effective treatment for patients with anogenital warts is unknown. The commonly used treatments are self-administered topical agents, podophyllotoxin (0.15% cream) or imiquimod (5% cream), or cryotherapy with liquid nitrogen. Quadrivalent HPV (qHPV) vaccination is effective in preventing infection, and disease, but whether it has any therapeutic effect is not known. METHODS AND DESIGN: To investigate the efficacy of clearance and prevention of recurrence of external anogenital warts by topical treatments, podophyllotoxin 0.15% cream or imiquimod 5% cream, in combination with a three-dose regimen of qHPV or control vaccination. 500 adult patients presenting with external anogenital warts with either a first or subsequent episode of anogenital warts will be entered into this randomised, controlled partially blinded 2 × 2 factorial trial. DISCUSSION: The trial is expected to provide the first high-quality evidence of the comparative efficacy and cost-effectiveness of the two topical treatments in current use, as well as investigate the potential benefit of HPV vaccination, in the management of anogenital warts. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered prior to starting recruitment under the following reference numbers: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) Registry - ISRCTN32729817 (registered 25 July 2014); European Union Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT) - 2013-002951-14 (registered 26 June 2013).

Impact and Cost-effectiveness of Selective Human Papillomavirus Vaccination of Men Who Have Sex With Men.

Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) have a high lifetime risk of anogenital warts and cancers related to infection with human papillomavirus (HPV). They also benefit less from herd protection than heterosexual males in settings with female-only HPV vaccination. Methods: We evaluated the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of offering vaccination to MSM who visit genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics. We used a mathematical model of HPV 6/11/16/18 sexual transmission within an MSM population in England, parameterized with sexual behaviour, GUM attendance, HPV prevalence, HIV prevalence, warts, and cancer incidence data. Interventions considered were offering HPV vaccination to either HIV-positive MSM or MSM regardless of HIV status, for age bands 16-25, 16-30, 16-35, and 16-40 years. Results: Substantial declines in anogenital warts and male HPV-related cancer incidence are projected to occur following an offer of vaccination to MSM. MSM not attending GUM clinics will partially benefit from herd protection. Offering vaccination to HIV-positive MSM up to age 40 is likely to be cost-effective if vaccine procurement and administration costs are below £96.50 a dose. At £48 a dose, offering vaccination to all MSM up to age 40 is likely to be cost-effective. Conclusions: Quadrivalent HPV vaccination of MSM via GUM clinics is likely to be an effective and cost-effective way of reducing the burden of HPV-related disease in MSM.

Chlamydia sequelae cost estimates used in current economic evaluations: does one-size-fit-all?

BACKGROUND: Current evidence suggests that chlamydia screening programmes can be cost-effective, conditional on assumptions within mathematical models. We explored differences in cost estimates used in published economic evaluations of chlamydia screening from seven countries (four papers each from UK and the Netherlands, two each from Sweden and Australia, and one each from Ireland, Canada and Denmark). METHODS: From these studies, we extracted management cost estimates for seven major chlamydia sequelae. In order to compare the influence of different sequelae considered in each paper and their corresponding management costs on the total cost per case of untreated chlamydia, we applied reported unit sequelae management costs considered in each paper to a set of untreated infection to sequela progression probabilities. All costs were adjusted to 2013/2014 Great British Pound (GBP) values. RESULTS: Sequelae management costs ranged from £171 to £3635 (pelvic inflammatory disease); £953 to £3615 (ectopic pregnancy); £546 to £6752 (tubal factor infertility); £159 to £3341 (chronic pelvic pain); £22 to £1008 (epididymitis); £11 to £1459 (neonatal conjunctivitis) and £433 to £3992 (neonatal pneumonia). Total cost of sequelae per case of untreated chlamydia ranged from £37 to £412. CONCLUSIONS: There was substantial variation in cost per case of chlamydia sequelae used in published chlamydia screening economic evaluations, which likely arose from different assumptions about disease management pathways and the country perspectives taken. In light of this, when interpreting these studies, the reader should be satisfied that the cost estimates used sufficiently reflect the perspective taken and current disease management for their respective context.

Filling in the gaps: estimating numbers of chlamydia tests and diagnoses by age group and sex before and during the implementation of the English National Screening Programme, 2000 to 2012.

To inform mathematical modelling of the impact of chlamydia screening in England since 2000, a complete picture of chlamydia testing is needed. Monitoring and surveillance systems evolved between 2000 and 2012. Since 2012, data on publicly funded chlamydia tests and diagnoses have been collected nationally. However, gaps exist for earlier years. We collated available data on chlamydia testing and diagnosis rates among 15-44-year-olds by sex and age group for 2000-2012. Where data were unavailable, we applied data- and evidence-based assumptions to construct plausible minimum and maximum estimates and set bounds on uncertainty. There was a large range between estimates in years when datasets were less comprehensive (2000-2008); smaller ranges were seen hereafter. In 15-19-year-old women in 2000, the estimated diagnosis rate ranged between 891 and 2,489 diagnoses per 100,000 persons. Testing and diagnosis rates increased between 2000 and 2012 in women and men across all age groups using minimum or maximum estimates, with greatest increases seen among 15-24-year-olds. Our dataset can be used to parameterise and validate mathematical models and serve as a reference dataset to which trends in chlamydia-related complications can be compared. Our analysis highlights the complexities of combining monitoring and surveillance datasets.

Population-Level Effects of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Programs on Infections with Nonvaccine Genotypes.

We analyzed human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalences during prevaccination and postvaccination periods to consider possible changes in nonvaccine HPV genotypes after introduction of vaccines that confer protection against 2 high-risk types, HPV16 and HPV18. Our meta-analysis included 9 studies with data for 13,886 girls and women ≤19 years of age and 23,340 women 20-24 years of age. We found evidence of cross-protection for HPV31 among the younger age group after vaccine introduction but little evidence for reductions of HPV33 and HPV45. For the group this same age group, we also found slight increases in 2 nonvaccine high-risk HPV types (HPV39 and HPV52) and in 2 possible high-risk types (HPV53 and HPV73). However, results between age groups and vaccines used were inconsistent, and the increases had possible alternative explanations; consequently, these data provided no clear evidence for type replacement. Continued monitoring of these HPV genotypes is important.

Is chlamydia screening and testing in Britain reaching young adults at risk of infection? Findings from the third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3).

BACKGROUND: In the context of widespread opportunistic chlamydia screening among young adults, we aimed to quantify chlamydia testing and diagnosis among 16-24 year olds in Britain in relation to risk factors for prevalent chlamydia infection. METHODS: Using data from sexually experienced (≥1 lifetime sexual partner) 16-year-old to 24-year-old participants in Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (conducted 2010-2012), we explored socio-demographic and behavioural factors associated with prevalent chlamydia infection (detected in urine; n=1832), self-reported testing and self-reported diagnosis in the last year (both n=3115). RESULTS: Chlamydia prevalence was 3.1% (95% CI 2.2% to 4.3%) in women and 2.3% (1.5% to 3.4%) in men. A total of 12.3% of women and 5.3% men had a previous chlamydia diagnosis. Factors associated with prevalent infection were also associated with testing and diagnosis (eg, increasing numbers of sexual partners), with some exceptions. For example, chlamydia prevalence was higher in women living in more deprived areas, whereas testing was not. In men, prevalence was higher in 20-24 than 16-19 year olds but testing was lower. Thirty per cent of women and 53.7% of men with ≥2 new sexual partners in the last year had not recently tested. CONCLUSIONS: In 2010-2012 in Britain, the proportion of young adults reporting chlamydia testing was generally higher in those reporting factors associated with chlamydia. However, many of those with risk factors had not been recently tested, leaving potential for undiagnosed infections. Greater screening and prevention efforts among individuals in deprived areas and those reporting risk factors for chlamydia may reduce undiagnosed prevalence and transmission.