Does Residing in a Neighborhood of High Social Participation Postpone Deterioration in Health among Middle-Aged Adults? A Multilevel Survival Analysis in Japan.

Social participation (SP) is known to have a favorable impact on an individual's health. This study examined whether residing in a neighborhood with a high SP level would be predictive of delayed deterioration in health outcomes, even after controlling for individual SP. With the 14-wave longitudinal data of 32,388 individuals (15,749 men and 16,639 women) aged 50-59 years residing in 2,477 neighborhoods in 2005, we used multilevel Cox proportional hazards models to examine the impact of neighborhood SP on the onset of problems in activities of daily living (ADL), poor self-rated health, and psychological distress. Residing in a neighborhood with high SP levels modestly postponed the onset of health problems in individuals. The hazard ratio (HR) of ADL problems in response to residing in a neighborhood with above-average SP levels was 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85-0.99) and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87-1.00) for men and women, respectively, even after controlling for an individual's SP and other attributes. The results for other health outcomes showed a similar pattern. These findings suggest that high neighborhood SP has a favorable impact on health among middle-aged adults, independent of individual SP. Policy measures to enhance and promote neighborhood SP are thus needed in terms of public health.

Longitudinal Association Between Oral Status and Cognitive Decline Using Fixed-effects Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although the feasibility of randomized trials for investigating the long-term association between oral health and cognitive decline is low, deriving causal inferences from observational data is challenging. We aimed to investigate the association between poor oral status and subjective cognitive complaints (SCC) using fixed-effects model to eliminate the confounding effect of unobserved time-invariant factors. METHODS: We used data from Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES) which was conducted in 2010, 2013, and 2016. ß regression coefficients and 95% confidence intervals [CIs] were calculated using fixed-effects models to determine the effect of deteriorating oral status on developing SCC. Onset of SCC was evaluated using the Kihon Checklist-Cognitive function score. Four oral status variables were used: awareness of swallowing difficulty, decline in masticatory function, dry mouth, and number of teeth. RESULTS: We included 13,594 participants (55.8% women) without SCC at baseline. The mean age was 72.4 (standard deviation [SD], 5.1) years for men and 72.4 (SD, 4.9) years for women. Within the 6-year follow-up, 26.6% of men and 24.9% of women developed SCC. The probability of developing SCC was significantly higher when participants acquired swallowing difficulty (ß = 0.088; 95% CI, 0.065-0.111 for men and ß = 0.077; 95% CI, 0.057-0.097 for women), decline in masticatory function (ß = 0.039; 95% CI, 0.021-0.057 for men and ß = 0.030; 95% CI, 0.013-0.046 for women), dry mouth (ß = 0.026; 95% CI, 0.005-0.048 for men and ß = 0.064; 95% CI, 0.045-0.083 for women), and tooth loss (ß = 0.043; 95% CI, 0.001-0.085 for men and ß = 0.058; 95% CI, 0.015-0.102 for women). CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that good oral health needs to be maintained to prevent the development of SCC, which increases the risk for future dementia.

Heated Tobacco Products Have Reached Younger or More Affluent People in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The trend of the diffusion of heated tobacco products (HTPs) is a great concern because HTPs have become available worldwide. This study examined the sociodemographic characteristics of HTPs users in Japan, where HTPs were first launched. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used data from an online survey conducted in 2017. A total of 4,926 participants, aged 20-69 years, were included. The dependent variable was the type of tobacco products used. The independent variables were age and equivalent income. Two analyses estimated the odds ratios (ORs) for 1) being smokers compared to "non-smokers," and 2) being "HTP smokers" compared to "only combustible cigarette smokers." Analyses were stratified by sex. Educational attainment and occupation were also used in the sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The percentages of "non-smokers," "only combustible cigarette smokers," and "HTP smokers" were 82.8%, 14.2%, and 3.0%, respectively. When compared to the oldest participants (aged 60-69), the youngest participants (aged 20-29) tended to be "HTP smokers" (OR 7.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.09-20.22 for men and OR 9.28; 95% CI, 2.14-40.28 for women). Compared to participants with the lowest incomes (<2 million), those with the highest incomes (≥4 million) tended to use HTPs (OR 2.93; 95% CI, 1.56-5.49 in men and OR 1.82; 95% CI, 0.73-4.54 in women). These trends were consistent when analyses included only smokers. There were consistent results in other SES measurements, including educational attainment and occupation. CONCLUSIONS: Younger or more affluent people tended to use HTPs, although smoking rates among these populations were generally lower. New tobacco control efforts are required.

Psychological distress after the Great East Japan Earthquake: two multilevel 6-year prospective analyses.

BACKGROUND: The Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 led to the relocation of 300 000 survivors. Studies following disasters focus primarily on data collected in the immediate aftermath and neglect the influence of wider community factors. AIMS: A three-level prospective study examining associations between survivors' psychological distress and individual- and social-level factors in the 6 years following a complex disaster. METHOD: We drew on two multi-wave data collections in the 6 years after the earthquake, using residents from different forms of housing. Sample 1 included six waves of private-housing residents from 2011 to 2016 (n = 1084 per wave), sample 2 five waves of residents living in prefabricated housing from 2012 to 2016 (n = 1515 per wave). We analysed prospective associations between distress and time (level 1), pre-existing disorders and disaster experiences and behaviours (level 2) and city-wide measures of support and physical activity (level 3). RESULTS: Multilevel models with random coefficients demonstrated greater distress in earlier waves (samples 1 and 2 respectively, adjusted ß = -15 and ß = -0.16, P < 0.001), among female respondents (ß = 0.58, P = 0.01 and ß = 1.74, P = 0.001), in those with a previous psychiatric history (ß = 2.76, ß = 2.06, P < 0.001) with diminished levels of activity post-earthquake (ß = 1.40, ß = 1.51, P < 0.001) and those lacking in social support (ß = 1.95, ß = 1.51, P < 0.001). Support from spouses and friends was most protective of psychological health. City-level support was negatively associated with distress, but only among those in prefabricated housing. CONCLUSIONS: Psychological distress diminished with time, but varied across gender, psychiatric history, housing, levels of activity and availability of social support. Practitioners should consider individual- and city-level factors when devising effective interventions.

[Trajectory of evacuees' health condition after the Great East Japan Earthquake: Health survey of residents in prefabricated temporary housing and private rented housing in the Miyagi prefecture].

Objectives The Great East Japan Earthquake occurred in March 2011. As of November 2018, 1100 survivors of its still lived in the Miyagi prefecture's temporary housing. Previous studies revealed that the residential relocation to temporary housing from their own houses due to damages caused by the earthquake exacerbated the evacuees' health. However, there is a lack of long-term observation of the trajectory of their health conditions in temporary housing. To the best of our knowledge, there is no study involving residents in public disaster housing. The aim of the present study was to reveal the trajectory of health conditions of residents of temporary and public disaster housing.Method This repeated cross-sectional study included residents aged 20 years and older, residing in private rented housing, prefabricated temporary housing, and public disaster housing. The survey period lasted for six years (2011 to 2017). We used self-rated health as the dependent variable, the year of the survey and type of house as independent variables, and sex and age as covariates. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated using multivariate logistic regression analysis.Results In total, 179,255 participants were included in this study. The average age was the highest among the residents of public disaster housing: 63.0 years in 2017. The number of residents who reported poor self-rated health declined yearly of private rented housing, but not of prefabricated temporary housing. The highest number of residents reporting poor self-rated health was from public disaster housing, compared to other temporary housing. Multivariate analysis showed that self-rated health improved in recent years (P for trend <0.001). Compared to the residents of private rented housing, those from public disaster housing reported poorer health conditions (aOR, 1.20 ; 95% CI, 1.15-1.27), although no significant difference was observed among the residents of prefabricated housing.Conclusion Health conditions of residents of temporary housing and public disaster housing tended to improve on a yearly basis. Residents of public disaster housing reported poor health. Therefore, monitoring and adequate intervention should be offered.

Socioeconomic inequalities in low back pain among older people: the JAGES cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Low back pain is an important public health issue across the world. However, it is unclear whether socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with low back pain. This study determines an association between SES and low back pain among older people. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data derived from the year 2013 across 30 Japanese municipalities. The survey was conducted between October 2013 to December 2013. Functionally independent community-dwelling older adults aged 65 and above (n = 26,037) were eligible for the study. Multilevel Poisson regression analysis with a robust variance estimator was used to examine the association between SES and low back pain. Self-reported low back pain in the past year was used as a dependent variable. Educational attainment, past occupation, equivalized household income, wealth, and subjective economic situation represented SES and were separately analyzed as independent variables, adjusted for covariates including age and sex. RESULTS: The prevalence of low back pain was 63.4%. Overall, lower SES were more likely to suffer from low back pain compared with that for the highest. First, as for the educational attainment, the prevalence ratio (PR) (95% credible interval (CI)) for the lowest level was 1.07 (1.02-1.12). Second, as for the past occupation, the PR (95% CI) for the blue-collared workers compared with professionals was 1.06 (1.01-1.11). Third, as for the equalized household income, the PRs (95% CI) for lower middle and the lowest income levels were 1.08 (1.02-1.13) and 1.16 (1.10-1.23), respectively. Fourth, as for the wealth, the PRs (95% CI) for lower middle and the lowest wealth levels were 1.11 (1.04-1.19) and 1.18 (1.11-1.27), respectively. Fifth, as for the subjective economic situation, the PRs (95% CI) for lower middle and the lowest financial conditions were 1.18 (1.10-1.26) and 1.32 (1.22-1.44), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Significant socioeconomic inequalities were observed in low back pain among older individuals in Japan. Policymakers and clinicians must understand the nature of these inequalities.

Does the Type of Temporary Housing Make a Difference in Social Participation and Health for Evacuees of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami? A Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Although the majority of survivors of the huge Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami evacuated to two types of temporary housings, prefabricated housing and rented housing, health effects of these different environments were unclear. We examined whether prevalent social participation in prefabricated housing brought larger health benefits than in rented housing using the largest health survey data of the disaster survivors. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used a 2012 survey by the Miyagi Prefectural Government, in which almost all of evacuees were targeted (response rate: 61.6%). Self-rated health (SRH) and psychological distress measured via K6 score were the dependent variables, and social participation was the independent variable. Odds ratios of the social participation on health variables were estimated using logistic regression models. To assess the contribution of social participation, the population attributable fraction (PAF) was estimated. RESULTS: The participants lived in prefabricated and rented housing numbered 19,726 and 28,270, respectively. Participants in prefabricated housing had poorer SRH and K6 than those in rented housing. The proportions of participants engaging in social participation of prefabricated and rented housing were 38.2% and 15.4%, respectively. The absence of social participation was significantly associated with poor SRH and K6 among participants in both housing types. The PAFs of social participation with good SRH were 39.5% in prefabricated housing and 14.4% in rented housing. For K6, the PAFs were 47.1% and 19.5% in prefabricated and rented housing, respectively. CONCLUSION: Compared to the residents in rented housing, residents in prefabricated housing had more frequent opportunities for social participation, which was associated with larger health benefits.

Does Cigarette Smoking Increase Traffic Accident Death During 20 Years Follow-up in Japan? The Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Annually, more than 1.2 million deaths due to road traffic accidents occur worldwide. Although previous studies have examined the association between cigarette smoking and injury death, the mortality outcome often included non-traffic accident-related deaths. This study aimed to examine the association between cigarette smoking and traffic accident death. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study using data from the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study conducted from 1993 through 2013. The cohort included 97,078 adults (33,138 men and 63,940 women) living in Ibaraki Prefecture who were aged 40-79 years at an annual health checkup in 1993. We divided participants into four smoking status groups: non-smokers, ex-smokers, and current smokers who smoked <20 and ≥20 cigarettes per day. Hazard ratios (HRs) of traffic accident death were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During 20 years of follow-up, the average person-years of follow-up were 16.8 and 18.2 in men and women, respectively. Among men, after adjusting for age and alcohol intake, HRs for traffic accident death among current smokers of <20 cigarettes/day and ≥20 cigarettes/day compared to non-smokers were 1.32 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-2.20) and 1.54 (95% CI, 0.99-2.39), respectively. In contrast, among women, we found no association between smoking status and traffic accident deaths. CONCLUSION: In this prospective cohort study, we found a positive association, though marginally significant, between smoking and traffic accident death among men in Japan. Among women, because of the smaller number of deaths among smokers, adequate estimation could not be obtained.

Income and education are associated with transitions in health status among community-dwelling older people in Japan: the JAGES cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Health inequalities are an emerging issue in ageing societies, but inequalities in pre-frailty, which is suffered by almost half of older people, are mostly unknown. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the association between the socio-economic status (SES) and changes across pre-frailty, frailty, disability and all-cause mortality. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study across 23 Japanese municipalities between 2010 and 2013. Functionally independent community-dwelling older adults aged ≥65 years (n = 65 952) in 2010 were eligible for the study. The baseline survey was conducted from 2010 to 2012, and the self-reporting questionnaires were mailed to 126 438 community-dwelling older adults [64.8% (81 980/126 438) response rate]. The follow-up survey was conducted in 2013. Overall, 65 952 individuals were followed up [80.4% (65 952/81 980) follow-up rate]. The health status was classified into five groups: robust; pre-frailty; frailty; disability and death. We conducted three multinomial logistic regression models stratified by the initial disability status. Educational attainment and equivalized household income were separately added to the models as exposures after adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: Participants with the lowest educational level were less likely to recover from pre-frailty to robust compared with those with the highest level [odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) = 0.84 (0.76-0.93)]. The participants with the lowest income level were also less likely to recover from pre-frailty to robust compared with those with the highest level [OR (95% CI) = 0.80 (0.69-0.91)]. CONCLUSIONS: Older individuals with a lower SES were less likely to recover from a pre-frailty status.

Association between type 2 diabetes and risk of cancer mortality: a pooled analysis of over 771,000 individuals in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aims of the study were to evaluate the association between type 2 diabetes and the risk of death from any cancer and specific cancers in East and South Asians. METHODS: Pooled analyses were conducted of 19 prospective population-based cohorts included in the Asia Cohort Consortium, comprising data from 658,611 East Asians and 112,686 South Asians. HRs were used to compare individuals with diabetes at baseline with those without diabetes for the risk of death from any cancer and from site-specific cancers, including cancers of the oesophagus, stomach, colorectum, colon, rectum, liver, bile duct, pancreas, lung, breast, endometrium, cervix, ovary, prostate, bladder, kidney and thyroid, as well as lymphoma and leukaemia. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 12.7 years, 37,343 cancer deaths (36,667 in East Asians and 676 in South Asians) were identified. Baseline diabetes status was statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of death from any cancer (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.21, 1.31). Significant positive associations with diabetes were observed for cancers of the colorectum (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.26, 1.57), liver (HR 2.05; 95% CI 1.77, 2.38), bile duct (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.04, 1.92), gallbladder (HR 1.33; 95% CI 1.10, 1.61), pancreas (HR 1.53; 95% CI 1.32, 1.77), breast (HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.34, 2.19), endometrium (HR 2.73; 95% CI 1.53, 4.85), ovary (HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.06, 2.42), prostate (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.09, 1.82), kidney (HR 1.84; 95% CI 1.28, 2.64) and thyroid (HR 1.99; 95% CI 1.03, 3.86), as well as lymphoma (HR 1.39; 95% CI 1.04, 1.86). Diabetes was not statistically significantly associated with the risk of death from leukaemia and cancers of the bladder, cervix, oesophagus, stomach and lung. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Diabetes was associated with a 26% increased risk of death from any cancer in Asians. The pattern of associations with specific cancers suggests the need for better control (prevention, detection, management) of the growing epidemic of diabetes (as well as obesity), in order to reduce cancer mortality.

Impact of Pain on Incident Risk of Disability in Elderly Japanese: Cause-specific Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although several cross-sectional studies have reported that pain is associated with functional disability in the elderly, data regarding a longitudinal association between pain and disability are inconsistent. This study aimed to investigate the association of pain severity with subsequent functional disability due to all causes as well as stroke, dementia, and joint disease/fracture. METHODS: The authors conducted a prospective cohort study of 13,702 Japanese individuals aged 65 yr or older. Information regarding pain severity during the previous 4 weeks and other lifestyle factors was collected via questionnaire in 2006. Data on the incidence of functional disability were retrieved from the Long-term Care Insurance database. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for incident functional disability. RESULTS: The authors documented 2,686 (19.6%) cases of incident functional disability. The multivariate hazard ratio of functional disability was 1.15 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.31) among respondents with moderate pain and 1.31 (95% CI, 1.12 to 1.54) among respondents with severe pain in comparison with those without pain (P trend < 0.001). These positive associations were particularly remarkable for disability due to joint disease/fracture: the multivariate hazard ratio was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.37 to 2.58) for moderate pain and 2.76 (95% CI, 1.93 to 3.95) for severe pain (P trend < 0.001). There was a negative association between pain severity and disability due to dementia (P trend = 0.041) and no significant association between pain severity and disability due to stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Among elderly Japanese individuals, the authors found a significant positive association between pain severity and future incident functional disability.

Citrus consumption and incident dementia in elderly Japanese: the Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study.

Although some experimental biological studies have indicated that citrus may have preventive effects against cognitive impairment, no cohort study has yet examined the relationship between citrus consumption and incident dementia. In a baseline survey, we collected data on daily citrus intake (categorised as ≤2, 3-4 times/week or almost every day) and consumption of other foods using a FFQ, and used a self-reported questionnaire to collect data on other covariates. Data on incident dementia were retrieved from the Japanese Long-term Care Insurance database. A multivariate-adjusted Cox model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % CI for incident dementia according to citrus consumption. Among 13 373 participants, the 5·7-year incidence of dementia was 8·6 %. In comparison with participants who consumed citrus ≤2 times/week, the multivariate-adjusted HR for incident dementia among those did so 3-4 times/week and almost every day was 0·92 (95 % CI 0·80, 1·07) and 0·86 (95 % CI 0·73, 1·01), respectively (P trend=0·065). The inverse association persisted after excluding participants whose dementia events had occurred in the first 2 years of follow-up. The multivariate HR was 1·00 (reference) for ≤2 times/week, 0·82 (95 % CI 0·69, 0·98) for 3-4 times/week and 0·77 (95 % CI 0·64, 0·93) for almost every day (P trend=0·006). The present findings suggest that frequent citrus consumption was associated with a lower risk of incident dementia, even after adjustment for possible confounding factors.

Changes in time spent walking and the risk of incident dementia in older Japanese people: the Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study.

Background: the impact of long-term changes in physical activity during adulthood in the context of primary prevention of dementia has not been addressed previously. Objective: to study the relationship between changes in time spent walking after middle age and incident dementia in older Japanese individuals. Methodology: we conducted a cohort study of 6,909 disability-free Japanese individuals aged ≥65 years who lived in Ohsaki City, Japan. In both 1994 and 2006, the individual amount of time spent walking per day was assessed using a self-reported questionnaire (<0.5 h, 0.5-1 h or ≥1 h). Based on these three categories of exposure at the two points, participants were categorised into nine groups according to changes in time spent walking. Data on incident dementia were retrieved from the public Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) Database, in which participants were followed up for 5.7 years (between April 2007 and November 2012). The Cox model was used for estimating the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of incident dementia. Results: the 5.7-year incidence of dementia was 9.2%. Compared with persons who remained in the lowest category of time spent walking (<0.5 h/day in both 1994 and 2006), persons who remained in the highest category (≥1 h/day in both 1994 and 2006) had a significantly lower risk of incident dementia: the multivariate-adjusted HR (95% confidence intervals) was 0.72 (0.53 and 0.97). Conclusions: these results suggest that maintaining a higher level of physical activity after middle age may be a key strategy for prevention of dementia in older age.

Green Tea Consumption and the Risk of Incident Dementia in Elderly Japanese: The Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study.

OBJECTIVE: Biologic studies have shown that certain components of green tea may have protective effects on neurocognition. However, because of the lack of human epidemiologic studies, the impact of green tea consumption on the incidence of dementia has never been confirmed. The objective of this cohort study was to clarify the association between green tea consumption and incident dementia. METHODS: In this 5.7-year prospective cohort study, using a questionnaire, information on daily green tea consumption and other lifestyle factors was collected from elderly Japanese individuals aged 65 years or more. Data on incident dementia were retrieved from the public Long-term Care Insurance Database. RESULTS: Among 13,645 participants, the 5.7-year rate of incident dementia was 8.7%. More frequent green tea consumption was associated with a lower risk of incident dementia (hazard ratio for ≥5 cups/day versus <1 cup/day: 0.73; 95% confidence interval: 0.61-0.87). The lower risk of incident dementia was consistent even after selecting participants who did not have subjective memory complaints at the baseline. CONCLUSION: Green tea consumption is significantly associated with a lower risk of incident dementia.

Awareness and health consciousness regarding the national health plan "Health Japan 21" (2nd edition) among the Japanese population in 2013 and 2014.

Objectives To examine the prevalence of health consciousness regarding "Health Japan 21" (2nd edition) among the Japanese population, we conducted a telephone survey of a sample extracted randomly from the whole nation in 2013 and 2014.Methods We extracted 1800 men and women with 150 persons for each gender and 10-year age group (6 age groups ranging from 20 years to 70 years and older) using Random Digital Dialing sampling. Each participant was asked about 1) recognition of the following items: "Health Japan 21," "healthy life expectancy," "metabolic syndrome (MetS)," "chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)," "locomotive syndrome," "Active Guide," "WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control," and "Smart Life Project" and 2) health consciousness toward the following: "health examination taken within the past one year," "smoking status," and "the amount of vegetables considered desirable to consume per day for health." We performed simple tabulation of the collected answers and cross-tabulation by sex and age groups, respectively. For each question about recognition, we categorized "I know the name and meaning" and "I know the name but not the meaning" as "awareness." We compared data between 2013 and 2014, sexes, and age groups, using chi-squared test.Results In 2013, the top 5 items with high awareness were "MetS" (96.2%), "COPD" (51.1%), "healthy life expectancy" (34.2%), "locomotive syndrome" (30.2%), and "WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control" (28.0%). Moreover, awareness of "healthy life expectancy," "locomotive syndrome," and "Active Guide" were significantly higher in 2014 than in 2013. Meanwhile, the proportion of participants who correctly chose "350 grams" as "the desirable amount of vegetables to consume per day" was 41.6% in 2013 and became significantly higher at 50.1% in 2014. In 2013, awareness of "healthy life expectancy," "COPD," and "locomotive syndrome" and the proportion of correct answers for "the desirable amount of vegetables to consume per day" were significantly higher among women than among men. In 2013, there were significant differences among age groups in awareness of "MetS," "COPD," "healthy life expectancy," and "locomotive syndrome" and the proportion of correct answers for "the desirable amount of vegetables to consume per day."Conclusion Awareness of "healthy life expectancy," "locomotive syndrome," and health consciousness of "the desirable amount of vegetables to consume per day" were significantly higher in 2014 than in 2013. There were discrepancies on respective items among both sexes and age groups. Therefore, interventions for groups with lower awareness or health consciousness may be required.

[Health effects of interventions to promote physical activity in survivors of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. A longitudinal study].

OBJECTIVES: Interventions that promote physical activity to prevent psychological distress and disuse syndromes were carried out in disaster-stricken areas. However, the effect of these interventions to promote physical activity in disaster-stricken areas has not yet been fully clarified. The purpose of this study was to examine the health effects of promoting physical activity in a disaster-stricken area. METHODS: We conducted an exercise intervention as part of a health survey project among residents of Ishinomaki-city, Miyagi, Japan in 2012. To determine if changes in health condition differed between intervention participants and nonparticipants, health condition data from 81 participants were compared with data from 81 nonparticipants selected by propensity score matching. Factors including sex, age, original address (pre-quake), and six outcome variables (psychological distress [K6 score], subjective health status, sleep duration, sleep quality, frequency of outings, and time spent walking) were used for matching. A linear mixed model was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in K6 score between participants and nonparticipants (P=0.913). Significant improvements were observed in subjective health status (P=0.011) and outing frequency (P=0.002), but not in other outcome variables. CONCLUSION: Subjective health status and outing frequency were significantly improved among participants of the exercise intervention. Exercise intervention may be an effective public health strategy in disaster-stricken areas.

[Prediction of future cost savings in long-term care and medical care if Japan achieves the health expectancy target of Health Japan 21 (second term)].

OBJECTIVES: An earlier study using the data from the Japanese Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) system reported a scenario for achieving the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term): future gains in health expectancy from 2011 to 2020 must be larger than gains in expectancy. According to this scenario (the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario), the proportion of disability (cases≥Care Level 2 in LTCI disability certification) will gradually decrease by 1% per year from 2011. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost savings in long-term care and medical care if the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario is achieved. METHODS: We used data from Japanese national statistics and a survey conducted in Osaki city, Miyagi. The natural course of disability cases (≥Care Level 2) was estimated under the assumption that the future population composition would be equal to the population projections for Japan and the future proportion of disabilities for each age grade would be equal to that of 2010. Then, the decrease in the number of disabilities based on the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario was calculated. Finally, the cost savings in long-term care and medical care associated with the assumed decrease in the number of disability cases was calculated. RESULTS: When the disability cases (≥Care Level 2) were shifted to "no disability certification (not requiring care)," a total estimated cost reduction of 5,291 billion yen was achieved from 2011 to 2020. Furthermore, a total estimated reduction of 2,491 billion yen was achieved for the same period when all disability shifts to "Care Level 1" were accounted for. CONCLUSION: As a rough calculation, if the Health Japan 21 (second term) target is achieved, approximately 2,500-5,300 billion yen will be saved in the cost of long-term care and medical care.