Beyond SNP heritability: Polygenicity and discoverability of phenotypes estimated with a univariate Gaussian mixture model.

Estimating the polygenicity (proportion of causally associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)) and discoverability (effect size variance) of causal SNPs for human traits is currently of considerable interest. SNP-heritability is proportional to the product of these quantities. We present a basic model, using detailed linkage disequilibrium structure from a reference panel of 11 million SNPs, to estimate these quantities from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics. We apply the model to diverse phenotypes and validate the implementation with simulations. We find model polygenicities (as a fraction of the reference panel) ranging from ≃ 2 × 10-5 to ≃ 4 × 10-3, with discoverabilities similarly ranging over two orders of magnitude. A power analysis allows us to estimate the proportions of phenotypic variance explained additively by causal SNPs reaching genome-wide significance at current sample sizes, and map out sample sizes required to explain larger portions of additive SNP heritability. The model also allows for estimating residual inflation (or deflation from over-correcting of z-scores), and assessing compatibility of replication and discovery GWAS summary statistics.

Beyond heritability: improving discoverability in imaging genetics.

Structural neuroimaging measures based on magnetic resonance imaging have been at the forefront of imaging genetics. Global efforts to ensure homogeneity of measurements across study sites have enabled large-scale imaging genetic projects, accumulating nearly 50K samples for genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, not many novel genetic variants have been identified by these GWAS, despite the high heritability of structural neuroimaging measures. Here, we discuss the limitations of using heritability as a guidance for assessing statistical power of GWAS, and highlight the importance of discoverability-which is the power to detect genetic variants for a given phenotype depending on its unique genomic architecture and GWAS sample size. Further, we present newly developed methods that boost genetic discovery in imaging genetics. By redefining imaging measures independent of traditional anatomical conventions, it is possible to improve discoverability, enabling identification of more genetic effects. Moreover, by leveraging enrichment priors from genomic annotations and independent GWAS of pleiotropic traits, we can better characterize effect size distributions, and identify reliable and replicable loci associated with structural neuroimaging measures. Statistical tools leveraging novel insights into the genetic discoverability of human traits, promises to accelerate the identification of genetic underpinnings underlying brain structural variation.

Relationship between kurtosis and bi-exponential characterization of high b-value diffusion-weighted imaging: application to prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: High b-value diffusion-weighted imaging has application in the detection of cancerous tissue across multiple body sites. Diffusional kurtosis and bi-exponential modeling are two popular model-based techniques, whose performance in relation to each other has yet to be fully explored. PURPOSE: To determine the relationship between excess kurtosis and signal fractions derived from bi-exponential modeling in the detection of suspicious prostate lesions. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed patients with normal prostate tissue (n = 12) or suspicious lesions (n = 13, one lesion per patient), as determined by a radiologist whose clinical care included a high b-value diffusion series. The observed signal intensity was modeled using a bi-exponential decay, from which the signal fraction of the slow-moving component was derived ( SFs). In addition, the excess kurtosis was calculated using the signal fractions and ADCs of the two exponentials ( KCOMP). As a comparison, the kurtosis was also calculated using the cumulant expansion for the diffusion signal ( KCE). RESULTS: Both K and KCE were found to increase with SFs within the range of SFs commonly found within the prostate. Voxel-wise receiver operating characteristic performance of SFs, KCE, and KCOMP in discriminating between suspicious lesions and normal prostate tissue was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.85 - 0.87), 0.69 (95% CI = 0.68-0.70), and 0.86 (95% CI = 0.86-0.87), respectively. CONCLUSION: In a two-component diffusion environment, KCOMP is a scaled value of SFs and is thus able to discriminate suspicious lesions with equal precision . KCE provides a computationally inexpensive approximation of kurtosis but does not provide the same discriminatory abilities as SFs and KCOMP.

Estimating rare events in biochemical systems using conditional sampling.

The paper focuses on development of variance reduction strategies to estimate rare events in biochemical systems. Obtaining this probability using brute force Monte Carlo simulations in conjunction with the stochastic simulation algorithm (Gillespie's method) is computationally prohibitive. To circumvent this, important sampling tools such as the weighted stochastic simulation algorithm and the doubly weighted stochastic simulation algorithm have been proposed. However, these strategies require an additional step of determining the important region to sample from, which is not straightforward for most of the problems. In this paper, we apply the subset simulation method, developed as a variance reduction tool in the context of structural engineering, to the problem of rare event estimation in biochemical systems. The main idea is that the rare event probability is expressed as a product of more frequent conditional probabilities. These conditional probabilities are estimated with high accuracy using Monte Carlo simulations, specifically the Markov chain Monte Carlo method with the modified Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Generating sample realizations of the state vector using the stochastic simulation algorithm is viewed as mapping the discrete-state continuous-time random process to the standard normal random variable vector. This viewpoint opens up the possibility of applying more sophisticated and efficient sampling schemes developed elsewhere to problems in stochastic chemical kinetics. The results obtained using the subset simulation method are compared with existing variance reduction strategies for a few benchmark problems, and a satisfactory improvement in computational time is demonstrated.

Serine-129 phosphorylation of α-synuclein is an activity-dependent trigger for physiologic protein-protein interactions and synaptic function.

Phosphorylation of α-synuclein at the serine-129 site (α-syn Ser129P) is an established pathologic hallmark of synucleinopathies and a therapeutic target. In physiologic states, only a fraction of α-syn is phosphorylated at this site, and most studies have focused on the pathologic roles of this post-translational modification. We found that unlike wild-type (WT) α-syn, which is widely expressed throughout the brain, the overall pattern of α-syn Ser129P is restricted, suggesting intrinsic regulation. Surprisingly, preventing Ser129P blocked activity-dependent synaptic attenuation by α-syn-thought to reflect its normal function. Exploring mechanisms, we found that neuronal activity augments Ser129P, which is a trigger for protein-protein interactions that are necessary for mediating α-syn function at the synapse. AlphaFold2-driven modeling and membrane-binding simulations suggest a scenario where Ser129P induces conformational changes that facilitate interactions with binding partners. Our experiments offer a new conceptual platform for investigating the role of Ser129 in synucleinopathies, with implications for drug development.

Identification of genetic heterogeneity of Alzheimer's disease across age.

The risk of APOE for Alzheimer's disease (AD) is modified by age. Beyond APOE, the polygenic architecture may also be heterogeneous across age. We aim to investigate age-related genetic heterogeneity of AD and identify genomic loci with differential effects across age. Stratified gene-based genome-wide association studies and polygenic variation analyses were performed in the younger (60-79 years, N = 14,895) and older (≥80 years, N = 6559) age-at-onset groups using Alzheimer's Disease Genetics Consortium data. We showed a moderate genetic correlation (rg = 0.64) between the two age groups, supporting genetic heterogeneity. Heritability explained by variants on chromosome 19 (harboring APOE) was significantly larger in younger than in older onset group (p < 0.05). APOE region, BIN1, OR2S2, MS4A4E, and PICALM were identified at the gene-based genome-wide significance (p < 2.73 × 10-6) with larger effects at younger age (except MS4A4E). For the novel gene OR2S2, we further performed leave-one-out analyses, which showed consistent effects across subsamples. Our results suggest using genetically more homogeneous individuals may help detect additional susceptible loci.

Determining Genetic Causal Variants Through Multivariate Regression Using Mixture Model Penalty.

With the availability of high-throughput sequencing data, identification of genetic causal variants accurately requires the efficient incorporation of function annotation data into the optimization routine. This motivates the need for development of novel methods for genome wide association studies with special focus on fine-mapping capabilities. A penalty function method that is simple to implement and capable of integrating functional annotation information into the estimation procedure, is proposed in this work. The idea is to use the prior distribution of the effect sizes explicitly as a penalty function. The estimates obtained are shown to be better correlated with the true effect sizes (in comparison with a few existing techniques). An increase in the positive and negative predictive value is demonstrated using Hapgen2 simulated data.