Speciation across the Earth driven by global cooling in terrestrial orchids.

Although climate change has been implicated as a major catalyst of diversification, its effects are thought to be inconsistent and much less pervasive than localized climate or the accumulation of species with time. Focused analyses of highly speciose clades are needed in order to disentangle the consequences of climate change, geography, and time. Here, we show that global cooling shapes the biodiversity of terrestrial orchids. Using a phylogeny of 1,475 species of Orchidoideae, the largest terrestrial orchid subfamily, we find that speciation rate is dependent on historic global cooling, not time, tropical distributions, elevation, variation in chromosome number, or other types of historic climate change. Relative to the gradual accumulation of species with time, models specifying speciation driven by historic global cooling are over 700 times more likely. Evidence ratios estimated for 212 other plant and animal groups reveal that terrestrial orchids represent one of the best-supported cases of temperature-spurred speciation yet reported. Employing >2.5 million georeferenced records, we find that global cooling drove contemporaneous diversification in each of the seven major orchid bioregions of the Earth. With current emphasis on understanding and predicting the immediate impacts of global warming, our study provides a clear case study of the long-term impacts of global climate change on biodiversity.

No phylogenetic evidence for angiosperm mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary.

The Cretaceous-Palaeogene mass extinction event (K-Pg) witnessed upwards of 75% of animal species going extinct, most notably among these are the non-avian dinosaurs. A major question in macroevolution is whether this extinction event influenced the rise of flowering plants (angiosperms). The fossil record suggests that the K-Pg event had a strong regional impact on angiosperms with up to 75% species extinctions, but only had a minor impact on the extinction rates of major lineages (families and orders). Phylogenetic evidence for angiosperm extinction dynamics through time remains unexplored. By analysing two angiosperm mega-phylogenies containing approximately 32 000-73 000 extant species, here we show relatively constant extinction rates throughout geological time and no evidence for a mass extinction at the K-Pg boundary. Despite high species-level extinction observed in the fossil record, our results support the macroevolutionary resilience of angiosperms to the K-Pg mass extinction event via survival of higher lineages.

Identifying the multiple drivers of cactus diversification.

Our understanding of the complexity of forces at play in the rise of major angiosperm lineages remains incomplete. The diversity and heterogeneous distribution of most angiosperm lineages is so extraordinary that it confounds our ability to identify simple drivers of diversification. Using machine learning in combination with phylogenetic modelling, we show that five separate abiotic and biotic variables significantly contribute to the diversification of Cactaceae. We reconstruct a comprehensive phylogeny, build a dataset of 39 abiotic and biotic variables, and predict the variables of central importance, while accounting for potential interactions between those variables. We use state-dependent diversification models to confirm that five abiotic and biotic variables shape diversification in the cactus family. Of highest importance are diurnal air temperature range, soil sand content and plant size, with lesser importance identified in isothermality and geographic range size. Interestingly, each of the estimated optimal conditions for abiotic variables were intermediate, indicating that cactus diversification is promoted by moderate, not extreme, climates. Our results reveal the potential primary drivers of cactus diversification, and the need to account for the complexity underlying the evolution of angiosperm lineages.