RESUMEN
Background: Since 1992, when recombinant hepatitis B vaccine was introduced in China, government health officials have used nationally representative serological surveys to monitor progress in prevention and control of hepatitis B. In 2020, we conducted the fourth seroepidemiological survey, which for the first time included medical evaluation of the clinical status of HBsAg positive subjects over the age of 15 and their medical management. We report survey results in comparison with the three previous surveys. Methods: Consistent with previous national surveys, the 2020 survey used a stratified, three-stage cluster random sampling method to select for evaluation 1-69-year-olds in 120 national disease surveillance points. Blood samples were tested for HBsAg, anti-HBV surface antigen (anti-HBs), and anti-HBV core antigen (anti-HBc) in the National Hepatitis Laboratory of the Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention of China CDC. HBsAg positive subjects aged ≥15-year were evaluated for evidence of liver disease, and through face-to-face questionnaire-based survey, we determined the healthcare management cascade of HBV-infected individuals. Findings: HBsAg prevalence in 1-69-year-olds was 5.86%; in children 1-4 years of age, seroprevalence was 0.30%; 75 million people were living with HBV nationwide. Among HBsAg-positive individuals 15 years and older, expert medical examination found that 78.03% were HBsAg carriers with no evidence of liver damage, 19.63% had chronic HBV with liver enzyme abnormalities, 0.84% had evidence of cirrhosis, and 0.15% had evidence of liver cancer. 59.78% of HBsAg + individuals were aware that they were positive before the survey, 30 million were unaware; 38.25% of those who knew they were positive (17 million) had medical indications for antiviral treatment, and 17.33% of these individuals (3 million) were being treated with antivirals. Interpretation: The decline in HBsAg prevalence in the general population, from 9.72% in 1992 to 5.86% in 2020, and in 1-4-year-olds from 9.67% in 1992 to 0.30% in 2020, shows progress that continues on track toward WHO targets for prevention of new infections. Implementation of acceptable strategies to identify infected individuals and offer long-term medical monitoring and management will be important to prevent complications from hepatitis B infection and for meeting WHO cascade-of-care targets. Funding: The study was funded by the Major Science and Technology Special Project of China's 13th 5-Year Plan (grant no. 2017ZX10105015); Central finance-operation of public health emergency response mechanism of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (131031001000200001, 102393220020010000017).
RESUMEN
Background/Aims@#Existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models are derived mainly from pretreatment or early on-treatment parameters. We reassessed the dynamic changes in the performance of 17 HCC models in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) during long-term antiviral therapy (AVT). @*Methods@#Among 987 CHB patients administered long-term entecavir therapy, 660 patients had 8 years of follow-up data. Model scores were calculated using on-treatment values at 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, and 5 years of AVT to predict threeyear HCC occurrence. Model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). The original model cutoffs to distinguish different levels of HCC risk were evaluated by the log-rank test. @*Results@#The AUROCs of the 17 HCC models varied from 0.51 to 0.78 when using on-treatment scores from years 2.5 to 5. Models with a cirrhosis variable showed numerically higher AUROCs (pooled at 0.65–0.73 for treated, untreated, or mixed treatment models) than models without (treated or mixed models: 0.61–0.68; untreated models: 0.51–0.59). Stratification into low, intermediate, and high-risk levels using the original cutoff values could no longer reflect the true HCC incidence using scores after 3.5 years of AVT for models without cirrhosis and after 4 years of AVT for models with cirrhosis. @*Conclusions@#The performance of existing HCC prediction models, especially models without the cirrhosis variable, decreased in CHB patients on long-term AVT. The optimization of existing models or the development of novel models for better HCC prediction during long-term AVT is warranted.