α-FAtE: A new predictive score of response to atezolizumab plus bevacizumab for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma.

Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (AB) and lenvatinib can be alternatively used as first-line systemic treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, no direct comparison of the two regimens has been performed in randomized clinical trials, making the identification of baseline differential predictors of response of major relevance to tailor the best therapeutic option to each patient. Baseline clinical and laboratory characteristics of real-world AB-treated HCC patients were analyzed in uni- and multivariate analyses to find potential prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). Significant variables were incorporated in a composite score (α-FAtE) and it was tested for specificity and sensitivity in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and in multivariate analysis for OS. The score was applied in uni- and multivariate analyses for OS of a comparable lenvatinib-treated HCC population. Finally, comparison between treatments was performed in patients with low and high α-FAtE scores and predictivity estimated by interaction analysis. Time-to-progression (TTP) was a secondary endpoint. OS of AB-treated HCC patients was statistically longer in those with α-fetoprotein <400 ng/mL (HR 0.62, p = .0407), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) <125 IU/L (HR 0.52, p = .0189) and eosinophil count ≥70/µL (HR 0.46, p = .0013). The α-FAtE score was generated by the sum of single points attributed to each variable among the above reported. In ROC curve analysis, superior sensitivity and specificity were achieved by the score compared to individual variables (AUC 0.794, p < .02). Patients with high score had longer OS (HR 0.44, p = .0009) and TTP (HR 0.34, p < .0001) compared to low score if treated with AB, but not with lenvatinib. Overall, AB was superior to lenvatinib in high score patients (HR 0.55, p = .0043) and inferior in low score ones (HR 1.75, p = .0227). At interaction test, low α-FAtE score resulted as negative predictive factor of response to AB (p = .0004). In conclusion, α-FAtE is a novel prognostic and predictive score of response to first-line AB for HCC patients that, if validated in prospective studies, could drive therapeutic choice between lenvatinib and AB.

Accuracy of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis Test in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Its Clinical Implications.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The diagnostic performance of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score (NFS) is poor in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We determined the usefulness of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test in patients with T2DM. METHODS: A total of 1228 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were enrolled. The diagnostic performance of the ELF test for predicting advanced fibrosis in participants with or without T2DM was evaluated in comparison with the FIB-4 index and NFS. RESULTS: Overall, the area under the curve of the ELF test for predicting advanced fibrosis was greater (0.828) than that of the FIB-4 index (0.727) and NFS (0.733). The diagnostic performance of the ELF test (area under the curve, 0.820) was also superior to that of the FIB-4 index (0.698) and NFS (0.700) in patients with T2DM. With the low cutoff values for each noninvasive test, the ELF test provided an acceptable false negative rate (cutoff value 9.8, 6.7%) in this population, unlike the FIB-4 index (1.30, 14.5%) and NFS (-1.455, 12.4%). After propensity score matching to avoid selection bias including age, sex, body mass index, and the prevalence of advanced fibrosis, the ELF test with a low cutoff value showed a high sensitivity (≥91.4%) and a high negative predictive value (≥96.8%), irrespective of the presence or absence of T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: The high diagnostic performance of the ELF test for predicting advanced fibrosis in individuals with or without T2DM could address an unmet medical need for accurate assessment of liver fibrosis in patients with diabetes and NAFLD.

Regional Differences in Clinical Presentation and Prognosis of Patients With Post-Sustained Virologic Response Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Widespread use of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus infection has been paralleled with increased numbers of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving sustained virologic response (post-SVR HCC) worldwide. Few data compare regional differences in the presentation and prognosis of patients with post-SVR HCC. METHODS: We identified patients with advanced fibrosis (F3/F4) who developed incident post-SVR HCC between March 2015 and October 2021 from 30 sites in Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. We compared patient demographics, liver dysfunction, and tumor burden by region. We compared overall survival by region using Kaplan-Meier analysis and identified factors associated with survival using multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 8796 patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved SVR, 583 (6.6%) developed incident HCC. There was marked regional variation in the proportion of patients detected by surveillance (range: 59.5%-100%), median maximum tumor diameter (range, 1.8-5.0 cm), and the proportion with multinodular HCC (range, 15.4%-60.8%). The prognosis of patients highly varied by region (hazard ratio range, 1.82-9.92), with the highest survival rates in East Asia, North America, and South America, and the lowest survival rates in the Middle East and South Asia. After adjusting for geographic region, HCC surveillance was associated with early stage detection (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 71.0% vs 21.3%; P < .0001) and lower mortality rates (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.18-0.46). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical characteristics, including early stage detection, and prognosis of post-SVR HCC differed significantly across geographic regions. Surveillance utilization appears to be a high-yield intervention target to improve prognosis among patients with post-SVR HCC globally.

Effect of previous infection with hepatitis B virus on the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained virologic response in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection.

Previous infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV), which is assessed by HBV core antibody (HBcAb) or surface antibody (HBsAb) titres, has reportedly been associated with an increased risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the influence of previous HBV infection on the incidence of HCC in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who achieved eradication of HCV, that is sustained virologic response (SVR). Both HBcAb and HBsAb were measured in a total of 1214 patients with HCV infection who had not been coinfected with HBV, as determined by both negative HBs antigen and HBV DNA, and in whom SVR was confirmed. Patients were followed up for a median of 5.7 years, and the incidence of post-SVR HCC was compared based on HBcAb and/or HBsAb. In both univariate and multivariate analyses, the incidence of post-SVR HCC did not differ based on the presence of HBcAb or HBsAb. In conclusion, previous HBV infection has no impact on the incidence of HCC in patients with HCV after SVR.

Antiviral therapy substantially reduces HCC risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B infection in the indeterminate phase.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HCC risk in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is higher in the indeterminate phase compared with the inactive phase. However, it is unclear if antiviral therapy reduces HCC risk in this population. We aimed to evaluate the association between antiviral therapy and HCC risk in the indeterminate phase. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We analyzed 855 adult (59% male), treatment-naïve patients with CHB infection without advanced fibrosis in the indeterminate phase at 14 centers (USA, Europe, and Asia). Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to balance the treated (n = 405) and untreated (n = 450) groups. The primary outcome was HCC development. The mean age was 46±13 years, the median alanine transaminase was 38 (interquartile range, 24-52) U/L, the mean HBV DNA was 4.5±2.1 log 10 IU/mL, and 20% were HBeAg positive. The 2 groups were similar after IPTW. After IPTW (n = 819), the 5-, 10-, and 15-year cumulative HCC incidence was 3%, 4%, and 9% among treated patients (n = 394) versus 3%, 15%, and 19%, among untreated patients (n = 425), respectively ( p = 0.02), with consistent findings in subgroup analyses for age >35 years, males, HBeAg positive, HBV DNA>1000 IU/mL, and alanine transaminase

Severe hepatic steatosis promotes increased liver stiffness in the early stages of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The predictors of progression from steatosis to more advanced stages of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) remain unclear. We evaluated the association between the quantity of hepatic steatosis and longitudinal changes in liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) using magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) in patients with MASLD. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed patients with MASLD who underwent at least two serial MRE and magnetic resonance imaging-based proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) examinations at least 1 year apart. Fine-Gray competitive proportional hazard regression was used to identify LSM progression and regression factors. RESULTS: A total of 471 patients were enrolled. Factors linked to LSM progression were steatosis grade 3 (MRI-PDFF ≥17.1%, adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.597; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.483-4.547) and albumin-bilirubin grade 2 or 3 (aHR 2.790; 95% CI 1.284-6.091), while the only factor linked to LSM regression was % decrease rate of MRI-PDFF ≥5% (aHR 2.781; 95% CI 1.584-4.883). Steatosis grade 3 correlated with a higher incidence rate of LSM progression than steatosis grade 1 (MRI-PDFF <11.3%) in patients with LSM stage 0 (<2.5 kilopascal [kPa]), and a % annual decrease rate of MRI-PDFF ≥5% correlated with a higher incidence rate of LSM regression than that of MRI-PDFF >-5% and <5% in patients with LSM stage 1 or 2-4 (≥2.5 kPa). CONCLUSIONS: Severe hepatic steatosis was linked to significant LSM progression in patients with MASLD and low LSM (<2.5 kPa).

Comparison of prognostic impact of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab versus lenvatinib in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study goal was to compare the outcomes of patients with intermediate-stage (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer [BCLC]-B) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atezo/Bev) or lenvatinib (LEN) as first-line systemic therapy. METHODS: A total of 358 patients with BCLC-B HCC treated with Atezo/Bev (n = 177) or LEN (n = 181) as first-line systemic therapy were included. RESULTS: The median progression-free survival (PFS) times in the Atezo/Bev and LEN groups were 10.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.8-12.6) and 7.3 months (95% CI, 6.3-8.5), respectively (p = .019). In the propensity score-matched cohort, the median PFS times in the Atezo/Bev (n = 151) and LEN (n = 151) groups were 10.2 months (95% CI, 7.0-12.3) and 6.9 months (95% CI, 5.9-8.1), respectively (p = .020). Restricted mean survival times of PFS were significantly higher in the Atezo/Bev group than in the LEN group at landmarks of 12 and 18 months (p = .031 and .012, respectively). In a subgroup analysis of patients with HCC beyond the up-to-seven criteria, the median PFS times in the Atezo/Bev (n = 134) and LEN (n = 117) groups were 10.5 months (95% CI, 7.0-11.8) and 6.3 months (95% CI, 5.5-7.3), respectively (p = .044). CONCLUSIONS: The use of Atezo/Bev as first-line systemic therapy in patients with BCLC-B HCC is expected to result in good PFS.

Impact of body mass index on the prognosis of unresectable HCC patients receiving first-line Lenvatinib or atezolizumab plus bevacizumab.

INTRODUCTION: Overweight is a negative prognostic factor in the general population in the long term. However, the role of body mass index (BMI) in the short-mid term in advanced tumours is unclear. The present analysis investigates the role of BMI weight classes in a large sample of patients affected by HCC and receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line treatment. METHODS AND MATERIAL: The cohort included consecutive patients affected by BCLC-c and BCLC-B HCC patients from a multicenter international study group who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line therapy. Population was stratified according to the BMI in under-, over- and normal-weight according to the conventional thresholds. The primary objective of the study was to evaluate the prognostic and predictive impact of BMI in patients affected by advanced or intermediate HCC. Survival curves were estimated using the product-limit method of Kaplan-Meier. The role of stratification factors was analysed with log-rank tests. RESULTS: 1292 consecutive patients with HCC were analysed. 466 (36%) patients were treated with lenvatinib and 826 (64%) patients were treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. In the atezolizumab plus bevacizumab arm, 510 (62%) patients were normal-weight, 52 (6%) underweight and 264 (32%) overweight. At the univariate analysis for OS, underweight patients had significantly shorter OS compared to normal-weight patients, whereas no differences were found between normal-weight versus overweight. Multivariate analysis confirmed that underweight patients had significantly shorter OS compared to normal-weight patients (HR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.0-2.8; p = .0323). In the lenvatinib arm, 26 patients (5.6%) were categorized as underweight, 256 (54.9%) as normal-weight, and 184 (39.5%) as overweight. At the univariate analysis for OS, no significant differences were found between normal-weight versus underweight and between normal-weight versus overweight, which was confirmed at multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Our analysis highlighted a prognostic role of BMI in a cohort of patients with advanced HCC who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, while no prognostic role for low BMI was apparent in patients who received lenvatinib.

A comparative study of hepatic steatosis using two different qualitative ultrasound techniques measured based on magnetic resonance imaging-derived proton density fat fraction.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of attenuation measurement (ATT; dual-frequency method) and improved algorithm of ATT (iATT; reference method) for the assessment of hepatic steatosis using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived proton density fat fraction (PDFF) as the reference standard. METHODS: We prospectively analyzed 427 patients with chronic liver disease who underwent ATT, iATT, or MRI-derived PDFF. Correlation coefficients were analyzed, and diagnostic values were evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The steatosis grade was categorized as S0 (<5.2%), S1 (≥5.2%, <11.3%), S2 (≥11.3%, <17.1%), and S3 (≥17.1%) according to MRI-derived PDFF values. RESULTS: The median ATT and iATT values were 0.61 dB/cm/MHz (interquartile range 0.55-0.67 dB/cm/MHz) and 0.66 dB/cm/MHz (interquartile range 0.57-0.77 dB/cm/MHz). ATT and iATT values increased significantly as the steatosis grade increased in the order S0, S1, S2, and S3 (p < 0.001). The correlation coefficients between ATT or iATT values and MRI-derived PDFF values were 0.533 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.477-0.610) and 0.803 (95% CI 0.766-0.834), with a significant difference between them (p < 0.001). For the detection of hepatic steatosis of ≥S1, ≥S2, and ≥S3, iATT yielded AUROCs of 0.926 (95% CI 0.901-0.951), 0.913 (95% CI 0.885-0.941), and 0.902 (95% CI 0.869-0.935), with significantly higher AUROC values than for ATT (p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: iATT showed excellent diagnostic performance for hepatic steatosis, and was strongly correlated with MRI-derived PDFF, with AUROCs of ≥0.900.

Diagnostic performance of shear wave measurement in the detection of hepatic fibrosis: A multicenter prospective study.

AIM: This study aimed to establish the shear wave measurement (SWM) cut-off value for each fibrosis stage using magnetic resonance (MR) elastography values as a reference standard. METHODS: We prospectively analyzed 594 patients with chronic liver disease who underwent SWM and MR elastography. Correlation coefficients (were analyzed, and the diagnostic value was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Liver stiffness was categorized by MR elastography as F0 (<2.61 kPa), F1 (≥2.61 kPa, <2.97 kPa, any fibrosis), F2 (≥2.97 kPa, <3.62 kPa, significant fibrosis), F3 (≥3.62 kPa, <4.62 kPa, advanced fibrosis), or F4 (≥4.62 kPa, cirrhosis). RESULTS: The median SWM values increased significantly with increasing fibrosis stage (p < 0.001). The correlation coefficient between SWM and MR elastography values was 0.793 (95% confidence interval 0.761-0.821). The correlation coefficients between SWM and MR elastography values significantly decreased with increasing body mass index and skin-capsular distance; skin-capsular distance values were associated with significant differences in sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, or positive predictive value, whereas body mass index values were not. The best cut-off values for any fibrosis, significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis were 6.18, 7.09, 8.05, and 10.89 kPa, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This multicenter study in a large number of patients established SWM cut-off values for different degrees of fibrosis in chronic liver diseases using MR elastography as a reference standard. It is expected that these cut-off values will be applied to liver diseases in the future.

Kinetics of the hepatitis B core-related antigen and treatment responses in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with tenofovir alafenamide.

AIM: An association between hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) kinetics and hepatocarcinogenesis during nucleoside (t)id analog (NA) treatment has recently been reported. HBcrAg kinetics and factors associated with HBcrAg response during tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) administration remain unclear. In this multicenter retrospective study, we aimed to clarify the efficacy and safety of TAF in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B, focusing on the reduction in HBcrAg levels. METHODS: Patients were treated with TAF monotherapy for 96 weeks, and the kinetics of HBcrAg during treatment and the factors associated with HBcrAg response (defined as a change in HBcrAg of -1 log IU/mL from baseline) were evaluated. RESULTS: The study population comprised 241 patients, 36.9% of whom were HBeAg-positive. The median baseline HBcrAg level was 4.7 log IU/mL. The median change in HBcrAg from baseline was -1.1 log IU/mL at 96 weeks after treatment. The HBcrAg response rate at 96 weeks was 56.6% (43/76). Multivariate analysis revealed high alanine transaminase level as an independent baseline factor associated with HBcrAg response at 96 weeks of treatment (p = 4.53 × 10-6). No correlation was found between the HBcrAg and hepatitis B surface antigen kinetics in patients treated with TAF monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: In TAF monotherapy for patients with chronic hepatitis B, HBcrAg levels were significantly decreased and baseline alanine transaminase level is an important factor associated with HBcrAg reduction. As no correlation was found between HBcrAg and reduced hepatitis B surface antigen levels in this study, HBcrAg kinetics in addition to hepatitis B surface antigen may need to be monitored during TAF treatment.

Validation study of age-independent fibrosis score (Fibrosis-3 index) in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Because the accuracy of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index for predicting liver fibrosis changes with age, the need for different cut-offs in various age groups has frequently been discussed. We developed the age-independent score, the Fibrosis-3 (FIB-3) index, and have shown its usefulness in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). This study aimed to validate the diagnostic ability of the FIB-3 index to predict fibrosis progression using a large new patient cohort. METHODS: The ability of the FIB-3 index to predict liver fibrosis was analyzed by comparing it with that of the FIB-4 index using data from 1398 patients with MASLD enrolled in the Asia-based clinical outcome NAFLD study. RESULTS: The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting fibrosis stage F3 or higher were not different between the FIB-3 and FIB-4 indices in the entire cohort. Using the single ideal cut-offs of the indices (3.41 for FIB-3 index and 2.01 for FIB-4 index), the predictive accuracy of the FIB-3 index was not significantly different from that of the FIB-4 index among patients aged <60 years; however, the accuracy of the FIB-3 index was significantly higher than that of the FIB-4 index in those aged ≥60 years (0.645 and 0.529, respectively; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The high ability of the FIB-3 index with a single cut-off to predict liver fibrosis in patients with MASLD was confirmed. The FIB-3 index could serve as a useful tool for assessing liver fibrosis regardless of age.

Comparative analysis of the therapeutic outcomes of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and lenvatinib for hepatocellular carcinoma patients aged 80 years and older: Multicenter study.

AIM: Elderly patients are believed to have a reduced immune capacity, which may make immunotherapy less effective. The aim of this study was to compare the therapeutic outcome of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atez/Bev) and lenvatinib (LEN) for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients aged 80 years and older. METHODS: From March 2018 to July 2022, 170 and 92 elderly patients who received LEN and Atez/Bev as first-line treatment, respectively, were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS: The median ages of the Atez/Bev and LEN groups were 83.0 (8.01-86.0) and 83.0 (82.0-86.0) years (p = 0.3), respectively. Men accounted for approximately 70% of the patients in both groups. The objective response rate was 35.9% in the LEN group and 33.7% in the Atez/Bev group (p = 0.8), whereas the disease control rates in the LEN and Atez/Bev groups were 62.9% and 63.0%, respectively (p = 1.0). The median progression-free survival (PFS) in the LEN and Atez/Bev groups was 6.3 and 7.2 months, respectively, which were not significantly different (p = 0.2). The median overall survival (OS) was 17.9 months in the LEN group and 14.0 months in the Atez/Bev group. This difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.7). In multivariate analyses, the choice of treatment (LEN vs. Atez/Bev) showed no association with PFS or OS. The Atez/Bev group had a significantly higher rate of postprogression treatment (59.0% vs. 35.7%, p = 0.01) and a lower rate of discontinuation due to adverse events (69 [40.6%] vs. 19 [20.7%], p < 0.001) compared to the LEN group. CONCLUSIONS: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab showed comparable effectiveness to LEN in HCC patients aged 80 years and older. Given the results of postprogression treatment and discontinuation due to adverse events, Atez/Bev could serve as a first-line treatment even for elderly HCC patients.

mADRES predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with hepatitis C virus who achieved sustained virological response.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The study aims to develop a novel predictive model including the fibrosis (FIB)-3 index for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. METHODS: This study included 2529 patients in whom HCV was eradicated with DAA therapy. The after DAA recommendation for surveillance (ADRES) score, which is based on sex, FIB-4 index, and α-fetoprotein, was used to predict HCC development. We developed a modified ADRES (mADRES) score, in which the FIB-4 index was replaced by the FIB-3 index, and evaluated its usefulness in predicting HCC development compared with the ADRES score. RESULTS: In the training set (n = 1770), multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazards modeling showed that male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-3.01), FIB-3 index (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.28-1.45), and α-fetoprotein (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.07) are independently associated with HCC development. The incidence of HCC differed significantly by ADRES or mADRES score in multiple comparisons. Univariate Cox proportional hazards models showed that compared with the mADRES score 0 group, the HR for HCC development was 2.07 (95% CI, 1.02-4.19) for the mADRES score 1 group, 11.37 (95% CI, 5.80-22.27) for the mADRES score 2 group, and 21.95 (95% CI, 10.17-47.38) for the mADRES score 3 group. Similar results were obtained for mADRES score but not for ADRES score in the validation set (n = 759). CONCLUSION: The mADRES score is useful for predicting HCC development after SVR.

Changes in clinical outcomes in Japanese patients with hepatocellular carcinoma due to hepatitis C virus following the development of direct-acting antiviral agents.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have been accessible in Japan since 2014. The aim of this study is to compare how the prognosis of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCV-HCC) changed before and after DAA development. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 1949 Japanese HCV-HCC patients from January 2000 to January 2023 categorized them into pre-DAA (before 2013, n = 1169) and post-DAA (after 2014, n = 780) groups. Changes in clinical features and prognosis were assessed. RESULTS: Despite no significant differences in BCLC stage between groups, the post-DAA group exhibited higher rates of sustained virological response (SVR) (45.6% vs. 9.8%), older age (73 vs 69 years), lower levels of AST (40 vs 56 IU/L), ALT (31 vs 46 IU/L), and AFP (11.7 vs 23.6 ng/mL), higher platelet count (13.5 vs 10.8 × 104/µL), better prothrombin time (88.0% vs 81.9%), and better ALBI score (-2.54 vs -2.36) (all P < 0.001). The post-DAA group also showed higher rates of curative treatments (74.1% vs 65.2%) and significantly improved recurrence-free survival (median 2.8 vs 2.1 years). Adjusted for inverse probability weighting, overall survival was superior in the post-DAA group (median 7.4 vs 5.6 years, P < 0.001). Subanalysis within the post-DAA group revealed significantly shorter overall survival for patients without SVR (median 4.8 years vs NA vs NA) compared to pre-SVR or post-SVR patients (both P < 0.001). No significant difference in OS was observed between the pre-SVR and post-SVR groups (P = 1.0). CONCLUSION: The development of DAA therapy has dramatically improved the prognosis of HCV-HCC patients.

Comparison of six hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in Japanese patients after sustained virologic response undergoing rigorous surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: While several predictive models for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been proposed, including those for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR), the best model may differ between regions. We compared the ability of six reported models to stratify the risk of post-SVR HCC in Japan, where rigorous surveillance and early detection of HCC is common. METHODS: A total of 6048 patients with no history of HCC who achieved SVR by oral direct-acting antiviral drugs were enrolled in this nationwide study. Patients continued HCC surveillance every 6 months after SVR. The incidence of post-SVR HCC was compared between risk groups using the aMAP score, FIB-4 index, Tahata model, GAF4 criteria, GES score, and ADRES score. RESULTS: During the observation period with a median duration of 4.0 years after SVR, post-SVR HCC developed in 332 patients (5.5%). All six models performed significantly at stratifying the incidence of HCC. However, Harrell's C-index was below 0.8 for all models (range, 0.660-0.748), indicating insufficient stratification ability. CONCLUSION: Although all six proposed models demonstrated a good ability to predict the development of post-SVR HCC, their ability to stratify the risk of post-SVRHCC was unsatisfactory. Further studies are necessary to identify the best model for assessing the risk of post-SVR HCC in regions where early detection of HCC is common.

Mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with tenofovir or entecavir: A multinational study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The benefits of entecavir (ETV) versus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in reducing the development of chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma remain controversial. Whether mortality rates differ between patients with CHB treated with ETV and those treated with TDF is unclear. METHODS: A total of 2542 patients with CHB treated with either ETV or TDF were recruited from a multinational cohort. A 1:1 propensity score matching was performed to balance the differences in baseline characteristics between the two patient groups. We aimed to compare the all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality between patients receiving ETV and those receiving TDF. RESULTS: The annual incidence of all-cause mortality in the entire cohort was 1.0/100 person-years (follow-up, 15 757.5 person-years). Patients who received TDF were younger and had a higher body mass index, platelet count, hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid levels, and proportion of hepatitis B e-antigen seropositivity than those who received ETV. The factors associated with all-cause mortality were fibrosis-4 index > 6.5 (hazard ratio [HR]/confidence interval [CI]: 3.13/2.15-4.54, P < 0.001), age per year increase (HR/CI: 1.05/1.04-1.07, P < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level per U/L increase (HR/CI: 0.997/0.996-0.999, P = 0.003), and γ-glutamyl transferase level per U/L increase (HR/CI: 1.002/1.001-1.003, P < 0.001). No significant difference in all-cause mortality was observed between the ETV and TDF groups (log-rank test, P = 0.69). After propensity score matching, no significant differences in all-cause, liver-related, or non-liver-related mortality were observed between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term outcomes of all-cause mortality and liver-related and non-liver-related mortality did not differ between patients treated with ETV and those receiving TDF.

Predictability of noninvasive liver fibrosis score for cardiac events in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have a higher risk of cardiac events. However, although the severity of liver fibrosis is related to worsening prognosis in patients with NAFLD, it is unclear whether the noninvasive liver fibrosis score has a predictive value for cardiac events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated 4071 patients with NAFLD diagnosed using ultrasonography. Liver fibrosis was assessed and divided into three groups based on the Fibrosis-4 (FIB4) index and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). The primary outcome of this study was major adverse cardiac events (MACE), including cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and revascularization due to coronary artery disease. The median age of the evaluated patients was 61 (52-69) years, and 2201 (54.1%) were male. During the median follow-up period of 6.6 years, 179 (4.4%) patients experienced MACE. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that MACE increased progressively with the FIB4 index (log-rank, p < 0.001) and NFS (log-rank, p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis showed that the higher the FIB4 index, the higher the risk for MACE (low group as reference vs. intermediate group, hazard ratio [HR]: 1.860 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.326-2.610; p < 0.001]; vs. high group, HR:3.325 [95% CI, 2.017-5.479; p < 0.001]), as well as NFS (low NFS group as reference vs. intermediate group, HR: 1.938 [95% CI, 1.391-2.699; p < 0.001]; vs. high group, HR: 3.492 [95% CI, 1.997-6.105; p < 0.001]). CONCLUSIONS: The FIB4 index and NFS are associated with the probability of MACE in patients with NAFLD. CLINICAL TRIALS: The study design was approved by the ethics review board of Ogaki Municipal Hospital (approval number: 20221124-12, registration date: November 28th, 2022). https://www.ogaki-mh.jp/chiken/kenkyu.html.

Machine learning for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development after the eradication of hepatitis C virus with antivirals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Accurate risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving a sustained viral response (SVR) is necessary for optimal surveillance. We aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of HCC after achieving an SVR in individual patients. METHODS: In this multicenter cohort study, 1742 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved an SVR were enrolled. Five ML models were developed including DeepSurv, gradient boosting survival analysis, random survival forest (RSF), survival support vector machine, and a conventional Cox proportional hazard model. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel' c-index and was externally validated in an independent cohort (977 patients). RESULTS: During the mean observation period of 5.4 years, 122 patients developed HCC (83 in the derivation cohort and 39 in the external validation cohort). The RSF model showed the best discrimination ability using seven parameters at the achievement of an SVR with a c-index of 0.839 in the external validation cohort and a high discriminative ability when the patients were categorized into three risk groups (P <0.001). Furthermore, this RSF model enabled the generation of an individualized predictive curve for HCC occurrence for each patient with an app available online. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated an RSF model with good predictive performance for the risk of HCC after an SVR. The application of this novel model is available on the website. This model could provide the data to consider an effective surveillance method. Further studies are needed to make recommendations for surveillance policies tailored to the medical situation in each country. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: A novel prediction model for HCC occurrence in patients after hepatitis C virus eradication was developed using machine learning algorithms. This model, using seven commonly measured parameters, has been shown to have a good predictive ability for HCC development and could provide a personalized surveillance system.

Poor Diagnostic Efficacy of Noninvasive Tests for Advanced Fibrosis in Obese or Younger Than 60 Diabetic NAFLD patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Serum-based noninvasive tests (NITs) have been widely used to assess liver fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, the diagnostic efficacy of NITs across ranges of age, body mass index (BMI), and presence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) may vary and have not been well-characterized. METHODS: We analyzed 1489 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 6 centers in Japan, Taiwan, and Korea. Using histology as the gold standard, we compared the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROCs) of Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), and the new Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS), with a focus on performance in subgroups as stratified by age, BMI, and the presence of T2DM. RESULTS: By histology, 44.0% of the overall cohort (655/1489) had F2-4, and 20.6% (307/1489) had F3-4 fibrosis. FIB-4 had the highest AUROCs for both F2-4 (0.701 vs NFS 0.676 and HFS 0.682, P = .001) and F3-4 (0.767 vs NFS 0.736 and HFS 0.752, P = .002). However, for F3-4 fibrosis, the AUROCs of all 3 NITs were generally higher in older (>60 years), nonobese (BMI <25 kg/m2), and non-diabetic patients, although overall the best performance was observed with FIB-4 among nonobese (BMI<25) diabetic patients (AUROC, 0.92). The worst performance was observed in younger patients with T2DM for all NITs including FIB-4 (AUROC, 0.63-0.66). CONCLUSIONS: FIB-4 had higher diagnostic efficacy for F3-4 than NFS or HFS, but this varied greatly by age, BMI, and T2DM, with better performance in older, nonobese, and nondiabetic patients. However, all NITs including FIB-4 had unacceptably poor performance in young or obese diabetic patients.